The Sokoto police command says an armed group identified as ‘Lakurawas’ is operating in five LGAs of the state.

Ahmed Rufai, police spokesperson in the state, confirmed the development to Punch.

Rufai said members of the group wield sophisticated weapons and operate in Gudu, Tangaza, Binji, Illeila, and one other LGA.

“They have been in those areas for some years now. They are armed with weapons and part of their agenda is to impose their own kind of religious practice on the people,” he said.

“They even attack suspected bandits in the areas, according to information available to us. They claim to be working against illegalities.”

On November 5, Idris Gobir, the deputy governor of the state, raised concerns over the emergence of a criminal group in the state.

Gobir said the group is a faith-based one, adding that security agencies were working to address the threats.

“An assessment carried out indicated that the group possessed sophisticated weapons and their criminal activities were observed in about five local government areas in the state,” Gobir said.

“The sad development is happening at a time the state is grappling with banditry.

“The state government has been working closely with federal security agencies to address numerous security threats to lives and properties of the people of the state.”

Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States, following a dramatic victory over Kamala Harris, brings new questions for Nigeria’s economic outlook.

Trump’s economic policies, built around “America First,” prioritize domestic energy production, tariffs on imports, and pushing for low interest rates.

These policies could have a significant impact on Nigeria’s economy, particularly in the areas of exchange rates, capital flows, inflation, and immigration. Below is an analysis of how these shifts could affect Nigeria’s economic landscape.

Key takeaways 

Donald Trump’s second term could have sweeping implications for Nigeria’s economy.

• A stronger dollar, potential capital outflows from the U.S., and low global oil prices may add to Nigeria’s exchange rate volatility, putting pressure on the naira and increasing inflation.
• Immigration restrictions could reduce remittance flows, while geopolitical shifts might reduce U.S. support for Nigeria’s security and development needs.
• Nigeria’s policymakers may need to consider alternative strategies, such as fostering regional trade, increasing non-oil exports, and pursuing structural reforms to counterbalance the potential challenges posed by Trump’s policies.

Exchange Rate pressures from a Stronger Dollar

Trump’s policies could lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, particularly if his administration imposes tariffs that increase demand for domestically produced goods and services.

• A stronger dollar generally makes it more expensive for emerging economies like Nigeria to acquire foreign exchange, potentially straining the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) efforts to stabilize the naira.
• Nigeria’s naira has depreciated by over 45% this year, and an appreciation of the dollar could further weaken the naira, impacting import costs, inflation, and purchasing power.
• A stronger dollar also increases Nigeria’s debt-servicing costs, as many of Nigeria’s obligations are dollar-denominated.
• Given Nigeria’s reliance on imports for fuel, raw materials, and consumer goods, additional dollar strength could heighten inflationary pressures on already high living costs.

Interest rates and Capital Flows into Nigeria 

Historically, Trump has favoured a low-interest-rate environment, pushing the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose monetary policy even during periods of economic growth.

• During Trump’s initial presidency, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, peaking at 2.5% in 2018 before cutting them near zero by March 2020 to counteract the economic effects of COVID-19.
• Trump’s renewed pressure for lower interest rates could again influence the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
• If the Federal Reserve keeps rates low, this could, in theory, result in capital outflows from the U.S. as investors seek higher returns in emerging markets.
• However, if dollar strength persists and other global markets remain volatile, investor sentiment may still favour U.S. assets as a haven.

From 2016 to 2020, Nigeria attracted approximately $58.1 billion in capital importation, with 2019 seeing the highest inflows at $23 billion.

• This was in part due to Nigeria offering high-yielding instruments like government bonds, which attracted foreign investors—including $4.69 billion from U.S. sources in that year.
• Should Trump’s policies create a continued low-yield environment in the U.S., Nigeria could once again attract U.S.-based capital looking for higher returns, particularly if Nigeria maintains attractive interest rates on its debt instruments.
• This capital inflow could help alleviate Nigeria’s foreign exchange pressures and support naira stability.

Inflation and Trump’s energy policies 

Trump’s focus on reducing U.S. energy costs by increasing domestic oil production and drilling on federal lands could mean sustained low global oil prices. In his first term,

• Trump’s policies and the COVID-19 pandemic led to WTI crude oil prices falling sharply to around $39.17 per barrel in 2020, compared to $65.20 per barrel in 2018.
• As Nigeria heavily relies on oil exports for government revenue and foreign exchange, prolonged low oil prices could impact budget stability and government spending, with knock-on effects on inflation and economic growth.
• Furthermore, Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, could raise inflation within the U.S., which might trickle down to Nigeria by increasing the cost of imported goods and components.
• Since the U.S. is among Nigeria’s top trading partners (N2.2 trillion in imports and N2.8 trillion in exports in the first half of 2024), a U.S.-led price increase could influence Nigeria’s inflation through costlier imports of essential goods like machinery, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products.

Immigration and Nigerian diaspora impact 

Trump’s return to office raises concerns for Nigerians regarding U.S. immigration policy. His administration previously imposed travel restrictions on Nigeria, citing national security risks, which disrupted the movement of students, professionals, and family members.

• If Trump reinstates such policies, it could dampen the ability of Nigerians to pursue educational and work opportunities in the U.S.
• This restriction would not only impact Nigerian nationals but could also reduce remittance flows, which are a major source of foreign exchange for Nigeria.
• In recent years, remittances from the Nigerian diaspora have contributed over $20 billion annually to Nigeria’s economy, helping to offset FX shortages.
• A decrease in remittance inflows would reduce domestic consumption and place additional pressure on Nigeria’s foreign reserves, which are already under strain.

Geopolitical dynamics and U.S. aid to Nigeria 

Under Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, military aid and development assistance to African nations were deprioritized in favour of reducing overseas commitments.

• For Nigeria, which partners with the U.S. in counter-terrorism and security, this could imply reduced military support.
• Nigeria has relied on U.S. assistance to combat Boko Haram and other insurgent groups, so any reduction in support could undermine Nigeria’s regional security efforts.
• A decline in aid could also impact Nigeria’s developmental projects and social programs funded by U.S. agencies.
• With high poverty rates and a significant need for investment in health, education, and infrastructure, a reduction in aid would necessitate increased spending by the Nigerian government, potentially redirecting funds away from other critical areas.

Trade Policies and Nigerian Exports to the U.S. 

Trump’s “Buy American” policy has often focused on reducing imports and increasing tariffs, which could impact Nigeria’s trade relationship with the U.S.

• In the first half of 2024, Nigeria recorded a trade surplus with the U.S., with imports at N1.9 trillion and exports at N3.1 trillion.
•  If Trump’s tariff policies discourage U.S. imports from Nigeria, this could negatively affect Nigeria’s export earnings, particularly for sectors like oil, minerals, and agricultural products.
• A decrease in exports to the U.S. might impact Nigeria’s current account balance, further complicating its exchange rate and foreign reserve challenges.

[Nairametrics]

A prominent Niger Delta elder and chieftain of the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), Chief Edwin Clark, has called for an investigation into what he described as the misuse of oaths by lawmakers in the Rivers State House of Assembly, who are reportedly loyal to former Governor Nyesom Wike.

Martins Amawhule leads the legislators in question, Naija News reports.

In a statement released on Wednesday, Clark accused the lawmakers of contradictory declarations regarding their party loyalties while under oath.

He urged law enforcement authorities to thoroughly investigate the matter, emphasizing the seriousness of such discrepancies.

“Amawhule and his associates have made conflicting statements under oath, at times professing allegiance to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and at other moments aligning with different political groups,” Clark said, describing this as a grave issue requiring immediate police attention.

Clark’s statement also took aim at recent court rulings involving the Rivers State House of Assembly, denouncing the judgments as “obtained by fraud.”

He alleged that Amawhule and his colleagues withheld crucial information that influenced the outcomes of decisions made by Justice James Omotoso and the Court of Appeal.

The controversy dates back to December 11, 2023, when Amawhule and 26 other assembly members defected from the PDP to join the All Progressives Congress (APC).

According to Clark, this defection breached Section 109(1)(g) of the Nigerian Constitution, which mandates that any lawmaker who switches parties without just cause should forfeit their seat. He argued that by leaving the PDP, these lawmakers had effectively vacated their positions.

Following their defection, the lawmakers submitted legal documents containing inconsistent claims about their party membership.

Clark contended that these contradictions undermine the validity of a January 22, 2024, ruling by Justice Omotoso, who did not account for the constitutional provision regarding party defection and seat forfeiture.

Clark also raised concerns over the actions of Justice Okorowo, who blocked the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from initiating the process of replacing the defected lawmakers.

This decision, Clark noted, was issued shortly before Justice Okorowo’s elevation to the Court of Appeal, raising questions about the timing and implications of the judgment.

In addition to these criticisms, Clark expressed disappointment over recent remarks made by the Court of Appeal directed at Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, adding another layer of complexity to the ongoing political turmoil in Rivers State.

[NaijaNews]

On Monday, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, came down hard on the All Progressives Congress, APC-led government of President Bola Tinubu, insisting that the prevailing economic hardship in the country was a direct outcome of Tinubu’s incoherent plan, a development he equally attributed to the President’s hasty assumption of power without a clear cut policy direction.

Atiku was responding to the Presidency’s dismissal of his earlier submission on Sunday, regarding what he would have done differently if he had won the 2023 presidential election to keep the economy in a good standing.

He had insisted that the Federal Government cannot tax its way out of the present economic crisis in the country.

In a statement, “What we would have done differently,” Atiku had criticised the way the Federal Government managed the fuel subsidy removal, as well as the fiscal and monetary policies of President Tinubu’s administration, and outlined a set of policies he could have pursued if he were the President.

However, reacting through the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the Presidency dismissed Atiku’s alternatives, saying it was lacking in detail.

Onanuga noted that had the former Vice President won the 2023 presidential polls, he would have plunged the country into a worse economic situation or overseen a regime of cronyism.

Atiku was quoted to have said: “Like many fellow Nigerians, I firmly believe that we find ourselves in this current economic turmoil due to the current administration’s hasty ascent to power, devoid of a coherent plan.

“In stark contrast, my team not only devised a comprehensive recovery plan, but also welcomed significant input from Nigerians, ensuring that our approach was inclusive and well-considered.

“Is it not fascinating how the so-called tested Tinubu administration’s only policy response seems to be a national prayer led by the First Lady and the National Security Adviser, NSA, just a mere 24 hours after I proposed my alternative solutions? What a bold strategy!”

He mocked the Tinubu’s administration for its failures to address the hardship in the land, saying, “While prayer is a noble path to follow, the scriptures prescribe diligent labour and hard work.”

He maintained that many countries have emerged as strong economies by encouraging economic growth through low taxes, and wondered why Tinubu’s government was fixated on inflicting further hardship upon an already struggling populace.

“We cannot hope to tax our way out of the economic quagmire wrought by these misguided experimental policies of a novice administration.

“Numerous nations, such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Monaco, among many others, have emerged as economic powerhouses by fostering growth through lower taxation.

“One can only speculate that Tinubu’s government is anchored to a mere Tea-plan, which can only lead to a T-pain.

“Furthermore, let me emphasise that the citizens who cast their votes in the 2023 presidential election are well aware that I did not lose; rather, we found ourselves in this predicament because the election was criminally stolen from the Nigerian people.

“It is, therefore, uncharitable for Tinubu’s team to claim that my proposals remained untested. What remains unproven is the erratic, trial-and-error nature of the policies so far implemented by this administration, which elucidates our present predicament,” he submitted.

The former vice president went ahead to buttress his argument with what he had done in the past, while in government.

He said: “Let us not forget that under our economic stewardship between 1999 and 2003, Nigeria soared to the pinnacle of Africa’s economies, while their administration has relegated us to a disheartening fourth position.

“The average GDP rate under the Obasanjo administration that I served in was 6.59 percent and peaked at 15 percent in 2002; 7.98 percent under the late Yar’Adua administration and 4.8 percent under Jonathan compared to the dismal 2.8 percent of the so-called “tested” Tinubu era.”

Painting a picture of what Nigeria has become in recent time, a Katsina State-based educationist, Mallam Sabiu Fago said: “The cloud is gathering and becoming darker by the day. Danger lurks around as hunger and starvation bite harder.

“Nigerians are running out of patience with the government, and if urgent steps are not taken to arrest the ugly trend, something disastrous might happen.

“The people are saying that they can no longer bear the pains of the government’s economic policies, which have made life unbearable and hellish for them.

“They said most households can no longer afford to buy food in the market as prices keep rising at an astronomical rate and on a daily basis; a situation they claimed has rendered them less than humans.

“Prices of staple foods like maize, rice, millet, guinea corn, garri and other food items, like beans, have all hit the roof top, such that hunger and starvation have become the order of the day.

“To make matters worse, the people are also under heavy attacks by various armed groups, ranging from Boko Haram Islamists sect to Fulani herdsmen militia, bandits and kidnappers, without any hope in sight. Kidnapping for ransom has become a big business.”

He likened the current realities in Nigeria to an English philosopher, Thomas Hobbes’ picture of a state of nature where life is poor, nasty, short and brutish.

Throwing his weight behind the former vice president, a former lawmaker in Katsina State, Yusuf Shehu agreed that Nigerians were actually passing through hell due to the thoughtless economic policies of the current administration, particularly the removal of subsidy on petrol products, without an alternatives arrangement to cushion its effect on the masses.

“Atiku is right in what he has said. How can the president just announce that the subsidy was gone even when he had not entered the office to even see the books and study them?

“No visionary leader will make a policy pronouncement without first looking through the books to even understand what the problems are.

“If you check very well, you will agree with me that from that very moment when he made that announcement on May 29, 2023, till today, Nigerians have known no peace. It has been suffering all the way and I don’t even see a sign of respite in the nearest future.

“So, Atiku is 100 percent correct in what he has said, and I would advise the Presidency to look inward and see what it can do to change the economic fortunes of Nigerians rather than attacking Atiku or dismissing his suggestions.”

He wondered why Tinubu has not been able to bring the Port Harcourt Refinery to operation since he removed subsidy from petrol.

“One would think that the President, having pronounced that the subsidy was gone, would do everything possible to fix our refineries.

“Recall that since he assumed office, Nigerians have been told, at least four times, that the PH Refinery would be operational at four different times, but none of the promises ever materialised; it has been all politics. We can’t continue like this,” he stated.

He warned that Atiku’s statement should be taken seriously to avert possible danger.

He said: “Imagine the situation before Buhari came to power and the situation today; it is an embarrassment. We are already sitting on a time bomb.

“The protests that happened in countries like Kenya will be a child’s play compared to what will likely come out from the northern part of the country when the people feel they have been pushed to the wall and they can no longer bear the hardship.

“Don’t forget that over time, the north has suffered from poverty, hunger, deprivation and a lot of other ills from our so-called leaders, who never and probably may never look out for the welfare of their people as their paramount responsibilities.

“Under this situation, you don’t expect people to respect the law. People cannot be kept under this atmosphere and you expect things to be good.

“People cannot be in this situation and you expect the crime rate to be low. It is going to be worse because everybody is going to be a victim whether you are rich or poor.

“So, the earlier the government realises the poverty of the situation and brings a short term solution, shoving bureaucracy aside, the better for all of us, otherwise we will wake up one day, and there will be no country called Nigeria.”

President of the Middle Belt Forum (MBF), Dr Pogu Bitrus, also agreed with Atiku, saying that the current administration’s twin economic policies of subsidy removal from petrol and floating of the Naira were responsible for the hardship in the land.

“I am surprised that the presidency would be attacking Atiku for saying he would have done better with the economy if he were the president.

“I don’t know if he would have done better, anyway, but the truth remains that the current administration’s economic policies are anti-people.

“There is no way things will be the same with the subsidy removal. You can’t just do that without adequate alternative arrangements like fixing the existing refineries in the country, so that at least, importation of fuel will stop, and expect things not to get tough for the masses.

“If we are not importing fuel, that is if we are refining fuel locally, the price would automatically crash and it would also spread to every aspect of the people’s lives,” he told DAILY POST.

Also speaking, Abdullahi Fago, an educationist based in Maiduwa Local Government Area of Katsina State, equally agreed with Atiku’s position.

He advised the presidency to concentrate on providing good governance to the people, instead of tackling people who express honest opinions about the true situation of things in the country.

He lamented that there is acute hunger across Nigeria; a situation he said has been worsened by the growing insecurity in the country.

He, however, warned that if the government does not respond urgently to halt the trend, it would escalate to something more worrisome.

“A stitch in time saves nine. The government should do everything possible to avoid the looming danger.

“They should not allow the situation to degenerate beyond what is currently on ground, otherwise, what would follow is what nobody can imagine accurately,” he warned.

A Lagos-based lawyer and public affairs analyst, Marcellus Onah, equally condemned the Presidency’s reaction to Atiku’s comment, saying “Atiku was just speaking the minds of Nigerians.

“He is just stating the obvious. Who doesn’t know that the current hardship was caused by the fuel subsidy removal and the floating of Naira?

“There was so much hope for this government but unfortunately, this is what we get. People are suffering.

“People are dying of hunger everyday and crime is on the increase due to poverty and lack of legitimate job opportunities, especially for the youth.

“My heart bleeds when I see people roaming to find food unsuccessfully for their families,” he said.

[DailyPost]