“I once quoted a report in the Washington Post of May 4, 2016 which spoke of an oil-rich nation that should be rich but “instead, it’s becoming a failed state”; that had been run down so much that it “can’t afford to brew its own beer, stay in its own time zone, or even have its own people show up to work more than two times a week.” How did that country get here? The report describes the tragedy as an entirely man-made catastrophe. “Economic mismanagement at a world-historical scale had barely left it with enough money to even, well, pay for printing money anymore.” That country got here by “spending more than it had and not having as much as it should.” That is a country that thought of spending money, and did spend money that it did not earn. “You can’t redistribute oil profits if there aren’t oil profits to redistribute,” the report says the country did just that and followed it up with policies like the president replacing “people who knew what they were doing with people he knew would be loyal to him at the state-owned oil company.” That action, among others, it says, scared oil companies out. That country is not Nigeria. It is Venezuela, Nigeria’s twin brother.”

Nigeria is a drama, an entertainment. Listen to the ‘Wahala’ singer, Portable, as he wonders why anyone would want him to join this week’s proposed protests. Yes, he admits that he joined protests in the past. But he says that was when he was poor. “Now I am rich…You want a rich man to protest?” He asks cynically. He does not want an answer. Portable’s video looks like it would be the end of all protests if we all became wealthy. The government should love it. I do.

The government and Portable join forces to beg you not to protest on August 1. I don’t care if you protest or you protect your turf. All I crave is no violence. I urge you to look deeply at other areas of our governance. Look at the laws being made and the laws being interpreted. They can make your protests useless, your bad worse and the worse disastrous. Can you remember what Judge Gideon John Tucker said about lawmakers and the laws they make? The American, in 1866, wrote in a court record: “No man’s life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session.” Fortunately, at this moment, our own legislators are on break. Or how would we have combined their presence with threats of protests from the north to the south?

However, whether the lawmakers are in session or not, they are still working very hard and harder like obedient Boxer in George Orwell’s Animal Farm. Boxer is that Orwellian horse who believes strongly that “if Comrade Napoleon says it, (then) it must be right.” His motto is: “I will work harder.” With them, Tinubu is the Big Brother; always right. A democracy can have a bumbling executive but it must not have a stupid, servile legislature and a deliberately ‘illiterate’ judiciary. The country is in the throes of a to-be-or-not-to-be protest over these very bad times. In desperate moments as we are, the legislature and the judiciary should be stabilizing forces. Sadly, they are not. They’ve willingly donated their freedom to the Villa. I heard an elder say no one begs to be sold into slavery. It is not in all cases. I remember a character, Kent, in Shakespeare’s King Lear whose ambition is to be servile to power:

King Lear: Who are you?

Kent: A very honest-hearted fellow, and as poor as the king.

King Lear: If you’re as poor a subject as the king, then you’re certainly poor enough. What do you want?

Kent: To serve.

Lear: Whom do you want to serve?

Kent: You.

King Lear: Do you know me, fellow?

Kent: No, sir. But there’s something in your face that makes me want to call you master.

King Lear: What’s that in my face?

Kent: Authority.

What Kent sees in King Lear’s face is exactly what Senate president, Godswill Akpabio, and his men see in President Bola Tinubu. The ‘authority’ in the cap of the president makes our lawmakers desperately seek to serve Tinubu and call him master.

This president is lucky to have Akpabio as Senate president. If President Olusegun Obasanjo had had him as the head of the National Assembly, he would have got his third term. Today, there is a bill before the Senate seeking a single-term of six years for the president and the governors. Thirty-five senators sponsored the bill. If the president wants this Senate to pass the bill today and the implementation to start this moment with him as the first beneficiary, his will shall be done. The lawmakers will do it “in national interest.” The Supreme Court will approve it.

There are other matters that should concern you. A justice of the Supreme Court addressed tenure extension in the court’s recent judgment on Local Government funds. He wrote: “Under Section 135 (3) of the Constitution, the tenure of 4 (four) years for the president provided for by Section 135(2) thereof, shall be extended for periods not exceeding ‘a period of six months at any time’ by a resolution of the National Assembly, if it ‘is not practicable to hold elections’. By the same token, by a law of a State House of Assembly, the tenure of local government councils can be legally extended, for any reason, such as insecurity or war, if it becomes impracticable or impossible for elections into the local government councils to be conducted. The mandate given to an elected local government council is the mandate of the electorate of that local government area and if the tenure is extended, it is the people’s mandate that is extended…” I found that reasoning quite ingenious! Was that point one of the issues canvassed before the court? Read it again.

Someone said Nigeria is a Netflix series. Two deputy governors in Edo; two speakers in Rivers, two emirs in Kano. All courtesy of the judiciary. We wait to see the next set of twins in our mad political ward. But while we wait, I salute the spell makers who started the blockbuster protest drama going on. They have corralled this government into working for their scheme. They couldn’t have given better oxygen to their protest agenda than the government spin doctors have done so far. August 1 may be an anti-climax; the audience is satisfied already.

Meanwhile, the Bola Tinubu government has been dancing to Da Grin’s music lately:

“T’an ba s’eyin bi aya,

Won a s’are kabakaba.”

The song is too onomatopoeic to accept the corruption of translation. I should just say it warns that you will run helter-skelter if you cross the line of decency. Is the government truly in panic mode because of threats of protests? Or is it acting its own scene in the tragedy that mocks the people’s pains? The Villa has become a house of feasts. It hosts kings and priests; princes and principals. And when they come out, they tell the hungry: “Peace!” I also join them to chant peace be upon Nigeria. If the protest organizers want to protest despite the state’s pleas and threats, they should please tell looters of stores and warehouses not to come out. They should also tell those who killed and ate human beings in the name of protests in 2022 that they are not welcome. All these happened during the EndSARS crisis and they were not funny. They gave activism a very bad name. I don’t think anyone wants such mayhem added to the headache of hunger in every home.

The protest drama has got an interlude. The Dangote/NNPC series. In size, strength and beauty, the Dangote horse in Lekki fits the race and the battle. But Aliko Dangote’s observers demand to know why the super-rich man started looking for feedstock after building a refinery. No Muslim prays first before doing ablution. “May not an ass know when the cart draws the horse?” That is Shakespeare again in King Lear, Act 1, Scene 4. No one does that without injuring the horse and stalling the cart. Why did he do that? We are talking of a master sculptor here, not a woodpecker. Cricket (Lántètè in Yoruba) was asked why he fixed his wedding date and on that very day commenced cooking the expected baby’s teething medicine. He answered that whatever should be fast should never be delayed.

I want to believe that Dangote did not become this super rich by doing things in the wrong order. No. It just happened that: “Now a new king arose over Egypt who did not know Joseph…” – Exodus, chapter 1, verse 8. Whether in Egypt or Israel, the one who trusts in their chariots and takes things for granted always have their journey extended well into the night. Even those who claimed affinity with God roamed the wilderness for 40 years. But the refinery is a national asset that should be made to work. This is where a pro-business government should come in to still the boiling waters. And I think it has. NNPC’s Alsatian appears on a leash. The investment is huge. Nigerians say they need that refinery.

There will be hunger, anger and protests where 20 bean cakes serve two hundred masquerades. The next scene flows directly from the Dangote/NNPC Act. The scene is where 200 million Nigerians scramble for proceeds of 200,000 barrels of crude oil. Nigeria’s daily crude production is about 1.4 million barrels. But the country is left with 200,000 barrels per day to finance its budget. You wonder why and ask where the remaining 1.2 million barrels go? The government we have, and the ones we have had, helped us to eat tomorrow’s food yesterday. In simple prose, today’s crude production pays for money already collected and spent. That is why the government is broke and has gone for the broke; that is why the government squeezes honey out of us. It is a revelation that shows that things are worse for Nigeria than is ever imagined.

I once quoted a report in the Washington Post of May 4, 2016 which spoke of an oil-rich nation that should be rich but “instead, it’s becoming a failed state”; that had been run down so much that it “can’t afford to brew its own beer, stay in its own time zone, or even have its own people show up to work more than two times a week.” How did that country get here? The report describes the tragedy as an entirely man-made catastrophe. “Economic mismanagement at a world-historical scale had barely left it with enough money to even, well, pay for printing money anymore.” That country got here by “spending more than it had and not having as much as it should.” That is a country that thought of spending money, and did spend money that it did not earn. “You can’t redistribute oil profits if there aren’t oil profits to redistribute,” the report says the country did just that and followed it up with policies like the president replacing “people who knew what they were doing with people he knew would be loyal to him at the state-owned oil company.” That action, among others, it says, scared oil companies out. That country is not Nigeria. It is Venezuela, Nigeria’s twin brother.

The August protest will come and go; the problem of Nigeria will remain. Protests have failed to melt the hardened heart of the rulers of Venezuela. Suffering-and-smiling has failed them too. The country has continued to dwell in a maelstrom of violence and grinding poverty. The United Nations keeps a tab on what goes on in that country. Its report says, today, Venezuela suffers from one of the highest rates of undernourishment in South America, and 68% of the people struggle to afford food. The country faces a humanitarian crisis with nearly 8 million people (out of 29.4 million) taking refuge in other countries. Some 2,000 people flee Venezuela every day, displaced because of rising crime and violence and shortages of food, medicine and essential services. It held a presidential election yesterday.

August is this week. The country is on edge. People with the right oracle say the actual protesters are the entity called the north. They say the aggrieved harbor the anger of the conned. And they cannot be named. You would think that those who offended them would know how to appease them. Both sides should know what they ate that is giving them constipation. They should also tell us the broth they cooked that is setting the house ablaze.

Nigeria’s drama, like Venezuela’s, is unending. Every Scene is linked to an Act. The link could be through the characters, or the theme, or the sub-themes. The plot is predictable. So much is happening right now. So much may still happen. May Thursday, August 1 meet us in peace.

Organizers of the planned August 1 to 10, 2024 hardship protest in Nigeria have unveiled details of the protest upon the request of the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun.

The details, including venues and locations, where the intended protests would take place were contained in a letter by Ebun-Olu Adegboruwa, SAN, attorney to the organizers, addressed to the IGP.

Meanwhile, the Adegboruwa asked the IGP to provide the contact details of the Police officers designated to cover the said protest.

“We act as solicitors to the TAKE IT BACK MOVEMENT, and refer to our letter on the above subject matter dated July 26, 2024, and your response thereto dated July 29, 2024, Ref. CJ:2400/IGP.SEC/ABJ/VOL.1/10, which we have passed to our Client with instructions to respond thereto as follows.

“Our Client acknowledges the commitment of the Inspector-General of Police towards complying with extant legislations granting citizens the right to hold public meetings, public rallies and public processions and the lawful discharge of the obligations placed upon the police to provide adequate coverage and protection at the venues.

“We shall be glad to have the contact details of the Deputy Inspectors-General of Police, Assistant Inspectors-General of Police, and the Commissioners of Police designated to cover the said public meetings, public rallies and public processions, to ensure a peaceful and crisis-free outing.

“We shall update you with further details over time, hoping that the above information suffices for planning and strategy. We are delighted to attend the meeting with the Inspector-General of Police as requested. However, to achieve enlarged participation, we request that the said meeting be held virtually, to give room for all stakeholders to attend. Specifically, we will be led in the said meeting by Mr. Femi Falana, SAN, the NBA, other lawyers and civil society organizations. We await the Zoom link for the said virtual meeting”, the letter stated.

Recall that IGP Egbetokun had agreed to provide security for the planned protesters in a letter addressed to Adegboruwa on Monday.

The Police had also invited Adegboruwa for a meeting on Tuesday.

This development comes as last-minute planning to schedule hardship protests amid the rising cost of living in Nigeria.

[DailyPost]

The politics of monopoly and oligarchy are familiar phenomena in Nigeria and beyond. During General Sani Abacha’s military rule in the 1990s, while working at the Federal Ministry of Finance, I witnessed the plight of a retired military officer turned entrepreneur. His product was threatened by a competitor who crashed the price of own goods to make that of the ex-officer uncompetitive. It was suspected that the regime used the competitor to deal with the veteran, who later served in a civilian government.

That experience made me wary of monopolistic tendencies, often leading to concerns about the rise of oligarchies. For instance, Aliko Dangote’s group of companies in Nigeria and Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries in India have dominant influence in their respective countries, raising concerns about the long-term effects of monopolistic tendencies.

In 2005, the administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo endorsed the formation of the Transnational Corporation of Nigeria (TCN), later renamed Transcorp. This conglomerate sought to acquire government-owned assets and venture into various sectors of the economy.

The founding owners were private sector operators and billionaires including Dangote, Femi Otedola, Jim Ovia, Tony Elumelu, Festus Odimegwu, Bernard Longe, Jacobs Moyo Ajekigbe, Funsho Lawal, Tony Ezeanna, Adegboyega Olulade, and the late Waziri Mohammed. The then Director General, Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), Ndi Okereke-Onyiuke, was Board of Directors chairman, while a staff member Nicholas Okoye was the technical secretary and business strategy adviser.

In July 2005, President Obasanjo launched Transcorp in the Presidential Villa, Abuja. It was, therefore, not surprising that it benefitted immensely from the government’s privatisation policy, as it raised N16 billion through private placement and acquired significant public assets. These included a 71 per cent stake in NITEL, the Nicon-Noga Hilton Hotel, a 400,000-barrel per-day refinery concession, an oil bloc for upstream oil and gas operations, among others.

While the early promoters of the mega-firm later became prominent advocates for Obasanjo’s alleged third-term agenda, there was a controversy surrounding the ex-President acquisition of millions of shares through a blind trust fund financed by a popular bank. For whatever reasons, some years after the acquisition, a number of the company founders appeared to have parted ways.

In an article in June 2005 titled “President Dangote of Nigeria”, I cautioned business moguls about the dangers of retrogressive monopoly, which weakens government regulations and kills healthy competition. Instead, I suggested that private sector players deploy infrastructural facilities and equipment to gain fair market share rather than acquiring public institutions at giveaway prices.

Dangote expanded his businesses into manufacturing like Mukesh Ambani, the wealthiest man in India, who is reputed to have lavished over $800 million on the wedding of his son, Anant Ambani, to Radhika Merchant, the daughter of Indian pharma tycoons, Viren and Shaila Merchant. While Dangote has a flour milling company that produces wheat flour, pasta, noodles, etc, Ambani’s investments include retail outlets that operate supermarkets and online trading platforms.

Similarly, besides his telecommunications company offering 4G and 5G services, comprising data and other digital products, Ambani also produces films, television shows, and digital content through his media and entertainment company. He equally operates large power generation plants and distribution companies.

Dangote additionally operates fertilizer and cement corporations in Nigeria and other African countries. He has also heavily invested in agriculture, focusing on producing rice, sugarcane, and tomato paste. In addition, Dangote refines salt and sugar for domestic consumption and export.

As nonpartisan and detribalised businesspeople, both Dangote and Ambani are generous to different political parties, religious groups, and cultural institutions. They also employ elite graduates from various ethnic backgrounds and engage youths in multiple roles in their enterprises.

The giant cash cow of Ambani is his Reliance Industry’s Jamnagar oil refinery, commissioned in 1999, with the capacity to produce 668,000 barrels of crude daily, which has since been upgraded to 1,240,000 barrels per day. The refinery has enhanced India’s energy security by providing a reliable source of petroleum products, contributing to the country’s GDP growth, and becoming a key player in India’s energy sector.

When Dangote mooted the idea of building an oil refinery, as the Nigerian government failed to revive the existing ones or create new ones, many believed he was on the trajectory of receiving the usual incentives he gets from the government as one of Nigeria’s most prominent private sector players.

The success story of Ambani’s refinery is attributed to the active support of the Indian government in encouraging investments in the energy sector through support that includes tax incentives, subsidies for importing crude oil, enabling the exportation of refined products, and relaxation of regulations to allow efficient operations. The government’s monetary policies enabled banks and financial institutions to provide loans and credit facilities for indigenous projects.

With the government’s magnanimity to the industry, India’s economy benefits from Ambani’s refinery, with thousands of jobs created, infrastructure development in the host communities, and foreign exchange earnings from exporting refined products. The company’s operation also reduces dependence on imported refined products while generating significant revenue for the government through taxes, duties, and royalties. 

Meanwhile, within just a few months of its operation this year, the multibillion-dollar Dangote refinery has created thousands of jobs, directly and indirectly, while stimulating economic growth. Whilst there was excitement that the refinery would increase the domestic refining capacity and reduce reliance on fuel importation, thus decreasing inflationary pressures, the regulator recently publicly demarketed the company’s petroleum products.

Speaking on behalf of the government, Managing Director of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Engineer Farouk Ahmed claimed that the quality of products from the Dangote Refinery was inferior, citing a purported higher sulphur content of the diesel produced.

Claiming that the refinery had not yet been issued an operational license, and concern over monopoly and energy security, the NMDPRA pushed an argument for the continued importation of petroleum products from outside the country. The management of the refinery has denied the allegations of either producing high sulphur content diesel and an attempt at becoming a monopoly.

The painful irony is the seeming demarketing of the Dangote brand by his brethren from the North, after Southerners had provided him with an enabling environment for the business that would generate foreign exchange earnings, contribute to Nigeria’s economic diversification, and ultimately stabilise the naira. The Northerners need rethinking.

Examples abound of how great nations implement policies to support indigenous industries through protectionist measures that give them a competitive edge in relation to foreign businesses. This is done through legitimate preferential concessions, financial incentives, creation of pathways for market access, regulatory backing, and offers of equity participation. If the Nigerian system cannot support indigenous enterprises, it shouldn’t be seen as demarketing them.

Yushau A. Shuaib is Editor-in-Chief at PRNigeria, and Economic Confidential
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Till date, I have not still been able to finish reading this enigma’s epic, “The Man Died”, since I picked it up in 1979 (45 whole years ago). It is a 1972 non-fiction book exploring his experiences in prison during his 22 months imprisonment by federal authorities for hobnobbing with the Biafran successionist leader, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu. I just pity literary Lilliputians like me. I am referring to Professor Akinwade Oluwole Soyinka, an unusual homo sapien. The likes of him – such as Gani Fawehinmi, Chinua Achebe, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, Ayodele Awojobi, Bala Usman, Adaka Boro, Chike Obi, Martin Luther King Jnr, Albert Einstein, Willian Shakespeare, et al- come like a comet, only once in a generation. He is Africa’s first Nobel Laureate in any field. His was in literature in 1986, a mere 52 years old. The joke of his acquiring this Olympian heights states that some prospective Nobel laureate candidates had been invited for interview for the rare diadem. It was said that when Kongi engaged in his staccato linguistic masturbation and literary calisthenics, the mesmerized interviewing white panel which had become soaked in his phonetic stupor simply told him to take a bow and go. They told him he had already won. Yes. He had got the white interviewers so inebriated by his virtually incomprehensible “oyinbo” grammar that they preferred to let him go quietly and have their peace.

Soyinka is many things rolled into one. Like amoeba, he is shapeless. Like an onion, he has many layers. Foremost nobel laureate; literary icon; playwright; humanist; poet; essayist; teacher; political activist; dramatist, singer; rights activist; hunter; crusader; cultural ambassador; Seadog founder; globally revered; cerebral intellectual; wine connoisseur; fecundity personified; archaist and more. This man is undoubtedly a tiger and lion merged together, even though he once famously defied this belief by many to declare that “a tiger does not proclaim its tigritude; he pounces”.
Though some faceless people that the literary icon himself once described as “internet crawlers” once attempted, most vainly, to diminish the towering stature of this hero, he remains peerless; in comparable. The truth remains that the great Kongi is far way ahead and shoulders higher than those in the Nigerian pantheon of literary icons and deities that he belongs to.
Wole Soyinka has taught a whole generation of literary giants. At the University of Ife (now OAU) in the 70s, where he was a professor of comparative literature, we rookies in the then part 1 (they call it 100 level now) would gather at the University theatre to listen to the words of wisdom of this literary icon and intellectual prodigy. Even the great Ola Rotimi, Femi Osofisan and other literary giants deferred to his intimidating credentials. He was also a great singer and a rebel of some sort. Was that not why he was detained for 22 months? You can now imagine me having the honour of passing through such fire eaters like Soyinka, including invited lecturers to give us pep talks. The likes of Gani Fawehinmi, Dr Tai Solarin, Prof Bade Onimode, Com. Ola Oni, Chris Okolie, Omafume Onoge, Sam Aluko, Eskor Toyo, Toye Olorode, Claude Ake, Niyi Oniroro, Edwin Madunagu, Ikenna Nzimiro, et al. I read English for three years before switching over to law. I was forced to lose one academic session because of my love for law (climbing down from Part 3 English to Part 2 Law).
Permit me to share my insights into two of his plays as it is impossible to plough through his trailer-load of literary writings.
I once read the nobel laureate’s “JERO’S METAMORPHOSIS”, a play staged in 1960 (I was barely 2 years old then); and published in 1963. I also read Soyinka’s “THE TRIALS OF BROTHER JERO”.

In the former play, Jero was in possession of a confidential file which revealed government’s plans to transform the beach into a public prosecution ground and tourists’ centre. The satirical play was about the willy ways Jero tried to unite all the church leaders operating at the beach and make them form one church, with him as the sole leader. Soyinka was satirically decrying the hypocritical way Nigerians practised the Christian religion.
He was shocked at the obsequious and unquestioning devotion that converts and adherents displayed towards their manipulative spiritual leaders. In “The Trials of Brother Jero” first published in 1964, Soyinka mocked the proselytizing Church preachers, who did not even have churches (as did brother Jero) and so preached in public places. He highlighted the transformation of these leaders with religious titles of Bishop, Pastor and Prophet, to military titles such as General, Colonel, Sergeant, etc.
Soyinka depicted church leaders as deceptive, corrupt, fraudulent, politically ambitious and abandoning their flock in pursuit of mercantilist and mundane cravings. Thus, Like Karl Marx, Soyinka satirised these crafty preachers who deceived their somnambulistic followers.
The play exposed the contradictions in blind faith and slavish following, and satired the too many social and political imbalances in Nigeria of the 60s. The ills Soyinka kicked against in the early 60s are even worse today. Have you not seen viral videos where so-called Pastors urinated in the mouths of their hypnotised worshippers, or farted on their faces, or sat on their heads, with yet some other members washing his legs on their heads?

They are told that is the only way to get rich or experience paradise. Religion had been termed opium of the people by Karl Marx, used as an instrument to fight wars as beast in Europe, instead of using it to give solace to the soul of man. Soyinka had theorised along that line.
Soyinka’s works may have humour; but he deploys his lyricism and poetry to entertain, enlighten and throw up topical issues, steeped in European mythology and the Yoruba spiritual and cultural traditions. To have won the Anisfield Wolf Lifetime Achievement Award as Soyinka did 2013 is a testament to his global essence.
Perhaps, Soyinka’s most famous quote is “I don’t know any other way to live than to wake up everyday armed with my convictions, not yielding them to the threat of danger and to the power and force of people who might despise me” (September 2, 2021). He believes in standing up to what is right even in the face of adversity and danger. Wole Soyinka wrote 52 books in 64 years. The books consist of plays, novels, poetry collections, essays, memoirs and translated works. Soyinka has written virtually on every topic – corruption, racism, religion, tradition, colonialism, identity crisis, neo-colonialism, greed, societal decay, empathy, rituals; fate, freewill, African traditional religion, evil, good, parenting skills, material exploitation, birth and death, social justice, survival; perseverance and so on. Surely, this man in Wole Soyinka has not died. This is because he does not “keep silent in the face of tyranny”.
As you hit your nonegenerian year (90), here is wishing this unusual human being many more years on mother earth in good health and peace that passeth all understanding. Yours sir, is Genesis 6:3. Happy birthday, sir.

Starting from the 1st of August, which falls on next Thursday, disgruntled Nigerians are planning to initiate a ten-day street protest under the hashtags #EndBadGovernance2024, TinubuMustGo, and others.

In response to the fear instilled in many Nigerians by the threats from the protest organizers—who have warned of severe consequences (which, to be fair, is a lawful action in a democracy if conducted peacefully)—those who can afford it are stocking up on groceries and other essentials to last at least ten days, should the protests actually take place.

While people have prepared for potential food shortages, concerns remain about the safety of individuals and property, which are common issues during street protests. Despite the organizers' promises of a peaceful demonstration, the various reasons behind the protest—#EndBadGovernance, HungerProtest, TinubuMustGo, etc.—raise concerns.

These worries are amplified by the disastrous outcomes of the 2020 #EndSARS protests. The youth organized these protests to voice their dissatisfaction and anger towards the Nigerian Police unit, SARS (Special Anti-Robbery Squad), known for its brutality and extortion. Although the protests started with good intentions, they were derailed by individuals with malicious agendas, which has left the nation's leaders feeling uneasy.

The authorities are justifiably concerned because it's been less than five years since the #EndSARS incident, from which the country has yet to fully recover due to the massive loss of life and property caused by likely criminal elements who infiltrated the initially peaceful protest and caused chaos.

The current anxiety among those in power is exacerbated by the fact that the levels of hunger and anger in the country, spurred by the recent removal of subsidies on petrol, naira, and electricity, are much higher than during the 2019/2020 period when the COVID-19 pandemic led to a national lockdown and economic shutdown, making life extremely challenging, particularly for those who live hand-to-mouth.

This bleak outlook on the coming days prompted the title of my piece this week, which may seem unusual to readers. I ask for their understanding as the odd title is meant to reflect the dire situation described in the opening paragraphs, and it represents my contemplation of the potential consequences we might face if the planned street protests materialize on August 1.

As I pondered the upcoming protest, which I believe is almost certain to escalate into riots—as was the case in Kenya on June 25/26, where 40 people tragically lost their lives and a vast amount of property was destroyed—the thought that came to mind was: "Should I kill myself or have a cup of coffee? In the end, it takes more courage to live than to take one's own life."

Before proceeding further, I want to clarify that the quote used in the title is not my own. It is attributed to the French philosopher Albert Camus, who was also a novelist, playwright, and journalist. Camus is best known for his concept of "absurdism," which suggests that humanity's search for meaning and purpose is fundamentally at odds with the indifferent nature of the universe.

The absurdity of the current crisis our country has been facing over the past year, and the potential crisis we may face starting Thursday, August 1, if the planned protests occur, led me to ponder the stark choices reflected in the title, “Should I Kill Myself Or Have A Cup Of Coffee?”. Personally, I know I will choose coffee, but there are valid reasons why our frustrated compatriots might feel compelled to protest the tangible hardships they are experiencing.

Hence the question posed in the title is not just about me; but it is directed towards our young population, who may be driven to join the protests out of hunger and anger. This emotional state could lead them to act impulsively, potentially putting themselves at risk.

Given this context, I urge everyone to approach the situation with caution if the protests go ahead as planned. My appeal is grounded in the philosophical insights of Albert Camus, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1957 "for his significant literary work, which with clear-sighted earnestness illuminates the problems of the human conscience in our times." Camus's ideas continue to influence contemporary thought and culture, making him one of the most important and thought-provoking figures of the 20th century. This piece is intended to raise awareness among potential protesters by reflecting on some of Camus's thought-provoking quotes, which are interpreted below in the context of our current situation, in the hope that they may resonate with Nigerians considering protest.

1. "In the depth of winter, I finally learned that within me there lay an invincible summer."

   This means that despite the hardships we are currently facing, there is a potential for a brighter future, which we need to remain hopeful about.

2. "You will never be happy if you continue to search for what happiness consists of. You will never live if you are looking for the meaning of life."

   This suggests that instead of constantly seeking happiness, we should focus on making the best of our current situations, embodying the resilient 'Nigerian Spirit.'

3. "The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion."

   To me, this means that we can resist and overcome challenges that threaten to derail us by embodying a spirit of resilience and determination.

4. "You can't create experience; you must undergo it."

   This implies that by enduring the current difficulties, we will gain valuable experience that will help us handle even tougher situations in the future.

5. "Life is very long when you're angry, and very short when you're happy."

   This is straightforward: when we are angry, time seems to drag, but when we are happy, it seems to fly by.

6. "The only real progress lies in learning to be wrong."

   This suggests the importance of recognizing and admitting when we are mistaken and choosing to refrain from actions if the timing isn't right.

7. "I would rather live my life as if there is a God and die to find out there isn't than live as if there isn't and die to find out there is."

   This encourages us to live with faith and put God/Allah at the center of our actions.

As an eternal optimist, and a trained diplomat I hope my appeal resonates with the protesters and helps calm their anger. For the government, my advice is twofold. First, it needs to strengthen the relationship between the leadership and the citizens. Currently, there is a noticeable disconnect between the government and the people it governs. Communication between the administration and many Nigerians, especially those active on social media, has been too confrontational. Regardless of whether these individuals—who are likely supporters of the opposition—voted for President Tinubu or not, the current administration should make efforts to engage and win them over.

It is recommended that the government actively engage in dialogue with the youth, who are yet to see many proposed interventions come to fruition. Failing to communicate effectively with them can be compared to the public relations cliché of winking at a pretty lady in a dark room—you know what you're doing, but nobody does,which means you're not actually communicating. Without engaging with disillusioned, possibly frustrated, and angry youths, how can they understand and support the government's programs and agenda? This is where the role of the youth minister becomes crucial. However, the youth minister appears to be conspicuously absent or ineffective.

If the current government can negotiate with the Nigerian Labor Congress (NLC) and agree to increase the minimum wage from N30,000 to N70,000—a 125% raise—then there is no reason why our hungry and angry compatriots cannot be persuaded to hold back from protesting. According to media reports, President Bola Tinubu is currently consulting with various stakeholders, including faith leaders, traditional rulers, and others, which is a positive step. However, the youth seem to be missing from these discussions.

Remarkably, President Tinubu’s approach contrasts with the administration of Goodluck Jonathan, which failed to engage in consultations, leading to his failure to prevent the protests that forced him to reverse the decision to remove the petrol subsidy in 2012. The open consultations by President Tinubu's administration suggest that Jonathan's administration lacked the strategic skills to manage the situation, which contributed to his being labeled as clueless by opposition parties and ultimately losing power.

The reality is that every Nigerian leader in the past four decades has understood the potential unsavory fallout from removing subsidies on petrol, the naira, and electricity. Even military leaders like Olusegun Obasanjo, Muhammadu Buhari, Ibrahim Babangida, and Sani Abacha did not eliminate subsidies. However,there was a consensus among the major presidential candidates in the 2023 elections that subsidies needed to be removed due to the corruption associated with them. Unlike previous leaders, Tinubu has shown the boldness to remove these subsidies and is standing firm in his decision, believing it is in the best interest of the country to eliminate a system that has nearly suffocated the nation.

As a skilled political strategist, he has been using all the tools at his disposal to navigate the challenges facing his presidency. His adept handling of the upcoming street protests, expected to begin on August 1, has been commendable so far. However, the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria needs to communicate directly with the Nigerian public through a live media session where anyone can call in and share their views with him. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as our President, should not avoid this important responsibility.

We have also not seen legislators and members of the president’s cabinet reaching out to their constituents via video or direct engagements enlightening them about the programs and policies of government and the need for them to eschew bitterness and should not engage in violent activities if they must protest.

There are valid concerns that some organizers of the protests might have plans to escalate them into riots with the intention of forcibly removing the President, who was elected by the people.

Nevertheless, he should reassure those who feel marginalized that he is the President of all Nigerians, open to their ideas and support. Those who disagree with him should follow the appropriate process, which is to wait for the 2027 election cycle if they believe he is unpopular. By then, hopefully his policies, which seem harsh now, are expected to have started showing positive results for the masses, who may then vote for him in large numbers. Apparently he introduced these tough policies early in his term, starting on May 29 last year, in order to have sufficient time to implement them and improve the economy before the next national elections. Based on my analysis, if President Tinubu takes these steps, he will overcome any efforts to remove him from office.

With time running out, the need for action is urgent.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.  

To continue this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng

Just slightly over a week ago, the political landscape in the United States went 180 degrees with the announcement by President Joe Biden that he was withdrawing from the presidential race. Before then, Biden had been recalcitrant that he would not withdraw from the race. He insisted that he was strong and healthy and was the only person who could defeat the Republican candidate, Donald Trump.

Even though Biden had given the American public many signs that indicated that he was mentally and physically unfit for the job, it was during the first presidential debate that his shortcomings became indisputable. Biden spoke in a raspy voice without any force. He looked feeble. But that was not all. He regularly lost his train of thought and mixed up the names of people and incidents. Even his opponent at that debate, Trump, had occasions when he was surprised at the lack of coherence in what Biden was saying. At a point in the debate, Trump said, while responding to an answer Biden gave to the moderators: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence, and I don’t think he did, either.”

Biden’s performance was embarrassing. Opinion polls showed that Trump was widening the gap between them. Many Democrats, including legislators, began to openly ask him to withdraw from the race and save the party from not just losing the presidency but also losing some of their strongholds in Congress to Republicans and becoming weakened. To show their seriousness, many sponsors of the party withdrew their support.

But the more Democrats asked Biden to withdraw, the more he said no and insisted that he was the person who could defeat Trump just as he did in 2020. The Democratic Party was divided and confused. The morale of members was low. Their case was worsened by the fact that Biden was (and still is) an incumbent president. As a result, he did not face any strong challenge for the ticket of the party earlier this year.

Another factor – not usually publicly discussed – was the fact that Biden’s deputy, Vice President Kamala Harris, is a woman as well as a person of non-White race. Despite the high level of human rights in the United States, it has never elected a woman. It took America 232 years to elect a non-White person in 2008 in the person of Barack Obama. And it was because Obama had an amazing personality and showed exceptional promise with no bad story associated with him. It would be disastrous to sideline Harris because of her gender and race to pick a White male as Biden’s replacement at the polls. But with less than four months to the presidential election, even if Harris became the candidate of the Democratic Party, it was not obvious whether she could make any impact.

Conversely, the Republican Party was upbeat. The morale of members was high. The missed assassination attempt on Trump some weeks ago drew him sympathy and helped to shoot up his rating. At the Republican Party’s convention, where Trump was officially confirmed as the presidential candidate and where he named his running mate, the party was as united and confident as it had not been in many years. All polls showed that Trump was ahead. It was obvious that Trump would rout Biden in the presidential race in November.

Then on Sunday, July 21, Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race and support for Harris. Within 48 hours, the presidential bid of Kamala Harris received over $100 million in donations: a record. (Within one week, it raised $200 million). The Democratic Party was rejuvenated. Attention shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats.

The campaign dynamics also completely changed. Before that Sunday, Trump was the younger and healthier candidate, while Biden was the old and feeble candidate. That was meant to be the focal point of the campaign. Immediately after Biden’s announcement, Trump became the old candidate: the oldest candidate in American history to run for president. The Republicans would be forced to change their campaign message and focus. Opinion polls showed that Harris had gone narrowly ahead of Trump, even though it is still within the margin of error, which makes it an open game.

The Republicans believe that Trump will rescue the United States from the dangerous grip of Biden and the Democrats. The Democrats believe that Kamala Harris and the Democrats will save America from falling into the dangerous hands of Trump a second time.

Another thing that happened after Biden’s announcement was the resignation of the Director of the American Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle. Since the attempt on Trump, Cheatle had vowed not to resign. Last week, she was grilled by Congress and both Democrats and Republicans tore her to shreds and told her to write her resignation letter immediately. She refused. But the next day, she resigned.

This is why warts and all, the United States is an exemplary and exciting democracy. The system is above everyone. One person does not decide what happens in the country. People take responsibility for any lapses under their watch. There is no room for excuses. If they refuse to do that, they are put under pressure until they do the right thing.

Biden is the president of the strongest country in the world. Therefore, he is the strongest president and individual in the world. But he had to succumb to the pressure from his party members to withdraw from the presidential race. The difference between the US and the Nigerian situation is that in cases like this, the Nigerian president would not resign. It happened when Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was ill. It happened when Muhammadu Buhari was also ill. It happened when Bola Tinubu was contesting for the presidency. Besides, there were many allies of theirs who came out and spoke strongly in their support, giving all kinds of reasons why their health situation was not an issue.

Another point is the importance Americans place on presidential debates. Any candidate who refuses to attend a presidential debate is seen as showing disrespect to the American populace. The presidential debate is the avenue through which the American people, as well as citizens of all developed countries, gauge the physical and mental acuity of those who wish to lead them. They use it to find out who seems prepared for leadership. But in Nigeria, politicians snub debates and all attempts to answer unscripted questions. Tinubu did not participate in any presidential debate before the 2023 election. Before him, Buhari did the same thing. Likewise, Goodluck Jonathan, Yar’Adua and Olusegun Obasanjo either avoided presidential debates or participated in the one they created. There were always people who defended them and argued that talking is not the same thing as leadership.

Nigeria copies most things from the US. The current presidential system of government which Nigeria practises was copied from the US after the First Republic failed and it was blamed on the British parliamentary system. The presidential system has not succeeded in delivering a reliable system that creates progress and stability. That proves that Nigeria’s governance failure has no connection with the system of government in place. The problem of Nigeria is that of a bad workman who continuously quarrels with his tools.

Nigeria does not copy the transparency that the American system is known for. It does not copy the proclivity of Americans to put the interest of the country before their personal and parochial interests. Resigning from positions is almost unthinkable. Individuals are most times above the law. This makes it difficult for democracy to produce the desired dividends that are associated with it. The only dividend of democracy that has accrued to Nigeria is the fact that no president has stayed in power for more than two terms like what obtains in countries like Russia, Rwanda, Cameroon, etc, which purport to practise democracy. Nigerians look forward to the time their politicians will start copying the good examples from the United States.

All hell has been let loose, and the centre can no longer hold in Kenya over the tax revolt that has been ravaging that East African country since June. In the wake of the crisis, a part of the parliament building was razed down by arsonists. Some public buildings were touched while several companies and shops were destroyed and looted. Sensing their relative success in forcing the government to cancel the $ 2.7 billion in tax hikes, the mainly Gen-Z protesters are now calling for President William Ruto’s resignation.

The young people have succeeded in throwing Kenya into turmoil, and no one in that country can now sleep with their two eyes closed. The number of casualties has been on the rise in the ongoing protests. More than 50 people have been reported killed since June, according to Kenya’s National Commission on Human Rights.

The Kenyan violence and destruction are reminiscent of the October 2020 EndSARS protest in Nigeria. During that EndSARS protest, several police stations were burnt with some police officers beheaded. The gory video of cannibals eating flesh from the bodies of slain police officers is still chilling. There was a jailbreak, and hardened criminals were let free in Lagos, Benin, and Abuja prisons. Critical infrastructure owned by the Lagos State Government was destroyed. A notable television station, TVC, was razed down.

It is difficult to forget how a large number of luxury buses meant to power public transportation in Lagos were burnt and left in ruins. A friend recounted to me how a distraught Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu was going through the ruins of the burnt buses at Oyingbo and tears began to cascade from his eyes over the multi-million dollar investment destroyed.

Such was the level of the destruction, the carnage, the investment gone in flames, the trauma and the uncertainty engendered by the protest. Those insisting on replicating the EndSARS protest in the country or reproducing the Kenyan moment in Nigeria do not mean well for the country and the people.
It may be argued that protesters have a right to register their displeasure about the state of the nation, particularly with the excruciating cost of living, even in spite of the government’s laudable economic policies and cushioning efforts, and this may be correct. However, the planned protest does not augur well for the country and our people. This is so for a number of reasons.

Firstly, given what transpired during that 2020 protest, there is no guarantee that any protest at this time would not turn violent or hijacked by hoodlums and other dodgy characters to foist their nefarious agenda on the country. This protest, which by most accounts is politically motivated, can only result in violence, arson and looting, as is characteristic of similar demonstrations in Nigeria and most parts of Africa. The Kenyan episode is also a case in point.
In the past, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, as he then was, and other activists had deployed the instrumentality of non-violent protest or agitation to advance the democratic cause that led to the rebirth of democracy in the land, and to correct some imbalances in the operation of Nigeria’s federalism, particularly during the regime of President Obasanjo.

Secondly, the sponsors and promoters of this protest, christened #EndBadGovernance protest, remain yet unknown. They are faceless and yet unidentified persons. I glimpsed an online interview with SaharaReporters’s publisher, Omoyele Sowore, identifying and calling for the demonstration. Meanwhile, he and his family are in their safe harbour in New Jersey. That was the same way detained Nnamdi Kanu was giving orders from abroad, naming individuals and their properties to be destroyed in Lagos during the #EndSARS protest.

Thirdly, it’s being established that constructive dialogue is the key to resolving issues and thrashing any misgiving or disagreement, which is bound to occur in any society. When there is a conflict between governments and groups arising from policy issues and other matters, dialogue is always the best way to resolve such disputes. In spite of the remonstrations of organised labour over the national minimum wage, eventually, they still resorted to negotiations with the government during which the matter was resolved amicably and a new national minimum wage, which is over 100% of the old one, was agreed upon with even an icing on the cake as President Tinubu committed to every 3-year review, instead of workers having to wait for 5 years before wages are adjusted.

More importantly, the hashtag #EndbadGovernance being promoted by the unknown protesters is dubious and remains contentious. End to bad governance? This condensation reminds one of the rhetoric of still-disgruntled opponents of President Tinubu, who lost the 2023 presidential election at the polls and in court, and now want to unseat him and come to power through the back doors. This is unacceptable. The nation’s electoral laws stipulate how elections are won and lost and the electoral circles as well. They will do well to wait for the next election in 2027.

End to bad governance? Where is the bad governance, one may ask? Yes, these are challenging times. Current economic challenges are not peculiar to Nigeria alone. Almost all the countries around the world, including the most developed ones, are in turmoil. Nigeria is no exception. President Tinubu is applying the right medication to an ailing economy he inherited. This bears restating: the economic policies the government has embarked upon, which have been widely commended, have their gestation periods. And, though some pains may have come during the interregnum, these would be temporary. Some compensatory and cushioning initiatives are also being embarked upon. The point is that the distribution of palliatives to the people needs to be intensified and pursued vigorously. In this respect, states and Local governments must do better as partners with the federal government to ensure the effective distribution of these palliatives.

In the meantime, there is cheering news about the economy. The country has exited the ways and means trap, which had been a cog in the wheel before and there is now growing confidence in the nation’s economy. According to the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun, debt service cost has declined from 97 percent to 68 percent and the government has also surpassed non-oil revenue by 30%. What this means is that the government will now have more money to fund social services and infrastructural projects that will improve the quality of life of Nigerians. The economy is growing, and sooner than later, some of the challenges of today will be overcome.
Therefore, this is not the time for a violent protest. The protest does not bode well. It poses an existential threat to Nigeria and its democracy. It will not augur well for anyone. We may all be losers in the end.

In summing up this article, I cannot but paraphrase that insightful columnist, Idowu Akinlotan, in his July 21, 2024 Palladium column, because he made this point more succinctly than I would do. I quote: “In sum, everybody may end up a loser, including opposition politicians galled by the outcome of the last presidential election, politicians who promote ethnic and religious exceptionalism, ethnic groups which resent the winner of the poll, youths who would likely become cannon fodder should the crisis blow out of proportion, and the country itself whose tenuous unity and untenable political structure have triggered tectonic shifts in the body politic. Nothing is certain, and this is no scaremongering.”

Rahman is a senior presidential aide

Abuja, Nigeria: In light of recent events and ongoing discussions surrounding the appropriateness of citizens expressing their dissatisfaction with government policies and actions, we, the undersigned civil society organisations, are compelled to reaffirm the fundamental right of citizens to peaceful protest as a fundamental pillar of democratic governance. This right is a cornerstone of any democratic society and a critical means for citizens to express their dissatisfaction, demand accountability, and advocate for change.

Protesting is a legitimate form of expression enshrined in international human rights instruments, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights, and Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution (as amended), among others. It allows citizens to publicly voice their concerns, challenge injustices, and participate actively in  the democratic process.

Protests serve as a vital mechanism for holding leaders accountable and ensuring that government actions reflect the will and needs of the people. History has shown that protests can lead to significant changes in government policies, processes and practices, highlighting the power of collective action to address grievances and promote good governance.

While the right to protest is a fundamental principle of democratic nations, we concede  that it must be exercised peacefully and responsibly without violating the rights of others. Accordingly, we urge all parties engaged, including protest organisers, participants, and law enforcement agencies, to prioritise safety and the rule of law. Law enforcement  has a duty to safeguard protesters while upholding public order. Demonstrators must avoid activities that might exacerbate tensions, cause unrest or threaten public safety.

Attempts to suppress demonstrations through intimidation, excessive use of force, or unjust legal actions are unacceptable and counterproductive. Every protest is deemed  peaceful, and if intelligence indicates otherwise, it is the role of the appropriate government agencies to identify such saboteurs and arrest them immediately. Arresting protest organisers shows a lack of understanding of the enemies of the state.

We urge the Nigerian Judiciary and the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) to uphold the rights of all protesters and establish a mechanism to promptly address and dismiss oppressive charges that may arise from these protests. The demands include reducing the cost of living, curbing insecurity, reducing the cost of governance, electoral reform, judicial reform, and constitutional reform, which are all recurring themes in Nigeria’s journey towards a healthy democracy.

We reaffirm our commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights and stand in solidarity with those who decided to exercise the right to peaceful protest.

We encourage all citizens to actively participate in shaping a just and accountable society, and we call on all stakeholders to uphold the principles of democracy, human rights, and

the rule of law.

Signed:

1. 21 stCentury Community Empowerment for Youth and Women Initiative
2. Accountability Lab Nigeria
3. Africa Institute for Energy Governance (AFIEGO) Uganda
4. BudgIT Foundation
5. Centre for Accountability and Inclusive Development (CAAID)
6. Centre for Inclusive Social Development (CISD)
7. Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID)
8. Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC)
9. Dataphyte Foundation
10. DigiCivic Initiative
11. Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria
12. Farnnel Women Foundation
13. Gee Foundation for Social Justice and Development
14. Global Rights
15. Health Education and Human Rights Advocacy Initiative (HEHRAI)
16. HIFWAC Relief
17. Hope Behind Bars Africa
18. Institutional and Sustainable Development Foundation ( ISDF)
19. International Peace and Civic Responsibility Centre (IPCRC)
20. International Press Centre (IPC)
21. Invictus Africa
22. Kilimanjaro Youth Foundation
23. Media Rights Agenda (MRA)
24. Mothers United and Mobilised
25. Nigeria Network of NGOs
26. Paradigm Initiative (PIN)
27. Policy Alert
28. Public and Private Development Centre (PPDC)
29. Research Centre for Development Action
30. Rule of Law and Accountability Advocacy Centre (RULAAC)
31. Sesor Empowerment Foundation
32. TechHer NG
33. The Meluibe Empowerment Foundation
34. We the People
35. WikkiTimes
36. Women Advocates Research and Documentation Centre (WARDC)
37. Yiaga Africa

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