To my surprise, foreign investors listened not with skepticism but with respect. Many were, in their own words, “impressed.” They applauded the policies. They admired the pace of implementation. Some even confessed they hadn’t expected this level of discipline. But as the conversations deepened, so did the concerns.

One word kept surfacing: uncertainty 

Investors were not just worried about Nigeria. They were anxious about the world. Trump’s return to the political stage and his tariff talk were casting long shadows on emerging markets like ours. Many feared what a new wave of U.S. protectionism would do to oil prices and, by extension, to Nigeria’s fragile fiscal plan. Oil remains our lifeline, and everyone in the room knew it.

And yet, there was more. Investors kept circling back to a sobering question: How are ordinary Nigerians coping with all of this?

They were concerned not just with inflation or the exchange rate but with the very real pain being felt on the streets of Lagos, Kano, and Port Harcourt. The palliatives were not enough, they said. The social safety nets were too shallow. They wondered aloud how long Nigerians could endure this level of economic adjustment without political backlash or social unrest.

It wasn’t just investors raising these concerns. The IMF echoed them too. In their briefings, Nigeria’s policy reforms were described as bold and necessary. But they also forecasted weaker GDP growth than what the Nigerian government had projected. Inflation was still too high and was projected to go even higher. Poverty was still climbing. Growth, they warned, could be jobless and exclusive unless social support systems were urgently strengthened. They also warned of inefficient spending amidst growing fiscal deficits.

At another session hosted by the Federal Ministry of Finance and the CBN, we saw an even larger gathering of international investors. The government presented more data, laid out its fiscal strategies, and opened the floor for questions. One investor stood up and asked a tough one: Have you factored in falling oil prices in your 2025 budget projections?

The Minister of Finance gave a diplomatic response. He acknowledged the concerns and said scenarios were being considered. He mentioned a task team working on alternative revenue sources and hinted at plans to ramp up crude oil output through a newly energized NNPC. But the room could sense the struggle—oil still dominates our revenue, and the urgency to diversify remains more a goal than a reality.

Other issues came up, like Nigeria’s absence from the JP Morgan bond index. For many foreign portfolio managers, this exclusion is a deal-breaker. It limits their ability to invest in Nigerian assets, no matter how attractive the returns look. The DG of the Debt Management Office confirmed that Nigeria had met all the criteria, but the inclusion process was still ongoing. No timeline was given.

Then there was the matter of data. Investors trust what they can measure. While they praised the CBN for its data transparency, they expressed frustration with the Ministry of Finance. The availability, consistency, and quality of fiscal data are still major stumbling blocks. The Nigerian delegation assured them that reforms were underway. But again—no timelines, no specifics.

And yet, despite all of this, I felt a shift. 

Unlike previous years, where Nigerian officials were met with cold doubt or outright disapproval, this time was different. Investors and institutions alike acknowledged that progress had been made. They just weren’t sure how durable it was or how insulated it was from political shocks, both domestic and global.

We’ve done the hard part, policy reforms that many countries avoid. Now, we are entering the hardest part: waiting. Waiting for oil prices to rise. Waiting for the tariffs and trade wars to settle. Waiting for the rating agencies to catch up. Fitch recently upgraded Nigeria’s credit rating, but others like Moody’s and S&P are yet to budge.

In truth, many of the risks that still hang over Nigeria are beyond our control. That’s the painful irony. We’ve started the engine, but the road is still bumpy and the weather is getting worse. The Trump tariff fears are real. Global growth is slowing. And we are still the poverty capital of the world, according to the World Bank.

A foreign investor summed it up for us after one session: “You’ve fixed many of the issues that made us walk away. Now we just need to see stability. If that happens, billions of dollars will come rolling in.” 

Let’s hope we’re not just running a good race but one we can finish.