As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration approached its second anniversary, the atmosphere was charged with political activity. Officials from his administration made efforts to account for their performance, but these efforts were overshadowed by a loud call for the President’s second term. Supporters, high-ranking party officials, even the All Progressives Congress governors and federal government officials were preponderantly focused on capturing more states and diminishing opposition parties than in showcasing their achievements. 

If Tinubu opposed this distraction, he did not make it known. He prominently welcomed defectors into the APC and, during a recent caucus meeting he hosted at the seat of government, he vigorously addressed concerns that Nigeria was becoming a one-party state under his leadership. Instead of reassuring citizens about the state of democracy, his comments fell short of providing comfort.

He eventually celebrated the second anniversary of his administration which featured a speech that received more criticism than praise. In his address, the President highlighted the achievements of his administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda and reiterated his commitment to tackling economic instability, improving nationwide security, reducing corruption, reforming governance, and lifting Nigerians out of poverty.

Tinubu claimed that the economic and overall situation he inherited demanded a redirection of the country’s affairs. He cited the removal of fuel subsidies and the establishment of multiple foreign exchange windows as key initiatives. Halfway through his first term, Tinubu reflected on these controversial reforms and asserted that they were revitalizing the national economy and strengthening the social fabric of the country.

However, many Nigerians do not share his optimistic view. A significant portion of the population remains skeptical that these reforms will lead to the prosperity promised during the campaign period and which his officials have consistently repeated, especially as the country continues to fall deeper into debt. One notable critic, Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate from the rival Peoples Democratic Party in the 2023 election, dismissed the reforms as ineffective and misguided. In a statement released on the anniversary, Atiku described Tinubu’s two years in office as marked by “misrule, economic hardship, and authoritarian tendencies,” asserting that the administration has worsened poverty, favored elites, and driven the nation into an unsustainable debt crisis.

Atiku pointed out that no government in Nigeria’s democratic history has imposed such severe hardship on the populace, and criticized some of the administration’s policies, stating they “disproportionately hurt the poor while rewarding the wealthy.”

While Atiku’s criticism may be regarded as part of his political posturing as an opposition figure, the claims largely reflect the sentiments of most Nigerians who doubt whether the reforms are yielding or will ever yield positive results.

It is worth noting that Tinubu’s twin policy of fuel subsidy removal and floating of the naira have sent the economy into an unprecedented tailspin with many Nigerians grappling with unimaginable hardship, high inflation and higher living costs. The people need more than those flowery words in the President’s anniversary speech to cushion the grinding effect of those policies.

To start a re-election rhetoric that early, rather than deal with the demons, amounts to adding insult to the economic injury. It means the president and his team are more interested in political survival than national progress. It is a sign of insecurity, a focus on entrenching power rather than winning public trust through results. When you add the growing concerns that Nigeria may be heading toward a one-party state under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the optics get even worse. 

That narrative is fueled by the President’s overt support for widespread political cross-carpeting as many elected officials from opposition parties—especially from the PDP and smaller parties—have defected to the APC, often under pressure or in pursuit of political survival. Or still, for rewards, as defectors into the APC are routinely rewarded with positions or other forms of patronage.

At the same time the President was preparing his anniversary speech, he sent a letter to the National Assembly requesting approval to borrow an astonishing $21.5 billion. This new borrowing raises serious doubts about the promises made during his anniversary address. How can citizens be encouraged to feel hopeful when the government is burdening the people with such immense debt?

If the past two years are any indicator of the future, many believe it looks grim. The rising debt linked to questionable projects does little to reassure the public that progress is being made. To make matter worse, many sections of the country have been left out in the projects he intends to apply the borrowed monies to. The South-East, for instance, has been persistent in voicing concerns of marginalization with regards to the federal governments infrastructural development, especially the rail masterplan and the Lagos-Calabar superhighway.

Instead of fixating on the chants for a second term—particularly when he has yet to deliver convincingly on his first—Tinubu should redirect his administration’s focus away from political flattery and toward fulfilling his many promises. Rather than acts that seek consolidation of power, weakening of opposition and eroding democratic pluralism, Tinubu should rather open the space wider for political competition, dissent, and institutional independence—features that are visibly under strain bin today’s Nigeria.

The detrimental impact of his policies is so severe that these distractions are insulting to struggling Nigerians. While it is definitely premature to ramp up political activities for the next election, the average citizen expects more efforts aimed at alleviating their current hardships. It is only in so doing that the reforms – whatever reforms – will resonate with the generality of Nigerians.