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Bitcoin (BTC) is under significant pressure following President Donald Trump's announcement of new trade tariffs, raising concerns among investors about a potential decline to $71,000. According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, the crypto is experiencing "very high risk" conditions due to these tariffs.
On April 2, Bitcoin's value dropped nearly 8.5% in response to the tariff announcement, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500, which managed a slight gain of 0.7% on the same day. Edwards highlighted that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. business expectations is reminiscent of previous economic downturns observed in 2000, 2008, and 2022.
He noted that the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey has fallen below 15 for the first time since early 2024, a level indicative of severe market sentiment.
In his latest market analysis, Edwards cautioned that if tariffs exceed current expectations, it could lead to heightened volatility in Bitcoin's price. While acknowledging that the survey data can sometimes provide misleading signals, he urged caution, particularly if the tariff situation escalates or corporate profit margins begin to decline.
Capriole Investments has identified $91,000 as a critical resistance level for Bitcoin, suggesting that a daily close above this mark could signal a bullish trend. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to hold above this threshold, a decline to the $71,000 range may trigger a substantial rebound.
Market analysts are also monitoring trends in U.S. liquidity, as the Federal Reserve has started to ease tight financial policies. This shift could bode well for crypto, with predictions of an influx in the M2 money supply potentially supporting a price recovery in Bitcoin as early as May.
[CoinMarketCap]