“Two men in a burning house must not stop to argue”- African proverb

The choice between a rock and a hard place describes a situation of being between two equally difficult, even impossible options. It is what comes to mind as a number of developments in the country are contemplated by people in a widely differing situations in the country as we speak.

 Let us start with a viral text allegedly posted by communities who have lived with, or, more appropriately, under bandits like Ado Aleiro, Bello Turji, Kachalla Habibu Sububu, Shingi, Black, Nashama, Gwaska and dozens of their satellites and rivals in much of the North West and North Central regions. The text appears to be a reaction to the reported arrest of the wife and mother of a leading bandit in Saudi Arabia while preparing to perform the Hajj. The post begs those who fight these bandits to stop these types of arrests, because it is their routine victims who pay the price whenever the state attempts to clamp on their activities and free communities from their strangleholds.

 Now, to be fair, another post denied that the leading bandit’s family was arrested. What complicates this development is the quality of the text from villagers pleading that the fight should be taken to the bandits/ terrorists where they are located, and not, as was reported, in the manner that exposes villagers to reprisals which compound their pathetic helplessness. It is even tempting to assume the bandits/terrorists themselves penned the plea, a subtle blackmail to stop the State from hitting bandits where it hurts: arresting their families.

 In any case, the point here is to highlight the desperate circumstances in which millions of fellow Nigerians live. Bandits and terrorists and other sundry threats have tightened their grips on lives of rural communities in most parts of the North. Those who survive and live in unsafe towns and villages are condemned to lives of wretched destitution in distant communities without means of dignified survival. Unlike the North East and North Central, the North West has no Internally Displaced Persons, IDPs, camps. Its hundreds of thousands of women and children and old people displaced by entrenched organized violence are begging in streets in northern towns and cities, including Abuja, as northern elites zoom past in tinted glasses. Young northern  men are being stopped, profiled and humiliated as suspects as they ride every moving contraption going South to find menial jobs.

 Hundreds of villages are emptied of strong farming hands. Those who choose to stay have to negotiate access to farms with bandits and terrorists, and this may include working on their farms as well. Even this does not guarantee that farmers can feed from, and sell some produce. Another group of bandits or terrorists, or even the same overlord, could invade to empty the villages’ barns; or burn down its  harvests as punishment for attempting to protect itself; or because its land is needed by expanding populations of bandits or new arrival terrorists, or for pure pleasure.

 The most severe punishment against the population is reserved for attempting to resist or reduce the impact of the bandit/ terrorist, and suspicion of collaboration with agents of the state. Communities watch with apprehension as young men step up to answer the call to protect dignity and possessions, encouraged by state governments who support vigilante groups. The bandit hates the vigilante with a passion, often reducing the job of the volunteer in resisting him to ethnic war, with him as victim. Hostage communities are the bandit/kidnapper’s oxygen. Without them, the State will blast him to pieces. Hostage communities know this, so they enter into a very difficult agreement to live at the mercy of the bandit/terrorist, who has the total freedom to alter the terms of the understanding.

 Governments and security agencies demand information and intelligence. The villagers know better. Same way villagers in many parts of the North East knew a long time ago. Security, as provided by the state, is distant and erratic. The bandit/terrorist  knows this. The State knows the bandit/ terrorist is in control of farmlands, markets, roads, schools and everything else that moves. The bandit/terrorist knows the limitations and constraints of state agents very well. His mere existence is evidence of weakness of the state. The failure of the state to defeat him is enough evidence that he is winning. The citizen is a victim of a weak state, and captive of brutal powers in a war with no rules. He could pay a huge price for resisting, even with his feet. That is his rock. He could also live on the margins of existence, without any influence over how or when his life will change.

 The conditions under which citizens live in most parts of the North can be replicated all over the country, with very few differences in details. The bandit is armed, rich and stuck in criminality without ambition or options, except to be a better bandit. He is the most vulnerable of the sundry threats that hold our communities hostage. He can and must be engaged with new resolve and creative mindset. The terrorist/insurgent seeks to capture and keep populations under his control and impose his worldview over them. He is resurfacing with greater sophistication and audacity. We cannot defeat him using the same methods that have failed in the last 15 years. Many communities are locked in a bloddy tit-for-tat in a country that should teach others the dangers of ignoring ethnic conflicts. They will escalate with spreading awareness that the State cannot, or will not protect citizens and institutionalize justice in inter-community relations. Our economy bleeds from sophisticated and widespread plunder of oil assets. You cannot fix the economy unless you plug this damaging and lucrative crime. Does the State have the will and the muscle to take on the most sophisticated and profitable crimes in the land? Is the leadership willing to take on sundry criminals that have gripped the entire South-East behind the facade of politics? We are all between a rock and a hard place: the State is unable to protect us, and the criminal offers nothing but greater pain. Something has to give.