Is it possible that some of the actions, and inactions, of the Governor of Borno State have helped within the last three years to breed some of the problems that led to his recent outburst and sense of alarm over the return of serious security challenges in the state? Was his approach to making the problems public the best, in the circumstances? Was his characterization of the comments of the Minister of Information and National Orientation, in reaction to the latter’s characterization of the issues a bit out of context. Should he have still gone further on the matter, after the Minister’s office gave further clarification on the actual intents of the message?

But that all the forgoing is not our main concern today.

On September 10, 2021, this column had an article titled, “Why Zulum Needs Help and Support”, wherein it was said: “Several media platforms have called out the Nigerian state on the negative security implications, and likely disruptive impact, of the ongoing surrendering and reintegration of repentant insurgents. The subsisting perception, and fear, is that we may be making a grievous mistake. I share this perception and fear”.

Reacting to the clear of possible questionable backlash from the strange carrying on at the time, I also said in that article that “I almost have no doubt that there may yet be a catastrophic fallout from what we a seeing today. But is it not also true that the Borno State governor once expressed optimism while receiving the repentant returnee. But it is also true that the possibility of a cataclysmic threat to social stability to Borno State, and the nation, may be embedded in this development”?

That article was written mainly in order to draw the attention of Governor Zulum to the type of good he was ordering from Ariaria Market. The idea was to warn him that the neat invoice paper will not show the colour and smell of the goods being penciled down for procurement. But he was apparently not paying attention, I suppose. Instead he doubled down on providing relief for refugees, projecting very elaborate efforts at bringing normalcy to trouble communities and settlements by spending on rehabilitation, provision of food and comfort, etc. He was cheerfully running massive expenditure headings on a demographic group that would, to all intents and purposes, produce nothing and contribute nothing to the economy of the state.

For good measure, the demographic group in question also possessed very poor social skills, whether religious or communal. They would become a burden, one way or another. And that it what have now turned out to be, three and a half years down the road.

Here is the caption of a BBC story arising from Governor Zulum’s recent outcry about the resurrection of unmanageable criminality and disruptive kidnapping industry: “Nigerian Governor warns of Boko Haram Comeback”. The question not raised, and therefore not reported upon, is “Are there actions by the state government, besides the challenges facing military and security authorities, that led to the comeback?”

Those who may be quick to ask: “How could any actions, or inactions, of the state government have helped create any of the problems on the ground at the moment?” Should consider the following. At the time governor Zulum was receiving repentant Boko Haram insurgents a few years ago, some of us were warning the state about the possible future challenges that might arise therefrom. At the time the Borno State, in collaboration with some agencies of government, was announcing successful deradicalization programmes, some of us were crying ‘foul’ and pointing out that it would all eventually lead to an unsustainable living environment in Borno State.

Today, the chickens are all coming home to roost.

When, as member of a team from the Centre for Crisis Communication, we organized a programme on for all military, security and paramilitary personnel in Borno State about ten years ago, the Shehu of Borno raised serious issues about what he called “the pretense that a confirmed serial murderer who even killed his neighbour’s parents will suddenly change after spending two weeks half-listening to some people in an overcrowded hall”. This was during our courtesy visit to his palace, where he received us with all the members of his traditional council.

He noted with dismay the undue attention being given to the perpetrators of heinous crimes, while their victims who need rehabilitation are neglected. “Who told you they have changed in any way?”, he quipped at some point during the visit. For him, the actions of government needed some input from the traditional institutions that could be the link for lasting peace

Regarding Zulum’s recent utterances, local regular and digital media had several disconcerting titles and reports, just like that of the BBC. The reports were all in reaction to two developments, namely (1) Zulum’s justified outcry about increasing insecurity in his state and (2) Zulum’s reaction to a statement by the Minister of Information and National Orientation on the matter of security challenges in Borno State. All things considered; Governor Zulum may well have been in the news in recent times in the way some of us would have loved for him not to be. 

Matters were not helped by the fact that the governor’s own personal utterances including, especially insinuations about the capacity of some principal officers of state at the federal level, were taken up by a few other people around him. These have been mostly strategically unhelpful media interventions, from the angle of effective problem management. As things stand now, Governor Zulum needs to review his understanding of some aspects of the security problems of his state. He should also recalibrate his utterances, especially in connection with the Boko Haram resurgence.

The emerging events about which he was raising both hell and dust took a long time in brewing. He can also be calmly described as having inadvertently contributed to the problems he is complaining about.

It is true that insurgents who put down their guns deserve both consideration and forgiveness; especially where they are seen to be truly repentant. But, and this is where the problem begins, who is the seer that was consulted to confirm the genuine repentance of those who surrendered? How was it possible that Borno state received repentant Insurgents by the thousands and yet no one in government got any information about the whereabouts of their leaders, and their strongholds, from these repentants?

The aforementioned article said: “Acceptance, forgiveness and reintegration must be part of a holistic, well-choreographed intervention template”. Concerning the expected benefits of pandering to surrendering insurgents, the article went on to ask: “But what if all we are likely to get out of this is organized Capital Consumption and the opening up of supply lines for relief materials? An unhealthy increase in expenditure and consumption, and the fanning of public ceremonies will not give Borno State any lasting results, or promote Wealth Creation. So, no one should open up massive and unsustainable expenditure headings and leave a mess for Zulum to deal with.

Can we say for sure, today, that anyone really knew why thousands of insurgents suddenly “repented”. Can we say why the rare epidemic of droves of repentants later declined?

The earlier referenced article also observed: “Did the same Boko Haram not once call for a ceasefire, during the tenure of Badeh as Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), only to use the period to re-arm and re-group before resuming its attacks? Can Borno State speak of peace when sections of a group that has been living for too long outside the bounds of civility and rationality surrender (possibly) because of hunger, death of munitions, loss of leadership, or leadership acrimony, or all of the above? Are law abiding citizens wrong if they express reservations about having their former feared predators in their midst? Are Nigerians wrong in wondering aloud what such persons still really believe and want in the depths of their hearts? It all raises questions about how even the genuinely repentant ones among them are to be properly integrated into civil society”.

Some of the allegedly deradicalized insurgents do not want to return to their former communities, because of the types of heinous crimes they committed before fleeing. Has Zulum ever asked himself what sort of integration could have possibly taken place such that a man who wiped out an entire family, or even several families in a community, returns to the same community? How was Zulum able to confirm the successful deradicalization of those he reintegrated into society? How was the success endeavour measured, and by which team of trauma psychology experts? Is it possible to create a fundamental mind shift for thousands of religiously, politically, culturally and socially disoriented people in a matter of days, or weeks?

How was it possible to quickly find resources to rehabilitate the New Brides, even as some of them were seen almost immediately returning to the forest after a few days, or weeks, of good feeding? So, were they now actually sent to infiltrate the society, towards executing a final onslaught, for a complete takeover?

It is true that the governor was being realistic when he called on all to see the need to “… choose between an endless war or to cautiously accept the surrendered terrorists which is really painful and difficult for anyone that has lost loved ones, difficult for all of us and even for the military whose colleagues have died and for volunteers.” What was his follow-through action, though.

Besides the fact that Borno State has been a refugee/insurgents funds absorption basket, the resource going into managing security can be better deployed. So, let Governo Zulum not get too excited, so that he does not end up shooting himself in the foot. Let him use his own records to trace the insurgents he has reintegrated over time, find out their current means of livelihood and what they do with their free time; including taking part in some form of worship. That would be a good way to begin to get a sense of the success or failure of his leadership in this particular regard.

QUOTE:

As things stand now, Governor Zulum needs to review his understanding of some aspects of the security problems of his state. He should also recalibrate his utterances, especially in connection with the Boko Haram resurgence.