The once-tight relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State is reportedly under severe strain, as mounting evidence suggests a widening political rift with far-reaching implications for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of 2027.

Although both men have refrained from making public statements on the matter, top APC insiders at the state, zonal, and national levels confirm that a subtle but significant breakdown has occurred in the once-formidable alliance.

President Tinubu’s recent visit to Lagos further exposed the fractured ties. On arrival at the Murtala Muhammed Airport, eyewitnesses told The Guardian that the president bypassed a handshake with Governor Sanwo-Olu, greeting Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat instead—a move many described as deliberate.

Sources say the president’s media aides were instructed to edit footage of the arrival, particularly scenes that could stoke speculation about the fallout.

In a further departure from protocol, Sanwo-Olu was allegedly excluded from escorting the president to his Ikoyi residence, a role traditionally reserved for the state governor. That responsibility reportedly fell to Hamzat.

Missing in Action: Sanwo-Olu’s Absence Raises Eyebrows

The Lagos governor’s absence from several key events during the president’s stay—especially the 50th anniversary of ECOWAS held at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs—has deepened concerns.

Traditionally, the state governor is expected to deliver a goodwill message at such events, especially when held in Victoria Island, where ECOWAS was founded. When contacted, a member of the governor’s media team said he had “an important engagement elsewhere,” a response many observers dismissed as evasive.

Fallout Traced to Attempted Ouster of Lagos Assembly Speaker

According to multiple sources, the fallout may have been triggered by an alleged attempt by Sanwo-Olu to unseat the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa.

Reports indicate that 32 of the 40 lawmakers had signed a resolution for Obasa’s removal, allegedly backed by Sanwo-Olu, with plans to replace him with Mojisola Meranda. However, President Tinubu reportedly intervened, halting the plot and reinstating Obasa—an action interpreted as a stern warning to Sanwo-Olu.

A senior Lagos politician said, “That attempt was seen as a betrayal of Tinubu’s political structure. In Lagos politics, that’s not something you recover from easily.”

Sanwo-Olu Sidelined in APC Primaries

The ripple effects were evident during the APC local government primaries ahead of the July 12, 2025 council elections. Unlike in previous years, Sanwo-Olu had little say in selecting chairmanship candidates across Lagos’ 57 LGAs and LCDAs.

In a break from tradition, none of the shortlisted candidates was directly affiliated with the governor’s camp. The once-powerful Governance Advisory Council (GAC), often aligned with the governor’s agenda, was also stripped of its influence, following what insiders describe as a directive from the presidency to reduce patronage and reclaim control of the grassroots base.

Absence from APC National Events Deepens Isolation

Sanwo-Olu’s absence from the APC National Policy and Performance Review Summit in Abuja—where Tinubu was formally endorsed for a second term—was seen by many as the clearest indication of his isolation.

Speculation is rife that the governor may have been barred from the Presidential Villa, following the assembly rebellion and other perceived acts of disloyalty.

Achimugu Controversy Adds Fuel

Adding to the tension is the controversy surrounding Ms. Aisha Achimugu, a businesswoman facing EFCC investigations over alleged financial misconduct.

Though the anti-graft agency has denied any political link between her probe and the governor, insiders suggest rivals within Lagos APC used the scandal to further erode Sanwo-Olu’s credibility.

Echoes of Tinubu’s Past Fallouts with Protégés

Political observers note a pattern in Tinubu’s political career: protégés who rise through his influence eventually fall out of favour when they begin asserting independence.

Former governors Babatunde Fashola and Akinwunmi Ambode faced similar treatment. Fashola was nearly denied a second term in 2011, while Ambode was ousted after one term in 2019—paving the way for Sanwo-Olu, who was perceived then as more loyal.

Now, it appears Sanwo-Olu is walking the same path, with diminishing influence and increasing marginalisation.

Critics say this cycle of loyalty-based politics has disrupted governance in Lagos. Fashola’s urban renewal projects were shelved by Ambode, who in turn saw his major transport initiatives abandoned by Sanwo-Olu.

“Each time a fallout happens, critical projects are discarded to make room for new political interests,” a political analyst told The Guardian.

“The biggest losers are Lagosians who are caught in this revolving door of unfinished development.”