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Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Muktar Mohammed (ceo finance with muktar)

Topic: Inauguration of 10th National Assembly and other matters

Date: 10TH JUNE, 2023

                         
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One of the first things that had been cited as evidence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu showing courage and wisdom and hitting the ground running as the 16^th President of Nigeria, has been his announcement that “fuel subsidy is gone”. In his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, he did not state how but within 24 hours, his rather speculative declaration was given effect. Oil marketers and managers at fuel stations adjusted their operations, shifting prices per litre of petrol upwards. By the following day, the NNPC Limited, the country’s sole supplier of finished product had announced a new template for petrol pricing, from N195 per litre to between N480 and N570 per litre - a more than 200% adjustment in the pump price of petrol. The given excuse is that this is in fulfilment of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) promise during the campaign season in the lead up to the 2023 General elections. The APC was not alone. Indeed, fuel subsidy removal was one of the major issues in the 2023 campaign process. Virtually every major political party promised that the subsidy would be removed. 

The IMF/World Bank in their global outlook for Africa and Nigeria had also advised against retaining fuel subsidy in Nigeria, being a source of wastage and leakage. Nigerian economists also agreed that the subsidy regime was unsustainable. It benefitted only the rich and was a ready source of arbitrage and a vehicle for the smuggling of petrol to neighbouring countries. The subject also gained a legal imprimatur with the passing of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), whose express purpose was to introduce a legal and governance framework to guide activities in the oil and gas sector. By the tenets of the PIA, the subsidy regime was meant to go by 2021. 

Citing what he called “social consequences” that may arise from such action, the Buhari administration, literally postponing the evil day, got the National Assembly to shift the implementation of that part of the law till 18 months later, to coincide with the end of his own tenure as President of Nigeria. As that administration began to wind down, the then Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed continued to remind Nigerians that Nigeria would not be able to fund fuel subsidies beyond May 29, 2023. The extension granted under the two relevant laws, the Petroleum Industry Act (2021), and the 2023 Fiscal Framework and Appropriation Act could not be stretched legally beyond May 29. To do so would be to break the law. In the weeks leading to the end of that administration, we were further told that the outgoing government had decided that the incoming administration should join the Federal Government to take a decision as to what it would do. 

In the weekend leading to the Inauguration of the new administration on Monday, May 29, the National Assembly hurriedly met: Senate first, followed by the House of Representatives to pass amendments extending the 2023 Supplementary Appropriation Act till December 2023, and another Bill amending the Central Bank of Nigeria Act, to give effect to the criminal violation of Section 38 of the Law on the approved threshold for Ways and Means. The Bill as passed moved the threshold from 5% to 15%. Till he handed over the instruments of power, there was no information that Buhari had signed either of the two Bills. He left for Daura, with a promise to cross the border to neighbouring Niger, if anyone tried to drag him into any Nigerian crisis. As he did so, he left behind a debt burden in excess of N77 trillion Naira, debts owed to the country’s major oil company, the NNPCL, totalling N2.4 trillion, a debt service to revenue ratio of over 96%, an inflation rate of 22.24%, an unemployment rate in excess of 33%, an essentially broke country, whose travails were further compounded by insecurity and hopelessness resulting in the Nigerian invention of a “Japa” phenomenon turning Nigerians into asylum and opportunity-seekers in other parts of the world. 

In an attempt to seize ownership of the narrative however, Buhari’s handlers rolled out a number of publications: about four books in which they tried to justify the legacy of the administration, including reports by the Presidential Communication Council (PCC) and the Buhari Media Council (BMC). In a flurry of speeches, the outgoing President himself reminded everyone not to look at the debt overhang that he was leaving behind, but what he did with the borrowings: infrastructure development, reforms, reduction of insecurity, repatriation of stolen loot, the ease of doing business. In more than six months after assuming office, the Buhari administration could not appoint key Ministers or get the government going. The President himself spent more than a year in UK hospitals on medical tourism. 

He began his tour of duty with an ear challenge that had to be treated in the UK. He ended it with a toothache that could only be attended to by specialists in the same UK.  But in fairness to President Buhari, he finished on a physically strong note. His last two weeks in power was characterized by a burst of youthful energy. The Federal Executive Council approved contracts and memos, in one week – 83!. Legacy projects were launched - the Second Niger Bridge, the Dangote Refinery, housing projects etc. President Buhari left behind a much stronger statement as he departed than he did when he arrived. Many have interpreted this to mean that he tried to set a trap for his successor. I don’t think so. After all, the transition that Nigeria has seen is APC to APC, it is more or less the same party remaining in power even if it is the ACN wing of the APC coalition replacing the old ANPP/CPC wing. The former headed by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu formed an alliance with others to get rid of the Jonathan government in 2015. At the risk of sounding superstitious and protean, I think the events of the past week would seem to point to one thing- retributive justice. Karma is truly a bitch. The God of Jonathan would seem to be at work. 

In the Holy Bible (1 and 2 Samuel), the story is well told of Jonathan’s faith in God. He did not ascend to the throne because of his father, Saul’s sin, and he may have died in battle at Mount Gilboa, but students of the Word will remember his valiant outreach against the Philistines. He told his armor bearer: “it may be that the Lord will work for us…”  (1 Samuel 14: 1-15). In the midst of the onslaught on members of the Jonathan administration in 2015, after the general elections of that year, the persecution was so much by the new administration that people advised President Jonathan to speak up to defend his team or pay a visit to President Buhari to protest. One evening, President Jonathan told me in his library: “Reuben there is no point… after God, it is government and government can do and undo. But what I believe is that our God will fight for us”. The reader is advised to fill in the gaps as you may deem fit, but I have chosen to use the above title, advisedly in reference to that 2015 conversation and in the limited context of the current outrage over the fuel subsidy removal debacle. Outrage is even a simple word in the context of the brewing crisis. My friend and brother, Patrick Obahiagbon, the grammarian describes the emerging situation as “supercalifragilisticcepalalidocious.” I have since given up searching for that word in the English language dictionary, simply because I have a deadline to meet to submit this piece to the editor. But Obahiagbon’s word twists the tongue in the same manner in which current events in Nigeria are twisting the mind. 

It is a known fact that in January 2012 when President Jonathan’s administration announced the deregulation of the downstream sector, otherwise known as fuel subsidy removal, the same people who opposed the government and organized protests at Ojota, Lagos, Abuja, Minna, Ilorin, and in other parts of Nigeria, even in London, are the same people who have now since returned to the same original arguments about the non-sustainability of the subsidy regime. When they wanted power, they whipped up sentiments against President Jonathan. At Ojota in Lagos, they carried coffins, they portrayed Jonathan in a derogatory manner, they danced, wore specially made T-shirts, they served designer jollof rice. They called it “Occupy Nigeria.” The Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress were involved and they had the backing of the opposition. There were casualties. The government stood its ground. Then Minister of the Economy and Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, now WTO Director-General threatened to resign if the government reversed itself. The CBN Governor at the time, HRM Sanusi Lamido Sanusi was one of the more outspoken defenders of the simple proposition that fuel subsidy was unsustainable. The Jonathan administration had proposed a 120% increase in the price of petrol. Hell was let loose. In Ojota, speeches were made by civil society leaders: Pastor Tunde Bakare, Dr. Tunji Braithwaite and a host of others. Many believed that the 2012 “Occupy Nigeria” protest was a major cause of the Jonathan administration’s early loss of goodwill. It was all politics though. But ironically, the same people who turned the matter into partisan politics, upon assumption of power in 2015, started by increasing fuel price from N87 per litre to N145, later to N195 and they met little or no resistance indicating that the crisis of 2012 was indeed stage-managed. Not too long ago, a man I respect told me that President Tinubu did not sponsor the protests of 2012. But nobody has denied an article in circulation titled “Removal of Oil Subsidy: President Jonathan breaks social contract with the people – by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu” (January 11, 2012.)

I am tempted to quote the essay in extenso, but I guess, a few excerpts would be adequate. Tinubu wrote inter alia as follows: “I am not calling President Jonathan an evil man. I do not believe he is perverse. However, the economic ideas controlling him are so misguided and that they have a perverse impact. Because he is slave to wrong-headed economics, the people will become enslaved to greater misery. This crisis will bear his name and will be his legacy. The people now pay a steep tax for voting him into office. The removal of the subsidy is the Jonathan tax. This situation shows that ideas count more than personalities. People may occupy office but how that person performs depends on the ideas that occupy his mind.”

He added: “Though someday, Nigeria will have to remove the subsidy the time to do it is not now. This subsidy removal is ill-timed and violates the condition precedent necessary before such a decision is made. First, government needs to clean up and throw away the salad of corruption in the NNPC. Then proceed to lay the foundation for a mass transit system in the railways and road network with long term bonds and fully develop the energy sector towards revitalizing Nigeria’s economy and easing the burden any subsidy removal may have on the people.”That was Tinubu on the marble. 

As a witness to history, I know that before the Jonathan administration announced any deregulation of the downstream sector, the term we used then, he had set up a verification panel to study and advise the government on the subsidy regime. The team under the auspices of the Ministry of Finance was chaired by Aig Aig-Imoukhuede. The committee reported that the subsidy regime was a big scam, the play-field of rent collectors who submit fraudulent claims to the government and that 21 firms had stolen about N383 billion subsidy money. The proposed deregulation was to check rent-collection, inefficiency, arbitrage and smuggling. For these and other reasons, it was submitted that the subsidy regime was unsustainable. Yet another committee was set up to review the submissions of the Aig-Imoukhuede committee. The same conclusions were reached. Then the government embarked on consultations with a broad spectrum of stakeholders. As the President’s spokesperson and media adviser, it was part of my job to take notes and mobilize my team to provide communications infrastructure support. Meetings were held at the main conference centre at the Villa, House 11 and sometimes at the First Lady’s Conference Room. Ahead of the announcement of the fuel subsidy removal as it became known, the Jonathan administration also set up a Subsidy Reinvestment Committee and announced palliatives. Key government officials were given time off to travel to their constituencies to explain to the people that the policy would be in the best interest of the poor.  

I have quoted Asiwaju Tinubu at length. Please has he now heeded his own advice of 2012? He was sworn in as President on May 29, and he promptly slammed fuel subsidy removal on the people. Nobody knows when and how, if any, consultation was carried out. The conversation about subsidy removal has been mainly elitist. Nobody has tried to speak to the people, or give them hope, the same hope that is said to be the original mission of the Tinubu administration. Anderson, Brady and Bullock (1978), E. Young and L. Quinn (2002) and Augustine Eneanya (2020) in their analysis of the public policy making process agree that no matter how valid a public policy may be, it is important to secure multi-stakeholder adoption of the agenda to generate a sense of ownership and easy implementation. By dictating to the people on the first day in office, without even any attempt at communication which is central to policy-making, the Tinubu administration obviously misses the theory and the strategy. Trying to intimidate organized labour, or relying on the politics of divide and rule also misses the point. Social problems are complex, they cannot be resolved with arrogance or hypocrisy as has been well-exposed. 

Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Peter Obi and Atedo Peterside have reportedly asked President Tinubu to apologize to President Jonathan. Of what use would the apology be in the circumstance? Buhari has thrown the Gordian knot into Tinubu’s laps. He should untie it. The irony is that his own hands are tied.  He won’t be able to blame Buhari for the problems of Nigeria as Buhari did to his own predecessor. Act One, Scene One: we will watch as the movie unfolds. 

Yesterday, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, was sworn in as the 16th President, Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria along with his Vice President, Kashim Shettima, GCON, at the 7th major transition ceremony since the return of Nigeria to civilian democratic rule in 1999. The event was held at the Eagle Square, Abuja. For decades an episodic military interregnum placed Nigeria in dire straits but 1999 was a turning point for the country. Yesterday’s event was a further confirmation of how Nigeria has managed in the last 24 years, to sustain democratic rule, despite the challenges. Yesterday, May 29, marked the end of an era, and the beginning of another. For about two weeks, President Muhammadu Buhari, as he then was, and his family had been moved to the Glass House. For those who do not know the configuration of the Presidential Villa, the Glass House is a small bungalow, a meeting place, a three bed-room structure, where when a President is in power, he holds occasional meetings, usually of the high state security variety, but when a President is on his way out, he and his family are moved to that small space.

The usual excuse is that the main Villa is undergoing renovation to allow access for the in-coming President and his family who would have taken over the renovation of the residence, the choice of furniture, the selection of dinner-ware, and the arrangement of the seat of power. The more symbolic part of the diplomacy here, is that the Glass House is located very close to the exit and entrance to the Official Residence. One of the major aspects of the theory and practice of diplomacy is symbolic representation. Moving the outgoing President close to a smaller space and very close to the exit gate such as The Glass House at the Presidential Villa, is a subtle reminder that the time is up, the game is over, and that both the President and his family can begin to readjust psychologically. The President and his “main body” (I once explained what this means in this column) would leave the Villa on the morning of the hand-over straight to the Eagle Square, and go through the process of the inauguration of a new term, the main highlights of which are: the handing over of the instruments of governance to a new team, the change of military colours from the old to the new, and the swearing-in protocols in line with Constitutional provisions.

The convoy that takes the President to the Eagle Square would immediately shift to the new President. It is that convoy that will take the new President and the new First lady and their team back to the Villa. A standby protocol team, a different, pared-down convoy, takes the outgoing President to the airport, straight to his new destination as a former President, that is - his home-town. As soon as he is accompanied back home, the same convoy withdraws immediately to Abuja, and reports to the new dispensation. Nigerians are very cynical about how they go about this end of tenure protocol. This being an APC-to-APC transition, President Buhari may well have been allowed privileges that would be denied an outgoing opposition President. In our time in 2015, I can say categorically, that some of the state officials who left with us from State House to Eagle Square did not even bother to follow us to the Airport. They simply melted into the Buhari crowd. Many of them were looking for re-appointments. When we got to the Airport, we were locked out of the Presidential Lounge. The then outgoing President and his departing entourage had to loiter around in an outer space, before we all eventually had to board the aircraft to Bayelsa. The boys who had the keys to the Presidential Lounge had vanished. They became unidentifiable. This was the same Lounge we had used only a week earlier. President Buhari was of course not subjected to such embarrassment yesterday as the reports have shown and that means with his party holding on to power, he has enjoyed the pleasure of a respectful exit. He probably did not even bother to wait awhile at the airport.

This explains all the triumphal ceremonies that we have witnessed beyond state protocol and etiquettes in the last few days in the lead up to the arrival of the new administration. There was much that was beyond the control of the state establishment. Outgoing Ministers brought masquerades to organize and serenade their own farewells. The National Association of Witches and Wizards delivered on their promise that they would be on the ground before May 29 to ensure that there would be no disruptions. Senator Shehu Sani has quipped on Twitter that he was surprised that the witches and wizards were seen in buses, entering Abuja: why didn’t they fly into Abuja with their “osoro moniga” wings? The witches and wizards of Nigeria probably knew better. But now we know that witches and wizards also board buses and trains, and that expands our fears and anxieties. They even staged a street demonstration in support of Tinubu and Shettima. Was February 25, 2023, a witchcraft exercise? Not surprisingly, the Christian leaders of Nigeria have spoken up with Pastor Paul Enenche (Dunamis International Church) quoted as proclaiming that Christian leaders are in charge. What a country! On the eve of the handing over ceremony in Nigeria, we had to be reminded again that religion is a major, divisive issue in this country. It has always been. Nigerian politics is dominated by religion, ethnicity, and every possible centrifugal factor in the books.

Nonetheless, on May 28, on the eve of his departure, President Muhammadu Buhari gave a farewell speech in which he told Nigerians that Tinubu is the best candidate among all candidates and that Nigerians have chosen well. He praised the aggrieved political parties and candidates for choosing “to go to court” and advised that they should accept “the decision of our courts”. Whatever the courts decide, it is obvious that some of the political stakeholders would remain inconsolable as they have shown in their reactions to the ruling on whether or not the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its then Vice Presidential candidate, were guilty of double nomination under Sections 35 and 84(2) of the Electoral Act 2022. Costs were awarded against the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The Court dismissed the PDP as “a busy body and a meddlesome interloper.” Similarly, the request by the Labour Party that the proceedings at the Presidential Election Tribunal should be televised was dismissed as impossible because there is no such provision in the law. There has been an attempt by the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal to respond to the pressures being mounted in certain quarters that election petitions should be determined expeditiously, and this: when the Tribunal asked the political parties involved in the dispute to consolidate their petitions and that the court would treat the petitions together.

Still the Tribunal has until September 16 before the 180 days provided for in Section 285 of the 1999 Constitution expires. Thereafter, appeals before the Supreme Court have a time-frame of an additional 60 days. We are looking, it seems, at some time before the end of the year. By then, the Tinubu administration would have settled in nicely. Ministers would have been appointed; over 5, 000 possibilities for political patronage would have been explored and fixed. Already, some of the persons who worked on the Tinubu/Shettima campaign have been given national honours in the former President’s last superintendence over that state function. The Supreme Court being a court of public policy is not likely to rock the boat. With what we saw yesterday at the inauguration ceremonies in Abuja, the pomp, the pageantry, the colourful transfer of power, witnessed by leaders from all over the world, even with China, United States and Venezuela whose Vice President was in attendance, it would take an earthquake to uproot the APC from the Presidential Villa. But would that discourage those who have raised serious objections and who do not agree that Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the best candidate on February 25? President Buhari cannot be so sure. The worst that may well happen is that one or two of the most vociferous Presidential candidates would be “offered something” in Nigerian parlance and they would go quiet. The inauguration would be a test of integrity and character on all fronts.

Nobody should be surprised if any Presidential candidate in the last elections accepts the position of a Senior Special Assistant or a Minister. It would be rationalized by his allies that he is committed to serving Nigeria. Others may just accept financial settlements and keep quiet thereafter. In this same country, we have seen former Ministers at the Federal level who went back to their states to serve as errand boys and girls. Opportunism is that other factor that drives Nigerian politics, not ideology, hardly common sense. Indeed, no one should be surprised if the National Association of Witches and Wizards also shows up to demand a seat in the Federal Executive Council!

One other point of interest is the following excerpt from the outgone President’s broadcast at 7 am on Sunday, May 28. “I am leaving behind an electoral process that guarantees that votes count, results are credible, elections are fair and transparent and the influence of money in politics is reduced to the barest minimum. And Nigerians can elect leaders of their choice.” I can hear loud yawns…Yesterday’s inauguration, however, moved Nigeria quickly forward as President Buhari returned to Daura to attend to his cows and sheep, who, he tells us, are better behaved than Nigerians. But while preparing to leave, within two weeks, he had signed more than 11 bills, leaving out the Sexual Harassment Bill. He awarded National Honours to over 340 persons. He re-named airports after historical figures. He took the sole credit for the Second Niger Bridge and the Dangote Refinery. He also got the National Assembly to amend the CBN Act to push ways and means from the 5% threshold to 15% and he pushed the responsibility for removing fuel subsidy to the Tinubu administration. He is now in Daura, probably laughing at us.

The ball is now in Tinubu’s court. His campaign was based on the slogan: “Emilokan”, now the subject of academic inquiries, including an international research project to which I have been invited to make a contribution. “Emilokan” means “It is my turn.” And now it is his turn at the helm of affairs in Nigeria. The Godfather who is now King. A defined life ambition achieved. He refers to it as a “SUBLIME” moment for our country where “a better future emerges with our improved capacity to create that future”. He promised “to mend and heal this nation, not tear and injure it”. He extended his hands of fellowship to all who contested against him in the political process across all divides. “For me, political coloration has faded away. All I see are Nigerians… you are all my people”. This is an APC President who says he belongs to everybody, and hopefully, this one will not compare us to cows and sheep!

His inauguration speech went further to outline and define his understanding of what he called “the new Nigerian Ideal” in the shape of principles and priorities: Security, the economy, jobs, agriculture, infrastructure, fuel subsidy, monetary policy. President Tinubu had not yet finished his speech before the news networks ran with the headline: “Breaking News; Tinubu Removes Fuel Subsidy.” I have tried to take a look at that inauguration speech again. Is there a categorical statement as to the removal of fuel subsidy? Students of language should go back to that paragraph on fuel subsidy and break it down. Compare same to the paragraph on Infrastructure which begins with “We shall…” Go further to the paragraph on “Monetary Policy” and pay attention to the use of the word “need” and “needs”. We are told: “The Central Bank must work towards a unified exchange rate”. Must work towards? Candidly, a well-written piece from the point of view of presidential rhetoric by some guys who believe that they are smart, but there is nothing concrete here that anyone can hold on to. The devil is in the details. If the President has decided to remove fuel subsidy, he must do so in more elaborate details and offer concrete information as to how he intends to go about it. How? When? But just see right on Day One, the confusion that the lack of clarity has caused. What are the key contributions that the Tinubu team has put on the table? Which Central Bank is going to unify the exchange rates? What are the plans to deal with fiscal deficit and debt burden? Sound bites are not enough. While the key sound bites about fuel subsidy removal and a unified exchange rate would give hope to the international financial system that had always asked Nigeria to adopt orthodox economic policies across board, the real taste of the pudding is in the outcome for average Nigerians.

We are dealing however, with people who understand the game of power. If Buhari and his CPC/ANPP wing of the coalition that drove the PDP out of power in 2015, and held on to it for eight years, thought they all got it worked out now, the ACN wing of that coalition and probably the most powerful wing of it, has taken over power. We look forward to the internal drama within the APC superstructure, as the party tries to balance expectations within the party. Beyond that, has anyone noticed that the Yoruba establishment is suddenly aligning with Tinubu? Even those Yoruba leaders who threatened to go on exile have publicly said that they are no longer going anywhere, and that they have forgiven him. When a group of Yoruba ultra-nationalists stormed a radio station, Amuludun FM, in Ibadan over the weekend, trying to reject Nigeria, they were arrested and promptly disowned by the Oodua Nation leadership. A Yoruba man is now President again, Oodua leaders don’t want anybody re-enacting “The Mystery Gunman” incident of the 1960s. The assailants have been paraded in the full glare of cameras even if it is illegal to do so.

We have been told that Tinubu will hit the ground running. He has enough capacity to make quick announcements with regard to key personnel. But the important thing is how he intends to build that “Ideal Nigeria” with all the rot that the Buharists are trying to cover up, and how to fulfil the promise of hope and unity. The journey ahead belongs to us all, whatever shape it assumes. Even with all that excitable, celebratory dancing by the President and VP yesterday, the road may be rough.

Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu (middle) being congratulated by Chief Judge of the State, Hon. Justice Kazeem Alogba (left) while the wife of the governor, Dr (Mrs) Ibijoke watches in admiration, during the inauguration of Governor Sanwo-Olu for second term in Office, at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), Lagos, on Monday, May 29, 2023.

Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, signing his Oath of Office while his wife, Dr (Mrs) Ibijoke (second left) and their children, watch during the inauguration of Governor Sanwo-Olu for second term in Office, at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), Lagos, on Monday, May 29, 2023.

Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu (fourth left), followed by his wife, Dr (Mrs) Ibijoke; wife of the Deputy Governor, Mrs Oluremi Hamzat; Dr Obafemi Hamzat; Chief Judge of the State, Hon. Justice Kazeem Alogba (left) and family members during the inauguration of Governor Sanwo-Olu/Deputy Governor Hamzat for second term in Office, at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), Lagos, on Monday, May 29, 2023.

Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu (left) and Deputy Governor, Dr Obafemi Hamzat congratulate each other after being sworn-in for second term in Office, at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), Lagos, on Monday, May 29, 2023.

General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau turned 80 last week on May 18, and for those who know him, or have worked closely with him and has been impacted by his humanism and generosity of spirit, he is a man to be celebrated, a strong pillar of the Nigerian estate, a living memory bank and an asset to his country. I first met him sometime in 1998. General Olusegun Obasanjo as he was then addressed, had just been released from prison by the Abdusalami Abubakar administration following the trumped-up charge of coup-plotting against Obasanjo and others. General Obasanjo himself has told his own story. But his release, some would say escape from Abacha’s trap was a special moment for many. At the time, I was a regular participant at the Farm House Dialogues, founded by General Obasanjo, under the auspices of the Africa Leadership Forum, headed by our very able boss, Ayodele Aderinwale, OFR, now Chairman of JustRite. I wrote many of the Farm House Dialogue Reports and communiques. To cut a long story short, after his release, General Obasanjo went straight home. His house in Ita-Eko, Abeokuta was filled with so many people who thronged the place to see him and congratulate him. The moment I entered the house, the first man that I saw was General Gusau. I didn’t know who he was but as is customary the right thing to do is to greet an elderly person. I was however taken aback when he called out my name as if he had known me from somewhere. I wasn’t a regular face on television at the time, so I used to enjoy the serenity that anonymity offers. Not anymore. But I wondered why the elderly man would call out my name with such certainty. Out of curiousity, I later asked people around: who is that man?

“You don’t know General Gusau?, three persons asked in quick succession. They made it look as if not knowing General Gusau was the equivalent of failing an important examination.

“You don’t know General Gusau and you call yourself a journalist?”, one person quipped. I threw a sour look in his direction. Why should that be a test of my professional ability as a journalist?

“General Gusau is one of the most powerful men in this country. Nobody can run this country successfully without him. You are surprised he knows you? It is his duty to know you. He knows everything that goes on in this country. He has his boys and eyes everywhere.”

Even at that time, I already had an idea that Nigerians are capable of writing stories, blending facts with myths. But the main story of the moment was the widespread excitement over Obasanjo’s return. Those were truly crazy days in Nigeria. The military under Abacha had imposed a regime of terror on the country, such that even babies were not spared. The catalyst for Nigeria’s descent to the lower depths, was the annulment of the June 12, 1993 Presidential election won by late Bashorun MKO Abiola. Leaving office, General Ibrahim Babangida left behind an Interim National Government (ING) headed by another Egba man, Chief Ernest Shonekan. IBB had said he was “stepping aside”. Eventually, General Sani Abacha, who had been left behind as Minister of Defence, hijacked the government, drove away the Interim arrangement, and imposed himself on Nigeria in a most brutal manner that did neither the people nor the country any good. Obasanjo was one of Abacha’s victims, although destiny soon played out. Obasanjo would later emerge as Nigeria’s civilian President in 1999, in an arrangement that was meant to correct the tragedy of the Abacha years and the pain that the military inflicted on the country.

The military do not always want to accept all the blames that the civilian population heaps on them. They do not agree that they mismanaged Nigeria, while at the helm of affairs for the better part of the last 63 years. In many accounts, Nigerian military chiefs project themselves as men who saved Nigeria, and provided such quality leadership that the civilians seem incapable of. This is probably the reason why since the return to civilian rule in 1999, the military have continued to cast their shadow over the politics of Nigeria. It is further not surprising that Nigerian public affairs commentators talk about those they call “the owners of Nigeria”. On that day in Abeokuta, all I heard about General Gusau was his reputation as “one of the owners of Nigeria”, a kingmaker, a power behind the throne. In fact, one fellow boasted that nobody could lead Nigeria without General Gusau’s hand in it. I took another look at the man. He looked quiet. His demeanour was calm. I guess you can never judge people by merely looking at them. But to be serious it is certainly not a compliment to refer to any group as “owners of Nigeria- that is totalitarianism: We are not in Hitler’s Germany. We are not in Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Born Aliyu Mohammed, on 18 May 1943, the Gusau that is attached to his name is his place of birth in present-day Zamfara State of Nigeria. He graduated from the Nigerian Defence Academy in 1967, and fought in the civil war as a second lieutenant. He has since then remained a prominent figure, occupying one leadership position after another as Brigade Commander, Director of Personnel at Army Headquarters and as Director of Military Intelligence, Head of the National Security Organization (NSO) or as National Security Adviser. General is credited with having set up Nigeria’s intelligence infrastructure. In 1989, he broke up the NSO into three different organizations; the State Security Services (SSS), the National Intelligence Agency (NIA), and the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA). It is a measure of the man’s capacity and influence that he is even in retirement regarded as Nigeria’s Number one Intelligence Officer and a major force in the determination of Nigerian affairs. He is one Nigerian who has been here and there, and has been on duty at every critical moment in Nigeria’s post-independence trajectory: He fought in the civil war. He served in Abeokuta as Commander of the 9 Infantry Brigade. He was General Officer Commanding (GOC) at the 2 Mechanised Division in Ibadan, Commandant of the Nigeria Defence Academy, and Chief of Army Staff. He was said to have been involved in the coup that brought General Muhammdu Buhari in 1983, and also in the coup that removed him in 1985. Nor was he popular with General Sani Abacha who removed him as Chief of Army Staff. But whatever travail he may have suffered in the course of his career, has not stopped him. He was Obasanjo’s National Security Adviser when he returned to power in 1999. He was later President Goodluck Jonathan’s National Security Adviser and Minister of Defence.

Twice, in 2006 and 2010, he had sought to be President of Nigeria but the story behind his back was that it would have been a lot too much to hand over Nigeria to the country’s top spy. It was said that nobody would be safe. Nonetheless, General Mohammed as he prefers to be known, has remained even at 80, a major power behind the throne. His influence goes beyond the military where he made a career. Over the years, he has built bridges across the country and constituencies. It is not for nothing that he is regarded as a powerful man.

I was privileged to observe him at close quarters when he served as President Jonathan’s Minister of Defence. He was always quiet, almost self-effacing, yet everyone deferred to him. General Gusau is a major lesson in how to wield power and influence without brandishing it. I would later discover that many top journalists are his friends. Journalists deal with information. They look for sources, in pursuit of the stories behind the stories. The country’s top most intelligence operative was bound to be a friend of the media. When I ran as a Deputy Governorship candidate in Ogun State in 2019, General Mohammed told me our team would not win, if we didn’t make certain choices in Ogun PDP. He was proven right. Ahead of the 2023 general elections, he had done an analysis of the political terrain and predicted what would happen. Again, he has been proven right. Many of us in this country just sleep and wake up, hustle and try to look for ways to pay our ever-increasing bills, but there are others whose day work is entirely devoted to looking into the deeper end of things.

What I admire about him is his love of knowledge, his generosity and his attention to details. I once visited The Gusau Institute – a research centre that he has set up in Kaduna. This Centre is probably the richest personal library in Nigeria today. It is a fully digitalized library, with a collection of books, documents and resource materials on military history and general subjects. I was taken round the library, and I was amazed at what I saw, including a Reuben Abati file containing letters to the editor that I wrote in the Nigerian Chronicle, as an undergraduate at the University of Calabar, opinion articles I wrote as an NYSC teaching assistant at the University of Benin, published in the Nigerian Observer, and my writings over the years that I can’t even trace. I saw publications and writings by just about anybody, including copies of examination papers ever written at the Nigeria Defence Academy. Researchers are allowed access to the Centre. Within the premises, there is yet another building, where General Mohammed has done an excellent job of documenting his own career, with pictures, documents and correspondences. I doubt if there is any other General today in Nigeria who has paid as much attention to detail. The only thing missing is that I have not yet seen a written memoir by the General. He has a story to tell, and this is perhaps the right time to tell that story. I have heard people say that he knows too much, and that a man like him should not tell stories. I disagree. While spy chiefs and military leaders trade in secrecy, the truth is that some remarkable books have been written by intelligence chiefs and military leaders. Sun Tzu was a Chinese military General. His book, The Art of War, is regarded as a major text on military strategy and warfare. What makes an intelligence officer? How do intelligence officers operate? What roles do intelligence officers play in the making of foreign policy, international affairs and national security? How secretive and accountable should they be? These are aspects of the making of Nigeria that require interrogation and I cannot think of any better person to tell such stories than General Mohammed.

I must not end this tribute however without noting General Mohammed’s example necessarily throws up afresh questions about the role of the military in Nigeria’s political space. It may have been fashionable in the 70s and 80s to hail Nigerian soldiers as strong men. It was the age of “the strong man” as a messiah in African politics. But with the wave of democratization that gripped the heartbeat of politics in the 90s, the military involvement in governance and politics began to attract heavy criticisms, By 1993, most people were clamouring for the exit of the military. “Never again”, we all chorused. There seemed to have been a consensus that the period the military ruled Nigeria could best be described as “the years eaten by the locust”, the title of two well-received collections of writings by Fr. George Ehusani. To those who have any faint recollection of that season, it may sound ironic that a top soldier is the subject of a tribute. But have the civilians fared any better in terms of personal example? Every man will be judged on his own account. It is also interesting what has become of the intelligence establishment. The DMI at some point became a place of torture and nightmare. One of the soldiers who headed the place, as things turned worse, reportedly used to boast that he would waste people. Similarly, the Department of State Security (DSS) has had mixed fortunes over the years. How many officers can still come across as officers and gentlemen? The best tribute that the younger generation can pay to General Gusau is to toe the path of professionalism, honour and loyalty. Happy birthday sir.

Two major events dominated the headlines in the weekend that just passed in Nigeria: the heroism, determination and the example of Ms. Hilda Effiong Bassey, known as Hilda Baci for short, and the sordid drama of Seun Kuti, son of Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, the ternal music icon, pushing, slapping and assaulting a policeman in uniform. Both subjects deserve commentary. But let’s start on a positive note, represented by Hilda Effiong Bassey, the Nigerian food entrepreneur, or chef, 27, who made up her mind that she wanted to get into the Guinness Book of World Records by beating the longest cooking marathon record by an individual set by Lata Tandon, an Indian Chef in 2019. Tandon cooked non-stop for 87 hours and 45 minutes. Nigeria’s Ms Baci decided that she would break that record and cook non-stop for 100 hours. The event took place at Amore Gardens in Lekki, Lagos. She turned her oven and cooker on Thursday, on May 10, and indeed till Monday morning, Baci kept dicing, frying, cutting, cookingm baking and ended up achieving her target. By the time she reached the significant mark of 87 hours and 50 minutes, she had already broken the world record, but she kept going. Nigerians are an interesting lot. Who would ever have thought that culinary skills could bring so much fame and history? There are many lessons and issues to be extracted from the Hilda Basi cook-a-thon that Nigerians just witnessed.

The first is that Nigerians are a creative and resourceful lot and should they put their minds to anything, they are capable of excelling at. These are the same people that President Muhammadu Buhari once referred to as “diamonds”, who represent the hope of the nation for the present and the future. When a gifted Nigerian seeks to excel, he or she does so. Ms Baci’s achievement is an indication of the can-do spirit of the Nigerian. The international community often complains about the unusual capacity of Nigerians for fraud and criminality, within the local and international arena, but there are in reality more Nigerians doing great things. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is representing us well at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Aminat Muhammed is a strong official at the United Nations in her position as a Deputy Secretary General. Asisst Oshoala, MON, is a big star in European women football. Tobi Amysan is world record holder in long jump. Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie is a leading writer and voice in the global space of culture and literature. There are Nigerians occupying political positions in Canada, UK, Ireland and elsewhere. We have Nigerians in the US military, in the US NASA programme and in the commanding heights of global trade and economy. Hilda Effiong Bassey has chosen cooking and are we delighted? Yes, we are.

The second thing to say is: Congratulations to her on this remarkable feat, and her admirable qualities, now well-advertised of tenacity, of purpose, vision and determination. Nobody, she teaches us, by the way, can achieve anything in this life, except you set a purpose for yourself and pursue it. It will be recalled that in 2021, this same Ms. Baci won the Jollof Face-Off competition, and got a grand prize of $5, 000. But that was not enough for her. She wanted a place in the Guinness Book of World Records. And now here she is. Every great achievement begins with a dream and the capacity to pursue that dream and stretch the dream to the end of the street. As of the time of this writing, we understand that Chef Hilda has stretched her target from 96 hours to 100 hours! Hilda, you too much oh! Indeed, because, despite all the good things that we have said about the Nigerian spirit, there are many of our compatriots who want the easy way out, they fake it, they cheat, they tell lies, they want the glamour but they do not want to apply themselves. Hilda Baci has just reinforced a simple lesson of life: that the surest way to distinction is through hard work, focus and rigorous self-application. It bears no stating that cooking for more than 90 hours, with short intervals of rest as allowed by the rules is excruciating rigour. Many marriages have been ruined because some other women can’t even spare 30 minutes to cook for their own children.

The third lesson is the innate Nigerian love for success, glory and achievement that is within us all. Nigerians have an inner craving for good things and when they see it, they gather around it like bees around nectar. This is what has happened with the Baci story. As she cooked, Nigerians trooped to the Amore Gardens in Lekki to hail her and offer support. Celebrities trooped to the venue in their uncountable numbers. Churches of the white garment variety kept vigil, calling on God to see her through. The Governor of Lagos visited. Senators of the Federal Republic led by Senator Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom North West, who wants to be Senate President by autocratic party anointment, also joined the cheer-leaders. Hilda Baci is from Akwa Ibom State. No other event unites Nigerians like that, apart from football. It rained overnight. The people refused to leave. In football, and now in a cooking event, Nigerians have suspended their differences. They don’t think of ethnicity or religion, or geography. They have come together as one nation, united for the glory of the nation. Baci drew support across all the centrifugal borders of Nigeria. Her supporters in fact defied the rain. It rained heavily in the night of Sunday to Monday. The people refused to go home. They stayed under the heavy rainfall, and kept singing. It was one of those rare occasions when we are reminded that this is a country after all. Thank you Baci, for reminding us with your culinary skills that it is possible to have a nation. Nations are made through symbols and the patriotism in the hearts of the people. If this had been an election, the situation could have been different. Hilda Effiong Bassey would have been reminded that she cannot cook in Lagos, because she is a non-indigene. The constituted thugs of Lagos, led by a well-connected Chairman would have gone to Amore Gardens to chase everyone away. But here we are: an Akwa Ibom woman cooking for the world in Lagos, has brought glory to the same Lagos. The clowns in high places who promote disunity simply need to lend themselves a little sense. Nigerian leaders can learn from Ms Baci how to cook a nation, and achieve results. Our leaders know how to eat, but they do not know how to cook.

The fourth point that I see here is that Hilda Baci’s feat is an advertisement for the cooking profession. She has raised the profile of chefs. More persons may well be encouraged by her example to take to cooking as a profession. I have not even bothered to find out how much this has cost her and her sponsors in financial terms and how much she stands to earn. The glory is more important than the financial gain. But what I see is that Hilda Baci is now a cultural icon. It is good that she has been congratulated by President Muhammadu Buhari. This is most deserved. I am also of the view that when Nigeria compiles its next National Honours list, it is people like her that we expect to see on that list, along with Rema, another world record holder, Tiwa Savage, Kizz Daniel, Burna Boy, Tems, award-winning intellectuals, the boys doing wonderful things in fintech, not some funny characters in bulbous robes who take more from Nigeria than they give. As a father, I would like to advise her to handle fame with care. Fame makes. Fame breaks. As her story developed, there were persons who were more interested in her beauty. Her pictures have been posted online showing her beauty and physical attributes on full display. Nigerian men love food. There is this popular folk saying that the way to a man’s heart is through his stomach. A woman that is an acclaimed cook is a special target for stomach-driven Nigerian men. Ms Baci will get invited to cook by seemingly appreciative men who just want to taste. Beware, Baci. There are too many idle men in this society of ours who promise marriage and heaven, but are closet idiots. Focus on growing your business, and talent. Watch out for those who will soon begin to use your achievement to catch clout as they say.

The fifth and final point here is to congratulate, Hilda Baci’s mother. She is herself a chef. She runs a restaurant in Abuja. Her daughter follows in her footsteps. She learnt the trade at her feet. I have seen a video showing her expressing her delight at her daughter’s achievement. It is the prayer of every parent that their children should do better than them. Mrs. Bassey’s glory came on Mother’s Day, a mother’s hilarious delight! She has every reason to be grateful. Lecherous Nigerians men have observed that Mrs. Bassey herself is a very good spec. As a serious-minded person, I no longer engage in such conversations, so I won’t tell that side of the story. What I see here is the importance of parenting. In all of this, however, nobody has mentioned Mr. Bassey. Is he alive? This is the burden we bear as fathers. When the children do well, it is their mothers who step forward like characters from Bournvita cartoons. Still, we thank God for all children and mothers who bless the land as the Basseys have done.

Now to Seun Kuti, the enfant terrible, about whom terrible things have been reported during the same weekend that Hilda Baci did us all proud. Seun Kuti was reported to have dropped the ball. He assaulted a policeman. There was a video in circulation that showed him telling a policeman in uniform that he would deal with him. He slapped the police officer in uniform. He assaulted the policeman. He reportedly boasted thereafter that he has dealt with many policemen in similar manner in the past. Seun Kuti is my kinsman. I do not want anything bad to happen to him. But this time around I think he has carried his offering beyond the Mosque. It has been argued that it is a DNA thing. He is after all, the son of Fela Anikulapo Kuti. Fela did not wilfully break the law. He was in fact a law-abiding man. He challenged autocracy. He questioned the law as all citizens are allowed to do so. He was like his mother, the legendary, Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti. Seun Kuti’s forebears were defenders and promoters of good governance and the rule of. law. Even when state agents attacked Kalakuta Republic, an assault in which Seun’s grandmother lost her life, the state prevailed, even if unjustly. I think therefore that those who think it is a DNA thing for Seun Kuti to attack a policeman are wrong. People make their own choices. They do not inherit choices. What I am saying is that it would be most disrespectful to drag the dead into Seun Kuti’s matter. He is an adult and he must be made to answer for his own acts. The law does not recognize pedigree. You commit an act; you answer for it. The only thing the law recognizes is the equality of persons before the law. Seun Kuti is not above and cannot be above the law because he enjoys hereditary privilege.

From Saturday, there is a video in circulation showing him assaulting a policeman on the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos. The video evidence shows that he insulted the policeman and slapped him. He has since claimed that he has enough evidence to show that the policeman threatened his life and that of his family members. There have been other evidence notes on social media. We are told for example that he told the policeman before slapping him: “You dey craze? You dey mad?” In the meantime, the Inspector General of Police and the Police Service Commission have ordered arrest and investigations. The Police have a duty to ensure that their officers are not routinely assaulted by Nigerians. Dr. Solomon Arase, the Police Service Commission (PSC) Chairman has commended the affected police officer for the restraint that he demonstrated. That officer whom nobody has named – we need his true identity- should be promoted by Arase’s PSC. In my view, Seun Kuti was indeed lucky. If that policeman or his colleagues had rifles with them, they could have gunned him down. By now, he would be dead and we would all be talking about extra-judicial killing. The lesson here is that people must know their limits. In today’s Nigeria, my father was this or my grandmother was that, is not a protection claim in the face of the law. The present generation of Nigerians don’t know ancient history anyway. They should not rely on what grandpa and great grandpa and daddy did.

It is however refreshing to hear that Seun Kuti has shown up at the police station. He was reportedly put in silver ware. The offence that he has committed under Section 98 of the Police Act and Section 356 of the Criminal Code puts him in line for a three-year jail term. He says he has enough evidence to prove his innocence. He has a good lawyer: Femi Falana, SAN. Let them go and prove their case in the court of law, and as soon as the case is properly placed, let them address all the allegations including the underlying innuendo that Fela Kuti ‘s son is above the laws of the land. Should anyone be above the laws of Nigeria? I am aware however that there are other interested persons and groups in the public domain who are now beginning to say that if Seun Kuti is let off the hook, they too will begin to slap and beat Nigerian policemen, and they would cite Seun Kuti’s case as precedent. The substance of this matter lies in Seun Kuti’s relationship with the sovereign but whichever way it is resolved, his brand is already somewhat diminished. He doesn’t need that. This is the sad part of it.

Without prejudice to what transpires at the Presidential Election Tribunal on the February 25 election, and the request by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and others that the proceedings should be televised live – no problem about that, as long as the parties involved can bear the cost in defence of the ideal of transparency - it seems certain nonetheless that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President-elect and Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling party, would be sworn in as President of Nigeria on May 29, 2023. The Federal Government has set up a Transition Committee, the President-elect has also set up an Inauguration Committee with some Nollywood stars named unto that committee already behaving like party boosters on social media. While the Election Petition Tribunal continues to keep, hopefully to its promise that it would consider every application on its own merit, Tinubu and APC are already preparing for their own Coronation ceremony on May 29, complete with jollof rice and aso ebi parties and a scale of pomp and pageantry that could rival the Coronation of King Charles III of Great Britain on May 6. Nigerians are very good at imitating the colonial masters. No one should be surprised if Tinubu arrives at the Eagle Square on Inauguration Day on a horse-drawn golden carriage. The morning after, he would swing into action, real time.

The sword of power would have been handed over to him. He would have such authority and access to resources that his challengers in court cannot hope to match. He would in fact have been placed in a position to exercise authority over those who are challenging him, their businesses and their needs. Even the courts would have taken notice of the fact that Nigeria is under a new dispensation. Tinubu has been in politics for a long time. He knows what power means. He has been a Senator. He has been Governor twice. He has been a Godfather in Nigerian politics for more than two decades. He has been a kingmaker. He is a veteran of the game. The real threat to our democracy is that we may have been presented with a fait accompli, while the lawyers shuffle papers and quote dead authorities and precedents in order to earn their pay. Even if the matter goes all the way to the Supreme Court let it be noted that the apex court is a court of law and also a court of public policy. This is why there is merit to the emerging argument that our electoral system needs further reform, and the Constitution must be amended accordingly to ensure that post-election, all election petitions are determined before anybody is sworn in. That is what they do in Kenya. Why not in Nigeria? For now, Bola Tinubu and the APC will benefit from this omission in the Nigerian Constitution. But the people’s consciousness has been awoken. Legal frameworks emerge on the basis of lessons learnt. Those who doubt the integrity and the legitimacy of the process that made the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to declare Tinubu as President-elect are bound to stay on this question until it is resolved, ahead of future elections. Such persons have the right to raise questions.

For now, therefore, let us reflect on the reality of a Tinubu Presidency that stares us in the face. He has not yet been sworn in, he is already acting as President. He has since moved into the Defence House, the traditional residence for Nigeria’s President in waiting. The other day, the Rivers State Government invited him to commission two projects and a two-day holiday was declared to host him. His supporters are now taking out family attires, the famous aso ebi. Materials have been submitted to tailors and fashion designers. No one should be surprised if Tinubu invites the opposition party leaders to his inauguration and quite a number would show up on D-Day. Has Action Alliance (AA) not withdrawn its petition at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal without giving any reason? For Bola Tinubu, May 29 would be a significant moment – the day that the kingmaker of many years takes the throne for which he had long prepared himself. His campaign slogan was “Emilokan” – “it is my turn”- May 29 would be a culmination of a life-long ambition, carefully executed over the years, from the days of NADECO struggle to Senatorial position, Governorship, and a crafty, deliberate, even if cynical construction of power, name recognition and influence. It would be history made on May 29, because Tinubu would have become the third South Westerner and the fifth Southerner – after Aguiyi Ironsi, Ernest Shonekan, Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan to lead Nigeria.

In 1966, July, in the heat of the counter-coup, Brigadier Babfemi Ogundipe who was next in line to Ironsi had to flee abroad when his Northern aides threatened to kill him. In the First and Second Republics, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who was most prepared for office and leadership never achieved the dream of becoming Nigeria’s President. In 1993, Chief MKO Abiola who emerged winner of what has been adjudged the freest and fairest election in Nigerian history was denied victory because the military led by General Ibrahim Babangida annulled the election. When Tinubu wears the Presidential sash on May 29, he would have succeeded where other clearly accomplished Yoruba sons “failed”. Such is the irony of life, but it is also the reason why Tinubu as a Nigerian President from the South and from the South West would be assuming a heavy burden of history. Being President alone, even for a week is probably enough for him – his name would have entered the annals of history. But that cannot be enough. The President-elect must not look forward to the fulfilment of naked ambition. He cannot go to Aso Villa in Abuja to drink tea, eat free food, and pick his teeth afterwards with toothpick. I dare say that toothpicks should be banned from Aso Villa forthwith. When a man sits on the stone of destiny, he sits atop a huge responsibility.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Presidential candidate engaged Nigerians with an 80-page manifesto which he titled “Renewed Hope”. I would be surprised if he has read his own manifesto. It took some time for that manifesto to be announced. His campaign managers disowned several versions before they finally decided on the 88-page document. Now here is the deal – in Nigeria, political manifestoes are written by a hired team who put out textbook ideas and tell the people what they want to hear which is why all the Presidential manifestoes in the 2023 Presidential election mouthed the same platitudes, an expression of the lack of clear ideological lines in contemporary Nigerian politics. This is the reason why under the Buhari administration, we had the interesting experience of a sitting President denying some of the contents of his own campaign manifesto. The ideas were not his, they were put there by the political jobbers aiming for the right sound bites. Nobody should be surprised if Tinubu also distances himself from some of the verbiage in his campaign document. But we expect him to reduce his priorities to clear, policy choices that can be monitored. No verbiage, just very clear actionable points. President Umaru Yar’Adua (2007 – 2010) had a seven point plus two special interest issues agenda for Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan (2010 – 2015) announced a Transformation Agenda with four special targets to seek profound changes in social, economic, political and the institutional structure of the country. President Muhammadu Buhari (2015 – 2023) eventually reduced his campaign manifesto to a specific three-point agenda. President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu is advised to follow the same pattern. I propose the following actionable, eight-point agenda, not necessarily in their order of importance.

One: The first big elephant in the room that the Tinubu administration has to deal with when it assumes office on May 29, right after the inauguration banquet is the removal of fuel subsidy. It is first and foremost a matter of law. Both the Appropriation Act 2023, and the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 prescribes a window of exit from the petroleum subsidy regime that does not extend beyond June 1, 2023. There is no provision for the funding of subsidy in the budget beyond that point. The Buhari administration had cleverly avoided taking responsibility for removing fuel subsidy and shifted the goal post claiming there could be “consequences” in a Bloomberg interview. The same administration has further saved itself from public backlash by saying it has secured an $800 million facility from the World Bank for the provision of palliatives, but it is now up to an expanded committee including the in-coming administration’s team to take a decision. It looks like a set up to me. Buhari would walk away as the man who was wary of “consequences”. Tinubu will be required to use his head to break the coconut. If the subsidy remains beyond the provisions of the law, and no attempt is made to amend the law, Tinubu would be starting off his Presidency by breaking the laws of Nigeria.

The government would have set out on a note of illegality. It would be akin to the Buhari administration violating the Procurement Act and the CBN Act with regard to CBN Ways and Means, and here on the eve of Buhari’s Departure, the National Assembly says it has approved the violation of the law. When the legislature breaks its own laws, and does so with immunity, then a country is in trouble. If it may be any consolation to those who are opposed to INEC’s declaration of Tinubu as President-elect, the truth is that the man is going to inherit a troubled nation. The country is broke. After May 29, it may not be able to meet its financial obligations. The question of fuel subsidy is a kind of poetic justice for Tinubu. In 2012, he and his allies organized designer protests at Ojota, Lagos and elsewhere to oppose fuel subsidy removal. If we had removed subsidy then, Nigeria would have since adjusted. Tinubu is saddled with the evil day that he postponed. He must either show courage or act cowardly. Economists for more than two decades have not changed their position from Lagos to Washington DC, that a fuel subsidy regime is unsustainable. It is important to state this because there are some ruling party hangers-on who have been saying that once Dangote Refinery comes on stream on May 22, then government can remove fuel subsidy. The two must be separated. It would be the ultimate act of cowardice to use the Dangote Refinery and the expected 650, 000 barrels a day as the fall guy for years of government incompetence. It is either Tinubu has the courage to act, or he would take a cowardly option which would again postpone the evil day.

Two: Revenue is a problem. We have been told this again and again by Nigeria’s financial managers and that the main challenge is to widen Nigeria’s revenue base. The Bretton Woods institutions in their Economic Outlook Reports on Nigeria have said more or less the same thing. Nigeria’s next administration has to find ways of increasing revenue. The easiest recommendation is to say government has to collect more taxes or widen the tax base. Nigerians are already groaning under the weight of too many taxes and they can’t see what anybody does with the taxes, and so, whatever government proposes, the people are suspicious. Tinubu, given his reputation as the man behind Alpha Beta, the tax collection agency in Lagos would find it difficult to tell Nigerians to pay more taxes. They would think he just wants to hand over Nigeria to Alpha Beta and collect bigger shares of the cake. Tinubu cannot be a tax collector of Nigeria. He will be resisted by everybody! His advisers must therefore look at other options. He has to prune down the cost of governance, starting with his own example. He must start by implementing the Oronsaye Report on Governance. All forms of duplication must be eliminated. There must be legislation telling Governors and Local Government Chairmen that they cannot have more than two assistants, maximum five and that everybody must stop going about as if they have just inherited the world. The COVID-19 crisis has shown that if Nigerian leaders stay at home for medical care, they can survive. Everyone, including the President must be told clearly that whatever they cannot treat in Nigeria may as well kill them. We are in the age of technology. Jumping around at public expense to treat gout and arthritis is unacceptable. Whoever wants to do so must show proof that they are spending personal funds! Tinubu must address Nigeria’s health sector crisis.

Three: Tinubu has been a long-time apostle of federalism. He has written a book on it. Symposia have been held in his honour on the subject. As Governor of Lagos State, he took President Olusegun Obasanjo to court on the subject of the creation of Local councils and the true reading of Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution. He won. I am not very sure that President Obasanjo has forgiven him for that. He now steps into the same shoes that Obasanjo occupied. He cannot run an imperial Presidency! If that sounds like another curse of nemesis, Tinubu must be made to realize that given his own antecedents and causes that he championed, he has to show that he truly believes in Federalism. One of his first tasks must be to support the devolution of powers, give the states more responsibilities and make the Federal Government more compact and effective. Anything otherwise would be used against him. He could come across as a hypocrite on the question of federalism, and he would have allowed OBJ to have a very good, last laugh in this emerging game of thrones.

Four: Tinubu has been a champion of a special status for Lagos. He is now in a position to make that happen. But he must resist the temptation to be a Yoruba or Lagos President. It is not only Lagos that deserves a special status. He must add to that agenda, Kaduna and Enugu. He must be the President of all of Nigeria, a unifier, not a divisive village chief. The same Lagosians who did not vote for him on February 25 would expect that he should do more for Lagos. He must not repeat the error of ethnic irredentism in Nigerian politics. He must avoid a winner-takes-it-all approach.

Five: He must sanitize the budgeting and procurement processes. Six; he must take a quick look at the foreign exchange regime. Seven: empower the security agencies, particularly the police. Eight: respect media freedom and the demands of Nigerian youths. These are low-hanging fruits. We wait. We watch.

Sudan, Africa’s third largest country is at the brink of disintegration, because two belligerent Generals _ Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan of the Sudanese Army and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, head of a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are determined to destroy their own country for selfish reasons. They were allies previously when they worked together to oust Omar al-Bashir, the dictator and butcher of Sudan, but now the two Generals have turned against each other. They are fighting over power and position, backed on both sides by powerful outside interests whose main target is access to the rich resources of Sudan – gold, oil reserves, and gum Arabic. Sudan is the confluence for the White and Blue Nile to form the Nile. Egypt and Ethiopia have serious need of the Nile. About 10% of global trade passes through the Red Sea, around which Sudan is also strategically located. In the international community, there has been a scramble for the rich resources of Africa, since the colonial times, leading to the partition of Africa, slave trade, and the reduction of Africa to a source of raw materials to be exploited at cheap rates by Western and Eastern powers for their own gain.

The international community, for more than 100 years has talked about a global community of values, the equality and sovereignty of states, globalization, human rights and the common heritage of mankind but the same people who mouth those ideas the most are the most hypocritical. Africa is their convenient play-ground. Russia is seeking to control more of Sudan’s gold. It is backing the RSF in Sudan through the Wagner mercenaries. China also has its eyes on Sudan. Egypt is backing al-Burhan. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is pro-RSF. This is part of the drama playing out in Sudan: the hidden hands of hypocrites. But this has been possible before now in Liberia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Mali, Cote D’Ivoire and elsewhere because Africa has an unlucky supply of bad leaders. General Omar al Bashir brought Sudan to its knees, instigated a civil war in Darfur. He ended up as an international felon and left behind a deluge. His country has not known peace since he was ousted in a coup in 2019. The same people who got him out of power are not better either: Generals Burhan and Dagalo have frustrated Sudan’s transition programme and now that country is practically in a war situation. Sudan is an apt illustration of the saying that “when two elephants fight, the grass suffers.” Indeed the people of Sudan are suffering. Hundreds of them have been killed, thousands have been displaced, artillery guns are booming on the streets of Khartoum. Normal life is impossible.

As Sudan slips into chaos, and a humanitarian crisis explodes, the international community, apart from urging peace and a ceasefire, has embarked on the evacuation of their nationals in Sudan. Every country has a responsibility to protect and secure the lives of its citizens whenever they are in distress in any part of the world. We have seen that happen during the war in Ukraine, the crisis in Somalia, and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nothing inspires patriotism and nationalism more than the feeling that your country truly considers you important. It is in this sense that we have seen many countries rushing to Sudan and getting their people out of harm’s way before the imminent blow-out. By Sunday, April 30, Britain had airlifted about 2, 122 people on 23 flights from Sudan through the Wadi Saeedna airfield near Khartoum. Yesterday, Britain further told UK citizens to head towards Port Sudan for an extra flight out of Sudan. Initially, the British government had said that NHS doctors without passports would not be airlifted, and that priorities would be given to British citizens and their families. James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary who had initially complained about complexity has since said that those without passports have now been included in the flight to Cyprus, before the final journey home. The Royal Airforce and the Navy led the evacuation exercise. They went right inside Sudan and got their people out.

Similarly, the United States has dispatched its special operations forces to Sudan, aerial surveillance assets and unmanned but combat-ready drones. A Naval ship – UNS Brunswick, a fast-transport vessel was deployed by the Pentagon to the Port of Sudan. Two other ships are on the ground – the USS Truxtun, an Arleigh-Burke class destroyer and the USS Puller. The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) based in Stuttgart is co-ordinating the evacuation. On Saturday, the US evacuated all its embassy staff out of Khartoum. Other US citizens have been ferried out of Khartoum in buses, guided by drones and other aerial assets. With China and Russia involved in the Sudanese crisis, and given the strategic regional importance of the country, America’s interest in Sudan is understandable. Part of its present mission is to ensure “Red Sea Security”. The US is a partner of the Sudanese Armed Forces. Our key point is that the US, like 10 other countries, has moved swiftly to protect its citizens, and chosen to be strongly on standby off the coast of Sudan in case the situation further deteriorates. China has also sent a military vessel to the Sudan to evacuate Chinese personnel. India over the weekend also dispatched a patrol vessel, INS Sumedha to the Port of Sudan with two Indian Air Force aircraft – the C-130J transport aircraft stationed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. India has so far evacuated 3, 000 of its nationals from Sudan. Other countries that have acted pro-actively include Germany, Canada, Italy, Turkey, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, South Africa, France and the Netherlands. It is not an easy operation. On Sunday, a convoy trying to take French embassy staff in Khartoum to safety ran into a hail of gunfire. France has shut down its embassy in Khartoum. There is a race out of Sudan, as a 72-hour negotiated ceasefire and a further extension have failed, and bodies litter the streets, aerial bombardments continue, and Sudan begins to look like a convenient ground for geo-political war.

The foregoing picture leads us inexorably to one question: what is Nigeria doing to rescue its own nationals, about 5, 500 of them, and more who are mostly students who are stranded in Sudan. The figure is probably higher. Data from official sources in Nigeria are never reliable. Nigerians have been going to Sudan since the era of trans-Saharan Caravan trade, ad there may well be millions of us in that place. As the conflict in Sudan enters its third week, it is a crying shame that all that we have been getting from the Federal Government are excuses and such funny explanations that no serious country should offer. We have seen videos of Nigerians that are stranded in Sudan, most of them students, complaining about how they have been neglected by their government. We have seen families crying out for help. Nigerian youths are so aggrieved they have threatened to attack family members of Nigerian Embassy officials in Sudan. They say our Embassy officials are charging them $250 to be put on the evacuation list, Sudan is charging $8 per person, and those who have managed to get to the border of Egypt are being asked to cough out $25. While the Sudanese are fighting, Nigerians are staging a backward drama of their own. Nigeria’s Ambassador to Sudan, Safiu Olaniyan has had cause to cry out in a voice note, appealing to Nigerians in Sudan not to attack Embassy officials. He made it clear that they, the Embassy officials, are as vulnerable as other Nigerians in Sudan, and that nobody should attack them. According to him, the responsibility for managing the evacuation of stranded Nigerians is with the Ministry of Disaster and Humanitarian Affairs and the Nigerian Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) back home in Nigeria, but that he and his team would continue to liaise with the Nigerian authorities. Can you imagine a country’s envoy throwing his own home authorities under the bus? It is not just Nigerians that are stranded in Sudan, it is Nigeria itself that is stranded. Compared to what other countries are doing, Nigeria looks like it has no shame.

Last Friday, I asked for explanations on another platform in order to give Abuja the benefit of the doubt. They had promised that the first batch of Nigerians would return from Sudan on Friday. Allen Onyema, Chairman and founder of Air Peace Airline publicly offered to use his aircraft to airlift Nigerians out of Sudan, without charging a penny. His aircraft were ready. Since the Nigerian government had promised that Nigerians would be airlifted through Egypt, he went ahead and secured landing rights for Air Peace at his own expense in Egypt. The Aliko Dangote Foundation has also announced that it would partner with Air Peace to do whatever it takes to get Nigerians out of Sudan. Countries benefit from the philanthropy of some of their best citizens who complement government’s efforts without expecting anything in return. We saw that during the COVID-19 pandemic when Dangote led a private sector coalition to provide help. We saw that when Allen Onyema went to Ukraine to bring Nigerians out of Ukraine when war broke out. We saw that when during the xenophobic attacks in South Africa, Allen Onyema took the risk of helping to evacuate Nigerians. But the Nigerian government always disappoints, and that is precisely what they are doing in Sudan.

Once upon a time, Nigeria had the dream of becoming a world power. We boastfully referred to ourselves as the giant of Africa and our leaders could call the shots across the African continent, and fight for a seat at the United Nations Security Council. When Professor Bolaji Akinyemi was Minister of Foreign Affairs: he talked about such ideas as the Concert of Medium Powers and the Black Bomb and Nigeria as a world power. The situation in Sudan has just exposed how we have lost it. Three weeks after the Sudanese crisis began, Nigeria is talking about how much was spent to hire buses that would evacuate Nigerians. Dr. Sani Gwarzo, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Disaster and Humanitarian Affairs has given a press conference where he reportedly affirmed that Nigeria had set aside $1.2 million to engage bus drivers and that so far 26 buses have been engaged, each at a cost of $30, 000. N24 million to hire a bus from Khartoum to Port Sudan or Aswan? He said the money was sent through third parties. Dr. Gwarzo and the Situation Room on the Evacuation of Nigerians from Sudan which he chairs, must be told that they have more explanations to offer. He said 40 buses were engaged, but only 26 have been seen. What happened to the $1.2 million then? There was even that ugly incident as reported, whereby drivers taking Nigerians to Aswan, the Egyptian border stopped in the middle of the desert and told the distraught Nigerian passengers to pay or be left in the desert. They were there for five hours! The buses eventually started moving, only for us to be told again, yesterday, that one of the buses conveying 50 Nigerian students, tagged Katsina 1, caught fire. What kind of embarrassment is this? Are we serious at all?

What is worse is that the Nigeria Air Force (NAF) on Saturday sent a Hercules C-130 to Aswan, Egypt to get Nigerians back home. The NAF crew of 14 left with food supplies, but that crew is stranded at the airport. What is meant to be a swift operation has turned into a nightmare. The NAF is being charged heavily by the Egyptian authorities. The NAF crew is stranded. In Sudan and back home in Nigeria, we are told that the country is having logistics and diplomatic challenges. After three weeks, nobody is sure when Nigeria would airlift its first batch of evacuees. The Nigerian Air Force crew of 14 is suggesting that it is better to use Port Sudan, rather than Egypt, which is insisting on visa and payments.

What the hell is happening to African Unity? Egypt has provided support for other countries. Sudan has not asked the Americans for money. Somalia took its people out through the Ethiopian border. Sudan is surrounded by seven African countries. Nigeria is being snubbed by Egypt. Can’t we arrange to evacuate our people through another country? Or are we so hated diplomatically in Africa that nobody would offer our people easy passage? Why would Egypt ask Nigerians for visa in an emergency rescue operation? This is clearly a failure of diplomacy. Every African country treats us shabbily, especially the North African countries. The only exception was Muammar Ghaddafi of Libya during his lifetime. He had a grand vision of African Unity, but other North African leaders relate with sub-Saharan Africa only when they have something to gain. Please, where is the African Union and the regional economic groups in Africa? What is left of African integration? Has anybody deemed it necessary to summon the Egyptian ambassador in Nigeria? The NAF crew is recommending that Nigeria is better off evacuating our people through Port Sudan. Have we sent an aircraft there? Do we have a functioning Naval vessel that can provide transportation from Port Sudan to Nigeria, or do we need to hire Navy transportation?

Nigerians in Sudan want to be rescued from a war situation. Their families at home want them to be safe. If Nigerian officials have nothing intelligent to tell us, the minimum that they can do is to bring our people home, and until they have something concrete to tell us, they should do us the favour of avoiding plainly stupid excuses. It is painful that a country like Somalia is able to rescue its nationals from Sudan and my own country is busy telling Moonlight tales. If they need help, let them approach the British and the Americans or even the International Red Cross, or perhaps the Chinese, without getting involved in any matter beyond rescue and evacuation. As I write, a story pops up that the Egyptian President has now approved that Nigerians can be airlifted out of Aswan after President Muhammadu Buhari spoke to him, but with stringent conditions. Are we supposed to be excited about that? Did Egypt insist on the same stringent conditions with other countries? For the past four days, over 600 Nigerians have been stranded at the Egyptian border. For two days, our Air Force has been treated shabbily in Aswan. The only thing to say is that when our people are safely evacuated back home, we would believe the endless stories. What a country!