It comes as no surprise that the headlines have been dominated in part by the proposed formation of a mega coalition of opposition parties and politicians planning to unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and defeat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the next general elections in 2027.The whistle was blown last week, and since then there have been more revelations about how most of the would-be members of that coalition are aggrieved members of Tinubu’s own political camp – those who felt left out of the sharing of the spoils of victory after the 2023 elections, members of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), originally, a building bloc of the APC, as well as opposition party members. It is still early in the day to describe the exact shape and character of this proposed coalition in general. What is known for now, is that the emerging group is seeking accommodation in the Social Democratic Party (SDP), possibly a take-over of the party completely, and perhaps, an eventual creation of a new platform as was the case with the emergence of the APC in 2013. 

What is also known is that Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, a former two-time Governor of Kaduna State, former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and one of the original 37 persons that founded the APC, is the arrow-head of the latest political development, even if there are others in the background who are yet to take public ownership of their conspiracy. It is to El-Rufai’s credit that he has by his bold action changed the course of Nigeria’s political narrative ahead of 2027. He has ignited the fire of speculations and provided a meeting ground for all hidden and open anti-Tinubu conspirators. It looks like a scene out of William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar as the plot thickens against the ruler in Aso Rock. More than anything else, El-Rufai has reaffirmed his persona as a man who has fire and salt in his mouth to be deployed as it suits him. With the fire in his mouth, he has done considerable damage already to the reputation of the Tinubu administration. He has also de-marketed the APC. In an interview in the Leadership newspaper, three years ago, Governor Nasir El-Rufai, as he then was, was quoted as saying: “I’ll remain in APC till I die, the moment I leave APC, then I have quit politics altogether.”  Now, he no longer wants to die in the APC nor is he retiring from politics. Instead, he has left the party.  Nigerian politicians and the promises they make!

It is the same APC that El-Rufai promised to serve till death do them part that he has now dismissed as a “useless party.” He has accused the Tinubu administration of having no clue about how to run the country and its economic reforms as useless too. We have heard from El-Rufai also that most of Tinubu’s appointees lack merit and ability, and do not deserve the positions that they have been given.  He has also not minced words in saying that some of the Ministers bought their positions in the Cabinet. That certainly is a serious allegation: who is doing buying and selling with Ministerial appointments? How much was paid? To whom? By who? Where is the money kept? El-Rufai cannot make such a weighty allegation and leave it at the level of innuendo. His statement is defamatory per se. The onus is on him to provide evidence. For example, he had made the additional claim that the grand, anti-Tinubu/APC coalition that he is leading has the blessing of President Muhammadu Buhari: “I consulted Buhari on Friday; I told him my reasons for leaving the APC and the responses of other people I consulted. Buhari responded that he is now a statesman, but he knows my worries and prayed for me.” It didn’t take too long before President Buhari issued a statement to restate his loyalty to the APC and his commitment to continue to popularize the party that gave him an opportunity to be President of Nigeria for two terms (2015 – 2023). There is a touch of irony to it all, and perhaps poetic justice. A month ago, February 16, 2025, President Tinubu had publicly congratulated Mallam Nasir El-Rufai on the occasion of his 65th birthday, describing him as an “administrator, scholar, politician…highly regarded for his resourcefulness and brilliance…his endeavours for democracy; his meritorious service to the nation, and mentorship of the younger generation”. One month later, El-Rufai told the BBC Hausa Service: “We knew about Tinubu’s Chicago issues and still supported him; yet he failed Nigeria”. He was speaking to the Hausa listeners of the BBC, and by extension the entire North and Nigeria. President Tinubu got more than five million of his over eight million votes in the 2023 Presidential election from Northern Nigeria. Apparently, El-Rufai and his co-conspirators are determined to discredit him and expose whatever they know, or at best sow the seeds of doubt in the Tinubu Presidency. By mentioning Buhari’s name, he sought to incite the former President’s power base against Tinubu.

 The main reaction from the Tinubu camp and the APC has been to wave off the threat as inconsequential “inordinate ambition”, “political gyration” that should not disturb anybody, “a mistake”. I do not consider these responses robust and convincing enough. El-Rufai has knocked the very foundations of the party and maligned the President and the best that the APC and Tinubu’s spokespersons can come up with are dismissive one-liners? Not good enough. Not good enough. It would be risky to underestimate or downplay the El-Rufai threat. The Tinubu Presidency should not make the mistake that the Jonathan Presidency made in 2013/2014. When disgruntled politicians started gathering to talk about forming a formidable opposition to the incumbent administration at the time, there were persons in the corridors who boasted that they were making a mistake. I was in the corridors of power then, and I heard some commentators saying that the people in the APC were well-known customers (“customer daa da ni”), and that they would be given what would calm them down. In fact, some members of that coalition at the time even recommended persons to be appointed to the Board of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and they were given appointments. By the time, the ruling PDP and the Jonathan camp realized what was going on, the conspirators within and without had perfected their art of treachery. I am aware that there are some people who are of the firm view that Tinubu is not Jonathan or that 2027 is not 2015, whatever they mean by that, but it is precisely that level of over-confidence and arrogance that could give teeth to the anti-Tinubu plotters. 

It is wiser not to ever underestimate the opposition, conspirators or fifth columnists. Goliath underestimated David. Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, says: There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.” George S. Patton, United States Army General, advises, in addition that: “You shouldn’t underestimate an enemy, but it is just as fatal to overestimate him”. The latter part of General Patton’s statement should be carefully underlined and it is possible to extrapolate that the anti-Tinubu coalition faces by its very creation, a number of hurdles. I shall attempt to identify a few. 

One, the coalition is bound to be torn apart by the ambition of some of the major partners on the question of which part of the country should their Presidential candidate come from. It stands to reason that some key members of the coalition, from the Northern part of Nigeria would expect to be appointed the flagbearer, which however is likely to be unpopular with the conspirators from the South. The politics of region, geography, religion, and ethnicity is one of the major fault lines in Nigerian democracy. It is never a question of merit but always about where you come from and the type of religion you belong to. This was a major issue in 2010, after the death in office of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, also in 2011, and again in both 2015 and 2023, as it would be most certainly in 2027, and as it has been since the First Republic. After eight years of the Buhari/Northern Presidency, the Southern partners in the emerging coalition would naturally insist that to replace Tinubu who would have spent four years, the remaining four years must naturally, mutatis mutandis, go to a Presidential candidate of Southern extraction. 

Two, in determining the identity of that Presidential candidate of Southern extraction, the ethnic fight would also be more intense at the micro-Southern level. Igbo members of the coalition would of course insist that the strongest message that the coalition can convey is to zone the Presidency specifically to the South East, to allay the fears of Igbos about being marginalized out of the highest office in the land. South-South politicians are also likely to play the politics of entitlement. Already, some politicians from that region are pushing the view that if any party wants an alternative to President Tinubu from the South, the best bet would be to allow President Jonathan to return for a second term in office, a clear assurance that after four years of another Jonathan Presidency, power would simply rotate back to the North. Nobody should rule out the interest of South West politicians either. Some of the names that have been mentioned in connection with the emerging coalition, even if they have not personally confirmed their involvement, are also persons who would not hesitate to throw their hats into the ring, should the opportunity present itself. One or two of the names that have been mentioned would most likely insist that the candidate must not be any of Tinubu’s Lagos boys, whether that person has fallen out of favour with Asiwaju or not. Even among those former Tinubu allies who may be tempted to betray him openly, there is a deep-seated resentment of those they regard as Tinubu’s Lagos boys who have been majorly the ones who have benefitted from his administration so far. The foreseeable in-fighting and intrigues within the new coalition would be the biggest threat that it faces. 

Three, there will be a problem with the chosen SDP platform. Mr. Adewole Adebayo, the Presidential candidate of the party in the 2023 Presidential election has stated categorically during an interview on The Morning Show (TMS) of Arise News that he will most certainly be the Presidential candidate of the party in 2027.  When reminded of the timbre and calibre of some of the names that have been mentioned as moving into the SDP, he retorted that the SDP is “my party” and that no new person joining the party can come and take his party away from him! As it is, except Adebayo changes his mind through negotiations, and guarantees, the SDP may not promise any safe landing. This is meant to be a grouping of the opposition, but the Labour Party, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have declared that their own platforms should be the destination, rallying spot for opposition politics. 

Four, is history repeating itself? When the now divided bedfellows formed the All Progressives Congress in 2013, it was more or less a special purpose vehicle, and no more than that, to take power back to the North, defeat the PDP, and unseat President Goodluck Jonathan. At the time, there was very little talk about what the APC coalition wanted to do for the Nigerian people. It was all about personal ambitions and less about good governance and promoting the common good. 

As it were, however, politics as a wise man once told me is a question of strategy. In Nigeria, the man with the better strategy wins and that means winning by all and any means possible, while the aggrieved party is advised to go to court! Nigerian courts are also not beyond strategy or technicalities. Senator Adeseye Ogunlewe, former Minister of Works, in an interview on TMS/Arise News recently was quite effusive in describing President Tinubu as “a master of the game.” The current onslaught by his political adversaries may yet be the biggest challenge to his political craftsmanship. The anti-Tinubu assailants do not hide the fact that they want to teach him just one lesson: that Nigeria is not Lagos, it is a much bigger deal, with peculiar complexities. It would be interesting to see how the strategies play out and who wins or loses in the end. 

What I find amusing is a story in The Guardian newspaper of March 17, 2025 titled: “2027: Wike, others affirm support for Tinubu’s second term amid opposition.” Despite the fact that President Tinubu has publicly praised and endorsed Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister, and would seem to have taken his side in the “One Day, One Trouble” debacle in Rivers State, I do not consider Wike the right and proper person to lead Tinubu’s defence in the public arena. Wike’s belligerent politics should be seen as a costly embarrassment to President Tinubu. He has every right to affirm his loyalty to the President but he does not have what it takes to “help” him against those who want him out of power. The politics that he plays in Rivers State is precisely one of the reasons the opposition is against Tinubu. They accuse him of a Napoleonic approach to power, and so, they are organizing to confront him with their War of The Coalition. The Bourbons are knocking on Tinubu’s doors. Nyesom Wike who carries on as if he is doing Tinubu’s bidding in Rivers State, imposing himself as a Godfather, issuing threats and having his way, one man proving to be more important than the entire state, holding the people to ransom is the kind of impunity that Nasir El-Rufai deplores.  It is all the more scandalous as Wike is a mercenary in the APC, a PDP implant behaving like a co-President in an APC government. Wike even organized a media chat with a crew larger than that of President Tinubu! He has now instructed the 27 pro-Wike lawmakers to serve a notice of impeachment on Governor Simi Fubara, barely a week after he boasted that the impeachment of a Governor does not amount to a criminal offence.

But the worse chink in his armour is how his obstruction of the democratic process could have grave implications for Nigerian democracy. President Tinubu is advised to remember the blow-out in the Western region during the First Republic. The setting then is similar to the Rivers situation today: the conflict of egos, political gladiators, and the reign of impunity. When the Western region eventually exploded, what became known as the “Wild, Wild West”, the fire that was generated led to cracks across the entire Nigerian estate. History repeats itself tragically, and farcically, for those who refuse to learn from it. 

Perhaps the most important political event, this week in Nigeria, so far, nobody knows if there would be a free-for-all fight in Rivers state tomorrow, or some melodrama in Osun state or elsewhere, before the week runs out – is the announced defection of Mallam Nasir El-Rufai from the All Progressives Congress party (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP). In a signed statement dated March 10, 2025, El-Rufai says “at this point in my political journey, I have come to the conclusion that I must seek another political platform for the pursuit of the progressive values I cherish”. In plain terms, he no longer finds the APC useful, the same party which he had thought he would continue “to align (with) up to the time I choose to retire from politics”. He helped to create the party in 2013, and worked to secure the APC’s election victories in 2015, 2019, and we may add – 2023. It was on the platform of the party that he served as Governor of Kaduna state from 2015 to 2023. He says “the party has treated its membership with contempt in the last two years”. By this, he is obviously referring to himself. “I find this no longer acceptable”, he declares. And so now, in effect, El-Rufai has resigned from the APC to join the SDP and “adopt it as the platform for our future political engagements and activities”.  His objective is to help form “a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in all elections and bye-elections between now and 2027 by the Grace of God.” In other words, his goal is to get the APC out of power most certainly and with God as an accomplice!

Nasir El-Rufai joining the SDP is the fourth political platform that he would have been associated with publicly since the return to civilian rule in 1999.  His first port of call was the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) when President Olusegun Obasanjo emerged as President, after the June 12 debacle that lasted for six years with grave implications for national unity, progress and stability. In 2011, he became a member of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) after his return from exile. In 2013/14, he aligned with the APC, and now, he has ported as they say in common parlance to the SDP. Nasir El-Rufai according to those who knew him was a smart, resourceful little known Quantity Surveyor and Business Administrator with a First-Class brain, doing his own little thing in his own little corner until he was brought into public service first by the military administration General Abdusalami Abubakar in an advisory capacity. He eventually came into prominence when as is widely believed, he was invited to join the Obasanjo administration by Waziri Adamawa Atiku Abubakar who was then Vice President of Nigeria. He was appointed Director General of the Bureau for Public Enterprises (BPE). In that capacity, he proved himself as a competent and knowledgeable technocrat, becoming in the process a key member of the government’s economic team in key areas such as privatization, commercialization, energy security and the oversight of due process within the economy. Nasir El-Rufai was an influential member of an inner group within the Obasanjo team of well-informed, young technocrats and intellectuals – the shining stars of the administration; Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Oby Ezekwesili, Nuhu Ribadu, and Charles Chukwuma Soludo.  He had the ears and the eyes of the President.

He was later rewarded with a Ministerial appointment when he was appointed Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 2003. He was a colourful, bold, outspoken and assertive Minister who insisted on the sanctity of the Abuja Master Plan.  He earned a reputation as “Mr. Demolition,” demolishing over 900 buildings including the properties of highly placed members of society.  He ended up with not a few enemies, and a community of critics. The Obasanjo administration completed its tenure in 2007. The Yar’Adua administration that followed was practically anointed by President Olusegun Obasanjo but both Obasanjo and his foot-soldiers who wheeled the Yar’Adua Presidency into existence were disappointed. After an initial thank-you visit to Ota, accompanied by members of his family, Yar’Adua soon began to assert himself in power as his own man. He refused to kow-tow to any Godfather. Obasanjo’s former aides fared worse. Whatever sense of entitlement they thought they deserved was given short-shrift treatment by President Yar’Adua.  Nasir El-Rufai was one of the lonely victims of the period. President Goodluck Jonathan who had been Yar’Adua’s Vice President and who succeeded his boss after the unfortunate incidents of illness and death, and the doctrine of necessity also did not feel compelled to over-pamper the old Obasanjo brigade. Many members of the group naturally became critics of the Jonathan administration, yesterday’s men and women who fervently believed that they could sabotage the new power elite in Abuja to regain relevance. Those who could find programmes of study abroad did so, those who could find jobs too, some went into exile, while others found a new vocation as public affairs commentators and a censorious, aggrieved band of agitators.   

This group found an opportunity for vengeance between 2013 and 2014 when they joined forces with others, notably Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu and other members of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), as well as a faction of the PDP, known as the new PDP (nPDP) led by Senator Bukola Saraki. There was also General Muhammadu Buhari’s CPC, and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). These groups came together to form a party known as the APC on February 6, 2013.  Coalition politics had been tested with considerable success in other African countries – Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania - it was therefore not surprising that Nigerian opposition politicians embraced the same option. Nasir El-Rufai was indeed one of the key architects of the coalition. General Muhammadu Buhari was the candidate, the rallying point. He was re-packaged and sold to the Nigerian people as a soldier turned democrat. The APC was a gathering of strange bedfellows. They had one mission: to take power back to the North and to remove President Jonathan from power.  President Jonathan famously had said that his ambition was not worth the blood of any Nigerian. He was committed to the idea of free, fair and peaceful elections. When it became obvious that INEC was going to announce Buhari as winner in 2015, President Jonathan conceded defeat.  While President Buhari presided over Nigeria’s affairs at the centre, Nasir El-Rufai was Governor in Kaduna State (2015 – 2023) with considerable influence within the ruling party.  

I have given this background to paint a picture of how Mallam Nasir El-Rufai has been part of the making of Nigerian politics since 1999. He has told part of his own story in a book titled The Accidental Public Servant (Safari Books, 2013, 712 pp). In the lead up to the 2023 general elections, he was one of the voices of reason in the APC who defended the principle of Rotational Presidency, in this instance from North to the South and he supported Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who claimed the credit for bringing Buhari to power as a civilian President in 2015, and insisted that in 2023, it was his turn to become Nigeria’s President. “Emilokan (It is My Turn), he said. Given the fervour with which Mallam El-Rufai championed Tinubu’s cause, it was perfectly reasonable that he would expect to be rewarded for his loyalty and support. The hope that this would be so was in fact raised by Asiwaju Tinubu, himself, who as President-elect publicly announced that El-Rufai would be a member of his team. It was an open invitation with witnesses in attendance, the only person to be so honoured by the in-coming President. Politicians invest. They expect returns on their investment.  They may mouth platitudes about serving the people but they are actually in politics to serve their own selfish interests. There may be exceptions to the rule and there are notable ones including Nelson Mandela, Obafemi Awolowo, the Sardauna Ahmadu Bello, Margaret Ekpo, Aminu Kano, Ibrahim Waziri, Tafawa Balewa… El-Rufai, as expected made the list of Ministerial nominees but to everyone’s consternation, he purportedly failed security screening. How? The President had cleared him even before his nomination. His friend, from their days of partnership and comradeship since the Obasanjo years, was the National Security Adviser (NSA). Nuhu Ribadu would not clear Nasir El-Rufai? Which security clearance is that? Well, that was the beginning of Nasir El-Rufai’s troubles or the complication of it. A perfect storm. Trouble in Paradise. He would later be accused of mismanagement of public funds by the Kaduna State House of Assembly. The lawmakers said they were looking for N423 billion! purportedly spent without following “due process”. He denied any wrong-doing during his eight years as Governor of the State. 

Some of the officials who worked with him as Governor, including his Chief of Staff and four others were called in for investigation and interrogation. They were later arraigned by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) on charges of money laundering. It did not take too long before El-Rufai, known for his outspokenness, started fighting back. In January, he said he could no longer recognize the APC – a party that he helped to create, which has now been taken over by others and he has been left behind. The party, he affirmed, no longer practices internal democracy, it has since abandoned its founding principles and has been taken over by illiterates and internal mercenaries!  “No party organ has met in two years – no caucus, no NEC, nothing. You don’t even know if it is a one-man show; it’s a zero-man show.” By February this year, the matter had degenerated into a face-off between Mallam El-Rufai and NSA Ribadu. The former Governor condemned the President’s economic reforms and the quality of the people implementing the reforms, some of which he considers “wrong.”  He frontally accused the President of being the one who rejected him as a Ministerial nominee. Still firing from all cylinders, El-Rufai said his friend, Ribadu is not good enough to be the country’s National Security Adviser. He accused him of working hard to tarnish his reputation, because he thinks he, El Rufai, poses a threat to his 2031 Presidential ambition. The biggest blow came yesterday with him walking away from the APC. 

This should not be surprising to students of Nigerian politics though. It is usual practice for Nigerian politicians to move from one political party to another. They are driven not by ideological beliefs, or principles, but convenience, expediency or wherever they think they can easily realize their ambitions. There are Nigerian politicians who since 1999 have been in different political parties.  This is Nasir El-Rufai’s fourth. He must be given credit however for the forthrightness of his defection statement: he is calling on opposition politicians to unite and get the APC out of power in 2027. He is not quite mouthing those pretentious cliches about saving Nigeria. He has drawn a line in the sand. His exit from the APC is the equivalent of the declaration of political war. 

This was a strategy that worked in 2015. But there is no guarantee that it would work again this time around. Nonetheless, it is clear that El Rufai is not alone. He has been seen visiting and meeting with other politicians who many have an axe to grind with President Tinubu and the APC, and there has been so much talk about a Grand Coalition to unseat President Tinubu in 2027. This is easier said than done. It may not be so easy to intimidate Tinubu out of office, and certainly not by the likes of politicians who were once beneficiaries of his own method of politics. They know him. He knows them too.  Those who do not know anybody are the hapless masses in whose name the politicians commit atrocities, and settle their differences when it suits them. Tinubu also does not have a strong opposition challenging his government. Between 2013 – 2015, the then emergent APC had a team of aggressive, hyperactive and hypertensive spokespersons who specialized in abusing and attacking the Jonathan administration. I should know. I was a constant target of their malicious vituperations.  President Tinubu does not have that kind of challenge. He has at least one prominent agent within the PDP, at the highest levels, who is also within the corridors of power serving Tinubu. The planned Grand coalition of anti-Tinubu opposition forces may also be dead on arrival as there is no clearly identifiable, symbolic figure to lead the gathering. The ambitions of the key figures are equally dissimilar. Nasir El-Rufai who has now presented himself as a rallying and roving coordinator plays a kind of politics that could alienate many. As Governor in Kaduna State, he was constantly accused of favouring one religion against the other, and within the larger Nigeria space, his critics consider him a polarizing, irredentist.  The SDP which he has opted to join had its brightest moment in Nigerian politics way back in 1993, when Chief MKO Abiola won the June 12 Presidential election on its platform, and even that outcome was annulled. That was 32 years ago! By showing his hands and intentions so early, so prematurely, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai may have begun a long journey into political wilderness. As a two-time yesterday man, he should know better, except he is playing the Trumpian game of striking first, to force a negotiation. But even that does not look like a prospect. The Presidency has dismissed El-Rufai’s defection as “inordinate ambition.” His former colleagues in Kaduna APC have simply said: “we are unperturbed… we are not disturbed and we are not going to lose sleep over El-Rufai’s moves.” 

“Have you been following the developments at the Lagos State House of Assembly?”

“High wire politics. Power Game. Man pass man. Man pass woman. Two Speakers in 50 days. Perfect material for a Nollywood film”

“Omo… as in …!”

“But I think the state lost the opportunity of having a female Speaker of the House for the first time in history.”

“That has already been established. History has been made It is now on record that Mrs Mojisola Meranda once served, no matter how briefly, as Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly. She has broken the jinx. But the whole drama is not about gender balancing, or gender equity, it is about following due process and respecting the power calculus in the state.” 

“The Constitution is very clear. It says in Section 92 (2) that the members of the House shall choose their own Speaker and Deputy Speaker from among themselves. Which also means that they have the right to appoint and remove whoever they put in those two positions. The Speaker in particular is only first among equals, not the Babangida of the Assembly”

“I think we have to leave the Constitution out of this. This is about power and influence. Speaker Mudashiru Obasa has just shown that he is not anybody’s mate in that House.”

“What kind of talk is that? They are all colleagues. Even Obasa himself says the people who removed him as Speaker behind his back are his brothers and sisters”

“And you believe that? Did you not see all the drama? Brothers and sisters who voted against him, held press conferences to condemn him and openly humiliated him at every turn. Is that how a brother treats another brother?”

“It is part of the price anybody in a leadership position has to pay. Obasa has been Speaker for 10 years. I think the whole drama should be a wake-up call for him. He must have learnt some lessons about his environment and more lessons about politics.”

“I understand now that he has been reinstated, he is also expected to resign in the days to come and another person from Lagos West will be chosen as Speaker”

“I don’t think so. Nobody wins a battle and gives away the spoils of victory. I see him sitting firmly on that seat till 2027. He may even return as Speaker after the next House of Assembly elections. The people who have lost out are the people who opposed him.”

“How? They are properly elected representatives of the people.  They owe their constituency a responsibility to make laws for the good governance of the state.”

“You are very sure they were elected by the people?”

“Yes, of course”

“In this Lagos state?”

“Elections were held. People trooped out to vote in the various constituencies. Other parties took part in the elections” 

“I hear you. But go and write it down, most of those lawmakers who opposed Obasa and refused to listen to the directives of the Godfather, they and their Baba Sope sponsors, will be pushed out before the 2027 general elections.”

“This is a democracy. They have the right to express themselves.”

“Yes. Freedom of speech. But that will not guarantee their re-election. I imagine they will be on all fours now, begging, pleading for mercy.” 

“Mercy from whom? I thought you said the Speaker of the House is only first among equals.”

“Yes. But this is a clear case of my Godfather is bigger than yours. What those 36 lawmakers in Lagos State did was to embarrass Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Godfather of Lagos politics, and the President of Nigeria. For a whole month, they portrayed Lagos State as a wild part of Western Nigeria.  Very bad optics. All of a sudden, the President looked as if he had lost control of his own state. This is a man who has been called upon to look into the crisis in Rivers and Osun states. With his own political family, the APC in Lagos engaged in street fighting, what moral right does he have to provide leadership in the political crisis in other states?”

“It is democracy, though.”

“It is not part of democracy for you to expose your leader, and the President of Nigeria to ridicule and not expect consequences.” 

“Okay. Okay. Obasa is back. Mojisola Meranda has also been returned to her former position as Deputy Speaker. The status quo ante bellum has been restored. Now, going forward, what the people of Lagos State need is peace, not in-fighting by their lawmakers. Obasa must find a way of working with other members of the House, particularly Deputy Speaker Meranda. He is a leader. He cannot afford to isolate himself. He has proved his point and his value. I understand he is the political leader of Alimosho political constituency. Nobody can become Governor of Lagos State without winning that Constituency. It is the largest political constituency in Lagos State, Nigeria and the whole of Africa!”

“Fine. But have you asked yourself why all of this will happen and the Governor of Lagos State did not nip the crisis in the bud? He allowed the crisis to fester.”

 “No, I disagree. What do you expect him to do? When it is convenient, we talk about separation of powers. When politics and expediency merge, we abandon principles and blame others. You do me, I do you, God no go vex. When Obasa publicly humiliated Governor Jide Sanwoolu, kept the man waiting for five hours when he went to present the Budget for 2025, and humiliated him further by saying he too could be Governor, that kind of behaviour has consequences too.”

“So, this is all about ego then? Tinubu gets thoroughly embarrassed because of the ego of his own boys? I hope Sanwoolu knows that allowing Tinubu to be embarrassed under his watch could have consequences too. We may just not have seen the end of the tragi-comedy in Lagos state” 

“What annoys me, to tell the truth, is that the fight is not about principles. I have read stories indicating that the Lagos lawmakers turned against Obasa because he was not giving them enough money. One of them even said the Speaker refused to pay his hospital bills when he took ill.” 

  “Well, that is some useful information for the voters in Lagos. Their lawmakers just want to share money. It is about their personal pockets, not democracy. It is shameful. No. It is not shameful. It is worse than shameful. I said ego. You talk about money. In Igbo language, money is actually EGO. You see, we are actually saying the same thing.” 

 “I just think that President Tinubu should watch it. There is trouble in Lagos State. There is tension in Osun State. Two states in the South West, his own region of the country. In both places, the President’s party, APC, is the problem.” 

“APC again? 

“Yes. APC. In July 2022, then Governor Gboyega Oyetola, Tinubu’s cousin had conducted elections into Local councils without giving the mandatory one-year notice required by the Electoral Law of the state. He gave a 40-day notice. Adeleke, not yet elected Governor, went to court. The APP too. The Federal High Court, Akure declared the local council elections null and void. The elections held and of course the APC won every single seat. Adeleke, now Governor, refused to recognize that election. The APC local council chairmen who had been elected fought the matter all the way to the Court of Appeal sitting in Akure. The Court of Appeal recently ruled on two grounds (a) notice of election and (b) the time of filing the suit by the PDP, and dismissed all other prayers as academic. The Court gave no consequential orders, no reinstatement order, and did not upturn the judgment of the Federal High Court.”

“I am listening”

“It was a 53-page judgment. On the basis of this, the Adeleke administration organized fresh local council elections on the order of a court. The APC council men claim they are the legitimate council officials. Local council officials are on strike in the state. Tension everywhere.” 

“I get it. I get it. The APC officials are misinterpreting the court ruling because they have a Godfather in Abuja “

“I have not said it is Tinubu pulling the strings in Osun oh”

“No. I get it. I read stories showing that the Attorney General of the Federation gave instructions to the Osun State Governor to recognize the APC agitators. The Inspector General of Police also supported the AGF’s directive. AGF plus IGP on one matter equal to Tinubu when you do your calculations. Simple logic.”

“I just know that peace should be allowed to reign in Osun. The APC National Chairman, Dr Abdullahi Ganduje, once boasted after the Ondo state governorship election in 2024, that the APC will take over Oyo and Osun states in the next elections. I hope this is not the sign that we are beginning to see: the grand plan by the APC to create a political homogeneity in the South West.” 

“Court rulings must be respected. The rule of law must prevail.”

“I believe you will say the same about Rivers State where the Supreme Court has upheld the defection of the pro-Wike, anti-Fubara 27-man Amaewhule faction in the Rivers State House of Assembly from the PDP to the APC, and has also ruled that the state can no longer get Federal allocations until Governor Simi Fubara re-presents the state’s 2025 budget to the Martins Amaewhule faction. The court also nullified the local government election conducted last year by Fubara.  I see Governor Fubara has been putting up a bold face, commissioning one project after the other. The truth is that he has been thoroughly humiliated. Minister Nyesom Wike has won.”

“I am more concerned about the people of Rivers State. It looks like it is the people of Rivers State who have lost out. But I really cannot comment on the judgment of their Lordships until I see the Certified True Copy (CTC) of their submissions. I am confused. What are they saying for example about the precedent in Abegunde v Ondo State House of Assembly which they decided in 2015, and what the Constitution says in Sections 68(2) and 109(1)(g) on the illegality of cross-carpeting? Those are the core issues.” 

“Hmm. The jungle has finally matured. Fubara is about to be taught a lesson for standing up to his Godfather. It is the same thing. Do you think he will now be impeached? “  

“It depends on how he plays his game. He may just have to respect the unfavourable Supreme Court judgment and find a way to go and beg Wike in Abuja. He has already directed his own local council chairmen to hand over to the heads of administration in their councils, effective March 3. The former pro-Wike local council chairmen whose tenure was extended by six months are on their way back to office.”  

“But I hear members of the South-South Elders Forum are advising Fubara not to beg anybody, because they will not. I think those elders should just go and sit down somewhere. They are the same elders who pushed Fubara to this point of humiliation.” 

“Not a fair comment. The elders are saying that Wike is no longer Governor of Rivers State and he cannot continue to run riot over the state from Abuja. After the Supreme Court judgment, Wike held a thanksgiving session in his house. Please how can one man constitute himself into such a nuisance? He is a threat to democracy in Rivers.” 

“He has a big Godfather. It is President Tinubu who is indulging him. He knows he has the President behind him. The President himself praised him on live television. We all know that. Wike might as well do what he likes with Rivers state.”

“Is that democracy? Godfathers everywhere. Even in the National Assembly.” 

“I have not seen the hands of any Godfather in the National Assembly, at least not in the recent salacious case of cuckoldry allegations by Senator Natasha Akpoti”

“That’s another material for Nollywood. Except that it is not funny. We cannot afford to have a National Assembly that spends its time again and again having to deal with a House of Representatives member who beats up a woman at a sex toy shop, a Senate President who gets accused by Joy Nunieh, and now a married female Senator alleging that the Chairman of the National Assembly, the same Senator Godswill Akpabio was making sexual overtures to her and harassing her.”

“I agree with the former Senate President, Senator Bukola Saraki in the matter. We should be more worried about the integrity of the institution. We must rescue that institution. Our National Assembly must not become a comedy house of errors. The matter should be referred to the Ethics Committee of the Senate and both parties must submit themselves to the authority of that Committee. Senator Natasha Akpoti says she has evidence. She who alleges must prove. Simple” 

“Nothing will come out of it. You want to bet? This is the point. Senator Akpabio has a Godfather that is bigger.”

“Who is that?”

“Who else? And as for Senator Akpoti, except she brings out that concrete evidence she claims she has, she should begin to prepare for worse humiliation in that Senate. I hear the other Senators are actually making jest of her. They are saying even if a mosquito, the male anopheles, hovers too closely around Senator Akpoti, she will scream that the mosquito is sexually harassing her, and go to court. She alone, Governor Yahaya Bello, then Reno Omokri, and now the Senate President. Next time she uses that trope, nobody will pay attention to her.”  

“You are taking sides.”

“No. Just thinking aloud…I also heard that the male lawmakers in the National Assembly have all resolved that if Senator Akpoti smiles at them, they will never smile back!” 

“Ha Ha. You kept making this point about Godfathers. It is not only in Nigeria though. Look at the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. He went to the United States, looking for the Godfather’s support against Russia. For merely expressing an opinion about Putin, he was openly humiliated by President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. I have never seen a thing like that. The President of a sovereign nation tongue-lashed like that? Even his dressing was questioned and he was ordered to leave the White House.” 

“Godfathers are not always nice. When you stand up to them. They crush you. I thought that was a diplomatic blunder by the way. Why conduct public policy and diplomacy on live television? I pitied Zelensky. He and his country were made to look small. And America first.” 

“He was humiliated. He learnt his lesson. Beware of the Godfather.”

The most important event in Nigeria in the last week has been the publication and public presentation in Abuja, of a book titled A Journey in Service: An Autobiography of Ibrahim Babangida. In many ways, this should be perfectly understandable. General Babangida was Nigeria’s military ruler (1985-1993), although he styled himself President, to show as he argues in this book, his preference for the Presidential system of government. Since he “stepped aside” as he claimed in 1993, and with rumoured and failed attempts to “step back” in 2007, IBB, as he is known has remained topical and controversial in Nigerian politics. The big things around his neck include the assassination of Newswatch journalist, Dele Giwa in October 1996 and the annulment of the June 12, 1993 Presidential election, which he has now openly admitted was won by Chief MKO Abiola (pp. 390 - 391).

General Babangida argues that “this is not a book about finding blame, inventing excuses or whitewashing known facts.”(p. xv).  But that is precisely what the book is all about, for the most part. This is certainly not the first attempt to write General Babangida into the positive side of history, such enterprise has been quite an industry over the years for a number of intellectuals and non-intellectuals alike. The basic references in this regard would include Chidi Amuta’s Prince of the Niger: The Babangida Years, published in 1992 by Dr. Yemi Ogunbiyi’s Tanus Communications. Interestingly, both Drs Amuta and Ogunbiyi are acknowledged in this book as two of Babangida’s friends who encouraged him to write A Journey In Service. The story is even more interesting with the reference to Dr. Chidi Amuta who after the annulment of the June 12 election, had written what sounded like a renunciation of Prince of the Niger in a scathing re-appraisal of Babangida’s Presidency.  Dr. Amuta, like the alleluia chorus of praise-singers who attended the presentation of this book in Abuja, have with the benefit of hindsight, rediscovered their “Prince of the Niger.” 

This was the same man the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), the Nigerian media, civil society and others described as “Maradona” or “the evil genius. The hypocrisy that we have witnessed, the gutless amnesia on display speaks to the hollowness of the Nigerian character. History is written by the living and if you live long enough, you would find a ready audience for your side of the story. Students of the Babangida story in our national life should also remember the book, Foundations of a New Nigeria by Sam Oyovbaire and Tunji Olagunju, and Transition to Democracy in Nigeria (1985 – 1993) by Tunji Olagunju, Adele Jinadu and Sam Oyovbaire (1993). When Babangida turned 65 on August 17, 2026, two groups – Initiative for Equal Co-Existence and IBB for President Organisation organised a four-day carnival-like event in Abuja to celebrate him. The newspapers were awash with adverts and Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, his first Minister of External Affairs, delivered a friendly lecture. 

What is new is that this is the first time, apart from media interviews in the past, that General Babangida is telling his own story in full detail, and the product is a 440-page book in Five Parts and 13 Chapters, with a prologue, an epilogue, acknowledgements and appendices. It is an interesting, intriguing and engaging personal narrative about his life and his “journey through Nigeria’s path to the public.” (p. xviii). Dedicated to his parents: Isha Aishatu and Muhammadu Badamasi, “our fallen heroes, my comrade in arms who fought gallantly to protect the unity of Nigeria” and his wife, Maryam Ndidi Babangida, the foreword is written by General Yakubu Gowon, Nigeria’s military Head of State, 1966 -1975. I consider the book an important and welcome contribution to the extant literature on Nigeria’s political, social and military history, written by a direct participant for more than three decades in that history, and whose perspectives shed more light on not just the general history of Nigeria but also the Nigerian military, the civil war, ethnic politics, coups and coup-making and the challenges of leadership and governance. Babangida enriches our knowledge and public discourse with his boldness to tell his story. This is an example that should be emulated by other Nigerian leaders, for it is from the interplay of narratives that a more robust context of our historical experience can be constructed for public enlightenment.  I am however concerned that most of the persons who have been running commentaries on this book in the last few days sound typically Nigerian- commenting on a book they have not read, even when the full text was already in circulation on social media before the public presentation ended. There is more to this book than the civil war and June 12. 

It is a sinful act of dishonesty and mental laziness for anyone to run commentaries on the basis of hearsay. Curiously, this is one book, whose open piracy has not attracted complaints about copyright and intellectual property rights. With about N17 billion donated at the book presentation and the launch of a proposed Babangida Presidential Library, the bulk of that donation done on behalf of “all Nigerians”, many think that the retired General is getting more than he deserves. Sometime in 2002, General Yakubu Gowon had publicly apologised to the people of Asaba over the 1967 Asaba massacre; on another occasion he apologised to Professor Wole Soyinka for his incarceration during the civil war. Perhaps, following this cue, Professor Soyinka during a visit to Kaduna prisons had remarked that Babangida owes Nigerians an apology for annulling the June 12, 1993 Presidential election. He does something close to that in this book, with caveats to which I shall return, but what is frightening is that rather than interrogate Babangida’s acceptance of responsibility for what went wrong, most of those who attended his recent Abuja event behaved and spoke as if it is Nigerians who owe Babangida an apology! This looked like they were dancing on Dele Giwa’s grave, and spitting at MKO Abiola’s tombstone.     

In the first Three Parts of the book: Early Years, Early Military Career and Governance and Military Rule – The Murtala Muhammed Years - written in lucid and readable prose, the author leads us on a journey through his family background in Wushishi and Minna, how he came about the name Badamasi, and later Babangida, his early school years at the Gwari Native Authority Primary School, the death of his father, and how he ended up at Provincial Secondary School, Bida (founded in 1910), which later became Government Secondary School, Bida. He tells the stories of his teachers and also his classmates, and how his stocky physique and sporting skills earned him the nicknames - “Blockbuster and Kulele”. In November 1962, Babangida and some of his classmates including Garba Duba, Sani Bello, Mohammed Magoro, Gado Nasko and Mamman Vatsa were encouraged to join the military by their teacher, Papa Onimole (later Dr Adeyemi Onimole) and also by Captain Yakubu Gowon, Sir Ahmadu Bello, Alhaji Ibrahim Tanko Galadima and other Northern officials who visited their school. In December 1962, they were admitted into the Nigerian Military Training College (NMTC), founded in 1960, the precursor to the Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA). The Northern political elite saw a future in the military for young Northerners and had actively mobilized them to become soldiers.  

In Part Two, Babangida offers an insight into the early history of the Nigerian military and the training that he and his colleagues received at the NDA and the early friendships that he forged with others with whom his path crossed at the Academy. He and others received further training in India, at the India Military Academy, Dehradun now in Uttarakhand and returned to Nigeria in January 1964 as 2nd Lieutenant. In this part of the book, General Babangida gives an interesting account of the January 15, 1966 coup and the counter-coup of July 15, 1966, and the ethnic colouration that the events assumed, and this has been perhaps a controversial part of the book resulting in name-calling and abuses, which I find shocking and unnecessary.  The author is accused of claiming that the January 15, 1966 was not an Igbo coup. He has been asked at what point did he arrive at that since he participated in the killing and marginalization of Igbos during the civil war and after. My own reading of the author’s submission is that the coup plotters of January 1966 were driven by ideology, rather than ethnic sentiments. They were idealists not ethnic gladiators.  Major Kaduna Nzeogwu, who led the coup “was only Igbo in name”. He was born and raised in Kaduna and was “as Hausa as any!” (p.59). He was also the first Nigerian soldier with training in intelligence and in that position he and his colleagues were privy to the excesses of the political elite of the time. There were non-Igbo officers in the coup-making, and part of their plan was to release Chief Obafemi Awolowo and make him “the executive provisional president of Nigeria” (p. 60). 

Babangida explains convincingly that the problem was what came after.  It was an Igbo man, General Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi who emerged as Head of State after the January coup. This led to suspicions in the North that Igbos were planning to dominate Nigeria after killing prominent Northern leaders including the Sardauna and his wife and the much-loved Brigadier Zakariya Maimalari. The coup- makers were not punished, instead some of them were promoted. To worsen matters, the Aguiyi-Ironsi-led administration introduced the Unification Decree No. 34 of 1966 which Babangida says was “a significant disadvantage to Northern Nigeria” (p. 62). This infuriated young Northern soldiers who staged a counter-coup on July 28, 1966.  There is not much that Babangida has said here that is unknown, either about the coups of 1966 or the Ironsi administration, but it is a measure of how deeply divided Nigeria is along ethnic lines that this has generated so much furore. 

Subsequently, Babangida gives an account of the Nigerian civil war, the horrific circumstances that led to it, the blow out in the North and the massacre of Igbos, the Aburi Accord, and the beginning of the war. He was sent to the 1st Infantry Division in the Nsukka sector, under Colonel Muhammed Shuwa as sector commander. I doubt if anyone would disagree with the author’s conclusion about “the futility of war” (p. 66) or that “War is horrifying and painful. All wars erode human dignity in places and sometimes destroy the best in us and remain so for a long time.” (p. 95). Truly, Nigeria is yet to recover from that war that ended on January 15,1970. The scars remain. The country is still at war with itself. Part Three is devoted to the Murtala Muhammed Years. I find particularly useful here, the author’s reflections on “coup d’etats and the Nigerian military” (pp. 104 – 115) especially his submission that military interventions in politics are often prompted by the failure of the civilian leadership and the political class and that the military alone cannot be blamed; the civilian populace often invites and welcomes military interventions. 

On August 27, 1985, Babangida emerged as Nigeria’s new Head of State after a bloodless coup that ousted Major General Muhammadu Buhari.  In Chapter Six titled “Mounting the Saddle, Defining a Military Presidency” (pp. 137 – 170), he describes the circumstances of his emergence and his priorities in settling down to office. Chapter Seven – “Reforming the Economy: Privatisation, IMF, SAP and other matters” explains the open, free market, liberalization and privatization directions of his administration and the IMF loan debate which led to a home-grown Structural adjustment Programme (SAP). In Chapter Eight, Babangida reflects further on some of the highlights of the new socio-economic order that he introduced – People’s Bank, Community Banks, DFRRI, and MAMSER. Chapter Nine is focused on Foreign Policy – Nigeria’s leadership of ECOMOG, restoration of ties with Israel, Concert of Medium Powers, Hosting the OAU, and the Technical Aid Corps. In the foregoing, Babangida thus deals with the highlights of his stewardship and whereas many persons may pick issues with his economic policies and manipulative political engineering processes, no one could readily doubt the fact that he ran a hardworking, well-meaning, charismatic government. He recruited some of the brightest brains in the land, from every part of the country, creating a cult of pro-Babangida intellectuals and technocrats. 

It is in Chapter 10 that the author finally arrives at the controversial issues of his tenure. He calls them “the challenges of leadership.”  On each of the issues, he offers “excuses” that are either downright disingenuous or that may be legitimately considered insulting by the affected parties.  He tries to rewrite history.  On the death of Dele Giwa, he blames the Newswatch team for “playing to the gallery” (p.  226), the media for hysteria, and he plays the victim. Years later, the question is still being asked: Who killed Dele Giwa? He was President of Nigeria. He could not solve the riddle. On “The Vatsa Coup” (pp. 207 - 231), again Babangida plays the victim, relapsing into a schoolboy tirade about how Vatsa had always been envious of his achievements since their secondary school days! Babangida should repeat that to Hajiya Safiya, Vatsa’s widow and her children, and have a second look at a documentary titled “A Widow’s Pains, A General’s Burden” (2006). He also reflects on the Gideon Orkar Coup, the OIC palaver, the 1989 SAP Riots, and the C-130 Air Crash. Other issues are covered in an interview with TELL magazine reproduced as Appendix II (pp. 342-379). Chapter 11 is a well-considered tribute to his wife, Maryam - without doubt an outstanding First Lady, a memorable Juliet to Romeo IBB, and an accomplished citizen in her own right. 

In Chapter 12, the book reaches its highest moment titled “Transition to Civil Rule and the June 12 saga.”  Here, Babangida tries to whitewash his own story. He says he regrets the annulment of June 12 1993 election. Mistakes were made. And although he accepts responsibility, he wants it known that Abacha-led forces were the ones who suspended the announcement of the results and when the Presidential election was annulled, it was done without his knowledge. He claims he “had a duty to protect the country at all costs” (p. 288). In retrospect, it looks like the General. was so afraid of his own lieutenants, he was more interested in saving his own neck! His June 12 story is a confession of cowardice. Is he aware that many died and Nigeria suffered because of that annulment?  Many years after him, a Goodluck Jonathan as President stopped an attempt by a certain Elder Godsday Orubebe to derail the announcement of the results of the 2015 Presidential election. Where a civil war hero turned President ran from his own troops, a civilian President stood firm and defended due process and the rule of law. It is all about character.