The truth is, I do not particularly care about the words in the re-introduced national anthem that some people deem offensive. They consider words like “tribe” and “native” as derogatory and outdated, while the idea of a nation where people stand “in brotherhood” bespeaks its female gender as alien to its body politic. None of that bothers me, honestly. Even the idea of Nigeria as a “motherland,” makes a little difference to me. If Nigeria is a mother, she must be exhausted from giving without replenishment. The imagery of familyhood in the anthem does not move me. Some critics are rankled by the provenance of the national anthem, but not me. I remain unmoved by whether the anthem came from colonial masters or even Ancient Greece. Whatever!

What I find terribly amusing is the supposed objective of the anthem: to foster a united nation where everyone belongs. Now, that ideal is not only overly idealistic, but will be quickly discarded next cycle of election. None of the nice and cute words in that anthem will stand against the ferocious competition and divisiveness that typify our general elections. If you ask me, the song of fealty declaration to Bola Tinubu, “on your mandate we shall stand…” would have been a far more honest choice as the Nigeria national anthem than the farce of “Nigeria we hail thee” that will unravel when the general elections approach.

Why elections? Well, which other national event else brings out the beast in us? It is what our democracy solely boils down to, the ultimate determinant of our political personhood. For the political class, elections are a do-or-die affair because they calibrate their social relevance. You either deliver your constituency, or you die. To be a dead politician does not mean you stopped breathing. It simply means you cannot pull the required weight during an election season. For the underclass, the so-called “masses,” winning an election is imperative too. Elections do not guarantee that your material conditions will improve, but winning is a symbolic victory over other identity groups in the country.

We can still recall the triumphalism of Bola Tinubu’s supporters this time last year. Some were happy their tribe won; others celebrated their religion as the winner. Such joy is the sum total of their dividend of democracy. Democracy is a quadrennial cycle of conquest, the time we get to beat down the others wallowing in the same dysfunction as us for momentary self-validation. Anyone who thinks all of that sentiment will evaporate simply because the national anthem has a line about “tribes and tongues” has got another think coming.

In a pre-presidency interview, Tinubu mentioned that if he had his way, he would bring back the old national anthem because it “describes us better” and “we are one and one Nigeria.” Now, it is ironic that the election that allowed Tinubu to have his way and be in the place to change the national anthem actively pursued ethnic divisiveness as a winning strategy. Our public memory can be extremely short, but I do not think anyone could have forgotten the dirty details of their deeds so soon. At no point did Mr “We Are One And One Nigeria” publicly censure his attack dogs. They ran freely, digging their rabid teeth into the tender flesh of an already troubled nation. After the election, Tinubu appointed one of those e-hounds, Bayo Onanuga, as his media spokesperson. Such contradiction is their MO. They will gaslight you by preaching against toxicity in the same breath they use to spread it. Now that the Tinubu boys know that the current national fetish is “unity,” their new madness will be public payments of lip service to this idol.

Tinubu himself has been a politician enough to know that there are words, and there are also words without power. Uttered words can indeed have a perlocutionary effect if the circumstances around the speaker provide the necessary integrity. Without such galvanising context, words are just words, lacking any pronunciatory effect. Singing about building a nation “where no man is oppressed” in a country where the military can detain and torture you just because you wrote an article that one small big man in Aso Rock finds offensive is enough to douse whatever passion the anthem is supposed to inspire. For people to even call for the arrest of an activist who refused to stand up while the national anthem was being played means those clowns have not bothered to digest the anthem. Yet, they somehow expect the song to instigate unquestioning genuflections of loyalty. That anthem and the sense of national unity it is expected to foster is an intriguing example of magical thinking in contemporary Nigeria.

The anthem has words like “truth and justice,” but they are terms that have no corresponding meaning to the reality of our being Nigerian. They are words emptied of meaning; mere gibberish poor schoolchildren will regurgitate during their daily general assembly. Hardly anyone, especially those who introduced, “debated,” passed, and signed the bill for the former anthem to be restored, believes there is any charm to its composition that can make it foster unity. They demanded its re-introduction simply because they were struck by nostalgia. And what do you expect from old men whose debilitated minds have long dreamt the last of their dreams?

In fact, the 2027 election might be too far before the rubber of the virtues they want to signal through the anthem hits the road of the Nigerian political system. With the way people have been severely impoverished by the poorly conceived and ill-executed policies of this administration, do not be surprised if they testily peck at each other’s intestines earlier. By 2027, the All Progressives Congress will start fuelling and harvesting that toxicity to rally its supporters. Given their administrative missteps so far, it is not that hard to forecast how the next three years will go. It will be virtually impossible for them to sell Tinubu’s second term based on his performance, and they will need to fall back on their old gimmicks of ethnic and religious divisiveness.

You can expect that sometime in 2026, the agenda will start agending. Seemingly out of the blue, someone will restart the stale conversation about “Lagos is no man’s land” and the usual idiots will fall in line. Their choristers, presently buried in the sewers of social media, will be activated in their sleeper cells with chants of “Yoruba ronu!” Another clown will come up with a “Christianisation” agenda to mobilise Muslims who might have become disillusioned with a Muslim-Muslim presidency. Even though the present administration would not have done anything significant for Muslims, they will still stir religion by reminding Muslims of the possible loss of the presidency in which they at least get to claim some symbolic power.

As the invigorated partisans herd out to vote, guess what nobody will give a hoot about? Yup, the ideals of national unity despite diverse “tribes and tongues.” The utopic vision of a “nation where no man is oppressed” and where “peace and plenty” will one day exist will be distant in our minds. The next time you hear it will be during the swearing-in where it will be, once again, trotted out as another meaningless rite of nationhood; the things we are expected to mindlessly repeat like a digital voice assistant but which we would be dupes to believe. If those who brought back the anthem had truly believed the national anthem could potentially configure cohesive nationhood, they would have approached the whole exercise far more thoughtfully. They were shoddy because they—like most of us who will now be unfortunately subjected to mouthing meaningless words—are seriously cynical about the whole Nigerian project.

The National Minimum Wage Act that came into force on 18 April 2019 prescribed a five-year review cycle. For that reason, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had the law on their side for the strike that paralysed the country on Monday. But even if some of us have issues with shutting down the national grid and closing the airspace, workers were not just seeking to fill a requirement of the law. The current socio-economic realities in Nigeria have rendered the N30,000 agreed upon in 2019 almost worthless. If living in extreme poverty, going by World Bank parameters, means living on less than $1.90 (almost N3000) per day, it is indeed very telling that few Nigerians can now afford what amounts to 10% of the current minimum wage. ‘Subsidy is gone’ and merging the exchange rates are at the heart of the inflationary crisis that is depleting incomes and savings, fuelling suffering and despair across the country. 

Today, millions of Nigerian families go to bed without any certainty as to where their next meal will come from. To compound their problem, prices of foodstuff are skyrocketing. Using a ‘cost of food basics’ analysis that compares the monthly minimum recommended spend on food per adult and average wage in 107 countries, a United Kingdom-based Institute of Development Studies, last year placed Nigeria as the second poorest country in the world in terms of food affordability. We don’t even have to seek external validation for the current suffering by most Nigerians. A recent and more comprehensive report on poverty by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated that 133 million Nigerians were multi-dimensionally poor based on four indicators: food security, healthcare, education, and work.

With no conscious effort to cut down on the money spent on frills by political office holders at all levels, it is difficult to tell Labour that there is no money to pay whatever they demand as the minimum wage for workers. President Bola Tinubu, for instance, has a bloated cabinet of 45 ministers and the two budgets he has put forward in the past one year do not inspire anybody to believe he understands the gravity of the situation in the country. In the absence of concrete measures to tame food inflation, the obsession with all manner of revenue generating gambits that further pauperize the people makes it difficult to sympathise with the government. But there are still pertinent issues on minimum wage that should not be glossed over by critical stakeholders. An historical context may be important here.

In 1981, a minimum wage of N125 was agreed upon. Given the exchange rate at the time ($1.48 to a Naira), that translated to about $185 per month. Ten years later in 1991, the minimum wage was increased to N250. Going by the exchange rate of 8 Naira to a dollar at the time, that amounted to about $30. But that did not tell the whole story. As a National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) member in 1989/90, my monthly ‘allawee’ was N250 per month. Not only was it enough for my upkeep but I still had savings. That speaks to the Cost-of-Living Index (COLI) in the country and the purchasing power of the Naira at the time. In 2000 when the minimum wage was pegged at N5,500, the exchange rate was N84 to a dollar. Eleven years later in 2011, when the minimum wage was jarked up to N18,000, the exchange rate was N155 to a dollar. In 2019 when the new minimum wage became N30,000, the exchange rate was N305 to a dollar, but the COLI had started to go haywire. With the same exchange rate now about N1500 to a dollar, we can do the arithmetic to understand how hard things have become for the average Nigerian worker.

But what most people don’t understand is that the minimum wage is not about just government workers. It is meant for all workers in the formal sector except those on part time employment, or establishments with less than 25 persons. In a survey report titled ‘Labour Force Statistics’, released in February, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that about 92.3 percent of Nigerian workers are in informal employment as at the third quarter of 2023. The implication is that Labour is fighting for a tiny minority with their fixation on federal workers. So, this conversation is narrow and counterproductive.

Last week, the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN) defended the initial N60,000 on offer by the federal government. “While it is important to note that socio-economic conditions over the years have rendered the N30,000 minimum wage inadequate, the same conditions have incapacitated many businesses, fatally affecting their sustainability and ability to pay,” according to the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) and OPSN spokesperson on the minimum wage negotiation, Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde.

The OPSN is made up of the Manufacturers’ Association of Nigeria (MAN), National Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), National Association of Small Scale Industries (NASME) and National Association of Small Scale Industrialists (NASSI) and NECA. “The offer of N60,000, which is a 100 per cent increase in the current national minimum wage was sacrificial on the part of the organised private sector,” said Oyerinde who harped on the need to protect jobs and ensure sustained growth in the economy. “The demand by organised labour at this period has the potential to cripple small and medium enterprises and push many other businesses into comatose.”

To understand our national dilemma, here are facts that should compel sobriety. As of June 1980 (44 years ago), a barrel of oil was selling for $37.24 and we were pumping 2.2 million barrels into the international market daily. The population of the country at that time was 73.44 million. Today, the price of oil is $85, and we are pumping roughly 1.3 million barrels a day. Several times in recent years we were pumping less than a million barrels per day. The implication is that while our population (currently estimated to be 229,152,217) has more than tripled, our earnings have not changed because we still rely on oil to run our economy. And with a penchant by succeeding administrations to create bubble jobs, we have almost five times the number of workers in the public service today than we had at the time!

Meanwhile, the process by which the Ama Pepple-led national minimum wage tripartite committee arrived at the figure of N30,000 was perhaps the most rigorous of any such undertaking in recent years. When they began work in December 2018, labour was demanding N66,500 per month while the organised private sector proposed N25,000. Incidentally, of the six governors, each representing a geo-political zone, that were in the committee, only Abubakar Bagudu, then governor of Kebbi, who represented the North-west, took the assignment seriously by attending the sessions. Bagudu is now Minister of Budget and National Planning and is involved in the current negotiations. Aside the institutional memory that he brings to the table, Bagudu understands the economic dynamics at play. But he also knows that these issues go beyond what the federal government can offer its workers.

Shortly before he retired after 15 years of meritorious service as founding Director General of the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF), I sought to know from Mr Asishana Okauru the stand of governors on the minimum wage crisis. He gave me a highly revealing position paper prepared in January by the NGF secretariat. Market conditions, according to the NGF paper which relies heavily on figures from the NBS, “have become tougher amidst indications that the (federal) government did not have the fiscal headroom (the tripod of a robust external reserve balance, Excess Crude Account savings and revenue adequacy) to manage the fallouts of both policies (fuel subsidy removal and exchange rates merger) in the near term.”

Most countries, according to the NGF paper, set their national minimum wage “on the back of price movements such as inflation, cost of living, median earnings (average earnings of the middle half of earners) and the state of the economy.” With several graphs and charts, the paper then referenced the position of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) that “in many of these countries, except where collective agreements cover over 90% of employees, the coverage of collective bargaining as a norm for wage fixing is insufficient to provide protection of minimum standards to a broad majority of workers.” The NGF paper advocates for a decentralised minimum wage system. “This debate has risen in the context of broader economic and social concerns about income inequality, cost of living, labour market flexibility and the fiscal capacity of each state government. In other jurisdictions where this has been applied, two wages still exist, and the higher minimum wage usually applies.”

Citing examples from the United States and the United Kingdom, the NGF paper highlights where the government and Labour get the entire conversation about minimum wage wrong before delving into the challenge of the 36 states. Quoting NLC reports, the NGF paper admits that “many States are yet to implement the 2019 wage review, reflecting indications that they did not have the fiscal headroom to comply with the recommendations of the 2019 NMW review, and that they may not be in a good position to adopt another review in 2024.” The paper added, “In addition to the non-implementation of the 2019 NMW review, new governments still face the burden of legacy salary and pension arrears which had accumulated to N672.6 billion in 2021. It is unclear what the present value of these debts amounts to, but it is estimated at 10% of the total recurrent revenues of States.”

Fiscal reprieve expected from the removal of PMS subsidies has not been sufficient to accommodate a new minimum wage, according to the paper. “The upside of the Naira devaluation has been a sharp growth in exchange gain from dollar denominated revenues, but overall transfers to states have not significantly outperformed records in the first half of 2023. The smoothening of Federation Account transfers to the three tiers of government by fiscal authorities may be attributed to a posture of money supply tightening given the current level of inflation in the country.”

For many States, according to the paper, “it would be unrealistic to expect a full implementation of a wage adjustment in 2024” because current circumstances require additional measures, including “a budget review to identify non-essential expenditures that can be deferred or reduced, debt restructuring to free up the fiscal space, a wage freeze for selected personnel, phased implementation for the new NMW, and the introduction of social safety nets to provide a cushion for workers where job cuts are necessary.”

Given the state of the economy, the paper concludes, a new minimum wage will worsen employment outcomes in the public and private sectors – both in terms of current workforce retention and the potential to make new hires. “A wage hike may lead to higher prices for goods and services and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis. This is particularly concerning for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), as they are more sensitive to production cost increases. Of those employed, the NBS puts the number of workers in wage employment at 12% while the remaining 88% are self-employed.”

Following the suspension of the strike by Labour on Tuesday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu directed his Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Olawale Edun, to come up with the cost implications of an affordable, sustainable and realistic new minimum wage. But we all know that Edun’s assignment is strictly limited to federal government workers. While the 2020 data on IPPIS Platform revealed that there were 696 Federal Ministries Departments and Agencies (MDAs) with 1,139,633 workers, the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Ben Akabueze, revealed last August that the federal government’s personnel cost had hit over N5 trillion, with 1.5 million workers on its payroll. Of course, we know that many of these would be ‘ghost workers’, but even at that, we are talking about far less than one percent of our population.

At a period, such as this, when most Nigerians are struggling to survive, it is difficult to fault the argument of Labour for a living wage. But outside the federal government that they can easily arm-twist with the shutdown of the national grid, they cannot enforce anything with the states or private sector. This, of course, is not an argument against minimum wage. It is to point out that no matter what Labour agrees with the federal government this week, most workers in the country will not earn it, and at the end, the people could be worse off. 

What the situation in Nigeria today demands is a comprehensive and bold economic policy that increases our productivity and helps create jobs for our young people. That cannot be done when you take one step forward and three steps backwards, as is now the case in Abuja. “At current rates, expenditure on fuel subsidy is projected to reach N5.4trillion by the end of 2024. This compares unfavourably with N3.6 trillion in 2023 and N2.0 trillion in 2022,” according to the latest Accelerated Stabilisation and Advancement Plan (ASAP) presented to the president by Edun which officially confirms that the ‘Subsidy is gone’ claim is audio, as they say on the street. We also need targeted social interventions that include population control. Subsidising healthcare and education as well as other welfare programmes for the most vulnerable of our society is equally important.

In essence, as much as we require a new national minimum wage law, nobody should be under any illusion that it is a solution to the challenge of daily living in today’s Nigeria.

Turning your pain into gain

  Your pain is becoming your testimony. You are being healed now! You are being located, rescued and restored. I said that you will not nurse those wounds again. You will no more pine away in that pain, hopelessness and regret. Our God specializes in turning wounds and pains into sweetness and greatness. Yes, pains, wounds and scars mark out generals. True. Show me a general and I will show you a man with scars and near-death experiences from battles.  Do you want to be great? Then you must be ready to accumulate scars, wounds, enemies, deprivations, betrayals and battle stars. Even Jesus went through them all. God gave him a name that is above all names in heaven, on earth and under the earth (the waters), but that was not without scars. He went through robbing, wounding, abandoning and ultimately was killed.  But he came back, rose again to become the sovereign, the indestructible, the immortal King of Kings and the Lord of lords. And today when you mention his name all things - principalities, powers, dominions, thrones, Satan, demons, situations, diseases, occult masters, and satanic agents bow. No scars no authority! In fact, the bible said that his wounds brought us healing - spiritually, emotionally and physically. And by his death, we have received life and victory! If he was not robbed, disgraced, bruised, betrayed and abandoned to die we would not have been saved and empowered today.

   Now, there are many in the bible that went through this experience, but we will just pick one or two because of time and space. Look at the hopelessness of the paralyzed man that was abandoned at the Pool of Bethesda. His good health was taken away. He could not walk or help himself and he did not have anybody to help. Even when he lay near the solution, there was nobody to rush him into the water when it was stirred by the visiting angel. And he was in this situation for 38 years. He was virtually left there to die. So he also had no friends or relations?  My God! Yes, friends and relations have a limit to what they can do for you at the time of trial. Don’t put your hope on people, trust God. Don’t trust things, rely on the creator. He is the one that will stay with you when everything has failed. He will stand with you when everyone is gone. The main problem of this man was that he had nobody to help him. As his situation got worse and complicated, everybody deserted him. Nobody, unless a God-sent will stand with you in such condition for 38 years. Nobody! Just few weeks every sympathizer is gone. And few more months, your relations and best friends will gradually start distancing from you. Only your children and a godly spouse, I repeat, a godly spouse will hang on with you when it gets too tough and too long. But I doubt if our friend here had kids and wife. Or they also abandoned him and vamoosed because it happens. It’s possible. Haven’t you seen such before? Human beings are unreliable and unpredictable. May you not over stay in that trial in the name of Jesus!