This is the season of coalitions, alignments, and realignments of political forces ahead of the “magical” 2027, which may make or mar both the political and economic fortunes of politicians, their supporters, hangers-on, and their regions.

Coalitions, or crossing of political carpets, are not exactly new to Nigeria. In January 1952, some politicians, presumed to be members of the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons, joined forces with those of the Ibadan People’s Party and other independents to form the Action Group, led by Obafemi Awolowo, as Western Nigeria’s Leader of Government Business.

Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, leader of the NCNC, left for Eastern Nigeria in 1953 and got someone to step down for him to contest a by-election to the Eastern Nigeria House of Assembly. Expectedly, he won and found a way to get Eyo Ita to yield the office of leader of government business to him.

Ahead of the 1965 general elections, the Northern Peoples’ Congress and the Nigerian National Democratic Party formed the Nigerian National Alliance against the United Progressives Grand Alliance of the AG and the NCNC. In 2012, David Cameron led the coalition government of the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats.

Within a mere two years, politicians of Northern Nigeria, who claimed to have ceded the presidency to the South in 2023, began clamouring for the power to return to their region. And some mercenary southern politicians, who profit by playing all games on all sides, are joining forces with them to oust their fellow southerner, President Bola Tinubu.

However, many Southern Nigerian politicians, gung-ho about retaining the presidency in 2027, are massing up to send signals about their intention to the northern political establishment that started the coalition idea, which is reminiscent of the watershed formation of the All Progressive Congress in 2013.

Nyesom Wike, a member of the People’s Democratic Party, who is now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory under the APC government, in his capacity as a core protagonist of the lobby to retain the presidency in Southern Nigeria, mocks what he describes as “coalitions that were born and died the same day”.

Also, President Tinubu cruelly taunted members of the opposition political parties who complained that his ruling APC was enticing their members with a most caustic jibe, “It is, indeed, a pleasure to witness you in such disarray.”

But the jibe cut both ways: Firstly, it may be a celebration of the APC’s winning streak. Secondly, it may also serve as a motivation for the opposition to regroup and get together to vigorously contest the political space with the APC ahead of 2027.

The President’s argument that “We cannot blame anybody seeking to bail out of a sinking ship”, is helped by Section 40 of the Constitution, which provides that “Every person shall be entitled to assemble freely and associate with other persons, and in particular… may form or belong to any political party”.

But he took pains to assure the opposition, and Nigerian citizens in general, that because “A greater power did not want Nigeria to become a one-party state… Nigeria will not become such a state now… A one-party state is not in the offing”.

The opposition may argue that action speaks louder than words by pointing to opposition party governors and legislators who moved to the APC. The President rubbed it when he made a point of welcoming the “newest members” of APC, led by Delta Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, Akwa Ibom State Governor Umo Eno and some members of the National Assembly and state legislatures.

Critics of the defectors accuse them of making a desperate beeline to the APC ahead of 2027 to gain access to Nigeria’s commonwealth or find refuge from the long arms of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.

You may not be able to blame any politician who “ports” to a ruling party because of self-preservation. Section 40 of the Constitution allows every Nigerian to “form or belong to any political party… for the protection of his interest”, though it may sound unethical to purists.

Even Karl Marx and several other political thinkers have argued that political parties often serve the interests of the ruling class or the elite, which may include the personal interests of a small group of politicians, who find a clever way to make it look as if they are serving the interest of the citizens.

Those in the APC ruling party who fault opposition party members who are forming a coalition with the hope of wresting political power from President Tinubu in 2027 may not know that Section 84(1) of the Electoral Act allows “any two or more registered political parties (to) merge…”

So, neither the ruling party nor the opposition parties can fault each other as either pursues its interest in the political subterfuge that comes with the game of winning more numbers. Neither can question the motive of the other, as long as neither takes the path of insurrection or violence of any kind.

The APC that is “harvesting” members from other political parties has not broken any laws, nor are those forming coalitions to wrest power from it ahead of the “magical” 2027. The fault is in the Constitution and the Electoral Act, which do not insist that politicians and their political parties must have ideology or even manifestos.

The best attempt at recommending an ideology for Nigerian politicians is Section 224, which provides that “The programme as well as the aims and objectives of a political party shall conform with the provisions of Chapter II of (the 1999) Constitution.”

Unfortunately, Section (9)(6)(c) of the Constitution provides that “The judicial powers vested in (this Constitution) shall not… extend to any issue or question as to whether any act… is in conformity with the Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy set out in Chapter II of (the) Constitution.” In other words, citizens cannot compel the government to abide by the provisions of Chapter II.

Sections 65(2)(b), 106(d), 131(c) and 177(c) do not help much either. They merely require anyone who aspires to run for election into any of the legislative houses at the federal or sub-national level, the offices of president, governors and their deputies, to “be a member of a political party and is sponsored by that political party”.

So, those politicians who throw accusations and counteraccusations of playing bad politics against each other are merely playing the political game of brinkmanship in a political atmosphere that does not operate with ethics or stated ideology.

Those who leave the ruling APC may have been excluded from the share of sinecures or “stomach infrastructure” gains, while those who are joining APC from opposition parties may be doing so because of promises of some gains, a zero-sum game of what some lose is what others gain.

Any citizen who gets carried away by either side is showing his or her level of ignorance or gullibility. The rule of Nigerian democracy is that there are no rules of the game. For now, each player runs according to his perceived options.

A wise man admonishes that citizens in a democratic realm must never fall in love with politicians, whose sole concern is all about winning the next election to gain political power at all costs, even if it is to the detriment of the electorate.