Nigeria’s external debt service is projected to rise to $5.2bn this year, highlighting growing pressure on public finances despite ongoing economic reforms, Fitch Ratings has said.

The credit rating agency disclosed this in its latest rating action commentary published on Friday, in which it upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a stable outlook.

According to the report, government external debt service will increase from $4.7bn in 2024 to $5.2bn in 2025.

This includes $4.5bn in amortisation payments and a $1.1bn Eurobond repayment due in November. 

Fitch noted, “Government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to $5.2bn in 2025 (with $4.5bn of amortisations, including a $1.1bn Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from $4.7bn in 2024, and fall to $3.5bn in 2026.”

The agency also cited a minor delay in the payment of a Eurobond coupon due on March 28, 2025, as a reflection of persistent challenges in public finance management.

Although Nigeria’s external debt service remains within manageable levels, Fitch warned that high-interest costs, weak revenue performance, and limited fiscal space remain significant concerns.

Fitch said general government debt was expected to remain at about 51 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2026.

However, it expressed concern over the government’s revenue position, noting that interest payments will consume a substantial portion of income.

It stated, “We expect general government revenue-to-GDP to rise but to remain structurally low (averaging 13.3 per cent in 2025–2026), largely accounting for a high general government interest/revenue ratio, above 30 per cent, with federal government interest/revenue ratio of nearly 50 per cent.”

The agency observed that Nigeria’s gross reserves rose to $41bn at the end of 2024, before declining to $38bn due to debt service payments.

Despite this, Fitch expects the country’s reserves to average five months of current external payments over the medium term, above the median for similarly rated economies.

It added that recent policy reforms had contributed to increased foreign exchange inflows and better monetary stability, with inflation projected to average 22 per cent in 2025.

Fitch stated, “Net official FX inflows through the CBN and autonomous sources rose by about 89 per cent in Q4 2024. We expect continued formalisation of FX activity to support the exchange rate, although we anticipate modest depreciation in the short term.”

The agency commended the government’s commitment to economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the exchange rate, and tightening of monetary policy.

It noted that these steps had improved policy credibility and strengthened Nigeria’s ability to absorb shocks.

However, the agency warned that risks to Nigeria’s external and fiscal position remained, particularly if oil prices fall or policy implementation slows down.

Fitch’s latest assessment comes amid earlier concerns raised by JP Morgan, which projected that Nigeria’s current account could swing into a deficit if oil prices stay low for a prolonged period, potentially pushing the naira beyond N1,700 per dollar.

Despite these challenges, Fitch maintained a stable outlook for the country, saying the reforms had begun to yield results.

The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria expended a total of $5.47bn on external debt servicing between January 2024 and February 2025, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Also, Nigeria spent a total of N13.12 tn on debt servicing in 2024, representing a 68 per cent increase from the N7.8 tn recorded in the previous year, according to an analysis of data from the Debt Management Office.

The PUNCH observed that the debt servicing costs recorded in 2024 surpassed the budgeted allocation of N12.3tn for the year.

The higher-than-expected expenditure highlights the increasing pressure of debt obligations on the nation’s fiscal sustainability.

For the 2025 budget, the Federal Government has earmarked N16tn for debt servicing, reflecting the government’s anticipation of continued debt-related expenses.

This development comes amid rising borrowing costs and an increasing debt burden, putting pressure on the country’s fiscal position.

The Presidency has observed, with dismay, the increasing number of billboards in some cities promoting the 2027 campaign for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Worth noting is that some of these billboards with pictures of the President and his wife, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, emblazoned on them are springing up in Abuja and Kano in particular.

While President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima greatly appreciate their teeming and loyal supporters across the country for their enthusiasm and continuing support, the two leaders do not support any campaign that breaches the laws of the land.

The electoral law that guides the conduct of elections and political campaigns forbids any form of campaign for the 2027 general elections. Premature campaigning can undermine the integrity of the electoral process and create unfair advantages. As law-abiding leaders, President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima do not support any action that undermines our institutions and the electoral process.

Until the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) sets the timetable for the 2027 elections, the President has not endorsed or authorised anyone or any group to mount a 2027 campaign for him through any media channel—be it Out-of-Home, print, digital, radio, or television.

Therefore, we urgently call on individuals and groups funding this 2027 political campaign through the ongoing deployment of materials on billboards nationwide to cease immediately.

President Tinubu and his deputy are fully committed to delivering the ongoing task of nation-building they have set for themselves. This commitment is evident in their focus on economic revitalisation, human capital development, infrastructural renewal, social investment, and national security.

When INEC signals that the processes for the 2027 elections can start, President Tinubu will duly inform Nigerians of his plans.

Bayo Onanuga

Special Adviser to the President,

(Information & Strategy)

President Bola Tinubu has directed relevant education regulatory bodies to intensify efforts in clamping down on illegal tertiary institutions operating across Nigeria.

Speaking at the 14th convocation of the National Open University of Nigeria in Abuja on Saturday, the President ordered the National Universities Commission, the National Board for Technical Education, and other agencies to take decisive action against what he described as “certificate millers” undermining the credibility of the education sector.

Tinubu, who was represented by the Director of University Education at the Federal Ministry of Education, Rakiya Ilyasu, warned that the integrity of the academic system must not be compromised.

“At this juncture, it has become imperative to reiterate that this administration remains committed to strengthening the integration of all agencies involved in the administration of education to enhance efficiency and quality,” the President said.

He added, “The National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB), the National Universities Commission (NUC), the National Board for Technical Education (NBTE) and the National Commission for Colleges of Education (NCCE) are working in alignment to improve the quality of education and ensure that cases of forgery and unrecognised institutions both within and outside the country have no place in our education ecosystem.

“I therefore charge the heads of these agencies to remain steadfast in upholding government’s resolution to safeguard our education sector from quack and fake institutions as the integrity of our academic system must not be compromised and that the activities of certificate millers are checked and put to a stop permanently.”

At the convocation, 51 inmates from correctional centres across the country graduated from NOUN, including 41 undergraduates and 10 postgraduates.

The event also featured the conferment of honorary degrees on the President of the African Development Bank Group, Dr Akinwumi Adesina, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abbas Tajudeen.

Tinubu further tasked NOUN to lead the country’s transition into a digitally skilled economy, urging the university to embrace full online learning in line with its Open and Distance Learning model.

[Punch]

Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has urged the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas “to immediately withdraw the repressive bill for an act to amend the Nigeria Data Protection Act 2023, which seeks to regulate the activities of bloggers operating within the ‘territorial boundaries of Nigeria.’”

SERAP urged Mr Akpabio and Mr Abbas “to ensure that any amendment to the Nigeria Data Protection Act promotes and protects the rights of bloggers and other journalists and does not undermine the fundamental human rights of Nigerians.”

SERAP also urged Mr Akpabio and Mr Abbas “to end the imposition of unnecessary restrictions on the rights of Nigerians online and Internet-based content.”

There is currently a bill titled “A Bill for an Act to Amend the Nigeria Data Protection Act, 2023, to Mandate the Establishment of Physical Offices within the Territorial Boundaries of the Federal Republic of Nigeria by Social Media Platforms and for Related Matters” (the “bill”).

The bill among others seeks to regulate bloggers including by requiring all bloggers to register local offices and join recognised national association for bloggers. The bill has passed its first and second reading in the Senate.

In the letter dated 12 April 2025 and signed by SERAP deputy director Kolawole Oluwadare, the organisation said: “This bill is a blatant attempt to bring back and fast-track the obnoxious and widely rejected social media bill by the back-door.” 

SERAP said, “If passed, the bill would also be used to ban major social media platforms—including Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, WhatsApp, YouTube, TikTok, and independent bloggers if they ‘continuously fail to establish/register and maintain physical offices in Nigeria for a period of 30 days.’”

The letter, read in part: “Lawmakers should not become arbiters of truth in the public and political domain. Regulating the activities of bloggers and forcing them to associate would have a significant chilling effect on freedom of expression and lead to censorship or restraint.”

“The bill may also be used to block access of Nigerians to social media platforms. Blocking access to social media platforms is a flagrant violation of fundamental rights.”

“In addition to infringing on Nigerians’ right to access to information and digital technology, the proposed bill would also severely hamper business operations in the country, as many are reliant on foreign tools, services and technologies for their operations, as well as other sectors that rely on online information.”

“The bill would force international tech companies out of the Nigerian information landscape by requiring them to establish/register and maintain physical offices in the country. It would violate the requirement that the right to freedom of expression applies ‘regardless of frontiers.’”

“Should the National Assembly and its leadership fail to withdraw the bill to regulate the activities of bloggers, and should any such bill be assented to by President Bola Tinubu, SERAP would consider appropriate legal action to challenge the legality of any such law and ensure it is never implemented in the public interest.”

“The regulation of bloggers may be used to muzzle any dissenting voice and to silence any form of criticism or negative opinion on the policies and practices of the ruling party or the Government.”

“Authorities may also use the proposed regulation as a pretext to punish bloggers solely for the peaceful exercise of their human rights.”

“The bill seems to be directed at bloggers living in Nigeria and elsewhere, with severe adverse effects on the freedom of expression of a very wide range of individuals.”

“The proposed amendment to the Nigeria Data Protection Act, 2023 fails to meet the requirements of the Nigerian Constitution 1999 [as amended] and international human rights treaties to which the country is a state party.”

“The amendment, if passed would adversely affect unregistered bloggers operating ‘within the territorial boundaries of Nigeria.’”

“The proposed amendment may also be used to violate the rights to privacy, freedom of peaceful assembly and of association as protected by the Nigerian Constitution 1999 [as amended] and international human rights standards.”

“The proposed amendment is entirely inconsistent and incompatible with Nigeria’s obligations to respect and ensure the effective realisation of the right to freedom of opinion and expression. The amendment would disproportionality suppress a wide range of expressive conduct essential to a democratic society.”

“The bill would pose major barriers and threats to any individuals, especially journalists, human rights defenders and civil society organisations who may be critical of the government, as well as stifle democracy and media freedom.”

“Mandatory regulation of journalism is incompatible with the right to freedom of expression. There is no legitimate reason why bloggers – or in fact members of the general public – should be subject to mandatory regulation or licensing to express themselves.”

“Blogging plays an invaluable role in the free flow of information. Bloggers should never be required to register with the government or other official agencies to blog.”

“The bill may also be used as a pretext to force bloggers to disclose their sources. The right to protect sources is a cornerstone of freedom of the press, without which sources may be deterred from assisting the press in informing the public on matters of public interest.”

“The Nigerian Constitution and human rights treaties which the country has ratified protect protects everyone’s right [including bloggers] to maintain an opinion without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas of all kinds, regardless of frontiers and through any media.”

“Nigerian authorities including the National Assembly have legal obligations to ensure an environment in which a diverse range of opinions and ideas can be freely and openly expressed and debated.”

“The requirement of necessity implies an assessment of the proportionality of restrictions, with the aim of ensuring that restrictions target a specific objective and do not unduly intrude upon the rights of targeted persons.”

“As noted in the 2005 Joint Declaration of the special rapporteurs on freedom of expression, ‘[n]o one should be required to register with or obtain permission from any public body to operate an Internet service provider, website, blog or other online information dissemination system, including Internet broadcasting.’”

“In their 2011 Joint Declaration on Freedom of Expression and the Internet, the four special mandates for the protection of freedom of expression highlighted that regulatory approaches in the telecommunications and broadcasting sectors cannot simply be transferred to the Internet.”