For those conversant with the penetrating manoeuvrings of  President Bola Tinubu and his carefully chosen strategists to commandeer the six states of the South-South ahead of 2007, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori’s cataclysmic wreck of the  People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ship in Delta State, and boarding the All Progressives Congress (APC) yacht on Wednesday was stroke of a genius.

The PDP controls four states of the South-South region up to last Wednesday when Oborevwori, joined by his predecessor, and vice-presidential candidate in the last presidential election, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, and other leaders reduced it to three apiece with the APC.

The PDP-controlled states in the region presently are Bayelsa, Rivers and Akwa Ibom states while the APC presides over Edo, Cross Rivers and now, Delta State.

Tinubu started the South-South “capture” last year with Edo when he halted the immediate past governor of the state, Mr. Godwin Obaseki, from fulfilling his desire to crown a PDP successor, Dr. Asue Ighodalo.

A former governor of the state and senator representing Edo North, Adams Oshiomhole, who had scores to settle with his erstwhile friend, Obaseki, supervised the takeover Edo arrangement.

Obaseki, who fell out with Oshiomhole in his first tenure, dumped the APC for the PDP when Oshiomhole, as then National Chairman of the APC, denied him a second-term ticket.

He triumphed and led the PDP to take over Edo from the APC in 2020 with the then sitting president, Muhammadu Buhari, not interfering in the electoral process.

But Tinubu was not prepared to allow such in 2024.

He authorized the Oshiomhole–led team to terminate the Obaseki plan.

From the security to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) officials, instructions were reportedly passed from above.

Obaseki cried blue murder after the election, shouting that the PDP won, but in the court, it became clearer to him that the power to decide what happens lies somewhere.

Governor Oborevwori, Senator Okowa, and other PDP leaders were involved with Obaseki in the fierce political combat to see the PDP retain Edo, and what ensued was clear to them.

APC leaders bragged about the plot before the election, and, according to the grand design, Delta is the next to go.

Political lesson

 A close associate of Tinubu and former governor of the state, Chief James Ibori, who Okowa, as governor, sidelined in his choice of Oborevwori as successor, was more than ready to teach Okowa a political lesson.

Ibori’s daughter, Hon Erhiatake Suenu-Ibori, representing the Ethiope Federal Constituency, dumped the PDP in Delta and joined the APC last year.

Ibori did not officially announce his exit from the PDP, but his sympathy lies more with the APC since Okowa chose Oborevwori over his candidate, David Edevbie.

Oborevwori and Okowa unmistakably understood what Tinubu would do in 2027 if they refused his plot to commandeer Delta State.

The president had discussed separately with Oborevwori, other South-South and South-East PDP governors, and made his propositions on 2027 known to them.

Most of the PDP first term governors agreed to work for the president in 2027 while Tinubu also helps to guarantee their re-election.

Deal

 The arrangement later changed from supporting the president as PDP governor but abandoning the PDP for the APC for a foolproof deal.

Many PDP political strategists in Delta State struck down on the plan when they heard about it.

The governor and PDP leadership in the state denied media reports linking him to a plan to defect to the APC.

But since December or thereabouts, last year, Oborevwori, Okowa and their inner circle have reviewed and re-appraised the proposal, and the inescapable conclusion was that with their party (PDP) in tatters, no thanks to the former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, who sees the presidential ticket as his life entitlement, the PDP stands no chance against Tinubu in 2027.

Mobilizing the PDP stakeholders to wreck the party in the state was an uphill task, but the actuality that whether they agree or not, the APC would still take over the state in 2027, made the majority to bow to pressure. 

The rest is history as the resolution to bury the PDP in Delta State glided with an undersized opposition last Wednesday at an expanded meeting in the Government House, Asaba.

  Fear

 However, there is a palpable fear that the APC strategists cleverly lured Oborevwori and Okowa into their fold and destroyed the PDP, and would uncover their real plan in the party’s primary for the 2027 governorship election.

Actually, sources told Sunday Vanguard that there was no deal on the ground with the APC leadership detailing who gets what under the new arrangement as it naturally should be because the governor, by the virtue of his position, should be the leader of his new party in Delta.

“But let us assume that the governor will naturally assume the leadership of the APC in the state, what happens to his supporters. How will they be accommodated in the new scheme of things?” one of the sources said.

“Now don’t forget that there are big politicians in the APC that the governor and his people are coming to meet in the party. 

“You have people like Senator Omo-Agege and Minister Festus Keyamo among others. 

“How will the interests of these politicians be married with those of Oborevwori and his teeming supporters?”

Sunday Vanguard learnt that barring last minute change of plans, negotiations on how to accommodate the governor’s supporters in the APC with the party’s leadership may begin this week.

Another issue that may prove contentious, according to sources, is how the Ibori camp may take the defection of Oborevwori and Okowa into the APC in Delta.

Recall that Ibori had related with the APC in Delta more than the PDP since the run-up to the 2023 elections when Okowa blocked his candidate (David Edevbie) from succeeding him on the platform of the PDP.

“Being a friend of President Tinubu, Ibori has, for some time now, associated more with the APC than the PDP. It is only that he has not officially defect to the APC”, a source said.

“Now, the question is, how will Ibori, Okowa and Oborevwori see eye to eye in the APC after this defection”.

Following the Oborevwori, Okowa and supporters defection to the APC, it was gathered that Ibori may be under pressure to return to active participation in the affairs of the PDP in Delta.

  Will Fubara Capitulate?

 As the gale of defections in Delta State blows, supporters of the suspended governor of Rivers State, Siminalayi Fubara, have become apprehensive over the possibility of his defection from the PDP to the APC.

In the wake of the political crisis in 2023, it was rumored that Fubara wanted to dump the PDP for the APC as a way of seeking presidential cover from the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Nyesom Wike, to escape impeachment threat.

But Wike’s strong collaborator, Chief Tony Okocha, became the caretaker committee chairman of the APC in Rivers State and did not look like he would grant the governor’s indulgences in the party.

Meanwhile, feelers from London, United Kingdom, where Tinubu and Fubara ostensibly met in a closed-door meeting for close to four hours, indicate that both men discussed the probability of curbing the six-month duration of the emergency rule in Rivers.

Tinubu, in a desperate and predisposed move to douse the political tension in Rivers, declared a state of emergency on March 18, as the 27-man House of Assembly members loyal to the FCT minister and Fubara’s estranged political godfather, Wike, escalated the plot to impeach the governor.

The declaration led to the undemocratic suspension of Fubara, his deputy, Prof. Ngozi Ordu, and the entire House of Assembly.

Barely 24 hours later, Tinubu announced the appointment of Vice Admiral Ibok-Etteh Ibas (retd.) as the Sole Administrator of the state.

London pact

 Our source hinted that the meeting with Tinubu in London was at the behest of Fubara, who departed Nigeria for Frankfurt, Germany, en route to London last week to seal a pact with the president to save his political career.

According to a source, Fubara was allegedly given two conditions to facilitate his early return to power.

One of the conditions was for the governor to dump the PDP and join the APC, and if he must stay in the PDP, he must ensure that Tinubu garners 25 percent of the votes cast in 2027.

Rt. Hon. Evans Bipi, the director-general of Simplified Movement Worldwide (SMW), a grassroots political group of Fubara, responded that the story of the governor’s defection “is in the realm of speculation, and we cannot say anything categorical on that.”

Emeka Idika, media aide to Evans Bipi, said, “There is no official statement from the Presidency or the governor himself. Everything is a rumor, and we are unable to confirm this with certainty. However, we can assure you that we stand by the governor no matter what.

“We are there wherever he is. The governor’s grassroots political organization is called SIM. We are unable to deviate from the governor’s course. For him, that is our collective position”

.Eno indistinguishable

 Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State has been fraternizing with Tinubu and the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, since his assumption of office in 2023.

But before now, he used to assure Akwa Ibom people that his close relationship with the APC leaders was merely to get favour from the centre by attracting federal presence to the state, especially infrastructure, such as the construction of the Ibom Deep Sea port project. 

At a media briefing, last year, he had claimed that the people were misreading his body language by speculating that he was planning to dump the PDP for the APC.

However, Eno’s recent remarks on his unwavering support for Tinubu’s re-election bid have forced many observers of political happenings in the state, and ardent supporters of the PDP, to ponder if he was being truthful or merely trying to douse tension over his hobnobbing with the APC. 

The majority of Akwa Ibom people have come to conclude that Eno’s consorting with the APC leaders indicates that the APC was blackmailing him for reasons only known to him and his predecessor, Udom Emmanuel.

About two weeks ago, while flagging off the 65km Akwa Ibom section of the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway in the  Nsit Atai local government area,  the governor openly declared his support for the re-election of Tinubu in 2027.

His words: “Let me end by assuring our people-loving president that he will complete eight years because we will stand by him, and this is the truth. He cannot start this work and abandon it. Somebody else may not finish it. 

“Our prayer is to pray for Mr President for good health to complete what he has started, and not abandon the East-West Road”.

Also while addressing attendees at the ‘Easter Evening of Hymns’ held Easter Monday at the International Christian Worship Centre, Uyo, Eno had asserted, “Tonight, as a servant of God that God has given the privilege to serve Akwa Ibom as governor, I want to say that I have fulfilled my ministry of reconciliation that God laid in my hands for Akwa Ibom.

“While I was campaigning, I said by the grace of God, we will bring all of us as Akwa Ibomites under one roof. Tonight, that dream is fulfilled. We have heard the PDP choir sing here tonight.