The tariff and imminent trade war orchestrated by US President Donald Trump against Canada, China and Mexico may heighten imported inflation for Nigeria and some African countries.

Economic and financial experts say Trump’s action could also cause a fall in the price of crude oil.

Trump had on Saturday signed an executive order, imposing new tariffs, including a 25 percent duty on all imports from Mexico and most products from Canada, along with a 10 percent tariff on goods imported from China.

According to the Trump administration, the tariffs are aimed at curbing the flow of drugs and undocumented immigrants into the US. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the sweeping tariffs he imposed on Mexico, Canada and China may cause “some pain” for Americans.

In swift response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced retaliatory tariffs, while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau introduced “far-reaching” levies targeting American goods.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government said it would be filing a formal complaint to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) against the U.S. over President Trump’s decision to impose new tariffs on imports.

China’s ministry of commerce promised to take necessary countermeasures to safeguard its interests.

“The unilateral tariff hikes by the US seriously violate World Trade Organisation rules,” the ministry said.

While experts see opportunities for countries with manufacturing capabilities to explore the trade war to their advantage, they doubted the capacity of Nigeria to exploit opportunities from the trade war, since the country is not a producing economy but import-dependent.

In a telephone interview with LEADERSHIP yesterday, the chief executive of Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said the tariff slammed on countries such as Canada, China and Mexico may lead to heightened imported inflation for Nigeria.

According to him, despite the tariff being a bilateral issue, it will disrupt global trade which will have implications for the global economy in the long run because of the size of the economies involved.

For Nigeria, he noted that the tariff will spark inflation in the U.S., affecting the price of imported goods from the country into Nigeria.

“Secondly, if there is inflation in the U.S. which is more likely to happen, the U.S. Fed is likely to raise interest rates, and when they do this, Nigeria will have issues with foreign portfolio investments (FPIs).

“So there is the issue of the inflationary effect transmitted to us by way of effect on our FPIs. There is also the issue of inflationary effect arising from our import from the U.S.  which we do not have much alternative for,” he said.

Yusuf pointed out that the trade war may depress the global economy, and lead to the development of new trade partnership, adding that manufacturing countries that are not slammed with the tariffs would be better for it.

Professor Michael Obadan, a former Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member noted that Nigeria’s level of exports had become quite inconsequential that the country may not be able to tap into the opportunities present in the trade war. Expressing pessimism about Nigeria’s readiness to exploit any opportunity, he said, “One will expect that if America is reducing its volume of trade with the countries affected in the tariff war, it may want to import from other countries that have not been imposed with such tariffs.

“If Nigeria were a manufacturing country and we had the capacity to manufacture and the goods are similar to the ones tariffed, it would have been an opportunity for Nigeria to increase its volume of exports and earn more foreign exchange.”

He noted that Nigeria’s economic environment was hostile to manufacturing because of the reform policies implemented in the last few years.

“Many manufacturing companies have departed the country, particularly the foreign ones, and those in the country are just struggling to produce. They are producing goods at very, very high costs because the operating environment is very hostile, and such goods are not competitive, even within the country, not to talk of abroad.

“Nigeria is not in a good position to take advantage of any trade opportunity that might be tariff war initiated by America. Nigeria is a bad shape at the moment in the area of production, particularly production of manufactured goods and agricultural goods. Trade war involves manufactured goods, mostly, maybe some extent, agricultural goods,” he said.

For his part, the chief executive of Economic Associates, Dr. Ayo Teriba, sees the potential threat of disruption by President Donald Trump as empty and only temporary at best.

He noted that the world had changed and countries were better prepared to absorb the shocks of tariffs and other trade restrictions.

According to him, the USA is just a country of 350 million people against the likes of China and India, and other countries that constitute the BRICS nations.

He also said the USA did not belong to any economic bloc, yet Trump was threatening countries that belong to BRICS, made up of billions in population, noting that if these countries were to retaliate, it would be the American economy that would suffer the most.

“If you restrict their sales to your country they will end up restricting your own sales to more than two billion people. Who is going to lose more? When it comes to trade war, I think America is more vulnerable than Trump is imagining.

“I see what Trump is doing as empty threat; after about three months from now, the reality will begin to dawn on him,” he said.

A frontrunner for the prime ministerial position in Canada, former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, in an interview with the CNN’s Global Public Square presenter, Fareed Zakaria, yesterday stated that by slamming trade restrictions on Canada, the USA was shooting itself in the leg as it depends on Canada for a huge chunk of its trade.

A development economist at Adeleke University, Professor Tayo Bello, believes the ongoing trade tensions should serve as a wake-up call for Nigeria to intensify its backward integration efforts.

“Trump is enforcing backward integration in America to protect jobs and industries. Nigeria should be doing the same. We have abundant agricultural land, yet we are net importers of food. We have vast crude oil reserves, yet we import refined petroleum products. The government must prioritise self-reliance and local production,” he said.

But chief executive of AntHill Concepts Ltd, Dr. Emeka Okengwu, insists that Nigeria must take advantage of this shift.

“Nobody holds absolute economic power anymore. Even though the U.S. is a dominant force, other economies are adjusting. The BRICS nations, for example, are strengthening their economic ties, and they are already some of the biggest buyers of Nigeria’s crude oil. We should leverage these relationships and move from just exporting raw materials to adding value through local refining and industrial processing,” he said.

A financial economist at Auchi Polytechnic, Zakari Mohammed, sees both risks and opportunities in Trump’s policies.

“A weaker naira could make Nigerian exports more competitive in international markets, but it also makes imports more expensive, increasing inflation. The key for Nigeria is to reduce its import dependency and build a self-sufficient economy. If we fail to do so, global economic disruptions like this will always leave us vulnerable,” he said.

On his part, chief executive of Cowry Assets Management Company, Mr Johnson Chukwu, noted that the tariffs would lead to an increase in the cost of goods and services, because countries are going to build barriers.

“The principle of competitive advantage will be jettisoned and this means everybody will try to produce everything, even when the costs of producing those things in their localities are higher.

“Donald Trump is pushing for improved oil production in the U.S. and he has also said he is going to disrupt the OPEC+ Alliance, and get Saudi Arabia to produce more. When that happens, we should expect crude prices to drop. And because Nigeria doesn’t have capacity to compensate for the drop in terms of increased production, our foreign exchange will slow down.

“Ordinarily, if you can compensate for a drop in price by increasing volume, you will not so much feel the impact but we are not in that position. So what that means is that Nigeria’s foreign exchange inflow will be negatively impacted.”

The director-general of National Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Sola Obadimu said Nigeria needs to develop its trade policy that will favour and protect the nation as other nations are doing.

“Those in charge of our trade policy should bring out policy that will protect us,” he said.

The vice president of Highcap Securities Limited, Mr. David Adonri, said by the trade war and violent threats of acquisition of independent countries, the United States of America is dislocating the world’s socio-economic order.

“The tariffs war may eventually provoke global hyperinflation and perhaps lead to recession,” he stated.

Adonri further noted that there is the possibility of a precipitous fall in the price of crude oil amidst this battle, which may batter the Nigerian economy.

“The U.S. is pursuing a covert isolationist policy aimed at revitalising their domestic production capacity.

“The impact of the policy on Nigeria can be very devastating if it adversely affects diaspora remittances and crude oil price. The situation is deteriorating very fast and if Nigeria does not react proactively by domesticating the economy like the U.S. is doing, the consequences may be very dire.”

Opportunities for Nigeria and Other Exporting Nations

While the trade war between the U.S. and its partners presents economic challenges, analysts believe it could create new export opportunities for countries like Nigeria

Speaking with LEADERSHIP yesterday, economic sector analyst, Stephen Kanabe said as U.S. tariffs will make goods from China, Mexico, and Canada more expensive, Nigeria can position itself as an alternative supplier, especially in sectors like oil, agricultural products, and manufactured goods.

Companies looking to avoid tariffs may shift production to Nigeria or source raw materials from Nigerian industries, boosting local manufacturing and job creation.

“With disrupted trade flows, Nigerian products (such as crude oil, agricultural exports, and textiles) may become more attractive to U.S. buyers seeking cost-effective alternatives to goods from China, Mexico, and Canada,” he stated.

However, a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Professor Michael Obadan, said Nigeria’s level of exports had become quite inconsequential that the country may not be able to tap into the opportunities present in the trade war.

Expressing pessimism on Nigeria’s readiness to exploit any opportunity, he said, “One will expect that if America is reducing its volume of trade with the countries affected in the tariff war, it may want to import from other countries that have not been imposed with such tariffs.

“If Nigeria is a manufacturing country and we have the capacity to manufacture and the goods are similar to the ones tariffed, it would have been an opportunity for Nigeria to increase its volume of exports and earn more foreign exchange.

“Nigeria’s economic environment is hostile to manufacturing because of the reform policies implemented in the last few years. Many manufacturing companies have departed the country, particularly the foreign ones, and those in the country are just struggling to produce. They are producing goods at very, very high cost because the operating environment is very hostile, and such goods are not competitive, even within the country, not to talk of abroad.

“Nigeria is not in a good position to take advantage of any trade opportunity that might be tariff war initiated by America. Nigeria is in a bad shape at the moment in the area of production, particularly production of manufactured goods and agricultural goods. The Trade War involves manufactured goods, mostly, maybe to some extent, agricultural goods.”

Economic analyst Jimoh Solomon Sule suggests that the situation could lead to increased export demand for non-U.S. suppliers, and trade diversion as companies seek alternative sourcing options. Apart from that, he said more foreign direct investment (FDI) will go to countries with strong manufacturing bases.

“Nigeria’s competitiveness could improve as disruptions in global trade force buyers to look for alternative suppliers,” Sule explained.

Crude oil, one of Nigeria’s primary exports, could become a viable alternative for U.S. importers seeking to offset changes in their trade relationships.

Trump Receives Flak

A barrage of condemnations has rained down on United States President Donald Trump following his decision to impose stiff tariffs on imports from neighbouring countries, Mexico and Canada, as well as its largest supplier of goods, China.

According to analysts, Trump’s new tariffs could drive up the prices of everyday goods, from cars and sneakers to tequila and avocados.

Trade between North America and the U.S. hit $1.8 trillion in 2023—far surpassing the $643 billion with China. Trump’s new decision imposes a 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports and 25 percent on those from Mexico and Canada, with a lower 10 percent rate on Canadian energy.

The U.S. imports billions in cars and parts from Canada and Mexico, with vehicles crossing borders multiple times during production. Experts warn a 25 percent tariff could add $3,000 to car prices.

Also, Canada, America’s largest crude oil supplier, ships billions in oil that U.S. refineries rely on. Tariffs could push gas prices up by 30-70 cents per gallon.

The U.S. imports billions in tequila, mezcal, and Canadian whisky. Retaliatory tariffs could further hurt the spirits industry, which already faces a 50% EU tariff on American whiskey. The U.S. buys $85 billion in farm goods from Canada and Mexico, including most imported fruits and vegetables. A 25% tariff would mean pricier groceries, including “guacamole tariffs” just before the Super Bowl.

Past tariff wars led to retaliatory measures on U.S. crops like soybeans and corn, forcing the government to compensate farmers. While Trump delivered aid before, many farmers prefer open markets over government checks.

 [Leadership]

Kano State Governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf, has honoured 19 generals, six professors and 10 other Kano citizens who have excelled in their chosen careers.

The state banquet in honour of the distinguished Kano sons and daughters was held at the government house Saturday night.

Speaking at the occasion, Governor Yusuf congratulated those honoured for reaching significant milestones in their respective fields, emphasizing that their achievements have been instrumental to the socio-economic development of the state and the nation.

The governor, who said the event was non-partisan, assured the guests that the celebration was purely in recognition of their professional excellence, expressing his administration’s commitment to work hand in hand with the leaders without any political interference.

“You are great professionals of record, and it is this spirit of selfless service that we want to encourage and celebrate,” he said.

The governor encouraged the younger generation to pursue education and careers in various fields such as the military, police, civil service, judiciary and others, noting that would help Kano State continue to produce nationally and internationally recognised talents.

He expressed gratitude to all stakeholders who contributed to the event’s success, including the federal government for its support in promoting Kano’s indigenous talent.

Earlier, the chairman of the organising committee, Mohammed Jamu, explained that the event was to celebrate the extraordinary contributions of Kano’s sons and daughters – individuals who have represented the state with distinction across various fields.

On his part, the leader of all imams in Nigeria, Sheikh Nasir Muhammad Adam, challenged the awardees to ensure mentorship of upcoming ones in their chosen careers.

The awardees are Air Marshal Hassan Bala Abubakar, Major General M. S. Ahmed, Major General I. S  Ali, Major General A. M. Garba, Major General Sani Sumaila Ibrahim, Major General B. U. Yahya, Major General S. Y. Bashir, Major General U. B. Abubakar, Major General Faruk Mijinyawa and Major General Jamal Abdulsalam.

Other military officers include Air Vice Marshal M. Yusuf, Air Vice Marshal G. A. Bello, Air Vice Marshal B. R. Mamman, Air Vice Marshal S. K. Usman, Air Vice Marshal M. S. Ibrahim, Air Vice Marshal K. M. Umar, Rear Admiral Abdullahi Ahmad, Rear Admiral Aliyu Gaya and Rear Admiral Idi Abbas.

Also awarded were Prof. Shehu Ahmad Said Galadanci, CON, Dr Nasiru Sani Gwarzo, Yakubu Adamu Kofar Mata, DIG Dasuki Galadanchi, DDG DSS, Alhaji Ado Muazu, Prof. Umma Abdullahi, Prof. Hadiza Galadanci, Prof. Nazifi Abdullahi Darma, Prof. Hamisu Armayau Bichi, Prof. Sagir Adamu Abass and CP Hajiya Hauwa Ibrahim.

Others were Dr Rislanuddeen Muhammad, Eng. Mustapha Balarabe Shehu, Arc. Hauwa Hassan Tudunwada, Ado Kabiru Minjibir Mni and Marwan Mustapha Adamu mni.

[DailyTrust]

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is ready for any challenge from opposition leaders during the 2027 general election, the Presidency said yesterday.

It faulted comments by the political opponents against the administration, describing them as “distracting” and “Machiavellian.”

The Presidency advised the leading opposition figures and other critics – Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Mr. Peter Obi, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai and Mr. Rotimi Amaechi – to wait till the next poll before they flex muscles.

According to the Presidency, the activities of the opposition leaders are premature.

“This is 2025, not 2027. Let those who want to test their popularity with Nigerians wait for the next election,” Sunday Dare, Special Adviser on Media and Public Communications, said.

Also peeping into the future, former House of Representatives Speaker and ex-governor of Katsina State, Bello Masari, said there was no alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Former member of the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party, Salihu Lukman, said some of the opposition figures lacked the quality of leadership, urging them to drop their presidential ambitions.

He said: “Based on their records, they exhibit intolerant dispositions and poor relationships on account of which they have mismanaged their transitions and are today hardly in control of political structures in their states.”

At a two-day democracy conference in Abuja, Atiku, 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), his Labour Party (LP) counterpart, Obi, and former Katsina State Governor El-Rufai fired salvos at the Federal Government, saying that it was not living to expectation.

Atiku alleged that the ruling party had doled out N50 million as a bribe to each of the opposition parties to disorganise and silence their leadership.

El-Rufai, a chieftain of APC, alleged a lack of internal democracy and active party structures within the ruling party.

“I no longer recognise the APC. No party organ has met in two years—no caucus, no NEC, nothing. You don’t even know if it is a one-man show; it’s a zero-man show,” he said.

Amaechi called for “brutal force” to take from President Tinubu in 2027, adding that if he had been president, he would have run the country differently.

Taking an exception to the comments, Dare, in a post on his verified X handle, urged Nigerians to scrutinise the antecedents of these politicians.

He described the attacks on the Tinubu Administration as predictable attempts to stir controversy while the President was away in Tanzania addressing Nigeria’s energy challenges.

“While the President was seeking solutions to Nigeria’s energy problems in Dar es Salaam, some ‘wannabes’ were heating up the polity,” Dare added.

The Special Adviser described the recent Abuja gathering as an effort to spread ill will, noting that some participants resorted to undemocratic rhetoric.

“Expectedly, it was a gathering convened to further spread ill will.

“Nothing new came out of the gathering different from the opposition script we are used to,” Dare stressed.

He urged Nigerians to scrutinise the antecedents of these “political gladiators” and choose between “political hecklers and real progressives.”

Dare emphasised that President Tinubu remains focused on his mandate to improve the lives of Nigerians and build a resilient economy, despite the distractions.

“The only conversation he wants to have now is how to improve the lives of Nigerian citizens and constructive discourse on building a resilient economy,” he said.

Dare assured Nigerians that President Tinubu, an “avowed democrat,” remains “undistracted and unperturbed” by the opposition’s tactics.

Masari: No credible alternative to APC

Masari said that there was no credible alternative to the APC administration.

He spoke in Kafur, Kafur Local Government Area, during the flag-off of the campaign for the Katsina State local government elections scheduled for February 15.

He said: “The news making rounds in the social media that some politicians are teaming up for merger is nothing but regrouping of those who lost political favours in the APC, in terms of appointments or patronage.

“Their attempt to form an alliance will not divert the attention of APC from conceiving and implementing programmes that could assuage the pains of the common man.”

Masari urged Nigerians to exercise more patience with the APC administration, adding that the harsh economic hardship is a global phenomenon.

He added: “I am in APC today, tomorrow and always because I am not in the party for any political position or appointment.”

The former governor urged  APC loyalists to propagate the good works and ideals of the party, pleading with them to take any shortcoming as a human error.

The Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Political Matters, Alhaji Ibrahim Kabir-Masari, urged APC members to close ranks and work assiduously to ensure the success of the party at all times.

He said the president had awarded a contract for the reconstruction and upgrading of  the Zaria/Malumfashi/Funtua/Yashe Roads, in a bid to facilitate socio-economic activities.

The presidential aide also said the president had approved the establishment of a Federal College of Agricultural at Nabanje, Masari.

He added: “I can assure you that more developmental projects will be awarded to the people of the area in due course.”

‘Amaechi’s remarks inflammatory’

The Arewa Youths Consultative Forum (AYCF) chided Amaechi for making inflammatory remarks about the Tinubu administration.

It hailed the Minister of State for Defence, Bello Mohammed Matawalle, who warned the former Rivers governor against rhetorics.

AYCF President-General, Yerima Shettima, said Amaechi incited violence to destabilise the country.

Shettima said Matawalle had sent a clear message that such behaviour would not be tolerated and that those who engage in it would face consequences.

He said leaders at all levels should take a firm stand against any form of speech that could lead to violence or civil unrest.

Shettima said Amaechi’s comment constituted a threat to national security, adding that his action undermined the democratic process.

Lukman: Atiku, Obi should drop ambitions

Lukman advised Atiku, Obi, Senator Kwankwaso and El-Rufai to drop their presidential ambitions and provide leadership for the proposed opposition political party.

Lukman, former APC National Vice Chairman (Northcentral), said in a statement: “Based on laypersons legal knowledge, many of these politicians would be adjudged to being accessories, whether before or after, to our current political travesty.

“Some of them, on account of their influential roles in past administrations and the failures of those administrations should be humble enough to take a backseat to build a strong coalition to strengthen Nigerian politics.

“Instead, it is more like a case of unrepentant show of shame.”

Lukman lamented that the mindset of most opposition leaders is more inclined towards blocking political competition in the country.

He stressed: “The truth is that any political leader who is prioritising the debate about power shift over and above building a strong political party, which can set the rules and enforce it, may only be hiding behind such arguments to impose himself/herself and perhaps invariably continue the political practice of emperors and dictators.”

Atiku kicks

YESTERDAY’S reaction to opposition leaders’ criticisms of the Federal Government by the Presidency is an attack on democracy, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s Media Adviser Paul Ibe, has said.

The one-time vice president, former governors Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers) and Nasir El-Rufai have been under attack for condemning the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC) administration.

In a statement, Ibe claimed that Dare’s statement showed “the Tinubu administration plans to take the next election in the country as ‘a combat and a fight”.

He said the Tinubu government should unite and heal the nation and desist from making careless remarks about other countries.

The statement reads: “It therefore, becomes pertinent to tell the Tinubu administration that last week’s gathering of political leaders across the country is aimed at fostering the ethos of democracy in Nigeria, making sure that elections in Nigeria are credible, and that democracy is the vehicle for progress and social justice in the country.

“We find it curious that the Tinubu government would react to these noble ideals as ‘Machiavellian inclinations

[TheNation]

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has revealed how Ijebu leaders lobbied the then Head of State, the late Gen. Murtala Mohammed, to designate Sagamu as the capital of Ogun State when it was created in February 1976.

Obasanjo, speaking 49 years after the creation of the state, disclosed that the Ijebu leaders argued against Abeokuta being chosen as the state capital, citing land constraints.

He made this revelation at the induction ceremony and Gala Night of the Egba Legacy Network, held at the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library in Abeokuta.

The former President recounted his encounter with Gen. Mohammed, saying, “When we wanted to establish Ogun State, our brothers from Ijebu did their exercise very well. They said we don’t have land, and they campaigned against making Abeokuta the state capital. When we got to the discussion table, they proposed Sagamu instead. 

“This place we call Ogun State, before 1932, it was named Abeokuta Province, including Ijebu. When Ijebu Province was to be established, it was DO that was in Ijebu.

“They said we don’t have land, that was why it is called Abeokuta. My boss, Murtala Mohammed, had been briefed and agreed that Sagamu should be the state capital. He said, ‘We are going that way.’ But I told him, ‘Since we are going to have Kano State, then Rago should be the capital of Kano.’”

Obasanjo said this response angered Murtala Mohammed, who lashed out at him.

“He attacked me, saying, ‘How dare you?’ And I said, ‘How dare you too?’ That was how we ended the discussion.”

Obasanjo urged the Egba Legacy Network to document Abeokuta’s rich history and ensure that key figures in the development of Egbaland are recognised in their heritage tourism project.

He emphasised that Abeokuta’s proximity to Lagos should be leveraged to turn the ancient city into a major tourist attraction.

Earlier,  the Osi Apagunpote of Egbaland and Chairman of the Egba Legacy Network, Chief Lai Labode Jnr, charged new inductees to work towards the beautification and development of Abeokuta.

Labode explained that the group aimed to preserve the culture, traditions, and history of Egbaland while celebrating past and present heroes.

Among the projects planned is the Egba History and Heritage Area, which will feature statues of iconic Egba personalities, including Sir Adetokunbo Ademola, Prof. Saburi Biobaku, Madam Efunroye Tinubu, Fela Anikulapo Kuti, Chief Beko Ransome-Kuti, Chief MKO Abiola, Ayinla Omowura, and Chief Olusegun Obasanjo.

Labode highlighted Ibara GRA, Oke-Mosan-Kobape Expressway, and Alake Palace as areas that will witness the first phase of the transformation.

He explained that the Egba Legacy Network, founded 18 months ago, consists of professionals committed to uniting Egba sons and daughters across the world to drive socioeconomic development.

[Punch]