On March 6, 2025, chaos erupted at the Ikeja Electricity Distribution Company (DISCO) in Lagos when a group of Nigerian Air Force personnel stormed the premises. Their reason? The power supply to their base had been disconnected. The attack, reminiscent of a military-style raid, left DISCO staff in panic and confusion.

This incident occurred at a time when Nigerians were still processing the news that the country’s power generation had increased from an embarrassingly low 4,000 megawatts—woefully inadequate for a nation of over 200 million people—to 5,800 megawatts. Coincidentally, following the assault on Ikeja DISCO, the national electricity grid suffered yet another collapse on March 7, 2025, plunging the nation into darkness.

Some conspiracy theorists speculate that the grid failure may have been an act of silent protest by electricity workers, sympathizing with their assaulted colleagues. Others point to the alarming pattern: the March 7 collapse was the third nationwide blackout in just three months, with the previous one occurring on February 12. A look at historical data paints an even grimmer picture—Nigeria experienced 12 system failures last year, averaging one per month, while over the past decade, the grid has collapsed more than 100 times, often leaving the country without power for hours or even days.

The Root Cause of Nigeria’s Power Crisis

At the heart of this crisis lies an aging electricity infrastructure inherited from the colonial era, now severely outdated. To illustrate the severity of the situation, consider this analogy:

A friend of mine owned a battered Volkswagen Beetle while studying at the University of Benin. The car was so old and unreliable that it wouldn’t start with just the turn of a key—it needed to be pushed to get moving. Aware of this, my friend always parked on a slope, ensuring he could start the car without help. This strategy allowed him to keep using the car, even though it was far from ideal. However, if an unsuspecting driver parked it on flat ground, they would be stranded without assistance.

Nigeria’s power system is like that Volkswagen Beetle—an outdated, fragile infrastructure barely kept running by experienced operators who know its weaknesses. For decades, these professionals have managed to sustain the grid at a suboptimal level, much like my friend kept his car running. However, when a “new driver”—in this case, the Minister of Power, Mr. Adebayo Adelabu—attempts to overload the system without addressing its weaknesses, the result is frequent, catastrophic failures. Experts have warned that the transmission infrastructure is too fragile to handle increased power loads, yet these warnings have been ignored, leading to repeated grid collapses.

A Century of Neglect

Nigeria’s electricity system has suffered from a lack of investment, maintenance, and modernization since colonial times. Infrastructure that should be displayed in a museum as a relic of the past remains the backbone of the nation’s power supply. For nearly a century, successive governments have failed to replace this antiquated system, leaving Nigeria trapped in a cycle of power shortages and economic stagnation.

If Nigeria is to escape this crisis, urgent reforms and large-scale investments in modern electricity infrastructure are needed. Without these changes, the country will remain stuck with a failing system—much like a driver trying to start a broken-down car on level ground, hoping for a miracle.

Why Nigeria’s Power Supply Remains Unstable 65 Years After Independence

More than six decades after gaining independence, Nigeria continues to struggle with an unreliable power supply, largely due to its outdated electricity infrastructure. The country’s national grid dates back to the colonial era, with its foundations laid as early as 1914, when the northern and southern protectorates were amalgamated. Despite the passage of time, the power sector has seen little progress, particularly in the transmission segment, which remains in a state of disrepair.

The reason for this is rooted in the flawed privatization of the power sector. While the generation (GENCOs) and distribution (DISCOs) segments were transferred to private ownership, the transmission network remained under government control through the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). As a result, while private investors have upgraded parts of the generation and distribution infrastructure, the transmission system has remained stagnant due to bureaucratic inefficiencies and lack of investment.

A Flawed Privatization Process

The unbundling of Nigeria’s power sector began in 2005 under President Olusegun Obasanjo, with Vice President Atiku Abubakar leading the initiative and Nasir El-Rufai overseeing it as Director General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE). The process continued under President Goodluck Jonathan, who, in 2013, further liberalized the sector by selling power assets to private investors.

However, political conflicts—particularly the fallout between Obasanjo and Abubakar towards the end of their tenure—disrupted what could have been a successful transition. Unlike the telecommunications sector, which attracted major global players like MTN and Econet during its privatization, the power sector was largely taken over by local businessmen with limited financial and technical expertise. Instead of industry giants like Siemens or General Electric, Nigeria’s electricity assets ended up in the hands of investors who lacked the capacity to revamp the sector.

Limited Success and Persistent Challenges

A decade after privatization, the expected improvements in power supply have not materialized. While a few DISCOs—such as Ikeja, Eko, and Abuja—have made some progress, many others struggle to remain viable. On the other hand, the generation sector has seen notable improvements, with output increasing from 4,000 megawatts to 15,000 megawatts due to investments in upgrading old power plants and new entrants like Azure Power in Edo State and Geometric Power in Abia State.

However, the biggest bottleneck remains the transmission network. Despite the increased power generation, only a fraction of the electricity produced reaches end-users due to the outdated and insufficient transmission infrastructure, which is at least 50 years old. The inefficiency of TCN—still under government control—has prevented the electricity sector from functioning optimally.

A Better Approach to Power Sector Reform

Nigeria’s electricity privatization model deviates from global best practices. In many countries, the entire power supply chain—generation, transmission, and distribution—is sold to a single investor, ensuring integrated operations and accountability. In contrast, Nigeria split the sector into three separate entities, each with different operators who have varying capacities and resources. This fragmented approach has resulted in inefficiencies, with TCN becoming the weak link in the value chain.

To address this issue, Nigeria must either privatize the transmission segment to attract serious investors or adopt a more integrated approach to power sector management. Without these reforms, the country will continue to experience erratic power supply, regardless of how much electricity is generated.

Strengthening Nigeria’s Power Sector: Lessons from China and India

Nigeria’s electricity supply chain—spanning generation, transmission, and distribution—has proven to be weak, particularly at the points where these three segments intersect. This situation can be likened to a relay race where the baton handoff between runners is frequently botched, leading to inefficiencies and failures.

In more advanced economies, power companies are typically granted exclusive market zones where they generate, transmit, and distribute electricity seamlessly. However, Nigeria adopted a different approach, similar to the telecom sector, where multiple operators were licensed to handle different aspects of the power supply chain in an interconnected system. This model, while theoretically workable, has not delivered the expected results due to poor coordination and weak infrastructure.

To understand the depth of the problem, Nigeria’s power sector can be compared to a river that began to be polluted in 2005, became heavily contaminated by 2013, and now, in 2025, requires urgent purification. Instead of continuous complaints about the failures in the sector, it is time to take decisive action to remove the barriers hindering the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. Industrialization—a key driver of national development—depends on solving this crisis.

Learning from China and India

A possible way forward is to draw lessons from China and India, two countries that were once in similar power supply crises but successfully transformed into industrial powerhouses.

China’s Strategy for Electrification

China tackled its electricity challenges through a multi-pronged strategy, integrating electrification into its national development plans as part of its broader poverty eradication strategy. Key steps included:

 1. Infrastructure Development: The “Infrastructure to Every Village Project” ensured that electricity, roads, water, and telecoms reached rural areas.

 2. Stakeholder Coordination: The central government led policy formulation and investment, while provincial governments handled implementation. This coordination was critical in expanding and upgrading the national grid.

 3. Renewable Energy Investments: China aggressively pursued clean energy, setting a target for non-fossil energy to contribute 20% of its total energy consumption by 2025. It built mega renewable energy projects, smart grids, and hybrid high-voltage transmission lines to balance power supply across regions.

These efforts culminated in China achieving full electrification by 2015, positioning the country as the world’s leading industrial hub.

India’s Path to Energy Security

Like Nigeria, India was once a British colony and faced similar electricity shortages. However, through targeted reforms and investments, India overcame its power crisis and became an economic powerhouse. The key measures taken included:

 1. Institutional Reforms:

 • Establishment of Electricity Regulatory Commissions (ERCs) to ensure fair competition and consumer protection.

 • Creation of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) to coordinate the national power system.

 2. Policy Reforms:

 • Electricity Act (2003): Unbundled state electricity boards, promoted private sector participation, and established a national grid.

 • National Electricity Policy (2005): Aimed at universal electricity access, energy efficiency, and reliable power supply.

 • Renewable Energy Policy: Set ambitious targets for non-fossil fuel energy sources, aiming for 40% of installed capacity by 2030.

 3. Infrastructure Investments:

 • Expansion of Power Generation: Increased capacity from 112 GW in 2005 to over 400 GW by 2022, focusing on renewable energy.

 • National Grid Development: Strengthened the grid to ensure efficient power transmission across the country.

 • Smart Grid Initiatives: Modernized grid infrastructure, improving energy efficiency and customer experience.

 4. Financial Incentives:

 • Viability Gap Funding (VGF): Government support for renewable energy projects to make them financially viable.

 • Tax Incentives: Encouraged private sector investment in the power sector.

 • Low-Cost Funding: Provided affordable financing for power sector projects through institutions like the Power Finance Corporation.

By implementing these measures, India scaled up its energy production from 190 GW to 400 GW, transforming itself into a global manufacturing hub. The success of its “Make in India” initiative underscores the role of stable electricity in industrial growth.

The Way Forward for Nigeria

Nigeria can no longer afford to lag in electricity reform. The success stories of China and India prove that targeted policies, infrastructure investments, and strong regulatory frameworks can turn an electricity-deficient nation into an industrial powerhouse. If Nigeria adopts a similar approach—prioritizing electrification in national development plans, streamlining regulatory frameworks, and attracting serious investors—it can finally break free from its chronic power shortages and achieve long-overdue industrialization.

Nigeria has much to learn from both China and India, particularly the latter, which successfully leveraged World Bank funding to address its electricity challenges—something Nigeria has attempted but with less commitment.

A closer examination of Nigeria’s energy crisis reveals a troubling reality. Despite the country’s numerous political and administrative reforms over the years, the electricity sector has remained largely unchanged since colonial times. While Nigeria has evolved from its amalgamation in 1914 to independence in 1960 and has since expanded from three regions to 36 states, its electricity infrastructure remains centralized and outdated.

This stagnation is evident in the persistent lack of investment in critical areas, particularly transmission. Given this reality, it is unrealistic for Nigerians to expect stable and adequate power supply when the sector remains underfunded and structurally inefficient. For instance, the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, recently revealed that power generation companies (GENCOs) are owed approximately ₦350 billion. This financial strain threatens the viability of the sector, which depends on consistent investment to sustain operations and generate returns for private investors. Many of these investors rely on bank loans, and if they default, it could trigger a broader financial crisis with severe economic consequences.

The challenges extend to the distribution companies (DISCOs), where workers face significant risks while delivering electricity to end users. A recent case in Lagos saw officers from the Nigerian Air Force storming Ikeja Electricity Distribution Company’s premises after the company disconnected power to the air force base due to an unpaid ₦4 billion debt. This reflects a broader problem, as many government agencies and military installations across the country regularly default on their electricity bills. Even the Aso Rock Presidential Villa and several state governments have been threatened with disconnection due to outstanding payments.

This persistent non-payment culture stems from an outdated mindset in the public sector, where officials still view electricity as a government-provided service rather than a privatized utility that requires payment. The 2013 privatization of the power sector failed to address this issue, leading to ongoing financial distress and operational inefficiencies.

Addressing these challenges requires significant structural reforms. Unlike generation and distribution, which are privately owned, the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) remains government-controlled. This presents an opportunity for privatization, allowing for a more integrated and efficient electricity supply chain. Furthermore, of the 11 DISCOs operating in Nigeria, only three are financially viable, while the remaining eight have effectively been taken over by the government. A logical next step would be to merge the viable DISCOs with strong GENCOs and allow them to acquire transmission infrastructure in their respective zones, creating a model similar to those in advanced economies.

This restructuring will be difficult but necessary. As the saying goes, “No pain, no gain.” To succeed, Nigeria’s leadership must embrace bold reforms. Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum once said, “An easy life doesn’t make men, nor does it build nations. Challenges make men, and it is these men who build nations.” Nigeria’s energy crisis demands decisive action.

President Bola Tinubu should take inspiration from the transformative approaches of China and India by declaring a state of emergency in the electricity sector. These countries recognized that reliable power was the foundation of industrial growth and took radical steps to achieve it.

As Ernest Hemingway put it, “Go all the way with it. Do not back off. For once, go all the way with what matters.” For Nigeria, nothing matters more at this moment than ensuring abundant electricity supply—because without it, the nation’s industrial ambitions will remain unfulfilled.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.