The defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State has heightened fears regarding the potential defection of other state governors from opposition parties. Long before Oborevwori left the PDP, signs that some opposition governors might follow suit had already emerged. From their utterances and body language, it was obvious that some of these governors were hobnobbing with the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC). Findings by Sunday Vanguard showed that there is a growing uncertainty in some states, particularly among party faithful, regarding their future in the opposition. This anxiety exists despite the denials by party officials who claim that there are no plans for defections.

The wave of defections from the PDP to the APC has raised significant concerns within opposition states. While some states exhibit signs of potential shifts, others maintain a firm stance against such moves. The varying responses underscore the complex and localised nature of Nigerian politics, where individual relationships, party dynamics, and regional considerations play pivotal roles in shaping political allegiances. Enugu: On Shaky Grounds Enugu State has been a stronghold of the PDP since the beginning of the Fourth Republic. However, there are now speculations that overtures have been made to Governor Peter Mbah to leave the PDP. It is well-known that the governor is a close ally of President Bola Tinubu, and Sunday Vanguard gathered that the presidency has been consistently wooing Mbah to join the APC.

As a result, the APC in Enugu State, which is the opposition, has continually praised the governor for his developmental strides in the state. However, the APC Chairman in the state, Ugo Agballa, is opposed to such a move. Sources suggest that Agballa and the party leadership have vowed to ensure that any alleged plan for Mbah to defect does not materialize. While the APC is making efforts to gain influence in the state, the opposition within Enugu State’s PDP remains strong, making it unclear whether the governor will take the plunge and abandon his current political affiliation.

Anambra: ‘APC Lacks Foundation’

In Anambra State, despite Governor Charles Soludo’s closeness to President Bola Tinubu, there is little concern over the possibility of defection. Soludo, who was elected under the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), has not shown any inclination toward defecting to the APC. Since coming to office in 2021, Soludo has maintained a positive relationship with the APGA leadership in the state. In fact, the governor recently dismissed the APC as a party without any significant foundation in Anambra, stating that it has never managed to secure even a single councillor in previous elections. According to Soludo, the APC has failed to make any significant impact in the state, citing their lack of electoral traction in both general and local government elections.

“Now, wind down to Anambra. In Anambra, APC doesn’t even have a councillor. Not even one. In all previous elections, they’ve never been able to get traction. Look at the last several elections— general elections and local government elections—not even 3–4% of the votes. You can’t put something on nothing, so to speak,” Soludo stated. Most stakeholders in the state do not believe the governor, who is seeking a second term, would defect. “There is no reason for that. APGA is not a party, but a movement that Ndigbo subscribe to. We are connected to the party in every reasonable way. Our governor is a principled person, who has paid his dues in respected fields. He should not be ranked alongside those defecting,” said Emma Udemezue, an APGA chieftain, when speaking with Sunday Vanguard.

Abia:

Defections Have No Impact The recent defections in Delta State seem unlikely to have any significant effect on the PDP in Abia State, for several reasons. Abia is not currently controlled by either the PDP or the APC, and the defections in Delta have little to no bearing on the political dynamics in Abia. For Governor Alex Otti, defection is far from being a priority. A PDP chieftain and aspirant for the party’s chairmanship in 2024, Chief Olugh Kalu, told Sunday Vanguard: “Every politics is local. Their defection happened in Delta and cannot have any effect in Abia because Abia is not Delta State.” Since the Labour Party (LP) took control of Abia in the 2023 elections, local residents have not shown much interest in the affairs of either the PDP or APC. Many former PDP stakeholders have already defected to the APC, and more are expected to follow before the 2027 elections. The people of Abia, for the most part, are more focused on the performance of Otti’s LP-led administration than on the shifting alliances of the traditional political parties. Despite internal leadership struggles within LP, which have persisted for several months, the governor’s governance is seen as a more pressing concern.

Osun:

Party Faithful Disturbed Long before the defection of Delta Governor Oborevwori, there had been speculations that Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State might leave the PDP for the APC. Party faithful in Osun are particularly concerned about the defections in Delta and the recent resignation of the lawmaker representing Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency at the House of Representatives, Mr. Oluwole Oke. Oke, a fifth-term lawmaker, had been at odds with the PDP leadership in Osun, leading to factionalism in his constituency. In a letter dated April 16, addressed to the Ward 7 Chairman of the party in Obokun Local Government Area, Oke stated that his decision to resign was made after consulting with his constituents. Although Oke did not explicitly state whether he would join another party, the speculation that he might join the ruling APC has further fueled the belief that Adeleke could be considering the same move.