You don’t have the cards”- President Trump to President Zelensky, February 2025

Imagine Russia deciding to extend its Sahelian sphere of influence beyond Republic of Niger, by claiming some contiguous parts of Nigeria? Disturbing as this hypothetical situation sounds, it is the geopolitical reality of contemporary international relations that countries such as Nigeria have to start planning for, with the new presidential leadership of the United States (U.S.). The April 2, 2025 ‘Liberation Day’ tariff imposition on over 80 countries, and policy proposals that eliminate most of the State Department’s Africa operations, further accentuate this. That President Zelensky of Ukraine was reminded about his lack of ‘cards to play’ during his February 28, 2025 eventful Oval Office visit, and the prospect that a potential successor could become U.S. President for 8 years from 2029, and possibly consolidate the Trumpian ‘cards approach’ to international relations- potentially for U.S’s benefit, is a prospect that Nigeria should take seriously and plan for, to ensure that Africa’s most populous country has some ‘cards to play’ in the emerging international relations order.    

For proper context, these geopolitical events and situations are preceded by the international rules-based order (RBO), established under U.S. leadership in the 1940’s, during and after the end of World War II, whereby international relations have largely been, rule-based, structured, and largely liberal. Though the Cold War began shortly after the establishment of the United Nations (UN) in 1945 with a West-East divide, the world has been able to prevent another global conflict, due to the leadership provided largely by the U.S., as the global policeman maintaining international order through the RBO. The U.S. as part of the RBO supported the establishment of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the European Union (EU), and funded the ‘Marshal Plan’- the world’s largest aid program for the reconstruction of Europe after World War II.

But with the U.S. Vice President’s speech at Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2025, his leaked chats in March 2025 where he stated ‘I just hate bailing Europe out again’, the U.S. imposing tariffs on traditional allies such as Canada, Mexico and the EU, the uncharacteristic support for Russia against Ukraine during a UN vote in February 2025, threats to annex Greenland from its NATO ally Denmark, threats to annex Canada as the 51st of the U.S. state, as well as the February 2025 statement by U.S. President that the ‘European Union was formed to screw the United States’, it becomes obvious that there is a dismantling of the 8 decades-old international RBO, which requires non-emotive geopolitical responses by countries. These are alongside plans for a potential ‘Mar-a Lago Accord’ to change the Bretton Woods part of the international RBO, as floated by Stephen Miran, Chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers.

In the words of Sir Alex Younger, former head of MI6, the foreign intelligence service of the United Kingdom (UK) on February 19, 2025, “I think we are in a new era where, by and large, international relations aren’t going to be determined by rules and multilateral institutions. They’re going to be determined by strong men and deals”.

For Canada and its Prime Minister Mike Carney, the contemporary geopolitical changes require more Canadian ownership of its defense capabilities and less dependence on U.S. In Carney’s words, ‘We have to look out for ourselves’. The EU, a traditional U.S. ally has gotten the memo on the need to look out for themselves and has unveiled somewhat concrete plans ‘to have the cards to play’ within contemporary geopolitics. This is exemplified by both the ‘ReArm Europe Plan’ unveiled in early March 2025, and the ‘White Paper European Parliament resolution of March 12, 2025, on the White Paper on the Future of European Defence (2025/2565(RSP).

The ReArm Europe Plan worth $860 billion, was presented by Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen, President of the European Commission (EC) on March 6, 2025. The plan proposes $860 billion from 2025-2029 to significantly increase expenditures in defence capabilities by EU member states. This is a significant increase in EU defense expenditure, rising from $147 billion in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, to $355 billion in 2024. These European defence policy plans, which will lead to the restarting of some defence manufacturing capabilities that had been discontinued since the end of the Cold War, are centered on seven key critical capability projects, covering areas such as military mobility, drones and counter-drone systems, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, cyber and electronic warfare, artillery systems and air & missile defence.

The continental defence white paper aims to address defence sector capability issues, industrial competitiveness and investment needs. It also aims to design a comprehensive plan for EU defence integration, increase intra-EU collaboration in industrial, innovation, procurement and production issues, reduce external dependencies in defence procurement, strengthen the EU’s ability to respond to threats- taking into consideration Russia’s continuing aggression in Ukraine, plus evolving geopolitical challenges and increased military capabilities of other global actors.

Another stand out geopolitical change in Europe due to contemporary geopolitics is the increased rearming of Germany, at a pace not seen since the end of World War II. That the parliamentary vote at the Bundestag on March 18, 2025, and at Bundesrat on March 21, 2025, now relaxes certain economic rules to enable a significant increase in defence spending by billions of euros, passed without raising geopolitical eyebrows, further exemplifies contemporary geopolitical changes in the international environment- something that would have been unheard of after World War II. Furthermore, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting had in February 2025, indicated that he will explore the possibility of the UK and France extending their nuclear military protection over Germany, a request that ideally should have been made to the U.S.

These geopolitical changes now brings us back to the hypothetical situation about ‘cards’ Nigeria could play in such hypothetical situation of Russia claiming parts of Nigeria’s North West and North East territories that border Republic of Niger, due for example to a hypothetical discomfort with Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) policies, such as ongoing efforts to strengthen the capabilities of the ECOWAS Standby Force (ESF)- similar to how Russia justifies its invasion of Ukraine on the increased expansion of NATO. Another example of what could have been a spark for such event was the December 2024 interview by Republic of Niger’s military ruler, whereby he claimed that Nigeria was colluding with France to undermine his country’s security, economy, agriculture and stability- which Nigeria strongly denies. Since Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger began moves that culminated in announcing their exit from ECOWAS in 2024, they have established the Alliance for Sahel States (AES) and strengthened military cooperation with Russia.

Under what is increasingly the previous international RBO, the cards Nigeria could play in such hypothetical situation of Russia invading parts of the country, would have been to defend itself, while also trusting that countries such as the U.S. will provide additional support in defence of international RBO. However, contemporary geopolitics suggests that such support for RBO may not be readily available, as Nigeria may rather be part of a brokered ‘deal’, whereby it will have to stake some of its mineral resources to receive any support. It is such potential uncomfortable geopolitical outcomes that Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi, former foreign minister and one of Africa’s leading foreign policy wonks projected in January 2025, thereby advising Nigeria’s President Tinubu to ‘avoid’ President Trump. While Tinubu has done his best to avoid Trump, the recent 14 percent  tariffs imposed on Nigeria during Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ speech on April 2, 2025, as well as the April 7, 2025 official complaint by the U.S Trade Representative (USTR)  about the Nigeria’s ‘unfair trade practices’ which include an import ban on 25 items from the U.S., show that it is not possible to totally ‘avoid’ Trump. Also, the sudden scrapping of USAID, where Nigeria was significant beneficiary, amounting to $1.02 billion in 2023, has already affected Nigeria.

Given this situation, as well as the wisdom in avoiding confrontations with the U.S., what feasible strategic geopolitical approaches can Nigeria adopt in line with geopolitical changes in international RBO- with the aim to have the required ‘cards’ to play?

For Nigeria, there are no easy answers or easy pathways. However, the theory on how domestic conditions affect a country’s approach to international relations comes to mind. But in a bit more explicit terms, an approach to governance that truly prioritizes science and technology development in consonance with certain foreign policy alignments, may provide a pathway to ensuring that Nigeria has the cards to play.

On the development of science and technology, there has to be a reclassification of the Federal Ministry of Innovation, Science and Technology (FMIST) to a ‘Grade A’ ministry. In 2025, the federal government allocated N69.2 billion ($30 million) to the ministry, for both capital and overhead costs. This represents just 0.0011 percent of the N54.99 trillion budget for 2025. The reclassification provides the fulcrum through which the FMIST begins to receive significantly more budgetary provisions, from the current 0.0011 percent to a minimum of 5 percent of each year’s budget. Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Christopher Musa, has also been consistent on the need for increased domestic manufacturing of military technology. This should lead to a policy synergy between increased STI funding and military technology- which subsequently provides Nigeria the cards to play in contemporary geopolitics. The Defence industry under Gen. Musa has been matching its positions with actions, the most recent being the launch of locally manufactured attack drones and bombs by Briech UAS, the pioneer and largest indigenous manufacturer of attack drones and bombs in Nigeria and Africa, done in collaboration with Nigerian military.

The foreign policy part is to this technological feat is to follow through with the economic diplomacy initiative introduced into Nigeria’s foreign policy by Gen. Ike Nwachukwu, during his time as Nigeria’s Foreign Affairs Minister in 1980’s. Through this, products from Briech UAS are procured as part of the $860 billion ReArm Europe Plan, as Europe shores up its defence due to geopolitical changes in International RBO.  Revenue from such attack drones and bomb exports to Europe provides more revenue for the sustainable expansion of military and dual-purpose technology manufacturing in Nigeria. Such technological development facilitates the manufacturing of other goods and services such as routers, switches, cables, industrial machines and other ICT hardware for the development of other economic sectors, for enhanced economic complexity.

This approach towards military technology manufacturing will address recent complaints by the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) chief that $11 million is required for retrofitting a single attack helicopter, and NAF’s inability to procure spares to service attack helicopters when funds are available due to geopolitical events. The proposed new policy framework towards domestic technology will require a continuation of the approach in 2016, where Nigerian company Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing (IVM) was able to manufacture spares for the maintenance of certain NAF fighter jets, which enabled Nigeria to sustain its fight against counter-insurgency operations at a time NAF was unable to procure spares from foreign companies. The situation demands a medium-to-long term R&D contract and partnership arrangement with domestic companies such as IVM, whereby within four years, most of these helicopters can be substantially retrofitted in Nigeria, to support sustainable NAF operations, and provide Nigeria with geopolitical cards.

Still on the geopolitical front and synergies with practical economic opportunities, the recent call in April 2025 by Andy Liu, Chief of Taiwan Mission in Nigeria, for President Tinubu’s consent to renewal of the 1994 bilateral Agreement for Investment Protection and Promotion (IPPA) provides opportunities for more Nigerian economic and geopolitical cards. Liu in his reminder, has stressed that ‘Taiwan is willing to offer technological expertise to help harness Nigeria’s abundant resources in a mutually beneficial partnership’, and that the IPPA renewal will encourage Taiwanese investment in Nigeria. Given that Taiwan and Taiwanese companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) fabricates over 80 percent of the most advanced semiconductors in the world, Liu’s emphasis that the IPPA renewal will encourage Taiwanese investment in Nigeria is therefore very worthwhile. Worthwhile because the Chinese government expresses reservations with countries that deepen relations with Taiwan. However, Nigeria should add semiconductor and advanced computing technology manufacturing in Nigeria as item in IPPA and renew the agreement.

While relations with China and Taiwan were last reviewed under President Obasanjo for Chinese support in infrastructure and space technology, there are a number of factors that can facilitate a new review in Nigeria-China relations, which enables Nigeria to enhance diplomatic relations with Taiwan, while still maintaining cordial relations which China. First is that the previous factors shaping the international RBO have changed, and China is seeking to retain access to markets, given that its trade tariffs with the U.S. are at all time high of 125 percent and 145 percent respectively. U.S. contribution to China’s total exports has declined from about 20 percent in 2017 to about 14 percent in 2024, as China is strategically seeking for new markets. Therefore, China will not want to jeopardize markets with potential for growth such as Nigeria, especially with its current tariffs wars with the U.S. China has in recent years, been reviewing its financial relations with African countries, by investing more in commercial public-private-partnerships. The more commercial approach is therefore a trend that Nigeria should explore in scaling relations with Taiwan.

Furthermore, as Africa’s most populous country, one of its largest economies, a BRICS partner member, and changes in international RBO, President Tinubu has the cards to negotiate with China in a way that enables Nigeria retain its cordial Chinese relations, while also deepening relations with Taiwan. Given that semiconductors are essentially the backbone for the manufacturing of technology equipment, consumer electronics and military technology, which Nigeria desires for geopolitical cards, it is therefore worthwhile for Nigeria to enhance relations with both China and Taiwan, for domestic advanced technology manufacturing in Nigeria- as contained in page 51 of President Tinubu’s ‘Renewed Hope’ policy document of October 2022, to be met.

The opportunity of using foreign policy cards to meet domestic political commitments is also a prospect highlighted by the Chief of Taiwan Mission in Nigeria. He had in his recent statement reminded Tinubu about a campaign pledge made in South Eastern Nigeria in November 2022, where he pledged to make South East Nigeria the Taiwan of Africa, if elected as President in 2023. Given Tinubu’s commendable establishment of the South East Development Commission (SEDC) in 2024, renewing the IPPA and also locating an additional Taiwan Mission in Enugu where the SEDC is located, helps in actualizing President Tinubu’s campaign promise to the geopolitical zone. Within the zone, state governors such as Peter Mbah of Enugu, Alex Otti of Abia and Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra have the private sector, economic and international experience to use the IPPA platform to facilitate semiconductor fabrication and technology manufacturing in Nigeria, before campaigns for the next election in 2027. The zone has skilled human resources, abundant gas reserves for energy, water sources, air and maritime transport facilities, and entrepreneurs skilled in capital mobilization, which are all essential for semiconductor and advanced computing manufacturing, which Taiwanese firms can locate in Nigeria.

Still on China, and the ‘One China’ policy that guides its perspective towards Taiwan as well as its foreign policy, the recent claims in early April 2025 by President Zelensky about capturing Chinese soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine show that China can be dynamic with its foreign policy, by supporting actions contrary to Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It therefore suggests that China will understand Nigeria’s need to balance its interactions with Taiwan. China can also choose to meet the competition provided by Taiwan, by extending its foreign policy review in Africa to include areas of computing technology, through supporting the expansion into Nigeria of some of its leading advanced computing manufacturing such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) for fabrication, Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE) for lithography, and HiSilicon for chip design.

China’s recent export restrictions on certain rare earth minerals used in tech manufacturing to the U.S. in response to U.S. trade policies, the inclusion of access to minerals as a condition to support Ukraine with defence support, and the March 2025 offer of access to minerals by the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to the U.S. in exchange for defence and economic support, demonstrate not only the role of minerals in the geopolitics of advanced tech manufacturing, but also the need for political reforms in Nigeria that provides sustainable political peace. This sustained peace prevents the possibility of resource endowed parts of Nigeria with security or political grievances offering minerals deals to leading global countries, in exchange for external military presence. Also, the government needs to support the current Raw Material Research and Development Council (RMRDC) Amendment Bill, which seeks to amend RMRDC Act 2022 and mandate 30 percent local processing of raw materials before export. If passed into law, it can lead to development of rare earth and critical minerals in the country, which can be strategically aligned to provide the inputs for advanced technology and semiconductors manufacturing, thereby providing Nigeria with additional geopolitical cards.

This push for minerals and technology development can find a fillip in some of the recent policies of the UK government. Though the UK officially withdrew from the EU in 2020, contemporary geopolitical changes have seen the UK working more closely with the EU on European defence, especially with Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. It is within this context that the UK funded ‘Sankore Project’, worth $2.46 million, can be viewed. The project is designed to enhance innovation, research, technological advancement and STI systems in both Nigeria and Ghana, as well as promote economic diversification and sustainable development under the Strengthening UK-West Africa Science, Technology and Innovation Partnerships for Sustainable Development program. The project is being implemented by UNESCO and R4D, in collaboration with Nigeria’s FMIST, Ghana’s Ministry of Environment, Science, and Technology (MEST), and other relevant stakeholders.

Within the Sankore Project, Nigeria should prioritize support for dual-purpose STI projects with defence capabilities such as radar, aerial, artillery, battery and materials technologies, as a means of strategically aligning with European defense spending and R&D associated with the $860 billion ‘ReArm Europe Plan’. The UK will also be pleased which such STI outcomes, given its involvement in contemporary European security concerns. The demographics and scale of development envisioned in the ReArm Europe plan will require input from outside of Europe, and defence related STI developments from Nigeria not only potentially and strategically meet this need, but also provide Nigeria with symbiotic geopolitical cards.

Still on multilateral STI development initiatives, there is need to synergize Sankore Project with the ‘Strengthening the Research & Innovation Funding Agencies’ (SRIFA) Project, which is designed to sustainably enhance STI development across West Africa. SRIFA is led by the engineer and material scientist Prof. Azikiwe Onwualu, the past President of Nigerian Academy of Engineering and former Director General of RMRDC under the FMIST. A synergy between SRIFA and Sankore Project provides an expanded platform for the inclusion of other specialists such as Prof. Wole Soboyejo of SUNYPOLY University, and Prof. Ndubisi Ekekwe founder of the Intel FGPA certified semiconductor firm FASMICRO, who have the experience and expertise required to expand technology and advanced computing manufacturing that have defence capabilities. Canada that funds SRIFA through its IDRC, will also be interested in dual-purpose technology outcomes from SRIFA and West Africa, given the push by its Prime Minister Mike Carney, to enhance their defence capabilities.

The possibilities that STI cooperation within West Africa provide for more Nigerian geopolitical cards, bring to bear, the need to sustainably reunify ECOWAS. While recent Nigerian diplomatic rapprochements with Republic of Niger are commendable, the defence nature of AES countries requires that sustained efforts be made to reunify ECOWAS. Of recent concern is the political actions of President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló of Guinea Bissau in early March 2025, during an ECOWAS mission to resolve the political impasse in the country. President Embaló has a military background, similar to the leaders of AES countries, and brings to fore once again, the need for the appointment of former President Olusegun of Obasanjo as Special Representative of ECOWAS Chairman to negotiate reproachment with AES. Obasanjo’s experience as a successful mediator across the world, his background as a military officer and leadership of the InterAction Council of former Heads of State give him the required capabilities and experience to resolve these ECOWAS related issues. If President Tinubu’s public birthday wishes to Obasanjo when he turned 88 years recently are signs of improved relations between both men, then they are pluses for Nigeria.

In reunifying ECOWAS, the opportunity for wider peace can be seized to review migration, citizenship and residency regulations in Nigeria, as a means of attracting top talent that contribute to STI development. Some of the right-wing migration policies in some leading countries have provided opportunity for proactive governments to attract top talent to their countries- though it comes with the responsibility of good governance and STI funding platforms. The ‘Brown Card’ policy by the then Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola in May 2023, as well as the Nigerian Citizenship Bill, 2025 (SB. 705) sponsored by Senator Shehu Lawan Kaka and passed first reading at the Nigerian Senate on February 13, 2025, are some of the existing institutional prospects that Tinubu can leverage to attract and retain top talent into Nigeria.

Contemporary geopolitical events and changes in international rules-based order that have been in place since the events of World War II in the 1940’s- with plans for a potential ‘Mar-a Lago Accord’, require a significant strategic review of governance, plans and foreign policy by countries such as Nigeria. The sudden closure of international agencies such as USAID, imposition of higher tariffs on dozens of countries, and sudden changes to multilateral patterns by the U.S., demonstrate the increasing reality of a new era in global politics. Europe has responded to these changes with policies such as the $860 billion ‘ReArm Europe Plan’, China is seeking to consolidate relationships and open new markets, while other countries review their positions- all to have sufficient geopolitical ‘cards’ to play. For Nigeria, upscaling its Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry with expanded capacity of military and dual purpose technology manufacturing through a minimum of 5 percent total budgetary provision, renewing its IPPA agreement with Taiwan as part of foreign policy review for domestic tech manufacturing, and appointing former President Obasanjo as special envoy of ECOWAS to reunify ECOWAS, are some of the practical policy and geopolitical moves to ensure that that Africa’s most populous country will ‘have the cards’ required to play, and thrive, in the current and emerging international system.

Dr. Uwanaka writes from African University of Science and Technology, Abuja. This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..