Very few business organisations are as lucky as NNPCL, Nigeria’s state-owned oil company founded over 50 years ago. Since its founding, the corporation has consistently failed to perform its basic functions and meet its organisational objectives; and rather than being liquidated or put up for sale for these failures, NNPC routinely undergoes some form of moulting, shedding its skin and assuming a new look. The façade might look brilliant, but it’s only skin-deep.

NNPC was founded about the same time, or earlier than successful global state-owned oil companies like Saudi Aramco, owned by Saudi government; Petronas (Malaysian government; Equinor ASA (formerly Statoil, owned by Norway) and Petrobras, owned by Brazil.

While these other ones have grown into transnational giants with oil fields and refineries across the globe, NNPC has become a cesspool of corruption, incompetence and decadence. But the corporation is very adept at playing games and worming itself into the heart of politicians, just to stay alive. This month, the government changed its status as a monopolist, responsible for sole importation of petroleum products, to a monopsonist, the sole buyer of Dangote Refinery’s petrol. NNPC is the ultimate amoeba of Corporate Nigeria, and the implications are worrisome.

It was Aliko Dangote himself that announced that the federal government had mandated the NNPC to be the sole off-taker for petrol from his refinery. It has many implications for availability and pricing of the product. After many years of operating as an inefficient, corruption-ridden monopolist, exclusively importing fuel for years, the corporation has just turned into a monopsonist – a single buyer of Dangote’s petrol. In many economies, monopolies enjoy high profits and sometimes efficiency due to lack of competition, but in the case of NNPC, Nigerians were served with persistent fuel scarcity; inefficient business models and opacity in operations.

If the corporation could not deliver imported fuel to Nigerians, what’s the guarantee that it will manage the distribution of Dangote petrol without hiccups? How did NNPC incur a $6 billion indebtedness to its offshore petrol suppliers when its local customers were even paying in advance for the products? This indebtedness has cut off petrol supplies into the country and led to the acute scarcity we have today. What is the guarantee that NNPC will not owe Dangote and mess up fuel distribution in the country?

The inefficiencies inherent in its operations would greatly impede NNPC’s capacity to purchase and distribute products to other retailers. How would the transactions be funded? Credit sales? Bank credit? IOUs? Is the corporation credit worthy? Note that the Dangote Group is still indebted to the tune of about $3 billion to some Nigerian banks, being part of the loans secured to fund the construction of the complex.

Can the Group therefore afford to be further weighed down with an indeterminable exposure to a dysfunctional state enterprise? In its 2023 audited annual report, the corporation announced that it spent a whopping N7 billion on unspecified items lumped as ‘’others’’, while N10 billion was spent on NNPC Foundation. What constitutes the ‘’others’’? Such opacity is not permitted in modern business practices driven by good corporate governance.

As a sole off-taker, NNPC has become a major determiner of petrol price at fuel stations across the country. This is why Dangote could not announce the price at which his product would be sold at the pumps. ‘’That depends on NNPC’’, he told reporters last Monday when asked the retail pump price, adding, ‘’the federal executive council has asked the NNPC to determine the price’’. In other words, the country is still in a situation in which the government, instead of the market, remains the fixer of petrol price. That puts the Tinubu administration in a bind, with the immediate consequence being that the government will continue to face the wrath of labour unions whenever prices move up.

Petrol subsidy was expected to die a natural death as full deregulation kicks in once the Dangote Refinery commences production. The government was expected to completely hand off price-fixing duties; and allow the regulators to oversight the business, the way the CBN manages the banking industry. But since NNPC is still involved as a buyer’s monopoly (another name for monopsony), the refinery might be ‘squeezed’ to settle at a controlled price. Alternatively, the government may continue to subsidize the product – buy high from the refinery and sell lower to Nigerians.

Either way, a pricing dispute between the refinery and NNPC is inevitable, and that would be bad for Dangote. In trying to fend off pressures from labour and motorists, the government may shift the blame on Dangote for being excessive in its pricing, instigating the regulators in the mid-stream and low-stream segments of the market (who had never been particularly fond of Aliko Dangote and his refinery) to clamp down on the business mogul. I pity Aliko Dangote. His patriotism has become his albatross. He can’t say ‘’No’’ to this government; and the President, being the Minister of Petroleum, doesn’t brook disagreement. Interesting days are ahead!

My take is that NNPC should no longer enjoy any monopolistic or monopsonist status because it is incapable of managing its own affairs. Its bloated, inept, crooked and opaque. Dangote Refinery should be allowed the freedom to appoint as many off-takers or distributors as possible. In fact, there’s no reason why the refinery cannot even own its own filling stations either solely or in partnership with existing outlets, and sell directly to Nigerians, as it happens in other countries. Nigerians have expected that the new refinery will end perennial fuel scarcity and long queues. My hope has been that petrol would hover between N500 and N700 per litre at the pumps. But with this new arrangement of inserting NNPC into the mix, the prospects are daunting.

Chief Ajuri Ngelale, the Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Media and Publicity, has commenced an indefinite leave of absence attributed to pressing family medical challenges.

In a statement on Saturday, Ngelale revealed that he had submitted a memo to the Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila, informing him of the development.

The leave will affect his roles not only as the President Tinubu’s spokesperson but also as the Special Presidential Envoy on Climate Action and Chairman of the Presidential Steering Committee on Project Evergreen.

Ngelale described the decision as “agonizing,” saying it was made after extensive consultations with his family over the past several days.

He cited a “vexatious medical situation” that has worsened at home as the primary reason for his leave.

“While I fully appreciate that the ship of state waits for no man, this agonizing decision — entailing a pause of my functions as the Special Adviser to the President on Media & Publicity and Official Spokesperson of the President; Special Presidential Envoy on Climate Action, and Chairman, Presidential Steering Committee on Project Evergreen — was taken after significant consultations with my family over the past several days as a vexatious medical situation has worsened at home,” he wrote.

The president’s spokesman expressed his intention to return to work when circumstances permit, saying, “I look forward to returning to full-time national service when time, healing, and fate permit.”

Ngelale requested privacy for himself and his family during the challenging period.

The leave comes amid President Tinubu’s ongoing state visit to China where the Nigerian leader has held discussions with President Xi Jinping and participated at the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Summit.

[thewhistler]

Flora Ugwunwa won silver for Nigeria in the women’s javelin F54 final at the ongoing Paris 2024 Paralympics on Saturday.

This marks Ugwunwa’s third consecutive Paralympics medal, following gold medals in Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2021.

The Nigerian athlete threw 19.26 meters to claim the second position on the podium and secure silver medal ahead of Salehi Elham of Iran.

She made her silver winning throw after the second attempt but could not improve on it despite four more attempts.

The medal is Nigeria’s first in Para-Athletics, and the country’s fourth medal overall at the ongoing Paralympic Games.

Nurkhon Kurbanova of Uzbekistan, Ugwunwa’s fierce rival, won gold medal with a 21.12 meters.

Kurbanova’s throw broke Ugwunwa’s former world record of 20.25 meters she had set at Rio 2016.

The Uzbek had lost the gold medal to Ugwunwa four years ago and had to settle for silver.

Kurbanova had dominated the six-athlete final, throwing beyond 20 meters on each attempt.

The 30-year-old broke Ugwunwa’s record on her third throw, registering 20.27 meters before breaking her own record in her fifth attempt.

Onyinyechi Mark won Nigeria’s first gold medal after outlifting her opponents in the powerlifting finals in Friday.

Her victory earned Team Nigeria their third medal at the Paris Paralympics.

On Wednesday, Esther Nworgu won the silver medal in the women’s up to 41kg para-powerlifting event.

Eniola Bolaji also won a bronze medal in the women’s singles SL3 badminton event a few days ago.

[TheCable]

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Majeed Dahiru
(Newspaper Columnist and Energy Security Advocate)

Topic: Fuel Price Hike: The People's Agony

Date: 7th September, 2024

Join Zoom Meeting
https://zoom.us/j/92877141732?pwd=VEJWb29OL2VVekZUTHRpdWYxK0xxZz09

Meeting ID: 928 7714 1732
Passcode: 600206

Since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, the economic hardships faced by Nigerians have only intensified. While the populace was already grappling with the rising cost of living and dwindling purchasing power, recent developments have exacerbated the situation, leaving many wondering if the nation’s plight has gone from bad to worse, from frying pan to fire.

The latest blow came as the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) increased the pump price of petrol yesterday, from ₦568 to ₦855, ₦897 (depending on the location per litre). The move has no doubt sent shockwaves through every sector of the economy, and kept tongues wagging, even as people have begun to ask if President Tinubu-led government has a human face.  For a country where transportation costs dictate the price of virtually every good and service, this increase feels like an unforgivable betrayal to a populace already on its knees.

It will be recalled that when Tinubu took office, there was a glimmer of hope that his administration would bring relief to millions of Nigerians struggling under the weight of inflation, unemployment, and poverty. However, instead of easing the burden, the government’s policies have only deepened the crisis. The removal of fuel subsidies, which many saw as necessary for long-term economic stability, has had immediate and painful consequences. Prices of goods and services have skyrocketed, and the daily life of the average Nigerian has become a test of endurance.

In fact, the recent gasoline price hike feels like the final straw for many Nigerians. Public transportation costs have surged, making it even more difficult for workers to commute, while businesses that were already grappling with higher operational costs are now in for a bigger challenge. This domino effect is expected to push more Nigerians into poverty, further widening the gap between the rich and the poor.

The federal government’s justification for the increase has been met with skepticism and anger. Officials argue that the hike is necessary to stabilize the economy and reduce the burden of subsidies on government finances.  For instance, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser, Information and Strategy to President Tinubu has defended the increase, which took effect on September 3, 2024, bringing the average cost to N897 per liter. He suggested that relief may come with the operationalization of the Dangote Refinery and other local refineries, which could help stabilize fuel prices in the long run.

However, for the millions of Nigerians who can barely afford a meal, this explanation rings hollow. The question on everyone’s mind is: How much more can we endure?

In fact, the sense of frustration and helplessness is palpable. Many are beginning to question whether this government understands the realities on the ground or if it is completely out of touch with the daily struggles of the masses. The perception is that while the elite continue to live comfortably, the rest of the country is being pushed closer to the brink.

As Nigerians brace for even tougher times ahead, one cannot help but wonder if the worst is yet to come. The phrase “from frying pan to fire” seems apt to describe the current situation, each new policy, instead of alleviating the suffering, only seems to add fuel to the fire.

The federal government must urgently reassess its approach and consider the immediate needs of the people. Otherwise, the social fabric of the nation could unravel, leading to unrest and instability. The question remains: how much more will Nigerians be asked to endure before their voices are truly heard?

Without a doubt, the sudden increase in petrol prices yesterday in Nigeria is a stark reminder of the government’s insensitivity to the plight of its citizens. For many Nigerians, who are already struggling under the weight of economic hardships, this hike feels like being pushed from the frying pan into the fire. The cost of living has skyrocketed in recent months, with basic necessities becoming increasingly unaffordable for the average person. This latest move by the government only deepens the despair, further eroding the public’s trust in their leaders.

This price increase, coming at a time when the country is grappling with inflation and high unemployment rates, shows a lack of empathy and a disregard for the well-being of the people. The government’s decision to raise fuel prices without providing any cushioning measures or alternatives for the populace demonstrates a lack of a human face in policymaking. It suggests that the government is more concerned with balancing its books than with the daily struggles of the citizens, who are now forced to choose between fuel and food.

The voices of ordinary Nigerians reflect the widespread anger and frustration. “This is not governance; it is punishment,” says Chukwudi, a commercial bus driver in Lagos. “How do they expect us to survive when everything is going up except our income?” Another resident, Fatima, a small business owner at Ogba, in Ikeja, Lagos, laments, “We voted for change, but what we got is suffering. The government is pushing us to the brink.” These sentiments are echoed across the country, where many feel abandoned by those in power.

The consequences of this price hike are far-reaching. Transportation costs will rise, affecting the prices of goods and services nationwide. Small businesses, already struggling to stay afloat, may be forced to close, leading to further job losses. The ripple effect will undoubtedly exacerbate the existing economic challenges, making it even harder for the average Nigerian to make ends meet. The government’s actions seem to be pushing the country towards a breaking point, where the social fabric could be torn apart by widespread discontent.

In light of these developments, it is clear that the government needs to urgently reassess its approach. There is a need for policies that are not only economically sound but also socially responsible. Nigerians deserve a government that listens to their concerns and makes decisions with a human face. The current trajectory is unsustainable and, if not addressed, could lead to even greater unrest and instability in the country.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) swept into power on the wings of the promises of “Change” in 2015, and “Renewed Hope” in 2023, respectively for a country battered by economic mismanagement, corruption, and insecurity. The APC’s message of renewed hope under President Bola Tinubu was meant to inspire trust, but for millions of Nigerians today, that hope feels more like a mirage, especially as the economic reforms initiated by the administration seem to cause more pain than relief.

Upon assuming office, President Tinubu made bold moves that his government claimed were necessary to “heal” the economy. The removal of fuel subsidies was one such step, aimed at redirecting resources towards more impactful development projects. The administration argued that the subsidies were draining the country’s finances and benefiting only a few at the expense of the many. However, this has led to an increase in fuel prices, which in turn spiked the cost of living. Transportation, food, and even basic household goods are now beyond the reach of many ordinary Nigerians.

“The government said things would get better, but it seems like it is only getting worse,” laments Iya Wale, a market woman in Ikeja. “I can no longer afford the same things I used to buy for my family. My children eat less, and the money I make is not enough to sustain us.”

This sentiment is echoed across the country, as people wrestle with the day-to-day realities of surviving under a government that promises healing while implementing policies that compound their struggles. For those at the bottom of the economic ladder, the APC’s renewed hope is quickly losing its luster.

At a busy bus stop in Surulere, Lagos, an elderly man in his 60s named Musa angrily voices his frustration: “I voted for change, but what I see today is hardship like I’ve never known before. Fuel is too expensive, food is too expensive, and now they say they are sharing palliatives, but I haven’t seen a grain of rice reach my house.”

Musa’s concerns are shared by millions. The much-talked-about palliatives, intended to cushion the blow from the economic reforms, have yet to reach the most vulnerable. Those who do receive them often report receiving amounts too meager to make any meaningful impact.

Ngozi, a schoolteacher in Enugu, expresses her worry for the future: “The cost of education has increased, and my salary remains the same. I fear for my children’s future. How can I afford to send them to school if things continue this way?”

The APC administration has outlined several plans aimed at long-term economic stability. These include infrastructure development, improvements in the power sector, and job creation initiatives. However, many Nigerians are asking a critical question: how much longer do they have to endure the pain before they see any tangible benefits?

As government officials speak of reforms aimed at revitalizing the economy, many citizens feel they are bearing the brunt of policies that serve only to benefit the elites. One Lagos commuter noted with bitterness, “Those in power don’t feel this pain. They still live lavishly while we suffer. If this is the hope we voted for, then we are truly lost.”

The wide gap between government officials and the masses has never been more pronounced. As Nigerians face fuel hikes, inflation, and soaring costs of basic goods, many are left questioning if their voices matter to those at the helm of power. It seems as if, in the bid to fix the economy, the very essence of people’s daily struggles is overlooked.

In a biting tone, a civil servant in Port Harcourt says, “When they talk of a sacrifice, who is really sacrificing? It’s us, the common people. They sit in their big houses, eating well, while we worry about affording a meal each day.”

The phrase “Renewed Hope” now carries a bitter aftertaste for many. As more voices speak up about their hardships, it is evident that while the government seeks to heal the economy, it has inadvertently caused more pain for those it was meant to help.

There is a growing call for the government to temper its policies with compassion. Nigerians want to see real, immediate relief. Whether through more accessible palliatives, wage increases, or policies that ensure the average citizen can make ends meet, the message from the masses is clear: the people cannot continue to bear the full weight of economic reforms.

One young man, Olumide, a motorcycle rider in Abuja, pleads, “If the government really wants to help us, they need to listen. We are suffering out here, and it feels like nobody cares.”

The APC came into power promising a renewed hope that would uplift all Nigerians, but for many, this hope feels distant and elusive. The pain of the economic healing process is palpable across the country. If the administration wishes to regain the trust and support of the people, it must urgently address the gap between policy and reality. The Nigerian masses are crying out, not just for hope, but for immediate relief. And for their sake, this hope needs to be renewed with action, not just words.

Former Governor of Edo State, Senator Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole, was born on April 4, 1952. If baby Adams had come into the world three days earlier, he would have been born on April Fools’ Day. Adams is now 72 years old, long past 40, the popular age society set as the bar for fools to sink or swim. Oshiomhole is not a fool, he was only born on April 4, the same day and month all hell broke loose in 1968 when Martin Luther King Jr. was killed. 

April 4, unto us a baby is born. Old age doesn’t always beget wisdom, though experience is its forte. 

This fact is lost on Nigeria’s President, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s National Assembly, and education policymakers, whose aversion to genius and scholarship informed the barring of under-18 students from accessing tertiary education. 

Dressed in the robes of fake leaders, Nigeria’s blind visioners in Asso Rock and beyond bark, ‘Kill them before they grow’, at young admission seekers milling around the almighty gates of the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board, with Bob Marley’s song, “I Shot the Sheriff,” playing in the background. 

Oshiomhole loves dancing. As a comrade in the trenches of the Nigeria Labour Congress, he must have danced to Fela Anikulapo’s Beasts of No Nation, in which the Abami Eda describes himself as Basketmouth. Basketmouth is the street slang for the big-mouthed. When Oshiomhole talks, baskets overflow. But a Yoruba proverb warns, òpò òrò ò ká’gbòn, aféfé ló ń gbe lo, a basket full of words is worthless. Whenever he feels strongly about an issue, the force of his oration appears compelling even if what he belches is just hot air, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Adam was the name of the first human created by God, so say the Holy Bible and the Holy Quran. Adam means ‘Son of the Red Earth’. Aliyu is one of the 99 names of Allah. It means ‘The Most High’ or The Exalted One’. As ‘the Son of the Red Earth’, Oshiomhole’s thoughts and actions are expected to be deep-rooted in the soil of wisdom. As ‘The Exalted One’, his words are expected to typify dignity. 

But Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole, while on a campaign trail in Edo State a few days ago, defiled his two names. Without regard to wisdom or civility, Oshiomhole threw decency to the dogs as he pronounced his former begotten son and incumbent Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki, and his wife, Betsy, childless. A Muslim reportedly converted to Christianity by his late wife, Clara, Oshiomhole’s characteristic aggression is typical of converts.

When caught midair in the breaking light of dawn, witches become confused and they drop to the ground. They also confess. Oshiomhole said, “I was shock (sic) yesterday to see Mrs Obaseki, the First Lady, saying that our candidate has no wife; I’m sorry that she has to say that because here’s a woman who has no child. Between him (sic) and Obaseki, they have no child, they’re childless. They are even not ready to adopt. I mean, I don’t blame anybody shouldn’t (sic) have a child but people who have love for children, they go to motherless home(s) and adopt children, they have not adopted, they are both in their 60s. 

“So, you married, I don’t know whether it’s a contract one, but whatever it is, but they have no child. Now, our candidate not only have (sic) children, he has invested in the education of those children, such that you watch them on live television, covered by your media stations where the first that spoke is a lawyer, the second one is a medical doctor, and they addressed the crowd in Edo-South, in Edo-Central, in Edo-North, and their mother was there.” 

I can’t tell why witches are repetitive but I suspect the electoral whipping Obaseki gave Oshiomhole in the 2020 governorship election in Edo has created a hatred in Oshiomhole’s heart large enough to accommodate 10 wounded lions as he described Obaseki and his wife as childless four times in a one-minute video clip. Osho Baba, na wetin?

The tirade quoted above was what Betsy Obaseki got for declaring at a rally that only the Peoples Democratic Party candidate in the Edo governorship election, Asue Ighodalo, was married. Though she didn’t specifically mention any candidate as being unmarried, the undertone of her message wasn’t lost on her audience. The Betsy innuendo was what Oshiomhole, a former national chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress, couldn’t take, and he decided to run the errand meant for media aides and party roughnecks, all for his political son, Monday Okpebholo, the APC governorship candidate. What a great national leader Oshiomhole is!

Betsy could have done the more involving breaststroke swimming style in the sewage of Edo’s political bitterness but she didn’t, she chose the stylish backstroke, maybe for its steaze or womanishness. But Oshiomhole would drag anyone, male or female, without a child, to the bottom of the sewage for child-ish baptism because he’s the god of Edo who gives children.

According to the University of California San Francisco’s Memory and Ageing Center – Weill Institute of Neurosciences – there are three major areas of the brain responsible for speech and language. They are the Bocca’s area, Wernicke’s area and the Angular gyrus. 

In a research, “Speech and Language,”  published on its website, the university says, “When someone has trouble understanding other people (receptive language) or explaining thoughts, ideas and feelings (expressive language), that is a language disorder.”

UCSF, a world-class citadel of knowledge, added, “When someone cannot produce speech sounds correctly or fluently or has voice problems, that is a speech disorder.”

In a society where pettiness is a virtue within the ruling class, Betsy’s preoccupation with marriage and Oshiomhole’s fixation with childlessness reflect the shallowness of the characters who populate Nigeria’s corridors of power.  

The lack of roadmaps by Presidents Goodluck Jonathan, Muhamadu Buhari, Bola Tinubu, and governorship, legislative and local government council candidates standing election entrenches us firmly at the bottom of global development. The silence that greets misgovernance in Nigeria concretises our national doom.

At election times, the Nigerian electorate bickers over frivolities and expects candidates who had no manifestos to wave the magic wand after snatching and robbing like mafiosos.

In our electoral childishness, childlessness was a talking point in the Edo governorship election in 2020 when Oshiomhole was accused of not fathering a child with his Cape Verde wife, Iara. Oshiomhole, who has children with his late wife, Clara, could choose not to have children anymore. In Nigerian politics, the shoe is always on the wrong foot. The PDP threw the first stone in 2020, and now the APC is casting a rock. 

It’s ironic that Oshiomhole who is kicking against Betsy’s remarks today, had in 2016, accused then-Senator Dino Melaye of not capable of ‘maintaining a decent matrimonial home’ after Melaye said on the floor of the Senate that there was the need to enact a law that would stop Nigerians marrying foreigners from paying dowries in dollars – in a veiled reference to Oshiomhole.

The former Edo governor thundered in a statement, “It’s an open secret that Senator Melaye cannot maintain a decent matrimonial home hence he could descend to this pedestrian level of using the hallowed chambers to categorise women as if they were pieces of items for purchase.”

In Africa, children are viewed as inheritances from God. It’s wrong to needle anyone with children or lack of them. When I was a child, I remember I was occasionally taken to the house of my father’s childhood friend, the late Mr Jacob Asha Afainiya, because his wife, the late Mrs Olajumoke Comfort Afainiya, who was my mom’s childhood friend, had not conceived, despite the two couples marrying about the same time.

The Afainiya couple got their firstborn, Seun, when my parents had their third, Florence, now deceased. I occasionally stayed with the Afainiya family, who lived a stone’s throw from us in Mushin, in the belief that my ‘head’ would call from heaven children for the Afainiya couple – ori omo lo ma n pe omo waye. That’s the African belief. It also shows the importance which Africans attach to children. And I enjoyed going to the Afainiyas because mummy Afainiya made okra soup like no other mother.

One day, in the presence of both couples, I told my mom to cook her okra like mummy Afainiya’s, and everyone present laughed. When I got home, I cried for my basket-mouthedness as my mom descended on me. 

Nigeria, it’s high time we based our campaigns on developmental issues and stop running our mouths like torn baskets, please.

[EagleOnline]

Many Nigerians invested hopes in the Dangote Refinery and thought it would bring stability to Nigeria’s chaotic petroleum industry. But on the cusp of its coming on stream, it began to be dogged by regulatory and other kinds of puzzling troubles from the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration. 

Why is a refinery that is supposed to be a shining light of domestic investment stymied by needless state-sanctioned controversies?

We sought answers to our question on August 31 during an impassioned and insightful two-hour discussion in the third edition of the Diaspora Dialogues, a monthly discussion show organized by Dr. Osmund Agbo, Professor Moses Ochonu, and I, which attracted scores of attendees.

My colleagues and I are by no means experts in the oil industry. That was why Professor Ochonu, who anchored the discussion, first did extensive documentary research to establish the background to the issue and later invited contributions from the audience. Although more than 10,000 people watched the discussion from my Facebook livestream, our Zoom could only contain 100 people at a time.

In response to multiple requests from people who missed the show, I offer a summary of the conversation in this week’s column in light of the continuing centrality of the issues we discussed, especially as Nigeria grapples with yet any steep petrol price hike amid availability struggles in spite of the coming on stream of the Dangote Refinery.

The Dangote Refinery began test production this week and was, according to Aliko Dangote, ready to roll out its petrol right way, but it still faced the challenge of securing enough crude locally to feed its 650,000-barrels-per-day-capacity refinery.

Prof. Ochonu, in his background to the issues, pointed out that one or more possibilities could explain why the Dangote Refinery was stuck in prolonged gestation:  the NNPC and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) wanted to withhold crude from Dangote to sabotage the refinery, or they wanted to punish him on behalf of the present administration for allegedly supporting Tinubu’s rival during the 2023 presidential election, or they didn’t have the crude to supply to Dangote and wanted to use the ludicrous and false excuses and propaganda of “substandard products,” “no license,” and non-completion to cover the fact that they were not able to supply crude to Dangote.

It also seemed, Prof. Ochonu added, that the NNPC and International Oil Companies (IOCs), NNPC’s joint venture partners, are not able to guarantee supply of crude to Dangote for even more tragic reasons.

 He pointed to the fact that two successive APC governments have mortgaged much of Nigeria’s 1.5 million bpd production to secure so-called crude-backed loans running into billions of dollars, which have to be repaid with future crude production. It started with Buhari and continues with Tinubu.

Ochonu’s research revealed that the NNPC and the NUPRC wanted to continue exporting crude because such transactions are done in dollars and are shady dealings involving middlemen, bribes, cuts, and layers of profiteering.

 Even though the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) mandates the NUPRC to ensure the supply of crude to local refinery as a priority over export, the NUPRC claimed that they could not compel the IOCs to supply Dangote because the IOC’s had signed prior crude supply contracts with buyers overseas, some of whom financed their crude extraction operations in Nigeria. The IOCs, the NUPRC claimed, would be in violation of those contracts if they supplied Dangote with crude.

 Mr. Dan Kunle, a respected oil industry expert and former Senior Technical Adviser to a past Minister of Petroleum Resources, in his contribution, said perhaps the reluctance of the NNPC and NUPRC to supply Dangote crude stemmed from their hope that it would derail the refinery because if Dangote started production, they’d no longer have a reason to export the 450, 000 bpd set aside for local refineries, which has been exported since the local state refineries stopped functioning over a decade ago.

Tinubu’s directive to the NNPC to sell crude to Dangote in naira is a welcome development if implemented, but the key questions are: 1) Where is the crude (650,000 needed by Dangote) going to come from when export contracts and crude-backed loan obligations have already been signed by government and its oil industry entities? 2) Will the NNPC comply with the directive, which reduces its lucrative crude export business?

The show raised several pertinent questions that arise from the accusations and counter-accusations between Dangote and government entities trying to sabotage his refinery:

One, how much of Nigeria’s daily crude production has been committed to creditors who loaned the Buhari and Tinubu administrations billions?

Two, how has the 450,000 crude set aside for domestic refining been handled over the years? According to Mr. Kunle, the NNPC exports these 450,000 barrels because local refineries are currently comatose. 

In what they call crude swap deals, the crude is then refined abroad and resold to Nigeria as petrol. But as Kunle asked during the show, apart from the petrol derived from it, what’s been happening to the other derivatives from the refining process—diesel, kerosene, etc.? The NNPC has never given Nigerians an account of these derivatives. If they’re sold, to whom are they sold and how much has been realized over these decades?

Three, how much fuel do Nigerians consume daily? The NNPC and its subsidiaries bandy around outlandish figures that are disputed by industry experts. Kunle said during the show that one of the potential benefits of Dangote’s refinery is that it will reveal the true, accurate numbers regarding Nigeria’s daily fuel consumption/demand, which will potentially expose one layer of fraud in the fuel importation regime, where many industry experts have long suspected that the importation cabal have been inflating Nigeria’s daily fuel needs to submit false invoices that rely on the bogus consumption claims.

Four, why would Nigeria’s oil law, the PIA, not trump and supersede whatever other contracts and laws NNPC and IOCS have entered into? The PIA clearly authorizes the NNPC to prioritize the crude needs of local refineries such as Dangote and other smaller ones, whose combined daily crude need is put at 597,700 barrels per day (bpd)?

Five, when will the allegedly refurbished Port Harcourt and Warri refineries commence operations (the NNPC has postponed the commencement of operations three times now, with the last postponement done to the end of August), and where will the crude come from and at what price (dollar or naira, subsidized or prevailing international price?)

Professor Ochonu pivoted to the possible motives and identities of people who might have a personal or business investment in killing the Dangote Refinery. He named three.

 The first, he said, are the honchos at the NNPC and oil regulating agencies. Their motive, he pointed out, is to maintain the status quo of lucrative and fraudulent fuel importation and crude export businesses.

The second, he pointed out, is the Tinubu government. The motive might be to sabotage a businessman who allegedly funded Tinubu’s opponent during last year’s presidential election. 

Another motive, Prof. Ochonu added, might be to protect the rapidly expanding midstream and downstream dominance of Tinubu family-owned OANDO in the Nigerian oil industry. Dangote would be a direct and massive competitor.

The third entities Prof. Ochonu identified were a conspiracy of international oil refineries and a crude-buying and fuel-marketing cabal. He called attention to a report by investigative journalist David Hundeyin that blew the lid on a campaign by a Western oil cabal against Dangote refinery.

The oil company offered to pay Hundeyin and perhaps local journalists to write stories against Dangote using a prepared script of environmentalism and environmental protection, which is a clear ruse to hide their true motive of wanting to maintain the status quo of their purchase of Nigerian crude, refining it poorly below European standards, and re-exporting it to Nigeria at massive profits.

 A US-based Nigerian engineer and industry expert by the name of Dr. Muhammad Kabir Hassan, corroborated Hundeyin’s claims during the show. 

The final issue tackled in the show had to do with the scandal of NNPC retail (NNPCL) purportedly purchasing a company named OVH (OANDO, Velar, Helios)

The OVH scandal is related to what is happening to Dangote because, after allegedly purchasing OVH (for how much, no one knows and commenters on the show said NNPC owes Nigerians an explanation and the transaction numbers), the NNPC then turned around and inexplicably asked a judge to dissolve its retail arm (NNPCL-Retail) and then, in a move that should be a first in history, turned over all of its retail operations (fuel stations and depots all over the country) to OVH to run. 

This means that OVH staff and managers have replaced NNPCL staff at all NNPC fuel stations, which have now been rebranded as OVH. OVH, of course, emerged only a few years ago as a result of a merger involving OANDO, Velar, and Helios (hence the acronym). All three were small players in the retail (downstream) sector of the Nigerian oil industry, but with tentacles in fuel importation.

Dr. Hassan enjoined Nigerian journalists to investigate the true ownership of OVH at the Corporate Affairs Commission, the amount NNPC paid for OVH, the terms of the sale, and what, if any, benefits are accruing to OANDO, Tinubu’s family business, from NNPC’s purchase of OVH and its surrender of its sprawling retail business to the acquired entity.

The show is curated on my Facebook page for people who want to watch it.

But wait: Do Nigerians really know the demands they ought to make of their governors, local governments chairmen, state Houses of Assembly, etc.? As thraldom and misery have taken up permanent residence in our subnational governments, do we all really care what people who are supposed to be dealing with leadership at subnational levels are doing with our money and with themselves? I think not. And that is because everyone has been living with barely-performing subnational governments.

Scenario number one: A local government chairman receives the sum of 150 million Naira in one month on behalf of his local government and nothing happens. Yes, nothing happens; and no one can see or tell what he did with it. The month before, the same local government chairman received the sum of 180 million and no one asked him what happened to is, or what he did with it. Since he became local government chairman, less than two years ago, his fleet of cars has increased. So has the size, and cost, of his residence. He even now has a hotel, as well as a big house, in the state capital.

Scenario number two: There are Ward and Council Chairmen in the local government. All of them carry on either as if they owe no one any responsibilities, or as if the schedules assigned to them by law do not even exist. Yet they are all on the organogram designed by the framers of our constitution for effective leadership and good governance. No questions are asked by the people. And that includes mostly traditional rulers, religious leaders, town unions, district and village heads in the local government; who ought to be custodiams of propriety.

Scenario number three: The entire supply of truckloads of bags of rice, (read palliatives) sent to a particular state of the federation from the centre was sold off, stock, lock and barrel by the governor, along with very people who are supposed to help him act as custodians of service delivery and defenders of the people’s well being. In short, the goods did not get to the people in whose name it was sent to the state because of the “subversive patriotism” or elected leaders.

And then this noisy talk, allegedly true, that the thousands of tons of fertilizer meant for farmers in some parts of northern Nigeria got sold off to our Cameroonian neighbours? Just saying.

Scenario number four: A state governor pulls out billions of Naira every month as security vote. Every month security worsens in the very state wherein these billions are being routinely pulled out from. No one asks questions about the increasing size of governors’ security votes and the increasing levels of insecurity in the states.

Truth be told, the problems of Federal republic of Nigeria today are not all about the Federal Government. Subnational governments are all lying flat on its stomach, bereft of all dignity and unwilling to take responsibility in many respects. Unable to present a cohesive leadership front, state and local governments, Counsellors and Ward Chairmen are part of the furniture in their respective neighbourhoods. It has been thus for a long time now, and it is as if we are all enveloped in an incubus of snarling befuddlement that rules out any inclination to question what is wrong.

That is why we are dragging towards a benighted terminus, because Nigeria’s subnational governments are mostly now a metaphor for how to exist without really living. We are told that the governors are in charge everywhere, and in that the local governments are emasculated and even underfunded. We are further told that the Chairmen are all twisting and turning piteously in subdued pain and near-asphyxiation. But are they really?  

We are told that the local governments are ridiculed, swindled and roundly scandalised on all fronts by an elaborate scheme of the governors to maintain a stranglehold on them, in order to drain and use their resources. That, we hear, is the reason why there is not even a shadow of accountability and responsible service delivery at that level of government. It is all said to be a grand text for nominal and fraudulent leadership and service delivery, we are told.

True, many local government chairmen have found themselves in a system that excludes them from the very powers they are supposed to exercise. But that was before the Supreme Court judgment. What their equivalents all over the world are doing as a matter of course they cannot even contemplate. There is, for most of them, a strange identity crisis and an uncertain groping for validation, despite that landmark judgment. That level of government seems to be under a strange spell, with the denuding assaults of governors that seemed determined to annihilate them, until a few months ago.

The failure of constitutional provisions, the failure of reforms, and the decades of aggravated misconduct have all combined to almost make plain nonsense of our local government system. It is a matter of fact, and record, that the nation has lived with this reality for very long before the current government That is why the land and the people now bleed from all pores. Local government administration lacks relevance in every sense of the word. It is mocked by the wretched profile of its most visible political actions and actors. It crawls about in recondite and narrow corners, scandalized by everything it ought to stand for.

Look around you calmly and you must conclude that there is really nothing happening in our local governments. It boasts the most disregarded clan of political leaders. It is the least considered in many ways, notwithstanding the Supreme Court judgment. For decades now, its misfortune has lingered; until it became the norm. A massive industry of fraud sprung up, and now still thrives, around our local government system.

Much of the insecurity in the land remains a matter that intel from local governments can help with. The Airforce has been bombing and destroying illegal refineries for years now. This year alone several hundreds have been “destroyed”. Really?

Recall that some three years ago Nyesom Wike directed all 23 Local Government Chairmen in his state to hire bulldozers and destroy the illegal refineries in their respective local government areas. Four days before the directive, he said to the LG bosses, as mentioned in an article titled, “Governors, Just Look at Wike”: “Now, every council Chairman must go and identify illegal refineries … and you’re given 48 hours to go and identify all illegal refineries sites, and those who are in charge of them. … Our people are dying and we owe our people the responsibility to protect them, to save them from death”.

A few weeks before this directive, Wike went about commissioning several completed, and well-executed, projects. Concerning where the huge sums of money came from, the then governor announced that it was from massive tranches of cash he received in arrears from the Federal Government. Not quite done, he went ahead to tell Nigerians that all other oil-producing states in Nigeria received their shares of the same arrears. Then, he challenged the governors concerned. He asked them to explain what they did with their own share of the windfall. “Then, his colleague oil-producing governors started speaking in tongues”.

But that is not the point here. Wike is also not the point. It is all about tying the fortunes of the people to the tenure and continuity of subnational governments and their confirmed relevance in their respective domains. Wike’s handling of local government officials at the time pointed to what is possible; even if it was coming from an unlikely source. It was a pointer to what demands could and should be made on some subnational governments as elected leaders who should be part of the nation’s cohesive national leadership, service delivery and security architecture.

As was said back then, “That Wike called on the 23 Local Government Chairmen in Rivers State out was his way of putting responsibility for some aspects of environmental awareness and security squarely at the door step of those who are supposed to be closest to the people: and who should therefore know what is going on at any point in time”.

Will all our LG bosses, where they exist in real terms, not be forced to take their jobs seriously, if their governors are breathing down their necks? Will these chairmen not, in turn, descend on their largely idle Ward and Council Chairmen? Will this then not eventually bury the thriving expectation that we should all continue pretending that it is the business of the Federal Government in Abuja to address all local issues that a passing knowledge of one’s living environment should enable us to deal with?

As said then, regarding Wike’s Riot Act to LG Chairmen: “The beauty of Wike’s intervention … lies in the fact that he is calling out politicians who are in office as servants of the people to do their work. He is also, metaphorically speaking, asking his fellow governors and their LG Chairmen to do their jobs. They are being told that they have a duty to identify criminality and propose ways of dealing with same, in their largely closely-knit communities where everyone knows what everyone else is doing. He is saying that it is not right that people should carry official titles/cars and have their names on the government payroll, without actually being on the job”.

With the intervention of the Supreme Court, the days of our governors being sole administrators are over, and the reason is simple: “Being a governor, or a local Government Chairmen, has job description and role expectations in other climes. Enough of everyone pretending that we don’t know what’s going on and who is doing what”. The six months moratorium will soon be up. We suspect that this is a “political’ ploy, to enable the governors plug in their stooges and continue the old merry-g-round. But for how long?

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But wait: Do Nigerians really know the demands they ought to make of their governors, local governments chairmen, state Houses of Assembly, etc.? As thraldom and misery have taken up permanent residence in our subnational governments, do we all really care what people who are supposed to be dealing with leadership at subnational levels are doing with our money and with themselves? I think not. And that is because everyone has been living with barely-performing subnational governments.

The Patriots led by Chief Emeka Anyaoku recently visited President Tinubu. The group declaring that “what we have now does not make for effective internal security measures,   does not make for rapid economic development and does not make for satisfactory social development, say, in education and health” made two demands on the president. First is “The convening of a National Constituent Assembly of directly elected individuals, on a non-political basis, from the 36 states of the federation, possibly three individuals per state, and one from the FCT with the mandate to produce a draft people’s democratic constitution”.  And “The draft constitution produced by the Constituent Assembly, to be put to a national referendum and if approved, should then be signed by the president as the genuine Nigerian people’s constitution.” 

The president while assuring them of “listening to their two major requests on the path to referendum which should lead to constitutional measures that will fit our diversity and governance so that we avoid conflicts and break-ups”, however added that he is “currently preoccupied with economic reform, his first priority after which he would look at other options, including constitutional review as recommended along other options, as soon as possible”. Having emerged from the trenches, President Tinubu understands the yearnings of Nigerians and the imperative of identifying with those aspirations.

Before the current intervention by the Patriots, there had been calls for constitutional reform by other concerned groups including the late Enahoro’s ‘Movement for National Reformation’ (MNR), Pro-national Conference Organisation (PRONACO),  National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), foremost socio-cultural  ethnic groups such as Afenifere, Ohanaze, Pan-Niger Deltal Forum (PANDEF) and Middle Belt Forum, (MDF) for whom periodic agitation for restructuring of the country is a crusade. Other leading lights and stakeholders in the Nigerian project across the country have also actively supported the crusade for a return to the federal arrangement, the basis for the coming together of the country’s different multi-ethnic nationalities at independence.

Most of the above groups also believe resolving our crisis of nation building should be a crusade that must necessarily precede the quest for economic prosperity. In fact, many believe the failure to first resolve our political problem is responsible for all other socio-economic problems including massive corruption, crisis of legitimacy, participation and penetration, sabotage of the economy by groups fighting for distributive justice in the Niger Delta as well as those unpatriotic groups undermining the economy of the country through importation of the labour of other societies.

As proof of failure of successive leaders to address our political problems, they also pointed out the zero-sum struggle for power by leaders of ethnic nationalities, election rigging and electoral violence as well as massive corruption. All these they added found expression in the collapse of government economic initiatives including Obasanjo’s ‘Operation Feed the Nation’ the various ‘River Basin Authorities’ projects, Shehu  Shagari’s “ Green revolution” (Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua’s 7-Point Agenda where he identified seven sectors of the economy as the engine room to the transformation of the entire economy, and Goodluck Jonathan  “Transformation Agenda” including  unbundling of PHCN and its sales to incompetent political stalwarts.

President Tinubu who said no one should sympathize with him because he asked for the job is no doubt aware of the effects of putting the cart before the horse or attempting to sweep the political crisis under the carpet. This is why he today has a Hobbesian choice to make.

But he is a risk taker who attained power thorough grit and wit. He challenged his APC party’s oligarchs including President Buhari, VP Osinbajo, Abdullahi Adamu, his former party chairman who tried to outwit him by imposing a consensus candidate on the eve of the primary and his ever disloyal Southwest governors, with bravery and tenacity. And that turned out  a rehearsal for his final battle which he fought with great perseverance and unyielding determination against warring PDP and its surrogate, the Labour Party, crowded by crude, rude, unthinking mob called ‘obidients’ whose only commodity is intimidation of rivals.

And also working in his favour was the fact that as the only 2023 presidential candidate that emerged without the endorsement of the ‘owners of Nigeria’, the powers and principalities, he could afford taking risks.

In his Yoruba base, where electorate are often described as discriminatory voters, he lost two of the six states, Osun and Lagos where he had reigned supreme for over 20 years. He lost all the southeast states, won two in South-south and shared the northern states with Atiku Abubakar.

If with his frightful experience while navigating the mine-invested route to the Nigerian presidency, threat to a possible second term bid because of punishing effects of his harsh economic policies on Nigerians who believe they are being punished for the sins of untouchable parasitic elites that stole the country blind, he stubbornly insists on first solving economic problem before addressing the political problems he admits threaten our very survival, we can see in President Tinubu a politician who promises hope while praying for a miracle. And that is what separates the real politician from a venal man of many words.

And this is why  President Tinubu alone knows how he intends to win the war on an economy under daily  assault of crude oil thieves, importers of fake products and where manufacturing firms like Nestle and PZ are declaring loses of between N262.5b and  N76 billion while some parasitic banks are targeting  N1 trilion pre-tax profit for a year.

I guess Tinubu is not afraid of failure because unlike his errant predecessors, he sees himself as providing selfless service to a country that has been serially  betrayed by self-serving overbearing leaders interested only in exploiting, for political gains, the innermost fears of the poor electorate that look up to them for leadership.

For instance, the health of Nigeria could never have been the concern of Aguiyi Ironsi who whimsically promulgated his Decree 34 of 1966 that turned the country from a federal state to a unitary state or the succeeding military adventurers that splintered the country to 36 states and 774 local government areas to consolidate Ironsi’s initiative.

Babangida could not have been serving anyone but self by foisting Structural Adjustment programme (SAP) on Nigeria despite its wide rejection by Nigerians and his imposition of an interim contraption on the country after Nigerians had expressed their preference for MKO Abiola’s presidency by giving him a landslide victory in the 1993 election. A leader who sets out to truly serve Nigeria wouldn’t have waged five years’ war against Nigerians as Abacha did. And only Obasanjo’s political children who crowned him ‘the father of New Nigeria’ after presiding over the sale of Nigerian total government investment of $100 billion for a paltry $1.5 billion and sharing of Nigeria physical properties including national monuments among political cronies and civil servants are deceived  and not Nigerians.

Buhari couldn’t have been serving Nigeria by presiding over the total collapse of the nation’s economy and the pacification of the North including his Katsina State by bandits and herdsmen.

I am sure Tinubu the politician knows his survival and credibility is anchored on finding accommodation for the demands of the Patriots and the faithful implementation of his “three-year economic revival plan targeted at addressing Nigeria’s socioeconomic challenges, prevailing adversity, unemployment, insecurity, and poverty whose highlights, are food security; poverty eradication; growth, job creation; access to capital; inclusion; rule of law; and fighting corruption.”

 And if he is voted out in 2027 by the electorate for either not turning the fortune of Nigerians around or for failing to instituionalise a federal system that liberates individuals and groups from the tyranny of the state, he will return home a fulfilled man having tried his best.