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![[OPINION] Sahel Junta Leaders Go for Broke - Paul Ejime](/media/k2/items/cache/4da354c1805ecbf0452cf9014e1f1968_XL.jpg)
Since forming the Alliance of Sahel States, AES, in 2023, followed by their controversial decision to quit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2024, the military juntas in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have thrown caution to the wind, ignoring the dire consequences of their ill-advised actions on the estimated 70 million long-suffering people in their countries.
After seizing power from elected governments riding on the crest of anti-French sentiments by citizens of their countries, the juntas are playing to the gallery with populist grandstanding, claiming sanctity of national sovereignty as if elected.
One of their main reasons for pulling their countries out of ECOWAS was the imposition of sanctions because of the military coups they staged in violation of regional protocols on democracy and good governance. The sanctions, which were intended to pressure the juntas back to constitutional rule, have since been lifted, but the military rulers have dug in.
Their other reason, an allegation that ECOWAS has “lost its pan-African orientation because of undue external influence,” notably by France, becomes a no-brainer, given that the same junta leaders are now fraternizing with external powers, particularly Russia and China. A case of swapping external powers!
Whilst their grievance against France - their countries’ former colonial power - might be justified, all three countries are still members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, UEMOA, which is affiliated with France. They also continue to use as their national currency, the franc CFA, controlled by the French Treasury.
Being challenged by insecurity, especially jihadist and separatist insurrections, it is within the rights of the AES as sovereign nations to pursue legitimate common goals such as defence cooperation, economic union and a common passport scheme.
Similarly, they cannot arrogate to themselves the right or power to choose friends or foes for other countries or organisations. They cannot define the relationships between West Africa and the Sahel region with the outside World.
Analysts had thought that the recent visits by Ghana’s President John Mahama to the three countries would consolidate negotiations toward a rapprochement between the AES and ECOWAS.
Mahama has briefed his Nigerian counterpart, President Bola Tinubu, the current Chairman of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government, on his discussions with the junta leaders, including their “concerns,” raising hopes for reconciliation.
However, on 30th March 2025, a few days after the Mahama-Tinubu meeting in Abuja, the junta regimes announced the imposition of a 0.5% tariff on imported goods from non-AES nations, including ECOWAS member States.
They said in a joint statement that the levy, with immediate effect, would affect all goods imported from outside the three countries, except humanitarian aid, and the purpose is to “finance the activities” of AES countries.
Analysts are of the opinion that the juntas and their advisers must be poor students of economics and history, or copycats, who want to eat their cake and still have it.
The ECOWAS Revised Treaty of 1993 introduced a similar 0.5% levy to replace member States’ assessed annual contributions as a mechanism to boost the financing of the organization's activities, mainly because member states were finding it difficult to pay their assessed dues. But the levy, which is deducted at source, is not a stand-alone. ECOWAS also introduced other programmes like the Trade Liberalization Scheme (ETLS), to benefit member States, including AES nations.
Trade among ECOWAS member States is disappointingly low at between 11% and 15%, compared to the figures between them and the outside World. Informal trade predominates in the region, involving itinerant traders who ply their activities across long porous borders linking the contiguous West African and Sahel States.
With the levy imposed by the junta leaders, exports to their countries from non-AES nations could fetch more revenue to the junta regimes, but this will be nullified by the fact that AES citizens, who are already groaning under severe economic hardship, will pay more for imported goods. There will also likely be retaliations from other countries.
According to economic experts, the Sahel states rely on trade with larger economies like Nigeria to sustain their fragile economies, and the new tariff will hurt not only Nigerian exporters but also local businesses in the Sahel region that depend on affordable Nigerian goods.
To show that the junta leaders’ policy measures are not usually thought through, they recently floated a common national Passport, but quickly worked back, by clarifying that citizens of ECOWAS member States with national passports will continue to enjoy the same visa-free regime introduced by ECOWAS since 1979.
The three AES countries are not only landlocked, but they are also some of the least developed countries in the World, and have faced armed Islamist and separatist insurgencies for over a decade.
Perhaps, under-estimating the potential implications, the Niger junta regime has announced the country’s withdrawal from the four-nation Joint Military Task-Force fighting Islamist insurgency groups in the Lake Chad region of West and Central Africa. The junta said it would instead focus on a move that “reflects an intent to reinforce security for oil sites.”
Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger have been fighting insurgencies in the Lake Chad region since 2009 involving the Boko Haram group in Nigeria’s northeast and other jihadist groups such as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).
According to international conflict-monitoring groups, the violence in the region has killed more than 40,000 people and displaced another two million, unleashing one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises in the region.
Whether Niger has the capacity or capability to succeed where several nations have jointly failed remains to be seen. But assuming without conceding that the Niamey junta can defeat the armed insurgencies without the support of neighbouring countries or the international community - placing a higher premium on oil revenue over the lives of Niger citizens - makes the regime transaction-driven and self-serving.
The same Niger junta, which is at loggerheads with neighbouring Benin over an oil pipeline, which is under frequent attacks, recently accused Nigeria of supporting foreign forces seeking to destabilize Niger.
Nigeria did not only dismiss the allegation as baseless, but the Niger junta afterwards dispatched a delegation to Abuja for assistance following Niger’s lingering fuel crisis and Nigeria still obliged by allowing about 300 trucks of fuel to be sent to Niger.
Similarly, despite its grandstanding, the Mali junta has reportedly requested ECOWAS support for its candidate in a forthcoming election to the Third Committee of the United Nations.
These are some of the advantages of regional integration, buttressing the fact that the interests of AES countries and their citizens are better served and protected under a regional socioeconomic and political umbrella.
In another demonstration of herd mentality, the AES countries on 7th April 2025 announced the recall of their Ambassadors from neighbouring Algeria in response to growing tensions over Algeria’s reported downing of Mali’s drone.
The Mali junta has also rubbished the erstwhile peace agreements brokered in Algeria between the Bamako government and the Tuareg separatist group in northern Mali.
These precipitate decisions did not take into consideration the strategic position of Algiers in the fight against terrorism and extremist insurgencies in the Sahel, which has become the epicentre of mutating armed groups following the 2011 killing of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi by rebels supported by NATO forces led by France.
Rather than making friends with neighbouring countries, the juntas are cutting their noses to spite their faces.
As noted by this writer in a recent article Niger's Crippling Fuel Crisis - A Warning to AES Countries, the Sahel nations are free to pursue common interests, while still members of ECOWAS, just as similar groups - the Mano River Union, Zone of Prosperity, Conseil de l'Entente (Council of Accord or Understanding) and UEMOA.
But they are not and can never win in any competition with ECOWAS.
From all indications, the junta leaders and their colleagues in Guinea, who recently announced a five-year transition programme after two years in office, are laser-focused on entrenching themselves in power, at the expense of the citizens of their countries.
There have been no positive changes in the security, political governance, or well-being of citizens of all four countries since the military takeovers. If anything, untold economic hardship, suppression of individual freedoms and human rights violations define the military dictatorships. Political activities have been outlawed and national constitutions suspended.
The juntas’ relentless and unprovoked attacks on ECOWAS are intentional. The regional bloc is the only organization applying pressure on the military rulers to return to constitutional rule.
Their continuing anti-ECOWAS measures will only exacerbate the consequences of self-imposed isolation on their landlocked countries, which heavily depend on the ports of two ECOWAS member states - Benin and Togo - for imports.
Today’s World has no appetite for military rule. It is not enough for an unelected group to claim national sovereignty after forcing itself upon the population. The sooner the junta leaders surrendered power
Paul Ejime is a Media/Communications Specialist and Global Affairs Analyst