The best moment for the combination of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Governor Peter Obi to clinch the presidency of Nigeria—as President and Vice President respectively—could have been in 2023.
But it is now like a pie dream, metaphorically

The duo, who had previously paired up in 2019 to contest against then-incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, made a significant impact by scoring 11,262,978 votes against Buhari’s 15,191,847—a winning/lossing margin of 3,928,869 votes. They came closer than many expected to dislodging Buhari from power.

However, the momentum gained in 2019 fizzled out, lost to what some pundits have described as miscommunication or conflicting body language between the pair. Recently, the two have been seen traversing the country, culminating in meetings in Abuja over the past weekend, apparently seeking a way forward to reignite their old political alliance.

In 2019, victory seemed within reach for the Atiku Abubakar–Peter Obi ticket. So much so that respected election experts, such as the late Prof. Humphrey Nwosu, former INEC chairman, believed that the opposition PDP may have actually won the election but was rigged out by the then-ruling APC.

After coming so close, it was natural to expect that the duo would build on their 2019 momentum heading into the 2023 contest. But perhaps driven by desperation, and guided by ambitions that did not align with the prevailing political winds, both men, of their own volition, chose to face off against each other instead.

As numerous pundits have noted, the combined total of over 13 million votes garnered by Atiku Abubakar (as PDP candidate) and Peter Obi (as Labour Party flag bearer) in 2023 far exceeded the little over 8.7 million votes earned by then-APC candidate Bola Tinubu, who ultimately won the presidential election.

Yet, President Tinubu has not rested on his laurels. Since taking office, he has worked assiduously to turn Nigeria’s economy around—from the financially strained status he inherited to a more resilient and forward-facing economic posture. Although his economic reforms have brought hardships, they are generally seen as necessary for the country’s long-term benefit.

Beyond economic policy, President Tinubu has launched a political charm offensive. He has been courting voters and political leaders across Nigeria’s 22 APC-controlled states—and beyond. This has led to an unprecedented wave of defections from opposition parties into the ruling APC, including governors, lawmakers, and party faithful.

The success of this political maneuvering has alarmed opposition parties, who now allege that Nigeria is drifting towards a one-party state akin to China or Vietnam—both authoritarian yet economically successful nations. I have long advocated for Nigeria to evolve its own indigenous brand of democracy, potentially a hybrid of the parliamentary and presidential systems, tailored to our unique cultural and political context. Why should we shun the Chinese or Vietnamese models outright, especially when they demonstrate effective economic governance? Unlike some analyst who are worried about Nigeria becoming a one party, if such a political snowball manifests , there will be a Big Bang which is a theory supporting the claim that the universe began with an explosion of a single particle at a definite centre point.
Based on the aforementioned theory , it is possible that before 2031 when the APC would have been in control of power in the centre consistently for sixteen (16) years, many more parties may spring out it.
Recall that the PDP imploded after 16 years (1999-2015) of consistently being in control of power during which internal schisms caused then ruling party to disintergrate with the current key political actors being the agent provocateurs for the scattering of the party when it became a behemoth.
Is it not such an irony that it is the same key players in the guillotining and burial of PDP that are currently jostling to form another Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to do to President Tinubu what they did to then President Goodluck
Jonathan in 2015?

But President Tinubu who appears to be ahead of the opposition in critical thinking has probably figured out their game plan and changed his strategy and tactics by throwing carrots as baits to the opposition which as usual is dominated by discontents from the APC and originally from PDP who have lost out in the power sharing matrix of the current ruling party and therefore seeking relevance by leveraging another platform.
The incumbent president who is currently the target of his former colleagues who want a piece of the pie has ecountered the opposition’s concerns by asserting that politicians are free to join the ruling party if they so choose, provided they are not coerced. He has even predicted more defections, confident in the old adage: nothing succeeds like success.

In a twist of fate, the political rift between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi—leading to their separate bids for the presidency in 2023—became Bola Tinubu’s biggest gain. Their failure to pragmatically manage their alliance after 2019 ultimately cost them a real shot at power.

Instead of regrouping to re-enact their 2019 partnership, suspicion and mistrust prevailed in 2023 and they are now licking their wound while trying to come up with a new strategy to challenge Tinubu one more time in 2027. But as they have ended up splitting the votes—especially in the South-East and South-South, PDP strongholds since 1999, the goodwill that they could have banked from their earlier alliance was squandered in 2023 and l believe nothing has changed as OBldients are to the left while PDP devotes are centrists.

Now, they appear to be trying to regroup in preparation for 2027 applying the tactic of coalition of opposition parties introduced by Tinubu in 2013. But the questions remain:
• Do they still command the same goodwill they enjoyed in 2019 and 2023?
• Are voters in the South-East and South-South still motivated to rally behind Peter Obi and the Labour Party?
• Do those who backed Atiku Abubakar still believe in his presidential project?

The political division between the two may have polarized their supporters beyond reconciliation. While many argue that Nigerian politicians are not ideologically driven, it’s clear that the PDP and Labour Party represent different ideological orientations. Consequently, some Obi supporters may never back Atiku, just as some Atiku loyalists may never support Obi.

It may also be true that voters who supported Tinubu in 2023 might reconsider in 2027. However, unlike Abubakar and Obi, Tinubu has not hopped from one party to another. He has remained ideologically consistent—from AD which later became ACN to APC, the latter being a merger of opposition parties that unseated the PDP in 2015.

In contrast, both Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have changed parties multiple times. Atiku has swung between the PDP and APC, while Obi moved from APGA to PDP, and then to the Labour Party. This inconsistency may haunt them in the minds of voters in 2027.

Given all this, the age-old adage “a house divided against itself cannot stand” comes to mind. And in Christian parlance: “May God cause my enemies to make mistakes that will promote me.”also rings true in this instance.
Both of these dictums seem to define the political fate of both Abubakar and Obi.

Have the PDP and Labour Party’s 2023 flag bearers made too many political mistakes to remain credible contenders in 2027? Have they exhausted their political goodwill?

In my 2019 book “Becoming President of Nigeria: A Citizen’s Guide”, I proposed that Atiku should enter into a one-term agreement with the South-East and South-South voters, making Obi his Vice President and future successor. That proposal, which they ignored, is now ironically being considered for the 2027 elections.

But as the old nursery rhyme says: It’s too late to cry when the head is off.

Simply put, Nigeria’s political tide has shifted. Old solutions no longer suffice. The coalition formula (Special Purpose Vehicle, or SPV) that succeeded in ousting the PDP in 2015 is now antiquated, especially as the ruling APC under Tinubu grows stronger.

Unlike Abubakar and Obi—who seem to have been doing the right things at the wrong time—President Tinubu appears to have been reading the political tea leaves correctly. His now-famous “Emi Lo Kan” (It’s My Turn) battle cry during the APC primaries reflected a prescient and confident approach to his presidential ambition, despite the obstacles placed in his path.

All said and done, with the opposition still in disarray and a crowd of presidential hopefuls angling to unseat President Tinubu, it’s hard to see how they can mount a unified challenge. Unless a political miracle occurs—where all opposition candidates agree to back a single contender—2027 increasingly looks like a done deal for Tinubu and the APC.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, and development strategist.