If politicians in the opposition camps truly dream of a replay of 2015 election during which a ruling party was dislodged, developments within their ranks, lately, suggest that such aspiration may remain a tall order, SEYE OLUMIDE and ONYEDIKA AGBEDO, write.

One year, 10 months and a day to the February 20, 2027 national elections, there are strong indications that the desire of the opposition to wrestle power from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may end up as a mirage. Unlike the opposition parties that struck a merger deal that eventually birthed the APC on February 6, 2013 (more than two years before the March 28, 2015 presidential and National Assembly elections), and were able to organise and defeat the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the poll, the current crop of opposition parties appears to be “full of sound and fury signifying nothing.” Their leaders, apparently narcissistic about their political ambitions, are glaringly working at cross purposes, a development that would only hand President Bola Ahmed Tinubu a second term in office on a platter if they fail to quickly retrace their steps and begin to pull ideas and resources together towards their often-mouthed ambition to send the APC parking from Aso Rock in 2027.

Addressing a press conference on March 20, this year, to condemn the declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State by President Tinubu, former vice president Atiku Abubarkar, a chieftain of the PDP, announced the formation of a coalition against Tinubu and his party ahead of the 2027 elections. Opposition figures that attended the press conference included former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal; former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el-Rufai, who defected from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) recently; National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP), Peter Ahmeh, Convener of the Alternative, Segun Showunmi; Tanko Yinusa, who represented Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, Mr. Peter Obi, and former national vice chairman, APC, North West, Dr. Salihu Lukman, among others.

Since then, there has been no serious move known to the public towards fortifying the so-called coalition. What has come to public glare, instead, are staccato voices from the opposition camps that paint a picture of disarray and lack of unity of purpose.

For instance, governors elected on the platform of the major opposition party in the country, the PDP, after a meeting in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, last Monday, ruled out the party’s involvement in any coalition or merger ahead of the 2027 elections.

The governors declared that any political party or individual seeking a bigger platform is free to join the PDP, insisting that a party with 12 governors and solid structure could not take itself into a merger with parties of lesser and or weaker structures.

Reading a communiqué on behalf of his colleagues at the end of the meeting, the Chairman of PDP Governors’ Forum and Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, said: “Noting the nationwide speculations about a possible merger of political parties, groups and/or associations, the Forum resolved that the PDP will not join any coalition or merger.

“However, the PDP as a major opposition party welcomes any party, persons or groups that are willing to join it with a view to wrestling power and enthroning good leadership in 2027.”

A day after the meeting, Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, who hosted it, appeared on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme to buttress that Atiku’s coalition motive was unknown to PDP.

The governor said: “We didn’t just wake up and say me as XYZ in the party just draw the party into any arrangements when the party organs do not have clue on what you are doing.

“They have no clue of what is in this coalition. They also have no clue whether this is personal or whether you are doing this in the best interest of the party and the people of Nigeria. Those are critical.

“There must be a process. If the managers of the party, the organs of the party are going into a merger or coalition, there’s need for the managers of the party to know.

“But, if you have individuals, it is still within their right to associate with whoever they want to associate with. However, as a party, we haven’t gotten there. Our first assignment is to put the party on a sound pedestal.
“Politics is a game of interest. You must be interested; you must have alignment with the wider organs of your party before you go out to meet other people.”

Last Tuesday, the South-South PDP Youth Amalgamation also threw its weight behind the PDP Governors’ Forum. The group condemned the reported political alliance between Atiku and el-Rufai, describing it as a desperate move by political jobbers to regain lost relevance.

In a statement by its convener, John Albert Clarkson, the group dismissed the alliance as a “last-ditch effort” by two political figures desperate to remain relevant in an evolving political landscape that increasingly rejects their brand of politics.

Clarkson accused both Atiku and el-Rufai of lacking political credibility and consistency, alleging that their careers have been defined by broken promises, opportunism, and contradictions.

He particularly criticised Atiku’s frequent defection between parties in pursuit of power, and el-Rufai’s controversial tenure as governor despite his reformist posture.

The youth group expressed full support for the stance of the PDP Governors’ Forum for rejecting what it called an “ill-conceived coalition.” Reiterating its faith in the PDP’s capacity to lead the country, the group said: “The PDP, under the stewardship of principled leaders, is better positioned to guide Nigeria towards genuine development. We urge all Nigerians to unite under the banner of the PDP and reject political opportunism in favour of purposeful leadership.”

On the same day, at the flag-off of the Akwa Ibom segment of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway project, Akwa Ibom State Governor, Umo Eno, expressed full support for the Tinubu administration, declaring that the President would complete two terms in office.

Eno, who was elected on the platform of the PDP, while speaking at the event, said: “Let me end by assuring our president, our people-loving president, that he will complete eight years because we are going to stand by him.

“And this is the truth. He cannot start this work and abandon it. Somebody else may not finish it.
“Bible says who is this mountain that is standing before Zerubbabel? The hand that has started this work that hand shall do what? Shall complete it!

“Our prayer for Mr. President is good health to finish the work that he has started and commission this work, so that this work will not be abandoned.

“It will not be like the East-West Road. This one will be finished, and the hand that has started it will finish it in Jesus’ name.”

Meanwhile, leader of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and its presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, Prince Adewole Adebayo, whose party is being touted as the likely platform to be adopted by the coalition, recently urged Nigerians to watch the motives of defecting politicians.

Adebayo, who has become one of the strong voices against the Tinubu administration in the country, appears not to be comfortable with the gale of defections to his party.

Speaking in a recent interview, he said: “If you listen to the narrative of those who are changing parties, it suggests that they are moving for things that affect them personally, not really because of things that affect the people.

“There may be others who are moving quietly, who have not expressed the purpose and the reason they are moving. But those who have given interviews, spoken extensively and given background to why they are changing positions, all boil down to personal ambition, personal grievances, some unrealised promises and all of that. So, it’s a bit on the personal side.”

Surprisingly, Atiku does not see these developments as a setback but rather as a call to wider consultations. Reacting particularly to the stance of the PDP governors through a statement by his spokesman, Paul Ibe, on Tuesday, he noted: “This is not a setback. The project continues. It’s a Nigerian project with Nigerians at its heart. It’s difficult to derail something when the people have taken ownership of it.”

A chieftain of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Chief Ralph Uwazurike, believes that it may be too early to dismiss the coalition arrangement. He, however, pointed out that the opposition parties are not showing enough courage and determination to defeat the ruling party.

On his part, the National Vice Chairman Southwest of the PDP, Kamorudeen Ajisafe, said the party is not in any disarray as some people are thinking. “Whatever the governors and or anybody, including Atiku and others are saying is still subject to what the National Executive Council of the party will come up with after its convention,” he noted.

A former presidential candidate, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, said the opposition has been whipping up ethnic sentiments as one of the factors they plan to use to oust the incumbent in 2027.

While noting that the strategy would not work, he emphasised the need for the opposition parties to articulate their points appropriately if they really want to get the incumbent president out in 2027.

Meanwhile, a political group, Nigeria Renaissance Group (NRG), which is affiliated to the Labour Party (LP), has challenged the leadership of the opposition parties to put their houses in order. The group particularly charged the LP to put its home in order for a good showing at the polls in 2027.

In a statement signed by his Convener, Comrade Isa Yakubu and Secretary, Mr. Tunde Isaac, the group decried the high level of indiscipline within the party despite its potential.

According to the NRG, this was a major drawback for the party in the 2023 general election, as indiscipline negatively impacted its chances at the polls. The group added: “Unfortunately, there were no sanctions to nip the scenario in the bud, which created a negative image in the eyes of the voting public before the elections.

“Indeed, many started querying whether the once promising party would be able to meet the yearnings of Nigerians with the rancour within the system should the party win elections. Recall that some officials, including the former national publicity secretary, Mr. Abayomi Arabambi, endorsed candidates of other political parties.

“The same Arabambi even went to court to testify against elected members of the party including the House of Representatives member representing Amuwo Odofin, Olawande George and even our candidate in Oshodi Isolo, Oke Joe.
“If these are not anti-party activities, we do not know what to call the several attempts to kill the party. Recall that the same individuals through the Lamidu Apampa faction escalated the act to the election petition tribunal and caused the party so much pain.

“The world, including Peter Obi’s former spokesman, Kenneth Okonkwo, watched in amazement as these people did their best to bring down the party. Unfortunately, Arabambi in particular was seen with our party chairman, Julius Abure, at different occasions while the crisis was on.

“Going by the outcome of our last convention, he had ceased to be our publicity secretary as a replacement had since taken his place. Going forward, we wish to advise the party to start a fresh process of rebuilding by reaching out to LP groups with large numbers across the country, especially Lagos States towards bragging about a stronger, vibrant and formidable party.

“Machinery should be put in motion to invite select leaders of the groups to a meeting to chart a way forward for the LP. The party must also, as a matter of urgency, build a strong disciplinary machinery that would ensure sanctions on erring members to build public confidence.”

Amid the confusing drumbeats from the opposition camps, the ruling party has been harvesting from their folds. For instance, last Saturday, members of the Delta Unity Group, a socio-political organisation from the PDP officially defected to the APC. They were led by Senator Ned Nwoko, representing Delta North Senatorial District in the National Assembly, who dumped the PDP on February 5, this year, “due to the deep divisions and factionalisation within the party.”

Speaking at the rally, Nwoko alleged that Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, was planning to dump the PDP for the APC, a claim the governor quickly refuted.

And last Tuesday, the National Chairman of the APC, Alhaji Abdullahi Ganduje, hinted that the leader of the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) leader and former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, would join the ruling party soon. He said: “The NNPP is dead. And it will soon be buried very, very soon. I’m hoping that where we will put the dead body, the coffin, has already been constructed.

“What remains now is to dig the grave. And already they are digging the grave very, very soon. Even like that, the so-called NNPP national leader, he too says after losing everyone, he wants to come back to us, we will welcome him, because he’s coming back home.”

Ganduje, who spoke in Abuja during a courtesy visit by the Tinubu Support Group to the APC national secretariat, also declared that the so-called coalition against Tinubu ahead of 2027 would soon fall apart, with its leaders eventually returning to the APC.

This was as erstwhile members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), who are among the founding members of the APC, last Wednesday, affirmed their continued membership of APC. It could be recalled that not long after el-Rufai defected to the SDP, words started making the rounds that loyalists of former president Muhammadu Buhari were on the verge of defecting from the ruling party.

But rising from a special meeting in Abuja, the core members of the CPC bloc in APC announced that they were not part of any move to quit the ruling party or join any coalition against President Bola Tinubu and APC.

In a seven-point communiqué released to journalists, the members declared: “Recent misleading narratives suggesting a defection or disaffection among CPC stakeholders are false, mischievous and should be ignored. We remain an integral part of the APC and are fully aligned with its leadership and vision.”

They announced their support for Tinubu, assuring him that “the CPC family remains a vital pillar of the APC and will continue to play a responsible role in its growth and the progress of Nigeria.

“We wish to state categorically that we have neither left the APC nor do we intend to leave. The CPC bloc remains one of the legacy foundations of the APC, and we are resolute in our commitment to the party and its progressive ideals,” they added.

Signatories to the communiqué include Senators Umaru Al-Makura, Ibrahim Musa and Mustafa Salihu, as well as Dr Nasiru Argungu, Dr Dominic Alancha, Aminu Masari, Adamu Adamu, Farouk Aliyu, AlmajiriGeidam, Waziri Bulama and Ayuba Balami.

Others are Osita Okechukwu, Okoi Obono-Obla, Lucy Ajayi, Bala Jibrin, Uche Ufearoh, Yusuf Salihu, Abubakar Maikudi, Mutallib Badmus, Muhammed Datti, Muhammed Etsu, Jerry Johnson and Alkali Ajikolo.

These are pointers that the ruling party is not resting on its oars, but is also working round the clock to reinforce its grip on power. Time will determine whether its strategies would work or whether the opposition would have its way.