As Nigerians join the rest of the world to usher in a New Year, political pundits predict an upward swing in the tempo of political activities ahead of the 2027 general election.

Judging from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election which Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won, the performance of the three main opposition parties and their candidates stood out.

Perhaps having learnt lessons from their collective defeat, opposition leaders are said to have began consultations in a bid to upstage Tinubu in 2027.

This was confirmed by a former National Vice Chairman (North-West) of the APC, Salihu Lukman, an ally of former Kaduna State Governor, Ahmed El-Rufa’i.

Lukman spoke on the subject on New Year’s Day.

He said: “While acknowledging that opposition political leaders, including alienated APC leaders, have commenced negotiations towards producing alternative political platform, it must be also recognised that most Nigerian politicians are not disposed to competitive political culture.

“Largely because most politicians are driven by personal ambitions to contest elections, the default mindset is about imposition and manipulating processes to achieve personal ambitions. This must stop.

“We must remind all our political leaders that if they want to prove their altruistic value and demonstrate strong disposition towards rescuing Nigeria, therefore beyond the pretentious claims of subordinating personal ambitions towards the emergence of the new platform, opposition political leaders should commit themselves to allowing political competition as basis for the emergence of political leaders at all levels”.

The question begging for answers remains, Can any of the leading opposition parties go it alone?

PDP and the trouble within

The chances of the PDP in the 2027 presidential election are uncertain, but its past performance and current challenges are worth considering.

Historically, the PDP has been a dominant political force in Nigeria.

It won every presidential election between 1999 and 2011 until it lost power to the APC in 2015 and have since struggled to bounce back.

Its presidential candidate in the 2023 poll, Atiku, lost to APC’s Bola Tinubu, receiving 29.1 percent of the vote compared to Tinubu’s 36.61 percent.

This, according to some analysts, suggests that the PDP still commands a significant following, but faces strong competition from the APC.

The party is currently struggling with internal conflict which, if left unresolved in 2025, two years ahead of the 2027 polls, could undermine its ability to present a united front at the elections.

Challenger

Atiku’s desire to be President hasn’t changed. He is expected to fight for the party ticket with Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, a potential challenger from the South.

The party also has to contend with the challenge posed by the larger than life influence of Chief Nyesom Wike.

Wike is one PDP leader who not only serves as Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), under an APC administration, but has vowed to work for Tinubu’s re-election.

A former National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Kola Ologbondiyan, is optimistic about the party’s chances.

Ologbondiyan said, “Let’s consider facts. Which other party can genuinely boast of our kind of a well-established structure? Which other party enjoys our kind of grassroots organic support?

“It is only in the PDP that you can find a pool of experienced politicians, including former presidents and governors, who have the capacity to provide guidance and support. We have challenges no doubt, but we will overcome them.”

Overall, while the PDP has a chance of winning the 2027 presidential election, it will require careful planning, strategic campaigning, and a bit of luck.

Labour Party’s war of attrition

Although the Julius Abure-led National Working Committee of the party enjoys the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s recognition, critical stakeholders like: the NLC, Peter Obi and the party’s only elected Governor, Alex Otti, reject his leadership.

There is even talk of Obi and co-seeking alternative platforms.

But the National Publicity Secretary of the LP, Obiora Ifoh, said, “Despite the temporary setbacks, our party has suffered with the defection of some of our lawmakers, we have started the rebuilding process.

“Our party will not only recover, we will grow and surpass our 2023 achievements at the polls.”

Romance with APC

Kwankwaso, who is the party’s national leader of the NNPP, is facing an uphill task keeping the party together.

The party boasts of one governor, some senators and members of the Kano State Assembly and members of the House of Representatives, but there is no guarantee that Kwankwaso can prevent the looming defections from the party into the ruling APC.

Whereas the 2027 presidential election in Nigeria is more than two years away, pundits agree that it’s safe to speculate about the chances of Kwankwaso and Peter Obi.

Amid the talks about a potential alliance between the two ahead of 2027, Kwankwaso expressed his willingness recently to serve as Peter Obi’s running mate under certain conditions.

This development is significant, considering their previous discussions about a merger ahead of the 2023 general election which did not materialize.

In the 2023 election, Peter Obi emerged third, securing approximately 6,101,533 votes, while Kwankwaso garnered 1,496,687 votes to emerge fourth.

While these numbers don’t necessarily predict the outcome of the 2027 election, they do indicate that both candidates have a significant following.

Dynamics

A Jos, Plateau State-based political scientist, Dr. Joseph Anuga, said, “If Kwankwaso and Peter Obi were to form an alliance, it could potentially boost their chances. We must note that the dynamics of 2023 may not be the same in 2027.”

Anuga stressed that it was essential to note that Nigerian politics can be unpredictable as various factors, including party dynamics, regional considerations, and voter sentiment ultimately influences the outcome.

Reluctance

Obi, on his part, is trying hard not to be drawn into the 2027 debate and the possibility of a merger or the formation of a mega party.

Commenting on the subject at a media event in Abuja, he said, “On the issue of merger, everybody who means well should come together to get the country to work.

“Let’s build this country. None of us is going to be here forever. For me, what is important today is Nigeria. We are so occupied about election, just as we are so occupied with power capture.”

Kwankwaso also denied the speculation that he and his two fellow opposition leaders had agreed on a formula to defeat Tinubu and share power.

He said, “I heard from a source that PDP brought in scholars – about 45 of them – and claimed that there was a consensus that Atiku will rule for four years and Peter Obi will rule for eight years. This is a complete lie and has no basis in reality”.

Master of the game

With his mastery of the political game, Tinubu and the APC know how to cultivate loyalists.
Apart from the power of incumbency, the President has ensured that those who worked for his victory in 2023 were not only rewarded but kept close.

His loyalists currently control both chambers of the National Assembly as well as all levers of state institutions and instruments of coercion. Former Governors David Umahi (Ebonyi), Nyesom Wike (Rivers), Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano), Bello Mattawalle (Zamfara), Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi) and Mohammed Badaru (Jigawa) have all been rewarded with ministerial posts and are expected to repay this gesture with a repeat performance in 2027.

The President and his party have also been fingered as having more than a passing interest in the crisis in the three major opposition parties.

At this point, it’s difficult to accurately assess their chances, but the potential alliance between Kwankwaso and Peter Obi is certainly an interesting development to watch.

[Vanguard]

Segun Olowookere, the popular death-for-fowl convict recently pardoned by Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State, speaks with ISMAEEL UTHMAN about his travail

How old were you when they arrested you and your date of birth?

I was 17 years old. I was born on January 28, 1993.

What were you convicted of aside from stealing of fowl? 

They said stealing, conspiracy and armed robbery.

How did you feel on the day you were sentenced to death?

I was heartbroken; no one will hear his/her death’s day and be happy. However, I had hope that I would not be killed.

What was the reaction of the people in the courtroom?

They felt so bad because of our age and the nature of the crime we were convicted of. They thought the judge should have pardoned us because we were minors. They even wondered why we were sentenced to death because of fowls and eggs. So, many people, including my prosecutor, felt so bad and sympathised with us. The prosecutor, who was from the Ministry of Justice, said she would not be responsible for my death if I was killed.

Which correctional centre were you taken to after the judgment?

We were taken to Ilesa Correctional Centre, Osun State, but we moved to Ibara Prison, Abeokuta, on the second day. I was remanded at Ilesa throughout the trial of the case. I was in Ilesa prison from 2010 to 2014 after I was condemned. I taught some primary school pupils at the Princess Hope Foundation School inside the prison.

How did the warders receive you?

The prison authority felt bad when we got to Ilesa after the judgment. The warders said we were small boys and that we should have been taken to a juvenile home. But it was written on our papers that we were 18 years old. So, we could serve the sentence in prison. When I got to Ibara Prison, the warders wondered why we were sentenced to death. They expressed their dismay that the judgment was so harsh. The case caused a lot of stir then. Many people, including other inmates and warders, were coming to see me because they were surprised about our case.

I continued my education in the prison. I joined Yewa College of Education where I studied Business Administration. I spent almost two years at Ibara Prison before I was moved to Kirikiri Maximum Prison in Lagos.

How was life inside the correctional centre?

I ensured that I didn’t lose hope or become depressed. Aside from education, I always played football to make myself happy. When I got to the Ibara prison, a football competition was going on and it was two weeks to the final. I participated and even lifted the trophy for the team I represented.

I was moved to Kirikiri in 2016. I opted for Kirikiri after I learnt that there was the National Open University of Nigeria there. I thought it was an opportunity to enrol at the university to continue my education. But when I got there, I had some little challenges that did not allow me to enrol, but some prison staff members encouraged me, and attached me to the medical facility where all comprehensive health services, including surgical operations, were being done. They asked me to learn under the doctors, pharmacists, and nurses there.

I achieved many things working at the medical facility before Governor Ademola Adeleke pardoned me. I was always on my own, I never fought any inmate. They never locked me up or punished me. I did not commit any infraction. When I woke up, I went to the clinic to attend to patients and do other assignments. I returned to my cell once we closed, read my books and slept.

How many of you were on death row at Kirikiri Maximum Prison?

I don’t know the total number, but I know we were many, more than 400.

How many inmates were in a cell?

It depends on the size of the cell. In my cell, we were four, and all of us were on death row.

What lessons did you learn in your 14 years on death row?

The first lesson is that someone should not join a bad gang or mingle with people who will not better your life. I am the only one who knows how much I learnt. I am now a good person to myself. I will never make a single mistake or do anything that will take me back to the prison. I did not know anything about the case that took me to prison, but God used it to teach me a lot of lessons. I have a lot of experience, even as an inmate executive.

How did you become an executive?

If I have the opportunity to become the president of Nigeria, I will increase the salary and welfare packages of the prison officers/warders, because of the serious and impactful work they do. Those officers are competent enough to transform the lives of hardened criminals.

A prison officer can manage more than 100 inmates without any challenge, due to training, experience, and competence. To make their work easier, the warders usually choose responsible inmates and make them executives. The inmate executives will address issues whenever warders are not available. I believed I was chosen because of my humble character.

What will you miss after leaving the prison?

I will miss most of the people we used to relate to there. Many of them are also innocent like me. One of the innocent souls inside the prison is Seun, a young boy like me from Ekiti. He said he went to join his bricklayer brothers on site after school so they would all return home together on the day he was arrested by the police, who claimed that they were responsible for a robbery case in the area.

He was 15 years old when he was arrested. They kept him in a juvenile home till he clocked 18 before he was tried and sentenced to death by hanging. There is another case of someone who was convicted of receiving a stolen generator; he has been in custody since 1999 till now. Many things are happening inside the prison. I see the place as a school. Everything in the prison – food, water, movement, and all is rationed. That’s how life in the prison is.

How would you describe your 14 years in prison?

I do not consider it a waste because I had the opportunity to learn a lot which I might not have learnt if I was a free person. Somebody who framed me and got me to be on death row could have killed me if I was not in prison custody. I can recall 126 inmates who have died within 14 years. I know some people who were able-bodied when I got there but have lost one or two parts of their body before I left.

I do not see the period as a waste. I went to school, I worked as a medical ad hoc staff and I was also able to acquire some skills, which if I am able to gather resources, will earn me a solid means of livelihood. We have a pure water factory, bakery, carpentry workshop, and other skill acquisition centres within the facility for inmates to undertake skill acquisition.

We have primary and secondary schools, colleges of education, and universities. Any inmate who didn’t acquire a skill is the one who wasted his years. I remember the case of one Elijah Ambassador who produced a musical album inside the prison and sold copies outside the facility. Promoters came from Abuja to the prison to launch the album.

How many condemned convicts were executed while you were there?

No condemned inmate was executed. But I know of someone who was on the same compound with us at Kirikiri but was moved to Edo, and three days later, we learnt he was part of the three inmates executed in Edo.

How did you feel when you left the prison?

If I had the opportunity to change my date of birth, I would have gladly changed it to the date I was released from prison. The day that warders did not chastise me, or anyone attempted to shout at me, the day women embraced me for the first time in 14 years. I was extremely happy. The day my family members embraced me, and everyone welcomed me like a king. I had believed I would come out alive from the prison, but I did not know my freedom would be celebrated loudly. It is a day I will never forget. My heart, my family members, and the entire people of Oyan are more than grateful to Governor Adeleke.

When I got to Oyan, the policeman who arrested me in 2010 was telling people that I was not involved in the stealing of fowl and eggs. He told them I never visited his house or poultry to steal from him. The policeman said he was directed to arrest me because the children arrested for stealing mentioned my name. He did testify in court in my favour during the trial. The people were happy because I was freed after years of punishment for an offence I didn’t commit. It is an open secret in the town I know nothing about the case.

What is your focus now that you regained freedom?

I only have God and people around me. I believe God will direct my steps. I will not misuse any opportunity I get from people. With what I have learnt in prison, I should be able to do something tangible if I have the means.

Your co-pardoned convict, Sunday Morakinyo, is with you in Oyan, and he is said to be battling with a mental disorder. How do you feel seeing him in such a condition?

I am not happy; I cried uncontrollably when we visited him three days ago. I cried because he had no mental challenge before he was arrested. The mental issue started when he was tortured at the police station. Blood was coming out of every part of his body. I had to clean the blood coming out of his body for 23 days. We spent 23 days at the police station before being taken to court.

It was when we got to prison that Sunday that he was attended to medically. The medical officers at the prison told us that blood had stained his brain, making him mentally deranged. Throughout the years he was in jail, he was in the cell of inmates who needed medical attention.

Do you want the government to revisit your case?

No. I do not want the government to do anything to those who implicated me. I have accepted my fate. I have learnt that whatever will come to pass will surely come to pass. I cannot blame anyone for my travail. If I have the opportunity to meet the judge who sentenced me to death, I will prostrate and thank him.

If he had discharged and acquitted me then, God knows what the person who planned what happened to me would have done to me. He might have found a way to kill me. I might have died. The judge who sentenced me did well; he added a chance for the governor to pardon me after 10 years. I don’t harbour any ill feeling towards the judge or anybody.

But I will advise the police to be responsible and civil in discharging their duties. Not everyone will have the grace of coming out for people with a good heart and improved character. The police should try as much as possible to investigate thoroughly and weigh the level of offence before rushing to try suspects in court.

Police should also prioritise reforming suspects with minor offences instead of sending them to prison to meet hardened criminals who will make their lives complicated. I have seen a lot of instances where those who went to jail on trumped-up charges and minor crimes became hardened criminals after they left prison.

Some of these hardened criminals and convicts who have spent close to 25 to 30 years in jail would prey on these innocent minors and even sodomise them because they know they do not have anyone to run to. These older inmates manipulated younger ones who freshly joined them; they lured the minors with tea, garri and little things to force them to commit sodomy.

The minors sometimes fall for the tricks because they are usually hungry and don’t have anyone to help them. But anytime these inmates are caught, they are always beaten and dealt with. Police and courts should consider the implications of throwing minors and small offenders into prison.

How will you describe the prison facilities?

The major challenge was congestion. There were too many people inside a limited space. Because of the population, 50 inmates would occupy a room that should naturally contain a maximum of 10 people. We sleep like fishes packed in a carton because everywhere is measured for us.

As an inmate, a space is measured for you to sleep because of congestion. Unfortunately, many innocent people are languishing in prisons. I pray God makes me a voice to speak up for their liberation. Some people have spent over 30 years and are due for freedom, but no one comes to their aid.