After 58 days, the two chambers of the National Assembly concluded legislative work on the 2025 budget. They passed a unified appropriation bill of N54.99 trillion. This is a record on many levels. The most obvious is that, in Naira terms, the passed budget is our highest so far—about twice the size of the N28.77 trillion appropriated as the main budget for 2024. The 2025 budget has had quite an odyssey within two months of being: the initial proposal that President Bola Tinubu tabled before the parliament on 18^th December 2024 was N49.74 trillion, which he bumped to N54.2 trillion via a letter to the National Assembly on February 5^th; the legislators wholly and swiftly agreed to the president’s request but added N700 billion when they passed the budget a week later, bringing the approved expenditure to the record N54.99 trillion. 

My intervention today will not be on the full budget. The disaggregated details are not yet publicly available and the appropriation bill is yet to be signed by the president. I will confine myself to some of the issues that the budget process has thrown up and to some of the headline figures that I have gleaned from media reports.

Let’s start with some of the numbers. As reported widely in the media, the N54.99 trillion expenditure is allocated as follows: N3.65 trillion to Statutory Transfers; N13.06 trillion to Recurrent (non-debt) Expenditure; N14.32 trillion to Debt Service; and N23.96 trillion to Capital Expenditure. There are a few things to unpack here.

On a positive note, the legislators allocated N300 billion to address the expected shortfall to our health sector from the pause of aid by the US government. This is part of the N700 billion that the parliamentarians added to the amended proposal from the president. Those who took the initiative to make this emergency provision should be commended. Health is critical. On a related note, we should be proactive in cutting our dependence on other countries as a way of reducing our vulnerabilities and increasing our leverage in the unfolding world order. That N300 billion is just 0.55% of the approved budget, an indication that Nigeria can easily wean itself off aid and insulate itself from the blackmail/arm-twisting that sometimes goes with it.

It is noteworthy that there are some significant differences in the aggregate figures in the version submitted by the executive and the version passed by the parliament (even after accounting for the addition by both parties). The president proposed N14.85 trillion as capital expenditure, but the legislators allocated N23.96 trillion to the same expenditure category. This is N9.11 trillion extra, an increase of 61%. This also means that capital budget (rather than debt service) now has the highest allocation, accounting for 43.57% of the approved total expenditure for 2025.

On the surface, this should be a good development: it could be read to mean that critical infrastructure is being prioritised. It is also being spun as such (even when not everything under capital is actually infrastructure or that everything termed infrastructure is really critical). But it appears something doesn’t add up. Even if we assume that the entire N5.23 trillion added by both the president (N4.53 trillion) and the legislators (N700 billion) goes entirely to capital appropriation, that should only take capital to N20.08 trillion. There is still a gap of N3.88 trillion to take the capital budget to N23.96 trillion. Most likely the difference is from the reduction from other expenditure heads, and that may have negative implications somewhere. The full budget will address this mystery.

However, it is possible that this is part of the customary optical game: let it appear as if we are allocating a lot to capital expenditure as opposed to awkward/embarrassing budget heads like debt service. But trumpeting that capital has the highest allocation is a game of self-deceit. Budgets are traditionally broken into two components: recurrent and capital. If that metric is adopted, capital even at 44% is still in the shadows of recurrent. Also, it is more useful to note that historically capital budget performs poorly in terms of actual release and utilisation (and this is not because of the convenient excuse of constraints imposed by the public procurement process).

In its original proposal of N49.74 trillion, the executive allocated N4.44 trillion to statutory transfers and N16.33 trillion to debt service. But in the approved budget of N54.99 trillion, the legislators reduced statutory transfers to N3.65 trillion and debt service to N14.32 trillion. As the name indicates, statutory transfers are statutory, sort of a first-line charge. It will be interesting to see where the legislators saw about N800 billion that they could shave off (will be interesting if it is from their own allocation). Debt service is seen as hard expenditure, something you need to do except you want to be in trouble. It comprises mainly the principal of and the interests on loans that fall due plus a little aside for the sinking fund. It will be good to know how the legislators are able to save the country more than N2 trillion in debt service. This can’t be from taking out the sinking fund (which was just N430.27 billion). It will be good to know what the trade-offs and the implications of the reduced debt service are, if any. Or was the initial debt service overestimated?

The legislators said the fiscal deficit in the approved 2025 budget will be N13.08 trillion. This was the same figure the president had proposed. I trawled the media, without success, for the projected revenue in the approved budget. But we can extrapolate that the projected revenue is N41.91 trillion since we know the total approved expenditure (N54.99 trillion) and the approved deficit (N13.08 trillion). We can have a separate discussion about how realistic this is, given how revenue projection has always underperformed. We may also think about what actual revenue shortfall may do to the eventual deficit, and how that is likely to further lock us into the vicious cycle of more debt and higher provisioning for debt service. We can deal with that in the future. In the meantime, there is also something that doesn’t add up here. The initial revenue projection by the president was N36.35 trillion and he requested that N4.53 trillion be added to the revenue column, which gives a total of N40.88 trillion. It seems that what the president projected as revenue (based on what is in the public domain) is N1.03 trillion less than what the legislators approved as projected revenue. A shortfall of N1 trillion can’t be from rounded figures. Maybe the full budget will provide illumination.

However, there is a more interesting dimension on the deficit issue: deficit-to-GDP. In his speech on 18^th December 2024, the president stated that the N13.08 trillion envisaged as deficit would constitute 3.89% of Nigeria’s GDP, which is still higher than the 3% bar set in the Fiscal Responsibility Act but significantly better than the ratio for preceding years. As stated earlier, the legislators agreed with the president on the amount of the budget deficit (N13.08 trillion) but put the deficit as 1.52% of the GDP. This is a material difference. It is either there is a mistake somewhere or the legislators are using a different GDP figure. If N13.08 trillion is 1.52% of GDP, that means Nigeria’s GDP is N860.53 trillion. That will be quite a leap.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s nominal GDP was N234.43 trillion in 2023. The sum of the GDP figures for Q1 to Q3 of 2024 is N196.26 trillion, which means full-year GDP at best will be below N300 trillion (in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook, IMF estimated N302.18 trillion as Nigeria’s GDP for 2024). It is possible the legislators have been briefed about the rebased GDP numbers and they are using that as a basis for their computation even when the rebased GDP is yet to be officially released. Assuming this is the case and putting aside the propriety of such an approach, this implies a tripling of Nigeria’s GDP merely on account of rebasing. This will be quite something. And when such is applied to the metrics that government officials fancy (debt-to-GDP, deficit-to-GDP), it is likely to look like a clumsy walk to a predetermined answer.  

While the legislators were about concluding the process of passing the 2025 budget, the president sent them what could be classified as an amendment or a supplement to the budget proposal. He did it via a letter, which was read by the presiding officers of both chambers. The president stated the total extra revenue and the global sources (N1.21 trillion from Customs; N1.49 trillion from FIRS; and N1.82 trillion from Government Owned Enterprises—GOEs), and he proposed how they should be allocated, including N1 trillion to the solid mineral sector, N1.5 trillion for the recapitalisation of the Bank of Agriculture, N500 billion for the recapitalisation of the Bank of Industry (BOI) and significant sums to key infrastructure projects and security institutions. The president said this was to demonstrate his administration’s commitment to “inclusive growth and security.” It is difficult to argue against the need for such.

But there are a few issues. The first issue is about process, and it is in two parts. The first part was reflected in the interesting exchange between Hon. Benjamin Kalu (Deputy Speaker and presiding officer on the day the president’s request was read in the House of Representatives), and Hon. Kingsley Chinda (the House Minority Leader). Hon. Chinda stated that it was improper for a budget from the executive to be read by a legislator but Hon. Kalu maintained otherwise, and overruled the opposition leader.

The exchange could pass for the usual face-off between the ruling party and the opposition. This is mostly done for the camera, and is normally resolved in favour of the majority (with the minority merely allowed to have its say). But the exchange strikes at a core procedural issue around presentation of budgets, including additions, supplements and virements, the level of details such requests should contain (lumpsum versus detailed breakdown) and the amount of time needed to study and process them. In the public sector, both substance and process are important. In fact, government is largely about process.

The second issue is about the proper order of things. The budget presentation is usually preceded by the approval of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)/Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP). The MTEF contains the key assumptions and the broad outlines for the proposed budget. But assumptions and outlooks can change. That is why amendment to the MTEF is allowed. After the president requested for an increase in the 2025 expenditure, the legislators should have insisted for the MTEF to be presented again and should have given the amendment expedited treatment. Amending the MTEF after passing the budget does not seem to pass the smell test. Again, process, process, process.  

The request by the president brings to fore the curious case of the changing allocations to the solid minerals sector in this budget cycle. The president made a passionate case for extra N1 trillion for the sector, as many others in and out of government routinely do. My sense is that many of us miss the memo about how the solid minerals sector is structured differently from the oil and gas sector. State participation is limited to licensing and regulation and the revenue streams are restricted to fees, royalty, taxes and maybe fines, all of which are mostly paltry. We need to open up the sector and make it more attractive to serious players and incentivise processing/value-addition (what industry players term fancifully as beneficiation). That will be good for jobs, for taxes and for increased contributions to GDP. But we need to make peace with the fact that solid mineral is not going to be our big-ticket revenue stream.

Ploughing N1 trillion (almost 2% of the entire budget) into that sector in one year does not look like optimal resource allocation to me. I may be wrong. But the real point is the dramatic shifts in the allocation to the sector in the 2025 budget. It was reported that the Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Mr. Dele Alake, complained openly to the joint committee of the National Assembly that his ministry had requested for N531 billion for capital expenditure for the year but was allocated only N9.9 billion in the proposed budget.

“This is unacceptable, as it will hinder any significant investment in exploration,” Alake said. “We seek the support of the National Assembly for a radical upward review of the budget.” This is as bad a look as it can get, as those on the executive side have ample opportunities to make their case, especially during bilateral budget defence with the Budget Office and the Ministry of Budget and National Planning. In any case, the joint committee, with dramatic flair, rejected the budget proposed for the ministry by the executive.

The Senate Committee later recommended an increase in the capital budget of the ministry from N9.9 billion to N539 billion. This is mind-blowing. A legislative committee would contemplate increasing the proposed capital budget of a ministry by more than half a trillion Naira or by more than 5000%. It may be of interest that the capital allocation for the ministry in the 2024 Appropriation Act was N26.9 billion. Even if there is a compelling case for a major increase, did anyone bother about the absorptive capacity for a 20-fold hike?

I have worked in both the legislative and executive arms of government at the federal level, and I have been tracking budgets for a while. If I tell you I have seen anything like this before, I will be lying. But more was to come. The president further upped the ante: in his 5^th February letter, he assigned N1 trillion to the solid minerals sector “to support economic diversification by unlocking the potential of Nigeria’s vast solid mineral resources, which remain an untapped revenue stream and a vital pillar of non-oil growth.”

Another issue is that there is a serious discussion that we need to have about the best way to use additional revenues. It is not immediately clear whether the N4.53 trillion that the president asked to be allocated to solid minerals and other areas is excess revenue from last year or projected extra revenue for this year. Whatever it is, it might be more prudent to use any extra revenue to reduce budget deficit than to increase immediate expenditure. This is because the deficit we kept has to be funded, and from borrowing, which would have to be paid and with interests. This, in turn, will increase future deficits and the amount to allocate to debt service. We cannot borrow our way out of this hole, and it is unconscionable to keep kicking the can down the road and, worse, to be mortgaging the future of the next generation. We desperately need to rein in deficits and borrowing. We need fiscal consolidation like yesterday.

The last issue I want to raise is the dip in disclosure in certain areas. A few weeks ago, I highlighted some notable omissions and incongruities in the proposed 2025 budget. No coherent answers have been provided. One omission that still sticks out for me is the non-disclosure of the budget of the GOEs. It is conceivable that the legislators received the proposed budgets of the GOEs and did a thorough job in scrutinising them. But there is no budget that should be obscured from public view. If the budgets of sensitive MDAs—including the presidency and security agencies—can be made public, what then is the defence for keeping the budgets of the GOEs off-limit?  

I have found only two lines for GOEs in the proposed budget: N1.91 trillion for recurrent and N820.91 billion for capital. By contrast, the Budget Office of the Federation made public the 2024 proposed budgets of 26 professional bodies and 63 GOEs. The latter, a 282-page document still available on Budget Office’s website, provided granular details and a window into the profligacy and misapplication of scarce public resources going on in these entities. It is likely that a decision was made to stop the disclosure of the budgets of the GOEs because of the mild public outrage of last year. But these entities are still public, not private. And the budgets of the presidency and others attract constant reactions from the public and they still get published. So, what is special about these agencies? Once a standard is established, we need to maintain, not subvert, it. Transparency in the management of public resources is a virtue that we should never go back on.  

Barely mid way into his four-year tenure, President Tinubu has scored a contradictory political victory. He has succeeded in getting the political barometer of the nation to swing towards preparations for 2027 instead of pressuring him to deliver on the promises he and his party made in 2023. In tandem, a nationwide gale of opposition to the Tinubu presidency is building up in many fronts.

The national discourse has however moved gradually away from whether Mr. Tinubu is a good president to whether he stands a chance of being re-elected for a second term in 2027. This is a major political victory albeit one that promises to rebound with dire consequences for both the president and the many who seek his job in 2027.

Those who insist that Mr. Tinubu is more of an adept politician than a technocratic administrator may have this development to swear by. Ordinarily, the current mood of the nation ought to dictate that our political discourse should be dominated by  arguments as to how to make the lives of Nigerians more livable. The epidemic of hunger, the massive deprivations, the avoidable economic hardship and the desperate internal security situation are all issues that dominate the lives and thoughts of most Nigerians. But Tinubu and the politicians have managed to thwart these and navigate the focus into the brackish waters of Nigerian election politics.

But in Nigerian politics, matters of rice and garri, house rents and school fees not to talk of fuel prices and transport fares and prices of basic medications have a way of refusing to disappear from the radar of public perception.  But for now, it is all about the prospects of 2027 and the profiles of the gathering opposition to Mr. Tinubu’s lacklustre  dispensation.

Interestingly, the politicians do not seem so concerned about what the public thinks about Mr. Tinubu’s performance on the job. It all seems to be about  seeking to uproot the man from his political deep roots and all costs paid accommodation at Aso Villa.

A primary level of the brewing opposition is of course at the partisan level. The main opposition party is still the PDP  with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as its perennial mascot. Characteristically, Atiku has been busy with pointed criticisms of the Tinubu government nearly every inch of the way. As an opposition leader, his perspectives  on the pitfalls incumbent government  seem somewhat too predictable.

As the major opposition party, the fate of the PDP is literally in the hands of the Tinubu formation. Through the agency of FCT Minister, Mr. Nyesom Wike, the PDP has a resident destabilization machinery acting on behalf of the APC . That machinery has only one charge: to ensure that the party dies an incremental death and is in no position to wage a consequential challenge against the APC in 2027 or any time. We can already see the handiwork of the agents in the festering crises in the party. The free for all fights, the ejections of the BOT chairperson from the party, the conflicting court rulings on who really presides over the party etc.

The other strident voice of the opposition is that of Mr. Peter Obi and his dwindling Labour Party. Unlike Atiku, Obi has two voices. He speaks for both Labour Party and for his ubiquitous ‘Obedient family’.  He has been busy following the incumbent government with day to day close marking with criticisms based on basic fundamentals of  governance, public responsibility, accountability and sensitivity to the welfare of the masses. Consistently, Obi has mostly assessed the performance and priorities of the incumbent government on the basis of his own emphasis on education, healthcare and poverty alleviation. He has hardly presented the Nigerian public with an alternative governance and development template. Consequently, his considerable youth followership still remains a social media and mostly Twitter  phenomenon.

Yet the business of political opposition, properly conceived, goes far beyond pointed criticism of the incumbent government. A properly structured opposition ought to be literally an alternative government in the shadows. For every government policy or programme it disagrees with, the public ought to expect it to come up with a reasoned alternative to that of the incumbent. 

Many Nigerians will recall the character of political opposition in the days of Chief Obafemi Awolowo and his Unity Party of Nigeria in particular. Awo and his party had alternative computations on the national debt, the cost of each primary and secondary school, what it would cost to provide low cost housing for deserving Nigerians etc. There was an alternative template for governance. In effect, we have passed through political periods when opposition was rooted in ideological differences and differences of strategy and policy implementation. We have arrived at the point where political opposition is literally now more of a beer parlor banter and street side quarrels among politicians.

Majorly, then, President Bola Tinubu’s political career is faced with three major opposition threats. An aggressive multi party opposition is building up against him and they are not disguising their determination to chuck him out of the Villa in 2027. From inside his ruling APC,  the more progressive wing of the party is organizing an oppositional standpoint against the Tinubu government as retribution for their alienation since after the party’s victory in the 2023 presidential election.

Thirdly and perhaps most consequentially, the Tinubu administration is faced with an increasingly widespread nationwide indifference and apathy from the general populace. People are so innured of suffering and hardship that they can hardly feel the presence of a government that faintly appears to have a mandate to rule a united nation. It is only that the President has been quarantined into his personal power cubicle or is cocooned in the comfort of his South West primary constituency.

Partisan opposition from other parties and the disgruntlement of the populace are natural occurrences in the political life of any nation. But opposition from within a ruling party has a potential of weakening the ruling party from within.

The co- existence of different tendencies in a political party is a sign of good health. By their nature, parties are organic creatures that bring together people with different shades of the same basic conviction in broad consensus about society. The elite of a party represent only a rough consensus, not a perfect unity of beliefs, ideas and strategies. So the coexistence of different  tendencies is  natural in the anatomy of parties as political organisms.

The ruling APC went into the 2023 presidential primaries and election looking like one party. It emerged in power as the truly fractured and divided party that  is now on display. There are at least two APCs. There is the dominant Tinubu APC which is in power at the federal level and in most states of the federation.

The APC whose ‘progressive’ name and flag the party flies is mostly progressive merely at the level of party label. But the APC of Tinubu, Akpabio, Umahi and Ganduje is essentially a conservative and traditional Nigerian political assemblage of convenience held together by money, influence and vested interest. It is a party on the side of the rich and with an undisguised  commitment to create more billionaires through government patronage. It does not matter to the party whether the billions they put in private pockets trickle down to the masses. Instead,, the masses are further pushed to the walls of poverty through tariff hikes, levies, taxes and higher rates on utilities. Mass immiseration becomes a tool of governance to create a more pliant  populace.

This wing of the party has an ideal of the Nigerian future which happens to be in the past- the place of old national anthems and old political models.

On the contrary, there is the more truly progressive, radical  wing of the APC  most of whose candidates lost the party primaries at the state and federal levels. A social democratic wing with clearly identifiable nationalist slant. A clear people oriented idea of social progress. They believe that an enlightened leadership that adheres to the popular wishes of the popular masses, does what they want, tells them what they want to hear and maintains an activist proactive approach to governance. Lineage, history, examples in contemporary global political leadership. This arm of the APC is the party of Yemi Osinbajo, Adams Oshiomole, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El-Rufai and the many others who think in their mould.

The illusion that this more progressive arm of the APC would remain silent into the 2027 political season is foolish. Most of them are relatively young politicians. They are visible, aggressive, eloquent  brilliant and aggrieved. They feel short changed and cheated out of the power game. To that extent, they are angry about the state of the nation and their own collective plight as part of a political elite. They are afraid of being counted among the Buhari-bred politicians that later came to betray the nation and the hopes of its peoples. How to exonerate themselves from the infamy of the Tinubu faction. That is the historic burden of the ‘the other APC’. 

In my view, the most consequential groundswell of opposition to the Tinubu presidency is an internal APC elite opposition rooted in the northern precincts of the country. There is a growing feeling among the northern political elite that Mr. Tinubu has betrayed the political followership that Mr. Buhari bequeathed to him. Not even his Moslem-Moslem ticket seems to have dented the growing disquiet in the north.   Unfortunately, there is no corresponding increase in any southern zonal followership.    

Clearly then, there is an efflorescence of opposition forces massing up against the Tinubu presidency towards 2027. It is regional, partisan and even broad based among the masses. Yet the more diverse this opposition is , the larger it gets. And yet, the larger it is, the most difficult it could be to form a coalition of forces. The paradox is that a large and unmanageable opposition is in the interest of Mr. Tinubu. He is in a unique position to use his power and resources to keep his opponents permanently divided and thus prevent the emergence of the kind of formidable opposition coalition that can chase him away from Aso Rock Villa in 2027.

Some people occupy positions of authority yet remain nothing more than flower boys, flower girls, or even flower pots—ornamental, passive, and incapable of real action. Dr. Jumoke Oduwole is not one of them. Her latest decision to fully digitise the Federal Ministry of Trade and Investment by 2025 is proof of her drive, vision, and refusal to be merely decorative.

The digitisation move from Oduwole is not just another policy announcement; it is a decisive shift toward efficiency, transparency, and global relevance. For years, bureaucratic delays and outdated processes have hindered trade and investment in Nigeria. By championing digitalisation, Oduwole is setting a strict deadline for reform, so that the ministry matches 21st-century demands.

A strong leader does not walk alone. Oduwole has brought stakeholders together, securing a strategic partnership with the AIG Imoukhuede Foundation. This collaboration will focus on digital skills training, automated processes, and performance management, ensuring the transformation is not only implemented but sustained. The signing of a performance bond reinforces that accountability is central to her vision.

The stakes are high. A successful digital transformation will accelerate service delivery, attract investment, and position Nigeria as a competitive player in global trade. Failure, however, would mean another missed opportunity, another cycle of inefficiency. But Oduwole’s track record leaves little room for doubt—she has faced complex challenges before and emerged with results.

True leaders distinguish themselves through courage and execution. Oduwole’s decision is about substance. Like the palm tree that bends but does not break, she has weathered political transitions, policy shifts, and institutional inertia, remaining steadfast in her pursuit of progress.

Oduwole is not a flower girl; she is a force of transformation. Those who underestimate her do so at their own peril. With this latest move, she has once again raised the bar, proving that leadership is not about decoration but determination.

[ThisDay]

When veteran politician, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, and foremost publisher, Chief Joop Berkhout, joined the ancestral realm within days of each other, Nigerians were unanimous in their verdict that the two deaths truly diminished us all. In both cases, it can be said without equivocation that the men lived for something.

Last year, on the occasion of his 95th birthday, I described Adebanjo as a member of a vanishing breed of men and women who chose the straight and narrow path of rectitude in public life and who were not afraid to stand alone if necessary in the pursuit of the greatest good for the greatest number.

It is not given to all men to live for a cause. Some men live for nothing and die as if they never lived. When they die, no matter how many vaults they have stashed with liquid cash or how many corporate entities they have presided over, it is as if Shakespeare’s famous quote: “When beggars die…”, has no meaning.

Granted that we cannot all be in the driver’s seat of life, we can at least hold a torch or a compass to help our fellowmen see and navigate the way so that when we expire a deep darkness descends on the rest of humanity in acknowledgement of a life lived in the service of others. In the face of imminent death, at his trial for impiety and corrupting youth, Socrates said: “The unexamined life is not worth living”. A philosopher with a religious hue would say a life not lived in the service of others is not worth living.

Both Adebanjo and Berkhout, though originally children of different cultures, lived and died in the service of the Nigerian society in their uniquely different ways. Because both were field marshals in their different spheres of influence, their demise attracted presidential attention.

Adebanjo

Considering their political differences in the recent past, it was touching to read President Tinubu’s tribute to Adebanjo which I have edited for space:

“All who knew Baba Adebanjo drew from his boundless wisdom and cherished the democratic ideals he tirelessly campaigned for.

“His principled voice, which resonated through decades of political activism, will be deeply missed. As a nation, we will miss his regular interventions in national affairs, which enriched our political discourse. Though we mourn his departure, we are also grateful to God for blessing him with a long, remarkable, purposeful life – 96 years of unrelenting advocacy for progress and equity.

“Baba, as a lawyer, statesman, and politician, stood among the last of a generation of nationalists and independent heroes who shaped the foundation of our country…

“In moments of national crisis, Baba’s courage shone brightest. When democracy hung in the balance after the annulment of the June 12, 1993, presidential election, he joined the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) as one of the leading voices against military dictatorship, helping to galvanise a movement that became the bedrock of our collective struggle to reclaim democratic governance.

“His unwavering commitment to truth and justice extended to my journey as a governorship candidate in 1999. Baba Adebanjo’s steadfast support was instrumental in my election as Governor of Lagos State under the platform of the Alliance for Democracy.

“Though our political paths diverged in later years, my respect and admiration for him never wavered. Until his death, I shared a deep personal bond with Baba Adebanjo; he was like a father figure….”

Principle

In truth, I think Tinubu’s respect for Adebanjo didn’t go unnoticed by the old man during his lifetime. Incredible as it sounds, considering the many moons one has put into the journalism profession, I never met Chief Adebanjo one-on-one. But my readers will recall that I did have the privilege of an exclusive telephone interview with him on his 95th birthday at which he expressed his view on his relationship with President Tinubu as follows:

“I have nothing personal against Bola Tinubu. I should be proud that somebody I made the governor is now president. He has always been respectful to me, very liberal. There’s no Christmas he wouldn’t send me presents — even during the COVID pandemic. But that is not the issue. When he returned from overseas medical treatment, I went to greet him. He calls me Uncle. My children call him uncle. I did everything in my power to make him governor without collecting one kobo from him. That is my record.”

He lived a principled life which many of his critics described as rigid, but he had an explanation for this stance: “I can’t be bothered if anyone considers me rigid because I loyally follow my principles. As a Yoruba man, I live by a set of values. To subvert your principles in order to be accepted as not rigid is unwise and fraudulent. Those who have no principles are always quick to label others as rigid because they will do anything to get what they want. For me, the rightness of a cause is critically important. I don’t owe anybody an apology for staying true to the principles established by our leader, Papa Awolowo.”

Berkhout

The other Nigerian who boarded the eternal flight of immortality at the departure lounge of life was the redoubtable Chief Joop Berkhout, a Dutchman who held the chieftaincy title of ‘Okun Borode of Ile-Ife’.

Berkhout was born in Amsterdam on March 31, 1930. But he relocated to Nigeria in the 1950s after the Second World War had ravaged his family home in The Netherlands and destroyed his father’s hotel business. Before coming to Nigeria, he had worked in Tanzania and Zambia. It was in Nigeria that he was destined to become the foremost publisher with his Spectrum Books Limited which he later sold before retiring into his other company, Safari Books.

Publishing was his life. He loved Nigeria with such passion that many wondered what was behind the ardour. I got to meet him through his great friend and grandfather of the Nigerian novel, Chief Cyprian Ekwensi MFR, the Osi Baarohin of Ibadanland. Once, during a period he was supposed to be on a six week leave in his native Netherlands, he showed up at Ekwensi’s Ojuelegba, Lagos, home.

Asked what he was doing there when he had earlier announced that he would be away for six weeks, he explained that he truly went back home to see his sister and other family members. But after the first five days, he had seen everybody and the excitement of his visit was wearing off. To make matters worse, there was nothing to challenge the senses or hone one’s instincts – no power outage; no area boys; no ‘Owambe’ parties; no itinerant drummers; no retinue of friends, associates, hangers-on, hustlers and – importantly, he said – no writers with perpetually open doors whose homes he could invade 24/7 without notice…

I wasn’t surprised when Berkhout showed up at the burial of Ekwensi’s Mum in Nkwelle-Ezunaka one unforgettable evening, donning an ‘aso-ebi’ wrapper over his trousers and dancing the night away with gusto. That is my enduring memory of him as he now gyrates his way into the ancestral rafters.

To Adebanjo and Berkhout, peace. Perfect peace.

I would like to kill two birds with only one stone today. In the last two weeks I wrote two inconclusive pieces on “federal universities without national character” and “Why Uni-Abuja needs more than firing VC”. And so I would like to round off the two related pieces without equivocations on the challenges since the Visitor to the federal universities has decisively intervened, especially through the one I have tagged our “federation university” (University of Abuja). I claimed here then that the University of Abuja is too important to be left to provincial irredentists who threatened to diminish its stature and status as a federal and federation university. That is why I haven’t been referring to it as Yakubu Gowon University as it has been renamed. This isn’t an Inside-Stuff’s disrespectful attitude to the amiable General, Yakubu Gowon, generally believed to be one of the last, (some say the last) of the authentic ones.

Let’s get quickly to the brass tacks: There are some strategic lessons the federal government should learn from recent developments. First, there has been a great deal of carelessness on the part of regulators and quality-control arms of the federal ministry of education. What is more, from comments and lamentation of insiders, the so-called university autonomy has been remarkably abused by Governing Councils and Managements of the public universities. ASUU leaders and members at the receiving end have grown weary even as some of the union leaders have resigned to fate.

And here is the thing, the authorities, indeed the Visitors to the public universities should note this: they need to nip in the bud the reproach of emerging ethnic crisis in Nigerian universities. Reason? As it has been written several times, universities by their evolution, philosophy, essence and character, are universal institutions established to provide solutions to problems that confront humanity. And so the brightest and the best in learning and character are always called upon top run such citadels of learning where primordial sentiments such as ethnicity and religion should not rear their ugly heads.

It is therefore unfortunate that ethnicity, a fault line that has been a threat to our national cohesion has become manifest in Nigerian universities. Specifically, this enemy called ethnicity is being unethically weaponised on appointments and even on influencing election outcomes into elective positions in the ivory towers. This is sad. The implication has been that merit is sacrificed on the altar of mediocrity and ethnic antagonism is being heightened. What is worse, as competency and meritocracy take the back seat, competent candidates from ethnic minorities hardly assume positions of leadership in today’s universities.

So, instead of being a place to use the best brains for our national development, our tertiary institutions are becoming battlegrounds for ethnic jingoism, to the extent that the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) had to warn against the monster of ethic crisis in Nigerian universities. This is another sad commentary on the state of higher education in the country.

Without prejudice to a few cases, where an insignificant number of exposed scholars are fighting ethnicity; positions, disciplinary actions and activities in Nigerian universities are often ‘shaped’ too by audacity of ethnicity. As such, in October 2019. ASUU’s warning and this reminder should not be discounted; rather it should be taken seriously to form a compass for policies on university governance – to avoid enthroning mediocrity in our universities.

Let’s therefore not get it twisted, the autonomy, which shouldn’t prevent quality control and regulation has gone haywire and the duty bearers, indeed the Visitors to the public universities appear to have failed the nation in the choice of Chairmen/Pro-chancellors and members of the Governing Councils who have been responsible for choice of most times anyhow Vice Chancellors who have no chests. For instance, let’s look at the troubled University of Abuja in the last five years. Who nominated the last Chairman of the Governing Council/Pro Chancellor who allegedly lowered standard for the immediate past Vice Chancellor to come in after disqualifying all other qualified candidates of diversity five years ago? What was the colour of diversity in the membership of the immediate past Governing Council before the just dissolved ones? The then Minister of Education assisted the presidency in compiling the list of members of the Governing Council, which assisted the management in interviewing candidates for the Vice Chancellor, the Registrar, and the Bursar. What led to the coincidence that in the last dispensation of leadership and management of the University of Abuja, the Chairman of the Governing Council, the Vice Chancellor, the Registrar and the Bursar all hail from a section of the country and of the same faith. How did the immediate past Vice Chancellor manage the autonomy the law gives him in promoting his stooges? How did the authorities in Abuja allow the same Vice Chancellor who hails from Ilorin Kwara state to appoint about 400 academic staff and about 250 of them hail from Ilorin, capital of his state of origin? How did the same former Vice Chancellor promote, promote the daughter of the then Pro Chancellor with barely two years of professorial experience as Deputy Vice Chancellor over and above other senior professors? How did it happen that the successor to Sani Maikudi (Katsina) AVM Saddiq Ismaila Kaita (rtd) also hail from Katsina? Why didn’t the authorities always look at the status of the University of Abuja, for instance, while constituting members of the Governing Council and Management?

A clear deliverable to the current authorities in Nigeria is that there has been a failure of governance and due diligence in the constituting Governing Council membership. The University of Abuja is just an example of consequences of carelessness and failure of governance on the part of the Federal Ministry of Education in the management of tertiary education.

While reacting to the last week’s article here on the argument that the Visitor to the University of Abuja should go beyond firing a Vice chancellor of a state university sent this to me:
‘…President Tinubu did well by his intervention. But he and his team are also part of the problem to start with, as a fundamental part of the problem of the University of Abuja is the Council.  The government needs to stop making the University Council appointments a job for the boys – individuals appointed simply on a political basis and with no character, no knowledge of the university system, and no interest in any developmental agenda. All they want is to come and collect sitting allowances and pressurise the university leadership for all kinds of pecuniary gains even in the face of harsh economic realities.

One of the thoughtless dimensions of the government appointment of the Council Chairman is the appointment of a current staff of another university to come and be the Pro-chancellor of another university as is the case of OAU. It has happened twice in the history of OAU in the last couple of years.  So, the Pro-chancellor of OAU would need to take the permission of his own VC (Osun State University) to be away to chair the meeting of the Council of another university where he supercedes the VC of that university.

So, the Government needs to be more serious and deliberate in selecting the Chairman of University Council and, indeed, all other Government representatives on a university Council…Part of the problem of admission is Nigerian big men and big women who would use all connections to push VCs into terribly tight corners and don’t care a hoot about the University’s predicament of limited spaces and inadequate facilities…’
That should conclude the whole matter about how not to constitute membership of the Governing Councils of public universities. The university system is too important to be subjected to the shenanigan and peccadillos of partisan politicians.

In a piece titled, “Where is Tinubu’s Government of National Competence” here on Sunday June 9, 2024, I recalled that while still basking in the glory of realising a lifetime ambition in March 2023 as president-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu had then assured Nigerians that his administration would not only be a government of national unity but also of national competence.

Let’s recall that specifically, there was a statement to that effect on March 16, 2023. In that remarkable message, there was a glimmer of “hope of a better tomorrow” Ngugi says, “is the only comfort you can give to a weeping child”. As I was saying here, in what looks like Buhari’s “I-Belong-to-no-body” famous speech on inauguration day on May 29, 2015, the president-elect then promised to assemble competent men and women and young people from across the country to build a safer, more prosperous and just Nigeria. The statement titled: “Nigeria: At the cusp of renewed hope” unveiled what Nigerians should expect under his watch. Enunciating his commitment to an economy of double-digit GDP growth, greater food security and a strengthened manufacturing base, the President-elect said his administration would pursue an active digital economy where young people would have ample space to fulfill their dreams and aspirations. With the elections over, he stressed the need to shun partisanship and join hands with him to build the Nigeria of our dream. While assuring the people of his readiness to serve, the former Lagos Governor said, ‘I have set my course and mind on the leadership of this nation. We have important work to do and I am committed to getting that work done for the benefit of all the people, whether or not they voted for me or even voted at all. This is not the time for continued acrimony and partisan recrimination. These negative things can incite strong passions, but they are not the pathway to a better nation. Only unity and national commitment can serve that purpose…’

This isn’t a time to put the fine speech of the president-elect then to test. It is just a time to remind him as President that for him to fulfill that promise of running a government of not just of national unity but also a national competence, he has to begin the process of promoting meritocracy within the context of federal character. He should take interest in who gets what from now. Only good trees he intentionally plants now can produce good fruits of national competence. What is more, he should not allow his ministers and other president’s men to be imposing mediocrities on institutions including and especially the Universities’ Governing Council. He needs to strengthen and use the human resource and experience in the presidential bureaucracy comprising the office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Head of the Civil Service of the Federation and office of the Chairman of the Federal Civil Service Commission in his choice of men and women for public service and the university system.

The crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) took a new dimension yesterday as the party’s South-South Zonal Executive Committee (ZEC) suspended the zonal secretary, Chief Felix Omemu, for one month over alleged misconduct and unauthorised statements in the media discrediting the ZEC meeting in Benin.

Omemu had in a statement issued in Yenagoa stated that the meeting called by Chief Dan Orbih was illegal, stressing that in line with the PDP constitution, the ZEC meeting could only be held with the approval of the zonal working committee.

Omemu disclosed that there was no such time that the Zonal Working Committee deliberated and agreed to convene a meeting of the Zonal Executive Council.

At the South South Zonal Executive Committee meeting in Benin, Rt. Hon. Martin Chike Amaewhule, Speaker River State House of Assembly moved the motion for the suspension of the Zonal Secretary, Chief Felix Omemu, which was seconded by Godwin Offiono member representing Ogoja/Yala constituency in the 10th National Assembly.

Amaewhule accused Chief Felix Omemu of of misconduct, breach of trust and fostering division among members.

He said the suspension was due to insurance of unauthorized statements  in the media concerning the ZEC South South meeting calling on members not to attend.

“Chief Felix Omemu must be  suspended and a Disciplinary committee set-up to investigate the zonal secretary . “Amaewhule said.

Amaewhule described the zonal secretary’s action as illegal and an attempt to cause disunity and dissuade members from attending the  South South ZEC meeting in Benin.

Following the suspension,  PDP zonal legal adviser, George Turnah  was immediately appointed to function as the Acting zonal secretary .

On his part,  National Vice Chairman (South-South), Chief Dan

Orbih lauded the ZEC for the suspension, saying the move is a right step in the right direction  aimed at repositioning the party and curbing the excesses of some leaders and members of the party to cause disunity among others.

The South South  Zonal Executive Committee  meeting was attended by its Zonal chairman,  Senators, and House of Representatives members drawn from 5 states in the south south except Awka Ibom State delegates

[Leadership]

The House of Representatives Committee on Public Assets has begun investigation into the sales and collapse of the Delta Steel Company (DSC), Aladja, Warri in Delta State.

The committee headed by Hon. Ademorin Kuye grilled the management team of Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE), Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON), Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (AGF) Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MoFI) among others over the sales and collapse of Delta Steel Company.

The committee is particularly probing into how the steel company which was worth over $700 million was sold below $30 million following a petition received by the House on the matter.

Kuye said the committee whose mandate includes oversight over the use, management and disposal of all federal government assets within and outside the country decided to probe the purported sales of the Delta Steel Company and the controversies surrounding its acquisition by AMCON.

Briefing the committee, the Director General of Bureau of Public Enterprises, Mr. Ayodeji Ariyo Gbeleyi, said following the privatisation policy of the Federal Government, 80% shareholdings of Delta Steel Company was sold to Global Infrastructure Nigeria Ltd (GINL) in 2005 while Federal Government (BPE) retained 20% of the shareholdings.

According to Gbeleyi, the DSC was worth $700 million, but 80% of the asset was sold to GINL at $30 million

He said residential buildings and plots of land belonging to the Delta Steel Company were used to settle the workers and pensioners of the company.

Gbeleyi said the company, GINL, after privatisation used the assets of DSC as collateral to obtain a loan from Ecobank. However, he said due to non-performance of the loan, in 2015, AMCON acquired the assets and sold them to Premium Steel and Mines Ltd.

He said AMCON did not seek clarification from BPE regarding contractual agreement before it acquired the asset and sold it to another company.

The petitioners, including Association of Concerned Residents of Camp 2, 4 and 5 of Delta Steel Company, Aladja Warri, told the committee that prior to 2015 before the involvement of AMCON and Premium Steel and Mines in DSC assets, they had been staying in the estate and plots of land which were used to settle them based on the contractual agreement.

However, since 2015 till date, the petitioners claimed that they had been under constant intimidation and harassment by police and army personnel claiming to be acting on the instructions from AMCON and Premium Steel and Mines that they should quit the estates.

Speaking on behalf of the petitioners, Dr. David Emomotimi and Richardson Osifor, said the assets AMCON acquired were those used as collateral by Global Infrastructure Nigeria Ltd to obtain loans from Ecobank which did not in any way include the residential buildings.

Osifor said from the contract agreement and information at the Corporate Affairs Commission, the loan Global Infrastructure Nigeria Ltd obtained from Ecobank was N250 million but AMCOM jacked it up to N7 billion.

Similarly, the Director of BPE, Gbeleyi added that they were only aware of the loan Global Infrastructure Nigeria Ltd took from Ecobank but unaware of 3 other banks AMCON listed as the creditors.

In their submission, the representatives of AMCON, noted that AMCON acquired the assets of DSC used as collateral to obtain loan from four banks to prevent them from collapse.

Chukwuemeka Umunakwu (AMCON legal unit) said AMCON acquired the assets at N22 billion but sold it to Premium Steel and Mines at N32 billion.

In response to enquiry by the committee whether the office of the Accountant General of the Federation has the receipt of payments by both BPE and AMCON in respect of sales of Delta Steel Company’s assets, the representative of AGF, Kabiru Ademola (Director, Finance) acknowledged receipt of N3 billion in favour of BPE in respect of sales of 80% of DSC assets to Global Infrastructure Nigeria Ltd.

He said the AGF was yet to get any response from the Central Bank regarding claim of payment of N32 billion by AMCON in respect of DSC assets to Premium Steel and Mines Ltd. Though AMCON claimed the money was paid to FG account, (TSA), the agency was unable to provide the proof of payment to the committee.

The Managing Director/CEO of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI), Dr. Armstrong Takang in his submission said though MOFI is responsible for overseeing the management of assets and investments in the country, the agency withdrew from the issue of Delta Steel Company due to so many controversies.

Takang expressed concern over the collapse and death of Delta Steel Company and similar entities in the country.

He said “If our forefathers who were less exposed and less educated would build such infrastructure and maintaining it by our contemporary leaders who are more exposed and educated than them will be a problem, I wonder what will be the future of the country.”

The committee directed AMCON and Premium Steel and Mines to desist from harassing the residents of the estate in Delta Steel Company until the investigation is completed.

[DailyTrust]

The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has denied reports claiming that the national grid collapsed twice in 2025.

In a statement on its official X handle on Saturday, TCN said it is mischievous and misleading.

“It is pertinent to note that the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) is regulated by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and governed by industry documents,” TCN said.

“The documents reserve for the National Control Centre System Operator or her designated back-up, the National Supplementary Control Centre (SNCC) the exclusive right to provide information to the public about events and status of the grid.”

The company clarified that while there was no system collapse, a tripping incident occurred on February 12, 2025, affecting power supply in Abuja, Lagos, and Osogbo.

TCN explained that the Omotosho-Ikeja West 330 kilovolt (kV) transmission line tripped, while the Benin-Egbin 330kV line was undergoing scheduled maintenance.

The disruption caused a cascade effect, leading to outages in some areas, though other parts of the country remained unaffected.

“Full restoration of bulk power supply to affected areas has since been completed,” TCN said.

The TCN urged journalists and the public to verify grid-related information from authorised sources to prevent the spread of false reports.

On Wednesday, some parts of the country were without electricity after the national grid experienced a disturbance.

Data obtained from the independent system operator (ISO) showed that the megawatt (MW) generated dropped from 4,064.70 (MW) to 1,222.78 (MW).

HIS venture of taking down Tinubu in 2027 does not sound profitable to me. I don’t know how the planners want to do it anyway. But before he died in 2020, my father used to advise me to only engage in fruitful business. If he were to be around, I would have gone back to tell him that, Papa, all the businesses in Nigeria, except poli-tics, illegal mining of solid minerals like gold in Zamfara, oil theft in the Niger Delta, kidnapping and naked banditry, have become unprofitable. Feel free to ask anyone who is doing any business outside this range, including Aliko Dangote, to verify what I am saying.

Therefore, if it is in the context of politics being among the few thriving businesses in today’s Nigeria that the company to purportedly seize Aso Rock from Tinubu in 2027 has been incorporated outside the Corporate Affairs Commission, I will understand and even encourage the shareholders to double efforts. After all, wealth acquisition has also been democratised in Nigeria. It comes even in more ways than hard work. It is not like Christian theology where the way to heaven is just one narrow and rough path.

But if what is currently afloat is politics in the strict sense of creating the attendant intrigues for power grab, I would sincerely wish to advise the players, like my father advised me, to recalibrate and refocus. People have started travelling up and down to Ota, Minna and other places for meetings to plan the take-over of Aso Rock in 2027 as if it is Ojota motor-park in Lagos that they want to take over. Well, the Bible [and I guess the Qu’ran does too] teaches us that with God all things are possible. This is true.

But it is also true that a chunk of Christian and Islamic theology underscores the imperativeness of individual responsibility in the divine scheme. It means the grace is not as gratuitous as we think.

That God or Allah does not descend into the earthly arena of play to fix what we can fix as umpires and players.

Let’s get it straight. Is it the same Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is also called Asiwaju, Jagaban, Senator, ex-Governor and now President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria that these people are talking of dislodging from the most privileged height? Or some look-alike of him or a fellow, who happens, in an unusual coincidence, to share the same first, middle and last names with him, that is in contemplation? I want to say that it is not today that the efforts to stop Tinubu in his track started. For instance, his emergence as the candidate of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the 1999 governorship election in Lagos State was not without a subtle battle. He won the cold war against the more formidable late Funsho Williams.

Within the Southwest in the 1999 – 2003 dispensation, governorship tickets, as well as the presidential and other tickets of the AD, were by affirmation and not competition. The tickets were for Afenifere to allocate as it deemed fit and not for the strongest contenders to grab. This was against the backdrop of the coordinated struggles, especially in the South West, to dislodge the military after its criminal annulment of the 1993 presidential election which the late Chief M.K.O Abiola won, and return the country to a democratic rule. And so, when democracy finally berthed in 1999, it became payback time for people who did more than the ordinary to contain the military and bring about democracy.

I wouldn’t know how the ranking was done. But Tinubu, rightly or wrongly, was put in this class of high pro-democracy perform-ers. He was said to have contributed handsomely to the funding of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), the arrow-head of the pro-democracy struggles while on a self-imposed exile in the United States to escape Abacha’s persecution. Accordingly, the sentiments flowed in his advantage. Afenifere also believed that compensating Tinubu with the Lagos State governorship was the least that could be done for a seemingly proven Yoruba patriot.

Meanwhile, nothing about Tinubu betrayed his inner strength or thinking. The decoy was perfect. The high degree of Machiavellian ruthlessness and invincibility in political battles that has been on display since his coronation as Governor of Lagos State by Afenifere, was not in any way foreseen. Even so, Afenifere had acted in utmost good faith. It was just that Tinubu had his game plan properly worked out. He wanted to become an emperor and needed the 1999 political take-off grant by Afenifere and nothing more, to conquer and conquer. He had stooped very low, including accepting to be yoked by a non-align female deputy just to earn the grant. I guess, he would have sworn too, after that ex-perience, to work hard to retain all the ace cards and increase his confidence in the unfolding game. He understands that to remain a king forever, the king must kill the kingmaker. He didn’t like the idea of being called to order by any commanding voice. Only the voice of Afenifere had that commanding tone. One way to tone down Afenifere is to cause it to replicate a Renewal version and other versions that can detract from the original.

That was successfully achieved, touching off a radical reversal of roles. Instead of Afenifere dictating to Tinubu, as it was before his inauguration as Governor in 1999, it has been the other way round The old and renewed versions of the organisation have not agreed once on a common position regarding the political ambition of Ti-nubu. If the old says no, the new will say yes and vice versa. And since it is the same Afenifere that is manifesting in more than one way like the Holy Trinity, Tinubu usually follows the manifestation that feeds his purpose. For instance, in 2023, he did not follow the old group which said it was the turn of the South East to produce the president of Nigeria. He went with the renewal version whose voice sounded sweet; saying he could continue after Obasanjo and Osinbajo and the heavens would not fall.

He has always taken a step at a time. In 2003, Obasanjo, who became President in 1999 without home support, needed to cultivate one in the 2003 electoral outing. The deal, on one hand, was for the PDP to have its way in the presidential election so that Obasanjo could become a prophet with honour at home. On the other hand, and by way of reciprocating the nice gesture, President Obasanjo would hold back the deployment of the well known and accepted federal might in national politics, from creating upsets in the governorship election in the six South West States of Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo. In summary, it was agreed that the eagle would perch and the six kites would perch too.

But the deal was not that transparent. Tinubu who is also deft in con artistry, understands when a dealer is up to no good. He saw through the OBJ scheme and pulled back. When the owner identifies and takes back his stolen goat at the point of sale in the open market, the thief does well to remain silent. Obasanjo allowed the scheme to run without Lagos. In the end, Tinubu became the only man standing in the PDP-induced tsunami that swept through the South West in 2003.This was the first dependable signal that the Jagaban was not ordinary in the game of intrigues.

Both Tinubu and Obasanjo left office in 2007. But while one went into gathering and building a political empire, the other went into scattering and destroying even the little he had spent time and effort to built. In eight years, Tinubu was able to recover the fallen South West for a good bargain with Muhammadu Bu-hari in 2015. On the flip side, Obasanjo in eight years was able to mobilise like-minds like Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi and others to destroy the PDP. He even made a big spectacle in Ota of the destruction of his PDP membership card. Tinubu spent time outside power; between 2007 and 2023, a whole 16 years, working for more power. And he got what he worked for. That is what my late father called profitable trade which people should engage in and not the type of fruitless venture that some people are planning against 2027.

Everyone knew where Tinubu was headed but no one could stop him. For decades he postured as a democrat, progressive and activist but even Afenifere could not exercise the due diligence to unmask him. When he was just a mere unprofiled pro-democracy activist without any form of lethal powers, he could not be stopped from becoming Governor of Lagos State. And after finishing as governor, those who claim to own Lagos, including Chief Olabode George, could not stop the foreigner from Osun State from continuing as Governor through proxies till date.

The Buhari Presidency that Tinubu decisively assisted in creating never wanted him to succeed Buhari. But the same Tinubu, in the build up to 2023, went to Abeokuta to state, clear and loud, and without any fear of being contradicted, the Emilokan Project. The APC did not say it was not the turn of Tinubu. President Buhari couldn’t invoke some executive order as President Trump is doing in America, to stop Tinubu in his track. Instead, everybody marked time until Tinubu contested and won the presidential elections according to INEC and the Supreme Court.

His names, even till now, spells doubt on account of the many stories of crime around him. He is this and that! Yet af-ter losing immunity as Governor, the Attorney-General of the Federation under a PDP government did not file a criminal charge against him. Also, none of the Attorneys-General in the 36 states did anything to reinforce the public perception.

Persons and institutions that should conduct a proper character audit slept off, while Tinubu remained awake for16 good years, scheming for the realisation of May 29, 2023 in his life.

The worst that ever happened to him, was his appearance at the Code of Conduct Tribunal to answer charges of false declaration of assets. He scaled the hurdle and re-entered Bourdillon, Lagos, from Abuja, as the real lion, conqueror, emperor and champion. The Federal Government under President Goodluck Jonathan was boxed into an underdog and appeared diminished in the ensuing optics.

In the 1999 Class of Governors, Tinubu stands very tall and alone. Nobody comes close, except, perhaps, Chief James Onanefe Ibori of Delta State, who, in spite of tra-vails, has managed to hold together part of his political clan. Others have been on a steady downward curve of devaluation; moving between being senators, ministers and errand boys to the executive at the Federal and State levels. And so, if you ask me, I will give it to Tinubu. He has exercised a superior acumen over the Nigerian State and its agents. He has worked so hard to convert tall names and his erstwhile principals into his die-hard fans. Pa Adebisi Akande, Pa Segun Osoba and even the respected Professor do not say to him. I think he should be applauded.

Aziza is the unparalled forest spirit in Urhobocosmol-ogy. No entity contests the ownership of the forest with it. Tinubu has strengthened into the Aziza of national politics. He should just be allowed to dissipate in eight years instead of incurring his wrath. Aziza also loves roaming large in incredible strides. It moves in a hur-ricane, tornado or any other fearsome storm and can cover kilometres just in a stride. Nothing stands in its way. It brings down everything including houses in its path. Those who must obstruct Aziza must invite the obo (native doctor) to offer a sacrifice that would be accepted for Aziza to stride over built-up areas without wrecking destruc-tion. This is where we are with Tinubu. If you fail to uproot the Iroko when it is unknown, you will take sacrifices to it when it becomes known and established.

WHEN former vice president, Atiku Abubakar led other political leaders to the hilltop residence of former President Olusegun Obasanjo in Abeokuta last Tuesday, both parties dismissed insinuations that it was part of the grand plot to gang up against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The visit was kept as a top secret by Obasanjo and his visitors. Yet, it was not the first time the former president and Atiku would meet despite a running battle over political differences. On Atiku’s delegation were other members of the Obasanjo days in office as president, including Lyle Imoke, Aminu Tambuwal and Senator Ningi.

But to underline the strategic meeting, the visitors met for more than two hours behind closed doors ostensibly to shut out the likely prying eyes of a third party and the usually nosy media always lurking around the precinct of Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential library located in the Ogun State capital.  Neither the visitors nor their host was willing to give details of the ‘frank discussion’ despite their individual schism against the current administration. All they told the expectant Nigerian public about the outcome of the meeting was that it had nothing to do with politics and the emerging trends towards the next general election. However, details scooped from close aides to the two camps revealed that the discussion was on the necessity for the opposition to evolve a strategy to oust the APC from power through the 2027 presidential election. Close associates and aides to the visitors and the former president said the mission of the team was report back to him the extent of the job done on the assignment to mobilize leaders across the geopolitical zone to push out the APC in 2027. Since the session was meant for the feedback, therefore, the visitors did most of the talking, while the former president kept a near studied silence apparently to comprehend, regurgitate, dissect and digest the message, the messengers and the overall bottom line of the exclusive gathering.                  

Atiku as the leader of the team, with the mandate of others involved in the planned coalition, gave Obasanjo the full account of their actions, consultations, discussions and decisions on the project. It should be recalled that Atiku was among the key speakers at the recent national conference held in Abuja where the main stakeholders pooh-poohed the APC administration and canvassed for a united front by the opposition to confront the ruling party in the next general election. Thus, the Abeokuta meeting with the former president was apparently in furtherance of the fact that Obasanjo was regarded as the de facto leader of the movement which some of the leaders, however, tactically claimed is designed to save Nigeria.  

Sources close to the visitors quoted the ex Nigerian leader to have said that the mission of the team was to give him feedback on the consultations and meetings of the forces mobilizing to produce the coalition against the APC. Obasanjo told one of his close confidants after the meeting that the visit had nothing to do with the speculated renewed presidential ambition of his former vice. The former Nigerian leader expatiated that the visit was aimed at the collaboration efforts to move Nigeria forward, and not with the “presidential bid of any individual’ so far. 

Obasanjo was reportedly categorical that Atiku did not come to discuss his touted ‘ambition’ with him, but to render a detailed report on what they are doing to get a coalition of forces without anyone’s ambition but only how to move Nigeria forward.”  Therefore, he said his job on the occasion was to listen attentively and not necessarily to interject while the team made its submission.”            

Over the years, the former military head of state and later civilian president has been the arrowhead of past efforts aimed at assembling influential politicians, activists and groups of professionals to form a third force with the capacity and network to displace both the PDP and the APC from power. It began after he angrily openly declared his frustration with the PDP.  Recall that about seven years ago, Obasanjo publicly declared that he was quitting politics to assume the role of an elder statesman and adviser to other gladiators. He publicly tore his membership card of the party  into shreds at the height of his disagreement with some elements in the PDP. But the former Nigerian leader has found it extremely difficult to detach himself from partisan politics, despite his promise to be apolitical. Almost in every election cycle, he has tried to play the pivotal role of a fulcrum, rallying his admirers to set an agenda.  Determined to make himself as the rallying force in 2015, Obasanjo became the arrowhead of a Third Force to challenge his former party, PDP and the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2019 general election.  Having been courted by the leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Obasanjo led the gladiators of other fringe political parties, as well as pressure groups in mobilising across board for the Third Force.

His choice as the third Force for the 2023 elections was the Labour Party (LP). He had the backing of mass based ethnic nationality organisations in the three geopolitical zones in the southern part of the country as well as the Middle Belt. The two Nigerian leaders and other personalities involved in the Third Force hinged their decision that the Igbo should produce a president based on equity.  Obasanjo practically became the face of the campaign of the candidate of the LP, Mr Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, for the presidential election. 

Obasanjo is believed to remain passionate about the agenda. His close associates and confidants claim he is still committed to the cause of power shift to the South-East as leading politicians and groups intensify plans to forge alliances ahead of the 2027 elections.

APC

The national chairman of the APC, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje has been consistent in creating ripples. He throws bomb shells with the attendant eddies in the ranks of the opposition politicians. He has declared that his party was poised to capture Anambra and Osun states after overrunning Edo and Ondo states in the governorship elections. He threw another stone on Tuesday that the North should wait for 2031 to produce the president of the country as the immediate past President Muhammadu Buhari, from Katsina State, served for two terms of four years each. 

LND:  Yemi Osinbajo

Some forces are rooting for former Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo. He is believed to have the savvy to confront Tinubu. He is said to have a better understanding and appreciation of the president, having worked closely with him as former governor of Lagos State as commissioner for Justice and Attorney General. But some elements claim that Osinbajo may not be able to deliver a block from the South-West to the alliance.

Jonathan is believed to have the following in the South to match the incumbent. Another option is to bring back former President Goodluck Jonathan. Some leaders of the alliance claim he would not be a hard sell in the south because of his network of friends and structures that brought and sustained in office during his first coming as president. It is assumed that certain issues bordering on regional cleavages, ethnic background and other primordial factors could sway popular views in his favour, especially in the South-South and the South-East, which are considered as predominantly pro-opposition parties. 

Rotimi Amaechi

Former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi is regarded as one politician that should be accommodated in the planned alliance. The former governor of Rivers State is already an arrowhead in the movement. He is said to possess logistics that could be deployed to match the incumbent when the chips are down. But they are concerned that he lacks the clout and machinery to run for the presidency. He might have the capacity to deliver sufficient votes of Rivers State due to the influence of the Minister of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, his once close ally now believed to be fully in control of the PDP structures at the federal level and Rivers State.

Malami and El-Rufai are among the arrowheads of the change agenda. Their seeming aloofness to the activities in the ruling APC is seen as a factor that endears the group. The duo is part of the preeminent forces prior to the APC presidential primary of 2023. 

Atiku and 2027 Presidency

Former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s decision on the ongoing effort to concretise the coalition is critical. His utterances, countenance and body language after his last unsuccessful bid to become president have given the impression that he could take another shot at the exalted office of the President. But there are insinuations that his camp may acquiesce to propositions that he has a rethink on the possibility of throwing his hat into the rings for the seventh time. Speculations are rife in the circle of the leaders of the coalition about his willingness to lower the guard so that the movement can achieve its ultimate goal of creating an upset in the 2027 elections.

North and APC

Conversations among the opposition chieftains are that there is a swell anger from the North against the APC administration. The groundswell of anger centres on the fallouts of the economic policies of the government, with the North perceived as the most vulnerable. Thus, some forces are latching on the perceived unfavourable disposition of the North towards the administration. The calculation by the opposition is to weaken the APC such that it will not be able to achieve its electoral feat in parts of the North in the 2023 elections.

Kano votes

Kano is the epicenter of North-West politics. The presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in the 2023 presidential election, Senator Musa Kwankwaso is working to hold tenaciously to the structure of the state after his party humbled the APC. Therefore, he is reportedly not too keen on completely submitting or collapsing his structure into the planned coalition. Instead, his resolve is to run again for the presidency, and not to play a second fiddle to any candidate in any form of realignment or alliance for the 2027 elections. His recent visit to a former governor of Osun State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is part of his strategies to synchronize his agenda with those who are considered as politicians with pedigree and clout to make serious incursions into the geopolitical zones in the southern part of the country.   

South-East/South-South politics

Regardless of the fact that the APC controls two states in the South-East and one in the South-South, the two zones have the strong presence of the leading opposition parties. The perception informs the calculations among the elements involved in the coalition that former President Goodluck Jonathan should be a preferred choice to checkmate APC in 2027. He is considered as a real counterforce against the incumbency factor based on the grounds of regional cleavages, ethnic attachment, alliances and individual pedigrees.  However, there is a push by another force for Mr Peter Obi as candidate because of the potential of his candidacy to draw a large chunk of the Igbo votes in the South-East and their kinsmen in parts of the six states in the South-South. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo is said to be uncompromising in his declaration that the Igbo deserve to produce a president in the name of equity and justice and fairness. 

[Tribune]