Global economic leadersCOMMA WHO gathered in Washington DC for the International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank Spring Meetings which commenced this week, have been focused on how to navigate the tension created by the United States’ President, Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, ongoing trade wars, inflation fears and new worries about the prospect of a global recession.

As a journalist covering these meetings, it is visible that both multilateral institutions are presently under pressure from the Trump-led United States – their biggest financial contributor – as representatives of both organisations ensure they avoid confrontations or even questions from reporters that would pit them against the administration. Even criticism from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who demanded IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank President Ajay Banga refocus on core missions to gain the Trump administration’s trust, will not provoke them.

Already, the IMF has slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth.
According to the Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WE0), global growth forecast was cut by 0.5 percent to 2.8 percent for 2025, and by 0.3 percent to three percent for 2026, from its January forecast that growth would reach 3.3 percent in both years. The IMF estimated that inflation was expected to decline more slowly than expected in January, given the impact of tariffs, reaching 4.3 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, with “notable” upward revisions for the U.S. and other advanced economies.

“We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset,” IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said.
The IMF said the swift escalation of trade tensions and “extremely high levels” of uncertainty about future policies would have a significant impact on global economic activity.
For Nigeria, the economic growth projections for 2025 and 2026 were slashed downwards, reflecting the growing global uncertainties and sustained weaknesses in oil prices.

According to the WEO, Nigeria is now expected to grow by three percent in 2025 and 2.7 percent in 2026, down from its WEO forecasts of 3.2 percent and 3 percent, respectively, issued in January. The Fund attributed the downgrade to a mix of domestic challenges and worsening global conditions, including trade tensions, slowing demand from advanced economies, and a sharp decline in crude oil prices.
To Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, as the ripple effects of US’ reciprocal tariffs continue to reverberate, the reforms introduced since President Bola Tinubu assumed office have placed the economy in a stronger position than anticipated to absorb potential shocks. He listed reforms under the current administration to include fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalisation, reset of monetary policy, elimination of Ways and Means, among others.

“Nigeria hasn’t suffered from the same reciprocal-type regime pressures as other economies because ours has been paused. We’re in a better position today due to the reforms and progress we’ve undertaken. In Nigeria, I believe we can attract private sector investment. The progress we’ve made so far is significant, and our near-term priorities are taking shape amid widespread macroeconomic uncertainty around the globe.
“Under the leadership of the President, we have successfully implemented reforms that are quite unprecedented. These are reforms we’ve spoken about for years; reforms we promised we would complete, and this time, we stayed the course. Now we can confidently say that we have implemented difficult but necessary reforms,” Edun told a gathering of foreign investors and investment bankers in Washington DC.
According to him, the fuel subsidy was a major reform, which he put at about five percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.

“This, combined with the reforms on the monetary side, such as putting in place efficient market systems and enabling price discovery, not just in foreign exchange, but also in petroleum products, has created the foundation for renewed industrialisation in Nigeria.

“We are targeting seven per cent annual growth, and this is a commitment President Tinubu is serious about. We believe that level of growth is essential to lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty. We are pushing for inclusive growth. With macroeconomic stability largely restored, we are expanding our focus on agriculture, infrastructure, especially digital and finance. This includes crowding in the private sector at a time of constrained fiscal space. By addressing agriculture, infrastructure, and financial access, we believe Nigeria is now firmly on the path towards a seven per cent annual GDP growth exactly where we need to be,” he added.

One thing that also excite investors about the country is the revelation that its economic managers are in talks with JP Morgan for it to be admitted back into the JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index.
To the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country’s return to orthodox monetary policy is beginning to yield tangible results as he cited gains in macroeconomic stability, investor confidence, and improvements in Nigeria’s global credit ratings.

“The numbers speak for themselves. The difficult reforms we’ve undertaken are beginning to yield results. One of the most important decisions we made was to pursue orthodox monetary policy, an approach we were firmly committed to and have no intention of compromising on.
“As a result of this policy stance, we’ve been able to stabilise macroeconomic indicators. Today, we’re in a much better position than we were previously,” Cardoso, who spoke after Edun said.
Echoing the position of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy on Nigeria’s buffers against global volatility, Cardoso noted that while the country was not immune to global financial shocks, its exposure has been comparatively moderate. Cardoso stressed that rebuilding trust and confidence was central to the CBN’s agenda.
“There’s a common thread running through all our actions –  building confidence. We’re not claiming perfection, but we are making real progress. Confidence in the naira is strengthening and confidence in our policy direction is growing. And, perhaps most importantly, there is a renewed sense of hope in the country’s economic future.

“Nigeria’s credit ratings have improved, which signals that our reforms are working. But we remain realistic, we’re still navigating a highly uncertain global environment. Anyone who followed the recent World Bank and IMF meetings would know that economic uncertainty is a global theme, and Nigeria is not exempt,” he added.
From the foregoing, just like the global economy, the Nigerian economy is at a critical juncture. As the world grapples with a confluence of escalating uncertainties, the combined impact casts an ominous shadow over Nigeria’s economic outlook. To navigate this turbulent landscape and secure a prosperous future for its burgeoning population, Nigeria must adopt a proactive, diversified, and strategically agile approach.

Amidst these challenges lies an opportunity for Nigeria to chart a more resilient and sustainable economic path. Diversification of the economy away from its over-reliance on oil remains paramount. Investing strategically in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology can create new avenues for growth, employment, and export earnings, reducing vulnerability to global oil price fluctuations.  
Strengthening domestic production capacity is equally crucial. By fostering a conducive business environment, improving infrastructure, and providing access to finance, Nigeria can reduce its dependence on imports and build a more self-reliant economy. Investing in human capital through education and skills development will be essential to drive innovation and productivity across all sectors.  

Additionally, Nigeria must be on the driving seat in advancing intra-African trade and ensure that the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement becomes operational.
Finally, the central bank must maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance and remain vigilant so as  not to be caught flat-footed at a ttime like this and must ensure that it deploys its policy instruments proactively.