The Nigerian workforce eagerly awaits an increase in the national minimum wage, as they struggle to cope with the country's economic challenges. The Federal Government has taken a step in the right direction by approving a salary increase for civil servants while promising that a new minimum wage will soon follow. However, the current minimum wage of thirty thousand naira falls significantly short of meeting basic needs and has plunged many workers into a life of absolute poverty.

To put this into perspective, the World Bank sets the poverty threshold at individuals living below 1.9 dollars per day. With a minimum wage equivalent to roughly one thousand naira per day, Nigerian workers find themselves well below this line. Sustaining oneself, let alone supporting a family, on such meager income is a daunting task, making it nearly impossible to fulfill even the most basic needs and aspirations.

Fairness in Employment Practices

When evaluating the fairness of employers in Nigeria towards their workers, the situation reveals a nuanced landscape. In the private sector, compliance with the national minimum wage is relatively common, as most employers adhere to legal requirements. However, some exploit the low minimum wage by offering salaries just above this threshold, taking advantage of the high unemployment rates in the country. Consequently, highly qualified individuals often find themselves receiving inadequate compensation for their skills and contributions.

On the government's front, there is ample room for improvement. Recognizing workers as the backbone of society, the government should establish a reasonable national minimum wage. Inadequate compensation not only affects the welfare of workers but also carries widespread societal implications. Therefore, there is a clear expectation for the government to prioritize fair wages and working conditions for Nigerian workers, acknowledging their indispensable role in maintaining the nation's prosperity.

Consequences of Neglecting Worker Welfare

Before the current administration, instances were rampant where state governments failed to pay workers' salaries on time, with some only providing partial payments. Such neglect towards worker welfare has led to tragic consequences, including reports of workers resorting to suicide out of frustration and children dropping out of school due to financial strain. These outcomes underscore the severity of the situation, highlighting the urgent need for intervention.

It is possible that research could uncover a connection between the neglect of worker welfare and the rise in levels of insecurity. While this is not meant to justify criminal behavior, it is important to note that financial pressure is a major factor in the "fraud triangle" and can significantly contribute to fraudulent activity. Addressing issues related to worker wages is crucial in reducing financial burdens and mitigating associated societal impacts, such as increased insecurity.

Determining a Fair Minimum Wage

While advocating for a minimum wage of four hundred and ninety four thousand naira by the Trade Union Congress and Nigerian Labour Congress might seem ideal, determining the appropriate minimum wage is a complex task. It involves considering factors such as the cost of living, inflation rates, and the financial capacity of employers, including governments at all levels.

Pushing for a substantial increase in the national minimum wage is appealing, but acknowledging economic realities and feasibility is crucial. State governments, often citing limited funds, must prioritize workers' welfare while maintaining fiscal responsibility and sustainability. Boosting internally generated revenue through initiatives like enhancing tax collection, investing in infrastructure, and promoting entrepreneurship could address this challenge.

Conclusion: A Vision for a Prosperous Nigeria

Achieving a fair and sustainable national minimum wage requires collaborative efforts among the government, businesses, and labour unions to establish an equitable and sustainable minimum wage for all stakeholders involved. It is essential to establish a robust mechanism for enforcing the national minimum wage to ensure that workers' rights are protected and upheld. As Nigeria navigates its economic challenges, prioritizing fair wages and worker welfare is not only a matter of social justice but also a crucial step towards building a prosperous and stable nation.

Author: Kenechukwu Aguolu   FCA, PMP, FCIA

The term "Japa,” is associated with Nigerians migrating to foreign countries in search of better opportunities, and has seen a significant increase in recent years. This trend, driven by the desire for economic empowerment and a safer living environment, has recently faced a slowdown. The depreciation of the naira has made emigration more expensive, and stricter immigration rules in popular destination countries have contributed to this deceleration.

The initial wave of Nigerian emigrants primarily sought economic empowerment and improved living standards for themselves and their families. However, in recent times, increasing insecurity within Nigeria has become a significant reason for people to leave. The growing levels of violence and instability have driven individuals to seek refuge in countries where the safety of lives and property is more guaranteed.

The decision to migrate is complex and comes with potential consequences. On one hand, successful emigration can lead to significant financial gains, better job opportunities, and superior educational prospects for children. On the other hand, it can result in cultural dislocation and initial difficulties in adapting to a new environment, among other challenges. Given these potential outcomes, it is essential to carefully weigh all variables before deciding to leave Nigeria. Factors such as age, educational background, skill set, family size, necessary documentation, financial requirements, and available migration routes must be thoroughly evaluated. The uncertainties inherent in the emigration process might make it less appealing for risk-averse people

With meticulous planning and execution, Japa can lead to the desired outcomes. The initial phase in a new country often presents challenges, requiring resilience, hard work, and appropriate skills to navigate successfully. Many find that their efforts eventually result in an enhanced quality of life and better opportunities for their children. Nonetheless, like any significant life venture, the outcomes of Japa can vary, with some individuals achieving success while others do not.

The increasing trend of emigration has significant implications for Nigeria, particularly in terms of brain drain. Skilled professionals such as doctors, project managers, engineers, and educators leaving the country puts pressure on critical sectors. For example, the healthcare system often faces shortages of qualified doctors due to this trend, which can greatly impact the nation's ability to provide adequate medical care. This loss of talent presents a major challenge to Nigeria's development and its ability to offer quality services to its citizens.

In response to these challenges, the role of the Nigerian government is crucial. To address the reasons driving citizens to emigrate, the government must prioritize improving welfare and security within the country. This involves creating more job opportunities, ensuring the safety of lives and properties, and enhancing the education and healthcare systems, among other measures. Additionally, improving the overall quality of life for Nigerians is essential. By tackling these fundamental issues, the government can reduce the incentives for emigration, encouraging citizens to invest their talents and efforts within Nigeria rather than seeking opportunities abroad.

The phenomenon of Japa is multifaceted, extending beyond the pursuit of economic empowerment to encompass a wide range of motivations, including the quest for safety and better living conditions. Although it seemingly offers the promise of a brighter future, it also brings substantial risks and challenges. Stressing the importance of careful planning and well-informed decision-making is essential for individuals contemplating this course of action. By understanding and addressing the underlying motivations behind Japa, the government can work towards fostering a more stable and prosperous Nigeria, ultimately reducing the drive for mass emigration.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate  in 2023, Atiku Abubakar, has told federal lawmakers that posterity will not be kind to them if they keep looking away from what he alleged is the “daylight robbery” surrounding the fuel subsidy regime of the Bola Tinubu-led administration.

Atiku also alleged that the Tinubu administration was diverting public funds through petrol subsidy, hence the refusal of the government to reveal how much is being spent on subsidy.

The former vice president was reacting to the Presidency’s debunking of claims that it is making provisions to pay the sum of N5.4trn for fuel subsidy in 2024.

Recalled the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun, had, in an Accelerated Stabilisation and Advancement Plan (ASAP), revealed that the government would be spending up to N5.4 trillion on oil subsidies in 2024.

Meanwhile, The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), reacting also to the presidency’s claim, said the revelation confirmed its stand that the Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC) administration is corrupt and deceitful.

The PDP, in a statement by its national publicity secretary Hon Debo Ologunagba, further demanded that the president immediately clear the air and come clean by “personally addressing Nigerians and ordering a public enquiry into the reported N5.4 trillion fuel subsidy under his watch.”

However, Atiku, in his own statement yesterday, said there is a need for the National Assembly to get to the bottom of the matter rather than focusing on frivolous issues.

“The National Assembly needs to be alive to its responsibilities, especially in the area of oversight. Posterity will not be kind to members of the National Assembly if they continue to look the other way while daylight robbery is taking place,” the former Vice President said.

He said the clandestine subsidy regime was one of the reasons investments in the oil sector had refused to come in.

Atiku added, “Tinubu has brought the shady nature of running  Lagos to the federal level. He claims subsidy is gone but his Special Adviser on Energy, Olu Verheijen, says they are intervening from time to time while his Finance Minister, Wale Edun, described subsidy removal as an ‘ongoing process’. A document authored by the Coordinating Minister of the Economy revealing how much subsidy is being paid is now being disowned by the very authors of the document.

“Both the World Bank and the IMF have revealed in separate reports that Nigeria is still paying petrol subsidies, but the Tinubu government refuses to come clean. Even a senior member of the APC had revealed that subsidy was beyond paid.

“For a man who claims to be on a mission to attract foreign direct investment, it is ironic that he cannot see that his policy flip flops and lies are capable of dissuading investors. He must come clean on this subsidy issue since he doubles as petroleum minister. The Tinubu administration should be courageous enough to own their policies and outcome with their full chest and responsible enough to be accountable for their actions to Nigerians.”

Atiku said the denial lends credence that money meant for the Federation Account, which ought to be shared to states and local governments, is being diverted without any form of accountability whatsoever.

 [Leadership]

Arsenal legend, Gilberto Silva, has predicted the Gunners to win the Premier League title next season over Manchester City.

Arsenal finished second position behind leaders Man City in the recently-concluded season.

Mikel Arteta’s side went toe-to-toe with Pep Guardiola’s side in the title race

The Premier League North London club finished the season with 89 points from 38 games, while City scored 91 points.

“It was so close [Arsenal’s Premier League title race with City]. I think, of course, at the end of the season for the players, the manager, everyone, it is a kind of disappointment for being so close and yet so far at points to get it,” Silva told Sky Sports.

“The confidence that you have done great and bounce back next season and do this what they need to do, I am very confident they can do it next season.”

[DailyPost]

A former senator, who represented Kaduna Central, Shehu Sani, yesterday urged the Kaduna State Government to recover all the funds allegedly diverted under the Nasir El-Rufai Administration.

The state House of Assembly accused El-Rufai and his aides of squandering N423 billion in eight years, an allegation the former governor denied.

The House received the report of the ad hoc committee set up to investigate all finances, loans and contracts awarded by the former governor.

The report indicted El-Rufai and many of his commissioners and aides.

Sani said the report vindicated his long-held opinion that there was massive mismanagement of funds by the last administration.

In a post on social media, the Senator stated: “The Kaduna Assembly has done a good job. I wish to congratulate them.

“The next step is to ensure the recovery of our stolen money…

 “For anyone who cared to go through that published report, I don’t know what ‘serving with integrity means’.

“Kaduna was a victim of two types of banditry; the one in our forests and the one in the Government House.

“They left behind estates and malls for their children and left behind a mountain of debt for the children of the poor.”

Sani said the House report vindicated his personal views.

“For eight years, I stood alone telling the people of Kaduna State and the country how our state was systematically looted…

“The people inside and outside the state were deceived with aesthetics and industrial-scale propaganda.

“They wrecked the economy of the state, … destroyed the lives and livelihoods of millions of people and used religion to divide our state.

 “Many politicians in the state were silenced out of fear of arrest, attacks by thugs or having their properties confiscated or demolished. I refused to be silenced.

“The Kaduna Assembly report is a vindication,” Sani said.

El-Rufai denied the allegations, describing the report that indicted him as “jaundiced.”

The House alleged that N423 billion of the state resources was siphoned under El-Rufa’i.

It mandated Governor Uba Sani to refer the former governor and others indicted aides to relevant security agencies for investigation.

Chairman of the ad-hoc committee and Deputy Speaker, Henry Magaji Danjuma, presented the report during plenary on Wednesday.

The report alleged that most of the loans obtained by the El-Rufai Administration were not used for the purpose for which they were secured, while due process was not followed in some cases.

The Speaker, Yusuf Liman, said the past administration’s financial activities left the state with huge liabilities.

The report was adopted and its recommendations were forwarded to the governor for immediate action.

The House alleged that the humongous withdrawals of cash in naira and dollars from the state’s coffers had no supporting records of utilisation.

It further alleged that El-Rufa’i connived with commissioners and heads of parastatals to defraud the state by issuing directives to the Kaduna Public Procurement Agency (KADPPA) to circumvent due process in  payment to contractors.

[TheNation]

The loss of majority in parliament by the African National Congress, ANC in the May 29, 2024 South African elections was a sunset for the continent. It means that the unrepentant Pan Africanist organisation with its vow to the mass of the people and unrepentant commitment to humanity as manifested in its unprecedented war against genocide in Palestine, might be compromised under a coalition.  

The uniqueness of the ANC in   South African and international politics is that it has never really been a political party. Rather, it is an all-comers  movement of people dedicated to freedom and social justice. It is built on a tripod: coalition of people with different ideologies and religions, the South African Communist Party which espouses socialism, and the Congress of South African Trade Unions, COSATU.  The current President Cyril Ramaphosa is from COSATU.

South Africa is an African promise. It rose out of the horizon after one of the bloodiest pages in human history was written not just in the blood of the African people, but also in that of thousands of our Cuban brothers who laid down their lives on our soil. Its struggles for freedom and land and, insistence that all human beings are imbued with the same endowments irrespective of colour or creed, was itself, a    fight for humanity.

The war against Apartheid which pitched humanity against racists and super powers like the United States and United Kingdom, brought out the beast in some and the best in liberation fighters like Chris Hani, Joe Slovo, Ruth First, Solomon Mahlangu and the Mandelas.

Even in their hour of victory, the South African people, under the ANC flag, were never vengeful. What they promised essentially was “a democratic society based on equality, non-racialism and non-sexism (and) a nation built by developing our different cultures, beliefs and languages as a source of our common strength.” Those gave the ANC victory at the polls. What last week, reduced the ANC’s    percentage vote to 40.18 per cent and its majority in parliament to 159 of 400 seats, is its inability to fulfil the other half of its 1994 promise. It was to build “an economy which grows through providing jobs, housing and education (and) a peaceful and secure environment in which people can live without fear.”

The rainbow nation now has a narrow choice. A coalition in which the ANC will have to make quite difficult choices.    

On the inevitable coalition,  the ANC’s National Spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri    informed that:  “The ANC has taken the position that we must all act in the interest of our country and its people, and work on a national consensus on the form of government that is best suited to move South Africa forward at this moment in our history.”

But the practical reality is that this could be a nightmare. The most straight forward, is a coalition with the Democratic Alliance, DA, which polled 21.8 per cent of the votes with 87 seats in parliament. This possible coalition will have 246 seats which automatically, will form government.      But this, literally, will be going to dinner with the Devil. Where the ANC is pro-people with welfare principles, the DA is more like a resurrection of the old ruling class. Where the former is a grassroots movement , the latter is mainly for the middle and upper classes drawing its strength from the old Apartheid ruling mass of Afrikaans. The DA’s origins are in the 1959 Progressive Party    which warned the then    ruling class against continuing    the Apartheid policy.

The next possible alliance is with the new uMkhonto we Sizwe, MK, party  led by former President Jacob Zuma. It was formed just five months to the elections and has caused the greatest upset in the history of the country’s elections. It also drew its support from the normal ANC political base, and is a major reason why the ANC lost its parliamentary majority.    The party with 14.58 per cent    of the votes and 58 seats in parliament, would give the ANC alliance a comfortable 217 seats in the National Assembly. But going into alliance with it could be like the ANC eating the humble pie. The ANC was led by Zuma which forced him to resign as the country’s President in 2018. Zuma has been battered, bruised and imprisoned.  In fact, the Constitutional Court barred him from running for parliament    over a contempt of court    conviction, but he remained on the ballot. Now, he is a king maker and may be in a position to determine    the political future of Ramaphosa as President of the country.

ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula said the ANC would not compromise its principles just to hang on to power: “I think the ANC has many factors to consider in terms of how it forms a government – both the stability of the country at large but also for the sake of having a government that still holds to the values of the ANC that it has long said that it serves.”

If the party is to stick to this principle, then the MK is its best choice of a coalition partner. But then, Zuma might ask for his pound of flesh by making the removal of his arch rival, Ramaphosa, as a condition.

A third option, is like no option: an alliance with the Economic Freedom Fighters, EFF, led by Julius Malema. He was the former ANC Youth Leader who was expelled by the party. If the MK is a radical party, the EFF is left of the MK. The EFF wants the appropriation of lands from the current owners who historically, stole them. It also wants the nationalization of the mines and banks to give economic power to the masses. It garnered 9.52 per cent of the votes and has 37 seats in parliament. A coalition with the ANC will give the alliance 196 seats which would need a broader coalition with a smaller party like the Inkhatha Freedom Party with 17. The problem is that this is essentially an ethnic party of Zulus. The other small party, the    Patriotic Alliance, PA, with nine seats, is a far right, anti-immigration party. Far worse than going to bed with the DA.

The decline of the ANC is not unexpected. When it had the masses and most of the world solidly behind it, its leaders chose to have the political kingdom hoping that the economic kingdom would be added to it. The reality is that to have majority rule with minority control of the economy , is a doomed plan. To have the Black Majority Vote without Black Economic Power, was bound to maintain South Africa’s economic Apartheid system. By the way, Mother Africa, Winnie Mandela, warned us against this, but we never listened.

One is reminded of carved-up Christmas turkeys when considering Nigeria and how both foreigners and its citizens plunder its resources. An Igbo proverb that refers to the guidelines for cultivating newly discovered farmland that belongs to no one in the community is “okata okolu” (farm as you may). The elders would declare a day on which the people would farm the land because no one owned it. Everyone gathers on the designated day and hour, and each person tills as much of the land as their strength carries them.

That’s how Nigeria has come to be. Prebendalism – the idea held by government officials that resources owned by the government are their own – allows citizens to plunder as much of the common resources as they can. To them, stealing government funds is not theft. But they would amputate a twelve-year-old who stole a phone somewhere in the north and lynch another who stole one thousand naira down south, but they would embrace government officials who stole billions of naira and offer them front pews in churches and mosques.

Since Nigeria doesn’t seem to belong to anyone as a geographical expression, plundering is the norm. Because of this, no one in Nigeria manages for the benefit of the people or the advancement of the country. Systematic class fraud is taking place, with the deliberate goal of crippling the economy and imploding the country.

This is the reason for the escalation of insecurity. Security personnel are also exempt. They, too, are Nigerians, and, like the rest, would gather anything they could, not believing that their country even exists. Generals embezzle money intended for arms and soldiers’ living expenses, while troops who dare to ask questions face court-martial, imprisonment, or dismissal. Police investigation and judgement by courts are now mostly to the highest bidders and politically connected. Therefore, corruption, the politicisation of national security, and a lack of any sense of patriotism are core causes of Nigeria’s current state of insecurity.

Three decades ago, Nigeria was considered to be among the world’s safest countries. For Nigerians, terrorism meant something entirely alien—a fairytale from distant lands. However, because the people in command and authority turned a blind eye or colluded for less than honourable reasons, terrorists and Janjaweed bandits have taken over forests in both the north and south of Nigeria.

There are underlying reasons for Nigeria’s insecurity, which the nation must deal with to have peace, growth, and progress. Symptoms are alerts to more serious underlying conditions. Ignored or dismissed symptoms frequently result in more difficult situations later on, when the underlying illnesses manifest. That is precisely what happened with Nigerian insecurity: the nation failed to nip in the bud the sources of insecurity.

Prebendal politics and unpatriotic political leaders are Nigeria’s main causes of insecurity. Even the most horrible of the others are copies of political corruption and unpatriotic leadership. As a signature, prebendal politicians, who embezzled the country’s common resources and left the populace stranded, hungry, and enraged, are to blame for terrorism, Janjaweed banditry, killer herdsmen, insurgency, militancy, cultism, ritual murders, and Yahoo Plus, among other forms of insecurity in the land.

Bad governance is a direct result of prebendal politics and a common feature that underpins and gives insecurity its wings.

Prebendal political players score so highly on the rating because they are the ones who steal public money in large lumps. They embezzle the funds intended for economic growth, job creation, and development. They should be appropriately viewed as economic terrorists, just like the other terrorists, militants, rebels, and bandits.

To counteract insecurity, it is therefore essential to overthrow prebendal politics and recover the loot of public officials in a manner akin to how the country handled the Abacha loot. Yes, prebendalism must be addressed with decisiveness. And stopping the feeding of government officials is the right place to start. There is a report that 30 governors spent over N950 billion on entertainment in 3 months! Only Nigeria and Africa feed their leaders; no country in the West does.

The rich feed the poor in the West, but in Nigeria and other parts of Africa, the impoverished feed the rich. In psychology, this is known as means-end inversion.

The next is asset declaration, which needs to be made public both before and after an individual assumes office. It is morally and legally unacceptable for a public official to conceal his wealth and income from his employers. He or she may choose to keep their privacy by not running for or accepting any public office at all. No one enters the kitchen if they don’t want to get heated.

Third, a new law that stipulates an extremely long sentence—possibly life or death—for corruption must be passed, and the fight against corruption must be apolitical and serious. Because it is evil, corruption ought to be regarded on par with armed robbery. In addition to being theft, corruption is a moral blight and a crime of betrayal. Because of this, dishonest government officials in China are executed. That country views it as a waste, sending corrupt officials to jail. As a result of this prudent management of public resources and zero tolerance for corruption, China has grown to become the largest economy in the world, possessing reserves exceeding $1 trillion. Compare that to Nigeria, which has less than $35 billion in reserves and where prebendal public officials plunder the commonwealth.

In Nigeria, politicians founded a terrorist movement and brought in bandits to prosecute elections. Boko Haram terrorists had government positions in their early years. One even held the position of commissioner before they were forced underground and withdrew into the Sambisa jungle. Dealing with them decisively is challenging because they had been politically involved in the past.

In a similar spirit, Abubakar Kawu Baraje, a former chieftain of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), traced the origin of the current insecurity in the country to the influx of bandits from neighbouring countries like Sierra Leone, Mali, Senegal, Niger, and Chad. Honourable Baraje then told Nigerians about how these Janjaweed bandits were brought into Nigeria to ensure electoral victory in the 2015 presidential election and then left on their own, which led them to start kidnapping for ransom and extorting citizens for taxes. The fundamental reason it has been difficult to weed the bandits out is the political undertone of banditry. Videos and images have surfaced of their leaders posing with a governor and sporting turbans from traditional monarchs in the north.

Likewise, politicians have used cultists as private armies and political thugs to cause unrest in Nigeria. For their elections and security, the politicians arm the cultists and provide them with political cover, and help them get away with murder and other serious crimes. Since the politicians cannot retrieve the guns they illegally bought for the thugs and cultists from the black market, many of them turn into armed robbers and kidnappers.

Under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, killer herdsmen gained the greatest impetus and boost. Anywhere they could, they let their animals graze. They’d become so brazen and reckless that they were uprooting crops and feeding their cattle, even going so far as to set farms on fire to force the early sprouting of grass so the animals would have food while the farmers starved. Many farmers who ventured to challenge the brazenness were raped, wounded, or killed.

The tension between farmers and killer herdsmen has also intensified after a governor revealed to Nigerians on national television that he was involved in a project aimed at resettling an ethnic group that had become stranded around Africa in the country. Communities have been sacked as a result, and their attackers have taken control of the sacked communities. What this means is that politicians are the ones bringing the killer herdsmen into the country as well. Effective containment of the situation is also hampered by the killer herdsmen’s political cover. Even on the floor of the Nigerian senate, some senators argue that herdsmen and their cattle should be allowed to enjoy the rights of citizens and should graze anywhere they may.

Insurgents and militants are engaged in economic conflicts of marginalisation as democracy has failed to bring about progress and employment possibilities. The loud protests against the Niger Delta’s oil not helping the people living there while it develops other regions of the nation are known as the Niger Delta militancy. Thus, it is a fight for inclusion and social justice, a fight for resource control as seen in other federations.

A president showed audacity by calling the Igbo ethnic group, which has potentially over 40 million people, just a dot on a circle and treating them as such. That was how the South East, which was the safest zone in Nigeria, was allowed to become home to unknown gunmen.

In addition, numerous types of insecurity and violent crimes have been brought on by economic stagnation among young people in general. With the economy growing worse, the majority of young people who graduated more than ten years ago have no chance of finding work. The outrageous displays of extravagant wealth exhibited by politicians without any labour have also instilled in young people the desire to become wealthy overnight. This led to the advent of Yahoo Boys and Yahoo Plus. Yahoo Plus is the Yahoo Boys who, supposedly, kill for rituals to spur their Yahoo activities, no thanks to the prebendal politicians and their primitive acquisition of wealth.

Bottom line: the political elites are responsible for the different types of insecurity in Nigeria. The solution to insecurity in Nigeria has therefore one silver bullet: deal with the prebendal politics and the identified root causes of insecurity decisively, and their manifestations will vanish in no time.

Dr Law Mefor, an Abuja-based forensic and social psychologist, is a fellow of The Abuja School of Social and Political Thought; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Twitter: @Drlawsonmefor.

The results of South Africa’s 2024 elections further illustrate what pro-democracy groups have always canvassed - good governance/leadership is tribe and race-blind.

South Africa comprises people of diverse origins, cultures, languages, and religions, including Indian South Africans, who constitute 2.7% of the population, the 8.2% coloured South Africans,  and the indigenous majority Blacks who make up more than 81% of the nation’s estimated 62 million inhabitants.

Much of the atrocities wrought by the authoritarian, minority white regimes that dominated the political, social, and economic life in the former apartheid enclaves of South Africa and South-West Africa (now Namibia) from 1948 to the early 1990s, are irreversible.

Indeed, no one expects the damage of the institutionalized racial segregation unleashed by the White South Africans on the Black majority population to disappear within 30 years.

 After decades of anti-apartheid struggles waged internally and internationally, led by African countries, the then-Organization of African Unity (OAU) and the Commonwealth Organization, while some powerful nations such as the United States and Britain, either lukewarm or in support of the apartheid regimes, the African National Congress (ANC), an off-shoot of the liberation movement, emerged as the dominant political party in South Africa from the first multi-racial elections of 1994.

However, the ANC must now undertake a serious introspection of its unimpressive scorecard for 30 years and losing parliamentary majority in the 2024 elections.

The legendary Nelson Mandela, alias ‘Madiba’ the icon of the anti-apartheid struggle gave expression to the axiom “from prison to the presidency,” by winning the presidency in the 1994 elections after his incarceration for 27 years for challenging the apartheid system.

Revered and praised for his conciliatory, non-violent philosophy even in the face of inhumane provocations, Madiba did not only succeed in relatively uniting a racially divided South Africa to create a “Rainbow Nation” that attempted to harness its diversity, he also led by example, stepping aside after serving for just one four-year term in office. He died as a World Statesman in December 2013.

Unfortunately, African leaders, including those from Mandela’s home country, have failed to emulate or follow his example.

Under South Africa’s constitution, the party or coalition that wins a majority vote and at least 201 of the 400 Parliamentary seats produces the President of the republic.

From the 1994 elections, Mandela became South Africa’s President as the flag bearer of the ANC with a majority vote of 62.5%. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which also draws much support from the black homeland of KwaZulu, came third, with 10.54%.

The then-main opposition white-dominated National Party (NP) came second with 20.39% vote, and later morphed into the Democratic Party (DP) and now the Democratic Alliance (DA).

Given the dynamism of politics, there have been realignment of political forces since 1994, when the voter turnout was 86.87%, but the much expected positive transformation of black lives under the ANC has failed to materialise.

Mandela’s then-deputy, Thabo Mbeki, more an academic than a typical politician, succeeded his boss as President of South Africa following the 1999 elections, after an ANC win with 66.36% vote. This was at a time when the opposition parties were in disarray, with the IFP getting 8.54% and the DP, just 9.54% of the vote, from a record voter turnout of 89.30%.

Mbeki was re-elected president in 2004 but could not complete his second four-year term due to serious disputes within the ANC. This resulted in Mbeki’s replacement as ANC leader and President of South Africa, by Kgalema Motlanthe from 2008 until another election in 2009.

At the 2009 election, the ANC fielded veteran and combative trade unionist Jacob Zuma, President Mbeki’s deputy who led the move for his boss’ ouster.

Internal wrangling within the ruling party worsened, resulting in the formation of the Congress of the People (COPE) by disgruntled ANC members and the strengthening of the opposition.

Consequently, the ANC got 65.9% of the vote in the 2009 election, while COPE ate into Black votes with 7.24% leaving the main opposition DA with 16.66%.

A combination of the intra-party differences exacerbated by ANC’s inability to deliver on its promises of Black empowerment and the creation of equal opportunities to make the lives of the majority population better have dealt a lethal blow to the black-dominated ruling party.

Zuma was re-elected as South African President in 2014 but, as a controversial persona dogged by scandals, his vigorous attempts to stamp his authority on the ANC divided the party the more.

The erstwhile party of the Great Madiba has thus, seen its share of popular votes on a steady decline, to 62.15% in 2014, while that of the main opposition DA rose to 22.23% with another ANC breakaway group, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), getting a slice of 6.35%.

Voter turnout declined to 73.48% in 2014 as a further demonstration of disaffection among the population toward the ANC-led government.

However, even after being replaced as leader of the ANC by deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, a business mogul, who succeeded Zuma as President of South Africa after the 2019 presidential election, the veteran labour leader does not want to go down alone.

In the 2019 election, the ANC won with a further reduced majority of 57.5%, while the DA got 20.77% and the EFF 10.8%, with voter turnout of 66.05% - the lowest since 1994.

Meanwhile, with several allegations of corruption still hanging on his neck and after serving a term for contempt of court, Zuma would appear to have reinvented himself politically.

In his determination to become a life-long ANC member, the 82-year-old hijacked the uMkhonto weSizwe (Zulu for 'Spear of the Nation'), or MK Party founded in 2023 and named after the paramilitary wing of the ANC.

At the 2024 election last Sunday, Zuma ran as the presidential candidate of the MK Party, and came fourth with 7.62% of the vote, according to provisional results announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).

The main opposition DA, which had John Steenhuisen, 48, as its flag bearer, made further gains by scoring 26.34%, while the EFF, led by Julius Malema, 43, got 8.1% of the vote.

Ramaphosa is seeking re-election on the platform of the ANC and as widely expected, the black-dominated ruling party has for the first time since 1994 failed to win parliamentary majority of votes in South Africa.

 The ANC managed less than 43% of the vote, and will now be forced to enter into an uncomfortable arrangement with rival parties to form a government, an uncharted course in the country’s political history.

Even by South African standards, the ANC’s 2024 electoral performance from some 27.6 million registered voters and a turnout of 58.64% from the country’s estimated population of 62 million speaks volumes.

There was great hope and expectations that Madiba’s would re-write South Africa’s dark history. But it has failed most spectacularly to deliver good governance after wresting political power from the apartheid minority white rulers.

Acknowledging the party’s underwhelming performance as a development with potentially dire consequences for its relevance and continued existence as a big player in South African politics, ANC senior officials are now suggesting the formation of a National Unity Government even as the main opposition parties position themselves as king-makers.

The World is watching with a keen interest the political development of South Africa.

A strong message for African leaders is that as the majority of Blacks in South Africa voted out the obnoxious apartheid minority White regime in South Africa, people of all races can/will punish bad governance/leadership, anywhere in the World irrespective of race or colour!

*Paul Ejime is a Global Affairs Analyst and Consultant on Peace & Security and Governance Communications

The nation was only a few steps away from potential chaos and confusion on Tuesday. We had a taste of the gloom that has been staring the nation in the face for a while with Labour flexing its muscles and threatening social and industrial peace. Not without justifiable cause, I must say. What with reckless spending assailing our sensibilities you would think the engine of public spending has gone out of control, or indeed broken down. How can anybody justify the mindless purchase of Sports Utility Vehicles, alias SUVs, one costing N160 million for each of the Federal legislators? This is an Assembly in which my old friend, Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole, sits as a Senator. He felt uneasy at first at the thought and raised a feeble protest. He, indeed, apologized for the protest he raised on Channels Television when he got to the floor of the Red Chambers a few days later. How can anybody defend the endless stretch of the Presidential convoy of Bola Tinubu that was witnessed in Lagos—about twice now? I had thought it was President Joe Biden that was in town. I had thought that Joe Biden, menaced by the heat of desperate Mr. Trump that The New York Times has said again is unfit to be President, was here to cool off. The New York Times’ first unflattering testimonial for Mr. Trump was in 2015. As part of the insensitive posture and unthinking of the Administration is the plan to build a N15 billion official residence for the Vice-President.

All of last week, the Labour principally made up of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) led by Joe Ajaero and Festus Osifo’s Trade Union Congress (TUC) was determined to bare its fangs to press home their agitation for a new minimum wage regime. All of last week, they had asked their members to be on standby for last-minute instructions for a showdown. As of Monday, the air was thick with a foreboding of chaos and confusion, and the nation was made to hold its breath. Their unassailable argument was that in the economic circumstances of today, with the cost of living shooting through the roof, the current minimum wage of N30,000 is no longer realistic. At first, Labour themselves shot sky-high pressing for N615,000 per month as minimum wage for a worker. Later the figure came down to N494,000. The Federal Government first offered N48,000; it moved it to N57,000, but Labour described the government’s offer as “unserious.” As is in the nature of negotiations, the Labour’s first salvo at negotiation was a demand of a maximum of N497, 000 and the Federal Government seemingly testing waters came off with an offer of N48,000, later it jerked it up to N54,000. It raised it again slightly to N57,000. Osifo then had to say: “Our N494K demand is not fixated.”

The NLC president, Joe Ajaero attributed the minimum wage of N615, 000 tabled to the current economic situation in the country and he blamed the breakdown of negotiations on the position of the government and the Organized Private Sector. In his words: “despite earnest efforts to reach an equitable agreement, less than reasonable action of the Government and the Organized Private Sector has led to a breakdown in negotiations.” Labour’s “cost of living estimate” shows that a worker would require N270,000 to feed for 30 days and transportation would cost him N110,000. The Director-General of the Federal Budget Office said the current personnel cost for 1.5 million workers is N5trillion. If the government accedes to the Labour demand of N615,000, it would bring the personnel cost of the Federal workers to N11 trillion. The Federal Government has shifted again a little; it will consider N60,000 as the minimum wage. But Labour is insisting that nothing less than N100,000 would be acceptable.

To bring a quick end to the strike, President Bola Tinubu said he was committed to implementing a National Minimum wage that might be higher than N60,000. How much higher it was not spelt out. Even if Tinubu was prepared to agree to a higher offer, the state governors and the private sector are to be carried along. This is because payment of a minimum wage has a nationwide application. It is the least any employer of labour throughout the country is expected to pay his worker. When in the language of Ajaero the strike was relaxed, not suspended or called off, it was agreed that negotiation would continue for a week to arrive at a figure acceptable to all the parties—the two tiers of government and the private sector. The Federal Government team was led by George Akume, an experienced administrator and former Governor of Benue State. With him is the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu.

For the strike to have maximum bite the nation was plunged into darkness as the national grid was shut down, the banks were closed, dockworkers shut the ports, and airport operations were paralyzed. The Railway is traditionally, indeed historically the home of national strikes. It came as no surprise that there were no train services. The existing N30,000 minimum wage was inherited from President Buhari who had also inherited N18,000 as minimum wage from President Jonathan whose Administration sanctioned it in 2011. I recall Buhari’s passionate plea to Labour in 2018 to get workers to return to work. He pleaded with them to show greater understanding, especially in the light of what he described as gargantuan problems his administration inherited. He made a particular reference to infrastructural development his Administration had embarked upon with very lean resources.

He spoke of missed opportunities between and 2015, when, as he was wont to say, the nation had huge resources at its disposal. He said: “There is no part of the country I haven’t been to, having attempted to be President four times. I know the conditions of our roads. The rails were literally killed: there was no power…” despite the humongous amount said to have been spent in the sector. Speaking for him during negotiations to avert the strike, Boss Mustapha, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, told the unions: “The concern is not only for the welfare of the workers but also every other thing should be taken on board…So, it is a balance of the welfare of the workforce with the effect of the new minimum wage and the economy. We yearn to go above basic social protection for Nigerian worker but also tie it to the ability to pay, because many states are even having difficulty meeting the basic minimum wage.” Boss Mustapha said as of the time, 27 states out of 36 are at the moment encountering difficulties paying the then minimum wage of N18,000. It is the same argument in government circles.

In my view, this is the crux of the matter; it is where the problem lies. There are compelling arguments on both sides. How can N30,000 carry anybody in the economic circumstances of today and the cost of living triggered largely by the withdrawal of petroleum subsidy with its ripple effects, and the intractable insecurity ravaging farming zones of the country? On the other hand, a government which owes arrears in the payment of the current one will see paying anything higher as a pipe dream. Unfortunately, government functionaries are not setting the right example and the right tone. There is a display of opulence everywhere. Our governors and even the President live at practically no cost to them. They are fed by the state; their vehicles are maintained and fueled by the state. Their lifestyle is obscene. In other lands, hardly can you tell a senior government official, a minister, or any other ranking public servants from the ordinary citizens. Sometimes, you have the feeling that they are emancipating! Whether it was Obama or George Bush, they looked more battered in office than before they went into the White House. Indeed, Obama became an old man in no time with grey hairs mushrooming all over his head. As I did ask in 2018 on this subject of public spending: In what way had UK Theresa May or Donald Trump changed since they got into office, whether in their manner of dressing or in their physical appearance?

But no sooner do Nigerians get into office than they begin to bloat with their complexion glowing and all potholes on their cheeks filled up. They overdress you would think it is their wedding day. I recall Peter Obi once revealing to us that when he assumed office as governor, he found that a cow was being killed every day for real, imagined, or anticipated visitors of about 50 persons to Government House. He had to stop the wastage. Enterprising newspapers should dig out photographs of our public functionaries before they were elected or appointed barely a year ago and how they look today.

Michelle Obama said to Oprah Winfrey in conversation over her book, Becoming, that President Obama got the bill every month for every dish that the White House kitchen served his family. “They count the number of peanuts and you get the bill at the end of the month. You pay for your guests and the food they eat…You get the bill.” In 2018 I accused President Buhari of being lily-livered for his reluctance to confront the National Assemblymen, who were and still are scandalously the highest-paid in the world. Professor Itse Sagay blew the lid to the whole world that each Nigerian Federal senator earns N29 million a month. The figure following the strike by the Labour Unions this week has been re-issued to circulate in the social media. The figure was never confirmed nor denied by the Senate, nor have they been outraged that both Prof. Sagay and former President Obasanjo “scandalized” them. Although Obasanjo did not give any figure, his language on the subject was unprintable! The only voice on it came from Senator Shehu Sani, the irrepressible activist, who put it at N14 million, exclusive of some allowances. In the United States, a senator is paid $174, 000 (US Dollars) a year, followed by Canada $154,000 (US Dollars) annually; and Germany $119, 500 (US Dollars) yearly. Britain pays an MP (Member of Parliament) $105, 400 (US Dollars) a year. I invite my colleague, Eddie Madunagu to convert the figures into Naira for us to see. Some other mathematician may wish to work it out and throw the Naira equivalent into our faces. I have not bothered to update the figures. These were 2018 payrolls. That year, the then US House Speaker Paul Ryan was sleeping in his office because he could not afford the rent to keep two homes. His family was living outside Washington.

With the opulence and indulgences of our public officials, executive or legislative, how can anyone persuade workers that Nigeria cannot afford N70,000 as minimum wage? It will be interesting to see how the debate will go in the National Assembly when an Executive Bill is prepared and taken there after the Federal Executive Council and the Council of State must have sanctioned what the new minimum wage should be.

Having said that, I hasten to state that the timing of a minimum wage in Nigeria today requires deep reflection. There are fears of inflation rippling through the land afresh should there be a raise in minimum wage heralded by so much noise-making. The unions have no control over inflation, rising prices, and the calculation of the market women and transporters who are keeping their ears to the ground waiting for the outcome of negotiations. There will be rejigging and restructuring in companies to be able to accommodate the new level of human capital costs. Companies will worry about asset replacement costs, taxes, and reserves. All that will in the end lead to price hikes, job erasure, and a bourgeoning labour market growing still, which will in turn have security implications. To curb insecurity, special incentives will have to be worked out for the security agents which may necessitate contemplation of higher taxes! According to reports about 300 companies have shut down and nearly as many are reassessing their continuing operations! In the end, the new minimum wage becomes a vicious circle—going round and round in circles but getting to nowhere in particular! Arguably, perhaps; but it is clear to me that the gains are all illusions. According to the Daily Times issue of November 16, 1979, the salary approved by the Senate for President Shehu Shagari was N50,000 a year, for Vice-President Alex Ekwueme, N30,000a year and for a Senator N17,000 annually. That was 45 years ago. We can all see where we are today. At the end of every struggle, the worker comes out worse. And he goes again in search of another elusive victory by declaring yet another strike. What then is to be done?