One of the expectations of column writing is that it will not just advance the journalistic goals of educating, informing and entertaining the society, but also serve as a watchdog for both the government and the governed. This role of surveillance to check developments that could tear the society apart is, probably, the most important of all the expectations from both professional and occupational journalists, especially in a developing country like Nigeria.

Trouble has a habit of sleeping until rudely stirred. Only those who have never really experienced anarchy or war talk glibly about the deployment of violence to advance any cause. Anyone who has ever truly participated in protest marches in the real tradition of grievance ventilation knows that there is a world of difference between a march for a cause and a march on a city.

If you have ever been in the trenches as some of us have, you won’t have any problem drawing a line: Thus far and not an inch further!

Protests Legitimate

For the avoidance of doubt, protests are legitimate. We all have a right to demonstrate against anything we consider inimical to our wellbeing. It is a fundamental human right; no less. It has been said over and over again that President Tinubu himself was a veteran protester both during military rule and the current 4th Republic. Having enjoyed that fundamental right, he shouldn’t be seen denying others of the same entitlement.

The president’s men say that he believes in allowing people to express themselves as long as that can be done peacefully. In other words, the authorities want the protesters to note the undercurrents attending this intended demonstration which point to the fact that some other agenda — notably regime change — is already being smuggled into the mix by fifth columnists and opposition elements with partisan political agenda.

Speaking when he received the new US ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Richard Mille Jr, President Tinubu acknowledged his past role as a notable protester: ”During the military era, we made our voices heard against dictatorship, and I was part of the group that engaged in peaceful protests without resorting to the destruction of property. As much as we believe that demonstrations are part of democracy, we will never encourage any protests that lead to the destruction of lives and property.”

There is ample evidence on social media that some groups, with violence as their main weapon, are battle ready to cause mayhem under the pretext of the #EndBadGovernance protest. Their online meetings have been freely circulated, perhaps to encourage fence sitters to join in. If their words are to be taken seriously — and there’s no reason why not— they are primed for violence. Many of the instigators are overseas but they have pledged to foot the bill of the proposed insurrection.

Civilian Coup

One of the arrogant rabble-rousers in an online meeting actually boasted that by the time they are through with the insurrection, they would have got rid of the democratic dispensation and installed a ‘clean and politically neutral’ leader in the country — a civilian coup!

Now, no government in the world will sit idly by while a group of disgruntled people plan its forceful exit through the instrumentality of anarchy.

A protest is a far cry from a riot. When a civil protest is infiltrated by faceless war mongers, the protesters themselves are in danger of being caught in the crossfire. Considering that the key conveners of the proposed August days of rage are not known, unlike the situation in ‘normal’ demonstrations where the leaders and their agenda are well advertised, many social media influencers who had earlier signed on, have now withdrawn their participation.

Fears have been expressed that if the protest is allowed to degenerate to the anarchical level of the #ENDSARS campaign in which criminal elements hijacked what had started out as a beautiful celebration of the culture of civil resistance, Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos, will be further reduced to a modern jungle of ruins after the billion dollar damages inflicted on the city in the earlier demonstration from which it is yet to fully recover.

Ethnic Baiting

Then there is palpable evidence of ethnic baiting in comments made by those in favour of the protest and those against. As usual in such situations in Nigeria, some groups of people have already been marked down by their political opponents in the event that the handshake goes beyond the elbow. Mark my words, if push turns to shove, we shall be dealing with cases of ethno-religious cleansing in some parts of the country.

I don’t find the announcement of an ‘Oro’ cult festival  intended to ‘cleanse the land’ on exactly the same dates as the planned protests funny at all. When ‘Oro’ eats, there are no leftovers. Remember the case of Alfa Bisiriyu Apalara (1918-1953), a fiery Islamic preacher who clashed with the Oro cult in Lagos in the early 1950s? He suddenly disappeared. To this day, the cleric’s body has never been found, although the authorities used circumstantial evidence to convict and hang the 11 perpetrators of the crime.

Anything that will make society regress to such savage means of silencing opponents should not thrill any rational human being. Unfortunately, we seem to find it all theatrical, even hilarious. But I insist that we must not give room to such developments because they are designed to rend the cord of amity between man and fellow man.

In their bid to find a deeper meaning in their planned protest, some of the identifiable activists supporting the demonstration have declared that it is not just another protest but a revolution! Former presidential candidate Omoyele Sowore is of that persuasion. My dictionary defines ‘revolution’ as, “A forcible overthrow of a government or social order, in favour of a new system.” I am not sure that a democrat will want to take power by force as a preferred alternative to the ballot box.

Those advocating Kenya-style perpetual sit-out protests make the mistake of wrong equivalency. The lizard and the crocodile may both be reptiles but, whereas one is a staff sergeant, the other is an admiral. There are many things to admire and learn from the Kenyan protests just as there were many lessons from the last #ENDSARS protests in Nigeria. But you can’t transplant one into the other. Each clime with its own spirit and vibes and peccadilloes. If I may borrow a line from Afrobeat superstar Asake, “Ogogoro no be Vodka!”

Combustible

There is so much tension caused by economic hardship in Nigeria at the moment that many people are just one inch away from blowing a fuse. If any kind of anarchy is added to the mix, you’re going to have a really combustible situation that could easily degenerate into mini gang warfares or full scale tribal wars.

To douse tension, the president has been consulting widely and massively publicising measures already taken by the government to address the concerns of the youthful protesters. Traditional rulers, religious leaders, political bigwigs and captains of industry have added their voices to appeal to the protesters to cancel the protest so as not to start what they may not be in a position to finish.

‘Revolutionary’ images from other lands, featuring fire-spitting youthful leaders and clips of internally displaced people may look fascinating because they’re from afar. If those images reflect our local circumstances, there may not even be a columnist to write about it. That is why I have taken the liberty to adapt Gil Scott-Heron’s song as a melody and prayer: This revolution shall not be televised.

Hours after Inspector General of Police Kayode Egbetokun issued guidelines for the planned nationwide #EndBadGovernance protest scheduled for August 1, opposition parties have kicked against the conditions, saying they are against Nigeria’s constitution.

They insisted that the right to protest is recognised as a fundamental human right in Nigeria and is protected by the constitution.

Egbetokun had in response to requests to protest across the country set guidelines for all organisers and groups planning to participate.

He specifically directed them to submit their details, proposed routes, and assembly points to the Commissioners of Police in their respective states. 

The IG also said commissioners of police in states where protests would be held must be provided with details of measures put in place to prevent the demonstration from being hijacked by criminal elements.

The police chief  had earlier raised concerns about the legitimacy of the gathering, adding that arrangements had been made to arrest suspected hoodlums disguising as protesters.

The Department of State Services, on the other hand, claimed it uncovered a plan by some criminal elements to hijack the protest and cause unrest in the country.

In a statement issued on Thursday, the DSS, through its spokesperson, Peter Afunanya, described the motive behind the planned protest as political.

The Nigerian Defence Headquarters also warned intending protesters against any form of violence, stating that the right to protest did not include unleashing terror.

The Director of Defence Media Operations, Major General Edward Buba, who conveyed the message in Abuja, raised concerns that the planned nationwide protest could escalate into chaos based on the military’s analysis and intelligence.

Concentrate on protecting protesters – NNPP

Speaking exclusively with Sunday PUNCH, the National Publicity Secretary of the New Nigeria People’s Party, Ladipo Johnson, said going after protesters was a violation of their constitutional right. He said instead of clamping down on those legitimately exercising their civic rights, efforts should be made to protect them.

Johnson said, “I don’t think there is a need to clamp down on protesters. Nigerians have a right to exercise their constitutional right to protest. They should not be harassed in any way. On the other hand, protesters must do their best to ensure that the protest is not hijacked either by hoodlums or by people sent. Hoodlums are one thing, people sent by unscrupulous politicians to cause friction and mayhem are another. These people should be resisted. The police also must secure the protesters in a peaceful atmosphere and ensure they are not infiltrated by people who want to cause chaos and damage properties. That is what they should be doing, not threatening or scaring people.”

PDP not surprised by threats to gag opposition – Spokesman

Also, the Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the People’s Democratic Party, Ibrahim Abdullahi, said it was unfortunate that the presidency would be planning to use the security apparatus to intimidate its citizens.

He said, “What you see the police and the DSS doing is a prepared script. It is quite unfortunate. The attempt by the government to suppress the voices of dissent is not something we are surprised about because they had demonstrated this long before. They made it known before coming into power that they wouldn’t entertain opposition. So, what they first did was to take some persons they believed were going to have a voice and make them part of their team. Now, even after winning the election, they have not stopped. It is clear that the intention of this government is to inflict maximum pain and injury on Nigerians and suppress voices of dissent, who will probably raise objections to their approach. They have inflicted untold hardship on Nigerians. They have also gone further to ensure that fear and intimidation is the only way they would rule this country.”

Tinubu should tread carefully – LP

Similarly, the opposition Labour Party has advised the presidency and security agents to tread carefully, warning that any threat to clamp down on the people may prove counterproductive.

In an exclusive with Sunday PUNCH, the National Publicity Secretary of LP, Obiorah Ifoh, said the country should borrow a leaf from what transpired in neighbouring Kenya, and the government’s response to the people.

He said, “As a party, we are not going to support any violent protest. We are not speaking for them (protesters). But a hungry man is an angry man. These people can’t feed, transport freely, can’t even afford to send children to school and receive pittance as wages. Yet, you want them not to talk? I think that is undemocratic. We saw what happened in Kenya a few weeks ago, where people spoke their minds peacefully and the Kenyan government did the right thing. Nobody is asking for violence. Everybody that goes into violent protests should be made to pay the price. But we are insisting on allowing Nigerians to speak up their minds through peaceful means.”

Yunusa Tanko, the campaign spokesman for LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, on his part, said Nigerians deserved better treatment. The activist emphasized that it would be unfair to threaten people planning to demonstrate with arrest as protest is one of the rights provided for in a democratic setting.

Accusations against opposition insult to Nigerians – Northern CAN

The Christian Association of Nigeria in the 19 Northern states, including Abuja, says the planned nationwide hunger protests are an indication that things have gone really bad in the country. CAN insisted that Nigerians have been “suffering and smiling” for too long and the government showed no concern.

In a statement through its Secretary, Elder Sunday Oibe, in Kaduna on Saturday, the body expressed concern over the planned nationwide protest and urged the President to take concrete steps to address the economic hardship and insecurity plaguing the country. It also admonished Nigerian politicians to be mindful of their actions and inactions.

CAN recalled the ‘Occupy Nigeria’ protest held in 2012, led by President Tinubu, meant to force former President Goodluck Jonathan to retrace his steps over the removal of the petrol subsidy during his administration, and noted that those in government must acknowledge the fact that in a democracy, citizens had the right to embark on peaceful protests over issues affecting their welfare. “Rather than trying to induce and influence some religious and traditional leaders to stop the protest, as it is being speculated in certain quarters, the government should apologise for its ineptitude and failure to address challenges threatening the very foundation of the country and improve the living condition of the people. Since the removal of the subsidy on petrol by President Bola Tinubu over a year ago, Nigerians have yet to enjoy its benefits; insecurity continues to remain undermined by the Nigerian state. We call for prayers for peace, unity, and stability in our country. Pray for God’s intervention in our country,” the Northern CAN stated.

‘Security agencies harassing organisers’

Meanwhile, in a telephone interview with our correspondents, one of the organisers of the protest, Deji Adeyanju, said the IG was trying to rewrite the constitution with his directives.

The human rights activist maintained that Nigeria’s constitution conferred on citizens the right to protest.

He said, “When the constitution was conferring the right to protest on the citizens, did the constitution give conditions for protests? Is the IG trying to rewrite the constitution? Is he trying to donate rights to the citizens or what? He has no such powers. The constitution and other laws of the land do not give the IG the power to dictate how citizens should protest.”

Further speaking, Adeyanju accused security agencies of harassing organisers of the protest and freezing their accounts.

He revealed that some of them had been arrested in states like Kano, Sokoto, and Zamfara, only to be released after widespread condemnation and outcries.

The human rights activist noted that it was a tactic to intimidate them so as not to go ahead with the protest, adding that they remained resolute.

Speaking in the same vein, the Director of Mobilisation, ‘Take It Back Movement’, Damilare Adenola, emphasised that the organisers were not bound by the directives.

He said, “The constitution doesn’t mandate us to get the government’s approval for protests. With or without the minister or President’s approval, the protests will go on. We’re not bound by the dictates of the Inspector General of Police or anyone in government.

“The rule of law and our conscience are our guiding principles, and the Nigerian Constitution (1999 as amended) grants Nigerian citizens the right to peaceful assembly and peaceful demonstrations.”

Adenola alleged that aside from freezing the organisers’ accounts, social media influencers had been engaged to attack activists and those who indicated interest in the protest.

He added, “They’ve blocked the ‘Take It Back Movement’ bank account with UBA. We’ve been informed that they’re now paying social media influencers to discredit human rights activists and peaceful protesters.”

Also making his stance known on the IG directive, the Convener of the Revolution Now Movement, Mr Omoyele Sowore, on X.com, said the police could not dictate to citizens how to go about protests.

He, however, called on all security agencies to submit the names of their officers who would be deployed for the protest.

Sowore stated, “The #EndBadGovernanceInNigeria #DaysOfRage revolt is not subject to any conditions; the @PoliceNG cannot dictate to Nigerians how to organise themselves during a mass action of this magnitude. However, the IG of @Policeng is advised to submit the list of police officers that would be deployed to cover these direct actions to our lawyers so that we’d know who to hold accountable should anything go wrong; the same applies to the @OfficialDSSNG, @HQNigerianArmy, and any security agency(IRS) that may be deployed by the state or federal government of Nigeria.”

Shelve planned protest – Kwankwaso

The presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party during the 2023 election, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, said shelving the planned protest would be in the interest of the country. The one-time former governor of Kano State, in a post on his X handle on Saturday, called on Nigerians to put the country’s interest first before any other consideration. The national leader of NNPP called on Nigerians to remove a non-performing government through the ballot rather than through a protest.

Tinubu’s govt after solution, not protesters – APC

But the ruling All Progressives Congress sees the issue from another perspective.

The National Publicity Director of the APC, Bala Ibrahim, believed the response of the government was being misinterpreted.

Ibrahim stated that unless the organisers of the protest and the opposition had ulterior motives, they would appreciate that the President had even gone the extra mile to assure the citizens that he was working assiduously to address their concerns.

He said, “When you are devilish in your thinking or planning something cynical, you will believe everybody is thinking that way. There is no way a government that is doing everything with civility, and is always at the forefront for human rights, will clamp down on people fighting for their right.

“This is not a government that is brutish or brutal when it comes to lawful protests. The only thing is that a protest must be peaceful, lawful and done in a manner that is democratically accepted. Anything to the contrary will go against the law. A government that is law-abiding will not fold its arms and allow people trample on the law.

“Don’t forget that the President has appealed to the nation to shelve the demonstration, saying whatever their grievances are, it will be looked into with a view to resolving them. It is not a government that has promised to do miracles. No, it is one that seeks to ensure the sufferings of Nigerians are addressed.”

[Punch]

Lorenzo Colombo scored two first-half goals and Marco Nasti netted the game-winner to give AC Milan a 3-2 victory over English Premier League champion Manchester City on Saturday at New York.

Nasti lifted Milan ahead to stay in the 78th minute, the 20-year-old Italian striker taking a centering pass from Belgian right wing Alexis Saelemaekers and firing an inside right foot blast into the goal.

Several European sides are playing pre-season tune-ups in US venues ahead of next month’s start of their league campaigns.

Norwegian striker Erling Haaland opened the scoring for Manchester City in the 19th minute, but Italian forward Colombo answered for AC Milan in the 30th and 34th minutes to lift the Italian side ahead 2-1 at half-time at Yankee Stadium.

City equalized in the 55th minute when Manchester hometown winger Micah Hamilton crossed the ball from the left side into the box.

English striker James McAtee headed the ball into the net, setting the stage for Nasti’s decider.

At Los Angeles, Gabriel Martinelli scored for Arsenal in the 81st minute to give the Gunners a 2-1 victory over Manchester United in a friendly at SoFi Stadium.

Danish 21-year-old striker Rasmus Hojlund opened the scoring in the 10th minute for United.

Marcus Rashford lofted a clearing pass down the left wing and Hojlund took the ball and battled Arsenal defender Ayden Heaven into the box, where he got a step ahead and blasted a goal between the legs of Gunners goalkeeper Karl Hein.

Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus netted the equalizer in the 26th minute, the Brazilian tapping in a centering pass from point-blank range as the Red Devils appealed in vain for an offside call.

Martinelli, who helped Brazil to Tokyo Olympic gold, came in from the left side and flicked in a right-footed shot inside the near post to give Arsenal the winning margin.

– Celtic rip Chelsea –

Earlier, Japan’s Kyogo Furuhashi and Denmark’s Matt O’Riley scored first-half goals to power Celtic over Chelsea 4-1.

Luis Palma and Michael Johnston added second-half goals for the Glasgow side, while Christopher Nkunku averted a shutout for the Londoners with an 89th-minute penalty kick.

Celtic, who beat Man City 4-3 on Tuesday, dominated the match at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana.

Celtic seized the lead in the 19th minute on O’Riley’s left-footed blast from the right side of the box inside the far post.

An unguarded Furuhashi tapped in a left-footed shot in the 33rd minute from point-blank range off a centering pass from O’Riley to give the Scottish side a 2-0 advantage at half-time.

Honduran striker Palma boosted the lead in the 76th minute and Johnston netted the Hoops’ final goal in the 79th.

AFP

The youths plan a public protest. The land has been feverish with hunger and suffering.  The grounds for a protest can’t be more legitimate and compelling. The cost of living has become punishing.

The weak naira has pauperised everyone, and the poor have been left without hope. The new government arrived with the old cluelessness. Its mode is the boring Business As Usual.

The youths believe that besides pervasive ineptitude, the political class has been chronically aloof and wasteful. Rather than engage the youths, the political class has opted for scaremongering, delegitimisation and demonisation. The government is going for the kitchen sink.

The most troubling tactic is the equation of peaceful protest with violence. Some elders have been co-opted to warn the young not to partake in the protests because they have information that the planners of the protests want to burn the country. Even during the military regimes, students were allowed to protest. The military dictatorships, striving to be seen as humane, didn’t employ this disingenuous tactic.

If every government treated public protests as inevitably destructive then the citizens’ right to protest would have been effectively abolished long ago. It’s heart-wrenching to see politicians and former Rights activists who championed protests under the military say only ugly things about the right to protest. Their forgetfulness is painful. They are carefreely painting protesters as arsonists and vandals even before the protests have started.

 It’s been a hard watch these last few days. Security agencies have been addressing press conferences to warn protesters. Those whose duty it is to protect protesters are announcing in advance that they are incapable of performing those duties. The situation is pathetic. At these press conferences, no effort is made to give the protesters the benefit of the doubt. Almost all the security agencies have exhibited a blanket disdain for protesters. Rather than engage in this shameful and self-humiliating scaremongering, the federal government should outlaw the right to protest. In North Korea, nobody can protest. That’s a more honest path. Politicians are always slippery. So seeing self-anointed progressives eulogise the right to protest in one breath and in the next send out messages that protests will destroy the country isn’t all that shocking.  But watching noblemen sink into barefaced lying to deny the youths a voice has been unbearable.

It hasn’t stopped at scaremongering. When the government isn’t gathering and persuading traditional and religious leaders to help it delegitimise protests, it’s allowing its officials to engage in naked bigotry and divisiveness. Not long ago, a special adviser to the president pointed accusing fingers at Peter Obi and his supporters. He had no evidence. All he sought was to drive a wedge between ethnic groups to have the protests truncated. The people paid with taxpayers’ funds to promote national unity have sunk into political skulduggery. This recourse to political agbeorism may not end with fishing for advance scapegoats. It has the potential to set up a conflagration between ethnic groups if the peaceful protests are hijacked and derailed by thugs, as is being speculated.

Before this government, opposition parties used to champion or promote public protests against bad governance at the centre. In 2012, President Tinubu and his comrades led pretests against the then President Jonathan, who had partially removed fuel subsidies. Then, it was the duty of the opposition, acting as an electable alternative, to use protests to keep the ruling government in check. Today,  protests are taboo. Even opposition leaders are forbidden by bigots in the boys’ quarters of power to engage in any protests.

Nothing has been spared in this attempt to stop the protests. Now, some local priests in Lagos have announced that they will be engaging in a spiritual cleansing called Oro for 15 days. In other words, they have casually outlawed any movements in the evenings for the ten-day period the planners of the protests plan to engage in peaceful protests. The Lagos State Govt has said it wasn’t consulted. Yet, it doesn’t intend to condemn or stop the Oro priests. The Constitution explicitly states that citizens have the right to reside wherever they like and to move freely. Such a constitutional right can only be curtailed by the government in pursuit of overriding public good. The idea that some priestesses or cults can wake up and declare a part of the state out of bounds to residents at certain times without the approval of the state government is ridiculous. To employ such arbitrariness to sabotage the right of free citizens to protest against bad governance is the final descent into anarchy.

These bad precedents being laid cheerfully may seem innocuous. But once they prove effective, they will be exploited on a larger scale to destroy our democracy. It’s noteworthy that Oro is making a second ignoble entrance. During last year’s elections, it was used to scare away and disenfranchise voters who were not indigenes of Ikorodu. This time, it appears it will be used to undermine the protests. Who knows what next this cleansing process might be used to corrode? If some local priests in every town in this country can wake up and prohibit the movement of people as long as they like in the name of one religion or the other, then we are in a mess.

During the Endsars protest, some agents of that government mobilised counter-protesters with cudgels to chase and hound protesters in certain parts of the country. Janjaweed style. They called it fighting fire with fire. If those who protested against the  Obasanjo government in the early 2000s were chased away by machete-wielding thugs, all those protests that shaped our political culture during the Adams Oshiomhole NLC days wouldn’t have held. Perhaps we might have killed this protest culture many years ago. Perhaps the ruling APC might have remained in the opposition forever as the PDP had bragged.

 If our political leaders no longer believe that protests are part of the democratic culture, they should say it aloud. So that everybody can allow the country to slip into a one-party state, and we all watch peacefully to see where we will end. Since our political leaders now think that protests can never be peaceful and are inherently violent, they should outlaw protests so that the citizens can understand the boundaries of our democracy. We can help them by forgetting that the president and his party leaders led protests in the past. They need not subject themselves to this dehumanising level of hypocrisy. Senator Akpabio can arrange laws and constitutional amendments, like fast food. The governors run the state legislatures like rubber stamps. So they can help with a lightning constitutional alteration.  We can quickly amend the constitution and repeal the right to protest until further notice. That is more honest than the scaremongering, shameless witch-hunting, and the bastardisation of a cleansing process like Oro.

The International Testing Agency (ITA) has handed Cynthia Ogunsemilore, Nigeria’s boxer, a provisional suspension for testing positive for a banned substance ahead of her opening fight at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

In a statement in the early hours of Sunday, ITA said Ogunsemilore tested positive for furosemide in an out-of-competition doping test collected on Thursday.

Furosemide belongs to a group of medicines called loop diuretics (also known as water pills). The substance is given to help treat fluid retention (edema) and swelling that is caused by congestive heart failure, liver disease, kidney disease, or other medical conditions.

Furosemide is included on the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) on its prohibited list. The drug is categorised as a diuretic and a masking agent, which can prevent the detection of other performance-enhancing substances.

“The athlete has been informed of the case and has been provisionally suspended until the resolution of the matter in line with the World Anti-Doping Code and the International Olympic Committee Anti-Doping Rules,” the statement reads.

“This means that the athlete is prevented from competing, training, coaching, or participating in any activity, during the Olympic Games Paris 2024.

“The athlete has the right to challenge the imposition of the provisional suspension before the Court of Arbitration for Sport – Anti-Doping Division. The athlete also has the right to request the analysis of the B-sample.”

Ogunsemilore was due to face Taiwan’s Wu Shih Yi in a round-of-16 bout on Tuesday.

The development reduced the Nigerian boxing contingent to one after Dolapo Omole pulled out of the Games due to injuries.

[TheCable]

A frica’s prime moneyman, Mr. Aliko Dangote of Nigeria, has recently changed from business suit and kaftan to battle fatigue. For a man whose visibility is defined by money and huge investments, this sudden change of costume is important. Ordinarily, Dangote as a person and a brand has become synonymous with huge factories and countless trucks traversing different African countries bearing the products of his factories. A big business man can make rowdy media appearances to project his presence and market his enterprises in urbane gatherings of politicians and business elite.

As a rule, Mr. Dangote steers clear of contentious utterances and controversial gatherings. But he gets occasionally dragged into dog fights over turfs and market shares for his products. His instincts may not be overtly political nor is he the controversial  type. Of course he cannot but contend with the toxic terrain of Nigerian politics especially the seasonal uproar of partisan fray and name calling. There is always the silent question: “who does Dangote support”, a question that no one can answer easily. 

The man sees his main business as minding his business. His political footprints remain hazy just as his political footsteps are often muted. A few years back when the Obasanjo presidency was scouting for a successor to the bullish general, some PDP political big wigs sent emissaries to Dangote to see if he would want to play Berlusconi. The man turned them down.

In recent days however, the troubling Nigerian situation is revealing a different Dangote. As it turns out, the man can fight to defend his space and interests: “I have been a fighter all my life. So, I am not afraid of fights nor am I afraid of anyone…” On the matters thrown up by Nigeria’s recent economic trends and travails, Dangote is beginning to make his views known and his interests clearly defined. This is not his first turf fight. He dueled with his fellow Kano man, Abdul Samad Rabiu of BUA cement over cement market share and retail prices. Similarly, he fought the Kogi State government on taxation and land rights issues over his massive Obajana cement factory.

In the last few days, Mr. Dangote could be seen as having jettisoned  a business suit and kaftan to literally don a battle fatigue. He is in a fighting mood. Not only that, he has jumped into the murky trench of Nigeria’s public discourse. He now wants to be heard on the happenings in his country. And why not? Dangote is first and foremost a citizen of the federal republic of Nigeria. He is entitled to his views and to a perspective on the state of the nation especially the economy in which he, more than anyone else, is deeply invested. As a major investor and strategic economic driver, Mr. Dangote should know where the Nigerian economic shoe is pinching most painfully. If the Nigerian economic cookie crumbles, Dangote and his bankers are more likely to be burnt beyond recognition. The rest of us are not likely to go walk off with slight bruises because of our dependency on one Dangote product or the other. If an economic  tsunami hits the Dangote brand and its expansive network of enterprises, the Nigerian economy is likely to take a major hit. Such a consequential citizen cannot remain silent if he sees his interests threatened by government’s rough manners.

So, it is understandable that Dangote is presently in the trench of public discourse. He is firing  in feverish defense of not only his business interests but also the fate, fortunes and future of his fellow oligarchs who are all embroiled in the mess in the Nigerian economy.  When politicians roughen the economic landscape, it is often the oligarchs with huge stakes in the economy who bear the brunt.

Initially, Dangote chose to take on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy somersaults and endless tinkering with major indices in the troubled economy. In particular, the astronomical interest rates that keep going higher every week has troubled major players in the economy. Dangote had cause to openly criticize the rising interest rates. He was unequivocal,  insisting that the  high rate is antithetical to economic recovery and growth: “ Nobody can create jobs with an interest rate of 30 percent.” He went further to argue that the national economy cannot recover let alone grow in such a high interest  rate environment. Criticisms of the incumbent government’s economic policies  can be expected to come from regular boardroom spokespersons and textbook professional economists. But coming from a pivotal oligarch and consequential economic factor like Dangote, some are likely to sniff politics in what is ordinarily an honest business advisory. Moreso, Dangote has featured in every economy-related committee that President has hurriedly put together to help make sense of the economic mess he is confronted with. The junction where politics and economics meet and mix is a very dark place. Honest commentators can be lost there if they are not careful.

By far the most consequential battles in Dangote’s new costume is the series of exchanges between him and the Nigerian oil industry mafia. In the run up to the roll out of the products of the new Dangote mega refinery, all manner of Mickey Mouse debates have erupted. First is the controversy over the appropriate pricing of the anticipated products and their comparative quality. The regulatory agency, the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has implicitly said that the quality of diesel from the Dangote refinery may be substandard. No complaint has come from consumers of the product so far. There has also not been a laboratory verification of the products from the Dangote refinery. Interestingly, the association of fuel importers has joined the regulator in questioning the quality of the products from the new refinery, including even the gasoline that is yet to become available at the pumps. Clearly, some vested interests are threatened by the imminent reduction or eventual elimination of fuel imports once the Dangote refinery goes into full steam production.

In even nastier segments of the verbal brawl , Mr. Dangote has alleged that officials of the NNPCL may have established blending plants for petroleum products in off shore locations like Malta to sustain their unrestricted importation of petroleum products into Nigeria. In rapid response, the leadership of the NNPCL  has denied the charge of off- shore blending plants owned by their staff. The NNPCL chief executive has not however denied the existence of such plants in Malta or anywhere near the route to Nigeria. He is more concerned with exonerating his staff from Dangote’s charge.

However, latest figures from international energy trading platforms indicate that there has been a 43-fold increase in the volume of petroleum products imported into Nigeria from Malta. In fact, there has been a 342% increase in in such imports in 2023 with a value of $2.08 billion. Therefore in spite of feverish denials by the NNPCL leadership that their staff do not own blending plants in Malta, the volume of imports of petroleum products from Malta to Nigeria raise questions that support the kernel of Mr. Dangote’s allegations.

The back and forth on the relationship  between the NNPCL and Dangote over the new refinery has gone into previously unknown areas like equity holding in the ownership of the refinery. While the public was previously made to believe that the federal government through the NNPCL held an equity of 20% in the Dangote refinery, it has come from Dangote that the refinery has paid up substantially on the government’s equity down to around 7% now and no more.

Worried by what he considers an outright intent of the management of the NNPCL to undermine the new refinery, Dangote has offered to sell off the huge refinery to the NNPCL if they can pay him off. The implied nuance of that challenge is that the refinery will go down the way of government owned refineries which have crippled domestic fuel supply for over 40 years. “Let them(NNPCL) buy me out and run the refinery the best way they can. They have labelled me a monopolist…That is an incorrect and unfair allegation, but it’s okay. If they buy me out, at least their so-called monopolist would be out of the way.”

Curiously, the attacks on the Dangote refinery were not raised while the factory was under construction. They were not raised all the time that the NNPCL was touted as a 20% equity holder in the refinery project. Now that the refinery is about to threaten the continued importation of petroleum products, the regulators have joined forces with the fuel import and fuel subsidy cartel that have joined forces to sack the Nigerian treasury.

The ongoing nasty brawl between Mr. Dangote and the Nigerian  oil industry mafia anchored in the NNPCL is more than casual. It raises far reaching fundamental issues on our national economy and the forces that have kept us mired in stasis. The prospect that the Dangote refinery would end the four decades long regime of fuel imports has unsettled vested interests.

The cartels that have feasted on massive fuel imports over the years are indeed powerful. In collaboration with their cohorts in the NNPCL, this mafia has grounded all government owned refineries and enthroned the regime of fuel  imports and subsidy whose removal has ground the economy to a halt.  All available statistics indicate that with the Dangote refinery coming into full steam operation, Nigeria will virtually cease to be an importer of finished petroleum products, a feat that only Algeria and Libya have achieved.

In addition to becoming self -sufficient in petroleum products, the Dangote refinery is billed to become an exporter of petroleum products to other African countries, saving us much needed foreign exchange. Because of its size and sophistication the Dangote refinery is projected to compete favourably against refineries in Europe some of which currently export products to Nigeria.

In a sense then, the nasty exchanges between Dangote and the high priests of the Nigerian oil and gas establishment is also a battle over economic nationalism versus a long- standing dependency on external sources for petroleum products. This is a confrontation in which self -sufficiency and nationalism hold a clear advantage at this point in time. Dangote’s corporate interest now happens to coincide with an overriding national interest and we have no choice than to side with our nation’s best enlightened interest.

The contention by the regulators that the coming on stream of the Dangote refinery implies the empowerment of a monopoly in the making is neither here nor there. What ought to concern the regulators is the quality and pricing of the products of the refinery. The monopoly-like situation has been created by the ineptitude of the NNPCL which has grounded all our refineries for decades. It is better to have a monopoly that saves us foreign exchange, employs many Nigerians, guarantees steady supply of petroleum products and dampens prices over time.

It is only proper that government empowers and emboldens domestic capital to assume the commanding heights of the economy as has happened in other free market economies that have grown to lead the world. The United States was built by a few bold leading capitalist pioneers of industry like the Rockefellers, the Fords, Duponts, Vanderbilt, J.P Morgan, Carnegie etc. In South Korea, it was the deliberate empowerment of the Cherbols- Samsung, Goldster (LG) and Hyundai that launched the country into the age of modern prosperity.

In the Nigerian context, Dangote has been in the forefront of patriotic capitalism.

Over the decades, Dangote has become the most consequential domestic investor and brand in Nigeria. With some of the biggest and productive industries in major daily needs like cement, tomato puree, salt, fertilizer, flour and now petroleum products, Dangote has become a strategic brand with a domineering presence and footprint all over the Nigerian economic space. Beyond the Nigerian space, Dangote has become a major investor in a number of African countries with cement factories located in these countries. Symbolically, while the NNPCL was busy de-marketing the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, Mr. Dangote was being given a red carpet reception in Gabon where the president was literally inviting Mr. Dangote to come and invest in his country. The subtle message is that Nigeria does not seem to value its own citizens as investors. If a huge investor like Dangote can be harassed by our own officialdom, what happens to smaller investors? What message are we sending out to the external investors that our governments spend a fortune traveling round the world to court and attract?  

In fairness to Mr. Dangote, he does not have to be so massively invested in large industries in Nigeria. He could have spared himself the headache of the “luggage economy of factories, machinery, nuts, bolts , brick and mortar  and huge industrial complexes and vast real estate. He could have simply remained a money changer, using his access to authorities to round -tripping foreign exchange through Nigeria’s porous banking system. But he has chosen to build huge factories, to produce the basic everyday goods that most Nigerians need, to provide employment to many Nigerians directly and indirectly  and carry the risk of running factories that depend on our unreliable power system, treacherous security and decrepit infrastructure. For all this, Mr. Dangote deserves better than the distractions and insults now coming from the NNPCL based  oil and gas mafia and their political enablers.

By coming out upfront to engage Mr. Dangote in this disgraceful exchange over a refinery that is yet to become fully operational, the oil and gas regulators in Nigeria have exposed a major source of Nigeria’s backwardness.  The regulators are the face of our vampire deep state which uses bureaucratic blackmail and corrupt vested interest to sabotage most patriotic and progressive initiatives.

The government should bring its gravity to halt this ugly exchange. We need to protect the Dangote refinery and indeed the image of Mr. Dangote as Nigeria’s most consequential local investor. To keep silent and allow this infamy to proceed any further is to lend weight to speculations that Mr. Dangote may be paying for some unstated political sin. In matters of national interest and national economic survival, some considerations are higher than narrow partisanship and dark machinations anchored on the selfish interests of the high and mighty.

Nigerians have been invited to troop to the streets in their millions from Thursday, August 1, to protest the harsh economic situation following the dramatic rise in the cost of living in the last one year. The protest is slated to last for two weeks. The demands are not very clear yet but the theme is centred on the hunger in the land. In just one year, diesel price doubled, petrol price tripled, official exchange rates tripled and “Band A” electricity tariffs tripled. Prices of foodstuffs and medicines have doubled or tripled or even quadrupled. This is by a distance one of the worst cost of living crises in the history of Nigeria — and, trust me, we have had quite a history in the last four decades.

I suspect that the inspiration for the planned protest came from Kenya, where citizens trooped to the streets to oppose proposed tax rises. Not surprisingly, the mass action became violent and 40 protesters lost their lives, with hundreds injured. Although President William Ruto — who had incredibly proposed to tax bread (who does that?) — beat a retreat and made concessions, protesters have refused to vacate the streets. They are now demanding that he should resign. At this point, he would think his political opponents are behind the protest. Even if they are not the ones instigating it, Ruto wilfully played into their hands. You can’t blame politicians for playing politics.

The jittery reaction from the Nigerian authorities to the impending protest is understandable. Our current leaders were specialists in protests in their previous lives. We shouldn’t expect them to eagerly drink from their own medicine. They know the political implications of mass action. More so, millions of Nigerians need no incentive to protest. If the one kilo of beans they bought at N651 in June 2023 is now N2,290, they don’t have to be PDP members or Obidients to protest. If the medicine they bought at N8,000 is now N35,000, they can hardly resist shouts of “aluta”. And if they have lost their jobs as a result of company shutdowns, “solidarity forever” will be music to their ears.

The reaction of the federal government has been more about a possible political hijack of the protests. Again, can you blame politicians for hijacking genuine agitation? I have lived long enough to witness such things in Nigeria. The founders of APC, the current ruling party, did a great job of instigating protests against PDP administrations in the past — and there is no way we would forget what happened in January 2012 when President Goodluck Jonathan tried to end fuel subsidy but was met with stiff resistance via “Occupy Ojota”, fully supported by opposition parties bent on unseating him. I do not blame either APC or PDP for playing politics. Politicians must necessarily politick.

I would also say President Bola Tinubu has done enough to incur the wrath of those who may want to join or sponsor protests against him. I don’t think we need to go to Harvard to study that. Many Nigerians, including those who didn’t vote for him, were ready to give him a benefit of the doubt when he was inaugurated in May 2023 but he mismanaged the honeymoon in no time — what with the famed 100-vehicle stunt in Lagos ahead of Eid al-Adha and the Dubai jamboree under the guise of COP23. The size of his cabinet at a time of austerity was such a slap on the face for Nigerians. He lost many people in the process. Nobody needs to send them an invitation letter to join the protest.

Politically, many Nigerians whose candidates lost the presidential election are yet to get over what hit them. They have a natural motivation to support the protest. Some have never accepted him as president in any case, so things like this will excite them. To complicate things, Tinubu’s pattern of appointments has clearly and unashamedly favoured his own part of the country, particularly Lagos state, as well as his loyalists. Those elsewhere who supported him one way or the other are thus motivated to work with his enemies to pull him down. It is rational political behaviour. In reality, nobody goes into politics for God’s sake. Self-interest is a major factor. It is the nature of politics.

Where do I stand? Peaceful protests are good for the health of democracy. Social action and citizen engagement are critical to the growth of democracy. Freedom of expression is core to democracy. That is why some of us prefer democracy to military rule any day. The beauty of democracy is not just “one person, one vote” but the voice it gives us after we have exercised our suffrage. Democracy will never grow if all we do is vote and retreat to our cocoons. Democracy is suffering body blows globally, no doubt, but the Nigerian situation is all the more worrisome because of the huge gap between the people and the leaders. “Them bellyful but we hungry” — as Bob Marley once said.

But while I propose that civic engagement must improve significantly, I have my worries. The protest can be hijacked. #EndSARS became #EndBuhari and #EndNigeria as some people sneaked in their own narrow agenda and unprecedented arson was unleashed on Lagos. Two, the duration of a protest can become a problem. I have observed, for decades, that the longer a protest lasts, the higher the possibility of hijack by hoodlums, anarchists, security agencies, and, lately, fifth columnists providing refreshments. Conversely, fatigue can set in when a public protest is going on for too long. We saw this with the sit-at-home action against the annulment of the June 12 election in 1993.

That said, I must now add that while protests and civic engagement are not out of order, they are not going to solve our economic problems. We are in deep trouble. There is no soothing way of putting it. We are literally living on borrowed time. As we say in Pidgin, “water don pass garri”. This problem did not start today, or yesterday, and will not be resolved today or tomorrow. No matter the fantasies we have built in our heads, Nigeria is in a mess. We used to paper over the cracks because we were earning fat petrodollars but we have so overstretched our luck that there is no wriggle room left. We are hopelessly dependent on imports while exporting all but one product: oil. We are in soup.

The current crisis started around 2014 when oil revenue started going down owing to two factors: falling production and falling prices. Call that double whammy. Onshore oil production, where Nigeria owns 55-60 percent of the joint ventures, was taking a hit from militancy, pipeline vandalism, host community restiveness, and theft. The oil companies started weighing their options. To worsen matters, we proposed a petroleum industry law in 2008 that remained comatose in the National Assembly for over a decade. Investors, unsure of what fiscal laws would govern their investments, held back their money. All these factors combined to reduce our production capacity. That is a fact.

It should be a thing of shame that a country that used to produce 2.4 million barrels of oil per day in the 1970s, when our population was about 70 million, is now producing 1.3 million when the population is over 200 million. Do the math. It just shows how unserious we have been all our lives. We managed to hit 2.2 million again less than 20 years ago, but we have been going down since then — and to think this is the source of our livelihood! With production dropping and oil exports retreating, our forex inflows logically went south, but we kept ballooning expenditure with unsustainable subsidies, even pledging future oil output as payment guarantee for urgent imports.

We needed to have made the necessary adjustments long ago, perhaps as far back as 2015, but we kept postponing the evil day. With no significant inflow, we started rationing the forex and printing naira recklessly to sustain our local expenditure, much of which was wasted or stolen. We kept petrol price ridiculously low “to protect the poor” who are now ultimately paying the price, literally. Ways and means that was about N50 billion a decade ago accumulated to over N20 trillion in a few years, further destroying the value of the naira, pumping up inflation and impoverishing the people. The economic crisis was inevitable and there is no easy way out. We are only reaping what we sowed.

Unfortunately, Tinubu did not help matters with the haphazard way he has implanted, or implemented, the reforms. The manner he announced subsidy removal showed clearly that he was going to be an unsympathetic undertaker. Basic things that should have been in place before such a major policy pronouncement — such as the CNG conversion initiative — were missing. While we were at it, we watched helplessly as the naira crashed under a poorly conceived exchange rate policy. For an import-dependent (or “export-deficient” — to be politically correct) country, it was going to be nothing short of Armageddon. “Band A” electricity tariffs were also tripled at one blow.

Public finance was all but dead when Tinubu took over. But he has been too brutal with his surgery-without-anaesthesia. When prices of food and medicines were on the rise last year, Tinubu could have granted tariff waivers to achieve temporary relief. It took him a year to approve. Too little, too late. He could have done far better with his message of sacrifice if he had lived it. Instead, we are talking about buying presidential jets. Sacrifice is obviously for the lesser mortals. In the final analysis, people have a right and reason to protest. It won’t solve the economic problem, obviously, but it could put our insensitive leaders on notice about not always taking Nigerians for granted.

People are hungry. As Marley also put it, “A hungry mob is an angry mob.” That is my fear about public protests. Things can get out of hand. The ideal thing would be for the organisers and the security agencies to work hand in hand to make sure the protest goes in an orderly and civilised way. But things are more likely to be violent. Whichever way things go, however, the government needs to wake up. Times are hard, very hard, and they are not doing enough or acting on time to relieve the pains. Contrary to a widespread opinion, Nigerians are not a difficult people to lead. They just want leaders who feel their pains and do things that show that they care. Is that too much to ask?

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

COMMISSIONS GALORE

Last year, President Bola Tinubu ordered “immediate implementation” of the Oronsanye Report “to cut the cost of governance”. The core recommendation was to reduce the number of government agencies — currently estimated at over 700 — through mergers and dissolutions. Well, we just created the North West Development Commission and the South East Development Commission to replicate the patronage and sleaze in the Niger Delta Development Commission and the North East Development Commission. Next stop? North Central Development Commission and South West Development Commission. Every state, every LGA will soon a get development commission. Nigeria!

HOME COMING

If they explained Edo state politics to you and you understood, then it was not well explained. I actually adapted that from a saying about Nigeria. Comrade Philip Shaibu, the impeached deputy governor, has left the PDP for the APC where he was until 2020 when he and Governor Godwin Obaseki fell out with Comrade Adams Oshiomhole. Their opponent in 2016, Pastor Ize Iyamu, left PDP for APC to run for governorship in 2020. They traded places. On his return to APC last week, Shaibu knelt before Oshiomhole, whom he had publicly savaged in 2020. Once upon a time, I used to take sides with politicians. I learnt my lesson 20 years ago. All I do now is enjoy the show. Netflix.

WAGE RAGE

After prolonged negotiations, the minimum wage has been more than doubled — from N30,000 to N70,000 per month. Another review is expected in 2027. This is not a bad deal, even if not great either. Employers still have to generate the revenue to pay. Many will end up not paying at all or sacking workers in order to manage the wage bill. Some will do both. I find two popular takes on the minimum wage amusing. One, people make it look like N70,000 is the average wage of a Nigerian worker. It is not. It is for the lowest paid. Two, people convert the figure to dollars in order to ridicule it — as if workers collect their salaries and head to the BDC. It surely doesn’t work like that. Cynical.

NO COMMENT

Alhaji Umar Namadi, governor of Jigawa state, has told Nigerians that the planned nationwide protest against economic hardship is not the solution to our problem. True, but I wish he had stopped there. He went on to say “people should turn to God, repent, seek for forgiveness and divine intervention on the challenges”. Truly, economic hardship is not limited to Nigeria – it is a global phenomenon, although it seems Nigeria has been on a freefall. However, interpreting the hardship as “a trial from God” and something that needs repentance and forgiveness, as Namadi did, is quite bemusing. In that case, the repentance should start with those mismanaging the country. Logical.

End Bad Governance Protest: Tinubu, Fix the Economy, Leave Protesters Alone by Ajiboye Amos Olakunle 

The Nigerian government's recent attempts to quash the End Bad Governance protests have been utterly astounding. In a frantic bid to cling to power and maintain the status quo, they have resorted to a multi-pronged strategy of intimidation, manipulation, and division. By exploiting traditional institutions, the government seeks to create an aura of mystique and foreboding, aiming to deter citizens from exercising their fundamental human rights. Threats have been issued to protesters, and agents provocateurs have been deployed to foment discord and violence. The government's tactics are clear: silence dissent, crush opposition, and maintain the grip of bad governance on our beloved nation.

The manipulation of traditional groups to commence rituals on protest dates is a cynical ploy to deter citizens from exercising their fundamental human rights. It's a crude attempt to conjure an aura of mystique and foreboding, creating an atmosphere of trepidation and dread. However, we are not deceived. Any ritualist who comes out on the day of protest, in fact, has joined the call for change.

We say to the government: your priorities are misplaced. The same energy, resources, and determination you have applied to suppressing the protests should be channeled towards genuine reform and good governance. The same pressure you have brought to bear on the protesters should be applied to fixing the systemic problems that have plagued our nation for far too long.

The Nigerian people demand more than just superficial concessions and token gestures. We demand a fundamental transformation of our governance system, a radical overhaul of our institutions, and a commitment to transparency, accountability, and justice. We call on the government to redirect its focus towards addressing the pressing issues that have driven the protests in the first place. Fix the economy, provide jobs, and alleviate poverty. Ensure access to quality education and healthcare. Address the scourge of corruption and mismanagement. Protect the rights and freedoms of all Nigerians.

The government's current approach is akin to treating the symptoms of a disease while ignoring the root cause. It is a short-sighted strategy that will only lead to further unrest, further division, and further suffering. We urge the government to engage with the protesters, to listen to their grievances, and to work towards a comprehensive and inclusive solution. We urge them to recognize that the protests are not a threat, but an opportunity – an opportunity to reform, to renew, and to rebuild our dear nation.

The Nigerian people will not be silenced, will not be intimidated, and will not be oppressed. We will continue to demand a better future, to fight for our rights, and to reclaim our country from those who seek to destroy it. To the government, we say: the choice is yours. Continue down the path of repression and division, or choose the path of reform and progress. The Nigerian people await your response."

Kazakhstan’s duo Alexandra Le and Islam Satpayev won the first medal of the 2024 Olympic Games on Saturday after claiming an upset bronze in the 10-metre mixed team air rifle event.

Le and Satpayev cruised to victory over Germany’s Maximilian Ulbrich and Anna Janssen, outscoring their opponents 17-5 at Chateauroux.

Janssen, ranked world number one in the event, and Ulbrich, the world No.19, had been favourites to prevail against Le and Satpayev, ranked 33rd and 95th in the world respectively.

[Leadership]

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guests: APOSTLE KEHINDE ADEWALE SHOWEMIMO
LAGOS STATE CHAIRMAN, POLICE COMMUNITY RELATIONS COMMITTEE (PCRC)

Topic: "Protests, Public Safety and Police Community Relations"

Date: 27th July, 2024

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Meeting ID: 928 7714 1732
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