Ask the AI about how important the rule of law is in a democracy and one of the answers that you get is that the rule of law is absolutely crucial for the proper functioning and legitimacy of a democracy.

It tells you that rule of law acts as a foundation for a stable and just society, ensuring that everyone, including those in power, is accountable to the law.

AI goes on to say that without the rule of law, a democracy can easily descend into tyranny, with leaders acting arbitrarily and without regard for the rights of citizens.

This suggests that the rule of law is an essential ingredient of democracy, and that without it, democracy is nothing; it is useless.

This presupposes that when there is rule of law, government will be accountable to the people.

There will be no imperial president and everyone will be equal before the law.

The judiciary will not be encumbered in the discharge of its responsibilities while the executive will not emasculate the legislature.

In other words, the principle of separation of powers will be strictly enforced.

Election will count because operators of the system will know the consequences for conducting a flawed election.
Public utilities will be in place because the regulators are watching.

Corrupt public officials will know what awaits them as law enforcement is not selective.

All the sectors of the country will work because this is rule of law at work and not the rule of man.

No arbitrariness. No impunity. No clampdown on dissent. No rigging into public office at elections.

When President Bola Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, expectations were high that rule of law is one of the areas his administration would give due attention.

The expectations were not misplaced given his antecedents as a former pro-democracy activist under the despotic Abacha regime and his fight for democratic ideals as governor of Lagos State under the ‘repressive’ Obasanjo administration.
So what has happened two years down the line to the rule of law under the Tinubu administration?

Opinions are divided but many people, especially Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), believe that rule of law is lagging under the Tinubu administration, citing instances.

In their mid-term assessment of the government, some CSOs, among others, spoke to Sunday Vanguard.

They pointed out areas, including alleged non-adherence to human rights, alleged repression of protests, worsening insecurity, perceived manipulation of the judiciary to achieve selfish ends, sacking of an elected governor, choosing which court order to obey, lawmakers acting as law breakers and alleged selective fight against corruption, to back their positions.

‘Unfulfilled promises’

One of the opposition parties, Because Of Our Tomorrow, BOOT, declared that Tinubu has failed to fulfill his promises to Nigerians during the 2023 campaigns.

The National Chairman of BOOT party, Sonny Adenuga, reeled out scores on some of the promises Tinubu made to Nigerians.
He said: “Regrettably, the administration’s performance falls far short of the ‘Renewed Hope’ Agenda (RHA) it once promised.

20% score on human rights and justice

“On rule of law and equal access to justice. Reality: Under Tinubu’s rule, the protection of human rights has suffered gravely. Citizens find themselves navigating a legal system that favours those with deep pockets—those who can ‘buy’ justice—while grassroots protests are met with unnecessarily heavy-handed measures. “This deliberate constriction of judicial independence undermines our democratic fabric, leaving Nigerians with little recourse when their rights are trampled. It is high time that justice and fairness be restored—not as abstract ideals but as tangible realities.

Policies on insecurity — 20%

“He promised every Nigerian must feel safe—through enhanced capabilities and intelligence-led operations. Reality: Despite persistent calls for robust security reforms, there has been no tangible shift in combating terrorism, banditry, and kidnappings.

“The state security apparatus has been reduced to a display of uniforms and firearms, lacking the intelligence-led operations needed to neutralize threats effectively. This strategic void leaves our communities exposed and underscores a broader failure to secure the nation against incessant violence.

Fight against corruption — 10%

“He promised to overhaul anti-graft agencies to ensure impartial enforcement. Reality: The administration’s anti-corruption drive remains dishearteningly superficial. Institutions like the EFCC now function more as political instruments than as impartial watchdogs.

“Instead of eradicating corruption, the regime appears to have normalized selective accountability while protecting its own interests. Genuine reform demands transforming these bodies into transparent, efficient entities committed to rooting out graft at every level.

Agricultural policies for food security — 20%

“He promised modernized farming, expand credit access, and secure abundant harvests. Reality: Promises in the agricultural sector have largely gone unfulfilled.

“Northern farmers continue shouldering largely the responsibility of feeding the nation under challenging conditions, while their southern counterparts wait in vain for announced subsidies.

“This uneven support deepens regional disparities and jeopardizes national food security. An effective policy must distribute resources equitably and empower all Nigerian farmers to thrive.

Appointments — 15%

“He promised to enhance governance structures to ensure efficient and transparent service delivery. Reality: Recent appointments have done little to inspire confidence in the government’s commitment to merit and inclusivity. “Selections appear driven by patronage, political expediency, and loyalty rather than competence and integrity. Such decisions erode public trust and highlight a troubling trend of consolidating power at the expense of accountability.

Employment generation — 15%

“He promised so much under economic reform and social investment. Reduce unemployment and cut poverty rates. Reality: Employment strategies under this regime have proven inadequate and short-sighted.

“Instead of creating sustainable job opportunities, Nigeria is witnessing the ‘Japa Syndrome,’ as citizens seek greener pastures abroad. Poverty-alleviation initiatives remain superficial, failing to address systemic drivers of unemployment. “The government must invest in dynamic vocational training and local enterprise development to break the cycle of deprivation.

Improvements in education, healthcare, and infrastructure — 10%

“He promised to revamp schools and hospitals; expand social-welfare schemes to build human capital. Reality: Much-touted improvements in education, healthcare, power, and infrastructure remain unfulfilled. “Bureaucratic bottlenecks continue to impede progress and frustrate young Nigerians; for example, JAMB reforms that once held promise now bog applicants down with glitches. Overburdened healthcare services force our healthcare heroes to operate under extreme pressure. Additionally, stalled infrastructure and power projects have left communities underserved.

“The federal government must urgently redirect priorities to rebuild these essential sectors and genuinely uplift Nigerians’ quality of life.

Opposition parties’ functioning — 10%

“He also promised to strengthen institutions to safeguard democratic participation and free association. Reality: In an environment where dissent is often met with state hostility, opposition parties—including the BOOT Party—have shown commendable resilience. Despite operating with limited resources and facing significant challenges, we have steadfastly advocated for transparency, accountability, and inclusive governance.

“Our efforts to mobilise the citizenry and present viable alternatives underscore our unwavering commitment to the core values of democracy, even amidst adversity. “Moreover, the ruling APC continues to pose a significant threat by incessantly attempting to co-opt opposition members and stifle dissent.

Democracy under threat — 10%

“He promised under federalism and decentralization to amend the national governance structure to afford states greater autonomy. Reality: The imposition of an unelected ex-military ‘state administrator’ in Rivers State exemplifies an administration drifting toward authoritarian shortcuts rather than democratic solutions—what we at the BOOT Party have described as ‘an echo of dictatorship’.

“This undemocratic measure is a stark symbol of government failure; it directly undermines state and local governments’ autonomy and bypasses the crucial checks provided by our judicial system.

“As highlighted following Attorney General Prince Lateef Fagbemi’s press briefing, such unilateral decisions subvert the rule of law and erode public trust in our democratic institutions. This approach is unsustainable and must be reversed if we are to restore true democratic governance.

Local government autonomy — 30%

“He promised to enhance governance structures to ensure efficient and transparent service delivery. Reality: While greater local autonomy could improve service delivery, some governors have threatened to resist.
“The federal government’s recent imposition of an unconstitutional ‘state administrator’ in Rivers State sends the wrong message about genuine devolution.

Fuel subsidy removal impact — 45%

“He promised a diversified, resilient economy that spurs investment, reduces unemployment, and spreads wealth equitably. Reality: Though this policy holds promise, its execution has increased deprivation and work-poverty, especially among the poorest Nigerians.

“The federal government has not ensured that additional funds, available to state and local governments as a result of this policy, are ring-fenced for poverty alleviation to mitigate the policy’s impact”.

There has been a sustained effort to quash dissent — Global Rights

The Executive Director, Global Rights Nigeria, Abiodun Bayeiwu, for its part, asserted that under the Tinubu administration, the state of human rights, protests, and access to justice has deteriorated significantly.

“There has been a deliberate and sustained effort to quash dissent and shrink civic space, targeting freedoms of expression, peaceful assembly, and the press”, he said. “Rather than respond to public grievances with accountability, the government has embraced repression. Peaceful protesters have faced excessive force, unlawful arrests, and, in some cases, baseless charges like treason.

“One of the most shameful episodes in a democratic journey occurred in 2024, when malnourished minors fainted at the Federal High Court in Abuja while being arraigned for treason in connection with the #EndBadGovernance demonstrations, a stark indictment of the current administration.

“Press freedom has also been under siege. According to the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development, CJID, over 50 journalists were attacked in 2024, including arrests, physical violence, and surveillance, evidence of deepening hostility toward the media. Nigeria’s classification as ‘repressed’ on the 2024 CIVICUS Monitor underscores this worsening climate for civic actors.

“Meanwhile, the justice system inspires little confidence. Many Nigerians view the judiciary as compromised, often siding with the executive rather than upholding citizens’ rights.

“Law enforcement routinely responds to protests with intimidation, brutality, and arbitrary detention.
“These violent responses expose another layer of failure: a government unwilling to tolerate criticism and dismissive of the civic freedoms guaranteed under the Constitution.

Fight against corruption

“The administration’s fight against corruption leaves a lot to be desired. While the rhetoric around anti-corruption remains strong, the reality on the ground suggests that efforts are often selective and politically motivated. Anti-graft agencies like the EFCC appear to focus more on individuals perceived as political enemies of the administration, while those aligned with the ruling party often enjoy protection or leniency.

“A clear example is the case of former Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello, a member of the ruling party, who evaded arrest for a long time despite being declared wanted. “The optics of that incident, and the EFCC’s struggle to bring him to custody, have only reinforced public perception that the fight against corruption is partisan and inconsistent.

“This selective approach has contributed to the troubling trend of politicians carpet-crossing to avoid prosecution, undermining the credibility of anti-corruption institutions. Moreover, the government’s failure to prioritize and pass critical legislative reforms—particularly the Whistleblower Protection Bill—further weakens the structural framework needed to fight corruption effectively.

“Without strong legal protections for whistleblowers, potential insiders are discouraged from coming forward, and institutional accountability remains out of reach.

“For a genuine anti-corruption war, the administration must move beyond slogans and empower systems that ensure transparency, fairness, and the rule of law, regardless of political affiliation.

‘CSOs treated with suspicion and hostility’

“Under the Tinubu administration, civil society has continued to operate in a hostile and unnecessarily restrictive regulatory environment. Rather than being regarded as partners in development and democracy, CSOs are too often treated with suspicion and hostility.

“A key example of this is the introduction of the Not-for-Profit Governance Code by the Financial Reporting Council (FRC)—an extra compliance burden that many organizations view as a veiled attempt to exert control over the sector.

“While accountability frameworks are important, the Code introduces vague and duplicative standards that risk stifling grassroots organizing and increasing operational uncertainty for civil society actors already operating in difficult conditions.

“Compounding this is the administration’s pattern of making unfounded accusations against CSOs, particularly in the North-East, where they have been repeatedly accused of supporting terrorism, without a shred of credible evidence. This narrative escalated dangerously after the closure of USAID, when the agency was falsely accused of funding terrorist activity, prompting the House of Representatives to launch an investigation into CSO operations in Nigeria. These attacks, coming at a time of shrinking donor support, threaten to cripple the sector at a moment when its work is most needed.

“The vibrancy of civil society is essential in any democracy, and even more so now, when transparency, service delivery, and human rights protections are faltering. Rather than clamp down on CSOs, this administration should be creating an enabling environment for them to thrive and do the work”.

Section 39 serially violated – Adeyanju

A human rights lawyer and activist, Deji Adeyanju, took a position, faulting the Tinubu administration on adherence to rule of law.

“Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution guarantees freedom of expression under Section 39, yet reports from human rights organizations indicate persistent restrictions under the current administration”, Adeyanju said. “Journalists, activists, and critics have faced arrests, detentions, and harassment, often under vague or broadly interpreted laws.
“For instance, in May 2024, Daniel Ojukwu, a journalist with the Foundation for Investigative Journalism, was detained for 10 days under allegations of violating the Cybercrimes Act after publishing a report implicating a former presidential aide in corruption.

“Similarly, Chioma Okoli, a private citizen, faced charges under the same law for posting a critical review of a commercial product, sparking public outrage over the misuse of legal frameworks to silence dissent. These cases highlight a pattern where the Cybercrimes Act, originally intended to combat online fraud and cyber-terrorism, is increasingly used to target critics, raising concerns about executive overreach and judicial complicity.

“The administration’s response to dissent has also extended to civil society and opposition figures.

“The United States Department of State’s 2024 human rights report further noted instances where critics faced threats, intimidation, and arbitrary arrests, with ‘cyber-stalking’ charges used to detain individuals for derogatory online statements.

“These actions suggest a governance approach that, at times, prioritizes control over open dialogue, undermining democratic principles.

“The right to peaceful assembly, enshrined in Section 40 of Nigeria’s Constitution, has been a flashpoint under Tinubu’s administration, particularly during the #EndBadGovernance protests from August 1–10, 2024.

“Triggered by soaring inflation (reaching 34.19% by June 2024) and food insecurity following economic reforms like fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation, these protests saw citizens across multiple states demand accountability and relief from economic hardship.

“However, the government’s response was marked by significant violence and repression.

“Amnesty International documented that Nigerian police used excessive force, resulting in at least 24 deaths across states including Borno, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, and Niger. Over 1,000 protesters were detained, with reports of tear gas, live ammunition, and physical assaults deployed against largely peaceful demonstrations.

“In September 2024, 10 protesters were charged with treason, a capital offense, and in November, 76 others, including 30 minors, faced similar charges, prompting widespread condemnation for disproportionate legal escalation.

“The government’s preemptive rhetoric, with officials labeling the protests as politically motivated and warning of ‘regime change’ plots, further heightened tensions, recalling the violent suppression of the 2020 #EndSARS protests, where security forces killed at least 12 at Lekki Toll Gate.

“The lack of accountability for these violations remains a critical issue.
“No security personnel have been prosecuted for the deaths or injuries during the #EndBadGovernance protests, perpetuating a culture of impunity.

“The shrinking civic space is a call for concern and I hope that the civil society organizations and the media will rise to the occasion and challenge the disturbing trend of the administration’s highhandedness against dissenting voices.

Civic space shrinking —ActionAid

The Country Director, ActionAid Nigeria, AAN, Andrew Mamedu, lamented that there are growing concerns over shrinking civic space.

Peaceful protests, according to Mamedu, are often met with force as we saw with the arrest and detention of protesters in Abuja and Lagos during the #EndBadGovernance and #HungerDey protests in 2024.

“Media freedom is also under pressure, with journalists from facing harassment, intimidation, or summons from security agencies for critical reporting”, he said.

“Justice is painfully slow especially for victims of police brutality from during the #EndSARS movement. While judicial panels were set up in various states, many have either gone silent or failed to implement their recommendations.

“In Lagos State, for instance, the white paper on the judicial panel’s findings dismissed several key recommendations, including the acknowledgment of deaths at the Lekki Toll Gate.

“Compounding this is the increasing to peaceful assembly violates Section 40 of the Nigerian Constitution and Nigeria’s obligations under international human rights treaties, such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, ICCPR, and the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights.

“The government must understand that peaceful protest is not a threat to national security — it is a sign of democratic vibrancy.

“Using state institutions to silence dissent sets a dangerous precedent and signals a regression to authoritarianism. Instead of criminalising protesters, the government should listen and reform.

“The essence of democracy lies not in crushing opposing voices but in responding to them with empathy and justice”.

Policies, human rights need improvement —Faro

Meanwhile, a lawyer and an advocate for Justice and Economic Development, Idris Faro, also contributing, scored the Tinubu administration high on rule of law.

“Respect for and guarantee of human rights is commendable, under the administration”, Faro said.

“Though the police still have to improve with regard to the right to protest and peaceful assembly, it is not proper for the police to disrupt peaceful protests simply because the protesters did not seek police permit. “This right is constitutional and inalienable. The Police should stop provoking peaceful protesters by firing tear gas at them.

“The government has to adhere fully to the rule of law. Court orders must be obeyed always. The independence of the Judiciary must be respected by the executive

“The Constitution is supreme and must be respected at all times. Powers exercised by the executive must be in accordance with the clear provisions of the Constitution”.

[Vanguard]