I stumbled on a story in the Nigerian media which says that the National Assembly is planning to consider no fewer than 63 bills for the creation of new universities, polytechnics, colleges of education and monotechnics, and I wondered whether madness has finally descended on Nigeria’s education sector. Nigeria at the moment has about 49 Federal Universities, 59 state universities, Polytechnics - about 40, state-owned universities- 49, and private universities – 76, federal and state-owned colleges of health – 70, private colleges of health – 17, Colleges of Education – 219. So, who wants to add 63 more institutions to this array of moribund, inefficient, poorly governed and perpetually-on-strike-colleges? Every tertiary institution is a creation of the law, there is no doubt about that, but it would amount to gross stupidity for any group of lawmakers to sit and deliberate over the possible creation by law of additional tertiary schools in Nigeria today. The sponsors of such bills should not only withdraw them, they should hide their heads in shame, and must not be heard forthwith making any such silly suggestions.

Many lawmakers want a tertiary institution in their own neck of the woods. They want it said that as part of democracy dividends, it was during their term in office that a school was brought to their village, or community. They are forever desperate to be seen to be doing something that would fetch them another term in office. It is not difficult to see why community projects so called constitute such a big competition among lawmakers. Some lawmakers collude with the traditional rulers of their communities to give chieftaincy titles to their colleagues to support their plans to establish Universities of Medicine in their villages. If established. such universities would be no better than Primary Health Care Centres. Worse, actually. Higher institutions of learning should not be created on the basis of political expediency. No school should be established to massage the ego of politicians.  Tertiary education should not be about quantity, but quality and capacity, not political convenience, but political interest. We do not need to have a university or a polytechnic in every hamlet of Nigeria - that would be a prescription for chaos and confusion.

Today, it would be exactly two weeks since the President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari gave or did not give, the Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu, a two-week ultimatum, to find a solution, to the strike since February 14, 2022, of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU). Some other reports indicated that the Minister himself was the one who volunteered to end the strike because he had found a special formula to the matter. The two weeks is up today, so what has happened? What has happened is that by yesterday, ASUU told everyone that the union is extending the strike by university teachers for another period of four weeks. If ASUU was aware of any progress being made with the negotiations, its communique would have said so, but there was absolutely nothing like that. An academic session is about 9 months. Nigeria’s universities have been shut down for more than six months. A whole academic session has been sacrificed on the altar of nothing. Many students by now would have forgotten whatever they learnt in their other life as undergraduates. Many of the boys and ladies would by now have ended up as fathers and mothers, victims of unwanted pregnancy or adolescent sexuality, due to distraction and idleness, quite a number from privileged homes would have moved on to foreign schools or private universities, a larger majority would simply have dropped out to become a big burden unto society.  When university teachers embarked on their strike in February 2022, it was just them, but they have since been joined by other unions within the education sector. For months, Nigeria’s public education sector has been on its knees. On the plain surface of it, this is not good enough. It is condemnable, because the crisis is avoidable, and speaks to the failure of leadership and governance.

The involved unions - ASUU, SSANU, NASU, ASUP - are asking for better conditions of service and a quality education system in Nigeria. ASUU insists on a number of issues:  fulfilment of the 2009 ASUU-FG agreement, and the re-negotiated agreements of 2014, 2020, and 2022 in line with the sacred principle – pacta sunt servanda – that is the sanctity of agreements. It would appear that the Federal Government of Nigeria does not want to respect any agreements including the latest Nimi Briggs committee proposal.  The Briggs committee is recommending an over 100% increase in salaries and allowances for university teachers. The Minister of Labour and Productivity, Dr. Chris Ngige has been heard saying the government cannot pay such money because there is no money anywhere as Nigeria grapples with a local and global season of economic distress. Well, well, well, it is true that Nigeria’s debt service profile exceeds country revenue by about 119%. Excess crude Account has been depleted.  What do we have there now? Some little change above $300 million. Our foreign exchange situation is so bad, the Naira is beginning to look like toilet paper in comparison to the dollar!  University teachers of Nigeria insist that they do not want the government’s payment system that places them under what is popularly known as IPPIS, they want their own payment system called UTAS. They are asking for revitalization funds for universities. They want the number of universities to be rationalized because they think there are too many universities in the country, resulting in the lowering of standards. They reject the idea that Nigerian students should pay appropriate fees. They think the provision of quality education for the Nigerian child is a sacred duty and anything to the contrary drawn from Western, neo-liberal economics is wrong-headed, human development strategy. There are more than enough hard liners on both sides, however: between those who think government must have its way, and those who think government is manned by stupid persons who have lost the capacity to think intelligently. In that middle are parents whose children have been wrong-footed, a country whose education system is being destroyed and young Nigerians whose future has been mortgaged.

It is perhaps necessary to define the context of this reflection. Once upon a time in this same country, the education system flourished. In 1955, the Western Region led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo and strategic thinkers like Chief Adekunle Ajasin and Professor S. O. Awokoya introduced Universal Free Primary Education System in the Western Region. The policy promoted education in the Western region. By 1957, the Eastern Region led by had also introduced a framework for a similar promotion of education. In 1959, the leaders of Northern Nigeria had their first major summit on education with a clear intention to promote education in the North. The regional system encouraged competition and each region working on its own comparative advantage. The West succeeded with its plan, producing generations of educated persons. The East also succeeded, but the civil war truncated the growth of the East. The East has since recovered pushing forcefully ahead on the competitive plane, after the civil war, a reflection of the people’s resilience, with Igbos now having the highest number of Ph.D holders in Nigeria today. The only region that fell behind is the North where a large number of Nigeria’s out of school children is concentrated and the result has been banditry, terrorism, and illiteracy. My point is that there was a time when every region of Nigeria tried to promote education, learning, and culture, with relative differences. As a primary and secondary school pupil in this country, government gave us books. Some of our schools could easily compare with some of the best schools in England and Europe. Students came to study in this country from other parts of the world. Many of our teachers from primary to university level were expatriates, and they were very happy living and working in Nigeria, with their families.  

I remember this: my secondary school got featured on the then old WNTV because we had one of the best farms in the Western region cultivated by the school under the leadership of Chief Sesan Soluade who later became Deputy Governor under Chief Olabisi Onabanjo as Governor of Ogun State. At the university level, we had access to quality. There was water. There was electricity. Hostel staff laid our beds, washed our bedsheets, and every morning cleaned our rooms. The university cafeteria was a place of delight. The food was good. The menu was heavenly. They fed us to make us study well. We drank tea every morning. Every meal came with tea and dessert. Every Sunday afternoon, we looked forward to the special chicken delicacy that we got served as a special treat. Food was so important to us, and a source of celebration that even our cafeteria had a Chairman who was so appointed and recognized by students! Only the Chairman had the right to arrive whenever he wanted and he would be allowed to go straight to the head of the queue. The Chairman was a true Chairman in any case, because he was always the first person to show up at the cafeteria, morning, noon, and in the evening. The irony was that he was a science student with all their laboratory sessions, but he seemed to have taken his reputation as the cafeteria king as his major mission in the university. Chairman graduated. Mr. Jeun Koku didn’t repeat a class! He graduated on schedule.

In the more uptown universities like the University of Ibadan, we were told that the situation was even better. Those ones wore gowns and some of the boys behaved like they were future lords. Before we graduated, everything collapsed.  The cafeteria system disappeared. Nigeria under Ibrahim Babangida, had taken the IMF pill. The country went downhill and has not recovered since then. By the time I got to Ibadan for graduate studies, I met a culture of “bush attack”. There was no water. No normal environment. Boys and girls took to the bush in early morning hours to empty their bowels. Everywhere stank. Then, they brought undergraduate girls to graduate hostels and hell broke loose. Boys started behaving like girls. I ran for election as Secretary of Awolowo Hall along with others who thought we needed to save our Hall of Residence, and won, but we all ended up being very friendly with the female wing!   It is now so bad that the education system has completely failed. Over 13 million Nigerian children, most of them in the North are out of school. Northern leaders have been holding meetings since 1959 to promote education and enlightenment in the North. They meet every season, every year, every electoral cycle. The number of illiterate children in the North keeps expanding. The situation has been compounded by the menace of Boko Haram, terrorism and the insecurity of lives and property in the North. Religious and ethnic dimensions to the crisis make it more terrible. Not even schools are safe. They have become targets in the hands of those who believe that western education is a sin and that anyone who goes to school must be kidnapped and eliminated.

Given these circumstances, the proposed recklessness of breathing more tertiary institutions into existence through legislation is annoying. Nigeria does not need more tertiary institutions. This is one of the major arguments of ASUU and other unions. I think they are right. Even with the Nimi-Briggs proposition, nothing will change. Has anyone even seen the Briggs paper? What the university teachers want is a quality education system. They do not want the proliferation of mushroom universities that spring up at every corner without the wherewithal to keep them going. The education system is so bad that employers of labour in Nigeria do not even want to employ graduates of Nigerian tertiary institutions. If you must employ them, you would need to set up a training school and this is why perhaps there has been an explosion in training budgets in Nigerian companies. The graduates who come out of Nigerian schools cannot speak English. They do not know the difference between a formal and an informal letter. You should not be surprised if they show up in the office wearing those rags that they call clothes. They behave so badly senior managers are the ones who now have to act in loco parentis. Some of the senior managers are themselves products of a bad era, creating a community of Nigerian managers and their staff who are totally lacking in skills and competence. They pollute the environment.  Even when companies recruit foreign graduates, the ones who studied abroad, it is often difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. Many of those pretty looking ladies and smart boys that you meet in banking halls who speak through their noses have actually never gone anywhere beyond Lekki or Surulere. They have international passports and have had the privilege of getting a visa and probably spent two weeks in downtown Europe, and they would have returned with such strange accents you would think that their grandmother came from Europe.

Nigeria must resolve the crisis in the education sector, starting this time from top to bottom. Having a key percentage of Nigerians in the top educational range sitting at home, doing nothing, and embracing depression, indeed some university lecturers have become petty traders, some of the women I hear, now prepare and sell nkwobi and pepper-soup, is disgraceful to the nation. Ministers of the Federal Republic abusing and threatening university teachers, will not solve the problem.  The Minister of Education has missed the two-week deadline. ASUU and other unions are still on strike. As things stand, our universities may remain shut until after the 2023 general elections.

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Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Chijioke Okoli SAN

Topic: Proposed removal of President Buhari from office by lawmakers

Date: Saturday, July 30, 2022

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I am concerned, but not shocked in any way, that the most prominent reaction to the interview that Arise News conducted last week with the Presidential candidate of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar has been sheer tittle-tattle about location, and format and silly ego games. It is a measure of the confusion in the land, and the failure to focus on ideas and concrete issues. The big problem that we face in this country, six months to the 2023 general election is the obsession with minutiae and the irrelevant. This must be considered a national tragedy considering the challenges before us. Thousands, if not millions of young Nigerians burn hours on the social media/internet abusing persons engaged in productive work, while they idle away in their ignorance and obscurantism. Times like this call for a greater deployment of time and intelligence, because Nigeria indeed, now more than before in the last two decades, stands at the brink of a precipice. But alas, Nigeria is saddled with a growing generation of idlers who think that their lives are enriched by pulling down others. But while these ordinary, eponymously anonymous persons need not detain serious minded persons from forging ahead, it must be noted that the emergent political elite is not in any way better. Its members are worse in terms of intellect, capacity, and character. This forces us to ask that question again: what a country! Or as the sage, Chinua Achebe, put it: “There was a country!”. The race to 2023 is a painful reminder of how the biggest tragedy that has befallen Nigeria is the absence of ideas, the collapse of good reason, and the brazen triumph of mediocrity and selective amnesia.

My concern is this: what is the central election issue as Nigeria prepares for the 2023 general elections? Where is that consensus that propels a nation? It is six months to Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, can anyone put his or her finger on any big issues of direct relevance within the context of the Constitution and the people’s expectations? I will address these same questions anon. But to get an idea of my drift, I would like to draw attention to what is currently going on in Britain. There is a bitter, blue-on-blue acrimonious fight for the seat of the Prime Minister of the UK within the ruling Conservative Party. The battle began with Prime Minister Boris Johnson losing the support and confidence of members of his own party and even if he survived two confidence votes, it eventually became clear that with the party-gate scandal and the abandonment of his government on the grounds of principle by many of his key persons, he had lost the support of his own party. From party-gate to everything else, Boris Johnson was his own assassin. He committed political suicide, damaged his own legacy and lost the moral right to lead. The practicality of his rejection is one of the reasons why I argue that Nigeria, going forward, should consider the option of a return to a parliamentary system of government or a combination of the parliamentary and the presidential, as has been robustly canvassed in the extant literature on the subject. The Presidential system creates monarchs, and that is precisely what it does in developing economies. A parliamentary system places greater emphasis on accountability and responsibility at all levels, and the people’s voice. That is what we need. But what do we have?    

Nigeria’s political process is inundated with nonsense for structural reasons and what we have is a mad-house.  In the UK at the moment, there is a race to succeed Boris Johnson. There is a consensus that the Prime Minister has overstayed his welcome. His party needs to get rid of him, to protect the party ahead of the next general elections. Boris Johnson as Prime Minister has desecrated the seat long enough. He has resigned. He will quit on September 5. But as his party, the Tories seek to appoint a new leader and a new Prime Minister, what we see is a focus on the issues. About eleven candidates began the race for No. 10 but after five ballots within the party the choice has been narrowed down to former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Before this Liz vs Rishi moment, it must be noted that the arguments have been about issues and the British people – what can be done to make their lot better, what can be done to reinvent the party and deliver better dividends to the people in the face of an excruciating cost of living crisis – the cost of gas is high, the NHS is in trouble, inflation is so high, the Bank of England has had to tighten rates five times, persons in England now skip meals, confronted as they are by foodflation-  so, how to save the Tory party and move beyond Boris Johnson. We have seen in that example, even if the eventual choice would be determined by a minority of about 160, 00 Tory party members, a focus on the big issues that are relevant to the people’s interests. Human beings will ways be human, I know that, but even the personal attacks that we have seen in the Tory dog-fight: on Penny Mordaunt, on Sunak’s centrism, Liz Truss’s extreme right politics have all been within the context of ideas and ideologies. The top contestants are talking about China, immigration, national security, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, cost of living crisis, climate change, tax cuts and investments. When the British eventually make their choice at the current intra-party level, it would be a choice between definite ideas, and when they do so in a future general election, it would also be about ideas and the people’s interest.

While the British are in that mode right now, Nigeria is also looking for new leadership, from a choice of 18 political parties and Presidential candidates. Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak had their first, major, one-on-one debate at 9 pm on Monday. The debate continues today, on Tuesday. Both debates matter because the candidates are spelling out their mission and vision. They will be watched closely and scrutinized by their publics, and whoever wins and emerges through the process would be convinced that the battle was truly won and lost as both candidates continue to slug it out on the battle-grounds.   Here, in Nigeria, the candidates are not talking to the people. With the key exception of Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Omoyele Sowore of the Africa Acton Congress (AAC), who both run movements, not political parties, the other candidates are busy talking to their kind: godfathers, persons they think control Nigeria, and who can fix the election for them, and the party elite. When they remember the people, they throw money at them, and promise to give them more money if they are elected. 

Nigeria, like many developing countries of the world that jumped on the democratization scheme in the early 90s, does not understand what it means nor have the people been able to domesticate the idea of democracy. The democratic project was imposed by the West as a one-size-fits all proposition, but the many contradictions that this has thrown up is beguiling. To use Nigeria as an example, it would be in order to say that Nigeria is not ready for democracy, certainly not in the present shape in which it is. Nigerian politicians are royalists with an undeserved sense of entitlement. They want power because power is sweet and grants a sense of control, relevance and importance. Our democracy is a democracy of terrorists, scavengers and opportunists. This is why there is a terrible gap between those at the apex and those at the base of society. Those who argue that the electorate should get their voters’ cards and make informed choices at the polls next year are all correct, and spot on, but what is anyone doing about the people’s cynicism, and the banditi-zation of Nigerian politics?  In the absence of ideas and good conduct by the political elite, the people are in order to be cynical, as they have ever been, and what we see in the current lead up to Nigeria’s 2023 general election is chaotic cynicism.  

Back to our original question: what are the big issues in Nigerian politics at this moment?  The multiple reactions that have attended the Arise News interview with PDP Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar simply show the lack of preparedness at the highest levels in this country. Nobody is talking about ideas. The reactions have been about peripheral issues, not ideas. Arise News sat with Atiku for a whole hour and raised issues ranging from politics to economy, relationships and other matters Nigeriana. The Nigerian social media mob took up editorial duties that is entirely not their business as they focused on sponsored and teleguided BS and in their sponsored frenzy, they failed to look at key issues. The only exception in this regard would be in my view, Farooq Kperogi, the scholar and columnist, who resisted and cleverly avoided a habitual tendency to be unkind to other people’s efforts. He focused on bigger issues. But what came from the other communities, that is, the opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Tinubu Campaign Organization, the Obidient movement supporting Peter Obi, and the Wike Camp, were the usual diatribe about ego: my candidate is better than yours, you lied against me. Within 48 hours, the whole thing degenerated into an ego game. Wike is threatening to talk later and reveal mountains of truth. He should stop threatening. If he has anything to say, let him go ahead and do so forthwith.  Tinubu’s people have called Atiku a liar on the subject of Muslim-Muslim ticket. Atiku says he wants Tinubu in a one-on-one, one hour debate to settle the matter once and for all. Tinubu, we are told, has a memory loss issue. 

I won’t be surprised if the two candidates start talking about whose wife is more beautiful and who can still crack the best fires in the other room, or who is richer, or more energetic. The Tinubu group picked on the smallest issues in the Atiku conversation, talking about Abraham Lincoln, the politics of running mates, whereas there are more important issues about the economy, privatization, national security, education and health. The way the Nigerian process is going, nobody will talk about what concerns the people. The politicians will share money on or before election day, and given the arrest of persons during the recent Ekiti and Osun Gubernatorial, off-cycle elections, the political bandits will find smarter ways of buying votes, and the ordinary people will find new ways of collecting electoral bribe. It is safe to say that there is no tested, effective law in place yet that addresses this challenge. 

So, why are ideas no longer relevant in Nigerian politics?  Most of the 18 Presidential candidates have no manifesto. For more than two weeks, the Tinubu Campaign Organization, after rejecting a document that was widely circulated threatened to release a manifesto. Nobody has seen that manifesto yet. What we see are reactions to rival political candidates on peripheral issues. More serious candidates who could have been on the ballot ironically have since been pushed out of the race. Where is Kingsley Moghalu for example? And why is Omoyele Sowore being treated like a student unionist? And why has Peter Obi been reduced to a social media sensation? Ideas, Ideas, ideas. We can’t get anything concrete. Nobody listens to ideas, because the ones that are ready to promote them are not given the opportunity to do so. Those who try to generate ideas, outside partisan boundaries, are treated badly. In 2015, it would be remembered that the APC in seeking to wrest power from the ruling PDP tried to construct its gambit around ideas: security, the economy and fight against corruption. In 2019, the ruling party sustained the same mantra and asked for an opportunity to complete what it started. In 2022/2023, the main gladiators are terribly distracted.  

Yet, the major issue in Nigeria’s democracy – federal and state levels today, should be ideas and specific performance. Since the beginning of this campaign, the main candidates have discussed nothing but religion, ethnicity, personal health, clothing, and personality. The 2023 campaign has been dominated by personal ambition and expectations and trivia. Many of the presidential candidates that have emerged do not even have manifestoes. Nobody knows what they stand for or what they intend to do, not even what they understand about the task ahead. Titles are fashionable in Nigeria. Power is desirable. The allure of position and influence is magnetic. Nigerians would jump at anything along this spectrum. They want titles, not responsibility. This is why I think the reaction to the Arise News conversation with Atiku Abubakar veered off from the centre to the periphery. There are issues indicated in that conversation and alive in the public domain that have been conveniently ignored.    

NNPC has just been unveiled as a new, commercial entity, in an industry that accounts for 80% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. What do the Presidential candidates intend to do about that?  Nigeria has a debt to revenue ratio crisis, with debt service cost exceeding revenue by about 119% per cent? The national grid continues to collapse and function epileptically. Inflation is as high as 18.6%. There is unemployment in the land. Food inflation as well. Life is so insecure, terrorists are threatening to abduct the President, Senators and Governors and either kill them or sell them into slavery, and they sound very serious about that objective. Yesterday, they even made an effort to engage the Presidential guards in Abuja. The country also faces a serious foreign exchange crisis – it is so bad that even bread makers are threatening to go on strike because they cannot access forex and raw materials. The aviation sector is down. The nation’s currency has lost everything including its integrity, the big question is how to save it. In real terms, this country is on the way to Venezuela if not Sri Lanka or Lebanon. These are important issues that should engage the attention of those who want to rule the country. But the space has been taken over by spokespersons writing platitudes and reticent candidates who piggy-back on the dominance of their parties and abdicate responsibility without negotiating the issues and a proper assessment of the chaos that is upon us. The country’s destiny seems postponed. This trend must change.  Every Presidential candidate should be shown the video of yesterday’s UK Prime Ministerial debate between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss.

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Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Topic: Unveiling of the new NNPC

Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022

Guest: Mascot Ogunjemiyo (Oil & Gas Analyst)

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On Monday, Mercy Chinwo, the famous gospel singer, began her marital journey with Blessed Uzochikwa, the head pastor of The Water Brook Church in Lagos.

The marriage introduction took place in Portharcourt, the capital of Rivers state.

The event witnessed the presence of friends and colleagues of the couple including Banky W and Adesua Etomi.

In videos and photos that surfaced on social media, the gospel singer is seen gushing over her husband at the wedding introduction.

The star-studded event saw the families and prospective inlaws of Mercy and Blessed officially introduced to one another as a new relationship is birthed.

Mercy also shared a couple of videos from the event on Instagram.

One of the captions read: “My joy knows no bounds. Thank you Jesus.”

The couple announced their engagement on June 23.

Chinwo, who won season 2 of the Nigerian Idol, has continued to enjoy fame in the country’s gospel music scene.

The 31-year-old singer has put out several hit gospel tracks including ‘Chinedum’, ‘Onyedikagi’, ‘Excess Love’, and ‘Obinasom’.

Blessed, on the other hand, is also popular for his inspirational messages.

See photos below:

[TheCable]

This day, July 19 should go down as a special moment in the economic history of Nigeria – the day when the country’s main vehicle for economic survival, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) is officially unveiled by the incumbent President as a commercial venture. The transition took effect on July 1, in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021. But by noon today, NNPC would have formally made that transition from being a corporation to become a limited liability company, a company limited by shares, to be known hereafter as NNPC Limited, that is a commercial venture. In some of our media platforms in the last few days, the NNPC hierarchy has been staging a song and a dance over the fact that the NNPC was indeed about to become a new entity. What does this mean in real terms for Nigerians? While we are all obsessed with politics, the Osun Gubernatorial election being the latest menu on the plate of the commentariat and the political elite, it seems to me that the transition that is to be unveiled today at the NNPC deserves some interest. Established in 1977, 45 years ago, the NNPC manages Nigeria’s crude oil, gas and petrochemical resources, the joint venture between Nigeria and oil multinationals, and also engages in petroleum exploration and production through the country’s four refineries. 

Crude oil accounts for more than 80% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. With Nigeria identified as the sixth largest oil producer in the world, and with the country blessed with the sweet, low-sulphur, top grade Brent Crude variety, crude oil was effectively Nigeria’s equivalent of manna from Heaven. In due course, we were told that Nigeria is even more of a gas producing country than an oil dependent country. Milk and honey practically flow under Nigeria’s soil. It has been NNPC’s business to manage all of that, and bring profit to the country. Nigeria is not the only country that has been so privileged. They have oil and gas in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, UAE, Venezuela (bad reference in the circumstance), Libya, Kuwait, the United States, Norway and quite a number of other countries. Whereas oil and gas resources have brought some countries power and glory, Nigeria’s experience has been mixed and problematic. From being a resource-rich country in the 70s and 80s, crude oil in particular has turned out to be a source of agony and pain for Nigeria. We squandered the riches. A terrible economy developed over the years around oil and gas. Politics, ethnicity, greed, corruption and all the other ailments that assail the country found a home in the oil and gas sector. This should not be surprising. The easiest way to make money in Nigeria is to get into the oily business. It was a matter of time before the people would begin to agitate for reforms and a change of regime. And it happened. Oil resource became the target of seething anger within the system. Those who believe that the oil and gas that come from their soil in the Niger Delta is theirs see no reason why anyone, any group or any region that does not produce oil and gas should benefit from other people’s endowments in a supposedly federal system.  Oil became political. Politics became oily and gassy. Right at the centre of this conundrum was the NNPC, and the country’s Ministry of Petroleum Resources and everything attached thereto.

To address both the sentiments and the substance around this issue, there have been calls for resource control. From Adaka Boro to Ken Saro-Wiwa and beyond, there have been calls for true federalism, secession, respect for the rights of ethnic minorities, and counter arguments along geographical lines with the North pitched against the South on the question of who owns what, who should get what, and what share – Nigeria’s main revenue being oil and gas. In due course, the Petroleum Industry Bill was introduced to address many of the issues: governance, regulatory frameworks, community relations and management. When President Muhammadu Buhari unveils a new NNPC this morning, with a new brand, logo and identity, NNPC Limited emerging in place of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, he would be giving effect to a major plank of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).  President Buhari can comfortably claim the PIA as one of the achievements of his administration. For decades, Nigerians complained about the need for reform in the oil and gas sector. They asked for a review of joint venture frameworks. They wanted a new NNPC that would be organized for productivity and efficiency and not a mere government parastatal bogged down by politics and graft. Oil bearing communities also had their demands relating to justice, equity and fairness and how these have been treated shabbily within the larger Nigerian equation.

For decades, the Nigerian legislature toyed with the law. Under Buhari, the law was passed. It seeks to provide a new governance framework in the oil and gas sector. The law removes the subsidy in the downstream sector especially with regard to petrol. It decrees a transformation of the NNPC into a profit making, independent, commercial venture. Before now, the NNPC has been run as a cash cow for the Nigerian Government, as a dependent public sector agency. It manages the oil and gas resources of the country, makes money, transmits same to the Treasury. Every month, state governments carry bowls in hands, rush to Abuja and at what is called the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee meeting (FAAC), collect their own share of the national cake. Everyone got so greedy, everything got so mismanaged, NNPC got to a point it started protesting that there was very little to share or add again.  For months, the NPPC using the excuse of under-recovery and subsidy has not been able to contribute as much as it should to the national purse. This is one reason why its reform is imperative. The PIA has offered a window but how open is that window?

The unveiling of a new NNPC should be seen correctly by industry watchers as a positive development. The need for the transition as proposed is justified by how Nigeria’s national oil company performs badly against its peers. In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia has been using its energy resources as a weapon against Europe which depended on Russia for about 40% of its energy needs. Russia simply turned off the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for routine maintenance, and asked for payments in rouble, to push Europe into confusion, and energy prices to the roof. Countries with high demand for energy are groaning. Countries that are rich in oil and gas are smiling: Saudi Arabia and other countries of the Middle East are being wooed as the West looks for alternative sources of energy. The United States is wooing Saudi Arabia afresh. It has tried to soften a bit on Venezuela. Sri Lanka in the Indian sub-ocean is in trouble in part because it cannot provide fuel, food and medicines for the people. Pakistan is hanging on to the IMF to bail it out. Cost of living crisis is a major issue in Great Britain. While Europe is looking towards Algeria, Tunisia, and Angola for solutions and alternatives, Nigeria has been caught flat-footed. Rather than turn the current global crisis into an advantage, we are busy here lamenting that rising oil prices amount to a curse for Nigeria. We are not befitting because we are not ready. In today’s global energy mix, Nigeria pays a huge price for its own failures in managing its main resource and the plain view reason is this: the failure of leadership.  

NNPC wears a new toga today. We have made that point. Restructuring of the public sector has been a recurring decimal in Nigeria’s economic history. The question has always been: how can public enterprises be made more profitable: commercialization, privatization or liberalization? Liberalization as in the telecommunication sector has resulted in growth and innovation and the end of the inefficiency of the old, state-owned NITEL. That is one good example. In a deregulated regime, the state has no control over price. It can only regulate quality. Under a privatization regime, the state can regulate, but the entity is controlled by its shareholders. The fundamental thing is: a private entity is after the maximization of profit and minimal cost.  What has happened to the NNPC is commercialization, not privatization. But don’t get it twisted: NNPC still remains in the public sector. That is why it is still called Nigerian National… The only difference is that as a commercial entity, it will now have to pay more attention to its profit and cost centres. While there is a limit to which it can dictate price and profit, it must be noted that it can no longer do business as usual.

What is also new is that while the NNPC may still have a relationship with government, the same government can no longer have control over the staffing of the NNPC. The control of the Minister of Petroleum will be limited. As a commercial entity, the NNPC is beholden to its shareholders. Competence, quality will determine recruitment. The old practice of anyone in government sending notes for NNPC allocation or positions would be untenable under the new arrangement. Nobody can send in a note anyhow. The influence of rent collectors would be watered down, if not completely eliminated. It also means that the country can no longer depend mainly on NNPC for Federation Accounts returns (FAAC). The Federal Government would be entitled strictly to returns on its shares.  In all of these regards, today’s development, NNPC’s transition into a commercial entity is a laudable development. The Group CEO of the new company, the erstwhile Group GMD of the NNPC whose title has thus changed, has alluded much to this when he made it clear in the past few days that (i) NNPC going forward is responsible to its shareholders as a limited liability company, (2) whatever service it provides for the Federal Government would be for a fee, (3) subsidy is not the responsibility of the NNPC, but that of the Federal Government and (iv) NNPC is committed to transparency and accountability, and accounting rules.

At the unveiling today, the Buhari government can commend itself for seeing through the PIA. But the skeptics are unrelenting and they have raised issues that we need to worry about. They argue for example that it is indeed a good and proper thing to seek to make the NNPC as efficient and as profitable as Saudi Arabia’s ARAMCO and other peers elsewhere but the problem is that NNPC is still tied to the apron strings of government. Most of the workers are still workers of the Nigerian government. As a commercial entity, it should be possible for the company to source its own expertise, consultants and staff from anywhere without the Nigerian government imposing the constraints of ethnicity and federal character.  The NNPC of old ran a Nigerian-factor regime where some characters thought access to political power and influence granted them automatic control over the resource management company. Such a system would not be acceptable under the new mode of doing business. That has to change forthwith, to send the strong signal that it is indeed no longer business as usual. Second, the much-talked about NNPC shareholders are the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MoFI) and the Nigerian Treasury, which are both government entities. NNPC says it will send debit and credit notes for services rendered to demonstrate its own accountability and commitment to EITI principles. MoFI can claim that it represents the Nigerian people. What will NNPC Ltd do if government fails to pay – this same government that does not pay electricity bills or ASUU salaries? And as things stand, it looks like NNPC truly can no longer be held responsible for monthly contributions to the Federation Account.   

Nonetheless, the NNPC as a commercial entity can only succeed as much as the Federal Government wants it to. As long as the NNPC is government-linked, there will be issues. For the NNPC to succeed, it needs to function under a government that understands the meaning and implications of profit and loss. There is a need for deep reform, for the people’s overall benefit. The meaning of the new dispensation is that NNPC would have no option but to send debit notes to the Federal Government, because the company won’t be able to hide the gaps in its balance sheet. The Buhari government does not have this profit and loss orientation mindset that is required to birth a new NNPC.  The responsibility for that would have to be taken up perhaps by a new government. We can only hope that the would-be next President of Nigeria, whoever he turns out to be, is thinking of this, from both an economic and national security perspective. A food for thought is the position that in the long run, the NNPC must be privatized. Its board must not be a political Board, it must be a commerce-oriented Board. The experts must be allowed to do their job, not politicians, seeking rent. NNPC shares must be sold directly to the public as a company under the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA).

There is the unresolved issue of refineries. There is nothing wrong in Nigeria having a national oil company, but to save the NNPC, it is important to keep the fundamentals in mind. NNPC’s transformation comes at a time when the world faces an energy crisis, and a cost-of-living dilemma. It makes no sense that the country’s four refineries are grounded, or running at a loss. It is shameful that Nigeria cannot meet its OPEC quota. It is scandalous that it is only just now that we are beginning to talk more seriously about transparency and accountability in the management of the country’s most strategic resource. The emergence of a new NNPC is a good idea, but it seems to me that the best that the Mele Kyari-team can do, for now, is to lay the foundation for a more far-reaching process. Under Mele Kyari’s watch, the NNPC published its first audited accounts in 43 years in 2020!   The new NNPC is expected to do things differently to attract investment, promote innovation, eliminate corruption and inefficiency, and ensure clarity. It must measure up like Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, and Brazil’s Petrobras. Its business model must work for the country’s benefit. The new NPPC must represent a transition in real terms into a new style and philosophy.

The ruckus that has been generated by the announcement of former Borno State Governor, Senator Kashim Shettima as running mate of the Presidential standard bearer of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), for the 2023 Presidential election is a perfect illustration and yet another sharp reminder of how religion has driven a wedge among Nigerians. Religion, etymologically, is derived from the Latin word, “religare” which means “to bind together”, but rather than bind the people of Nigeria together, religion has divided them along sectarian lines. It is the oxygen of devious power politics, sectarian politics, mass murder, terror, instability, and the plague of amorality. This is ironic, for Nigeria is clearly one of the most religious countries in the world, with every street, every corner boasting of either a church, a mosque, a shrine or a temple. The business of religion is also perhaps the most lucrative in Nigeria, with many religious groups noted more for commerce, hustling and mass hypnotism rather than piety, with a yawning gap between private and public morality, as the people commit atrocities in the name of God.

The evidence abounds in the weaponization of religion, even if the Nigerian Constitution states expressly that “the government of the Federation or of a state shall not adopt any religion as state religion”, the resort to violence on the basis of religion as has been witnessed over the years in the Middle Belt, Southern Kaduna and other parts of the country, the politics of Sharia, and the cruel exploitation of religion by political leaders. The easiest way to ignite violence in Nigeria is to play the ethnic or religious card as in Kafanchan, Kano, Jos, Zango-Kataf, Maitatsine riots, Kano, the slaughter of priests, incessant attacks on churches. Many have died for no just cause: Gideon Akaluka, Mrs. Christianah Oluwatoyin Oluwasesin, Deaconess Eunice Olawale, Mrs. Eunice Elisha, Pastor Bolanle Ibrahim, Deborah Yakubu Samuel, all made worse since the return to civilian rule in 1999, by “the religion-inspired war” unleashed on Nigeria by Boko Haram and a band of terrorists and their international partners. Nor does it matter whether the perpetrators of violence are educated or not. Indeed, once upon a time, the University of Ibadan nearly witnessed an open warfare between Christians and Muslims within the community over the location of a Chapel Cross, which the Muslims asked to be removed because it was visible from the direction of the University Mosque, hence allegedly hindering the faith of worshippers! Between 1985 and 1986, this became known as the Cross and Crescent crisis in Ibadan. Religion is so sensitive that both Nigerian Muslims and Christians have learnt to live in an atmosphere of mutual suspicion. Such measures and groups as the Nigeria Inter-Religious Council (NIREC), Interfaith Mediation Centre (IMC) and Inter-Faith Dialogues have not necessarily promoted tolerance enough. The fear of likely domination by the other worsens the situation. Every election season, religion plays a major role in the selection of candidates giving rise to the need for zonal, ethnic, and religious balancing.

This is the general context of the emotions attached to the kind of ticket which politicians present to the electorate most especially at the Presidential and Gubernatorial levels. The convention is to have a balanced Muslim – Christian ticket or vice versa, to do otherwise is to exhume and oxygenate religious passion and prejudices. This is exactly what the Presidential candidate of the ruling APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has done by choosing a fellow Muslim as his running mate. Virtually every Christian group in the country, including the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Arewa Christians and Indigenous Pastors Association, and the Christian Global Network has kicked against this. No other general election in this country in recent memory has attracted as much religious sentiment. Faced with unprecedented assault in the last few years, the Christian community has been vocal in seeking to defend itself physically, and by mobilizing the congregation to vote, and defend Christian choices.

Christians have been advised by some of their leaders to take up arms to defend themselves. Many churches have turned the possession of Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) into an access card to church. Those without PVCs have been told to stay away. Some major Christian denominations have also set up Departments devoted exclusively to politics and voter mobilization. Out of distrust and fear of the havoc that has been wreaked over time in the name of religion, Nigerian Christians want their own men and women in positions of authority. The other political parties that have announced their Presidential running mates so far have exercised great caution in this regard, more so as the churches warned before now that in 2023, a same-faith, Muslim-Muslim ticket would not be acceptable. The Bible enjoins Christians “to turn the other cheek.” Christians in Nigeria have since abandoned that injunction. They are on their way back to the Old Testament.   

Is Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, APC Presidential candidate not aware of this? Of course, he is. He has been in politics long enough to know that politics in Nigeria is driven by sentiments. But in choosing a Muslim like himself as running mate, he provides a robust even if rhetorical, defence that has been questioned by members of his own party and outsiders alike. He has been accused, for example, of promoting the politics of exclusion and discrimination against Christians. An APC member, Daniel Bwala has resigned from the party in protest. Another APC member, Senator Elisha Abbo (Adamawa North) has resigned his membership of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Campaign organization. Tinubu however says: “To re-envision and reshape the nation, I must compose the best team possible, a team put together with but one overriding purpose:  to forever establish, just, capable and compassionate governance for the people of Nigeria without regard to religion, region or ethnic origin.”  

The problem here is that it is impossible to do anything in Nigeria without “religion, region, or ethnic origin.” Is this part of the candidate’s statement written by a foreigner? Nigerians, Christians and Southerners, have said they don’t want another eight years of Northern leadership or any arrangement that excludes Christians completely.  A few paragraphs later, Tinubu says: “A dominant theme of my political history and my personal life is my staunch belief in our diversity…My selection of a running mate comports entirely with this longstanding inclination.” So, how exactly does a Muslim-Muslim ticket promote diversity?  He goes further to state that he is aware of the “energetic discourse concerning the possible religion of my running mate…today, I announce my selection with pride because I have made it not based on religion or to please one community or the other.” The counter-argument by Christians is that a Muslim-Muslim ticket will definitely please the Muslim community, and make Christians feel alienated. Asiwaju Tinubu’s attempt to discount the factor of religion is a hard sell. The Nigerian Christian community is not impressed.

Tinubu sells Shettima to the electorate: “as a man with the talent, maturity, strength of character, and patriotism” and adds that “he has my implicit confidence and faith.”  He obviously feels comfortable with Senator Shettima, and that is fine – compatibility, apart from electoral value is an important consideration in choosing a running mate. Shettima was a major player in Tinubu’s emergence as APC Presidential candidate. He was director of his campaign. Both men also have a good relationship: Shettima is after all, a major exponent of the “Emi Lo Kan” – “It is my turn” - agenda. He is being rewarded for his loyalty. Tinubu further talks about “the need to place competence above religious sentiment”.  There is no doubt that Senator Shettima is a competent man. He is educated, brilliant, experienced, articulate and fit. He holds a B. Sc. in Agricultural Economics from the University of Maiduguri, and an M. Sc. in the same discipline from the University of Ibadan. He has worked as a University Teacher and as a Banker. He has also served as a commissioner five times in his home-state of Borno in different Ministries, Governor for eight years and Senator of the Federal Republic for 4 years. He can read a book and understand what it says, he can even quote Shakespeare effortlessly. Except that the biggest obstacle is the question of his faith. He is a Muslim, running a ticket with a Muslim. Tinubu says that should not be a problem.  He argues that “the spirit of 1993 is upon us again in 2023.”  I have heard some persons in response to that saying Tinubu should speak for himself. The spirit of 1993 may be upon him as a person, but some people draw attention to the fact that we are in 2022, not 1993 and the times are different.

Tinubu is referring to the Muslim-Muslim ticket of Chief MKO Abiola and Alhaji Baba Gana Kingibe on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 1993 Presidential election. Tinubu has practically replicated the Abiola-Kingibe model. Kingibe like Shettima, to drive home the appropriation, is a Kanuri, from the same state of Borno in the North East geo-political zone. But that is only as far as the comparison should go. In 1993, the Muslim-Muslim ticket may not have mattered because Nigerians wanted democracy badly. They were tired of military rule. Besides, religious conflict had not yet assumed its current hydra-headed, octopoid shape. As Simon Kolawole pointed out earlier in a piece titled “The Awkward Muslim-Muslim ticket” (ThisDay, June 18, 2022) - “before the late 1980s, religion was not a defining factor in national politics.” Under the Shehu Shagari administration, Shagari was a Muslim, and Fulani, but the Senate President, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and all his Service Chiefs were Christians. This was not an issue. In 1979, Chief Jeremiah Obafemi Awolowo, candidate of the Unity Party of Nigeria ran a Christian-Christian, all Southern, Ogun-Anambra ticket with Philip Umeadi. Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, Presidential candidate of the Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) picked his running mate from Southern Kaduna, Dr. Ishaya Audu, a Christian. That was once upon a time in Nigeria, but not anymore. Some observers have talked about Governor Nasir el-Rufai running a Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna State and getting away with it, but Kaduna is not Nigeria. A state with a population of a little over 9 million cannot be compared to a complex country like Nigeria. In today’s Nigeria, it will be difficult for anyone to run an entirely Southern or an entirely Northern Presidential ticket with the candidates being of the same faith. Such a proposal would be dead on arrival – that is the extent to which religion has divided us. The APC proposal as it is therefore, seeks to test the established order and sentiments. It is a bold move. But what are Tinubu’s strategic thoughts? How strong are his propositions?

No 1: Electoral value. Politicians make choices in order to win not to lose. Senator Shettima is Kanuri from the North East. Would it have been better to pick a running mate from the North West which has more voters compared to the entire North East? A running mate to Tinubu from the North West would have meant picking from the same zone as the outgoing President and from a zone that had previously produced late President Shehu Shagari, late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, former Vice President Namadi Sambo and a couple of former military Heads of State (Murtala Muhammad and Sani Abacha). The North East has to date produced only Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa from Bauchi State. The Kanuris are not as populous as the Hausa-Fulani but would the Northern voter worry about that or be more concerned that the Presidential running mate of the APC is a Muslim? Besides, Senator Shettima is from the same geo-political zone as the PDP Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. His presence on the APC ticket could swing significant votes in favour of the party and divide Atiku’s votes. I had in fact argued in a piece titled “June 12, 1993, Running Mates and 2023” (ThisDay, Tuesday, June 14, 2022) as follows: “If Tinubu must pick a Muslim running mate as has been argued, his best choice is Kashim Shettima, former Governor of Borno State.”

No. 2:  Religion. We have established that this would remain an issue. The ready argument by those who do not consider it an issue is that Christians constitute a minority in the entire North where the population is predominantly Muslim. But is that why Northern Christians should be excluded? Are there no Northern Christians that have the clout and the credentials to win big-ticket elections? Or that is “competent, reliable, capable and able?” By choosing a Muslim as his strategists advised, and as he has done, Tinubu is obviously leaving himself open to the accusation that he has no regard for the Christian community. He is nonetheless considered by many a liberal Muslim. His wife is even a Pastor in a Pentecostal Church. He also knows that whereas it would be easier for him to defeat his major opponents in the South West and parts of the South, the main battle ground for his candidacy would be in the North. A Muslim-Muslim team is an attempt to woo and win the votes of the Muslim majority in the North. Examined closely, this is a cold-blooded, Machiavellian move. But did Tinubu at any time make any effort to consult the Northern Christian leadership and try to carry them along, before making his announcement? If he has not done so, let him do so now.  

No 3: Finally, does religion necessarily make our leaders good men and women? Absolutely not. Religion is that affective thing in our consciousness which may have no bearing whatsoever with our daily conduct or character. Some of the most religious people are also some of the worst human beings ever. Nigerians are looking for good leaders, leaders who can address the major issues that affect their lives, and who can make Nigeria a better and safer place for all.

The strongest value of democracy is that it offers the people an opportunity to make their own choice. In 2023, it is up to the Nigerian people to vote according to their conscience. There are options on the table. The electoral umpires must provide the enabling environment for the people to vote freely, without any form of hindrance, and every opportunity to ensure that their votes count. In the end, that is all that matters.   

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Nyesom Wike, Governor of Rivers State is the biggest issue in the politics of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) at the moment. To put it differently, Nigeria’s major opposition party, the PDP, has a Wike problem. The extent of that has now been formally acknowledged by the party when the Chairman of the Board of Trustees, Walid Jibrin, announced that major stakeholders in the party led by Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and his chosen running mate, Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta, all PDP Governors, members of the BOT and other major stakeholders must go to Port Harcourt to appeal to Wike not to leave the party, not to get angry, and not to do anything against the party. Wike is the Governor of Rivers state. He claims that since the PDP lost power in 2015, he has been the one carrying the party on his back, providing resources and leadership at a time the PDP, out of power, began to behave like fish out of water. Wike filled the void. And now in 2022, he presented himself as an advocate for the shift of power to the South, and his good self as a Presidential candidate.

By some alchemy, the PDP ignored Section 3 its own constitution and decided through a 37-member committee that the party would jettison its zoning formula, the same formula, that was appropriated by the rival All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria’ ruling party, and hence, the party threw the Presidency on its platform open. Nyesom Wike didn’t think that was right and so he threw his hat into the ring and decided to run for the position. His ambition has turned out to be a teachable moment and a reality check, and perhaps, in the long run, a reminder of his own naivety.  Twenty-four hours to the PDP Presidential Convention, held in Abuja on May 28 everyone thought that the Southern agenda would prevail and that Wike or any of the other Southern aspirants including former Secretary to the Government Anyim Pius Anyim, and former Senate President, Bukola Saraki would get the nomination of the party.

Within the said 24 hours, everything changed. Northerners are better politicians than Southerners, be it in the PDP or any other political party. Southerners talk too much. Northerners think and strategize. While the latter think of community and group interests, the egoistic, Mercedes Benz crowd down South thinks only of ego and personal ambition.  At the PDP National Convention, as it happened, Governor Aminu Tambuwal stepped forward and openly declared support for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. This was a game changer. In 2019, Nyesom Wike, Governor of Rivers State, supported the same Governor Tambuwal. On May 28 2022, Tambuwal disappointed him and threw him under the bus. I have not seen or heard of any attempt by Governor Tambuwal to say sorry, or reach out. Instead, he got a hero’s welcome on his return to Sokoto and has since picked up the PDP Senatorial ticket for Sokoto South.   

Wike did not just suffer the open humiliation and treachery by Governor Tambuwal, he came second on that account. Tambuwal is from the North West, a zone which controlled majority of delegates at the PDP Convention. Wike’s supporters continue to blame Tambuwal for Wike’s loss. They insist that he violated the principle that “one good turn deserves another.” Wike came second in the PDP Presidential primary process. What then remained was for the party to choose a running mate, and even in that regard, Wike lost out. Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State behaving like a Wike henchman said on international television, that Wike is the best thing that has ever happened to the PDP, post-2015 and that a committee of which he was a member having selected him as the right person to be running mate to Atiku, feels doubly disappointed that Atiku chose someone else – Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, the PDP Governor of Delta State. He admits nonetheless that Okowa is eminently qualified having run the entire gamut of public service administrative experience from Local Government Chairman all the way to the top. But he thinks Atiku Abubakar has erred by rejecting Wike who was chosen by 14 out of a 17-member panel. Wike’s supporters are mourning. They think they have been short-changed. They think Wike’s contributions to the party have been thrashed to spite and humiliate him.  Politics is a mad house. Wike’s supporters also want to prove that they cannot be treated shabbily. There is indeed a new brand of madness growing like marijuana in the PDP that may offer an undeserved advantage to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), or the now much identified Third Force in Nigerian Politics represented by the Labour Party and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).       

It is therefore, good reasoning that the leadership of the PDP is reaching out to Nyesom Wike. It also makes sense that the Chairman of the party’s BOT, Alhaji Walid Jibrin has told party members and stakeholders to stop misbehaving. There are persons within the party who have said Wike is a nobody and can be discounted. They forget that in 2019, Rivers State under his watch delivered the highest number of votes to the PDP. The big problem with the PDP is that it has too many big men, who think they are larger than life. They seem to have forgotten that the party failed to rule for 60 years as a party leader once predicted and that the times have changed. Following the BOT Chairman’s directives, Atiku Abubakar and Ifeanyi Okowa should visit Wike and make peace.  The simple principle is that you cannot spank a child and not expect him to cry. Let him cry. He cries. You mollify him. But the question to ask in that regard is: why Wike? Why is he the only one weeping? There were others in that race: Anyim, Saraki, Ohuabunwa, Dele Momodu, Bala Muhammed, Mohammed Hayatudeen, Ayo Fayose, Udom Emmanuel… 13 aspirants, so why is Wike the only one crying as if he has lost his precious toy? Why does he and his supporters feel so entitled?

Atiku in particular needs to pay attention. In 2019, it was said at a point that he had chosen or had promised now embattled, Senator Ike Ekweremadu that he would be his running mate. He ended up choosing Peter Obi. In the Presidential 2019 election, he didn’t get the kind of support he expected from the South East, because he, himself mixed things up. Obi went into that election with him, with many of his own kinsmen, divided by Atiku’s choice. In 2022, Atiku has done the same thing. As former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s Vice President, the same issue that Atiku faced was that of trust and loyalty. He says he wants to unify the PDP, the community and the general society.  He must embark on that task without trust deficits. What is his response to the PDP BOT Chairman’s directive that a high-powered PDP delegation would visit Wike?  As of the time of this writing, I have not seen or read any direct response from him, but whatever it is, he must refrain from the twin temptations of contempt and arrogance. Let him visit Wike. Politics is all about Recognition, Respect and Relevance (the three Rs). That is all Wike wants. He needs that even if all it does is to energize his political libido.  Let him visit all the aggrieved stakeholders of the party too if he must.  

There are some Wike extremists within the PDP who insist that Okowa must be removed and replaced with Wike. I don’t think that would happen.  The party and the candidate have gone beyond that. Governor Okowa in his own right has excellent credentials, although he too, can’t find his Secondary School Leaving Certificate!  He is eminently qualified and experienced, they tell us. Nobody doubts that.  It would be stupid to stay that he should step down. Indeed, his own supporters claim that the furore that has been generated by Wike not being chosen as Presidential candidate and his being ignored as a possible running mate is a strong vindication of Atiku’s choice and the preference of a quiet stakeholder and partner like Okowa. Someone in fact told me that Wike has shown that he would have created conflict in the Presidency, if the party wins. I was tempted to say that Atiku did precisely so during Obasanjo’s second term, and such a future situation would have been Karmic. But I kept quiet. Politicians don’t always like to hear the truth. What we know is that compatibility is crucial, and Atiku has chosen the man he feels comfortable with.

So, what is next?  Wike’s supporters argue that if Okowa cannot be dropped, then Senator Iyorchia Ayu, the party Chairman, must go. Within 48 hours after the PDP presidential Convention, Senator Iyorchia Ayu went straight to visit Tambuwal in Abuja to declare him the “hero of the convention.” I thought that was very bad conduct on the part of the party Chairman. He was meant to be an impartial umpire, but by showing his bias so openly, he courted the current enmity that has been thrown at him. But beyond that is his own promise that if the Presidential candidate of the party came from the North, he would step down and allow a Southern Chairman of the party to emerge. Balance. Federal Character. Equity. Since the Convention, Senator Iyorchia Ayu has refused to move. He is the easiest victim within the PDP leadership hierarchy, nonetheless. If there must be a sacrificial lamb that would bring peace to the party, he must be willing and ready to take the bullet. He won’t be the first party Chairman to make such sacrifice. Let him know this: Even if Wike and gang forgive Atiku and embrace Okowa, they would not tolerate Iyorchia Ayu. Bite the bullet, Senator Ayu.

Already, Peter Ayo Fayose, former Governor of Ekiti State has been saying that the PDP cannot overlook the principle of Federal Character in Section 3 ( c ) of its Constitution. And when an attempt is finally made to reconcile with Wike and others, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar must lead the group personally. It is not for him to send for Wike or to send emissaries. He is the one who wants to be President. He needs everybody on board. He has promised to unify the party, the community and the country. He cannot do so from a high horse. He must “stoop to conquer”. One of the things being said by Wike’s supporters, for example, is that they are being treated as if they do not matter. They want to prove that they matter.  Candidly, PDP leaders must not behave as if they have been cursed by the trickster god, known as Esu in Yoruba mythology. They must learn from the lessons of history. In 2015 and again in 2019, they lost the Presidential election because their home was divided. The situation today is similar. The thinking that Atiku gets all his votes from the North and would do so again this time around is entirely myopic. Every vote in every part of the country matters, including Wike’s only vote and the votes of his placard-carrying supporters, and all the overlooked aggrieved members of the party of which there are many.    

 Nyesom Wike has since returned from his much-publicized vacation in Istanbul, Turkey where I guess he ate a little turkey and licked some ice cream. My advice to him is that he needs to chill out as they say. When a child is beaten, he has every right to cry. When an adult is betrayed, he has every reason to be angry. Wike wanted to be Presidential standard bearer. He failed. He also lost the running mate slot. He was betrayed by those he didn’t expect would do so. He has been openly angry enough. The whole world has heard him. But he must take one lesson away from it all: in Nigeria, when you want something so desperately, nobody will give it to you. There would be more than enough people who would deny you that which you crave, to humiliate and humble you. Wike is without doubt, a victim of his own hubris and expectations, but he is also a victim, for the want of a better term, of the sadomasochism of the Nigerian elite political class. He should stop knocking his head against the wall.

Traditionally, when a child is aggrieved and he starts crying, every effort will be made to mollify him, but if he keeps on crying and wailing, after a while, he would be left alone and those seeking to appease him would adopt a wait and see position in the expectation that once he gets tired, he would keep quiet. Wike should not stretch his matter to that point. He also needs to avoid a situation where he would become the easy and convenient reference in the event that the PDP loses the 2023 Presidential election or the butt of jokes if the party triumphs. No tree makes a forest, except of course you are cut in the mould of an Obafemi Awolowo. And Wike is not of that mould.

The only group enjoying all of this would be Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) Camp, and may be perhaps the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), the Kwankwasiya party and also, the Labour Party and its Obi-dient crowd who claim that Peter Obi is the answer, or that the PDP belongs to the museum of political relevance or that Peter Obi left the PDP because he saw tomorrow. They all exaggerate of course. But leaders of the PDP must be careful not to lose the election before it takes place, with their own misconduct and greed. Senator Walid Jibrin, Chairman of the party’s BOT has already warned the rank and file to desist from acrimony. He has a point. Years back, a prominent member of the party told me that the result of any election is usually known six months earlier. He predicted correctly at the time that the PDP would lose the 2015 Presidential election because the party was divided right down the middle. The PDP has found itself in the same situation today. The party is running against time and opportunity. It is mismanaging its internal politics to the advantage of the opposition. It is about time Atiku Abubakar began to unify the party as promised. He must cut short his long vacation and get down to work. More importantly, he must beware of the aggrieved who have chosen to be calm and silent. Wike is a symptom, not the real problem.             

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Topic: The Ekweremadu Saga

Date: Saturday, July 2, 2022

Guest: Akintayo Iwilade (Lawyer)

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