Dr Bukola Saraki evokes the figure of the idle king in Tennyson’s Ulysses—a man who has known both triumph and adversity, surrounded at times by loyal allies and, at others, by no one at all. His political career is a study in momentum: within three decades, he rose from a senior executive role at a major bank to serve two terms as governor of Kwara State, entered the Senate in 2011, and, by 2015, had engineered his way to the presidency of the Nigerian Senate. Few Nigerian politicians have climbed faster or maneuvered more deftly. Yet by 2019, the machinery seemed to grind to a halt, leaving Saraki unmoored, a veteran leader without an obvious battlefield.

“How dull it is to pause, to rust unburnished, not to shine in use,” the poem says. The line could easily serve as a reflection on Saraki’s current predicament. Since 2011, he has harbored presidential ambitions and remained a key player on the national stage. Even after his tenure as governor ended, he maintained an iron grip on Kwara’s politics, quietly orchestrating events behind the scenes for another eight years. But ambition, once deferred, demands a new urgency, and in the shifting tides of Nigerian politics, staying quiet is the quickest way to be forgotten.

For all the talk about it being the turn of the South to rule for eight years, the only geopolitical zone to never actually produce a Nigerian president is the Middle-Belt; and for all the compelling talk about an Igbo presidency, at least history acknowledges Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, who was president of Nigeria until the coup of 1966. Saraki’s path, and the Middle-belt region’s exclusion, demand a more serious reckoning in the national conversation. Whether that conversation should be taking place towards 2027 is debatable; but even more uncertain is whether the answer lies within the PDP, the party where Saraki now holds fort. 

Saying it plainly, Saraki has an Atiku problem, and it’s been years in the making. He has had that problem since 2019 when he agreed to be the director general of the former vice president’s campaign, instead of focussing his energies on returning to the senate and consolidating his hard-fought power there. This distraction proved very costly, blindsiding him from the changing landscape back home and the blitzkrieg campaign of the otoge movement that established the APC – to which Saraki himself switched his state political machinery in 2015 – as the dominant power in the state for the tenth year. And with Atiku’s daily posturing on X, along with his body language and loud trumpeting about a coalition ahead of 2027, it seems the old man, who will be 80 next year, may be gearing up for yet another presidential run, his sixth since 2007. 

Saraki is also grappling with what political observers might call a Hillary Clinton-problem, not a matter of personality, but of public perception, and the baggage that comes with long years in the arena. Here is a man who was one of Nigeria’s most successful governors, who led arguably Nigeria’s most independent Senate, who comes from a political dynasty that has endured for over half a century, and who, by Nigerian standards, is still young. On paper, it should be a no-brainer for the party to rally around him and put him forth to Nigerians as a strong choice. This has yet to happen. And while a presidential candidate historically has only one shot as the party’s flagbearer, PDP has stuck with one man twice and failed, monumentally damaging its own prospects with its internal crises since 2022. After eight years of Buhari, it was clear Nigerians were eager for a new direction. But instead of uniting, the party effectively fielded three presidential candidates across three different parties, handing the APC a clear path to victory. Ironically, all three later claimed they had won, when in reality, they had simply cancelled one other out, and been outmaneuvered by Mr. Tinubu, who became president, fair and square. 

Which brings us to our next point about Saraki. This is probably the only politician who has actually played the kind of high stakes politics we witnessed ahead of the 2023 elections and won. In 2015, with the odds stacked against him, Saraki pulled off a political masterstroke live on television. He outmaneuvered his own party, the APC, a sitting president, and the party’s national leader – all of whom were backing their preferred candidate, Ahmad Lawan – and emerged as Senate President. If there was ever a day on which Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was truly outfoxed, it was this. Resilience is the main currency of Nigerian politics and BukolaSaraki is among its shrewdest practitioners. After seizing the Senate presidency against the wishes of his own party, he spent the next four years under siege from corruption charges at the Code of Conduct Tribunal to investigations by the EFCC and repeated threats of arrest. Few would dispute that Saraki emerged with his political capital largely intact; battle-scarred, perhaps, but wiser for the experience and still very much a player. 

This resilience, however, is a double-edged sword. In Nigeria, political longevity often breeds suspicion and Saraki’s survival has added to the perception that he is a man too skilled at the dark arts of power for a nation that increasingly demands transparency. He may well position himself for another shot at national leadership, but his challenge is no longer just to win his party’s nomination, but to redirect attention to what he has accomplished in the decades since he was only a 37-year-old adviser to former President Obasanjo.  

Dr. Saraki has mostly stayed on the sidelines of the PDP’s internal crisis, only recently breaking his silence after the shocking defection of the Delta State political structure to the APC, an event that ended over two decades of PDP dominance in the oil-rich state. With confusion mounting and the party’s foundation steadily eroding, he has begun to demonstrate the kind of leadership the PDP urgently needs by calling for calm and rallying the troops. 

Saraki wants the presidency, but a vice-presidential slot would still represent a step up from his previous role as Senate President. It would place him within striking distance of the highest office, while allowing him to consolidate alliances for the future. His ambitions are not unique. By 2027, it will be twenty years since Alhaji Atiku Abubakar first began his now endless quest for the presidency, an odyssey marked more by defeat and frustration. The space Atiku occupies is increasingly seen as fully exhausted, a fact that younger politicians like Saraki should be keen to exploit. Meanwhile, figures like Peter Obi present a different kind of challenge. A paradigm of clawing self-interest, Obi has demonstrated a willingness to shift loyalties in pursuit of advantage and will likely move again to whichever platform best secures his footing ahead of 2027. 

At the end of the day, it is hard-nosed pragmatism, not sentiment, that may decide the next contest. Today’s purveyors of the great coalition are simply too angry and too bitter to make any sound judgements against a ruling party unlikely to give up power easily in two years. 

Saraki should step up and lead, but he must do so with caution. The trap of the idle king looms large: a former governor and former Senate president, still too young to be an elder statesman, yet at risk of becoming a relic of the past. Our political culture punishes hesitation; therefore Bukola Sarakimust choose whether to seize the day or be remembered merely as one who almost did.

–Owope writes from Lagos.

There was dancing and rejoicing when Mele Kyari announced with glee that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) had pulled through and what seemed impossible to the doubting Thomases and pessimists had become possible. The Warri Refinery machines were set to roar back to life. Kyari, the Group’s former Chief Executive Officer, beating his chest in triumph, on 30 December, led journalists on a tour of the facility in Warri. It was an event witnessed by stakeholders, comprising marketers in particular. He said on the occasion about the reactivation this column regarded trustingly as a New Year gift by NNPCL: “If you see the plant you will see the reality yourself. This plant is running; we have not completed it 100 per cent, but we are still in the process; we are on the other part of the plant as we progress, but currently this plant is running. You will see what is happening now and we are bringing products to the market.” He went on: “There are many people who don’t think this is real. People don’t believe real things can happen in our country. We believe that this is right for our country and all of us have a stake, including the media so this can become a greater place as it is already happening.” Turning to the journalists he said: “We want you to see that everything is real. I must congratulate our team for their determination and extreme belief that this company can restart this plant. This has brought the result we are seeing in collaboration with our contractors. We have proved that it is possible to restart a plant that you deliberately shut down. We have proved this.”

However, former President Olusegun Obasanjo hissed. He was swift in pouring cold water on our spirit, expressing serious doubts about the celebrative health feat of the refineries, both Warri and Port Harcourt. And what is the situation today about four months after the hallelujah chorus? According to a regulatory authority document a national newspaper sighted, the Warri Refinery has been shut down since 25 January, 2025. And Port Harcourt plant which resumed operation in November last year, just about a month before Warri has been operating below 40 per cent capacity. I will come back to this presently.

Commenting on the refurbishment of Warri Refinery, this column stated as follows on 11 January in the piece captioned ‘Fuelling Doubts’: “The ding-dong between former President Olusegun Obasanjo and the NNPCL is good, disturbing as it may seem on the surface. It is a wake-up clarion call to NNPCL. The nation has suffered enough in its hands. The argument that may be seen as degenerating into a brickbat is still over the state of the refineries.

“The group chief executive officer (GCEO) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Mele Kyari, announced to the nation on 30 December, 2024, that Warri Refinery had been successfully, though partially, refurbished and was roaring back to life. The New Year gift by NNPCL to the nation took everybody by surprise, coming this soon after the old Port Harcourt refinery was reactivated and it became operational. Despite the stage of rehabilitation, it will produce 60 per cent of its installed capacity, which is 125, 000 barrels per day. GCOE Mele Kyari said with glee: “If you see the plant, you will see the reality yourself. This plant is running…”

The Punch comprehensive report on the state of the two refineries on Tuesday, however, does not give much signal for cheer in the horizon—provided the new helmsman, Bayo Ojulari, rolls up his sleeves and charts his own totally new course, and moves away from broken promises of the past.

The column did state: “Former President Obasanjo, who is not known to shrink from controversies, has thrust his chest out to count among ‘people who don’t think this is real’, that is, given his stature he is not perturbed if he is seen as leading the Doubting Thomases. He was swift in expressing doubts about the health feat of the refineries. He anchored his reservations on the aphoristic parable of a farmer and the size of his farm during planting season. The farmer made the world to believe that he had a large cultivation of yams. He boasted that he planted 200 yam mounds, whereas all he had were 100 heaps. At harvest the truth will inexorably catch up with him.

“So, if anybody tells you that they (the refineries) are working, why are they not with Aliko in the market? Aliko will make his own refinery work. Not only make it work, he will make it deliver”, Obasanjo said sarcastically.

“Whether we announce our own government refineries are working or not working, look, it is like they say in Yoruba adage, ‘the man who plants 100 heaps of yams and says he planted 200 heaps, they say after he has harvested 100 heaps of yam, he will harvest 100 heaps of lies.’

In response, however, the NNPCL leadership sure of itself, or so it appeared, said it would be pleased to have Obasanjo as a guest to be taken round the plants to see things for himself.

As I did state at the time, given Obasanjo’s standing and public acclaim, and his own familiarization with the company as a former President, it is inconceivable that he would make comments on matters of this nature and on the company’s operations without intelligence reports and without gathering information from competent sources connected with the refineries. The former President was not the only person who harboured doubts. Some experts in the oil industry believed it must have been a miracle to succeed in bringing the refineries back to life. One said at the time: ‘We wait and see.’

Obasanjo hinged part of his doubts on his discussions with Shell that he had invited, while in the saddle, to take interest in running the refineries but Shell turned down the offer. One of the four reasons Shell gave was that there was too much corruption around the activities of our refineries and they would not want to get involved. They gave other reasons bordering on the productive capacity of the refineries which Shell considered too small.

NNPCL on its part allayed fears saying it had expanded beyond oil and gas to become an integrated energy company. The company went further to explain that what had taken place was not the accustomed Turn Around Maintenance (TAM), but a comprehensive overhaul. It was a comprehensive overhaul designed to meet what it described as world-class standards. And Chief Corporate communications officer of NNPCL, Olufemi Soneye reinforced enheartening hopes and expectation by reminding the nation that NNPCL was no longer a government corporation. “Today,” he said, “NNPC Limited is a private entity that has transitioned from being a loss-making organization to becoming a profit -oriented global energy leader.”

Far back as 04 August, 2021, the Buhari Administration approved $1.48billion (US Dollars) for the rehabilitation of both Warri and Kaduna refineries, $897million for Warri and $586 million for Kaduna. For Warri, the rehabilitation was in phases of first, 21 months; then 23 months and the last 33 months.

As of the time of the announcement of the reactivation, the assurance of the readiness of the refinery to produce Premium Motor Spirit alias PMS but more widely known as petrol was glossed over, which was the major product the generality of Nigerians was ardently longing to have. ThisDay gave the hint that as of the time Mele Kyari and his team were on tour of the plant the refinery was going through a “test-run of its refining processes, and Naphtha had yet to be transferred to the Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit for production of Premium Motor Spirit, (PMS) that is petrol or gas.

This column did admonish NNPCL to see any lingering doubts as expressed by former President Obasanjo and some experts in the oil industry as burden and a challenge they must quickly discharge. Indeed, the doubts must be seen as energy tonic to fasten belts and to fire them to disabuse the mind of everybody and prove the Doubting Thomases wrong, and beat their chest that the two refineries, Port Harcourt producing 75 per cent of 150,000 barrels a day and Warri producing at 60 per cent of 125, 000 barrels are back on stream. Were the claims to prove Obasanjo right and end as a hoax, not after President Bola Tinubu has described the development in Warri as a historic milestone, it would be the biggest scandal of the century.

NNPCL did not appear to have heeded my warning: Alas, Obasanjo may have been proven right. Pray that we may not witness all turning out a hoax after all!! Otherwise, how do you explain Warri Refinery being shut down barely three weeks its reactivation was celebrated–greeted with so much noise-making, glamour and laudation, especially by Bola Tinubu. NNPCL said what they did in Warri was total overhauling. Now it is a new song: The plant is undergoing repairs for efficient service delivery and ensuring optimal operations. It was a routine maintenance programme. That was in in February. “On January 25, 2025”, according to NNPCL in a statement, “operations at WRPC Area 1 were intentionally curtailed to carry out necessary intervention works on select equipment, including field instruments that were impacting sustainable and steady operations. These intervention works are essential to ensure the production of specification finished and intermediate products, particularly Automotive Gas Oil and Kerosine. The routine maintenance is progressing as planned, and 1t will be back in operation within the next few days.”

Listen to the President when Mele Kyari announced the return of Warri facility to production following the successful completion of its reactivation: “The restart of Warri Refinery today brings joy and gladness to me” Bubbling with excitement, he said that now that the reactivation of Warri had been accomplished, attention should shift to Kaduna Refinery and kick it also back to life. In the case of Port Harcourt when it rolled back to life in November, the elated President said the refinery coming back on stream would contribute towards energy sufficiency, ensuring energy security, and raise, indeed, enhance export capacity. He saw it as being in alignment with his vision of what is touted unceasingly as Renewed Hope Agenda which is focused on shared economic prosperity for all. Stakeholders are expressing dishevelment and concerned that despite years of investment, little tangible results have come out of the refineries. Production has been erratic, up today, down tomorrow. Hardly does it exceed 42.23 percent of its installed capacity in six months. They have described the situation as disconcerting and pressed for holistic staff review.

I do hope the new captains in the different refineries will realise that all eyes are on them; and will remove the stain on the NNPCL raiment with dispatch. They cannot afford to let the nation down! Warri Refinery shutting down so soon will be seen as scandal enough to alarm the nation after humongous $897.6million was expended to bring it back to production. In some quarters, the rehabilitation of both refineries is already been described as a scandal.

THE SPATE OF DEFECTIONS
I have followed the gale of defections by governors, commissioners and ranking politicians in parts of the country, particularly recent ones in Delta State. According to reports, the likeable governor of Akwa Ibom State who has admirably taken after his predecessor, Udom Emmanuel, in terms of resourcefulness, hard work and unremitted application to set goals, is rehearsing. I am referring to no other than Mr. Umo Eno. The world will soon hear from him when he finishes warming up. For now, the world is waiting with baited breath.

Those who have crossed the line from PDP to APC are the governor of Delta State, Mr, Sheriff Francis Oborevwori with his deputy and his predecessor, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa and their supporters. The PDP structure was dismantled. The defection leaves a bitter taste in the mouth. The most disgusting is that of Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa who in 2023 missed only by a hair’s breadth being the Vice-President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on the platform of PDP. And come to think of it, the defection Oborevwori called a movement was framed in triumphal jollity and shameless celebration. To receive the defectors were the Vice-President, Kashim Shettima and Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the APC national chair, undoubtedly bubbling with fixation on 2027, who only see this, not as a debasement of our polity and of the lofty tone of our environment, but rather as building up a rich harvest of votes. They cannot see the consequences of raising a future generation bereft of principles who will show utmost contempt for honour and wholesomeness as well as dignified carriage, above all wholesomeness of our people and our land.

David Umahi then Governor of Ebonyi State, now the Minister of Works, again a dedicated administrator and resourceful engineer, defected from PDP to the APC, the step ladder he used to climb to the high office of the state governor. He got away with it. About the same time Professor Ayade, governor of Cross River did the same. Justice Ekwo, a “reincarnation” of Conrard Idowu Taylor (J.I.C.), learned, true and courageous, asked Omahi and his deputy to vacate their office and return their mandate to the PDP that gave them the step ladder to their positions. because his electors were PDP the mandate they gave to him was on the platform of PDP. The higher court looking only at the letters of the law, and not the spirit, nor the loud and disarming wisdom undergirding the Justice’s pronouncement, overturned the judgment, arguing that the grundnom spells out procedures to go through to remove a governor. Who could have envisaged that any senior government functionary at that level would without qualms abandon the platform that saw them to the highest echelon of governance in the state? The framers of the constitution did not in the widest of their dreams, did not think that a governor would leave his party for another without first honourably resigning. Since there have been no consequences for such disgraceful behaviour, the shamelessness continues with increasing converts.

And so, the truism rings loud and clear: A shameless people cannot be embarrassed! Where there is no shame the word propriety has no meaning. The society becomes a world of anything goes in which the thick line between right and wrong is blurred. And the argument ensues that the the words good and bad are subjective when in fact they are absolute: What is good is good and what is bad is bad and we can all feel them to our fingertips. What we are witnessing everywhere is the state of our collective inner being despite our vaunted religiousity: Hollow!

By virtue of section 16 of the Constitution of Nigeria, the State shall direct its policy towards ensuring: the promotion of a planned and balanced economic development; that the material resources of the nation are harnessed and distributed as best as possible to serve the common good; that the economic system is not operated in such a manner as to permit the concentration of wealth or the means of production and exchange in the hands of few individuals or of a group.and that suitable and adequate shelter, suitable and adequate food, reasonable national minimum living wage, old age care and pensions, and unemployment, sick benefits and welfare of the disabled are provided for all citizens.

Section 17 of the Constitution also provides that the conditions of work are just and humane, and that there are adequate facilities for leisure and for social, religious and cultural life; the health, safety and welfare of all persons in employment are safeguarded and not endangered or abused; there are adequate medical and health facilities for all persons: there is equal pay for equal work without discrimination on account of sex, or on any other ground whatsoever.

In utter violation of the economic objective of the State, the members of the ruling class have sold public enterprises and awarded oil blocks and granted licences for solid minerals to themselves.Thus, the State has engaged in concentrating the commonwealth in the hands of a few people contrary to the letter and spirit of the Constitution. However, some of those who lost out in the criminal diversion of the commonwealth through privatisation and award of oil blocks have engaged in the smuggling of solid minerals.

Even though the members of the ruling class have conspired to make the fundamental objectives and direct principles of state policy non justiciable in any court, the struggle of the Nigerian people for dividends of democracy has compelled the State to adopt policies and enact a numbers of laws that are designed to promote the welfare of the Nigerian people. Such welfare and labour include Labour Act 2004, Trade Union Act 2004, Child Rights Act 2003, Compulsory Free Universal Basic Education Act 2004 and Federal Mortgage Bank Act 2004, Factories Act 2004.

Others include Employees Compensation Act 2010, Pension Reforms Act 2014, National Senior Citizens Act, 2017, National Housing Fund (Establishment) Act, 2018, Discrimination Against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Act 2018, National Health Insurance Authority Act, 2021, Student Loans (Access to Higher Education) (Repeal and Re-enactment) Act 2024 and National Minimum Wage Act, 2024.

In addition to the above laws, Nigeria has ratified and enacted the African Charter on Human and Peoples Rights. Articles 15, 16, and 17 of the law provides that every individual shall have the right to work under equitable and satisfactory conditions, and receive equal pay for equal work as well as the right to health, and right to education.Furthermore, section 254(C)(1) of the Constitution has conferred exclusive jurisdiction and power to deal with any matter connected with or pertaining to the application of international best practices and international Convention, treaty or protocol of which Nigeria has ratified relating to labour, employment, workplace, industrial relations or matters connected therewith, notwithstanding anything to the contrary in the Constitution.

It is regrettable to note that the above laws are observed in breach by the Nigerian neocolonial state to the detriment of the working people. An example is the Compulsory Free Universal Basic Education Act which has imposed a legal duty on the federal and state governments to ensure that every child is given free and compulsory education from primary school to junior secondary school. The immediate past Executive Secretary of UBEC, Dr. Hamid Bobboyi, during his presentation of the 2020 and 2023 budget implementation report to the Senate Committee on Basic and Secondary Education in Abuja, disclosed that N135,540,905,308.92 in matching grants have not been accessed by states in the last few years.

Owing to the refusal of state governments to contribute counterpart funds to access the matching grant of about N135 billion in the UBEC Account as stipulated by the law, Nigeria has 20 million out of school children. The Alliance on Surviving Covid-19 and Beyond (ASCAB) dragged the Federal Government and the 36 state governments to the Federal High Court seeking to compel them to comply with the education laws. Since there is no defence to the case, the defendants have challenged the locus standi of the plaintiffs to institute the action. The implication of the preliminary objection is that the state governments are not prepared to provide education for the children of the poor and vulnerable people.

In the public service, top public officers augment their salaries and allowances with payment of security votes and estacodes from foreign trips. Even though the National Minimum Wage Act is a valid and substiting legislation, about 20 states have yet to implement the N70,000 new minimum wage for local government workers and primary school teachers. Several employers of labour have equally refused to comply with the provisions of the National Minimum Wage Act. The federal government has refused to ensure full compliance with the law.

Furthermore, the recent data released by the National Pension Commission show that total assets in the Nigerian Pension industry rose by 23% year-on-year to N22.5 trillion in December 2024. instead of ensuring that pensioners are promptly paid their pension, the federal government has borrowed N10 trillion from the fund. Worried over the concern of pensioners, the House of Representatives has resolved to recover the loan on the ground that most pensioners are unable to access their retirement funds despite complying with the requirements of the contributory pension scheme.

Specifically, the House Committee was mandated to investigate the status of the pension fund assets of over N15.5 trillion with a view to ensuring that the N10 trillion loaned to the federal government from the pension fund is duly recovered and modalities are put in place to hinder the collapse of the pension schemes.

Under the Federal Mortgage Bank Act, workers are required to contribute to housing primarily through the National Housing Fund (NHF), where a mandatory 2.5% of their monthly salary is deducted and remitted to provide affordable housing loans to eligible workers. The contribution, together with other contributions from other lowly placed citizens, helps to fund the NHF.

The National Housing Fund (NHF), like other interventionist administering programmes, has become a subject of abuse and fraudulent practice. In November 2024, the Independent Corrupt Practices and other related offences Commission (ICPC) arraigned Mr. Gimba Ya’u Kumo, former chief executive officer of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), for allegedly diverting $65 million housing funds. The money was for the construction of 962 units of residential houses at the Goodluck Jonathan Legacy City in Kubwa, a satellite town in Abuja.

The Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress should closely monitor the trial and request the ICPC to investigate the allegation made in 2012 by Mr. Gimba Ya'u Kumo, that some "unscrupulous employers" had milked the fund dry to the tune of N100 billion. The NLC and the TUC owe workers a duty to ensure that the stolen sums of $65 million and N100 billion are recovered and utilised for building houses for workers.

It is indisputably clear that the enforcement of the above welfare and laws as well as international instruments will go a long way to improve the living conditions of the Nigerian people. Therefore, it is high time that the Nigeria Labour Congress and Trade Union Congress mobilised workers and allies to mount sufficient pressure on the federal government to enforce the welfare laws and international instruments.

There’s a concern that Nigeria could soon become a one-party state, not by law, like in China, but through subterfuge – or in legal terms, de facto – similar to Cameroon, Uganda, Equatorial Guinea, or even Rwanda, where the ruling parties are inflicting a slow, painful death on the opposition.

Those who express this concern have given many reasons. The clearest and most troubling, it seems, is the wave of defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) that has depleted the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Wave after wave

Apart from Federal lawmakers from Osun to Kaduna and Niger States who have defected, as of April 25, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State and his predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa and the entire Delta PDP structure defected to the APC, with more defections still anticipated nationwide. It’s likely that soon, five of the six South-South states, which have been the bastion of the PDP since 1999, may fall.

Concerned persons, mainly those in the PDP and civil society, have said these are not defections. Instead, they argue that they are negotiated exits by politicians to evade trial by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) or for the personal political gain of the governors and other defectors. They have blamed the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for instigating the defections out of a desperation to win the 2027 presidential election because his record in office cannot save him.

Chasing shadows

I think it’s nonsense. And though he did not use these words, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, out of self-interest, put it more elegantly when he said he believed that defections are a fact of Nigerian politics and defectors are merely exercising their freedom of association under the law.

A serial defector himself, and sixth-time contender for the presidency, it would have been a surprise if he said anything else. The problem, according to Atiku, is not the defections but the two-year record of performance that, all things being equal, cannot return the president to office.

However, if the worst fear of Atiku and the opposition comes through, as is likely, and President Tinubu returns to office in 2027, as is probable, it would not be because of the defections; it would be because Atiku paved the way for the destruction of the PDP. He has proved to be the party’s undertaker-in-chief, something not often said, because it is convenient to blame Tinubu.

Best chance lost

For example, Sule Lamido, a leading member of the PDP, reportedly said on Tuesday that “the President should be fair” and save the opposition from being crushed. I’m unsure how much Lamido will pay Tinubu for self-sabotage. It’s surprising that one of the PDP’s founders does not know that a few of the founders ruined the PDP, and no one but its remnant can save it.

The party’s best chance since it lost power 10 years ago was in 2023 when the APC was at its most vulnerable. The government of President Muhammadu Buhari would have viewed a hostile takeover by the opposition PDP as mercy killing, if not as an act of charity. Lamido knows, more than anyone else, that Atiku stood in the way.

Rolling stone, no moss

After contesting and losing the APC primaries to Buhari in 2014, Atiku defected again to PDP in 2017 and contested the PDP primaries in 2019. At that time, the PDP was recovering from the catastrophic defeat of 2015, during which it lost nine of its 22 states and 93 seats in the National Assembly. In the winner-takes-all creed of the presidential system, the PDP faced a long harmattan of recriminations and decay while Atiku was away.

However, the party was gradually rebuilt, primarily through the efforts of Nyesom Wike, the Rivers State Governor at the time. When Atiku returned, the party was not what it was in its heyday. Still, it was not the ramshackle he had abandoned.

The calamitous record of the APC under President Buhari, the party’s division leading up to the 2023 election, and the overall mood in the country at that time indicated that Nigeria was vulnerable to a hostile takeover. The country was fed up with the APC.

Marabout’s prophecy

But Atiku, being Atiku, felt obliged to live up to the marabout’s prediction in 1998 that he would one day be Nigeria’s president. It was this pursuit of prophecy that got him into trouble with President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2003; it was the blind pursuit of it that drove him from the PDP to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and later to the APC. The obsession with this prophecy finally brought him back to the PDP. He just had to run.

But it shouldn’t have happened in 2023. While the odds favoured another party to succeed the exhausted APC, it certainly did not favour a northerner to run. Not after eight years of Buhari, a Northerner, not after Tinubu had wrested the flag of the APC, and certainly not when the convention in the PDP favoured rotation.

Atiku cast aside the odds, defied the restraints of common sense, ignored the party’s convention and a last-minute understanding after a key London meeting, and subverted the primaries to carry the flag. Things, quite naturally, fell apart.

Looking for a scapegoat

The rest is history. The PDP lost. The party that boasted that it was Africa’s largest party, destined to rule for 60 years, lost its way, leaving its members desperately searching for shelter and rehabilitation, and looking for rest wherever it may be found.

How can that be Tinubu’s problem when Atiku, the wrecking ball, still sits pretty? I understand the hysteria in the opposition, but it does not have to waste its current misery looking for scapegoats outside. Two years is still a reasonably long time to rebuild. The rise of Peter Obi nine months to the last general election and the impact the Labour Party made show that voters will reward a viable alternative platform.

The word here is viable. Not a party led by opportunists who have made a life career of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. Say what you like about Tinubu, he has stood with his progressive brand of politics for nearly 30 years, even standing alone against all odds and at significant personal and reputational costs.

Go, Atiku, go

If the PDP is serious about a future, and Atiku cares about it, he must immediately drop his ambition to run again. This ambition is at the heart of the current turmoil in the party; it was why the PDP broke into three factions on the eve of the last election; it was why he has been unable to rebuild the ruins two years later. And it is why he is arguably the first Nigerian presidential aspirant to lose two running mates to defections.  

There’s no point blaming Tinubu for the wreckage, or getting angry with Okowa for sexifying his incredible opportunism as the beginning of a movement. PDP will get a fresh start on life when Atiku, the main obstacle, steps down. Everything else is a waste of time.