
OTHERS' VIEWS
As it struggles with the consequences of its poor handling of the rash of military coups in the West African region, the leadership of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) appears to have run out of ideas and creativity in search of an effective solution.
By their decision to use military force to restore constitutional order in Niger following the army takeover of government in that country on 26 July 2023, and the sweeping sanctions imposed on coup plotters in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger, including travel and flight bans, ECOWAS leaders should have known that they were on slippery grounds.
In its 50 years of existence, the regional bloc is better known for acquitting itself credibly in conflict prevention, management, and resolution, especially ending the civil wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone and effectively restoring constitutional order in member States after military coups.
While Article 45 of the Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance 2001 permits the Mediation and Security Council to apply measures including sanctions in the event of an unconstitutional change of government, the Authority of Heads of State and Government had always maintained a principled stance in deploying a combination of tools/strategies - diplomacy and tough decisions, where necessary, in tackling conflicts.
Article 45.1 states: “In the event that democracy is abruptly brought to an end by any means or where there is massive violation of Human Rights in a member State, ECOWAS may impose sanctions on the State concerned.”
45.2. explains: “The sanctions which shall be decided by the Authority may take the following forms, in increasing order of severity:
• Refusal to support the candidates presented by the member State concerned for elective posts in international organisations
• Refusal to organise ECOWAS meetings in the Member State concerned
• Suspension of the member State concerned from all ECOWAS decision-making bodies. During the period of the suspension, the member State concerned shall be obliged to pay its dues for the period.
45.3. During the period of suspension, ECOWAS shall continue to monitor, encourage and support the efforts being made by the suspended member State to return to normalcy and constitutional order.
45.4. On the recommendation of the Mediation and Security Council, a decision may be taken at the appropriate time to proceed as stipulated in Article 45 of the Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peace-Keeping and Security 1999.
On Restoration of Political Authority, this Article stipulates: “In situations where the authority of government is absent or has been seriously eroded, ECOWAS shall support processes towards the restoration of political authority. Such support may include the preparation, organisation, monitoring and management of the electoral process, with the cooperation of relevant regional and international organisations. The restoration of political authority shall be undertaken at the same time as the development of respect for human rights, enhancement of the rule of law and the judiciary.”
It should be noted that ECOWAS’ military interventions in Liberia and Sierra Leone, through its Ceasefire Monitoring Group, ECOMOG, in the 1990s, were under different circumstances and at the behest of the beleaguered governments. Also, in 2016/2017, the deployment of Nigerian air assets and the preparation by Senegalese troops to march on the Gambia only followed the uncompromising position of then-President Yahya Jammeh, who rejected ECOWAS’ mediation, claiming victory in the December 2016 election, which he lost. In the end, Jammeh was exiled to Equatorial Guinea without any military confrontations.
Also, under the 1999 and 2001 Protocols, there are provisions for the deployment of good office missions, including military chiefs, Council of the Wise/Elders or appointment of a Chief Mediator. But ECOWAS leaders did not exhaust these non-kinetic alternatives before going for an aborted military option in Niger. Also, the imposition of travel and flight bans effectively foreclosed the possibility of interactions or negotiations with the coup leaders.
Similarly, Nigeria’s cut of electricity supply to Niger did not derive from any ECOWAS instruments.
Article 52 of the 1999 Protocol states that: “In accordance with Chapters VII and VIII of the United Nations Charter, ECOWAS shall inform the United Nations of any military intervention undertaken in pursuit of the objectives of this Mechanism,” but this was not the case on Niger.
The embarrassment from an unprecedented and unpopular decision for kinetic option in Niger, which fell through, has forced ECOWAS leaders into an uncomfortable situation, and their bending over backwards to placate the junta leaders - a strategy fraught with potential uncertainties and unsavoury consequences.
Most critically, the implementation of some decisions taken by the ECOWAS Council of Ministers at its extraordinary meeting in Accra, Ghana 22-23 May 2025, on the contingency arrangements for the departure of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger (known as the Alliance of Sahel States, AES, could damage the integrity, unity and cohesion of the regional bloc irreparably, and hasten its further disintegration.
Article 91 of the ECOWAS Revised Treaty 1993 is unambiguous on the withdrawal of any member state from ECOWAS. Article 91.1 states clearly: “Any member State wishing to withdraw from the Community shall give to the Executive Secretary (President of the Commission) one year's notice in writing… At the expiration of this period, if such notice is not withdrawn, such a State shall cease to be a member of the Community.
91.2. During the period of one year… such a member State shall continue to comply with the provisions of this Treaty and shall remain bound to discharge its obligations under this Treaty.”
ECOWAS rules do not provide for “group withdrawal,” and following the precedent with Mauritania's withdrawal in 2000, there was no need for the ECOWAS Council of Ministers to reinvent the wheel, the way it did in Accra.
The junta leaders announced their countries’ withdrawal from ECOWAS “with immediate effect” in January 2024.
However, under the 1993 treaty, that withdrawal only became effective by January 2025, and acting on humanitarian grounds, ECOWAS granted its staff from the AES countries until September 2025 to leave with an additional three months’ pay until December 2025.
Yet, the Council at its Accra meeting decided to:
a. ”adopt a two-phase disengagement process for the affected staff. The first phase will involve staff in Senior Professional positions… and all G-Staff from the three countries that are working at ECOWAS institutions to be relocated and will take effect at the end of September, based on termination letters already sent to the staff concerned. The (ECOWAS), Commission is given until the end of December 2025 to recruit staff to fill the resulting vacant positions. The second phase will involve P4 Staff and below and will be carried out on a case-by-case basis, taking into account the specific circumstances of the staff concerned, including age and the priority needs of the institutions.”
“On regional market and economic integration, the Council underscored that Free Movement and Economic matters are at the core of regional integration and deserve particular attention in discussing separation modalities with the exiting countries.
In a needless move to accommodate the AES countries, “(The) Council noted the existence of various legal frameworks which are the foundation of regional economic integration and directly affect Community citizens… stressed the need to ensure a collective approach to negotiations as a regional bloc based on existing regional instruments such as the Protocol on free movement of persons, the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme and the Common External Tariff.”
Additionally, while it “reiterates the clarity, in the relevant provisions of the ECOWAS staff Regulations, that only nationals of ECOWAS member States are eligible for employment as staff members,” the Council still called for a “Review of the Staff Regulations to reflect current circumstances.”
The Council further authorised the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), ”to continue with its commitments under ongoing projects in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Still, the Council decided that EBID disengage with staff from the three Countries.”
To many analysts, these concessions are not only too many, but unwarranted and may come back to haunt ECOWAS and its aspirations for regional integration. The junta leaders have been unrepentant in denouncing ECOWAS and all that it stands for while portraying themselves as populist power grabbers determined to perpetuate themselves in the saddle.
ECOWAS should assert itself as a rule-based organisation. However, its dilemma is that for the past 10 to 12 years, the bloc has ignored or tolerated “constitutional and electoral coups, and human rights violations” by some of its leaders in blatant breach of its own rules. There are also some fifth columnists within, working against ECOWAS.
The Constitutional Convergence Principles under Article 1 of the 2001 Protocol stress among others:
- Separation of powers by the Executive, Legislative and Judiciary.
- Empowerment and strengthening of parliaments and guarantee of parliamentary immunity.
- Independence of the Judiciary.
- Every accession to power must be made through free, fair and transparent elections.
- Zero tolerance for power obtained or maintained by unconstitutional means, and,
- Popular participation in decision-making, strict adherence to democratic principles and decentralisation of power at all levels of governance.
Yet, in their inordinate quest to obtain or retain power at all costs, some ECOWAS leaders have trampled on the regional principles, while the Authority of Heads of State has rendered dormant or ineffectual the ECOWAS Commission and its management, which are supposed to coordinate the programmes and activities of the regional institutions.
As ECOWAS celebrates the 50th anniversary of its formation through the 28th May 1975 Treaty of Lagos, its drastic problems require drastic solutions.
For a start, the ECOWAS Commission should undertake an urgent and transparent recruitment exercise to fill any vacant positions from the teeming army of qualified professionals among the 400 million community citizens and release staff from countries whose leaders despise the regional bloc.
Since the proud junta leaders believe that their landlocked poor countries are self-sufficient, ECOWAS should not reward their arrogance.
To regain its past glory, navigate emerging threats and bequeath an enduring legacy to the next generations, ECOWAS leaders at national and regional levels must change tact and lead by example with vision and dynamism, beginning with effective management of the lingering threats in member States such as Togo, Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, The Gambia and Cote d’Ivoire.
Paul Ejime is a Media/Communications Specialist and Global Affairs Analyst
Since losing power in 2015, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has shown little urgency in pursuing meaningful reform. Rebranding efforts have been scant, and there’s been no sincere attempt to convince Nigerians that its defeat was the result of 16 years of misrule and a widening disconnect from the people it once claimed to represent.
Only recently – following high-profile defections, including those of Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and his predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa – did the PDP appear to grasp the gravity of its situation. As the party continues to lose more members, it has also begun trying to rebrand. While this signals a much-needed reawakening, it is far from enough.
In a previous article addressing this wave of defections, I argued that the PDP must rethink, regroup, and redefine its new role as Nigeria’s leading opposition. I outlined four reforms the party must pursue to rebuild trust and repair its damaged reputation among Nigerians.
First, the PDP must align its positions across national and grassroots levels. Second, it must end the imposition of candidates in favour of merit-based leadership. Third, the party should champion legal reforms to curb opportunistic defections. And fourth, it must invest in civic education campaigns that connect its values and governance vision with the aspirations of ordinary Nigerians. However, true reform must begin with sincere remorse.
Before embarking on these crucial reforms, the PDP must first acknowledge that it broke the trust of Nigerians, and failed the people during its 16 years in power. Without this, any reform would be seen as cosmetic, and driven by desperation, not accountability.
To navigate this critical moment, the party can take lessons from Africa’s various truth commissions such as South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Rwanda’s Gacaca courts, and Nigeria’s own Oputa Panel. One valuable insight they all share is this: real transformation begins with truth-telling and, where appropriate, an apology.
Apologies are not always spoken. Sometimes they are demonstrated through changed behaviour. Take the APC, for example. Ahead of the 2015 election, the party – aware that its candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, had the image of a former military dictator with a troubling human rights record – launched a rebranding campaign. It portrayed him as a “converted democrat.” This repositioning helped pave the way for the party’s eventual victory.
The PDP must understand that reform without remorse is simply branding. It should not assume that Nigerians, disillusioned by the APC’s many failures, will automatically return to the PDP by default. That would be a grave miscalculation by the party.
Indeed, the APC has proven to be far from the change it promised – and in many respects, arguably worse than the PDP. But this disappointment alone does not guarantee a PDP comeback. Not without reform. And certainly not without some form of atonement.
The PDP must be willing to engage in political truth-telling and demonstrate changed behaviour to Nigerians. This doesn’t require dramatic public confessions. What it does require is a clear, public acknowledgement that mistakes were made, that lessons have been learned, and that safeguards are now in place to ensure those mistakes are not repeated.
As I mentioned earlier, a reformed PDP must align its internal structures, end the imposition of candidates, champion anti-defection legislation, and invest in civic education that reflects a genuine commitment to Nigeria’s democratic aspirations.
Reputation, once lost, is difficult to regain – but not impossible. Truth commissions across Africa have shown us that forgiveness is possible when contrition is sincere. The PDP must embrace this lesson if it hopes to rebuild trust with Nigerians. Reform without contrition is just branding. What the PDP must offer is reform rooted in remorse, and not desperation.
● Maduekwe is the founder of Discussing Africa. He can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
[OPINION] What Abuja’s Embassy-Rent Threat Could Cost Nigeria’s Global Standing If Wike Is Not Called To Order - Isaac Asabor
AdminWhen Nyesom Wike, the often blunt and garrulous FCT Minister, warned that embassies in Abuja failing to pay ground rent could face sealing, one cannot but predict that his action could land Nigeria into a legal, and diplomatic quagmire. While at first glance this might seem a straightforward enforcement of property laws, the diplomatic fallout could be profound. From international law and bilateral relations to domestic politics and Nigeria’s long-term global image, the move sets several worrying precedents.
The reason for the foregoing anxiety cannot be farfetched as Nigeria, like many countries, offers embassies hallowed status as diplomatic missions are typically exempt from standard local regulation under the Vienna Convention. Yet, exceptions may exist when it comes to state‑negotiated lease terms. If Nigeria’s revenue service deems that embassies are obliged to pay ground rent negotiated in formal agreements, and those agreements clearly stipulate enforceable obligations, Wike’s move may be legally defensible.
But enforcing that rent, threatening embassy closure or asset seizure, is not just a commercial decision. It touches on diplomatic immunity and the sanctity of missions themselves. Under the Vienna Convention, diplomatic premises are inviolable. Nigeria could risk breaching that inviolability if enforcement appears coercive or forceful.
While listening to human rights lawyer and Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Femi Falan during an interview on Politics Today on Channels Television, his position on the issue was not just cautionary and weighty, but it was timely as it is a clear-eyed reminder that governance must operate within the bounds of legality and diplomacy, not impulsive theatrics.
Falana, on the programme, cautioned Wike, stressing that such actions risk triggering serious diplomatic backlash. He pointed to Article 22 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which explicitly states that embassy premises are inviolable. That means, no matter the level of provocation or debt, Nigeria has no legal right to forcibly enter, seal, or tamper with diplomatic premises. Any move to do so, Falana argued, would be unlawful and could embarrass Nigeria on the global stage.
Falana did not stop at the international implications; he also questioned the legality of Wike’s broader sealing-off tactics. According to him, the minister cannot unilaterally order such actions without first giving affected parties the right to fair hearing, as guaranteed by Section 36 of Nigeria’s Constitution and Article 7 of the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights Act. In short, bypassing legal processes to enforce rent payment amounts to executive rascality.
He urged the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, to immediately intervene, emphasizing that matters involving foreign missions require tact, protocol, and strict adherence to international law, not the strong-arm tactics Wike seems to prefer.
Be that as it may, it is expedient to opine that Wike’s threat is not without modern parallels. Around the world, similar disputes have escalated into flashpoints of diplomatic tension. For instance, in 2019, there was a standoff between India and Pakistan. As gathered from historical literatures, Pakistan locked down a building the Indian embassy had purchased earlier due to a payment dispute, prompting formal diplomatic protests and media coverage.
In a similar vein, there was diplomatic imbroglio between Russia and Georgia in London in 2006. As gathered, a rent dispute over a property adjacent to the Georgian embassy sparked a court battle and serious public disagreement, though both sides ultimately avoided drastic action.
Also in a similar vein, history has it that UK Embassy in Tehran in 1979 was embroiled In a crisis far more intense than transactional rent disputes as embassy powers were overridden, buildings occupied, leading to one of the gravest diplomatic crises of the modern era.
In even these tensions over property among friendly states, the fallout was real: formal complaints, tit-for-tat trade irritants, sometimes minor sanctions, or downgrading of diplomatic ties. Escalations like this do not stay confined to Assemblies, they bleed into broader relations, public image, security cooperation, and more.
On paper, cracking down on unpaid rent could portray Nigeria to be fiscally responsible, and a nation that is guided by rule-of-law. This is as the revenue climate is already austere, and every naira counts. Wike’s track record shows he does not shy from enforcing payments: earlier this year, he sealed off properties over tax arrears.
But embassies operate on a different diplomatic plane. If Abuja proceeds to seal or padlock foreign diplomatic missions, even temporarily, expect, retaliatory action. Other governments might retaliate by slowing or withholding visas, import licenses, or participation in agreements.
In fact, the diplomatic row may metamorphose to chilling foreign investment. Therefore, business leaders should take note, if Nigeria cannot manage to enforce dues for embassies, what might that imply for investors?
Not only that, future administrations may weaponize embassy vulnerability more overtly as rent could morph into leverage, particularly as there is a foundational precedent to stand on.
In light of the potential diplomatic fallout from Wike’s threat to seal embassies over unpaid ground rent, it is imperative that the Federal Government urgently calls the FCT Minister to order. Matters that border on diplomacy are not within the jurisdiction of state or regional officials, no matter their title or influence, they remain the exclusive preserve of the Federal Government, particularly the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Wike, by all observations, is not known for his diplomatic finesse. His combative and often theatrical style of governance may have served him well in the political trenches of Rivers State, but in Abuja, Nigeria’s seat of power and international diplomacy, such recklessness could spell disaster. Allowing him to trample on long-established diplomatic norms and the inviolability of foreign missions, as enshrined in international conventions, could result in diplomatic reprisals, strained bilateral ties, and reputational damage for Nigeria on the global stage.
Before this needless drama escalates into an international embarrassment, the Federal Government must rein in Wike’s overreach and ensure that Nigeria’s foreign relations are handled with the caution, protocol, and maturity they deserve. There are lawful, civilized means of recovering debts, even from embassies. What is not acceptable is for one man to jeopardize decades of diplomatic goodwill in a bid to score populist points or flex political muscle.
“Do not follow a person who is running away”.– African proverb
Until Governors come forward, the dust would appear to have settled on the drums rolled out to celebrate two years since the current national leadership was elected. Note that the word ‘achievements’ is not in the last sentence. It was not so much that no attempt was made to actually mention achievements deserving celebration.
President Bola Tinubu made a long speech listing major decisions and initiatives that should fundamentally alter the trajectories of the nation’s political economy, some of them already bearing fruit in the midst of unavoidable pain. Traditional media made small fortunes from congratulatory messages heavy with language of seekers of patronage and public officers seeking favours with public funds. Every voice in leadership position shouted praises of the leadership for its courage and vision, which reminded Nigerians that they are living in awe and admiration.
What was muted was the voice of the people, although there are Ministers and APC Governors and party leaders and spokespersons who will swear that they are the true voices of the people. So confident is this category that they may have slept soundly, even happily, after their series of endorsements of the President for another term with two unspent years. If endorsements are going to make PBAT happy, then that is the way to go. The received wisdom appears to be, whatever makes the President happy is best for the President and those in power. It is the same wisdom which suggests that inducing defectors is a sign of popular acceptance by the people.
It is not exactly correct to say that there were no murmurs of dissent among a large segment of the population. The formal political opposition matched every claim of progress and visionary leadership by the APC with well-crafted denunciation, but who listens to an opposition that is more burdened by internal problems than the challenges of taking on an administration that is content to hear only its own voice? Its tallest member, the PDP, is held captive by two elephants in the room: the embarrassing defiance of Nyesom Wike who sits smugly on its gaping weakness, and the ambitions of Atiku Abubakar and colleagues who secretly see each other as threats greater than Tinubu.
Sections of the media demanded more genuine redress and progress from an administration which insists it is redesigning the future, and only a blind opposition or biased mischief will elevate the negatives over the positives. More subdued voices insist they see only the distant outlines of an administration that inherited a mountain of woes, and had decided to build its own mountains of misery alongside its sorry inheritance.
The spoilers that rained on the APC parade and muffled its drums were the daily tally of blood and tears of citizens who fell to widespread violence from terrorists, bandits kidnappers and sundry threats to internal security; cost of existence that will offend the word ‘living’; escalating outbreaks of mini civil wars between communities which defy logic or resolution; contemptuous leadership styles which scream the total absence of rule of law, decency, accountability or shame; massive flooding that reminds the nation that nature is angry with the country for being abused and ignored, and alarming levels of alienation among young Nigerians who expect nothing good from their country, to which they also owe nothing.
An argument that this narrative is unfair to an administration with much to celebrate could be countered by another which advises a leadership that has covered only half of its journey to show higher levels of modesty and sensitivity to its challenges. Endorsing President Tinubu, APC governors and legislators as candidates owing to good performances with two years to an election sends only one signal: the APC is done with accountability and internal democracy. It panders to a coalescing personality cult around elected officials and governors and, in particular, the President.
Groveling party officials at state levels and massive increases in revenue allocations now available to Governors make them powerful dispensers of assets and other favours, attracting parasitic praise- singers wearing titles as party leaders. If you want to be charitable to President Tinubu, you could say he is being poorly served by his intimate circle and a party leadership that are creating for him an image of an untouchable president around whom every power and ambition rotates. If you are not the charitable kind, you may conclude that the party and the administration perfectly reflect the real character of President Tinubu: unyielding, unforgiving, calculating and comfortable only with total control.
Neither of these images should be welcome by a president with two or six years to battle all odds to re-design Nigeria. A president at the mercy of handlers, confidants and a party leadership out of touch with realities and inept at the delicate art of managing power will suggest a weakness Tinubu cannot survive with. This will be the Tinubu who would not have frowned at poorly-timed endorsements and a show of power that is intended to kill-off opposition still mutating with two years to go. On the other hand, the image of a ruthless, all-consuming Maximum President a long way before elections will only stiffen opposition and resistance against a president who will strive to be re-elected at all cost. Writing off whole segments of the country as incurably hostile, or designing strategies outside the political process and the law will be the only way he can be re-elected.
There is a madness afflicting the ruling party and all others. Its symptoms are political shortsightedness, faulty reasoning and crass opportunism. Everyone is approaching a marathon with the requirements of a dash. APC will abandon a major requirement needing focus, intelligence and informed management of its mandate to make the elections easier to win. The opposition will ignore the values of building resilient relationships and designing a winning strategy, with panic driving thought and action. One of them could win the 2027 elections, but the price will be paid by the nation in the form of the leadership that will confuse electoral victory with governance.
…And Then We Lost Two Titans
In the space of two days, the nation lost two of its best and brightest. Professor Jubril Aminu and Chief Justice Muhammadu Lawal Uwais passed on, making Nigeria poorer in its asset of citizens who excelled in serving it. Their lives should be a study in brilliance, untiring service, exemplary humility, unimpeachable integrity, unparalleled service to the fatherland and untainted personal dignity till death.
May God be pleased with them.
This is a season of political divorces, that strange separation of godsons from their godfathers and the end to political alliances between people of like interests. The events of the last two weeks were quite revealing, from the rift that blew open in the political relationship between Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu and the governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu Lagos in Nigeria to collapse in the political romance between US President Donald Trump and billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk in the United States.
The former is more of a godfather and godson relationship, while the later is/was a marriage of political interests.
Sanwo-Olu’s emergence as the favourite for the governorship of Lagos was spectacular, after Tinubu – the godfather of Lagos politics – fell out with Governor Akinwunmi Ambode in the run-in to the 2019 election. A relatively lesser-known figure at the time, Sanwo-Olu’s strong point which was sold as Ambode’s weakness, was his unwavering loyalty to party directives and the Tinubu political dynasty. Six years down the road, the Tinubu-Sanwo-Olu relationship, which became a model of political loyalty, is now under growing strain.
The tension first started after the 2023 presidential election in which Lagos delivered a far narrower vote margin than expected, a poor performance in Tinubu’s traditional stronghold that saw Labour Party’s Peter Obi win the state convincingly. The loss, though not blamed directly on Sanwo-Olu, raised concerns within the Tinubu camp about the governor’s effectiveness in maintaining grassroots control and party loyalty.
More revealing was the political turmoil that erupted in Lagos, involving the State House of Assembly Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa. When Obasa was abruptly impeached in early 2025, allegedly with Governor Sanwo-Olu’s tacit approval, Tinubu reportedly intervened to secure the Speaker’s swift reinstatement. Sanwo-Olu’s perceived involvement, or at least his failure to prevent the move, was seen as another red flag in his handling of affairs as they affect the godfather. Instructively, the reinstatement was done with the governor totally blind-sided.
Sanwo-Olu’s increasingly independent governance style which drew him closer to technocrats, private sector figures, and policy experts, many of whom operate outside Tinubu’s traditional political machinery, further widened the gap. To add to the matter, he was reportedly building legacies around his name rather than the godfather.
What was once a quiet, behind-the-scenes divergence has in recent weeks increasingly become more apparent to the public, as subtle tensions between the two key figures of Lagos politics began to unfold. While neither the President nor Governor Sanwo-Olu publicly acknowledged a political rift, a series of subtle but telling public displays have fueled growing speculation that tensions are rising between the two. Since then, their public appearances together have noticeably dwindled and when it happens, creates even more curiosity among the people.
If what happened at the recent inauguration of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway on May 31, 2025, during which President Tinubu was seen bypassing Governor Sanwo-Olu during a handshake session, is anything to go by, then there is indeed, a deeper crack than was ever imagined. This public snub, captured on video, quickly went viral and was widely interpreted as a sign of deep discord between the two leaders. Further evidence of the rift emerged during President Tinubu’s recent official visits to Lagos – for the ECOWAS 50th anniversary and the commissioning of Lagos deep seaport road – with Governor Sanwo-Olu noticeably absent in both occasions.
Should the President, the father of all, have engaged in such open disagreement with his political godson? Is it a good record that he has consistently quarreled with the men and women, including the 2 people that served as his deputies while he was Lagos governor, who are his well-known political proteges? These are questions begging for answers as Nigerians chew over the troubling matter.
Such political divorces in the recent past did not end in Lagos. In far away United States, billionaire Elon Musk who emerged as a pivotal supporter of Donald Trump and who forged a political alliance that significantly influenced the 2024 campaign’s trajectory in the US, also spectacularly fell out with the President. Musk touted himself as Trump’s friend and ally and became one of Trump’s most substantial financial backers, establishing America PAC that mobilized voters, particularly in swing states and contributed over $250 million to Trump’s campaign.
His eventual appointment as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), did not surprise many though it was marked by controversial measures, including the elimination of certain federal agencies and programs as he advocated for significant federal budget cuts and deregulation. However, the alliance began to fray in the past 2 weeks when Musk publicly criticized Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” for its potential to increase the national deficit and reduce electric vehicle subsidies, which directly impacted Musk’s business interests negatively.
The rift and eventual political divorce was swift, quickly breeding unprecedented bad blood and bitterness. Trump’s threat to revoke Musk’s government contracts and Musk’s threat to release damaging information about Trump’s past escapades have seen a dramatic shift from alliance to adversary between two influential figures.
The political relationship between Trump and Elon Musk has undergone a dramatic shift, evolving from mutual admiration to growing animosity, as their alliance has suffered from a clash of personal interests, political ambitions, and ideological differences.
While the exact nature of the potential revelations that Musk has threatened to reveal remains unclear, his bitterness is growing over the loss of over $150 billion in value of his businesses within days. Musk is believed to possess communications, private correspondences, knowledge of personal matters and previous associations with individuals in Trump’s orbit that could prove politically damaging. His willingness to air such information would represent a serious escalation in their feud, turning a political disagreement into a personal battle.
The consequences of the Tinubu-Sanwo-Olu disagreement and the collapse of the Trump-Musk relationship highlight the volatile intersection of politics, business, personal ambition, and ego. While it is heartening to hear that the elders in Lagos State intervened last week to resolve the Tinubu-Sanwo-Olu dispute, leading to the President ‘forgiving’ the governor’s ‘sins’, the gulf between Trump and Musk on the other hand, is widening. The clash between the world’s most powerful leader and the earth’s richest man has degenerated to name-calling, childish banters and frightening threats. It could have wide-ranging implications in US politics, with the potential for further conflict as they appear, on the surface, beyond repair.
Sheddy Ozoene, Editor-In-Chief of People&Politics, is Vice President of the Nigerian Guild of Editors.
Bode George has an abiding faith in PDP. And using the humongous amount of Rivers State funds frittered away on some ungrateful “chop and clean mouth” PDP politicians as index of measurement, the only other person close to Bode George in this regard is Nyesom Wike, his estranged godson, with whom he is currently engaged in brickbats over the soul of their beloved PDP.
Not many of those who once swore by PDP’s name want to identify with it today. Many are in a mad rush to abandon a sinking PDP ship. The South-south geo-political zone once regarded as the bedrock of PDP, we now know, was because the now tattered PDP umbrella provided cover for massive mismanagement of state funds in a zone where leaders claim stealing state funds is not corruption but ‘misapplication of funds’. (Augustus Aikhomu and Goodluck Jonathan).
While PDP stalwarts who once ate with their 10 fingers in the 16 years of the locust are today falling over each other to escape PDP sinking ship, what we hear from the likes of Olusegun Obasanjo, Atiku Abubakar, David Mark, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, etc., the oligarchy that changed PDP from its founding fathers’ dream to a garrison-commanded by self-serving leaders, is a foreboding silence.
Bode George however remains not only passionate about PDP, but its very embodiment as conceived by its founding fathers. When Obasanjo asked him to choose a role he would like to play after being foisted on the Yoruba nation and Nigeria as PDP candidate in 1998 by the military and the interest they serve, Bode George’s choice without hesitation was a PDP apparatchik. And even when offered the position of Sole Administrator of NPA by Abiye Sekibo, after the government had been inaugurated, his response was “My Honourable, thank you for the honour. I have more important job to do in the party than go and be any sole administrator.”
Even now as the oligarchy and other PDP stakeholders pretend not to hear the tolling of the death knell of their party, Bode George’s vociferous voice is the only one ‘jarring our earlobes’. Nigerians can still hear the ringing echo of his voice as he squared up with Arise TV’s Charles Aniagolu last week, insisting:
“PDP is like Iroko tree. Or the Oak tree found in Saudi Arabia”; “PDP is the only party in Nigeria”; “Our party is not like APC owned by individual”; PDP party as packaged by our founding fathers has the capacity to solve Nigeria problems”, etc.
More intriguing is that George is not exhibiting any evidence he is ready to give up on PDP despite his political son’s last week call on him to go and ‘read newspapers’ if he had nothing doing. And that was after challenging him to identify one politician PDP made from Lagos or one PDP elected politician he successfully supported despite his 25 years of misguided war against Tinubu. AD senators Wahab Dosumu, Adeseye Ogunlewe and Musiliu Obanikoro that he and Obasanjo lured into PDP in 2002 was regarded as ‘mandate theft’ while the 2003 governorship mandate theft in Edo, Ondo, Osun, George took credit for, were reversed by the courts.
Long before Wike’s advice, one of his other disrupting political son, Ayo Fayose had, back in 2020, asked him to retire to give room to younger ones. In his words “it’s high time Bode George retires. Let him be a support stand for the younger ones in the party …all those stories of how we formed this party in 1998, eight of us sat in my sitting room to form the party, is no longer important because the young too must be allowed to grow. (African Examiner September 30, 2020).
Indeed, the joke was on George himself when in an attempt to admonish Wike who is insisting “he is Mr PDP’ resorted to his favourite Shakespeare quote “Life is like a walking shadow… It is like a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury and after that you are heard no more”.
Consumed by his love for PDP, Bode George is yet to come to terms that there is indeed ‘time for everything’.
But is Bode George’s passion enough to save PDP? I don’t think so. It will appear it is too late to change the tide. It is also of little relief that not many members of his embattled party share his optimism.
For the PDP governors who are not ready to take chances, because they are seeking re-election: “if the taste of the wine changes, drinking habit must change” or “if you must fly to Abuja and your private jet is grounded, it will be foolhardy not to join another plane that guarantees a safe flight”. And to PDP former governors like Gabriel Suswan and PDP stalwarts like Segun Sowunmi, Atiku’s former spokesman, PDP is ‘in intensive care’.
And neither can anyone fault APC, the irresistible bride that “we are in a democracy and democracy allows freedom of association”.
Unfortunately for Bode George, the pervading gloominess gives no assurance of light at the end of the tunnel. By the verdict of students of political party system including John Campbell, former US envoy to Nigeria, PDP, unlike parties that serve as recruitment centres for political office holders and as modernization agents, is in fact not a political party. It is an association of ‘wheelers and dealers he dismissed during a debate on Nigeria in British House of Commons as “an elite cartel at the centre of power in Nigeria that came together essentially as a club of elites for sharing of oil rents and political spoils”.
Much as PDP card-carrying members in borrowed toga of journalists may want to change the narrative, not all Nigerians suffer from collective amnesia. Nigerians remember it was PDP stalwarts that created artificial fuel scarcity at the onset of Obasanjo’s government to stampede him to set up the Petroleum Pricing Product Regulatory Authority (PPPRA) under which PDP leaders and their siblings defrauded Nigeria of about N1.6trillion through fuel subsidy scam. Only last week, the son of retired Brigadier Ahmadu Ali, former PDP chairman and PPPRA chairman, was jailed for 13 years for the same offence.
Nigerians remember Atiku Abubakar supervised the ill-implemented privatisation programme, through which Nigeria’s total investments of about $100billion acquired between 1957 and 1997 were sold to PDP stalwarts and their fronts for a paltry $1.5billion.
We remember the monetization policy was another scam through which PDP stalwarts including ex-Senate President David Mark, ex- House speaker Dimeji Bankole and ex CBN governor Chukwuma Soludo bought their mansions at giveaway prices while other government officials and civil servants converted to personal use properties kept in their temporary care for our children at prices determined by them.
Of course, there was the unbundling of PHCN during which government injected between $8billion and $16billion, taxpayers money only to have the electricity distribution companies sold to stalwarts of PDP some of whom shamelessly donated as much as N5b to President Jonathan’s 2015 re-election bid.
Bode George’s passion for PDP will most likely not erase the memory of how Sambo Dasuki, President Jonathan’s National Security Adviser (NSA) became an ATM without password with leading PDP men and women sharing US$2.1billion loan meant for our fighting soldiers’ hardware and welfare.
We remember very clearly the years of the locusts when for 16 years, PDP stalwarts without self-discipline, ate with their 10 fingers and boasted they would rule for an uninterrupted 60 years.
Without excusing Buhari’s eight years of gross incompetence and Emefiele’s mismanagement of foreign exchange market through forex ‘round tripping’ or even the toll of current President Tinubu’s two years economic policies on Nigerians, we remember Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told Nigerians that Jonathan government was borrowing money to pay salaries. And more foreboding, both she and Chukwuma Soludo predicted that whoever or whatever party took over in 2015 would have an uphill task trying to reverse the damage of 16 years of economic recklessness.
Unfortunately for George, Atiku Abubakar who presided over the sales of our budding industries and Peter Obi, the ‘container economist,’ who as importer of foreign labour, are jointly responsible for our nation’s current nightmare. Driven by greed for power, both have serially betrayed PDP, their party as they did Nigeria.
The tragedy is that they are today jostling for power not on the basis of a new vision to redress the tragedy they brought on a nation where my total estacode as a young journalist going for holiday in London in 1982 was N500, an amount that cannot buy a loaf of bread today, but on the basis of current temporary hardship, the result of their repeated rape on Nigeria.
Condolences to the Uwais Family
I express my condolences to the Uwais Family on the passing of their Patriarch, Honourable Justice Mohammed Lawal Uwais, GCON, the 7th Indigenous Chief Justice of Federal Republic of Nigeria (CJN). May Allah, in His infinite mercy, grant him the highest level of Jannah. Ameen.
Today’s This Day Lawyer publication, is a tribute and testament to CJN Uwais, the longest serving Supreme Court Justice and second longest serving CJN in Nigeria’s history, how he conducted himself and discharged his duties admirably as CJN.
For me, when such a death occurs, I see it as a time for deep reflection on my own life, as it should be for all of us. I start to ask myself questions such as, what positive impact have I made on anyone’s life or on society generally? Will I have enough, to bag me a verdict of ‘Not Guilty’ in ‘Kootu Òlòrun’ (Heavenly/God’s Court)? The death of his Lordship is a reminder that life, no matter how long, holding a position, for no matter what length of time, is temporary; and death is a debt that we all owe God. And, that, even if Section 6(6)(c) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended)(the Constitution) which ousts the jurisdiction of the courts with regard to Chapter II of the Constitution, that is, the Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy, so that Government and its Officials escape ‘worldly’ accountability to the people, aside from the fact that none of us will escape accountability to God for our actions, what will people say about us when we die? Will the report be good, like that of CJN Uwais?
‘Kootu Òlòrun’
I fear for many within the three arms of Government today, that their report and judgement may not be favourable. And, in ‘Kootu Òlòrun’, Justice, which is something that is so precious to the Almighty, will be handed down accordingly! There is no technical justice there! In Akpan v Bob (2010) LPELR-376(SC) per Ibrahim Tanko Muhammad, JSC (later CJN), the Supreme Court held inter alia that “…technical is no justice at all….”; I concur.
However, it appears that courts do not always follow this precedent. Take for example, the recent Supreme Court decision in the Gwandu Emirate Case – can we say that substantive justice was truly served in a 20 year old case in which all the proceedings were set aside by the Supreme Court (in a 3:2 decision), because deposed Emir, Alhaji Mustapha Jokolo allegedly didn’t serve a pre-action notice on the Kebbi State Governor/Government (KSG) before legal proceedings were instituted? While I have not had the benefit of reading the full judgement in this case, I read several news items reporting the matter, including one that quoted excerpts of the judgement.
Pre-Action Notice
In Ntiero v N.P.A. 2008 N.W.L.R. Part 1094 Page 129 at 142 per Ibrahim Tanko Muhammad, JSC (later CJN); per Samuel Akinola Akintan, JSC the Supreme Court held that a Pre-Action Notice “should be in form of a letter usually written by a Plaintiff or his Solicitor to the prospective Defendant giving him notice of intention to institute legal proceedings against him for specified reliefs”. In Abuja Municipal Area Council v C.N. Okoli Transport Co. Ltd (2009) LPELR-3579(CA) the Court of Appeal held that “The rationale behind the jurisprudence of a pre-action notice, is to enable the Defendant know in advance the anticipated action, and a possible amicable settlement of the matter between the parties, without recourse to adjudication by the Court. The purpose of giving notice to a party, is that it is not also taken by surprise, but so that it should have adequate time to prepare to deal with the claim in its defence”.
One of the reasons for the pre-action notice, is for the Defendant to be made aware of the imminent institution of legal proceedings, particularly to stop abuse and fraud, for instance, where some Plaintiffs have been known to file cases surreptitiously and obtain judgements against Defendants without their knowledge. The importance of such a notice or the need for it, varies from one circumstance to the other, even if it is a condition precedent, and in some cases, there may be no real need for it, as it may be superfluous (like saying reverse back!).
Considering the fact that it was the KSG that deposed Alhaji Jokolo, and they were ably represented in the matter, no one can say the Defendants weren’t aware of the case. The question should have been, whether non-compliance with the pre-action protocol impacted the KSG negatively and/or whether it’s absence could not have been treated as a procedural irregularity, and not one that was fatal to the proceedings.
Even if the Kebbi State Chiefs (Appointment and Deposition) Law, required a pre-action notice protocol to be followed where there’s such a dispute, before the institution of legal proceedings, that is, the fulfilment of a condition precedent before litigation, does non-compliance with a pre-action notice protocol necessarily result in the proceedings in a matter being set aside/nullified? The answer is, not always.
I submit that the issue of non-compliance with serving a pre-action notice, should be settled on a case by case basis, and not in a blanket fashion, particularly because circumstances may differ from case to case, and additionally, there are exceptions to the rule of service of pre-action notices, that is, in the case of fundamental rights enforcement, and when the Defendant waives the right to a pre-action notice and doesn’t include the non-service of same as an issue in the pleadings. See the case of Obasa & Ors v Fadeyi (2020) LPELR-51758(CA) per Mistura Omodere Bolaji-Yusuff, JCA.
Matters Arising
Like I mentioned before, since I’m yet to read the Gwandu Emirate case’s judgement, I do not know whether the Kebbi State Government raised the issue of non-compliance to the pre-action notice protocol in their pleadings; but, the truth of the matter is that, the fact that the Defendant defends the suit is enough to imply that he/she is aware of the case and has waived the right to the pre-action notice; because, with or without the pre-action notice, the reasons for its issuance can be fulfilled without it, and it’s essence also fulfilled in its absence, as in the Gwandu Emirate case, that is: 1) knowledge of the case – the Kebbi State Government was aware of the case and participated in it fully; 2) possible amicable settlement – nothing stops parties to an action from adjourning the process of litigation, to allow for settlement. The court usually grants adjournments for report of settlement, and if a settlement is reached in the course of the proceedings, Terms of Settlement are filed, and entered as the judgement of the court in the matter.
My point? In this particular instance, non-service of a pre-action notice does not appear to be more than a mere procedural irregularity, and is nothing fundamental that goes to the root of the case. The non-service of the pre-action notice in the Gwandu Emirate case doesn’t appear to be something so crucial, that it was adjudged to be fatal. See Abuja Municipal Area Council v C.N. Okoli Transport Co. Ltd (Supra).
Additionally, in Alhaji Jokolo’s case, it appears that there were issues of fundamental rights involved, as it was canvassed that he was not given the right to fair hearing before he was deposed, contrary to Section 36(1) of the Constitution. See Muhammed & Ors v ABU Zaria & Anor (2012) LPELR-22366(CA) on the right to fair hearing.
In Akahall & Sons Limited v NDIC (2017) LPELR-41984(SC) per Kumai Bayang Aka’ahs, JSC, the Supreme Court in drawing a distinction between substantive irregularity and procedural irregularity cited the case of Mobil Producing (Nig.) Unlimited v LASEPA 2002 18 N.W.L.R. Part 798 per Ayoola, JSC where it held inter alia thus: “Much stress has been placed on the argument that non-compliance with provisions such as Section 29(2) of the Act (Federal Environmental Protection Agency Act) leads to a question of jurisdiction which can be raised at any time, and which if resolved against the Appellant, renders the entire proceedings a nullity. This rather mechanical approach to the issue, which tends to ignore the distinction between jurisdictional incompetence which is evident on the face of the proceedings, and one which is dependent on ascertainment of facts, leads to error……”.
In the locus classicus, Madukolu & Ors v Nkemdilim (1962) LPELR-24023(SC) per Vahe Robert Bairamian, JSC, the Supreme Court listed the conditions that must be satisfied before a court can exercise its jurisdiction, the last being that the case must be initiated by due process of law and upon the fulfilment of any conditions precedent to the exercise of jurisdiction. By failing to serve the pre-action notice on the Kebbi State Governor, the Apex Court majority decision held that Alhaji Jokolo didn’t initiate his suit via the due process of law, and this had robbed the court of jurisdiction. In short, such an important case which offered a golden opportunity to establish judicial precedent on the deposition of traditional rulers was not decided on its merits, but on procedure and technicalities. I must concur with his Lordship, Ayoola, JSC in Mobil Producing (Nig.) Unlimited v LASEPA (Supra), that this approach by the majority judgement appears to be mechanical. And, perhaps, since the non-service of the pre-action notice didn’t appear to affect the meat of the matter, it should have been treated as a procedural irregularity that wasn’t fatal to the case, so that substantive justice could be done.
I respectfully disagree with the majority decision, as it appears to visit what may have been a mistake on the part of Counsel in not serving the pre-action notice on the Kebbi Governor, on Alhaji Jokolo, thereby denying him of the opportunity of having the actual subject-matter of his case determined by the Apex Court. In Iroegbu & Anor v Okwordu & Anor (1990) LPELR-1539(SC) per Philip Nnaemeka-Agu, JSC, the Supreme Court held inter alia that “It should be regarded as settled by a long line of decided cases, that the courts do not normally punish a litigant for the mistakes of his Counsel”. In Alston S.A. & Anor v Saraki (2000) LPELR-436(SC) per Adolphus Godwin Karibi-Whyte, JSC, the Supreme Court held that “The Courts have always followed the established principle that the fundamental object of adjudication is to decide the rights of the parties, and not to impose sanctions merely for mistakes they make in the conduct of their cases, by deciding otherwise than in accordance with their rights”. I submit that, after 20 years, the majority decision of the Apex Court didn’t decide the Gwandu Emirate case on its merits, and in accordance with the rights of the parties.
Conclusion
In the interest of justice, for especially for so long, it is my humble opinion that, particularly in a situation that ordinarily, on the face of the statement of claim, the court of first instance is clothed with the requisite jurisdiction to hear and determine a matter, where the Apex Court is able to treat a mistake that doesn’t affect the substance of a case as a mere procedural irregularity and determine the appeal on its merits, it should. In Andrew v Oshoakpemhe & Ors (2018) LPELR-53228(CA) per Biobele Abraham Georgewill, the Court of Appeal held thus: “These days, the Courts should or ought to concern themselves less with mere technicality and concern themselves more with matters of real substance and substantial issues in contention between the parties, in order to render substantial justice to them. Long gone are the heydays of technicality riding roughshod over substantial justice! The Courts have since charted a new path, aimed at consolidating substantial justice between the parties and would sparingly accord mere technicality, just for its own sake, any pride of place except in very well deserving cases”. I concur.
In my humble opinion, the Gwandu Emirate Appeal, should have been determined on its merits by the Apex Court, as it would not have been unjust to the KSG to do so. Having been unilaterally deposed as Emir of Gwandu by the KSG, Alhaji Mustapha Jokolo was again denied fair hearing at the Apex Court based on a procedural irregularity – double denial. I believe that this another instance of technical justice being handed down by the majority, over and above substantive justice. Also see the Kebbi State Law, on Statute of Limitations to institute legal proceedings touching on Chieftaincy Matters.
Even though pre-action protocols have been introduced by the various courts in their Civil Procedure Rules as a condition precedent to the institution of legal proceedings, I still believe that the absence of it doesn’t have to be a deal breaker in all cases! Certainly, when a Plaintiff tries to pull a fast one on a Defendant by securing a questionable judgement in his/her absence, the issue of the non-service of a pre-action notice must necessarily be fatal and grounds to nullify such unusual proceedings.
But, when a Defendant fully participates in the case, why should the non-service of a pre-action notice be fatal, when everything a pre-action notice sets out to achieve, still remains fully achievable without it? The existence of this fact in some cases, automatically downgrades the absence of a pre-action notice from a fatal accident to a scratch on the vehicle. We must use some of these mechanisms fairly, as this is the essence of justice, and not in a blanket manner that could lead to the denial of justice for no legitimate or sound reason.
[OPINION] Trump and Musk Feud: A Case for Keeping Business and Politics Separate - Magnus Onyibe
AdminPicture a scenario in which Africa’s richest man, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, invested $250 million in 2023 to support the presidential campaign of APC candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Let’s assume Dangote, being the shrewd businessman he is, found a legal way to avoid violating campaign finance limits that cap how much individuals can contribute to political campaigns.
Now imagine that this strategic support played a major role in Tinubu’s victory two years ago, helping him secure the presidency and giving the APC a majority in both chambers of the National Assembly. As a token of appreciation, President Tinubu appoints Dangote to lead a newly created government agency focused on cutting waste and improving public sector efficiency.
In this imagined scenario, Dangote’s new role comes with the tough task of ending long-standing subsidies on petrol and foreign exchange—two policies widely seen as obstacles to Nigeria’s economic growth since independence in 1960. Because these subsidies have become deeply embedded in public expectations over the past four decades, rolling them back sparks outrage and resistance.
Now take it a step further: suppose Dangote, despite his brilliance, begins behaving inappropriately—perhaps mocking civil servants who lost their jobs or appearing in Aso Rock with his toddler riding on his shoulders in a moment of eccentric public display. President Tinubu, noticing these missteps, decides to relieve him of his duties respectfully and even presents him with a symbolic key to the villa as a gesture of goodwill.
But soon after the House of Representatives passes four key tax reform bills—awaiting Senate approval—Dangote lashes out, branding the bills a “disgusting abomination.” Concerned that the new laws could undermine the business advantages his firm had been enjoying, he threatens to use his influence to ensure APC lawmakers are voted out in the next elections.
This outburst provokes President Tinubu, who publicly quips that Dangote might be suffering from a mental health issue. What should have remained a private policy disagreement between allies begins to spill into the public sphere, with the potential to spiral into a full-blown political crisis.
Dear readers, this imagined scenario is not about Nigeria, President Tinubu, or Aliko Dangote—the visionary industrialist behind the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical complex that’s transforming Nigeria from a raw exporter of crude oil into a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
Rather, this story mirrors the real-life political drama currently unfolding in the United States between President Donald J. Trump—back in office as the 47th president—and Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and owner of Tesla, SpaceX, and other powerful tech ventures.
Their feud highlights the perils of blurring the lines between business and politics. It serves as a cautionary tale for democracies around the world about why these two powerful domains—each critical in its own right—must remain independent to preserve institutional integrity and public trust.
Simply put, the situation described above isn’t unfolding in a struggling third-world nation where democratic principles are still being grasped. Rather, it is playing out in the United States—the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the world, and widely regarded as the global standard-bearer for democracy.
For me, there are several critical takeaways from this evolving saga in America.
First, it reinforces the reality that democracy is still an evolving system of governance, even centuries after its roots in ancient Athens under Cleisthenes in 508 BCE.
Who would have imagined that campaign finance laws in the U.S.—particularly the caps on individual contributions to political candidates—could be so cleverly circumvented? Yet Elon Musk appears to have done just that, reportedly channeling around $250 million into Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign without violating existing laws.
Second, the unfolding events affirm the old adage: “What money cannot do, more money can.” Musk himself boasted that without his financial engineering—leveraging “Super PACs” to funnel as much as $1 million per voter in key swing states—Trump and the Republican Party may not have secured victories in the White House and both chambers of Congress. According to Musk, his financial intervention was instrumental in Trump’s success in the November 5, 2024 election. As he warned at the time, “In November, we fire all Republicans who betrayed Americans.”
This demonstrates that, just like in many fledgling democracies of the developing world, money—not ideology or principles—is often the decisive factor in American elections, with votes going to the highest bidder.
Third, the very public clash between Musk—head of Tesla and SpaceX—and President Trump has peeled back the curtain on the inner workings of the U.S. government. It exposes a long-held double standard: while the West criticizes African nations for implementing public subsidies, it often does the same, albeit in more discreet and sophisticated forms. Through institutions like the World Bank and IMF, wealthy nations pressure developing countries to eliminate subsidies, despite quietly propping up their own industries using similar mechanisms.
This hypocrisy has been starkly revealed by the Trump-Musk fallout. The feud has exposed how Musk’s companies have been supported through generous government contracts and subsidies—an arrangement that mirrors the kind of state-enabled capitalism often criticized in the Global South.
Fourth, the idea that oligarchs are a uniquely Russian or African phenomenon has been shown to be misleading. Musk’s companies, Tesla and SpaceX, are now understood to have benefitted significantly from U.S. government support. In Trump’s own words:
“The easiest way to save money in our Budget—Billions and Billions of Dollars—is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts. I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!”
This outburst came in response to Musk labeling Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” as a “disgusting abomination.”
So, isn’t it both ironic and hypocritical that powerful Western nations instruct poorer countries to avoid government subsidies, while engaging in the same practices behind the scenes? By financially supporting domestic corporations that build wealth through state contracts, the West is not far removed from the same oligarchic systems it routinely condemns.
In conclusion, the Trump-Musk dispute is not merely a clash of egos. It is a revealing episode—one that lays bare the contradictions and vulnerabilities within the democratic and capitalist systems of even the world’s most advanced nation.
The purpose of this intervention is not to dwell on the sensational fallout between Donald Trump and Elon Musk—an alliance turned sour and now dominating headlines across both mainstream and social media, generating intense political controversy. That story has already been heavily dissected and discussed.
Rather, what concerns me is the unfortunate nature of this public spat, which has erupted barely 63 days into what was initially viewed as a promising political partnership between Trump, the President of the United States and figurehead of global democracy, and Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a symbol of technological innovation.
Unsurprisingly, their clash has created a tense atmosphere, casting a dark cloud over the U.S. political landscape—an ironic turn for a nation that prides itself on being the model of democratic governance.
It is this deeper implication that compels me to approach the matter from a different angle—one that better illuminates the significance of this episode for those of us in less developed democracies. My goal is to help readers, especially Africans, understand that the global system does not always treat us fairly, despite appearances.
To illustrate this point, and drawing from my background in international public policy, I chose to analyze the Trump-Musk saga through an analogy—comparing it to a hypothetical but relatable scenario in Nigeria. After all, Nigeria’s political system borrows heavily from the U.S. model, and President Bola Tinubu’s current reform-driven leadership has begun reshaping the country’s economic landscape within just two years of his administration.
With that backdrop, it’s worth examining how the situation unfolded.
When sales of Musk’s Tesla electric vehicles began to decline both in the U.S. and globally—particularly across European markets—President Trump took on the role of an unofficial brand ambassador. In what appeared to be a quid pro quo gesture to repay Musk for his campaign support, Trump staged a symbolic event: turning the White House lawn into a Tesla showroom. On live television watched by billions worldwide, he personally bought a red Tesla and urged others to follow his example.
This dramatic endorsement was part of Trump’s attempt to shield Musk from the backlash he faced after heading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—an agency created to cut government costs. Musk’s involvement in laying off public sector workers had angered many Americans, some of whom responded by boycotting and even vandalizing Tesla cars. This public outrage contributed significantly to Tesla’s financial decline.
On one particularly devastating day, Musk reportedly lost $34 billion in market value, and Tesla’s total losses since Musk became directly involved in politics are estimated at over $150 billion. His decision to blend business with politics—becoming an active player in public governance—appears to have backfired, both for his companies and his personal wealth.
Despite his high-profile role and disruptive efforts, Musk’s agency, DOGE, was only able to reduce U.S. government spending by a mere 1%. Likewise, Trump’s relentless attempts to reverse Tesla and SpaceX’s downward trajectory yielded little success. The damage to Musk’s public image as the face of mass layoffs and agency closures proved too great to overcome.
DOGE, as the name implies, was Trump’s initiative to curb federal spending as part of his broader goal to reduce America’s ballooning budget deficit and national debt—now estimated at over $36 trillion. However, this ambition is not new. Past presidents like Ronald Reagan (40th) and Bill Clinton (42nd) also established similar budget reform initiatives.
In the end, the Trump-Musk clash offers far more than tabloid drama. It serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of blurring the lines between politics and business, and highlights the global double standards that often disadvantage less powerful nations. The same Western systems that lecture developing countries on austerity and public subsidies are themselves deeply intertwined with state-backed corporate interests.
Notably, the efforts by past U.S. administrations to reduce the cost of governance mirror the current situation between Trump and Musk. Under President Ronald Reagan, a similar initiative was launched with the creation of the Grace Commission—officially called the President’s Private Sector Survey on Cost Control. It was led by J. Peter Grace, a prominent CEO of W.R. Grace and Company. The commission aimed to identify ways to make the federal government more efficient and claimed it could save over $424 billion within three years.
Despite the high expectations, the commission’s recommendations were not fully implemented, and critics argue that the actual impact on government efficiency and cost savings was modest at best.
Likewise, during President Bill Clinton’s tenure, his administration introduced a major reform program known as the National Performance Review (NPR), led by Vice President Al Gore. The NPR was a comprehensive effort to restructure the federal government with a focus on improving efficiency, cutting waste, and delivering better services to citizens. Its vision was to build a government that “works better and costs less.” The initiative resulted in 119 key recommendations, including downsizing agencies and eliminating redundant programs. The NPR ultimately claimed to have saved $108 billion and improved government operations while also reducing overhead staffing.
Clearly, Trump and Musk are not the first high-profile figures—one from the political world and the other from business—to attempt reforming the American government’s spending habits. Yet, despite their intentions, their partnership has turned acrimonious. The tension between Trump, intent on “Making America Great Again,” and Musk, determined to inject private-sector efficiency into public service, has spiraled into a toxic feud.
Both men should recognize that even past collaborations between top political and business minds—such as Reagan and Grace, or Clinton and Gore—fell short of achieving the kind of transformational government efficiency they envisioned. Their failure should offer some perspective and encourage both Trump and Musk to de-escalate their conflict and move beyond their mutual frustration over their unmet goals.
Following their fallout, Tesla’s stock has taken a significant hit. As of last Thursday, it’s reported that Tesla has lost up to $150 billion in market value over the last six months. Meanwhile, Musk’s businesses have reportedly benefited from up to $34 billion in U.S. government contracts—support that could be jeopardized if the feud with Trump continues.
This raises an important question now being asked by political observers in the U.S.: Can these two power players—once close allies just six months ago, and now adversaries—repair their relationship?
On what was Musk’s last day in the White House as a government adviser, Trump symbolically handed him the “Keys to the White House.” But any illusion of a cordial parting quickly shattered when Musk publicly condemned Trump’s signature tax and spending plan—the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”—as a “disgusting abomination.” Musk’s critique struck a nerve, especially since the bill contradicted the aims of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which Musk had headed in a failed attempt to streamline public spending. His aggressive role in implementing job cuts drew widespread criticism, particularly since Musk was unelected and seen as wielding unchecked influence over government workers’ livelihoods.
This political-business breakdown in the U.S. brings to mind a similar episode in Nigeria, which illustrates why mixing business with politics is a risky endeavor. After former Vice President Atiku Abubakar left office (1999–2007), his business interests, particularly in Intels—an oil and gas logistics firm he co-founded—suffered a steep decline. Intels had thrived under favorable government patronage, operating a lucrative private port in Port Harcourt. But after Atiku’s party lost power to the opposition APC in 2015, government contracts dried up.
As the firm’s financial standing deteriorated, Atiku was forced to sell his equity stake in a bid to keep it afloat. Following his divestment, his spokesman issued a statement to the press, confirming the exit
“Yes, he has divested from Intels and redirected his investments into other sectors of the economy to generate returns and create jobs.”
Reflecting on the ongoing fallout between Donald Trump and Elon Musk, one is reminded of the tragic political journey of Nigerian billionaire-turned-politician, Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola (MKO). Although the circumstances differ, there are thematic similarities. Abiola, who amassed his fortune primarily through government telecommunications contracts—much like Musk’s ties to U.S. government contracts in the tech sector—entered the political arena in 1993 by contesting the presidency. Sadly, his political aspirations ended in tragedy, resulting in the loss of both his wealth and ultimately his life.
While Musk hasn’t directly pursued the presidency, his veiled threat to back the Democrats in the upcoming election as retaliation against Republicans for passing Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” has raised eyebrows. It suggests the possibility that Musk may be positioning himself to influence the outcome of the 2028 elections in favor of the Democrats—just as he was instrumental in helping Trump and the Republicans secure victory in 2024. If so, Musk could be transitioning from a politically interested entrepreneur into an active political player.
In the present feud between two former allies—President Trump, who may have a fragile ego, and Musk, known for his confrontational approach—the stakes are high. Trump, a seasoned political fighter, is unlikely to back down easily, while Musk’s endurance in the face of sustained political and financial pressure remains to be seen. Whether he can absorb continuous blows to his businesses, including Tesla and SpaceX, could determine if the two men will reconcile or drift permanently apart.
President Trump, now in his final term, arguably has less to lose. However, he still needs the Senate to pass his flagship legislation, the Big Beautiful Bill. Musk’s opposition to the bill is already casting doubt on its swift approval. Encouragingly, Musk seems to be stepping back from his confrontational stance, as evidenced by his decision to delete a provocative post in which he threatened to begin decommissioning SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft in response to Trump’s comments about canceling government contracts.
Though the U.S. is no Russia, the Trump–Musk standoff evokes parallels with the dramatic falling-out between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late mercenary leader of the Wagner Group. Once close allies, their power struggle escalated into an armed confrontation and ended with Prigozhin’s untimely death in a plane explosion.
The conflict also mirrors Putin’s past clashes with influential Russian oligarchs, many of whom were jailed or had their assets seized after falling out with the Kremlin. One such example is Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former owner of Yukos Oil, who was imprisoned on charges of tax evasion and other offenses. In response, several Russian oligarchs fled the country, investing their wealth in the West—particularly in the U.K., where Roman Abramovich famously bought Chelsea Football Club. He eventually lost the club following Western sanctions on Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Despite these grim parallels, there is still hope for reconciliation between Trump and Musk. Their personal and political futures would both benefit from de-escalating tensions. Continued verbal and written hostilities—no matter how indirect—could prove damaging to both men, especially as mere words can spark consequences that are irreversible in both business and politics.
Drawing from Nigeria’s own political-business landscape, we’ve seen high-profile feuds eventually resolved. A case in point is the past fallout between Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, and Nigeria’s third-richest businessman, Femi Otedola. Though their dispute was acrimonious, the two have since rekindled their friendship and now enjoy a closer relationship than before. That precedent gives reason to believe Trump and Musk—two powerful figures who still need each other—might also find a path to reconciliation.
This optimism is further supported by comments from Musk’s father, Errol Musk, who revealed that Elon suffers from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). If the fallout was, in part, driven by psychological distress and frustration over unmet expectations, healing could begin once emotions settle and rational interests take over.
Yet a broader concern remains: If Musk is eventually barred—by legal, institutional, or moral constraints—from using his vast wealth to influence electoral outcomes in the U.S., what prevents him from trying the same approach in other countries, especially in Europe? If he refrains, will other billionaires emulate his strategy, leveraging wealth to influence political outcomes under the maxim that “what money cannot do, more money can”?
Ultimately, the Trump–Musk saga offers a valuable lesson for democracies everywhere. It underscores the dangers of blurring the lines between business and politics and raises critical questions about the future of political financing, influence, and accountability in democratic systems.
Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, and development strategist.
“When lions battle, jackals flee.” Isaac Newton wrote that to his bitter rival, Gottfried Leibniz. It was a barbed remark on their feud over who between them first invented calculus. The more you read of the mutual respect those two had for each other, the more you wonder why they ended their respective careers in very bitter, reckless animosity; the more you also ponder over the cost of that fight and whether it was worth the troubles.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos are two big men who are not equals. One is the boss, the other the boss’s boy. They are not equals, so, there cannot be a rivalry between them over feats and achievements. But they fight; and it is right here in the open. I’ve heard people demanding to know what they are fighting over. We do not know. Let no one talk about Lagos speakership. The sack of Mudasiru Obasa, which was as abortive as Dimka’s coup of 1976, was just what it was – a symptom; it was a reaction to something; there was an underline cause. What was it?
Sanwo-Olu and his boss are no Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz and so their fight couldn’t be over who takes the priority on a matter designed to help humanity. If there is a delectable Queen Cleopatria somewhere, I would have drawn a parallel between what is unfolding in Lagos and what unfolded between Rome’s Octavian (Augustus Caesar) and Mark Anthony. But there is no seductress in the mix, I will, therefore, not deliver to age what it is no longer capable of tweaking.
So, what did Sanwo-Olu do? Or what did he not do? Both sides are not talking. All we’ve seen was an ungracious rejection of a friendly gesture; the snub of a handshake by the more powerful potentate. We’ve also seen a convenient skip of the junior power where he ought to speak.
Some people are happy, clinking glasses over the power buffetings in Lagos. They drink to the health of the feud; they wish it greater vigour; they wish its fire is unquenchable. These are people who do not like Lagos and its politics at all and who have been their victims. They see the fight as the elixir that would cleanse the land of all its sins and cure it of its sicknesses. They talk of power and its excesses. They point at Akinwumi Ambode, the man who was brought low so that Sanwo-Olu could ride high. They remember Babatunde Fashola who escaped breathlessly simply because he was like Coca-Cola, more popular and successful than the parent company. They point at a Governor Bola Tinubu of Lagos who serially used three deputy governors in a tenure of eight years. If I were the president, I would also look at this unedifying statistics and repack my big and small intestines.
A leader should be very careful on the way he treats his people, particularly, the companions who look up to him. There was an Orangun of Ila who bulldozed his way to power with charms, and then elevated the humiliation of his principal chiefs to an art. An Ila historian wrote that the king’s “humiliating treatment (of the chiefs) reached intolerable proportions when he frowned at seeing the Iwarefa (the kingmakers) in decent attires. When a chief made a new garment, he was obliged to excise the breast and patch it with a rag.” But every reign, no matter how glorious or inglorious, must come to an end. How did it end for that oba? He didn’t die on the throne. His character gave him a fate which made him farmer outside power. Ó fi’gbá ìtóòrò mu’mi nínú oko (he drank water with ìtóòrò melon calabash on the farm). I suggest you read ‘The Orangun Dynasty’, a very rich 1996 book on the history of the Igbomina stock of the Yoruba, authored by Ila Orangun’s very first university graduate, Prince Isaac Adebayo; check pages 40 and 41.
A leader is a masquerade; he must not tear his own veil. When a leader makes and unmakes subordinates, he rends his own cover. “Ènìyàn l’aso mi” is a Yoruba expression which, in English means “people are my clothes; they are my covering.” As a Yoruba proverb, it emphasizes the importance of people in people’s lives. Whatever clothes the masquerade wears is that ‘thing’ that makes the wearer an Egungun. He must protect it because it is his store of power. But my people say power is like medicine; it intoxicates. A researcher adds that “ultimately, the accumulation of power becomes dangerous even to its owners.” Is that why someone saw “a link between mask and menace”?
So, when we interrogate the use of power by the one we have come to call Lagos, we should always remind him that the costume is the sacred adornment which people see, respect and venerate in the masquerade. For a leader, his principal boys and girls are his costume, they are his cover. He needs them when harmattan comes with its fury. And harmattan will come whenever the masquerade repairs back to the grove when the festival is over, and it will be over.
Even lions, kings of the jungle, rely on strong bonds within their prides for survival and well-being. There is an old Irving King song on this: “The more we get together/The merrier we’ll be.” That song emphasizes human interconnectedness; the support embedded in community.
Jackals are opportunists, and they are many in this Lagos fight. Newton’s feuding-lion imagery is an evocation of the themes of strength, of hierarchy, and of consequence. It defines the strained relationship of one big expert with the other big man. The other part of his proverb ‘bombs’ the miserable jackals, minions who lurk around the battlefield, who thrive in chaos and on scraps from the feuding powers.
American novelist, Herman Melville, says a thousand fibers connect us with our fellow men. We should not live our lives as if we exist only for ourselves. Public ‘spanking’ of a governor for unknown and unsaid sins is petty. A president should have snubbed rebuff as his option of engagement. If I were him, If a ‘boy’ offended me, I would just ‘face front’ and concentrate on delivering the Chinaware I carry unbroken. If your load is a pot of palm oil, avoid stone throwers.
But the president is not pacifist me. He enjoys fighting wars after wars. He is like Sango who desperately desired a fight but found no one to fight. Sango looked round and pounced on the wall and wrestled with it. There was also an Aare Ona Kakanfo who itched for a battle and could get none. He stoked a rebellion at home against himself and by himself violently put it down. Because of this and many more like it, the man was nicknamed Aburúmáku (the wicked one who refuses to die).
Are there no elders again where the feuding feudal lords come from? Borrowing lines from Ulli Beier, I would say that now that men appear to have failed to stop this war, women should be called upon to come and kill the fire. Our mothers are like Osun, “the wisdom of the forest; the wisdom of the river. Where the doctor failed, she cures with fresh water. Where medicine is impotent, she cures with cool water.”
The first lady should therefore step out, open her Bible (KJV) to Mark 4:39 and read to her husband: “And he arose, and rebuked the wind, and said unto the sea, Peace, be still. And the wind ceased, and there was a great calm.”
If she does that, I will be encouraged to give the president two lines from William Shakespeare: “Come, wife, let’s in, and learn to govern better;/ For yet may England curse my wretched reign” (2 Henry VI, IV, ix, 4).
If our president’s reign won’t be cursed for wretchedness, he should prioritise the people’s welfare over serial petty fights with his boys. Nigerians are panting at home and reeling in pains at work; on the road, they groan. They are not entertained at all by presidential beer parlour brawls like Musician Ayinla Omowura’s last fight. You don’t become king and still keep trysts with crickets. No.
One of the first jokes I picked when I moved to Ibadan 30 years ago is that failure of patronage is the only reason a drummer would go to Oke Ado. The Ibadan surmised that the Ijebu who lived almost exclusively at Oke Ado part of Ibadan never ever got moved to spend a dime on bards.
Those who minted that joke should come back from the dead and see what we see now with the Ijebu. When the day breaks tomorrow, I will go to Oja’ba in Ibadan and ask folks there why their ancestors with relish said that the Ijebu did not appreciate good music and would not put their money on it. The Ijebu I see today do what the Ibadan said they would not do. In a magnificent way, they mass in their capital annually and stage a spectacular festival of culture and splendour. They call it Ojude Oba (the King’s Forecourt). It is an annual festival of sumptuous songs and dance, a parade of success and cultural opulence. They held another edition yesterday, and it is already contagious. Other Yoruba towns appear to be getting bitten by the Ijebu bug. We watch as they evolve.
The Ijebu are a very scrupulous people. It is in their oríkì that their fathers had six tubers of yam: they ate two, sold two and offered two to their gods. You can ponder that again: with moderate six survival items, they did justice to their present; justice to their future through trade and investment; justice to the divine who held the rope of life. Anyone who approaches life methodically like this is not likely to fail in any enterprise. In nuanced ways, the oríkì suggests that those who managed the six tubers did not eat with ten fingers. Their descendants still do not do it today: they party hard but they also work hard and trade intelligently; they worship God with utmost devotion.
I watched a short video clip of the Ojude Oba event at 8am Sunday (yesterday). I grinned seeing everywhere in immaculate lush green, meticulous. Sponsors of the event, Mike Adenuga’s Globacom, has done it for a record twenty years. And both company and owner say they won’t stop doing so forever. Patriotism is love of country. So, what is love of home? “In love of home”, says Charles Dickens, “the love of country has its rise.” That is what Adenuga and his Globacom commit themselves to with Ojude Oba till eternity. With Globacom’s heavy lifting, Ojude Oba has become the biggest cultural festival in Nigeria today. They say they are taking it even further than where it is. Something there to copy by every big, rich man and woman from other towns. The ones who feel too big to lift their homestead to glow will likely live ‘homeless.’ We all should know, as William J. Bennett did, that “home is a shelter from storms – all sorts of storms.”
I did not read history, but I am a lover of history and a believer in what it teaches. I keep seeing in the past the road that led to today, and a possible pathway to the future. T. O. Ogunkoya, author of ‘The Early History of Ijebu’ published in December 1956 offers some glimpses into the elements that make up the Ijebu gene:
“Nobody knows the date of the first migration to Ijebu or the course that it took. Tradition states that it was led by a man named Olu-Iwa accompanied by two warrior companions, Ajebu and Olode. Olu-Iwa settled at Iwade, for Ijebu-Ode itself did not, as yet, exist. Ajebu was instructed to mark out with fire the boundary of the new land. He went westward to the lagoon and marked out the boundaries to the North, South and East as well. To Olode was given the task of marking out and planning the future city, a task which took him more than three years. So well did Ajebu and Olode do their work that the new town was named after them as ‘Ajebu-Olode’, now corrupted and called Ijebu-Ode.”
The writer of that history said “there was ample evidence in favour of this tradition. He wrote that “In Ijebu-Ode today there stands in a prominent place in Olode Street a tomb dedicated to him and bearing the inscription ‘The resting place of Olode.’ In Imepe Street there can be seen a tomb dedicated to the memory of Ajebu. It may be taken for granted that these two men are historical figures whose names have been perpetuated in the name of the city.
Ogunkoya wrote that there is another theory of the origin of the name. He said “Portuguese maps of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries showed cuidade de Jabu or ‘the city of Ijebu.’ Now it is argued that the Ijebu, in common with people of similar ancestry, used the word Ode as a generic name for a town. So the Itschekri people had Ode Itschekri (Warri). The Ondo had Ode Ondo and the Ilaje Ode Ilaje. In Wadai (Sudan) there was an Ode Ijebu, suggesting the transference of the name of the ancient home to the new. In support of this view it is to be noted that until very recently all the village people in the province referred to the city simply as Ode. As they themselves are Ijebus they merely point to their capital town without associating their name with it.”
Note the meticulous mapping of the boundary and the planning of the city. Note that the exercise reportedly took whole three years! Note the communal appreciation of the pioneers who got the job done. Put all those side by side what other chapters of their history say of their survival as a people. They pay attention to details. They valourize themselves as masters of money. They say they’d been spending shillings before the white man arrived (Omo a n’áwó silè k’Óyìnbó tó dé/ Òyìnbó dé tán owó òún pò si). I plan to ask my Ijebu friends what that means. I will tell you whatever they tell me.
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Your weeping is turning into joy! You know the story of this woman married to a Levite from the Clan of Zuph called Elkanah. Although, he had two wives – Hannah and Peninnah, Elkanah loved Hannah so much, even when she was yet to have children for him. Peninnah, the co –wife already had children for their husband, and instead of being thankful, decided to taunt the other wife. Look at the way bible put it, “But Peninnah made fun of Hannah because the Lord had closed her womb. Year after year it was the same – Peninnah would taunt Hannah as they went to the Tabernacle. Hannah would finally be reduced to tears and would not even eat.”1 Samuel 1: 6-7
I want you to fully appreciate the condition of this woman – Hannah. This was a young, beautiful, promising woman who left her father’s house and got married, with the hope of having all the blessings that go with marriage – including children. But this was not to be. Though, she had a loving husband, the co-wife made her life miserable. Each time Hannah made some positive efforts to move on with life in spite of being barren, the co-wife Peninnah would quickly remind of her the position of a barren woman in a family, especially in a polygamous one. And as a result, Hannah would soak herself with tears. In very deep anguish she would cry bitterly and even refuse to eat. This was the situation of this woman for so many years.
You may not appreciate what this woman was going through unless you have been in a similar situation. One of the greatest trials any one could go through in this life is childlessness. This explains the reason why people go to any length to seek the fruit of the womb. Some even step into forbidden places. Others drink horrible concoctions, just to see that they have babies like others. Some weep uncontrollably in their closets and ask God why He should allow them to pass such situations. Yes! Children are that important. Children are like crown on their parents. They are sweet companions for the present, security for your old age and also a guarantee for the continuation of your name and a link to your next generation. Even God recognizes the importance of them and promised that no barren woman shall be found in His house. Then, you may also listen to the Psalmist. I think his is a profound declaration on the importance of children, “Children are a gift from the LORD, they are a reward from him. Children born to a young man are like sharp arrows in a warrior’s hands. How happy is the man whose quiver is full of them! He will not be put to shame, when he confronts his accusers at the City gates” Psalm 127: 3-5.
Did you read that? That is true. Hannah understood all this and each time the reality dawns on her, the bible says that she would be reduced to tears. Her life was bitter. She even refused to be consoled by her husband’s love and care. Yes, because what she wanted was a child and nothing less. You will agree with me that this woman was humiliated, and was actually sitting in ashes and shame. Yes, for a very long time! There may be a particular thing you’re expecting from God; that is paramount to your destiny. Or you could even be exactly in Hannah’s shoes – childless, unproductive. I want to tell you that all hope is not yet lost. We have a God that can turn ashes into beauty. I have seen Him giving children to hitherto childless couple. What He did in the bible He is repeating even in own time. He has not changed. He said that He made you to be fruitful. So you must not accept that you’re barren. He wants you to be fruitful in every area of your life.
Professor Jibril Muhammed Aminu, formerly known as Aminu Song, passed away on June 5, 2025. May his great soul find eternal rest. It was with deep sorrow the ruling elites rose in unison praising his undeniable academic brilliance. True, the demise of a member of any group reminds the rest that despite whatever acquisitions made, they are mere mortals.
The Presidency described the late cardiologist as one of the country’s most decorated medical professionals who “straddled his profession and politics exceptionally, bringing erudition and brilliance to statecraft”. Vice President Kashim Shettima claimed Aminu was “the last of the great titans, an iconic figure, who enormously contributed to the development of the nation… He is irreplaceable.”
Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, wrote that his contributions in medicine, academia and “the growth of democracy in Nigeria remain legendary, and his demise a huge loss to humanity”. Ex-Senate President Bukola Saraki described him as “a rare kind of public servant, one who brought excellence and purpose to every role he held”. One-time National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Chief Olabode George, posited that Aminu was: “A man of great intellect and integrity, whose service to humanity and Nigeria, inspired generations.” The tributaries of tributes continue to flow from various sources, but they are, essentially, a single narration, and a different interpretation of his role is possible.
For instance, he came to national attention in 1978 when as the Secretary of the Nigerian University Commission, NUC, he announced astronomical per cent increases in feeding and accommodation fees across all universities. This announcement led to the April 1978 Students Uprising in which students, school children and some other Nigerians were shot dead. The argument could be that he was ‘merely doing his job’. But even at that he showed no empathy.
One argument could be that he was serving in a military dictatorship, and therefore had no choice but to follow orders. However, when five years later, the country was under constitutional order and he was fully in charge of a tertiary institution as the Vice Chancellor of the University of Maiduguri, UNIMAID, the Supreme Court found he was intolerant, dictatorial, dismissive of basic rules and procedures, excessive in reaction and arbitrary in handling grievances. This was to the extent of denying about five hundred students he accused of crimes, including arson, fair hearing.
The crises in the university began in January 1983 when a Professor of Medicine who was virtually in charge of the new School of Medicine, was late in resumption from the Christmas break due to the well-known epileptic flight schedules from Lagos. When the Professor, said to be a professional mentor of Aminu, arrived, he had a query waiting for him. Angered that there was a lack of empathy, he tore the query and took the next flight back to Lagos. His exit threatened the medicine programme and the pioneer students of the faculty were told they could not take their final examinations. They took their case to the Students Union with Paul Zadok, later the Hamman of Bachama, as President.
The union tried to persuade Aminu to reach some understanding with the Professor so the medical students would not lose the session, he refused. So the students in solidarity with their colleagues in Medicine decided to boycott classes. On February 2, 1983, the student union called a rally on the issue. The leaders lost control, and tidal waves of students swept through the houses of the Vice Chancellor, Deputy Vice Chancellors, Registrar, bookshop and staff club, damaging property. An enraged Aminu described the incident as a carefully planned but hurriedly executed insurrection.
He claimed some 500 students out of the 4,000-student population were guilty. This number was later scaled down to an alleged core of 100 students. Names were compiled, investigation panel headed by one of the victims established, and the Senate convened. All the 4,000 students were surcharged, and 29 of them, including the union leadership, were expelled. They were found guilty of willful destruction, arson, looting and assault. The students went to the High Court of Justice of Borno State where Justice Adagun set aside the disciplinary measures. The basis was that the students were not given fair hearing, including the right to cross examine any witness, or for their alibi to be checked out.
The university proceeded to the Appeal Court before Nasir, Akanbi, Agbaje, Ogundare and Abdullahi, JJ.C.A. The Appeal Court, while agreeing with the High Court that the students were not given fair hearing, however, ruled that the lower court ought to have referred the matter back to the university to correct itself. The students, with Chief Gani Fawehinmi handling their case pro bono, headed for the Supreme Court before Obaseki, Eso, Nnamani, Uwais, Coker, Kawu, Oputa JJ.S.C.
The Supreme Court found that the university grossly violated the fundamental rights of the students and ruled that: “Government functionaries, be they legislative, executive, or judicial, cannot act in contravention of such rights and if the rights are to be taken away, it is the Constitution itself which has to be amended.” Secondly, that the: “Disciplinary Board into which the Senate at its meeting was constituted did not investigate the matter or conduct any inquiry of its own… It never satisfied itself that the appellants were guilty of the offences charged before proceeding to impose the punishment.”
Thirdly, that: “Guilt in criminal matters is left for the ascertainment of courts of law or other tribunals before it is accepted and acted upon by Administrative Tribunals.” Also, that since the students were accused of destroying university property under the institution’s authorities: “The vice-chancellor and other officers are vital witnesses and cannot be a judge in their own cause. It is also the law that a visitor cannot be a judge in his own cause.” So, the Supreme Court ruled in favour of the students and they returned to their studies.
There are also encomiums showered on Aminu for serving the country as Education and then, Petroleum Minister for three years from 1989, and in the 1994 National Conference. However, there are those that can point out that these are in the service of the brutal military regimes of Babangida and Abacha which ousted the jurisdiction of the courts, were anti-democracy and sought to perpetuate themselves in power.
In the post-military era, he was appointed Ambassador to the United States by President Olusegun Obasanjo that he had served in the 1970s when the latter was a military dictator. He was also a two term Senator. People have the fundamental right to assess Aminu from their perspectives. All I pray is that God Almighty forgives him his short comings. Ameen.
“Mice are mice; that is why mouse traps work.”
President Bola Tinubu’s fresh request to the National Assembly to approve external loans totalling $24.14 billion is tiresome.
Once again, it raises concerns that Nigeria is hurtling towards a fiscal precipice, with public debt increasing at an alarming rate even as government revenues show signs of recovery.” Editorialof a national newspaper, June 1, 2025. The Editorial was right about the likely repercussions of the new loan request, but, wrong in the assertion that “government revenues show signs of recovery”. Quite the contrary; when government revenues are measured in dollars, rather than Naira, the picture of dismal performance will be revealed. It is because the government’s dollar revenues, have declined relative to budget, that the FG is once again going cap in hand again in search of loans. In fact, VANGUARD had anticipated the loan request in articles published earlier this year.
BUDGETARY ILLUSION
“The most obstinate illusions are ultimately broken by facts.”
Trevor Roper, 1914-2003, in The Last Days of Hitler.
Nothing is more dangerous than a positive and convincing illusion. Most government leaders, in times of social and economic stress, dispense them liberally. Jonathan, Buhari and now, Tinubu have led us into a greater debt trap for the same reason. The major cause is budgetary illusion. The three Presidents fell into the same trap which is now creating a swelling tide of fiscal gloom threatening the nation’s future. The $24.14 billion loan request might not even be the last in 2025. The most unfortunate fact about the loan lies in the fact that no realistic revenue projections can reassure Nigerians that it can be repaid without more borrowing.
At the heart of our perpetual fiscal gloom is the refusal of every President to admit that Nigeria cannot now, if ever, produce 2 million barrels per day, 2mbpd, of fuel and export that quantity. May 2025 production figures will soon be available; and if it follows the pattern from January to April, the real output would be about 1.5mbpd. The shortfall of 500,000 barrels per day or 14 million barrels for the month will result in a negative revenue variance of $1.125 billion for the month alone or $5.625 billion cumulatively for five months.
Additionally, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, the budget for 2025 was more of a political document than an economic projection. My personal experience on the budget committee of a US multinational taught me that the success or failure of every budget, given foreseeable occurrences, depends on no more than five factors whose forecasts must be as accurate as possible. For Nigeria, the most important are: crude oil exports; average crude prices, exchange rates and internally generated revenue. The disparity, especially negative, between the actual and the projected figures should not be too wide; otherwise the budget is in trouble. Deficits will exceed what was budgeted and fresh loans will be needed. That has been the national experience since 2013. On the last Saturday of December 2024, I made a forecast in the WEEKEND VANGUARD; stating emphatically that “crude oil exports will probably not exceed 1.5mbpd in 2025”. The FG budgeted 2.06mbpd. As we start June, five months are already behind us. The results explain why Tinubu is asking for $24.14bn loans. Instead of 2mbpd, Nigeria has produced just about 1.5mbpd; 42 million barrels a month and 210 million barrels in five months and about $8.6bn negative variance has occurred. That is bad enough. Every single barrel produced had been sold for less than the $75 budget benchmark by at least $10; that has created another $2.1bn shortfall. The request for $24.14bn must have included anticipated negative variances in the last seven months.
“Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990kb/d in Q125 to 650kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use.” Google Report.
Nigerian governments, even when Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was Co-ordinating Minister for the Economy, under President Jonathan, had been behaving as if the nation is an island existing by itself without regard to global economic events and our obligations to organisations worldwide which restrain our freedom to act – particularly with respect to crude oil production and export. This particular illusion has resulted each year in unintended consequences. Okonjo-Iweala started it in 2013 when she presented the Medium Term Expenditure Framework, MTEF, which projected 2mbpd of crude to be produced by Nigeria for 2013 to 2015. This projection was made against the background of the quota approved for Nigeria by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC – which was 1.7mbpd. Everybody in government, then and now, knows that Nigeria could not unilaterally exceed its production quota without serious repercussions.
Furthermore, Nigeria’s Minister for Petroleum Resources who attended the meeting at which the quotas were determined for each country, was aware of the major reason. High crude prices were threatening a global recession; demand was declining; and the only way to keep prices up was to reduce supply. Why the FG proposed 2mbpd in the 2014 Budget remains a mystery given Okonjo-Iweala’s grasp of economics. The target was missed in 2014; yet, the FG went ahead and projected the same figure in the 2015 Budget – with OPEC quota remaining the same. Again, Nigeria failed to produce 2mbpd of crude.”Most of the problems a President has to face have their roots in the past.”US President Harry Truman, 1884-1972.
Buhari inherited a budget designed to fail from Jonathan. He compounded the calamity by taking three steps which have paved the way for the hell in which Nigerians are living now. One, he delayed the appointment of Ministers; he appointed an Accountant as Finance Minister; and, above all, he accepted the 2mbpd fiction as the basis of the eight budgets he presented to the National Assembly, NASS. Tinubu received the 2023 Budget which was doomed to fail right from the start and followed Buhari down the familiar road of basing budgets on wishful thinking instead of the hard rock of reality. Predictably, Tinubu, has presented two straight budgets based on 2mbpd. The 2024 Budget failed woefully. The 2025 is now getting unravelled by the global factors which all our Presidents and their economic advisers choose to ignore.
THE RISE OF EV; THE DEATH OF PETROL FUELLED CARS
“Everything comes to an end.” That was wisdom drilled into my head by my parents; which had been reinforced by studies and personal experience. The rise and enduring reign of fossil fuels were made possible by vehicles driven by their products.
The Age of Oil is over. China, the USA, Europe and now India, account for almost 75 per cent of global consumption of fuel. All of them are moving away from fossil fuel. Even Saudi is building hydrogen fuel capacity. Very few new cars requiring petrol are now being produced. Who will consume 2mbpd of crude – assuming we can produce it?
Tinubu urgently needs people who can write realistic financial budgets.
I still remember the evening I first heard the term “Japa.” It came in the form of a meme—“If you’re seeing this, pack your bags”—plastered over an image of a dusty road disappearing into a golden horizon. The joke wasn’t just funny—it was painfully accurate. “Japa,” a Yoruba word meaning “to flee,” has evolved into a cultural and economic phenomenon, serving as a shorthand for the restless exodus of Nigerians, particularly the young and educated, in search of a better life. What was once a quiet movement of the desperate and the privileged has now morphed into a defining feature of Nigeria’s national psyche. It reflects not only a failure of the state but also the boundless courage of individuals who continue to chase dignity, safety, and opportunity across oceans.
Beneath the headline-grabbing migration figures lie deeply human stories, complicated by trade-offs that span continents and generations. When Aisha, a surgical nurse from Kaduna, arrived in London in 2022, she secured an NHS position that paid her over three times her salary in Nigeria. Her new life was a dream on paper—financial stability, functional healthcare, and reliable electricity. But the price was steep: her mother, widowed and diabetic, was left behind with no one to accompany her to clinic visits. Her younger siblings, used to Aisha’s help with tuition and groceries, now relied on irregular remittance flows and prayer. Her calls home, filled with reassurance and cheer, barely masked the weight of her absence. Aisha’s story is not exceptional—it is replicated across tens of thousands of households in Lagos, Yenegoa,Owerri, Ilorin, and beyond.
In 2023, Nigeria received an estimated $20.13 billion in remittances, the highest in sub-Saharan Africa and one of the few bright spots in the country’s bleak economic landscape. Remittances now account for nearly 4% of Nigeria’s GDP—greater than direct foreign investment — and serve as a vital buffer for families struggling with inflation, food insecurity, and crippling unemployment. These inflows fund school fees, hospital bills, building projects, and sometimes entire family businesses. For many, having a child or sibling abroad is the difference between collapse and survival. But money doesn’t hug you. It doesn’t walk your grandmother to the mosque or church. It doesn’t explain puberty to your 13-year-old son now growing up without a father figure.
What’s less visible but just as real is the emotional price of migration. There’s the guilt of leaving ageing parents in precarious health, the pain of missing births and funerals, and the slow erosion of intimacy with friends and siblings. Couples stretch their marriages across time zones, relying on WhatsApp calls that feel both immediate and artificial. Children born abroad grow up with hybrid identities, sometimes unable to speak their parents’ language or understand the values they left behind.
The psychological price of migration is huge. Take Emmanuel, a computer science graduate from Enugu who arrived in Toronto in late 2023. At first, he thrived—new friends, a buzzing tech hub, crisp winter mornings. Within weeks, though, he began waking at 3 a.m., heart pounding, unable to shake the fear that he was alone in a strange land. Migraines set in, his appetite vanished, and he drifted into a fog of irritability and despair—a textbook case of the “Ulysses syndrome,” an immigrant stress reaction marked by anxiety, insomnia, and somatic pains. A 2020 meta-analysis of Nigerian-American immigrants found that higher acculturative stress was strongly linked to poorer mental health outcomes. Emmanuel endured six months of silent struggles before reaching out for therapy, finally realising that the cost of leaving home included the erosion of his well-being.
Nigeria, as a state, teeters between the benefits and burdens of this migration wave. On the one hand, remittances boost foreign reserves, provide fiscal stability, and enhance the purchasing power of recipient households. Diaspora investments are also reshaping the tech ecosystem. Diaspora entrepreneurs in London and Toronto have launched some of Europe’s fastest-growing fintech startups. Additionally, Nigeria ranks second only to India in terms of long-term migrants to the UK, with approximately 120,000 Nigerians relocating there as of June 2024. Nigerian-led startups in the UK, Canada, and the US are channelling capital, ideas, and tools back home, with Lagos fast becoming a West African tech hub despite its infrastructural challenges. Culturally, the country is undergoing a kind of global flowering—Afrobeat now dominates international music charts, Nollywood films are streaming on Netflix, and Nigerian chefs are redefining fine dining in New York, Toronto, and Berlin.
But the cost of this “success” is staggering. Over 75,000 Nigerian professionals have emigrated between 2019 and 2024. The health sector has been particularly hard hit: the Nigerian Medical Association estimates that more than 50% of registered doctors are practising abroad, widening the patient-doctor gap at home and prompting emergency staffing drives that still fall short. In 2023 alone, over 3,600 nurses were licensed to practice in the United Kingdom. University classrooms, once bustling with brilliant lecturers, now depend on visiting professors and part-time faculty. Hospitals are forced to recruit unqualified assistants to fill gaps. In the public sector, civil service talent is drying up, with young officers resigning en masse. The result is a talent vacuum that weakens national institutions just when they are most needed.
Government responses have been largely reactive and uncoordinated. Proposals to bond medical graduates to public service contracts for five to ten years have sparked outrage, especially among young professionals who argue that the state has no moral authority to restrict their freedom after failing to provide basic infrastructure, job security, or personal safety. Some state governments have introduced scholarship retention schemes and returnee investment incentives, but these remain too few, poorly implemented, or overshadowed by more attractive foreign offers. Policy inertia persists because Japa isn’t just a problem of economics—it is a verdict on governance. People are not leaving because they lack patriotism; they are leaving because patriotism no longer feeds them.
And while the Nigerian government tries to cope, Western host countries also wrestle with their own dilemmas. Nigerian migrants now comprise a significant portion of new arrivals in countries such as Canada and the United Kingdom. In Canada’s 2024 immigration data, Nigerians ranked among the top five sources of skilled workers. Western host nations find themselves in a precarious balancing act. Nigerian nurses and engineers fill critical shortages, bolstering public coffers through taxes and consumer spending. In the UK, they are heavily represented in the National Health Service and private care homes. These workers are praised for their diligence, education, and resilience.
However, the systems receiving them are often ill-prepared to integrate them. Many face bureaucratic roadblocks, including slow credential recognition and expensive licensing exams, which delay their full participation in the workforce. Years of retraining blunt the momentum of eager professionals, and discrimination can turn anticipation into anxiety. Others face subtle racism, wage disparities, and cultural isolation. Britain’s new Code of Practice for ethical health-worker recruitment aims to ensure that “poaching” talent doesn’t hollow out Nigeria’s fragile health system, yet the debate over “brain drain” ethics continues amid NHS staffing crises.
Despite these challenges, the Nigerian presence abroad is growing stronger and more confident. Nigerian culture is reshaping Western norms—Afrobeat now pulses through Glastonbury stages; jollof rice trucks line the streets of London; Yoruba phrases are sneaking into British slang; and the children of migrants are rising to prominence in politics, academia, and the arts. In 2025, the UK’s political landscape saw its first major-party leadership candidate of Nigerian descent. In America, Nigerian-American students consistently excel academically, and Nigerian churches and businesses have transformed entire neighbourhoods. These are not signs of assimilation—they are signs of expansion, the Nigerian identity flowering beyond borders.
Yet the question remains: what happens to the country they left behind? Who teaches in the schools from which they once graduated? Who rebuilds the hospitals where they were trained? Who ensures that power stays on long enough to power a mother’s air conditioner? Who stays to fix the power grid, redesign the curriculum, enforce the laws, and tell the next generation that hope is still possible at home?
Japa is not a simple story of brain drain or economic migration. It is a reckoning. It is a mirror held up to a nation that has failed too many of its brightest and bravest. But it is also a thread—an invisible umbilical cord—that connects the streets of Lagos to the clinics of Manchester, the classrooms of Toronto, and the startups of Berlin. And through that thread flows not just money but longing, memory, identity, and love. Japa is not unequivocal gain. It is a human response to systemic failures—economic, social, and political—and to the boundless courage of individuals chasing the promise of a better life. Its actual impact is braided across continents: in the phone calls between a migrant nurse and her mother, in the budget sheets of national ministries, and the urban rhythms of Toronto’s Chinatown.
Perhaps, over time, Japa will evolve from a flight to a return, as seen in India. Possibly, one day, Aisha will bring her NHS experience back to Kaduna to build a clinic of her own, and Emmanuel will reopen his old bedroom as a co-working space for local tech startups. Perhaps Nigeria will invest in a future that gives people a reason to stay, not just a means to leave. Until then, the suitcase remains half-packed, the visa application opens on the browser, and the heart is torn in two—between what is and what should have been.