Nigerian songstress Simi has expressed disapproval over fans and members of the public calling her daughter, Adejare, ‘Duduke’.

Simi, while pregnant in 2020, released the hit single ‘Duduke’ in anticipation of the birth of her child with fellow artist Adekunle Gold.

As a result of the above, fans started calling their daughter ‘Duduke’ after the song when the celebrity couple welcomed her in June 2020.’

In a recent chat with VJ Adams, Simi was unequivocal about her dislike of the name her daughter was being called, saying it has no meaning.

She disclosed that ‘Duduke’ was just an onomatopoeia she used in the song to express how her baby makes her heart beat.

“People call my daughter Duduke, which I don’t like. That’s not her name. It doesn’t even mean anything.

“Had it meant something good, I would have allowed it. But it’s just a beat, duduke, duduke. That was what I meant. My heart beats like a drum.

“Stop calling my child Duduke [laughs]. But you know what? I get it, it’s coming from a good place, so I try not to react,” Simi said.

[The Sun]

Suwaiba Ahmad, the minister of state for education, says no student, whether in the urban or rural communities, will be left behind in Nigeria’s computer-based test transition.

The federal government plans to fully transition to CBT exams for the West African Examinations Council (WAEC) and other exam bodies by 2026.

Ahmad spoke during the monitoring of the West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) in some selected schools in Abuja on Tuesday.

Highlighting the significant improvements the CBT transition promises, the minister acknowledged the technical and infrastructural challenges that must be addressed before full implementation.

“We will not roll out CBT in a way that excludes any student. Every child will have the opportunity to write their examination, regardless of location or infrastructure,” she said.

“Nigerians should bear with us. We are taking all concerns seriously, and by the time CBT is fully rolled out, no child will be put at a disadvantage.”

Comparing the outcomes from traditional paper-based exams with the CBT, she said the visit showed a clear student preference for CBT.

“At a CBT centre, everything was orderly and timely, but at a paper-based exam centre, not only was the exam delayed due to rain, but the script was not even on the ground,” the minister said.

“These are the kinds of issues CBT is designed to eliminate. CBT will ensure students are given their full allotted exam time since the system begins counting only when the student accesses the questions.

“This helps to address problems like delays caused by weather, transportation issues, and administrative lapses.”

Beyond timing, Ahmad said that CBT was also seen as a solution to eliminating rampant examination malpractices.

She said that with the individualised sets of questions for each candidate, impersonation, question leaks, and systemic answer sharing would be drastically reduced.

“We know how students and schools manipulate the system, but CBT will shut those doors,” Ahmad said.

She, however, acknowledged that the transition may face major logistical hurdles, especially in rural areas where electricity and internet infrastructure remain weak.

The minister said WAEC and NECO were working closely with JAMB and other education stakeholders to address these gaps.

She added that the plan was to leverage JAMB’s well-equipped CBT centres for future exams, while also engaging with state governments to map out rural and urban challenges to design workable solutions.

“When we roll out the CBT examination, we are going to make use of existing JAMB centres. We are not going to make use of school centres, since, as you rightly mentioned, there are schools in the rural locations that don’t have light,” she said.

“This school we are currently inspecting has no power in the exam hall. If CBT were being conducted here today, that would pose a serious challenge.

“So all these are being considered and we are carefully planning to ensure that really when we embark on this CBT, no student is at a disadvantage.”

[TheCable]

For an economy serving over 200 million people and valued at N78.37 trillion, government policies, laws, and regulations play a powerful role in shaping outcomes.

Yet, Nigeria is proof that some of the most dynamic shifts in its economy are happening outside formal policy direction.

In recent years, the private sector has powered more than half of Nigeria’s growth, even as the state struggles to keep pace with industries being rapidly transformed by technology, youth-driven innovation, and informal enterprise.

The country’s economy has moved beyond oil. Agriculture still employs the most people and contributes about 25% to GDP.

Services, particularly telecoms, finance, and trade, now account for over 55%, while industry, including oil and gas, makes up just 20%.

Nigeria’s 3.4% GDP growth in 2024 was largely driven by these non-oil sectors, and that momentum is expected to continue in 2025.

But behind the official stats lies an untold story. A new generation of industry creators, digital entrepreneurs, crypto traders, and wellness startups is booming, yet remains undercounted and underserved. Most operate informally, without government incentives or tailored policies, yet they are creating jobs, building wealth, and reshaping the economy.

This list highlights 10 of those sectors: fast-growing industries that are thriving in spite of, not because of, government support. Together, they reveal the hidden drivers and missed opportunities of Nigeria’s economic future. 

The local government crisis, like our other self-inflicted problems, remains intractable because our leaders often prefer playing the ostrich instead of confronting our own demons. 

Let us start with the issue of the national question. When Oliver Stanley, for instance, in 1920, declared, “Our vision for Nigeria was a national self-government that secures to each separate people the right to maintain its identity, its individuality and its nationality, its own chosen form of government, which had been evolved for it by the wisdom and accumulated experiences of generation of its forbearers,” he spoke from experience.

The federal arrangement as a social system that guarantees unity in diversity was what ended centuries of tribal wars in Europe. Events after that speech confirmed that the golden age of our nation was between 1946 and 1966 when we practiced federalism.

But we cannot also pretend not to know the enemies of the federal arrangement that needed appeasement, especially after playing the leading role in the collapse of the First Republic and plunging the nation into an avoidable civil war.

Those who have continued to wage war against federalism are Fulani hegemonic rulers of the north who want to preserve Nigeria as home to stateless Fulani herders across West Africa, and their Igbo rival with identical worldview, who insist everywhere in Nigeria, except their Igbo nation, is home.

For those who have faith in our country, the cheapest way forward is returning to where the rain started to beat us. Unfortunately, for close to 60 years we have done everything, including the fruitless search for unity through social engineering efforts such as NYSC, quota system of admission into tertiary institutions and civil service and, of course, Obasanjo’s confiscation of regional financial, media and educational institutions, except digging ourselves out of the hole.

Now let us return to the crisis in the local councils. “Federalist practice is that local governments are creatures and subordinates of state governments and exist at their pleasure.” (Richard Sclar) And the United Nations concept of LGAs is “a political subdivision of a nation or a state in a federal system.”

Obasanjo and his military adventurers, aping the old imperial powers, institutionalised the local government as the third tier of government in 1976. He was to later declare with remorse, “When in 1976, we brought in Local Government Reforms, it was meant to be the third tier of the Government, and not meant to be subjected to the whims and caprices of any other government.”

They ignored the fact that the states are not supposed to be appendages of the central government but coordinates, operating on the basis of a constitution which allocates power to both tiers of government.

Not much thought went into Obasanjo’s decision. Out of self- deceit, we even refused to learn from the experience of India, one of the multicultural societies where the idea of local government as third tier of government flourished since 1992 when they started operating two very distinct forms: Urban localities, covered in the 74th amendment to the Constitution, established Municipalities that derive their powers from the individual state governments; and the other where the powers of rural localities have been formalised under the panchayati raj system, under the 73rd amendment to the Constitution.

While the 1950 and the 1966 Local Administration system inherited by our military adventurers stemmed from the 1947 policy thrust of the last colonial Secretary of State, Lord Creech-Jones, which stated that “the key to resolving the problems of African administration lay in the development of an efficient and democratic local government that is close to the people,” Obasanjo’s third tier of government was built on nothing.

This was why most people believe Obasanjo’s 1966 Local Government reform was designed not for grassroots development but to share the resources of more resourceful states among less resourceful states to support what many have described as Obasanjo’s ‘fake nationalism,’ which finds expression in forcing Nigeria’s ethnic nationalities at different levels of cultural development to operate at the same level, which in itself is an aberration in federalism.

Obasanjo’s political opponents believe he was not an independent arbiter in 1976 as evidence abounds to show he was anxious to please the north that allowed him to be in power following the assassination of Murtala Mohammed.

For instance, during the 1957 constitutional review, there were 12 provinces in the north and 12 in the south (or 15 if you add Oyo, divided into two in 1934, and the two southern Cameroon provinces which later joined Cameroon after a referendum.

 Obasanjo was part of Gowon’s administration that created a 12-state structure ‘without ‘rhythm or rhyme,’ second-in-command to Murtala Mohammed that turned the country into a 19-state structure, just as he had influence on Babangida that took the states to thirty. Obasanjo is perhaps the only one who can explain why we today have 19 states for the north and 17 for the south.

Similarly, in 1979, there were 301 LGAs in the country; but in the never discussed 1999 constitution, which became operational under Obasanjo, there were 774 LGAs named, with 413 councils for the north and 355 for the south.

Obasanjo started the transfer of state residual functions to the central government by amending Decree 13 of 1970 and Decree 9 of 1971, and this was to lead to other decrees that finally increased the legislative list from 45 in 1960 to 68 in the 1999 constitution.

Those Obasanjo used to foist the American variant of federalism, with a strong centre just to promote his fake nationalism, Chief Rotimi Williams and Professor Nwabueze, regretted and apologised for shortchanging Nigerians before their death. And coming under the aegis of ‘the Patriots,’ they vigorously campaigned for the reduction of the unwieldy and unviable 36 states into six geopolitical zones.

President Tinubu, who understands our crisis of nation building, perhaps more than any of his predecessors, has started by making the six geopolitical zones economic development areas. But the ultimate goal will be to convert them to political administrative centres with the support of the National Assembly, if they are to meet the challenges of immigrant killer herdsmen, banditry, out-of-school children and ravaging poverty.

With increased revenue accruing to states and LGAs from the federation account following the fuel subsidy removal, President Tinubu is, no doubt, anxious to ensure his Renewed Hope Agenda reflects positively on the lives of the people in the rural areas. This perhaps explains why he went to secure the Supreme Court judgment to “compel the 36 states to grant full autonomy to local governments in their states, prohibits state governors from unilateral, arbitrary and unlawful dissolution of democratically elected local government leaders for local governments, and restrains the governors from spending and tampering with funds released from the federation accounts for the benefits of the LGAs when no democratically elected local government system is put in place in the states.”

Nigerians have identified with the president’s judicial victory. But I am sure he understands it was a pyrrhic victory. That was why on Jan 2, 2025, while receiving members of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) at his Ikoyi residence, he admitted the Federal Government cannot take local government away from state governments and called for stronger collaboration between the federal and state governments to address pressing challenges, including local government autonomy, agricultural productivity, and currency stability

I am sure the president remembers he took the Obasanjo government to court where he secured judgment declaring that local governments could not have financial autonomy because they are not federating units of the federation.

But in the end, the president, no doubt, understands that the issue of local governments is political. He should work through the National Assembly to see how to cede the current unviable arbitrarily created LGAs to the states who will decide what to do with them. With 68 items on the exclusive list, the federal government has more than enough to chew.

Instead of replicating state Leviathans at the local level through financial autonomy, whatever is meant for the third tier of government, which in any case belongs to the states, should be channeled through the states that are better positioned to appreciate their immediate needs.

Events in the last one year have proved that the local government is an integral part of the state; and attempting to separate them from each other will be like trying to cut off the umbilical cord of a foetus from the mother.

Finally, much as we may demonise the governors, we have no reason to believe that dysfunctional Abuja that mismanaged the nation’s resources through massive stealing in the years of abundance (1999-2015), and brought the nation to its knees between 2015 and 2023 as a result of incompetence, is the messiah the LGAs need.

Just recently, and in a demonstration of institutional support and a signal to institutional progress, the Council of Retired Federal Permanent Secretaries (CORFEPS) paid a courtesy visit to my office at the Federal Civil Service Commission (FCSC). The visit provided another opportunity to deliberate on mutual concerns around the well-being of the federal service, and especially the civil service system and public administration profession in Nigeria.

The visit particularly afforded me another opportunity, for the umpteenth time, to restate my call for the resuscitation and revitalisation of the National Association for Public Administration and Management (NAPAM) as a key stakeholder that holds the community of practice together in Nigeria.

The visit also raises critical and fundamental questions that bother on what it means to categorise the public service as a profession and a vocation; the factors that short-circuit the growth and development process of the civil service in organisational development theory; the place of a vibrant professional body like NAPAM and the role it should play in rescuing the system; as well as the critical roles that significant stakeholders like the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, Heads of Service of States, the Federal and State Civil Service Commissions, departments of public administration in our tertiary institutions, government training institutions, research institutes and think tanks across the country, etc. have to play in facilitating the vocational status of the public administration profession in Nigeria. In this piece, I attempt to bring all these fundamental issues together as an advocacy piece.

My objective is to provide a methodological framework that could guide the revitalisation process for the reestablishment of NAPAM as a significant avenue for constituting a vibrant community of practice that could instigate theoretical and practical questions and issues around the organisational development of the civil service system.

The civil service system is currently in its bureaucratic phase. And this phase is determined by the evolution of the subsisting industrial revolution era-bureaucratic culture of command and control hierarchical cum seniority-based and rules compliant ‘I am directed’ managerial orientation of the civil service in Nigeria; one that is renowned for stifling innovation, administrative progress and performance effectiveness. I have termed this dysfunction as bureau-pathology.

It is a phase that undermines the capacity of a government to deliver on the dividends of democratic governance. And that failure is experienced by Nigerians in terms of bureaucratic red tapes all across the MDAs at federal, state and local government levels.

A bureaucratic civil service system implies that a lot is wrong with the system and its capacity readiness to deliver on its core mandates in terms of service delivery and institutional relevance to democratic imperatives that increase the welfare and well-being of the citizens.

Institutional and governance reforms are therefore required to articulate a convergence of theory and practice, as well as the injection of smart, good and best practices that enable the system to stimulate continuous learning and incremental improvement of management system. This serves to foreclose administrative inbreeding and dysfunctional decay at the heart of Nigeria’s public service bureau-pathology. And as is usual in this kind of diagnostic analysis, a recourse to administrative history becomes imperative.

The golden age of public administration in Nigeria in the 1960s till the mid-1970s was marked, among other things, by the alignment between town and gown especially with regard to policy-research partnership and networking that facilitated the emergence and functional relevance of the community of practice and its contribution to the optimal capacity of the public service.

From a recognition of the urgent need for a collaboration with academics to solidify policy initiatives, in the Western Region (which is one good practice that I had studied a lot closely), Chief Simeon Adebo constituted the “A Club” which took critical advantage of the proximity of the Universities of Ibadan and, subsequently, the University of Ife and their academics, to strengthen the capacity of the civil service and its economic analysis and policy intelligence. The A Club later morphed into the Regional Economic Planning Advisory Committee, and was later reinforced by an Administrative Research Group, all dedicated to critical and analytic reflection on the state of the civil service.

This town-gown synergy contributed in no small measure to the significant achievements of the civil service in terms of infrastructural developments for which the western region is known even till today.

And in this regard, we immediately see the significant roles that a professional body like NAPAM can play in strengthening the core mandate of the central governance cum personnel agencies as the preeminent gatekeeper that facilitates the entry requirements and career management that solidify the vocational status of the civil service as a critical profession for complementing the relevance of democratic governance in a state like Nigeria.

The FCSC for example has the constitutional mandate to recruit, appoint, deploy, and discipline civil service in a bid to profile a model civil service that is needed to make the civil service a world class institution. Its objectives are: (a) To appoint qualified candidates to man the different Ministries/Extra-Ministerial Departments in the Federal Civil Service; (b) To ensure that such appointments maintain/represent the Federal character of the Federal Republic of Nigeria; (c) To make recommendations to the Federal Government on Personnel policies aimed at improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the Federal Civil Service; and (d) To ensure that Personnel decisions are taken objectively, promptly and competently in accordance with the policies and interest of the Federal Government.

To be continued tomorrow

Prof. Olaopa is Chairman, Federal Civil Service Commission. He wrote from Abuja.

The senator representing Abia North, Orji Kalu, has urged President Bola Tinubu to sack some of his minsters and service chiefs.

Kalu, who is a member of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), stated this during an interview on Channels TV’s Politics Today on Monday.

The former Governor of Abia State said President Bola Ahmed Tinubu should take bold decisions for his government to succeed.

He said, “Some people working with President Tinubu should be relieved of their duties. Some of them should go — both from the security sector and among the ministers.

“President Tinubu must be courageous enough to sack some of these ministers. If he takes my advice, most of these ministers, I’ve appraised them and talked to him privately, most of them should go, and that is the truth.

“If he takes my advice, some of the security chiefs will also go. There is no sentiment about redeeming Nigeria if we really want to relieve Nigeria.”

However, Kalu said that Tinubu needs two more years for the economy to trickle down to ordinary Nigerians, saying ordinary Nigerians and manufacturers are bearing the brunt of the economic hardship.

He said, “The macro side is coming, but the other downsides are not coming very well. Nigerians in the lower area are still suffering. They have not started having the benefit of the changes President Tinubu is making.

“The changes are trickling down; it’s going to take another one to two years for the changes to come. And what is causing it is because insurgencies and the problems all over Nigeria are still making people not go to the farm. Some people working with Tinubu should be relieved of their duties.”

[DailyTrust]

There is looming fuel scarcity as the deadliest flood killed hundreds of persons and brought down the bridge in Mokwa, Niger State, connecting Northern Nigeria with the southwestern part of the country.

The bridge that collapsed last Wednesday has disrupted human and vehicular movements around the Mokwa Bridge, with petroleum product trucks not left out.

Although the death toll from the Mokwa, Niger, flood remained controversial, the Niger State Emergency Management Agency and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) reported 153, but community members had suggested a higher death toll.

Speaking on the effect of the bridge collapse, senior officials at MRS and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited filling stations in Abuja hinted that the collapsed Mokwa Bridge may result in petroleum product scarcity during the 2025 Eid al-Adha (Sallah) celebration and holidays slated for June 6th and 9th.

An MRS official, who preferred anonymity, told DAILY POST that the development may disrupt distribution.

He, however, ensured that the petrol price would remain at N895 per litre during the Sallah break.

“Most of the petrol trucks are stranded due to the Mokwa Niger State bridge collapse.

“Honestly, I foresee fuel scarcity in Abuja and some parts of Northern Nigeria.

“I hope the government fixes the bridge on time, as our trucks had already made a u-turn, which is more expensive and time-consuming,” he told DAILY POST.

Another source at NNPCL agreed with the official at MRS, noting that the development may lead to fuel scarcity if adequate supply does not come from other routes such as Port Harcourt and Warri.

DAILY POST reports that Dangote Refinery, Nigeria’s only domestic producer of petroleum, is located in Lekki, Lagos State. Mokwa Bridge is the easiest route to Abuja and Northern Nigeria.

Reacting to the development, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association, Billy Gillis-Harry, and the National Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, James Tor, gave DAILY POST a very different perspective.

On his part, Gillis-Harry assured that its members would ensure an adequate supply of petrol from alternative sources and routes in Port Harcourt, Rivers, and Delta States to Abuja and across Nigeria.

According to him, there would be an adequate petrol supply throughout this year’s Eid al-Adha.

“One or two companies’ experiences in Abuja will not bring scarcity of petrol supply in Abuja and Nigeria.

“Our members will work with 11 PLC and Matrix to get supply from Port Harcout, Rivers and Delta states.

“The only thing is the transportation turnaround time.

“Our members will do their best to make sure fuel supply is available across the country during the Sallah.

“There should not be scarcity because we have alternatives,” he told DAILY POST.

However, Tor said the Mokwa Bridge collapse may lead to fuel supply shortages in Abuja and northern states.

He urged the federal government to quickly fix the collapsed bridge or resuscitate an alternative route to avert a possible looming fuel scarcity during the Eid al-Adha.

“The federal government needs to be proactive so that the other route is put into use for free vehicular and human movement across the regions.

“The Mokwa Bridge collapse will affect the free flow of supply.

“This will cause shortages. The unfortunate thing is that Salah is around the corner,” he told DAILY POST.

DAILY POST reports that the development comes as NNPCL, Dangote Refinery, and partners recently announced the latest reduction in the price of petrol to between N875 per litre and N910 per litre in Lagos and Abuja.

On Monday, the Nigerian government declared Friday, June 6, and Monday, June 9, as public holidays to mark this year’s Eid al-Adha.

[DailyPost]

The Federal Government must spend about N880bn annually for the maintenance of the federal road network nationwide, the Minister of State for Works, Mohammed Goroyo, declared on Monday.

This came as the Managing Director of the Federal Road Maintenance Agency, Chukwuemeka Abbasi, disclosed that the template for deducting the road user charge from the prices of petrol and diesel was never implemented by the defunct Petroleum Product Pricing Regulatory Authority, now the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

The two government officials spoke in Abuja at an investigative hearing of the House of Representatives Ad-Hoc Committee. The committee is investigating the implementation and remittances of the five per cent user charge for road maintenance under the Federal Road Maintenance Agency.

Speaking at the event, Goroyo said, “FERMA requires an estimated N880bn annually for optimal road conditions. Budgetary allocations have consistently fallen short—N76.3bn in 2023, N103.3bn in 2024, while N168.9bn was budgeted for 2025.

“Though these figures show gradual increases, they remain far below the necessary threshold for sustainable road maintenance. This persistent funding gap has forced FERMA into a reactive mode of maintenance rather than a preventive approach.

“The consequences of this are glaring-deteriorating road conditions, increased repair costs, and prolonged disruptions for commuters and businesses alike.

A proactive strategy, backed by adequate funding, is essential to ensure smooth, safe, and efficient roadways nationwide.

“Thus, the diligent implementation and timely remittance of the five per cent user charge are paramount. This dedicated funding stream offers a viable solution to bridge the financial gap, providing consistent resources to address Nigeria’s infrastructure needs without over-reliance on annual budget appropriations.”

He added that inadequate funding has been the major bane of the nation’s road infrastructure, stressing that even though the user charge was supposed to address the gap, the agency and the Ministry have not been able to access it.

On his part, the FERMA boss said, “Under the visionary leadership of President Bola Tinubu, the Federal Ministry of Works remains steadfast in the Renewed Hope Agenda, an agenda dedicated to delivering world-class infrastructure that fosters economic growth, strengthens connectivity, and enhances the daily lives of our citizens.

“Our roads are the lifelines of commerce and social integration, and their maintenance is not merely a policy directive but a national imperative. The five per cent user charge, as enshrined in the FERMA Act, was designed to serve as a sustainable funding mechanism for road maintenance and rehabilitation. However, for years, FERMA has grappled with severe funding inadequacies, hampering its ability to maintain our vast road network effectively.”

Declaring the event open, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, recalled that the House had on 19th March considered a motion at plenary revealing the non-implementation of remittance of the five per cent user charge on petroleum products meant for road maintenance under the FERMA Amendment Act, 2007.

He said, “We owe Nigerians the obligation by sections 88 and 89 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended) to conduct a comprehensive investigation into the status of the five per cent user charge to determine the extent of the violation of the law and the amount of money unremitted and those responsible for the non-implementation.”

He stressed that the investigative hearing should also be able to make strong recommendations on how to forestall further abuse of the law and streamline the remittance processes for ease of access to the funds by the relevant government agencies.

The Chairman of the Committee, who doubles as the Chairman, House Committee on Rules and Business, Francis Waive, said the user charge is not an attempt to increase the prices of petroleum products or to amend the law since it has been part of the law since 2007.

He added that the purpose of the investigation is to address the anomalies existing through disobedience to existing laws, adding that the House will ensure that every law passed by the parliament is complied with both by individuals and agencies of government.

[Punch]

 “Trouble will come, but you do not have to give it a chair to sit on.”- African proverb

Sadly the nation is being forced to watch a fierce and diversionary quarrel over the 2027 elections with just a little under two years to get there. Just see how the Tinubu administration is scraping the shallow bottom of a dented bottom to fish out palliatives and promises and attempting to sell them as achievements in two years. The main opposition is going crazy over what it claims is an engineered exodus. Other politicians are attempting to cobble together another vessel of egos and  personal ambitions. The nation watches a desperate frenzy over its troubled future. A people watch, with dejection and anger, as politicians expose the lie that Nigerian democracy is about the people.

 With two years to go, the general game plan, if indeed there is one, appears to be to defeat the opposition before the contest commences. APC has turned transactional politics into a grand strategy with a limited goal of mopping up all opportunists. It is the favourite destination for all comers, and those who migrate with a few PDP and LP skulls get choice places, at least for now. PDP screams victimization, hoping the nation will ignore its record in serial self-mutilation. There is nothing of substance in the firmaments, except political skeletons speaking volumes of politicians in a country where power is most addictive. This current picture will change and mutate as politicians play their games and Nigerian voters make up their minds. The journey to 2027 will be eventful and challenging for Nigerians.

 The APC appears bent on boosting its appearance only with booty from an anaemic opposition. It has been stampeded into a battle it has no business fighting, with two years of tough governance to go. It has sole responsibility for showing an impressive scorecard while fighting off an opposition sharpening its knives daily with a litany of governance failures. It is making elementary mistakes, including a seeming arrogance over its records; sustaining persistently poor engagement processes; faulty assumptions that feeding on the opposition alone will give it the strength to fight and win the election; creating the most personalized presidency which has every circle of power trembling, and ignoring the widespread perception that it is elevating transactional politics into the highest art form. Its biggest liability is a President who has very poor rating in most parts of the country.

 The ruling party could boost its chances if it does not field President Tinubu in 2027, choosing instead to field a younger, healthier and more ambitious politician with fairly clean personal records. This seems very unlikely, such is the larger-than-life presence of President Tinubu in the party. The President himself may not give the idea of grooming a successor and giving his party a new lease of life a favourable thought. If PBAT will be its candidate, the APC has to improve its understanding and exploitation of fault lines into which it will need to pour unheard-of fortunes to buy votes and voters. Ditching northern Muslims for northern Christians will be a risky strategy, but quite possibly the only option in the North. The party is also a poor student in reading the dynamics of opportunistic and transactional politics. Its bursting haul of politicians will be a major threat to its ambition if it fails to appreciate the complexities of managing ambitions and sharing largesse among politicians solely motivated by personal interests. Its assets could become its liabilities at precisely the point where neither transaction nor threat will work.

 The North will have a major influence in the outcome of the elections. It is the region that is most vulnerable to exploitation of fault lines and its poverty which trails it all the way to polling booths. The party must work hard to avoid a repeat of 2015 when the ruling party confronted an entire region massed against it. The South West will rally around him marginally if the main opposition fields a Northerner against him, but the ambivalence of this region should cause sleepless nights. The influence of Chief Spoiler Wike will weaken or grow, depending on the opposition’s response to the disarray in the South-South which will likely stabilize around its basic interests, not of an affluent appendage. LP will be decimated without Obi, and squeezed even further with him as its candidate. Obi’s ambition is now bigger than the LP, but he risks serious reduction as a politician if he takes decisions that alienate his followers. Of all the major politicians, none is more a captive of his core constituency than Obi. The South East is eager to recover from its multi-dimensional personality and assume a position in national leadership which reflects its passion for equity. It is likely to be available for a deal which gives it real power, and puts an end to a perennial sulking region on the margins.

 Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar seems to have the biggest dilemma. He is too weak to take on Tinubu’s second term ambitions, and too big to fit into schemes of other politicians angling for platforms that will actualize their personal ambitions. To leave the PDP (again) and seek a platform elsewhere will involve massive expenditure in energy and resources, assets that will be possessed in greater abundance in camps of those who will resist him as candidate. He could renounce the ambition to run (again) and engineer a reverse stampede into the PDP, as well as spearhead a Nigerian political re-engineering process. Politicians in the mold of the Waziri are very difficult to convince that there are edifying options to aspiring to be President in a country stuck with recycling its politicians.

The PDP is bleeding from massive onslaught of the governing party. Its biggest asset is Atiku, but he is also its biggest liability. His pre-eminent position in the party provides a reason for many real and contrived grievances. It is unlikely that PDP, with Atiku at the helm, will enter into an arrangement that gives it a role as second fiddle. Other parties could join PDP in a coalition of sorts, but some of them could ask for his ambition as a price. If the PDP could fix itself and take on the APC, it would not have bothered  with pandering to interests that are at worst dubious, and at best delusional. This party that once bestrode the nation is at risk of history recording it as the largest contributor to APC’s success in 2027.

 There are, of course, many other factors that will determine the outcome of the 2027 elections. The terrain is also liable to change dramatically when other key factors enter the fray, and calculations fail to provide the correct outcomes. A few of the factors that will sustain their value, however, will remain significant. First, the perceptions of the record of the APC administration, which still has almost two years to go will be a critical factor. Second, the nature and resilience of the opposition will be decisive. Third, geo-politics and identity politics will still be strong. Four, integrity of the elections is central. The disturbing encroachment of the executive arm of government’s influence into all in arms and institutions of governance must be curtailed if democracy is to survive in Nigeria. At all cost, the 2027 elections must be credible.