WHEN former vice president, Atiku Abubakar led other political leaders to the hilltop residence of former President Olusegun Obasanjo in Abeokuta last Tuesday, both parties dismissed insinuations that it was part of the grand plot to gang up against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The visit was kept as a top secret by Obasanjo and his visitors. Yet, it was not the first time the former president and Atiku would meet despite a running battle over political differences. On Atiku’s delegation were other members of the Obasanjo days in office as president, including Lyle Imoke, Aminu Tambuwal and Senator Ningi.

But to underline the strategic meeting, the visitors met for more than two hours behind closed doors ostensibly to shut out the likely prying eyes of a third party and the usually nosy media always lurking around the precinct of Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential library located in the Ogun State capital.  Neither the visitors nor their host was willing to give details of the ‘frank discussion’ despite their individual schism against the current administration. All they told the expectant Nigerian public about the outcome of the meeting was that it had nothing to do with politics and the emerging trends towards the next general election. However, details scooped from close aides to the two camps revealed that the discussion was on the necessity for the opposition to evolve a strategy to oust the APC from power through the 2027 presidential election. Close associates and aides to the visitors and the former president said the mission of the team was report back to him the extent of the job done on the assignment to mobilize leaders across the geopolitical zone to push out the APC in 2027. Since the session was meant for the feedback, therefore, the visitors did most of the talking, while the former president kept a near studied silence apparently to comprehend, regurgitate, dissect and digest the message, the messengers and the overall bottom line of the exclusive gathering.                  

Atiku as the leader of the team, with the mandate of others involved in the planned coalition, gave Obasanjo the full account of their actions, consultations, discussions and decisions on the project. It should be recalled that Atiku was among the key speakers at the recent national conference held in Abuja where the main stakeholders pooh-poohed the APC administration and canvassed for a united front by the opposition to confront the ruling party in the next general election. Thus, the Abeokuta meeting with the former president was apparently in furtherance of the fact that Obasanjo was regarded as the de facto leader of the movement which some of the leaders, however, tactically claimed is designed to save Nigeria.  

Sources close to the visitors quoted the ex Nigerian leader to have said that the mission of the team was to give him feedback on the consultations and meetings of the forces mobilizing to produce the coalition against the APC. Obasanjo told one of his close confidants after the meeting that the visit had nothing to do with the speculated renewed presidential ambition of his former vice. The former Nigerian leader expatiated that the visit was aimed at the collaboration efforts to move Nigeria forward, and not with the “presidential bid of any individual’ so far. 

Obasanjo was reportedly categorical that Atiku did not come to discuss his touted ‘ambition’ with him, but to render a detailed report on what they are doing to get a coalition of forces without anyone’s ambition but only how to move Nigeria forward.”  Therefore, he said his job on the occasion was to listen attentively and not necessarily to interject while the team made its submission.”            

Over the years, the former military head of state and later civilian president has been the arrowhead of past efforts aimed at assembling influential politicians, activists and groups of professionals to form a third force with the capacity and network to displace both the PDP and the APC from power. It began after he angrily openly declared his frustration with the PDP.  Recall that about seven years ago, Obasanjo publicly declared that he was quitting politics to assume the role of an elder statesman and adviser to other gladiators. He publicly tore his membership card of the party  into shreds at the height of his disagreement with some elements in the PDP. But the former Nigerian leader has found it extremely difficult to detach himself from partisan politics, despite his promise to be apolitical. Almost in every election cycle, he has tried to play the pivotal role of a fulcrum, rallying his admirers to set an agenda.  Determined to make himself as the rallying force in 2015, Obasanjo became the arrowhead of a Third Force to challenge his former party, PDP and the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2019 general election.  Having been courted by the leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Obasanjo led the gladiators of other fringe political parties, as well as pressure groups in mobilising across board for the Third Force.

His choice as the third Force for the 2023 elections was the Labour Party (LP). He had the backing of mass based ethnic nationality organisations in the three geopolitical zones in the southern part of the country as well as the Middle Belt. The two Nigerian leaders and other personalities involved in the Third Force hinged their decision that the Igbo should produce a president based on equity.  Obasanjo practically became the face of the campaign of the candidate of the LP, Mr Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, for the presidential election. 

Obasanjo is believed to remain passionate about the agenda. His close associates and confidants claim he is still committed to the cause of power shift to the South-East as leading politicians and groups intensify plans to forge alliances ahead of the 2027 elections.

APC

The national chairman of the APC, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje has been consistent in creating ripples. He throws bomb shells with the attendant eddies in the ranks of the opposition politicians. He has declared that his party was poised to capture Anambra and Osun states after overrunning Edo and Ondo states in the governorship elections. He threw another stone on Tuesday that the North should wait for 2031 to produce the president of the country as the immediate past President Muhammadu Buhari, from Katsina State, served for two terms of four years each. 

LND:  Yemi Osinbajo

Some forces are rooting for former Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo. He is believed to have the savvy to confront Tinubu. He is said to have a better understanding and appreciation of the president, having worked closely with him as former governor of Lagos State as commissioner for Justice and Attorney General. But some elements claim that Osinbajo may not be able to deliver a block from the South-West to the alliance.

Jonathan is believed to have the following in the South to match the incumbent. Another option is to bring back former President Goodluck Jonathan. Some leaders of the alliance claim he would not be a hard sell in the south because of his network of friends and structures that brought and sustained in office during his first coming as president. It is assumed that certain issues bordering on regional cleavages, ethnic background and other primordial factors could sway popular views in his favour, especially in the South-South and the South-East, which are considered as predominantly pro-opposition parties. 

Rotimi Amaechi

Former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi is regarded as one politician that should be accommodated in the planned alliance. The former governor of Rivers State is already an arrowhead in the movement. He is said to possess logistics that could be deployed to match the incumbent when the chips are down. But they are concerned that he lacks the clout and machinery to run for the presidency. He might have the capacity to deliver sufficient votes of Rivers State due to the influence of the Minister of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, his once close ally now believed to be fully in control of the PDP structures at the federal level and Rivers State.

Malami and El-Rufai are among the arrowheads of the change agenda. Their seeming aloofness to the activities in the ruling APC is seen as a factor that endears the group. The duo is part of the preeminent forces prior to the APC presidential primary of 2023. 

Atiku and 2027 Presidency

Former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s decision on the ongoing effort to concretise the coalition is critical. His utterances, countenance and body language after his last unsuccessful bid to become president have given the impression that he could take another shot at the exalted office of the President. But there are insinuations that his camp may acquiesce to propositions that he has a rethink on the possibility of throwing his hat into the rings for the seventh time. Speculations are rife in the circle of the leaders of the coalition about his willingness to lower the guard so that the movement can achieve its ultimate goal of creating an upset in the 2027 elections.

North and APC

Conversations among the opposition chieftains are that there is a swell anger from the North against the APC administration. The groundswell of anger centres on the fallouts of the economic policies of the government, with the North perceived as the most vulnerable. Thus, some forces are latching on the perceived unfavourable disposition of the North towards the administration. The calculation by the opposition is to weaken the APC such that it will not be able to achieve its electoral feat in parts of the North in the 2023 elections.

Kano votes

Kano is the epicenter of North-West politics. The presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in the 2023 presidential election, Senator Musa Kwankwaso is working to hold tenaciously to the structure of the state after his party humbled the APC. Therefore, he is reportedly not too keen on completely submitting or collapsing his structure into the planned coalition. Instead, his resolve is to run again for the presidency, and not to play a second fiddle to any candidate in any form of realignment or alliance for the 2027 elections. His recent visit to a former governor of Osun State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is part of his strategies to synchronize his agenda with those who are considered as politicians with pedigree and clout to make serious incursions into the geopolitical zones in the southern part of the country.   

South-East/South-South politics

Regardless of the fact that the APC controls two states in the South-East and one in the South-South, the two zones have the strong presence of the leading opposition parties. The perception informs the calculations among the elements involved in the coalition that former President Goodluck Jonathan should be a preferred choice to checkmate APC in 2027. He is considered as a real counterforce against the incumbency factor based on the grounds of regional cleavages, ethnic attachment, alliances and individual pedigrees.  However, there is a push by another force for Mr Peter Obi as candidate because of the potential of his candidacy to draw a large chunk of the Igbo votes in the South-East and their kinsmen in parts of the six states in the South-South. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo is said to be uncompromising in his declaration that the Igbo deserve to produce a president in the name of equity and justice and fairness. 

[Tribune]