“Trouble will come, but you do not have to give it a chair to sit on.”- African proverb

Sadly the nation is being forced to watch a fierce and diversionary quarrel over the 2027 elections with just a little under two years to get there. Just see how the Tinubu administration is scraping the shallow bottom of a dented bottom to fish out palliatives and promises and attempting to sell them as achievements in two years. The main opposition is going crazy over what it claims is an engineered exodus. Other politicians are attempting to cobble together another vessel of egos and  personal ambitions. The nation watches a desperate frenzy over its troubled future. A people watch, with dejection and anger, as politicians expose the lie that Nigerian democracy is about the people.

 With two years to go, the general game plan, if indeed there is one, appears to be to defeat the opposition before the contest commences. APC has turned transactional politics into a grand strategy with a limited goal of mopping up all opportunists. It is the favourite destination for all comers, and those who migrate with a few PDP and LP skulls get choice places, at least for now. PDP screams victimization, hoping the nation will ignore its record in serial self-mutilation. There is nothing of substance in the firmaments, except political skeletons speaking volumes of politicians in a country where power is most addictive. This current picture will change and mutate as politicians play their games and Nigerian voters make up their minds. The journey to 2027 will be eventful and challenging for Nigerians.

 The APC appears bent on boosting its appearance only with booty from an anaemic opposition. It has been stampeded into a battle it has no business fighting, with two years of tough governance to go. It has sole responsibility for showing an impressive scorecard while fighting off an opposition sharpening its knives daily with a litany of governance failures. It is making elementary mistakes, including a seeming arrogance over its records; sustaining persistently poor engagement processes; faulty assumptions that feeding on the opposition alone will give it the strength to fight and win the election; creating the most personalized presidency which has every circle of power trembling, and ignoring the widespread perception that it is elevating transactional politics into the highest art form. Its biggest liability is a President who has very poor rating in most parts of the country.

 The ruling party could boost its chances if it does not field President Tinubu in 2027, choosing instead to field a younger, healthier and more ambitious politician with fairly clean personal records. This seems very unlikely, such is the larger-than-life presence of President Tinubu in the party. The President himself may not give the idea of grooming a successor and giving his party a new lease of life a favourable thought. If PBAT will be its candidate, the APC has to improve its understanding and exploitation of fault lines into which it will need to pour unheard-of fortunes to buy votes and voters. Ditching northern Muslims for northern Christians will be a risky strategy, but quite possibly the only option in the North. The party is also a poor student in reading the dynamics of opportunistic and transactional politics. Its bursting haul of politicians will be a major threat to its ambition if it fails to appreciate the complexities of managing ambitions and sharing largesse among politicians solely motivated by personal interests. Its assets could become its liabilities at precisely the point where neither transaction nor threat will work.

 The North will have a major influence in the outcome of the elections. It is the region that is most vulnerable to exploitation of fault lines and its poverty which trails it all the way to polling booths. The party must work hard to avoid a repeat of 2015 when the ruling party confronted an entire region massed against it. The South West will rally around him marginally if the main opposition fields a Northerner against him, but the ambivalence of this region should cause sleepless nights. The influence of Chief Spoiler Wike will weaken or grow, depending on the opposition’s response to the disarray in the South-South which will likely stabilize around its basic interests, not of an affluent appendage. LP will be decimated without Obi, and squeezed even further with him as its candidate. Obi’s ambition is now bigger than the LP, but he risks serious reduction as a politician if he takes decisions that alienate his followers. Of all the major politicians, none is more a captive of his core constituency than Obi. The South East is eager to recover from its multi-dimensional personality and assume a position in national leadership which reflects its passion for equity. It is likely to be available for a deal which gives it real power, and puts an end to a perennial sulking region on the margins.

 Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar seems to have the biggest dilemma. He is too weak to take on Tinubu’s second term ambitions, and too big to fit into schemes of other politicians angling for platforms that will actualize their personal ambitions. To leave the PDP (again) and seek a platform elsewhere will involve massive expenditure in energy and resources, assets that will be possessed in greater abundance in camps of those who will resist him as candidate. He could renounce the ambition to run (again) and engineer a reverse stampede into the PDP, as well as spearhead a Nigerian political re-engineering process. Politicians in the mold of the Waziri are very difficult to convince that there are edifying options to aspiring to be President in a country stuck with recycling its politicians.

The PDP is bleeding from massive onslaught of the governing party. Its biggest asset is Atiku, but he is also its biggest liability. His pre-eminent position in the party provides a reason for many real and contrived grievances. It is unlikely that PDP, with Atiku at the helm, will enter into an arrangement that gives it a role as second fiddle. Other parties could join PDP in a coalition of sorts, but some of them could ask for his ambition as a price. If the PDP could fix itself and take on the APC, it would not have bothered  with pandering to interests that are at worst dubious, and at best delusional. This party that once bestrode the nation is at risk of history recording it as the largest contributor to APC’s success in 2027.

 There are, of course, many other factors that will determine the outcome of the 2027 elections. The terrain is also liable to change dramatically when other key factors enter the fray, and calculations fail to provide the correct outcomes. A few of the factors that will sustain their value, however, will remain significant. First, the perceptions of the record of the APC administration, which still has almost two years to go will be a critical factor. Second, the nature and resilience of the opposition will be decisive. Third, geo-politics and identity politics will still be strong. Four, integrity of the elections is central. The disturbing encroachment of the executive arm of government’s influence into all in arms and institutions of governance must be curtailed if democracy is to survive in Nigeria. At all cost, the 2027 elections must be credible.

As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration approached its second anniversary, the atmosphere was charged with political activity. Officials from his administration made efforts to account for their performance, but these efforts were overshadowed by a loud call for the President’s second term. Supporters, high-ranking party officials, even the All Progressives Congress governors and federal government officials were preponderantly focused on capturing more states and diminishing opposition parties than in showcasing their achievements. 

If Tinubu opposed this distraction, he did not make it known. He prominently welcomed defectors into the APC and, during a recent caucus meeting he hosted at the seat of government, he vigorously addressed concerns that Nigeria was becoming a one-party state under his leadership. Instead of reassuring citizens about the state of democracy, his comments fell short of providing comfort.

He eventually celebrated the second anniversary of his administration which featured a speech that received more criticism than praise. In his address, the President highlighted the achievements of his administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda and reiterated his commitment to tackling economic instability, improving nationwide security, reducing corruption, reforming governance, and lifting Nigerians out of poverty.

Tinubu claimed that the economic and overall situation he inherited demanded a redirection of the country’s affairs. He cited the removal of fuel subsidies and the establishment of multiple foreign exchange windows as key initiatives. Halfway through his first term, Tinubu reflected on these controversial reforms and asserted that they were revitalizing the national economy and strengthening the social fabric of the country.

However, many Nigerians do not share his optimistic view. A significant portion of the population remains skeptical that these reforms will lead to the prosperity promised during the campaign period and which his officials have consistently repeated, especially as the country continues to fall deeper into debt. One notable critic, Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate from the rival Peoples Democratic Party in the 2023 election, dismissed the reforms as ineffective and misguided. In a statement released on the anniversary, Atiku described Tinubu’s two years in office as marked by “misrule, economic hardship, and authoritarian tendencies,” asserting that the administration has worsened poverty, favored elites, and driven the nation into an unsustainable debt crisis.

Atiku pointed out that no government in Nigeria’s democratic history has imposed such severe hardship on the populace, and criticized some of the administration’s policies, stating they “disproportionately hurt the poor while rewarding the wealthy.”

While Atiku’s criticism may be regarded as part of his political posturing as an opposition figure, the claims largely reflect the sentiments of most Nigerians who doubt whether the reforms are yielding or will ever yield positive results.

It is worth noting that Tinubu’s twin policy of fuel subsidy removal and floating of the naira have sent the economy into an unprecedented tailspin with many Nigerians grappling with unimaginable hardship, high inflation and higher living costs. The people need more than those flowery words in the President’s anniversary speech to cushion the grinding effect of those policies.

To start a re-election rhetoric that early, rather than deal with the demons, amounts to adding insult to the economic injury. It means the president and his team are more interested in political survival than national progress. It is a sign of insecurity, a focus on entrenching power rather than winning public trust through results. When you add the growing concerns that Nigeria may be heading toward a one-party state under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the optics get even worse. 

That narrative is fueled by the President’s overt support for widespread political cross-carpeting as many elected officials from opposition parties—especially from the PDP and smaller parties—have defected to the APC, often under pressure or in pursuit of political survival. Or still, for rewards, as defectors into the APC are routinely rewarded with positions or other forms of patronage.

At the same time the President was preparing his anniversary speech, he sent a letter to the National Assembly requesting approval to borrow an astonishing $21.5 billion. This new borrowing raises serious doubts about the promises made during his anniversary address. How can citizens be encouraged to feel hopeful when the government is burdening the people with such immense debt?

If the past two years are any indicator of the future, many believe it looks grim. The rising debt linked to questionable projects does little to reassure the public that progress is being made. To make matter worse, many sections of the country have been left out in the projects he intends to apply the borrowed monies to. The South-East, for instance, has been persistent in voicing concerns of marginalization with regards to the federal governments infrastructural development, especially the rail masterplan and the Lagos-Calabar superhighway.

Instead of fixating on the chants for a second term—particularly when he has yet to deliver convincingly on his first—Tinubu should redirect his administration’s focus away from political flattery and toward fulfilling his many promises. Rather than acts that seek consolidation of power, weakening of opposition and eroding democratic pluralism, Tinubu should rather open the space wider for political competition, dissent, and institutional independence—features that are visibly under strain bin today’s Nigeria.

The detrimental impact of his policies is so severe that these distractions are insulting to struggling Nigerians. While it is definitely premature to ramp up political activities for the next election, the average citizen expects more efforts aimed at alleviating their current hardships. It is only in so doing that the reforms – whatever reforms – will resonate with the generality of Nigerians.

The Niger Delta is often seen as a reflection of Nigeria in miniature—especially Delta State, where a rich tapestry of ethnic groups, each with its own dialect and cultural identity, mirrors the nation’s diversity.

The region comprises nine states: Abia, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Imo, Rivers, and Ondo. Among the current governors, only Alex Otti of Abia State, representing the Labour Party (LP), came into office without any prior experience in government. A seasoned banker, Otti entered the political arena as a newcomer to public administration.

In contrast, the other eight governors had already held significant public offices before their current roles. For example, Douye Diri (Bayelsa), Hope Uzodinma (Imo), Monday Okpebholo (Edo), and Bassey Otu (Cross River) all previously served as senators before transitioning to executive leadership in their respective states. Similarly, Lucky Aiyedatiwa rose from deputy governor to governor in Ondo, while Sheriff Oborevwori, former Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly, moved from a legislative role to become the state’s chief executive.

Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State, who served as the state’s Accountant General under the previous administration, also brought with him deep familiarity with the government machinery. However, his tenure is currently on hold, following a six-month state of emergency declared by the federal government. Meanwhile, Umo Eno, the governor of Akwa Ibom, previously held the position of Commissioner for Works before ascending to the governorship.

With this wealth of prior experience, it was widely expected that these governors would not need much time to adjust to their roles. The prevailing assumption was that they would be ready to deliver from day one—mobilizing both human and financial resources to fulfill the lofty promises made during their campaigns.

As we move further into this analysis, we will evaluate how effectively these nine governors have lived up to expectations and whether they’ve delivered the much-anticipated dividends of democracy to the resilient people of the Niger Delta.

To borrow a phrase often attributed to former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, “You campaign in poetry but govern in prose.” In other words, while election campaigns are filled with passion, inspiration, and grand ideals—governance demands pragmatism, clarity, and results.

Which Niger Delta Governors Are Truly Governing in Prose?

Building on the earlier analysis, a crucial question arises: Which of the nine Niger Delta governors have transitioned from campaign poetry to the prose of governance, as famously framed by former New York Governor Mario Cuomo?

This article seeks to answer that by evaluating the performance of the region’s governors over the last two years—marking the halfway point in their four-year constitutional terms.

An exception must be made for Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State, who only took office in November due to the state’s off-cycle election. With just six months in office, it would be too early—and unfair—to judge the effectiveness of his administration at this stage.

To conduct a fair assessment of the governors’ performance, it’s important first to define what “good governance” means within the Nigerian context.

What Defines Good Governance in Nigeria?

In Nigeria, good governance is evaluated through several key areas of impact:

 1. Business Climate Improvement

Creating a more competitive, transparent, and investor-friendly environment is essential. This includes strengthening corporate governance and promoting economic sustainability to attract both local and international investment.

 2. Reforming the Oil, Power, and Extractive Industries

Given the Niger Delta’s role as Nigeria’s energy hub, reforms in these sectors are crucial. Priorities include promoting transparency, accountability, and shifting from a “gas-for-export” model to a “gas-to-power” strategy that improves electricity access.

 3. Innovation and Sustainable Development

Supporting governance innovations—especially those that emerge from local communities—is vital. These may include homegrown accountability mechanisms that ensure inclusive and transparent public administration.

 4. Youth, Gender, and Social Inclusion

Effective governance must actively empower youth and women through education, entrepreneurship, and social protection programs.

 5. Climate Resilience and Environmental Innovation

States are expected to implement climate-smart policies that promote environmental sustainability and protect communities from the growing threats of climate change.

 6. Agricultural Transformation

With food security under pressure, improving agricultural governance through innovation, investment, and infrastructure is another vital benchmark of effective leadership.

Core Pillars Supporting Good Governance

In addition to sectoral initiatives, good governance in Nigeria rests on several foundational elements:

 • Policy Engagement: Working with stakeholders and lawmakers to craft impactful, evidence-based reforms.

 • Data-Driven Decision-Making: Utilizing research and analytics to inform policies and measure results.

 • Institutional Capacity Building: Strengthening the ability of government bodies and personnel to deliver services effectively.

 • Transparency and Accountability: Upholding openness and ethical stewardship of public resources.

As we continue this midterm review of Niger Delta leadership, these criteria will serve as the lens through which we measure whether the governors are living up to their campaign promises—and delivering real progress in the daily lives of their constituents.

Core Principles of Good Governance

Globally, good governance is rooted in universal principles that cut across borders and systems. These include:

 • Responsibility: Diligent and consistent oversight of financial systems, legal compliance, and risk management.

 • Transparency and Communication: Clear, inclusive dialogue between governments and their citizens, encouraging participation and trust.

 • Equity and Justice: Ensuring fair treatment and equal opportunities for all members of society.

Integral to these principles is the protection of human rights, which is reinforced through:

 • Democratic Institutions: Structures that facilitate active citizen involvement in policy decisions.

 • Efficient Service Delivery: Governments must effectively provide essential services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

 • Rule of Law: Legal systems must be reformed to guarantee fairness, security, and equal enforcement of the law.

 • Anti-Corruption Practices: Strong mechanisms must be in place to deter corruption and promote accountability at all levels.

At the heart of these elements is strategic vision—a long-term, actionable plan that guides decision-making and ensures consistent development across governance levels.

The Niger Delta: Unique Challenges and Governance Imperatives

While the Niger Delta shares commonalities as Nigeria’s oil-producing heartland, its states vary in environmental and socio-economic conditions. Many areas, especially in Delta, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and parts of Bayelsa, are characterized by wetlands, creeks, and swampy terrain. These difficult geographies complicate infrastructure development, especially road construction, which is vital for connectivity and economic growth.

In contrast, states like Abia, Imo, Edo, Ondo, and Cross River are situated on firmer ground, making them relatively better positioned for infrastructure expansion.

Despite these differences, the entire region grapples with a similar set of environmental, economic, and social hurdles. To effectively address these challenges, governors in the Niger Delta must embrace holistic, strategic, and citizen-centric approaches. Priority areas include:

 • Environmental Remediation: Governments must lead aggressive clean-up campaigns in oil-impacted areas, while also putting in place measures to prevent future ecological damage.

 • Infrastructure Expansion: Robust investment in roads, bridges, hospitals, and public utilities is critical to improving quality of life and boosting commerce.

 • Diversified Economic Growth: Moving beyond oil dependency, leaders must invest in agriculture, aquaculture, small businesses, and innovation-driven sectors to build resilient local economies.

 • Community Participation: Engaging local populations in governance through consultation and inclusion helps foster trust and ensure policies align with grassroots realities.

 • Security and Peacebuilding: Addressing insecurity requires a blend of conflict resolution strategies, dialogue, and inclusive peacebuilding initiatives tailored to local dynamics.

 • Enforcing Accountability: Governors must ensure both public agencies and private corporations adhere to environmental and human rights standards, with strong regulatory systems in place to uphold these obligations.

Pathways to Sustainable Development in the Niger Delta

For governance to be truly transformative, it must also focus on long-term, sustainable outcomes. This includes:

 • Community-Led Development Projects: Emphasizing initiatives that support local needs while preserving the environment.

 • Youth Empowerment: Equipping young people with education, vocational skills, and employment opportunities to reduce restiveness and foster economic inclusion.

 • Improved Service Delivery: Strengthening access to quality education, healthcare, and basic services will significantly raise living standards.

Ultimately, the path to real transformation in the Niger Delta lies in confronting entrenched structural issues and deploying practical, people-oriented solutions. If these priorities are pursued with vision, commitment, and transparency, the region can unlock sustainable development and lasting prosperity.

Midterm Governance Review: Are Niger Delta Governors Delivering?

At the halfway mark of their four-year tenure—reached on May 29—the performance of governors in the nine Niger Delta states is now under the spotlight. This review examines whether they have delivered on their promises using key benchmarks for democratic dividends and good governance.

When President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023, he implemented sweeping economic reforms, including removing the long-standing petrol subsidy and unifying the naira’s exchange rate. These policies freed up considerable funds, resulting in significantly increased federal allocations to state governments.

Many states are now estimated to receive up to 60% more from the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC). For the oil-rich Niger Delta, this financial windfall raised expectations for accelerated development, improved infrastructure, and better living conditions.

One of the most immediate and tangible outcomes of this revenue boost is the clearing of civil servant salary backlogs. Many states that previously owed up to two years’ worth of wages are now current on salary payments—offering much-needed relief to workers and their families.

Assessing Progress Without Standardized Tools

Nigeria currently lacks a uniform, institutionalized system for evaluating subnational governance performance—unlike the way inflation or poverty is tracked by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, or GDP by global rating agencies. In this gap, the media has stepped in to measure progress.

Platforms like ThisDay and Arise News have focused on the Niger Delta, assessing governors’ achievements based on public perception and editorial judgment, though not always using data-driven metrics.

These reviews, while informal, have highlighted standout governors and shed light on leadership trends across the region.

Delta State Leads the Pack

Delta State has emerged as a top performer under Governor Sheriff Oborevwori. His administration has made clear strides in various sectors, earning him the title of Governor of the Year in some media assessments.

Key accomplishments include:

 • Sports: Hosting major events like the National Youth Games and National Sports Festival.

 • Judiciary: Upgrading court infrastructure and enhancing support for judicial personnel.

 • Human Capital Development: Offering grants and support for artisans, small business owners, and traders.

 • Security and Peace: Establishing the Delta State Advisory and Peace-Building Council to mediate conflicts.

 • Education: Improving school facilities, awarding scholarships, and strengthening higher institutions.

Beyond these, Oborevwori’s administration has made major investments in roads, bridges, healthcare, and agriculture. His infrastructure drive—facilitated through contractors like Julius Berger—has positioned Delta not just as a regional leader, but arguably one of Nigeria’s best-performing states.

Akwa Ibom Close Behind

Akwa Ibom, led by Governor Umo Eno, ranks next in terms of development. Through a weekly television program featuring the governance activities in the state, and other structured media reports, public opinion acknowledges his steady progress across multiple sectors.

A more thorough, data-backed evaluation from transparency-focused organizations like BudgIT, Statista, or Nairametrics would give a clearer picture of the impact of how the 36 governors and the Federal Capital Territory, (FCT) minister nationwide have fared in their administration at the subnational level.

Currently, Delta and Akwa Ibom are viewed as the most progressive states in the Niger Delta based on visible governance efforts and citizen engagement.

The Power of Media Visibility

One thing both Delta and Akwa Ibom have in common is their effective communication strategies. Through sponsored programs on platforms like Arise News and collaborations with media influencers (tv anchor persons ,columnists and journalists, these states have maintained strong public visibility.

This strategic communication has helped them control the narrative, highlight successes, and stay connected to their citizens. As a result, media coverage has favored their administrations.

Conversely, the remaining seven Niger Delta states—Abia, Bayelsa, Imo, Ondo, Cross River, Rivers, and Edo—have suffered from poor communication, making their governance efforts largely invisible to the public. As the saying goes, “Governing without communicating is like winking at a pretty lady in a dark room. The man knows what he’s doing, but the lady doesn’t.”

Special Focus: Rivers and Edo States

In Rivers State, Governor Siminalayi Fubara began with high visibility but soon found his administration overshadowed by political conflict.

In Edo State, Governor Monday Okpebholo only assumed office six months ago due to the state’s off-cycle election. Despite the short time in office, he has made bold moves to tackle the state’s current biggest challenge in terms of insecurity—cracking down on cultism, removing traditional rulers involved in crime, and demolishing properties tied to illegal activities.

He has also initiated the construction of a major flyover at Ikpoba Hill to alleviate severe traffic congestion. Once completed, this project will improve traffic flow between eastern and western Nigeria, easing movement from Delta and Edo to Lagos.

Agriculture: A Neglected Sector

One major area where all Niger Delta governors need to improve is agriculture. With food prices rising due to subsidy removal and currency devaluation, food security is now a pressing concern.

While civil servants’ national minimum wages have risen—from ₦30,000 to about ₦70,000,commendably in all Niger Delta states it is higher than the national level —there has not been a commensurate increase in investment in farming. This is troubling, as agriculture remains the largest employer in Nigeria. So, without creating an enabling environment for agricultural activities to thrive in the rural areas, significant poverty alleviation may not be recorded in the hinterland as food insecurity will continue to be a source of hardship for the masses.

Despite ongoing challenges like farmer-herder clashes, flooding, and coastal erosion, Niger Delta state governments must prioritize agriculture to reduce hunger and boost rural livelihoods.

Conclusion: Unlocking the Region’s Potential

The takeaway is clear: with at least 60% higher inflow of funds to states from FAAC account,money is no longer the biggest or primary constraint to development in the Niger Delta and states nationwide.

That is because the state governors now have the resources to uplift their people—if managed wisely.

The real test is in vision, planning, and prioritizing projects that directly benefit the population. Governor Oborevwori has set a strong example by combining smart resource use with visible public engagement.

Advice to Other Governors

To governors whose performance remains under the radar, now is the time to act. Learn from Delta and Akwa Ibom—meet the real needs of your people and use the media as a governance tool.

If not, you risk being the proverbial man “winking in the dark”—your good efforts may go completely unnoticed.

With the 2027 election season approaching for all but Edo, this midterm point is an opportunity to turn things around, show leadership, and earn the people’s trust for a possible second term.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, and development strategist

Mr Basejè Lalaçe

The story of Nigeria and her States, is like that of Mr Basejè (Yoruba word for Spoiler) Lalaçe (the Hausa word for Spoil), who imported an almost new second-hand car from abroad. It had one or two fundamental problems which appeared to have been fixed before it was exported to Nigeria, and the Owner’s Manual was there in the glove compartment, complete with maintenance details and milestones for the different types of car service appointments, from oil and filter change to the first service, to checks on specific components like the brakes, major service, periodic service and so on. Mr Lalaçe had several drivers, and mostly, they were not particularly skilful drivers; some were reckless, while others were not concerned about the condition of the car - just as long as it moved!  

Over the years, Mr Lalaçe failed to continue with the maintenance of the vehicle after the first major service, and eventually the car started breaking down regularly. Each time the car broke down, no matter how many parts were affected and required replacement, Mr Lalaçe would either buy a ‘Tokunbo’ (second hand) part to replace the part that was most seriously affected, or replace only the one which the car couldn’t function without, or simply tell the Mechanic to manage it if he could get away with it! Eventually, aside from the body of the car being battered as a result of a series of accidents, the car engine knocked, amongst other serious faults, including the prior fundamental ones that appeared to have been repaired before the car was imported, and Mr Lalaçe was given a huge bill to overhaul the car to get it back on the road. 

The blame for this misfortune was then heaped on Ali, the current driver of the car who was employed months before it finally broke down completely. Of course, everyone ignored/forgot Mr Lalaçe’s total neglect of the car, and the role the string of careless drivers had played, as major contributors to the car’s complete breakdown; they blamed it all on Ali! How could that be?!!!

In this scenario, the car is Nigeria; Mr Lalaçe is successive Governments; the drivers are the various leaders, be it from the First Republic, or the Military, down to the Fourth Republic. Ali is the incumbent, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The story of the car, is also replicated in the case of the States and Governors, lest we forget them as we always do when it comes to accountability and scorecards. Though the car can be fixed, the repairs would be extensive and possibly time consuming, not just an oil change that will only take a few minutes. Obviously, the services of a capable Engineer/Mechanic is required, or it would be impossible to get the car up and running properly, reasonable fair wear and tear excepted. 

The Fourth Republic 

Interestingly, even previous drivers, who didn’t drive the car properly and were careless with it, have become the greatest critics of Ali! The other day, I couldn’t help but laugh and snigger, when Abubakar Malami, SAN, who goes down in history as one of the worst Attorneys-General of the Federation, joined the circle of critics, after such an inglorious career! Their criticism resembles a variation of the Self-Enhancement Theory in Psychology; where people run others down in order to boost themselves, their self-esteem, or to cover up their own failures, or simply make themselves feel better about themselves. While Nigerians have every right to show their displeasure about the state of the nation, I don’t think that contributors to the failure are in any position to complain or give advice that they themselves didn’t take when they were in office! 

One cannot say for sure when the first major service of the car was done, but, by the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999, the civil service had become a shadow of its former self, corrupt and inefficient; there were hardly any functioning manufacturing industries and Nigeria had become highly dependent on imports, while many institutions like NEPA (National Electric Power Authority, subsequently, Power Holding Company of Nigeria, and now, GenCos, TCN and DisCos) and the Oil Refineries were broken. Over the years, Electricity Generation capacity hadn’t been significantly expanded, despite the population explosion and consequent rise in demand for electricity, nor were the existing facilities properly maintained. Even at the time late President Shagari was campaigning for his second term in 1983, he promised electricity for all towns and villages, which means that, even as at then, electricity supply was inadequate. Nigeria had been importing fuel since the 1970s, as right from the start, her refineries’ capacity had never been enough to satisfy the rising demand for fuel. Fuel subsidy was introduced during the regime of General Obasanjo in 1977 or so, to control the price of fuel in light of the sharp increase in oil prices, and this subsidy policy was subsequently converted into a criminal enterprise from which government officials and business men made obscene illegal profits at the expense of Nigeria, as we were also subsidising neighbouring African countries since our fuel was being smuggled out and sold cheaply to them. 

Rule of law? That didn’t really exist under the Military, and unfortunately, it hasn’t fared too much better during the Fourth Republic. The 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended)(the Constitution) and the laws of the land, are often observed in their breach by Government and the people.

President Tinubu: Two Years On

And so, when we are looking at President Tinubu’s 2 years scorecard, we cannot look at it in isolation, without taking into consideration the context of Mr Lalaçe’s broken down car, and all that needs to be done to repair the country. President Tinubu’s performance comprises of ‘the good, the bad and the ugly’. I usually use the things that affect the everyday life of the people, to make my evaluations that creates my scorecard. Today, I find myself writing similar things to what I wrote in the past about Government’s scorecard. The driver before Ali was Yinka (President Buhari). 

In President Buhari’s January 2018 new year message, he had stated inter alia that, as at December 8, 2017, 5,155 MW of Electricity had been delivered to consumers, the highest amount that had ever been achieved. When I googled for an update on this information, the AI Overview stated that as at May 2023, Nigeria’s power generation capacity reached 5,313 MW, and on May 31, 2025, “Nigeria’s power grid recorded a peak generation of 5,372.30 MW at 4pm….”. This means that there has been no significant improvement in power generation, in the first two years of the Tinubu administration, and the very low amount of electricity being generated is shameful. See for example, South Africa, with a population of less than 70 million, over 58,000 MW of electricity is generated! What’s Nigeria’s excuse? Though the national grid has collapsed a good number of times since the inception of the Tinubu administration, the records show that in the first 2 year period of President Jonathan, President Buhari and President Tinubu, it has collapsed the least number of times under President Tinubu. Yet, it’s still an F9 in the electricity sector. 

While Ali has a better understanding of cars, and is a more skilful driver than his predecessor, Yinka; he also has more focused goals, and some may say President Tinubu is recording better achievements in the area of the Economy, the effects of some which may not be immediately felt, things still seem pretty grim for the average Nigerian - this is one of the bad and ugly parts. This has been attributed to bringing an end to the criminal fuel subsidy scam with its removal, and the simultaneous unification of the Nigerian foreign exchange regime, carried out without any proper preparations for the inflationary after effects on the people, which plunged Nigerians into severe economic hardship. Food prices are still relatively high, and majority of Nigerians are still finding it hard to survive. The high level of corruption, unemployment, lack of accountability and exorbitant cost of governance, are also part of the bad and ugly. The common man is not happy with this administration and indeed, APC, as their living conditions have suffered rather badly since they took over the reins of leadership in 2015. However, Nigeria that was declared the poverty capital of the world in 2018, with highest number of people living in abject poverty, has since moved up during the Tinubu administration. For this, in this sector, we can move from F9 to a low pass of between P8 and P7. When Nigerians start to see the positive impact of the economic reforms in their daily lives, then the score will improve. 

The Security situation in the country, which seemed to be improving during the first year of the Tinubu administration, also appears to have deteriorated again, at least in some parts of the country. See Section 14(2)(b) of the Constitution, on the security and welfare of Nigerians being the primary purpose of government. Though incidents of mass kidnapping seem to have declined, newer terror groups such as Lakurawa have emerged, and many are still being slaughtered, particularly in North Central zone. Even though President Tinubu’s approval of the establishment of Forest Guards, is a step in the right direction, as Nigeria’s expansive forests have become a haven for criminal activities - terrorists live there and most kidnap victims are kept in the forests, I am unable to give the Tinubu administration a pass mark for security. From an F9 in the Buhari administration, Nigeria is still hovering between an F9 and P8, as far as security is concerned. So much more needs to be done.

There is still a huge Infrastructure deficit, and for instance, regularly, we see videos in which communities showcase their dilapidated roads which haven’t received attention in decades. And so, there is the argument that the infrastructure development going on in Nigeria, is one of ‘eye service’, in which it is only in the most visible areas that some improvement is noticeable. The new Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway project, has also generated a great deal of controversy. While some argue that it would have made more sense and cost much less to repair all the existing major connecting highways and roads in Nigeria first, instead of embarking on this new project which may not be completed in the foreseeable future, in which the bidding process was opaque and the cost of completion, allegedly inflated, Government has insisted that this coastal highway is a game changer that will boost job creation and economic growth. This is left to be seen.

There is an improvement in the Health Sector, and I can’t help but feel that the current Minister of Health, Professor Ali Pate could do much more if he received necessary, adequate funding. There has been a shortfall between the budget allocation for healthcare and the actual amount received. The Nigerian Doctor-Patient ratio of about 1:4,000/5,000 instead of the WHO’s recommendation of 1:600, is extremely low. Due to the harsh working conditions, many Doctors have left the country to seek greener pastures. Additionally, the less privileged are also having serious challenges, as they cannot afford to pay the bills of even Government Hospitals, and price of medication is prohibitive. Unfortunately, even if we give Professor Pate A3 for effort, he needs more than the P8 support of Government to achieve better results. 

The educational objectives listed in Section 18 of the Constitution, are far from being achieved. Nigeria has over 18 million out-of-school children, possibly the highest in the world. President Tinubu’s administration has instituted the ‘DOTS’ Policy to overhaul the Education Sector in Nigeria. Millions of out-of-school have already benefited from this programme; there are also Teacher Training Programmes and the NELFUND Student Loan Scheme for indigent students attending Tertiary institutions. Again, even if we give the Minister of Education, Dr Tunji Alausa, C4 for effort, he also requires more than the P8 support of Government to achieve optimum results. 

Conclusion

Though President Tinubu’s administration, in pushing his Renewed Hope Agenda may have recorded some positives, the truth of the matter is that, their performance still leaves a lot to be desired. The performance of many Governors, is below par, and this, particularly that of the APC Governors who belong to the same party as the President and should have some type of cohesive joint agenda, necessarily reduces President Tinubu’s overall score. Apart from a handful of States, we don’t know what most Governors are doing. 

From the point of view of the masses, if they are not enjoying a decent dose of security and welfare, nor are they seeing enough dividends of democracy, they won’t believe that an administration is doing well, whether or not the administration has taken ‘bold’ steps to reform the economy for the benefit of all and so on. The living conditions of today, which are extremely harsh, must necessarily be a determinant of the scorecard. The truth must be told, so that Government will see things in the right perspective and do more of the needful. 

Unfortunately, instead of the truth being told, we have a mounting political unification driven by politicians’ self-interest and sycophancy, the height of which we are seeing with the mass defections to the ruling APC, not because of any ideology or APC’s wonderful performance, but to keep and get positions, and to make money. Even though we all love a bit of flattery here and there, I see President Tinubu as one who is too smart and experienced to be deceived by insincere glowing reports of ‘Yes Men’. He also said, ‘power isn’t served à la carte’; now that he has it, President Tinubu must appreciate the opportunity he was able to get to serve, a feat he was able to achieve as a result of his struggles to get there, by putting more effort into governance, and ensuring that the Governors do the same. Many believe that, he can do better. As an Economist by training, I can understand some of this administration’s initiatives, but on behalf of Nigerians and their current living conditions, my overall mark, can only hover between a P7 and C6.