Just as they say that social media neither sleep nor slumber, history also never forgets! The saying goes that today’s happenings constitute tomorrow’s history. Some of my contemporaries at Great Ife used to summarise History, my course of study, as “Oba ku; Oba je” meaning, one king dies and another reigns in his stead. Or they would say History is the study of the rise and fall of empires. That is not exactly true, though; but these cliches remind us that words and actions perisheth not. There is no “a-se-gbe”or “a-so-gbe” but every word and action lies in wait for us, to bare their fangs at a later date. So watch your word! Weigh it before you utter it. For, once uttered, it cannot be retrieved. “Ohun l’eyin” The words that we speak are like an egg; once it breaks, no Jupiter can collect and put it back in its shell.

In today’s Nigeria, no set of people get more careless with the spoken word as well as with their actions as the politicians. Often, they speak before they think and leap before they look. They are so audacious and reckless that they get entangled now and again when reference is made to their past statements and deeds. The one who said he would go on exile if a particular politician won the last presidential election not only still sits pretty in his Lagos home, he has also become a defender of the same politician he lambasted again and again! The pastor who said “Cut off one of my arms…” if so, so, and so, a politician wins the last presidential election has failed to submit himself for amputation! Or the one that said he would stop worshipping God and become an idol worshiper if the elected presidential candidate got sworn-in has not made good his threat. One who asked Amadiora, the god of thunder, to fire him if he ever defects from his political party has defected! Another who described the opposition party in the most flattering manner today sits and eats on the same party’s dining table!

It is good to keep records! I came across two documents that fascinated me last weekend as I turned around my library. I have a collection of newspapers, magazines and other publications, foreign and local, many of which are no longer in print, that I am putting together as a Journalism Library that students and teachers of journalism, journalists themselves and those in search of knowledge can consult in due course. My first find was an exchange between cerebral and ideological Dr. Segun Osoba (as he then was) and Professor L. Beverley Halstead, both of the then University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University), Ile-fe. It was dated February 1974, more than four years before I gained admission into the same institution as an undergraduate student.

The Segun Osoba referred to here is not Chief Segun Osoba, the celebrated journalist, one-time civilian governor of Ogun State, and now chieftain of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Dr. Osoba was one of the leading ideological puritans of the 1970s and 80s who can rightly be described as one of the lecturers accused by Nigeria’s expired military junta of those years of the locusts as teaching (Nigerian youths) what they (the lecturers) were not paid to teach! And what was that? Social consciousness and decolonization of the mind. Dr. Osoba, together with his ideological soulmate, Dr. Yusufu Bala Usman of the Ahmadu Bello University, authoured the 1976 minority report and draft constitution arising from the Constitution Drafting Committee empaneled by the then military Head of State, Gen. Murtala Muhammed. We shall soon return to that.

The second document was a Saturday PUNCH newspaper report of August 20, 2016 with a screaming front page headline titled: “I and others brought Buhari to salvage Nigeria - Obasanjo". The story, which carried the byline of Hindi Livinus reporting from Yola in Adamawa State, was credited to former President Olusegun Obasanjo and it ran fully on page 29 thus: “Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has said that he and four other eminent Nigerians brought President Muhammadu Buhari to salvage Nigeria from its current challenges. He said they took the decision when they felt that the country stood at a crossroads. Obasanjo said, ‘Three or four of us from different parts of the country got together and said to ourselves: what do we do? We said, what is the problem with us and why are we still not growing? We got talking and knew we needed to do something. What do we need to deal with, for this Nigeria of ours to become what God has created it to be? A land flowing with milk and honey - that is the intention of God for creating Nigeria”. The former president, who spoke on Thursday at a reception held in his honour at the Government House, Yola, Adamawa State, said, so far, Buhari has not disappointed the country. He said, ‘So far, Buhari has not disappointed us. I trust him; he will not fail Nigerians. I know he will overcome the challenges the country is currently facing’. He, however, said Nigeria needed to get its acts right in the areas of policies, governance and leadership for the country to develop….”

We should end the story there! In retrospect, what will Obasanjo say of his vouching for Buhari and of his bringing him to power? I am sure you know that the coming of Buhari was where the rain that was beating us in drizzles in the time of Goodluck Jonathan began to pour in torrents. Now that it rains brimstones and fire under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, we still cannot exonerate Buhari. Who were the two or three other people that, together with Obasanjo, brought Buhari to “salvage” Nigeria? Is President Tinubu one of them or did he act solo, since he, too, has told us he played an important role in Buhari’s emergence as president? Rather than salvage, Buhari savaged Nigeria! As my people would say, when you mention a tortoise, you also mention the forest from which you picked it. The tortoise in this way is Buhari and the forest are those who helped him into office.

Back to the Osoba/Halstead tango. Halstead (whispering into Osoba’s ears, almost in a conspiratorial tone): Do you know that there is considerable unease about the address you are to give to the students tomorrow morning? Osoba (in normal conversational voice audible to all): In which quarters is this unease? Halstead: In the highest quarters in the administration of the university. Osoba: Do you know why they feel uneasy? Halstead: I believe they fear that you would incite the students to commit acts of violence. Osoba: If these people do not know what I am capable of doing in a situation like this, then, I cannot be held responsible for their paranoia! Halstead: What are you addressing the students on? Osoba: Student power in a situation of public moral crisis. Halstead: What is student power? Osoba: I am surprised that you don’t know what student power is! It is this kind of attitude that makes conversation between two people impossible - when one party constantly asks the other to define terms that are generally understood. Halstead: I am not just concerned with definitions; I want your view of what student power is. Osoba: I cannot help you but I believe you have seen the notice issued from the Vice-Chancellor’s office earlier today, informing College chairmen, Deans, Heads of Departments, etc. about the decisions of the students to make tomorrow a lecture-free day. If you want to know student power in its crudest form, try tomorrow to deliver your Zoology lecture to an empty room. This is the most concrete form of student power. Halstead: In any case, why should you, a senior member of the academic staff, be involved in what is exclusively a student affairs? Osoba: Because I owe a responsibility to the students. If they invite me to address them, as they have done on this occasion, I consider it my responsibility to respond to their call as it would give me an opportunity to focus their attention on serious and creative, rather than trivial and destructive, issues. Halstead: My own responsibility to the students is to teach them Biology; no more, no less. Osoba: I am not surprised that your responsibility does not go beyond that because, as a soldier of fortune, you have no stake in this society and, therefore, no commitment to anything other than your career as a Biology professor. My own view of studentship is that it affords our young men and women an opportunity not only to acquire specialised and professional skills but also to undergo training in responsible leadership and citizenship; and it is the duty of those of us who have a stake in this country to contribute to their development in the two main areas of their education. Halstead: But they are not all going to be leaders. Osoba: That is true but by the logic of natural selection, many of them are going to play significant leadership roles in this society and, in any case, they are all going to be citizens of this country. Hence, the responsibility one has in contributing to their development as responsible citizens and leaders. Halstead: But you also have a responsibility to the authorities of this university; haven’t you? Osoba: Yes, but I have my priorities in this regard. My first responsibility is to my conscience; second is to the tax-payers of this country without whose sacrifice there can be no university; third, is to the students without whom none of us - administrators, professors, and lecturers - will be here, and fourth to the administration. Halstead: In any case, what are the serious and creative issues you will be talking about tomorrow?”

One of the lecturers also present at the debate then cut in: "Why don’t you take a look at the text of his (Osoba’s) address?” Osoba: No, he cannot! If he is interested in learning about the responsible use of student power, he should come to the ceremony at the Sports Centre tomorrow at 10.15am. Halstead: I would like to come but I may be held up by the current Geology conference. Osoba: If you cannot come, you can always ask me for the text of the address, which is typewritten, but that would be after the ceremony. Halstead: That's alright. I’ll try to come but if not, I will be glad to read the text. Goodnight! Osoba: Goodnight!”

Dr. Osoba eventually went ahead to deliver his address to the “Great Ife” students on Friday, 1st February, 1974, which was the 3rd anniversary of the gruesome murder of the University of Ibadan undergraduate, Adekunle Adepeju, felled by police bullet during a student demonstration in 1971.

The Osoba lecture itself and the ding-dong afterwards between him and Professor Halstead will be another discussion for another day!

Before I get badgered by those unwilling to read or lacking in the discipline to digest concepts, let me announce upfront that no insults are intended by either the title or the message below. But I have seen enough of the rush to abuse, by those who miss the meaning of concepts different from their everyday usage, that I suspect an upfront caveat may slow down the rush to conclusion by those who give meaning to the real insult, which is that the best way to hide something from most of us is to write it down in a book. The fear of reading should be overcome so we can find meaning and understanding. I know Nigeria is in grave danger from cleavages separating us from them, as emotion steps down reason, in many, including some very well educated and even a few I know of who built reputations as cosmopolitan thought leaders. These  may sometime soon confront the puzzle and the shame the German elite dealt with after World War II. 

That was also the lot of some in Rwanda who were confronted with their past after the Genocide and the triumph of Paul Kagame. 

I have chosen therefore to leave everyday meaning of the words Idiot and stupid and use them in context, as conceptual expressions of phenomena by philosophers and social scientists.

To the wise men of Ancient Greece we  first turn for their typology of men in society. Those who think of themselves alone as the basis for engagement  they called Idiots. Not an insult. Just a category.

Those who think of and empathise with others so long as those others share paroachial bonds, like blood lines, language or religion, they called tribesmen. As Joshua Greene elucidates in the book: Moral Tribes, exploring emotion, reason and the growing gap between us and them, the tribes man is threatened by outside groups and is perpetually at war with those outside his tribe.

When people mature to a universal sense of the dignity of the human person and live human solidarity, they move up to the category of citizen. All you need do is navigate social media today and you will encounter the reign of tribesmen in extant Nigeria. 

Make a trick statement and you will discover they don’t read. Once your name fits those they are programmed to insult they hit the keyboard saying the same things they said yesterday. And the day before. Many were deployed there by politicians purportedly trying to build a nation. 

Then there is the concept of stupidity. Back in my days in Grad School in the late 1970s I was struck by the work of several academics at the University of California, Berkeley. One was a public policy scholar, Aaron Wildavsky, and the other was Carlo M Cipolla. The former gave us the value of complex redundancy in policy formulation and the latter gave us the five laws of human stupidity.

Cipolla defined a stupid person as one who causes losses to others when he or she may not benefit from the action they chant for and may, in fact, suffer loss from that action.

Cipolla studied human history and found a pervasive influence of stupid people. He then offers us the five laws of human stupidity. The first law is that we always underestimate the number of stupid people in circulation. The second is that the probability of stupidity in a person is independent of his other characteristics such as his education or wealth. The third is that this person supporting wrong that cause harm to others may not even think of personal benefit from that harm. Fourth is that non stupid people always underestimate the danger of being associated with the stance of the stupid and how that underestimation will eventually impact them at very high cost. The  fifth law states that the stupid person is a most dangerous person; often more dangerous than bandits.

The Berkeley Economic historian had categorized man in society just like the Greeks did, and found four types of people: The Intelligent, the bandits, the unfortunate and the stupid. 

The Intelligent are those who aim to benefit themselves and others (win/win); the bandits are those who benefit themselves by harming others, the unfortunate are those who do harm while trying to benefit others, The stupid are those who seek harm to others without benefiting from it.

Any time you see a person cheering passionately for a politician whose conduct does not make sense or who harm the common good,  you are looking at a stupid person, no matter their other characteristics of education, wealth or social status. Even more troubling, as Cipolla  tells us is that there are so many more of them than we like to believe. So take a good look at the fellow next to you.

When Idiots from the Greek typology become stupid, as in  the Ciipolla  thesis, society is in grave crisis. 

All you have to do to recognise we live in dangerous times in Nigeria is to step back and examine the scene that is Nigeria today and you will see an army of stupid idiots marching as Hitler youth did, to the drums of harm to others. A few may be bandits but the majority are simple stupid idiots. Please remember no insult  is intended here. Just a social scientist pointing to phenomena that fit existing theory. 

Highly educated German professionals went that way with ultimately devastating costs to humanity and their country in the Weimar Republic as Hitler, powered by Goebbels propaganda, went to work.. One of them stopped midway into his support of the words of harm to others, and began to ask why, of the Nazis. It did not matter that he was once a supporter.  The Lutheran Priest, Martin Niemoller, who questioned things, spent most of the war years in Concentration camps and prisons. 

After the war he spoke those immortal words of the imperative of speaking up…first they came for the socialists and I did not speak up because I was not a socialist…Then they came for the Jews and I did not speak up..,when finally they came for me there was no one left to speak up.

His moral imperative for speaking up in times of moral crisis has always led me to Dante’s inferno and the hottest part of hell being reserved for those who in a moral crisis seek refuge in neutrality. But it is to Dietrich  Bonhoeffer we must reserve the glory of the Quatto on this matter. He insists we have more to fear from stupid people than evil ones, for evil is easy to identify and fight but not so for stupidity. Stupidity comes dressed up as journalists, academics and even as men of God. Bonhoeffer states unequivocally that silence in the face of evil is itself evil., and not to speak is to speak as not to act is actually to act.

This is why I try to act not necessarily to be seen as acting but because as Bonhoeffer mused, if you board the wrong train it is no use going to the corridor and start running in the opposite direction.

With passionate commitment to the mantra that Nigeria will rise up again and the conviction that this phase will pass away, if we act right, I have Labored on. I have helped found the new tribe, a movement of Nigerians seeking a values driven society based on personal integrity, the work ethic, merit, inclusion and a push back on Ghandi’s deadly social sins like politics without principles, wealth without work, education without character, etc. All who are minded are not to escape the stupid idiot tag are welcome to check the portal thenewtribe.ng and find a cohort to act in concert with. But a person can also act alone so long as they assert the dignity of the human person and seek the common good.

If there is one thing Nigeria needs now, in the face of today’s crisis, it is people who can speak truth to power as we are preyed on by state capture , creeping fascism and the criminal hijack of politics, and a collapse of the checks and balances of the estates of the realm. When people who were known for protests threaten to try those who follow in their footsteps for treason you do not need to be told that there are snakes in the Rafia roof.

. Patrick Okedinachi Utomi is a professor of Political Economy and founder of the Centre for Values in Leadership.

In the early hours of dawn, before the world stirs to life, a rooster breaks the stillness with its crow. This ritual, as ancient as time itself, signifies more than just the start of a new day; it is a testament to instinct and fulfillment of purpose. In many ways, the relentless urge to write mirrors this fundamental behavior. Just as the rooster cannot resist the pull to announce the day, writers around the globe feel an innate compulsion to express themselves through words. It begs the question: why do we suppress this natural instinct, and what would happen if we allowed it to thrive?

The analogy of the rooster’s crow powerfully encapsulates the essence of the writing process. Writing is not merely a mechanical task, nor is it confined to those who proudly claim the title of “writer.” It is a primal, instinctive act that is deeply rooted in our humanity. As children, we scribbled our thoughts and dreams without inhibition. Over time, societal expectations and self-doubt often obscure this initial joy. Yet, underneath it all, the calling to create remains, a voice waiting to be unleashed.

When we allow ourselves to embrace this natural urge to write, we engage in a form of catharsis. Many writers describe the experience of putting words on paper as a release, an opportunity to articulate thoughts that might otherwise remain dormant. The process becomes transformative, turning raw emotion into carefully crafted prose or poetry. It is a means of processing life’s complexities, a sanctuary for the troubled mind, and a celebration of joy. Just as the rooster awakens the world, writing allows us to confront our fears, share our triumphs, and connect with others on a profound level.

Moreover, writing serves as a powerful tool for awakening consciousness. In an age characterized by rapid technological advances and relentless digital distractions, the act of writing invites readers to slow down, reflect, and engage. It fosters conversations that might otherwise be lost in the cacophony of modern life. Each word penned has the potential to ignite change, spark dialogue, and inspire movements, powerful testaments to the idea that writing is not just a solitary endeavor but a collective one. The stories we tell can bridge divides, challenge societal norms, and cultivate empathy. They are conversations waiting to unfold across boundaries and generations.

Yet, despite the proven benefits of writing, many people remain hesitant to engage in the practice. The fear of inadequacy, the belief that they are not “real” writers or the dread of facing a blank page can serve as formidable obstacles. This is where we must draw inspiration from the rooster: it crows because it must, not because it seeks validation. Writers, too, must learn to silence the inner critic and honor their instinctual compulsion to create. Whether it is through journaling, storytelling, poetry, or any form of written expression, each individual has a voice that deserves to be heard.

In a world that often prioritizes silence over expression, it is vital to encourage a culture that celebrates the act of writing. We must create spaces, both physical and mental, where individuals feel safe to explore their thoughts and emotions freely. Schools, communities, and organizations should champion writing programs and workshops aimed at fostering creativity and self-expression. Encouraging the next generation to embrace their voices will only enrich our society.

Furthermore, embracing the natural call to write is a step toward self-discovery. It allows individuals to explore their identities, values, and experiences, leading to greater self-awareness. In a time when disconnection and isolation seem pervasive, writing can act as a bridge, connecting us to ourselves and to one another. The stories we share hold the power to unite us in our shared humanity, reminding us that we are not alone in our struggles and triumphs.

Against the foregoing the backdrop, it is germane to opine that the urge to write is as natural and vital as the dawn itself. Like the rooster’s crow, it is a proclamation of existence, an invitation to wake up to our thoughts and to share them with the world. As we learn to embrace and celebrate our instinct to write, we unlock the potential within ourselves and those around us. Let us honor this innate call and allow our voices to ring out, filling the silence with the beauty of our stories. Let us create a world where writing is not just an act of communication but a celebration of our shared journey through life. In doing so, we may find that, like the morning sun, our words have the power to illuminate even the darkest corners of existence.

Personally, I write because it serves as a vital outlet for my thoughts and emotions, allowing me to articulate my feelings about society and government in ways that resonate both personally and collectively. In a world where opinions are often drowned out by noise, the written word provides clarity and precision. Through writing, I can delve into the complexities of our social structures, examining the nuances of inequality, injustice, and the challenges faced by various communities. Each piece I craft becomes an exploration of societal norms, shining a light on issues that demand attention and dialogue.

Moreover, writing empowers me to hold leaders accountable. In democracies and beyond, those in positions of power must be scrutinized; their actions and policies should be examined through a critical lens. My words serve as a tool of accountability, enabling me to question decisions, highlight failures, and advocate for transparency. By expressing my opinions in written form, I contribute to a necessary discourse, one that can influence public perception and encourage civic engagement.

My writing is not just a reflection of my individual perspective; it is part of a larger conversation that seeks to inspire change. Each article or essay becomes a means of rallying others to notice and confront social and political issues that impact our lives. Through the power of words, I aspire to foster awareness and provoke thought, encouraging others to join the movement for justice and equality. In this way, writing becomes both a personal journey and a collective mission, one that echoes far beyond my own experience, amplifying the voices of those who might otherwise go unheard.

In the world of journalism and public discourse, writing serves as both a reflection of society and a tool for shaping it. Opinion article, in particular, and which happens to be my forte, is essential for challenging perspectives, offering insights, and encouraging dialogue on important issues. It is through these written words that I can voice concerns, propose solutions, and provoke thought, all of which are necessary for growth, both personal and societal. Writing is my means of contributing to the conversations that shape our future.

To those who often criticize my consistent writing, I encourage you to see the purpose behind it. My goal is not to simply fill pages, but to inspire change, invoke discussion, and provide clarity where there is confusion. In each article, there is a responsibility to truth, progress, and understanding. Writing is how I engage with the world, and I hope in time, you will see its value as well.

One of the thematic preoccupations of the book, What the forest told me: Yoruba hunter, culture and narrative performance, (2014) is that, inside the forest, there is a consistent superiority war, often fierce, between man and animals. Written by Ayo Adeduntan, Research Fellow at the University of Ibadan, the book averred that, while animals sometimes win this war, succeeding in crushing hunters for supper, many atimes, hunters vanquish these forest dwellers. They fell these notorious animals renowned for bathing in the blood of their human victims. In pursuit of this theme of a superiority duel in the wild, Adeduntan was in a forest called Ìgbẹ́ Alágogo. Hunting expeditions to the Ìgbẹ́ are seasonal excursions that take hunters to Òj̣é-̣Owódé in the Òkè Ògùn area of Oyo State. There, Adeduntan interviewed a hunter called Òjó Ògúnkúnlé of Agúnrege village. Ògúnkúnlé’s narration of how his hunter-master, named Ògúnòṣ̣un, a very powerful hunter, married a buffalo and was eventually demystified by the animal, painted the picture that a mutual damage often occurs in the duel between animal and man.

The narration goes thus: One day, Ògúnkúnlé went hunting and felled a huge buffalo with his gun. Unable to process what to do with his mountainous game, the young hunter walked back kilometers to announce his kill to his master named Ògúnòṣ̣un. While they were both walking back to where the buffalo was felled, about a mile to the scene, a pretty lady walked past them and saluted on her two knees. In a magical reality that may be hard to believe, Ògúnkúnlé inferred that the buffalo was the one who morphed into the pretty lady. He told the researcher, “all of a sudden, we met the animal, the pretty woman” – “àfi pẹ̀kí n la bá pàdé ẹran l’ọ́nà, èyuùn ìyàwó. Arẹwa obinrin ni”. If Ògúnòṣ̣un had listened to Odolaye Aremu, the Ilorin musician who warned that there is always a suddenness to calamity, (pèkí làá ko èèmò) he probably would have been wary of a beautiful woman suddenly encountered in a dense forest. From wooing the buffalo-woman and taking her home, Ògúnòṣ̣un ended up marrying her. Before the marriage solemnization, according to Adeduntan’s account, the buffalo-woman gave a caveat, which I paraphrase: “Now that I’ve agreed to marry you, the day you recklessly call me an animal, you are done for.”

The buffalo-woman gave birth to children for Ògúnòṣ̣un. However, one day, the wife enraged her husband, so much that he thundered, “You good-for-nothing unlucky daughter of an animal!” (‘Àb’órí ì rẹ burú ni, ìwọ ọmọ ẹranko yìí!). A very mysterious anger immediately seized the woman who instantly morphed into her original buffalo form. As she charged at Ògúnòṣ̣un with her menacing horns, the hunter quickly reached for his hunter talisman (Ìgbàdì).The Ìgbàdì is the phial belt which hunters have recourse to, while on hunting expedition. If a ferocious animal suddenly attempted to harm them, they untied the belt. They then chanted some metaphysical verses which enabled them escape the animal’s deadly ferocity. As Ògúnòṣ̣un chanted the incantations, he landed in a prehistoric mountain on the outskirts of the village. He was however not fast enough for the buffalo which used its horn to gore him and tear his ligaments. The buffalo thereafter ran into the mountains and never returned. Ògúnòṣ̣un, said the narrator, as reported by Adeduntan, carried with him for life the cicatrices of a fractured leg. This motif of a superiority duel between animals of the forest and man is also present in D. O. Fagunwa’s Igbo Olódùmarè where the hero of the book, Olówó-Aiyé, fought the spirit, Anjonnu-Iberu, who transformed into a boa and, helped by a ravishingly beauty witch named àjẹ́diran, who gave him a magic fruit, Olówó-Aiyé transformed into an elephant and crushed the boa constrictor.

What provoked this excursion into the world of animals is a discussion said to be gaining currency among some intellectuals in Southwest Nigeria today. It is themed around the rhetorical question: Have current runners of Nigeria, led by a Yoruba, with their prodigal handling of Nigerian economy and society, not succeeded in demystifying the Yoruba myth of administrative and leadership competence? Same discussion, I learnt, is bandied in banters in Northern Nigeria today, amid sniggering laughter. So, in the ancient “war” between Yoruba and Northern Nigeria about administrative and leadership competence, has the North succeeded, like Ògúnòṣ̣un’s buffalo-woman wife, in demystifying the Yoruba buffalo?

Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s Premiership of Western Region, with its sterling and highly commended leadership, opened the trough of that narrative. That leadership was followed by another one provided by UPN governors of the Second Republic. Watched over by their leader, Awolowo, those governors also significantly showed the world the colour of developmental leadership. That was the last time the Yoruba had the opportunity to showcase their ability, until Olusegun Obasanjo came in 1999. Though he demonstrated comparative competence to lead Nigeria above all his successors, Obasanjo’s pan-Nigerian claim and overt attack on Awolowo’s leadership of Nigeria made his Yoruba people disown him as theirs. In overt flaunt and gloat, Yoruba had often said to the hearing of whoever wanted to listen that, with their centuries-old sophistication, urbane character, western education and grasp of the modern system of administration, if ever they had the opportunity to lead Nigeria, Yoruba would show the world the stuff they were made of.

2023 was that opportunity. Today, under 15 months, Nigeria has fallen into tatters under a man who answers to all the physical attributes of a Yoruba. The question being asked now is, what happened? Why did people who have always held themselves as crocodiles, suddenly turn out to be lizards? Why are people with reputation of lion, King of the Jungle, now being exposed as mere rodents-eating cats? Muhammadu Buhari, whose leadership is compared to an affliction, is almost celebrated as a mascot now by Nigerians in comparison. Aso Rock claims its reforms are like a surgical operation to correct a medical anomaly. It also says that the pains Nigerians undergo are comparable to one inflicted by the Olóólà, facemark maker, whose knife, which cuts painfully deep down into the bosom of the skin, is a precursor to beauty. To the Villa, our pain is a desirable agony. None of the reform evangelists has however been able to explain the optics we see of reformers living in stupendous comfort while targets of reforms are enmeshed in indescribable hunger. Only yesterday, we were told that the First Lady, Remi Tinubu, spent N701 million on foreign trips, in a Nigeria where the people are dying and hungry.

When they are boxed to a corner, in fitful explanations, Yoruba flaunt an explanation which demarcates the Yorubaness of present Nigerian rulers from theirs. They say occupiers of Aso Rock today are mainly coastal Yoruba. These are people, they say, who are a corrupted version of their own ancestry. Theirs, they go further to say, approximates all those qualities of the Awolowo Yoruba and it is because they are from the hinterland. In my piece of April 14, 2024 entitled The Lagos Boy’s coastal highway, I attempted a description of the coastal Yoruba thus: “Writers like Cyprian Ekwensi drew the picture of a dreadful Lagos. The ‘Lagos Boy’ could mean smartness, suavity, celebration of inanity, fraudulence, erection of facades on dross to make it look real…Even before the colonialists came, Lagos, once known as the ‘Venice of West Africa,’ was dreaded by inhabitants of the hinterland… Lagos was home to money-doublers and soul-scarred gamblers. It was where you could make quick money through mere hubris. Some other writers have described Lagos as ‘a place of desperation to make it by hook or crook,’ with some others giving it the fitting description of ‘a huge Dickensian space full of heartbreak.’

Paul French, in his ‘Lagos: Africa’s Capital of Noir’, said Lagos had popularly been described as ‘the capital of crimes such as 419 and internet fraud also known as the ‘Yahoo Yahoo’’. I also made the incontrovertible claim that, “If Tinubu lost some votes of his Yoruba people in the 2023 presidential election, it may not be too far from the truth to say that his morally prude Yoruba kinsmen from the hinterland who believed that anything Lagos was fraud were the ones who withdrew their votes.” I also said “the Lagosian has come to be classified as immune to some of the traits associated with a Yorubaman. He didn’t totally represent the gentlemanly Omoluabi ethos that undergirds the value system of the children of Oduduwa. A trustworthy Lagosian is as scarce as a hen’s teeth. He would grab and run with what doesn’t belong to him. It is repeatedly said that a Lagosian would sell particle to you as an article.” There are however many exceptions to this as there are equally Lagosians of sterling pedigrees.

By trying to remove themselves from the stain of this leadership calamity, the Yoruba seem to be answering a question posed by William Butler Yeats in one of his poems entitled ‘Among School Children’. In it, Yeats had asked, ‘How can we know the dancer from the dance?’ I am of the opinion that, rather than engage in demarcation of hinterland and coastal Yorubaness, (thereby seeking to remove the dancer from the dance) Yoruba should be more frontal in demanding that those in government today should not stain their leadership reputation’s white apparel bequeathed by Awolowo. This will necessitate that they disclaim some Yoruba who have consistently licked the spittle of Aso Rock, all in the name of clapping-on an obvious failure of a child whose waist we adorn with beads not deserved. The Yoruba case in Nigerian leadership is synonymous with the narrative of a head hunter (Oluode) who was caught mourning his hunting dog killed by a tiger. Asked why he mourned, Oluode told them that a valiant tree does not ooze out cowardly secretions (ako igi kìì s’oje) and that what he mourned was his reputation that was at stake. How would the world reconcile itself to the story of a brave hunter’s dog killed by a mere tiger? It was the hunter who was literally killed!

The other explanation Yoruba could give is that what Nigeria has today isn’t the original, certainly nothing of the variant of Awolowo, Bola Ige or any of their leaders’ original copy of leadership. The owners of that original have gone with their slough. It reminds me, again, of one of the hunter-animal liaisons and contests for primacy narratives in Adeduntan’s book. Another hunter, Kìlání Alápó of Alápó village, Ibadan, tells it perfectly. For eight years, Alápó had killed a python under an àràbà tree in a forest called Ẹléṛè.̣ However, in the ninth year of harvesting the python, the snake was nowhere to be found under the àràbà. In its stead, he found the skin of a deer (awo ̣̣ ìgalà). Alápó however went home with his strange find, the àwọ̀. Apprehensive about the slough he kept and its probable consequences, he inquired of a Babalawo who warned him not to destroy it as its owner would someday ask for it (aláwò ̣ ó ̣ wàá bééré áwó). Seven days after, a pretty lady walked into Alápó village, demanding Kìlání Alápó’s home. Seeing this woman, dogs began to bark mysteriously. Adeduntan explained this as the capacity of dogs to “see the numinous.” On meeting Alápó, the woman promptly demanded, “could you please return my slough?” (Ẹ dákun, àwò ̣ mi t’éẹ̣ kó, mọ fé ̣ k’éẹ̣ kó o fún mi). The hunter walked in and handed her the skin. According to the narration, for fifteen years, Alápó consistently killed a deer under the àràbà tree.

Yoruba are in a dilemma. They have an impostor child who, unfortunately, hails from their home of noble leadership pedigree and honour. Like relished epaulettes, the honour of excellence in leadership and administration is what the Yoruba still cling on today. In the same way the python-woman walked back to Kìlání Alápó to demand what rightly belonged to her, the race must demand its àwọ̀ from the impostor.

Good night, Omodewu

On Thursday last week, in Ibadan, Oyo State, I was at the wake and tributes service in honour of Isaac Ajiboye Omodewu, the All Progressives Congress (APC) Oyo State Chairman. The news of his passage on August 18, 2024, in New York, USA hit his home state almost immediately it occurred. It was like a thunderbolt, a blow to many who knew his dove-like character. It was a moment to cower at the feet of the invisible hand of death that plucked a friend, a gentleman personified. Omodewu was laid to rest the second day in his Otu town.

In the events hall where the service took place, you could feel Omodewu’s gentle voice and coy, harmless look. He almost couldn’t hurt a fly. In life, Omodewu was a dependable ally who sought out the comfort of his friends. Until you read about his pedigree, having come out of a home of politicians, Omodewu didn’t strike you as a politician, with all the combativeness and duplicity of politics. I could understand Omodewu’s service as a government appointee but it took a long time for me to connect with his subsequent and unfortunately, last political career path when he became the Oyo State APC Party Chairman. Those who witnessed him in action as party chairman pointed to a leadership he ran marked by unity and consensus-building.

I knew Omodewu in 2011 while we both served under late Governor Abiola Ajimobi. From the way he wove his “been to” status into his utterances, you knew immediately he was one of the Oyo State indigenes who came from abroad to participate in politics. It was later I learnt that he schooled at the City University of New York, USA. He subsequently served as commissioner for local government and thereafter, lands. He was humble and self-effacing.

One thing that I often remember about him was how he, at close to 60 years of age, chose to study law. When he began the course of study at the Lead City University in Ibadan, he told me bluntly that, looking at my example, he was encouraged to go back to school. We also spoke frequently when he was about to go to the Nigerian Law School, which culminated in his being called to the Nigerian Bar in 2023.

Omodewu’s passage tells all of us that death is a bus stop where all of us would alight someday. That gentleman has alighted by his own bus stop. Sleep well, brother.

At the just concluded 65th annual conference of the Nigerian Economic Society (NES) in Abuja, one of the highlights of the annual ritual was the conferment of the 2024 Distinguished Economic Service Award on seven eminent Nigerians. And yours sincerely is one of the awardees. This is one award that holds a fundamental significance among all the other ones I have been conferred with. And the singular reason is that this conferment articulates a significant plank in my institutional and governance reforms campaign in Nigeria. That plank insists that there is an intellectual component in the imperative of institutional reform that demands a collaborative engagement between professionals and academics/intellectual. This is because a crucial part of the diagnosis of reform failure in Nigeria is the failure to understand that reform itself has an intellectual and theoretical basis that many reformers are not aware of. We deride theories as if they have no practical import. There is no one engaging with Nigeria and her development dynamics that would not get involved in conversation with economics and economists. This is why associations like NES and the National Economic Summit Group (NESG) are critical to the understanding of Nigeria’s governance and economic predicaments, and how we can find a way or ways out of the woods.

I deeply appreciate Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, president of NES and the entire governing council for this unquantifiable honor. It is an honor I would never have expected, but one I am delighted about so much. That my essentially basic understanding of the economic and developmental component of institutional reform is noticed by an erudite association is no mean feat. My reflection on this critical award therefore enables me to connect my conversations and collaborations with economists and economic discourses with my institutional reform agenda. And all these come together around the trajectory of the mentoring experience I had with the late Prof. Ojetunji Aboyade, great economist, erudite scholar and president of the NES from 1973 to 1974, and indeed my townsman and a singular influence on my professional and intellectual maturation. Those who understand my relationship with Aboyade—the fact that I literally grew up in his formidable but mentoring shadows at Aáwé and in the presidency—would immediately understand why I had no choice in my reverence for economists.

Under the tutelage of Aboyade, my entry point into the public administration scholarship was through public policy implementation research, which had the likes of Jeffrey Pressman and Aaron Wildavsky as the key pioneers. Their groundbreaking 1973 book, Implementation, grounds implementation studies as a subfield of public policy research. Indeed, from that book, I began to notice early in time the role that politics and policymaking play in facilitating a near-seamless implementation process in administrative reforms. Most significantly, the authors insisted that the evaluation of policies and their implementation are two different issues that must not be conflated. As a young researcher, I immediately saw the sense in seeing implementation, according to Pressman and Wildavsky, as “the ability to forge subsequent links in the causal chains so as to obtain the desired results.” Hence, once this causal chain involved in implementation is longer necessary, the more complex the implementation becomes. Or, in the case of Nigeria—as I would eventually see, the longer the implementation chain, the more definite it becomes that bad politics has intervened.

With this as my starting point, it was not too long for me to make a research entry into the discursive space of institutional economics, and the relationship between institutions and the capacities they generate in economic actors that lead to innovation, performance and productivity. The theoretical relationship and disagreements between the old and new institutionalism, especially on the compatibility of individual agency and social structure eventually would play a deep role in articulating the emergence of the managerial revolution that backstopped the new public management (NPM) movement around which the global public administration praxis was designed. The NPM is the managerial attempt to unseat the bureaucratic stasis that has kept the Weberian system ineffective, inefficient and unproductive. Indeed, within the Nigerian administrative context, it has made it quite difficult to birth a developmental state.

The idea of the developmental state clearly serves as the focal point for an ongoing conversation between economists and institutional reformers. The idea of the developmental state tasks the public service system on the need to achieve the efficiency that will operationalize democratic governance to deliver infrastructural development for the citizens. Thus, to achieve economic development, such a state must first be oriented towards institutional reforms that bring the structures and institutions to capability readiness.

From the vantage point of my research into institutional reforms and development policy management, it was so easy but unnerving to work out the historical trajectory as well as the administrative dynamics that facilitated the series of aborted transitions, policy somersaults, the conception-reality gap, the motion-without-movement development hiccups that translate into protracted state and governance failures in Nigeria. And we see the basis of these failures in the (non)performance of the Nigerian economy and the debilitating effects on Nigerians. It therefore should come as no surprise that the role of economists in the Nigerian predicament became all the more heightened. This is where I think my experience as the directing staff coordinating the public policy executive education component of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) remit for three years was so professionally fulfilling. That professional status brought me close to the economic and policy sides of understanding the Nigerian predicament as well as the connection with my expertise in institutional reform. I had the opportunity to facilitate at once policy conversations and discourses around critical issues of the fundamentals of public policy, the public policy design and formulation process, policy implementation and decision science, policy evaluation and tracking, the political undercurrent of policy decision-making, as well as policy exploration and scenario projection that factor the VUCA (vulnerable, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) administrative environment into the urgency of building a twenty-first-century policy architecture that the Nigerian state requires to achieve democratic service delivery.

All the above therefore makes the theme of the NES 65th annual conference—“Socio-Economic Development in Nigeria: Imperatives, Implications and Impacts”—all the more fundamental given the present state of the Nigerian economic change management challenges. The conference theme is ready-made as the instigating forum that could have served some brainstorming and learning context for the PBAT governance and economic teams. It was especially a grand tutorial for me as a member of that team in terms of the analyses, forecasting and incisive critiques around the implementation possibilities and prospects of delivering the Renewed Hope Agenda from the perspectives of Nigerian economists. There are two crucial takeovers that my attendance at the NES Conference brought out into very stark relief.

One, it has now become imperative that government needs an ongoing and consummate engagement with Nigerian experienced economists and other intellectuals and experts. This becomes critical, especially with regard to the near absence of a political economy framework that could have served as the analytical and technical perspectives for articulating and sequencing the two major policies of the federal government, namely, the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira. While these two policies have a sound basis, they are flawed in terms of change management detailing and technical correctness, and their disruptive consequences could have been averted with the benefit of deep economic intelligence and the possible analytical frameworks and policy instruments that competent policy analysis could have been provided for risk analysis, mitigation and management. Here, we already begin to see how the implementation chain—and the possibility of success—is already compromised. Policy implementation and impact cannot just be the result of just policy correctness. On the contrary, it must reflect a dynamic and holistic and not a partial understanding of Nigeria’s economic structure and predicaments.

Two, we have to deal with the critical disjuncture that is playing out between the Renewed Hope Agenda and the policy implementation detailing of the government. We cannot ever hope to make that agenda work if the policies that would empower it are out of joint in terms of implementation sequence. The implementation of policies raises the crucial issue of those for whom the policies are meant in the first place. Thus, if, as democratic governance demands, these policies are meant to be people-oriented, then it implies that the change management strategy must be fashioned in a way that puts the people at the centre without necessarily yielding to unreflective populism. For example, to achieve a reasonable buy-in by Nigerians, the change vision and objectives must embed much more inclusive instruments which are however strategically communicated to Nigerians.

While receiving the award, it dawned on me that I have been drawn into the circle of a wider reform cohort that would further challenge my understanding of what it takes to articulate, track and evaluate institutional reforms in Nigeria. I am very glad for this incorporation, and the opportunity it affords me to sharpen my learning capacity and keep the discussion on the future of the Nigerian state in the right direction.

Olaopa, a Professor of Public Administration, is the Chairman, Federal Civil Service Commission, Abuja

It seems the contrived, ill-advised controversy over the ‘ownership’ of Lagos will not go away anytime soon as more and more agent provocateurs are deployed on the worldwide web to drive a wedge between the historically liberal aborigines of Lagos and non-Yoruba residents of the mega city. That development is an unkind payback to the aborigines who are, by nature, one of the most liberal people on the surface of the earth.

There are Lagosians and there are Lagosians. Some Lagosians are aborigines, some are Lagosians by birth and acculturation, while some are just residents of Lagos. Don’t confuse one with the other. When you encounter a Lagosian of any hue, his comportment will tell you where he belongs in the classification above, even if we agree to call all of them Lagosians. There is a marked difference between an ‘Omo Eko’ (the Lagosian) and an ‘Ara Eko’ (the migrant resident).

Lagos is like a lagoon. It tolerates any kind of filth but also harbours some choice marine life. In line with its Yoruba linguistic and cultural heritage, its Oríkì says it all: It is the city of wisdom, ready to bend and contort but not break. Who’s contending with Lagos? If you go to Lagos and don’t end up wiser, throw in the towel – you’re unteachable! Lagos, where the man on stilts runs faster than the prized athlete. City of aquatic splendour, solid in the knowledge that if its marshes are not denuded, neither will Lagos. Eko will prevail!

Half-Lagosian
I am as proud of my half-Lagosian maternal heritage as I am of my father’s Oyo ancestry. Growing up in the melting pot that Lagos was, one couldn’t avoid noticing that the temperament of the average Lagosian was founded on the principle of live and let live. Before the early colonial days, Yoruba people from other parts of today’s southwest had been migrating to Lagos in such numbers that the local chiefs and kings gave them large parcels of land to settle. That’s how you have names like Abule Egba (village of the Egbas of Abeokuta) Ijeshatedo, (named after ethnic Ijeshas from today’s Osun State).

Lagos means “lakes” in Portuguese, the language of the first Europeans to arrive at the land already inhabited by the Awori who are a sub-ethnic group of the Yoruba people. By the early 19th Century, it was a small kingdom and a tributary to the Oyo Empire. It sent embassies to the Portuguese colony of Brazil, and became one of the first countries to recognise the independence of Brazil in 1823. With the collapse of the Oyo Empire, Lagos assumed the leading economic position regionally, becoming the most important market in the Yoruba territories as well as growing substantially.

The truth is that Lagos, over the years, has emerged as a forward-looking Yoruba city which opens its hands wide to welcome all manner of people.

Contrary to what obtains in most parts of Nigeria, Lagosians don’t discriminate against non-indigenes. That is why, from time immemorial, they allowed outsiders to acquire properties and settle down. They are so self-assured that they don’t feel threatened by the prosperity of migrants who choose to make the place home.

Tolerance
A visit to Ajegunle will show the extent of the tolerance of aboriginal Lagos people. There, you’d see Ijaws, Ilajes, Uhrobos, Itsekiris, Igbos, Etsakos, Ikas and other micro-nationals who are, to all intents and purposes, now Lagosians. Musician Daddy Shokey, whose forebears hailed from Olomoro Kingdom in Isoko South LGA of Delta State, is an Ajegunle Boy and is celebrated by Lagosians as one of their own. He has earned his stripes.

In terms of jobs, I wager that there is no other state in Nigeria with the number of non-indigenes that Lagos employs. And their promotion and retirement prospects are the same with the locals. Contrast this with what obtains in some parts of the country where non-indigenes are employed only by contract, never on a permanent or pensionable basis, and are not allowed to own landed properties.
I think what has fuelled the fire of the current rancour is the renewed drive to abuse the tolerance of Lagos aborigines after the last elections and the “Oro” festival that accompanied it. Last week witnessed the wide distribution of a podcast claiming that Lagos was a No-Man’s-Land. According to the misguided fellow, all Yoruba towns were founded by Igbos. He went on to stand history on its head, making one wonder why we haven’t restored history to its pride of place in our schools from primary to university level.

Lagosians have refused to tolerate the reinvented insults to their heritage and some of the most unlikely, otherwise taciturn, indigenes have publicly intervened to call the migrant cyberwarriors to order.

Conspiracy Theory
It is quite possible, as some have argued (considering the irrationality of the podcast and other such irritants), that there is an orchestrated attempt to smash the cordiality existing between the indigenes of Lagos and Igbos who, together with other micro-national groups, have contributed positively to the development of the megacity.

Could there be an agenda to set up the Igbos for extermination when the doomsday predicted by Igbophobes finally arrives? If there is, it won’t be the first time such a thing was used to demonise a people and set them up for extermination as happened in the run-up to the Rwandan massacre.
A visit to the genocide museum in Rwanda convinced me that any kind of ethnic phobia built on ultra micro-nationalism is bound to lead to mass depopulation. I had never seen so many human skeletons (and the last clothes worn by the butchered victims) under one roof!

The Other Side
Those propounding the theory of a possible setup of Igbos for mass attack are countered by others who argue that the Igbos are their own worst enemies because their style is grating, chauvinistic and pompous. They also point to the anti-Yoruba, anti-Fulani, anti-Nigeria broadcasts of IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu and his acolyte, Simon Ekpa. But would that be sufficient reason to target them for destruction?
They wonder why it is only Igbos who complain of harassment when they are not the only set of non-indigenes living in Lagos. They insist that latter day arrivals among the Igbos are the ones fuelling the problem because they are not acculturated, bringing their gruff attitudes to a cosmopolitan setting. They don’t want Igbos to be chased out of their land; rather they want them to imbibe the Lagos spirit. Whichever way you look at it, you’ve got to salute the generosity of the Lagos aborigine.

As I straddle both sides of the divide, I often wonder what the political elite are doing about these kinds of development. These are the issues that ought to engage the attention of the major socio-cultural groups. Igbos need Lagos as much as Lagos needs everybody, thanks to its magnanimous spirit.
The renewed brickbat over the ownership of Lagos is dangerous because if the aborigines of Lagos (the most welcoming, most expansive, most cosmopolitan people in southwest Nigeria) decide to move against the interests of any single group in Lagos, the sight won’t be pretty at all — and the fount of amity existing between that group and the aborigines of Lagos would have been poisoned for all time.

Erling Haaland’s double sent Manchester City three points clear at the top of the Premier League in a 2-1 win over Brentford.

City took full advantage of Liverpool’s defeat to move clear at the top by stretching their 100 per cent record to four games despite a disastrous start.

However, Haaland’s form at the start of the season remains unstoppable, even if the Norwegian just missed out on a record third consecutive hat-trick in the Premier League.

The 24-year-old’s powerful deflected effort brought City level before he showed a combination of strength and skill to shrug off Ethan Pinnock and dink the ball over the onrushing Mark Flekken.

Only the post denied Haaland another hat-trick after half-time but he now has a Premier League record nine goals in the first four games of the season.

“He’s just an absolute machine in front of goal and I can’t speak highly enough of him,” said City’s Jack Grealish of Haaland, who had been doubtful due to the death this week of a close family friend.

“It does speak volumes about him as a person and his mental strength.”

[DailyTrust]

“I am beginning to wonder how many fools it takes to make the term ‘My Fellow Citizens’” -Honore de Balzac, 1799-1850, in LOST ILLUSIONS

You were probably one of those who eagerly awaited the completion of the Dangote Refinery while labouring under the illusion that it will crash the price of fuel nationwide. Welcome to the unpleasant reality. Underlying that self-deception was the un-stated but implied assumption that Alhaji Dangote was embarking on a venture designed to free Nigeria from fuel importation. Well, “when you assume, you make an ass of you and me.”

Gullible Nigerians, especially many media commentators, had committed the blunder of forgetting that Dangote is a businessman caught in a global race for position among the world’s richest people. He went into refinery primarily to make as much money as he can; and stopping fuel importation is a distant second objective – except that securing a monopoly of the domestic fuel supply would help achieve the ambition.

When the first batch of Dangote petrol hits the filling stations, it will carry an official price tag of N890+/litre – the highest in history and the end is not in sight for pricing.  Additionally, the fuel will arrive with another quality controversy in tow. Never in the history of Nigeria has colourless petrol been offered for sale – until now. The same thing happened with the diesel on offer from the refinery. Dangote and some of his admirers argue that the colourless product is better than anything else. I beg to disagree.

A COUP AGAINST THE PEOPLE – COLA CATASTROPHE INEVITABLE

“How can we rationalise a situation where doctors who earn an average of $300 per month, are expected to cope with such astronomical increases in the cost of living? The recent hike in PMS prices has worsened an already unsustainable economic reality for healthcare professionals and all Nigerians, making it nearly impossible for them to manage” – Saheed Kehinde, Chairman, Nigerian Medical Association, Lagos Branch.

Doctors and their COLA – cost of living allowance – are very crucial; definitely.

If doctors cry out, what would drivers do? The worst part of the entire calamity is still to come for several reasons. But, some issues will serve to illustrate our national predicament. It is simply terrifying. Our lives have been changed forever; unfortunately not for the better for most Nigerians. 

First, Mr Adedapo Segun, the Executive Vice President of Downstream NNPCL, told Nigerians, on television, on September 5, 2024: “The market has been deregulated, meaning that petrol prices are now determined by market forces rather than by the government or NNPC Ltd. Additionally, the exchange rate plays a significant role in influencing those prices.” If that does not open the eyes of those who had been touting the Dangote Refinery as our saviour from high fuel prices, nothing will. However, just in case more is needed to open the eyes of those self-blinded, there is more bad news.

“Further hike looms as NNPC says N897/litre not market reflective” – Report.

For those individuals and groups –NBA, PDP, CNG, Reps Minority caucus and YCE – shedding tears and requesting for price roll back, there is only one advice: Stop shedding tears now; you might need to shed blood later. The Yoruba Council of Elders, YCE, in particular, sounded hypocritical. Tinubu is their President; they voted massively for him. They have a right to talk; but, nobody can take them seriously. This is the direct consequence of their votes!!! From my own projections, market-determined prices will end up ranging from N1, 100-1, 230/litre ultimately. The consequences of that eventuality will be explained later in another article.

DANGOTE VERSUS NNPCL REFINERIES

“Against [official] stupidity, the gods themselves labour in vain” – Frederick von Schiller, 1759-1805, VBQ p 235, available online.

The approval of Dangote’s brand of petrol, when combined with NNPCL’s role as the initial sole distributor of the first colourless petrol offered for sale in Nigeria, has opened several issues for public debate. To begin with, NNPCL’s four refineries, if ever they produce petrol, will distribute conventional yellow coloured fuel. The two types of petrol conform to standards approved in different parts of the world. The claim that Dangote’s fuel meets American specifications constitutes partial information and defence of the brand.

Every car manufacturer selling cars in the US builds engines that meet American specifications – V6, V8 and even V12. Americans generally love big cars. Europeans and Asian manufacturers favour smaller cars – V4 and V6 – but seldom anything bigger. The fuel specifications are consequently different. Because almost all the cars on Nigerian roads are made in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly now China, the fuel specification has not changed for decades. The attempt to bring ‘super petrol’ to Nigeria in the 1970s resulted in massive failure; and it was eventually abandoned.

Nigeria’s refineries will produce conventional petrol; not white petrol. Nigeria will then become the first country on the globe offering two different types of petrol for consumption. That raises a fundamental technical question; which neither Dangote nor NNPCL has bothered to address. Can the two types of petrol be mixed in the same tanks – cars, generators etc — without problems for users? Even the villager can understand the implications of that question.

Obviously, if for some technical reasons, the two brands of petrol are not safely mixable, Nigerian consumers are being exposed to great risks with regard to their investments in generators and cars. The risks are considerable; given the fact that for most low income people, a generator is probably their biggest investment; while for the Middle Class, the family car is the largest investment. Damage those two items and the economic calamity would be incalculable.

In a better governed society, the NNPCL and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources should have answered that question before Dangote’s fuel is released. They should have mixed the two to determine if they are safely mixable and then run the mixture in several cars to test the performance of the mixture in cars and generators.

It is only because we are Nigerians, who frequently refuse to learn from history, that most people in my generation have forgotten the damages super octane petrol did to the small engines of Volkswagen Beetles and other mini cars. What sort of people are we; that we accept fundamental and risky shifts in our lives without finding out if the change would be beneficial? Was it not a mere ten years ago, when we succumbed to the fraudulent noise of CHANGE? How many of us would not be too happy to return to the way we were then?

COLOURLESS PETROL

“Not all changes are for the better.” That was the verdict of a sage who lived about three hundred years ago. Buhari’s and APC’s eight years in government have proved that to us. Colourless petrol might turn out to be indeed better than conventional fuel; but, mixing it with other types of petrol might turn out to be problematic. Colour-coding products that are similar, but different, have been an age-long method in industries for avoiding horrible mistakes. Hydrochloric and sulphuric acids are almost colourless, but, they produce different results. We learnt that from the tragedy of cough syrup killing kids. Colourless petrol might be susceptible to mixture with water or any other colourless chemical. The results could be fatal.

ARE WE NOT OVERATING EDUCATION?

“However, in Nigeria, high illiteracy levels have created a populace that cannot effectively participate in the process leading to good governance” – Dakuku Peterside, VANGUARD, September 3, 2024.

VANGUARD is read more thoroughly than any of the five other papers to which I subscribe everyday – irrespective of whether I agree with the writers or not. Dakuku Peterside is one of my favourites. I was reading his article of September 3, 2024 and this assertion hit me like a sudden slap in the face. Dakuku made a statement which most of us had taken as self-evident. Suddenly, it occurred to me that we might all be wrong; or at least partly wrong.

Education without character or moral courage produces a lot of monstrous situations globally. China, Russia, Cuba, and North Korea have some of the highest literacy rates in the world. But, to me, they are nations of well-educated cattle being driven by sole dictators. Three have the resources to create great economies; but, Cuba is a sad place. It is a poor nation perpetually enslaved.

Back home, Nigeria is more badly governed today with millions of graduates than in 1959 when the number of university graduates could not be up to 1, 000.

Today’s leaders – Presidents and Governors – as well as their appointees are uniformly better educated than those who served with Ahmadu Bello, Awolowo and Azikiwe. Nigeria was growing steadily under the three Premiers and the Prime Minister. Nigeria, since 2014, has experienced negative growth; and we are worse governed than in 1959. Of what use is the education without character? That is a missing ingredient inhibiting our efforts at nation-building.

A brief look at the total number of voters that elect political office holders in Nigeria would easily reveal a rather negligible figure. Many factors account for this. First, the voter turn-out which is always exceedingly low is further abridged by the large number of spoilt ballot papers defaced by many people who do not really know how to vote. Another causative factor is political apathy which refers to general lack of interest in politics.

At the same time, some voters are largely discouraged by the long distances between their homes and the nearest voting centres to them as well as the rigidity of the electoral process which restricts voting to only the centre where every voter was registered. Although all the factors responsible for low turn-out are probably too many to be listed here, the one that may probably never improve is political violence which scares many people away from the voting centres.

In the case of the 2024 Edo governorship contest which is just about a week away, it is likely that many voters may not come out to vote because of the terrifying disposition of politicians especially members of the two major parties- the APC and the PDP. The level of aggression portrayed by some of them in the last few weeks has never been this dreadful since 1999. It all started with pure denigration which this column a few weeks back described as pedestrian electioneering campaigns akin to the activities of local heroes of the first republic who took delight in using their privileged positions to put their opponents under house arrest just before voting day.

Today’s politicians are employing not only the use of political thugs to harass opponents but are also embracing every malaise that decent societies would generally not encourage around elections which ought to produce visionary leaders for the benefit of society. The nearer the Edo contest, the more the politicians issued threats against one another thereby inadvertently imposing on the sub consciousness of every peaceful and unarmed voter to choose between coming out to vote and his life.

In truth, those threatening each other are not joking because in Edo and perhaps in many other states, the reality which we ought to reiterate is that governorship election is not a game, but a war in which all is well that ends well including the elimination of opponents. At the peak of the battle, history tells us that even the governor may serve as the warlord of his army – another word for party during Nigerian elections.

In 2012 for example, a mere rumour that some secret voters’ registration was holding in a particular location was enough to provoke massive protests all day in Benin City, the state capital in which at least one life was lost. No one bothered to interrogate INEC on the rumour; instead, followers of the ruling party were suddenly mobilized to troop out behind the then governor Adams Oshiomhole to protest what turned out to be untrue. When asked by the media if it was right for him as a governor to lead a protest, Oshiomhole said: “I will conduct my office according to my own style. I have a mass background; these are the qualities that brought me to this office including mass protest.”

At the point of the protest in question, the current governor, Godwin Obaseki was Oshiomhole’s best man and political disciple which aptly explains why the on-going electoral feud must be stopped before it is too late. Those who are in doubt as to whether evil days are ahead need to listen to a number of sources such as the Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room which has since recorded 19 major incidents of preelection violence.

One of them concerns the July 18, 2024 attack on Monday Okpebholo, the governorship candidate of the APC in which a police inspector was killed. The APC is convinced that the attack was masterminded by PDP leaders that they insist must be brought to book using their own federal might as the nation’s ruling party. Another credible evidence that there is trouble is an advisory from the Oba of Benin’s palace directing all traditional chiefs and elders to perform the traditional ‘Bisusu’ ceremony to ward off evil ahead of the coming governorship election. Our Oba does not speak in vain.

Those who imagined that respected elders of the national peace committee led by former Head of State, General Abdulsalam Abubakar would be able to put a halt to the volatile situation were shocked to see that the politicians were more vociferous during the peace agreement signing week. The PDP which is the ruling party in the state has already declined to sign the agreement suggesting that it is unreasonable to pretend that peace is attainable when the playing field is not level.

The party says it will only sign the peace agreement when among other things, some of its chieftains who have been detained in Abuja without trial for whatever offences allegedly committed are released. Although the Edo State commissioner of police, Nemi Edwin-Iwo has promised that the police are neutral and would remain so, the message being sent to the ordinary citizen by body language that Edo based suspects are arrested not by Edo based police but by Abuja based police is that the fight ahead would be fierce. Are we sure the police should not also sign the peace accord?

There is also the issue of whether INEC as presently constituted can really be neutral in the coming election. To start with, some politicians are calling for the removal of Anugbum Onuoha, the Resident Electoral Commissioner, REC, deployed to Edo State. They say Onuoha is a relation of the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike and that the latter who is believed to be a great adversary of Governor Obaseki may be used against the PDP.

The call is no doubt unreasonable because if it is followed,how easy will it be to find a REC who is no one’s relation? A more serious issue however is the allegation that Onuoha is one of the electoral commissioners that ought not to have been appointed because he has been known to be partisan – a point which the Nigerian constitution forbids. Indeed, we do not even need a law to avoid appointing members of the ruling party into an independent electoral body. How can the referee of a game be one of the players of one of the teams in a match?

It will be recalled that when the last set of nominations were made for appointment into INEC as electoral commissioners, well-meaning Nigerians including civil society groups and the media pleaded fervently for the exclusion of those with political affiliations. But as usual, the pleas were ignored; indeed, the senate cleared such persons without looking into the allegations and without considering the impact their appointments would make on the political system.

If there is tension in Edo State now, we cannot claim to be unaware of when the seeds were sown. The pain the rest of us have is that if the PDP finds an opportunity to return to power someday, it would waste no time in repeating the same conduct it is deprecating now meaning that Nigerian politicians are never desirous of free and fair elections, they only mouth the attributes.

Politicians probably do not care what happens to society but analysts have a duty to posterity to record the numerous negative activities of political actors which mar elections in the country. The same smartness going on now in Edo State has largely followed how the people of Anambra State ended up having only 10 percent of their voters electing the governor of their state. Other citizens were either disenfranchised, beaten up or manipulated to produce a people’s governor by an insignificant minority. 

This should be discouraged. As Yiaga Africa, a frontline international election monitors suggested recently, Edo politicians need to reduce the current high political tension in their state. Accordingly, all well-meaning Edo citizens should realize that they still have a tiny window to appeal to political actors to let reason prevail, to allow for a free and fair election, to let the votes of the people count and to allow the best candidate come to power to develop Edo State for the benefit of all. 

Recently, Olufemi Soneye, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of the NNPC Limited, utilised his “right-of-reply” privilege to debunk the assertions made by Dr. Muiz Banire, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), when he described NNPCL as the “black hole of Nigeria” in his opinion piece.

To the best of my knowledge, Dr. Banire is not the only person who is concerned about the state of affairs in Nigeria’s oil industry. Several public affairs commentators and concerned Nigerians as well as stakeholders have used the radio, television, newspapers (print and online) and the social media to express their views, either for or against NNPCL – a fully-owned government oil company. When is NNPCL – the big elephant in the room – going public?

I understand Soneye’s difficult position as spokesperson of NNPCL, but I’m sure many Nigerians are not swayed or convinced by his explanation. He tried to paint a picture of what is going on at NNPCL, especially on issues relating to petrol scarcity – that has become a way of life for us – and failed attempts to remove subsidy payments in the past.

However, it is wrong and superfluous to even suggest that those who criticise NNPCL are “intentionally mischievous” or “standing facts on their heads” or “want to be in the good books of the public.” Maybe Soneye doesn’t even know that the public image of NNPCL is in tatters – that is if there’s still any semblance of any public image left, apart from the bright colours of its logo which was launched with so much fanfare with billions of naira in a major rebranding effort two years ago – and no matter how he tries to spin the NNPCL story, it will always be a hard sell.

I do not envy Soneye, but he has a job to do. A very difficult job indeed. This is the same oil company that initially denied that they were owing suppliers when the story first broke. There was really no point being economical with the truth in the first place. But as it turned out, NNPCL admitted in a statement that they were facing “financial constraints,” and indeed petroleum products suppliers were being owed about $6.8 billion because it pays to import these products rather than making our refineries work.

This debt burden – amongst others – is responsible for the long and winding queues at petrol stations, where productive man-hours are lost with the resulting negative effect on our economy. After lying shamelessly, NNPCL should apologise to Nigerians for their bad behaviour.

So who is responsible for the perennial fuel scarcity? Who was also responsible for importing bad petrol that damaged our vehicles and generators two years ago? Were there any sanctions or consequential management?

Soneye can commission a perception audit on NNPCL and tell the whole world the findings. I’m not too sure he would fancy the report. He reacted to the views of Dr. Banire and Pat Utomi, a professor political economy, because he could not ignore them, knowing fully well that they have “strong” voices in the court of public opinion, in addition to their stature in the society as public intellectuals and thought leaders.

Soneye cannot, in good conscience, say that these two gentlemen don’t know what they are saying. NNPCL cannot rule out more “vitriolic attacks” as the days go by; that would be mere wishful thinking when everyone is concerned about energy security. NNPCL is the one holding the keys and padlock to our oil quarters.

I don’t know whether Soneye was expecting The Punchto shower praises on NNPCL or garland the oil operator with medals of extraordinary achievements in the newspaper’s editorial. Wouldn’t that be rather farfetched? Does he truly understand the heritage and editorial policy of the newspaper that is over 50 years old?

The story of NNPCL will fill a book, and it could be a best-seller, depending on who the author is. Whether NNPCL is a “cesspool of corruption” or a “danger” to Nigeria, Soneye should understand that Nigerians are tired of the shenanigans, and lack of transparency and accountability of the fuel provider of last resort.

Shortly before former President Olusegun Obasanjo left office in 2007, he wanted a cure for a nagging migraine that had refused to go away. The migraine was diagnosed as Nigeria’s four moribund refineries. According to Obasanjo, he invited Shell Petroleum to run the refineries, even with the offer of an equity stake, but the oil giant refused, citing reasons that included massive corruption in the oil industry.

Obasanjo’s nagging migraine increased, but he could not believe his luck when Alhaji Aliko Dangote and Mr. Femi Otedola, two prominent billionaires, set up Blue Star Consortium to acquire stakes in the Port Harcourt and Kaduna Refineries – 51 percent for Dangote and 21 percent for Otedola. They were ready to “change the game and transform Nigeria’s energy landscape” for an investment of $750 million in both refineries.

The deal was made on Obasanjo’s watch only for it to be reversed by his successor, late Umaru Yar’Adua, in an “utterly obnoxious” manner as Otedola described it.

When Obasanjo learnt of the reversal, he went to ask Yar’Adua – who was now President at the time – why he took the decision, thereby frustrating the vision of Dangote and Otedola. Yar’Adua told Obasanjo that the henchmen at NNPC and other vested interests assured him that they would fix the refineries. We are now in 2024. Are the refineries working? That assurance given 17 years ago entered a mysterious voicemail.

In a viral video, the late Chief M.K.O Abiola who was the presumed winner of the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election, said that he would demystify the “layers of mystery” around NNPC by making it more transparent and accountable after being sworn into office. Abiola promised to publish the price of daily sale of Nigeria’s crude oil, but he died under mysterious circumstances as he fought to reclaim his mandate. That was 31 years ago.

The testimonies of Obasanjo and Abiola are just two examples that underscore the urgent need to lift the veil of opaqueness surrounding NNPCL. At a time Nigerians are struggling to survive, another layer of hardship was added – Nigerians in search of petrol sleep at filling stations because NNPCL cannot guarantee energy security.

The Guardian Weekend of September 7 – 8, 2024 did an excellent reporting on NNPCL. According to the newspaper, after spending about $3 billion on Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) on Nigeria’s four refineries in the last three years, NNPCL has not been able to give Nigerians one drop of petrol, yet there are huge salary bills and employee benefits paid every year running into billions of naira. The failure of NNPC and now NNPCL, it must be stated for the umpteenth time, is rooted in allegations of mind-boggling corruption, poor corporate governance and political interferences.

There are two refineries in Port Harcourt, one in Warri, and one in Kaduna. It was the 61-year-old Port Harcourt refinery that received approval of $1.5 billion in 2021 for total rehabilitation. The Warri refinery is 46 years old while the Kaduna refinery is 44 years old. The Kaduna and Warri refineries also received about $1.5 billion in 2021 after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved the contract awards in August 2021. The four refineries have an installed capacity of 445,000 bpd distributed as follows: Port Harcourt refineries (210,000 bpd); Warri (125,000 bpd), and Kaduna (110,000 bpd).

These refineries are just waste pipes. If you check their record of debts in the 2022 audited statement of the company, the Port Harcourt refineries are owing N806 billon; Warri refinery is indebted to the tune of N597 billion while the Kaduna refinery is owing N487 billion. Even when the refineries were shut down, the losses continued to mount. I’m sure Soneye will agree with me that this is a poor score card by any standard. If NNPCL were a private sector company, the entire management would have been fired a long time ago.

“What’s the future of NNPC refineries?” The Guardian Weekend asked. Is there indeed a future after what we have witnessed in the last 40 years? The newspaper quoted Dr. Muda Yusuf, the chief executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), as follows: “NNPC lacks the capacity to effectively manage critical oil sector assets, including the refineries. The high standards seen in other national oil companies such as Saudi Aramco and Petrobas are missing in NNPC’s operations. Merely injecting more money into the sector will not solve its problems.”

Dr. Yusuf went on to recommend that the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) model be adopted to manage the four refineries. Indeed, talking about solutions, NNPCL shares should be listed on the stock exchange where government control should be diluted to not more than 25 percent.

As of 2021, NNPCL had 7,338 staff. The four moribund refineries spend N68 billion yearly on salaries and over N500 billion on employee benefits in a single year. In 2022, the employee benefits stood at N266.923 billion, but it rose dramatically to N583.797 billion in 2023 – that’s more than double, an increase of about 118 percent, according to the audited statements released last month.

The statement also revealed that the company’s general and administrative expenses increased from N1.704 trillion in 2022 to N2.991 trillion in 2023 – an increase of 70 percent. Is this how they spend our money at NNPCL?

Nigeria is a major oil producer with four refineries, but in nearly 30 years, we have been importing petroleum products that are heavily subsidised. If Nigeria is flat broke today, it is mainly due to the huge subsidy scam and oil theft that are perpetrated by the enemies of Nigeria. Personally, I feel ashamed that we have been unable to manage our oil assets. While monumental oil thefts, subsidy scams and smuggling have posed significant challenges, NNPCL continues to multiply its own problems.

The bulk of our crude committed to forward sales by NNPCL is creating supply challenges to local refineries with our daily oil production at only 1.3 million bpd. Last year alone, over N7 trillion was spent on subsidy payments, and this figure is likely to go higher this year. In six months from January to June, 2024, our petrol import bill is already at N5.8 trillion.

NNPCL is now searching for private firms (Operations and Maintenance (O&M) companies) to operate the Kaduna and Warri refineries. This is like history repeating itself if we recall the Blue Star Consortium story when the sale of both refineries to Dangote and Otedola 17 years ago was reversed. I would be glad if the national oil company is able to sign an O&M deal for the two refineries. By the way, we must thank Dangote Refinery for coming to the rescue of NNPCL after a series of oily twists and turns.

Going forward, NNPCL should turn a new page, and intentionally seek to have a clean break from the past. For example, instead of making unrealistic projections, it is better for the refineries being rehabilitated and revamped to begin operations before any public announcements are made. That approach would be a better public relations strategy.

Soneye, join me and my colleagues as we advocate for a better Nigeria. That is what we are doing under the auspices of Naija Times Journalism Foundation (NTJF), the nonprofit arm of Naija Times, our online newspaper. We are guided by three ideals: building strong institutions, upholding the rule of law and defending the public interest.

We do not have any other country to call our own, except Nigeria. We must therefore join hands in the task of nation-building and make Nigeria, the greenest nation in Africa, realise its full potential.

Braimah is a communications strategist and publisher/editor-in-chief of Naija Times (https://ntm.ng)and Lagos Post (https://lagospost.ng). He can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..