I recently stumbled on a concept. It is called counter-factual history. “It is a form of historiography that attempts to answer the What if? questions that arise from counter-factual conditions,” according to Wikipedia. The dynamics of politics in Nigeria are counter-factual. There is always the what-if question in analysis and outcomes. It is easy to see many claiming to have won the election. Then, the slogan of “he will contest again” is the medium of solace in waiting for the next electoral circle. What if Tinubu doesn’t contest in 2027?

Counter-factual history is “conjecturing on what did not happen, or what might have happened, to understand what did happen.” How would the election play out? President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had a single ambition to become president and not necessarily a two-term president. He worked assiduously towards it for many years. He built bridges across the divide. He negotiated. He made pledges. He granted concessions. And he became president. Even when the odds were against him. He would want to replicate the Nelson Mandela example to make history as the only president who didn’t seek a second term in office.

I was in a conversation with a friend, and he mentioned that he saw a billboard that had President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his wife with the 2027 slogan. I told him it might not necessarily be the idea of the president, but an attempt by political merchants to lure him into the race again. The president sees and recognizes obstacles from a distance and he is not known to go into any fight he can’t come out victorious. In 2027 many variables would play out. A glimpse could be seen at the end bad governance protest. It was a message to the president about his rating in the north. In 2027, the third force would come from the north. This is why he won’t go into the race.

His strategy for the All Progressive Congress (APC) to win the presidential election is getting a young and bustling candidate from the north and not a (Hausa-Fulani). But a northerner whom the Hausa-Fulani can not reject. The vice presidential candidate would be a brilliant mind from the southeast who is well respected and known as an advocate of south-eastern interests.

We might see regular faces as standard bearers of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). There would be a third force party from the North as a protest. The implication is that the North and the East would be in a dilemma—the dilemma of choice. The south-east would likely go for the bird at hand, recognizing the incumbency advantage the APC has. It would be a case of once bitten twice shy. After Nnamdi Azikiwe and Alex Ekwueme, the south-east have not been lucky despite several attempts.

The PDP would try to balance their equation by going for a counter-strategy by picking a south-easterner as a vice presidential candidate, too. That would leave the LP in a dilemma. Picking a northerner as a vice presidential candidate would be of little impact because of the limited choices. The third-force from the North might jettison the idea given the prevailing circumstances and with the tendency that their lot would be better with the APC for religious reasons. The APC still had the advantage and won the election. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ate his cake and had it. He retires to Lagos, and life continues for him. His involvement in national politics would be greatly reduced. At least, he has joined the league of former presidents with the benefits accrued for life.

It would signal a new era of politics. The majority of the old order would retire. 60 years and above might struggle to make an impact. The agitation for youth involvement would be rife. The new president, himself a young person, would easily relate to the demands and pressure to score good political points to advance the acceptability of the administration. There is also the psychological aspect to it, and the excitement would be palpable among young people below the 60-year age bracket.

The losers would be sensational, and that would usher in a gale of retirements from active politics. The narrative would change completely, and the aces of the LP candidate would reduce tremendously because the youth constituency, a critical support base, would have switched camps. There would be no need for another shot at it. It might also bring about a retirement.

Please don’t forget that this is counter-factual history. It might be the case or not the case. But my instincts tell me it might be the case because of the many battles the president is fighting. He must have bruised many egos with his style of governance and possibly the political choices he must have made. He doesn’t seem apologetic about it. He had what he always wanted. He created history and it can not be reversed. The 2027 presidential elections will be very interesting and tenacious politics will play out. There would be a winner and losers, and lawyers would be disappointed. This is the counter-factual history of the 2027 presidential election.

Ocheja, a military historian and doctoral researcher, is an alumnus of the Nigerian Defence Academy.

In Nigeria, a country known for its diversity in culture, language, and politics, certain states and their people stand out for their unique attributes. Among them is Edo State, with its people known for resilience, dogged determination, and a refusal to settle for anything less than excellence. This can-do attitude is often captured in the popular saying, “Edo nor dey carry last,” a phrase that not only reflects their refusal to be outdone but also their tenacity in overcoming challenges. No one embodies this spirit more than Adams Oshiomhole, fondly referred to as “Oshio Baba”.

Oshiomhole’s life, career, and political journey serve as a case study in resilience and tenacity. From his early days as a union leader to becoming the governor of Edo State and later the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Oshiomhole has shown that he is not just a man of words but of actions and results. His life is the epitome of the “Edo nor dey carry last” ethos, a true son of the soil who fights for what he believes in and never backs down, no matter the odds.

Oshiomhole’s journey did not begin with the glitz and glamour of political office. He started from humble beginnings. Born in Iyamho, a small village in Edo State, Oshiomhole’s early life was not a bed of roses. He grew up understanding the struggles of the common man, and this shaped his world view. His rise from a poor background to becoming one of Nigeria’s most respected labor leaders and politicians is a testament to his unyielding spirit.

His years in the labor movement saw him engage with both military and civilian regimes, fighting relentlessly for the rights of Nigerian workers. As president of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), Oshiomhole led several successful protests and strikes against anti-labor policies, gaining national recognition for his courage and outspoken nature. His fearlessness in confronting the government on behalf of workers earned him the reputation of a champion of the people, a status he has maintained throughout his career.

In every protest, every negotiation table, and every political battle, Oshiomhole demonstrated that giving up was not an option. This doggedness is what has defined his public life and made him an icon, not only in Edo State but across the nation.

In 2008, Oshiomhole transitioned from labor activism to state governance, becoming the governor of Edo State. His entry into Edo politics marked the beginning of a new chapter for the state, as he vowed to bring about sweeping reforms that would impact every facet of life. Edo people, known for their sharp instincts and political awareness, saw in Oshiomhole a leader who would not compromise on development, accountability, and transparency.

During his two terms as governor, Oshiomhole transformed Edo State in ways that few had anticipated. His administration was focused on infrastructure development, improving education, healthcare, and creating opportunities for the youth. Under his leadership, Edo State witnessed a significant upgrade in its road network, with many rural and urban areas connected by well-constructed roads. This infrastructural revolution earned him accolades, as Edo people saw real progress and tangible development.

One of the key highlights of his tenure was his commitment to education. Oshiomhole recognized the importance of human capital development and ensured that schools across the state were upgraded, equipped, and properly managed. Teachers were retrained, and learning environments were improved to ensure that children from all backgrounds could have access to quality education.

The healthcare sector also saw notable improvements. Hospitals were rehabilitated, and healthcare services were brought closer to the people, particularly in rural areas. This was a significant departure from the previous administrations where development was centered on the capital city, Benin. Oshiomhole’s ability to think outside the box and reach all corners of the state exemplified the “Edo nor dey carry last” mentality.

Beyond his achievements as governor, Oshiomhole’s political career took another leap when he became the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2018. As chairman, he was tasked with the challenging responsibility of managing the party’s affairs in a turbulent period. Oshiomhole, known for his ability to stand firm in the face of adversity, did not shy away from the task.

Under his leadership, the APC navigated through several political storms, including the build-up to the 2019 general elections. He was instrumental in the re-election of President MuhammaduBuhari, a feat that underscored his strategic political prowess. Despite facing internal opposition and political wrangling within the party, Oshiomhole’s refusal to be silenced or side-lined exemplified the resilience he had shown throughout his career.

However, his tenure as chairman was not without its challenges. Political infighting and power struggles within the party eventually led to his removal from the position in 2020. But even in defeat, Oshiomhole remained defiant, a true representation of the Edo spirit that never backs down. His resilience in the face of adversity and his continued involvement in politics demonstrate that Oshiomhole is far from finished.

The spirit that Oshiomhole represents is not unique to him alone. It is reflective of the larger Edo identity. The people of Edo State have long been known for their achievements in various fields—education, politics, arts, and culture. From the ancient Benin Kingdom, one of Africa’s most advanced civilizations, to modern-day successes, Edo people have consistently shown that they do not settle for mediocrity.

Edo’s sons and daughters are found excelling not only in Nigeria but globally. In every sector, they demonstrate the values of hard work, persistence, and excellence. From business moguls to academics, artists to politicians, Edo people have a tradition of making their mark wherever they go. It is this tradition that has earned them the reputation of being people who never carry last.

As Oshiomhole’s political journey continues to inspire, there is a clarion call to the next generation of Edo youth. The future belongs to those who are willing to fight for it, just as Oshiomhole did. The challenges facing Nigeria today, from economic hardship to political instability, require the same spirit of resilience that Edo people have always demonstrated.

Edo youth must take up the mantle of leadership in their various capacities, ensuring that they contribute to the development of their communities, state, and nation. The saying “Edo nor dey carry last” should not just be a slogan, but a way of life, a constant reminder that no matter the obstacles, success is always within reach for those who strive for it.

In a country where political leaders often fade into obscurity after their tenure, Oshiomhole stands out as a man who continues to fight for what he believes in. His legacy, both as a labor leader and a politician, is one of resilience, perseverance, and a refusal to give up in the face of adversity.

Oshiomhole’s life story is a reflection of the Edo spirit, bold, fearless, and relentless. He has shown time and time again that “Edo nor dey carry last”, and as Edo people continue to break barriers and set new standards, Oshiomhole will remain an enduring symbol of that tenacity.

Oshio Baba, na true, you be Edo man. As you continue to navigate the political landscape, Edo people and Nigerians alike will always look to you as an embodiment of resilience and hope. Truly, Edo nor dey carry last, and neither do you.

In the midst of Nigeria’s deepening economic struggles, one cannot help but wonder: “Are members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) also feeling the pinch of hardship under President Bola Tinubu’s administration?” As the country faces rising inflation, soaring fuel prices, and worsening poverty, it appears that even some APC elites, who once seemed immune, are now lamenting their plight. The very architects of the policies being implemented are beginning to feel the harsh consequences of those same decisions.

In February 2024, the North-West youth wing of the APC broke its silence, expressing grave concerns over the escalating cost of living, hunger, and insecurity in the region. Their call for action was a rare public plea from a group that traditionally aligns itself with the ruling government. The youth wing’s statement, calling on President Tinubu and party leaders to intervene, marked a significant shift in tone, as even loyal party members began to question the trajectory of the country. “We can no longer stay silent while our people suffer,” they said, urging the government to prioritize economic relief measures for Nigerians.

This was not an isolated incident. In September 2024, which is invariably the ongoing month,  a highly respected Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Chief SeniIbiwoye, voiced similar concerns. Speaking at a public forum, Ibiwoye called for a rethink of the federal government’s economic policies, particularly the recent fuel price hikes. “The masses of this country are groaning and suffering,” he said, adding that the government’s decisions are hurting ordinary Nigerians. Ibiwoye’s remarks are particularly telling because, as a member of the legal elite, he likely enjoys a level of financial comfort that many Nigerians do not. For him to publicly criticize the government’s handling of the economy speaks volumes about the severity of the situation.

In Osun State, another prominent APC chieftain, Hon. OlatunbosunOyintiloye, also issued a heartfelt appeal to President Tinubu, asking him to act quickly to alleviate the suffering of the masses. “The people are feeling the heat,”Oyintiloye said, urging the government to take swift action. The fact that members of the ruling party are openly expressing concerns about the direction of the country is an indication that even those who helped bring the administration to power are not immune to the ripple effects of its policies.

Perhaps the most striking sign of the far-reaching impact of the economic crisis is the admission by Senator Orji UzorKalu, a former governor and influential APC leader, who acknowledged the financial hardship in Nigeria. In January 2024, Kalu appealed to Nigerians to give the Tinubu government more time to turn things around, but even he has since found himself forced to make lifestyle changes. In a now-viral video, Kalu revealed that he had stopped using his private jet due to the high cost of aviation fuel (Jet A1).

Buying fuel and all of the rest… I have grounded the private jet to do some other businesses for oil companies,”Kalu explained. His decision to opt for commercial flights was a stark contrast to his usual affluent lifestyle, reflecting the severity of the economic crisis. If someone of Kalu’s stature, who has the means to own a private jet, is feeling the strain, what does that say about the millions of Nigerians struggling to afford basic necessities?

In addition to Kalu, Joe Igbokwe, another prominent APC chieftain, has shared his struggles in adjusting to the new economic reality. In a candid social media post, Igbokwe admitted that he had drastically reduced his energy consumption at home, switching off 70% of his electrical appliances to save on costs. “I don carry my motor comot for road oooo. No be anywhere I de go now. For house, we don switch off 70% of the electricity to surviveoooo. Life na teacher ooooo,” he wrote, capturing the frustration of many Nigerians who have had to change their lifestyles to cope with the spiraling cost of living.

Igbokwe’s admission, like Kalu’s, underscores the reality that economic hardship does not discriminate. The fact that senior APC members, who hold positions of influence and power, are speaking openly about their struggles suggests that the economic situation is reaching a boiling point. It is not just the everyday Nigerian who is feeling the pain, but the very people who helped, vicariously through public comments, particularly Joe Igbokwe who has a frequent presence online leading to the implementation of  the policies that have led to the current situation.

The growing chorus of concerns from within the APC begs the question: “Is President Tinubu listening?” The president, who campaigned on promises of economic growth and development, now faces an increasingly restless nation. While many Nigerians outside the APC have long voiced their displeasure with the administration’s policies, the fact that prominent party members are now joining the chorus suggests that the discontent is reaching a critical level.

Even though many in the APC have maintained their loyalty to the president, it is clear that the economic situation is creating cracks within the party. The admission by Senator Kaluthat he could no longer afford to operate his private jet, and Igbokwe’s decision to limit his electricity use, reflect an uncomfortable reality that no one in Nigeria, regardless of their political affiliation, can escape the ripple effects of bad policy decisions.

As the country continues to grapple with economic challenges, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the hardship is not limited to the poor or politically unaffiliated. Even members of the APC are feeling the strain, and their public admissions are a powerful indictment of the government’s current trajectory.

If high-ranking members of the ruling party, including lawmakers, legal luminaries, and political influencers, are calling for change, then the government must listen. The hardship is not just a matter of political posturing or opposition criticism,it is a reality that cuts across all segments of society, from the struggling market woman to the affluent senator. President Tinubu must take swift and decisive action to address these concerns before the situation spirals further out of control.

In the end, the question remains: “If even APC elites are feeling the heat, how much longer can ordinary Nigerians bear the weight of this hardship?”

THERE are several observations about the current conversation about an ESF:

One, there is an erroneous belief that if you have a Standing or Standby Force, they will be quickly and efficiently deployed in conflict situations. The truth is that every conflict is unique and will throw up specific forms of politics among members of the Standby Force or Standing Force.

For instance, would an ESF in which Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have soldiers be willing to be deplored to restore constitutional order in their countries after the military coups in those countries? Would an ESF be able to intervene in a conflict in Nigeria – especially given the size of the country, its ethnic and religious polarisation and the shared ethnic and religious bonds among some ethnic groups across different member states?

Two, a crucial question in any conversation about the ESF is who should be the mandating authority for any force deployment, especially in the context of the dynamics of global power play. While under the ASF framework, it was assumed that the Peace and Security Council of the AU should be the mandating authority; in most cases, this authorisation has come from the RECs and almost always must be with the acquiescence of the UN Security Council, which frowns at any intervention without its authorisation. 

For instance, though ECOWAS was the driving force behind the restoration of constitutional order in Mali in 2012 following a military coup and the subsequent Tuareg rebellion in the Northern part of the country, its request to the UN Security Council for authorisation of an African-led International Support Mission to Mali, AFISMA, and provision of voluntary and UN-funded logistics support packages (including equipment and services for an initial period of one year), was unnecessarily delayed. Yet the same UNSC, on April 25, 2013, authorized the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) under French leadership and asked AFISMA to be subsumed into it. 

Similarly, during the Libyan crisis of 2011, the AU’s several peace initiatives, including its unequivocal rejection of external military intervention in the country and development of a roadmap for peace which was accepted by Muammar Gaddafi and most of the actors in the conflict, was ignored, and in many cases undermined, by NATO members who appeared to harbour a vendetta against Muammar Gaddafi. In essence, if the UNSC, controlled by the five veto-wielding members of the Council, must authorise any intervention, then there is a considerable risk that the ESF will become just another tool in big-power politics. 

Three, any talk of ASF or ESF underestimates the force of the external ties pulling African countries in different directions. Regarding ECOWAS, the primary contradiction is between the Anglophone and the Francophone countries. For instance, the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group, ECOMOG, which was the closest to a standby force in the sub-region, was formed in 1990 mainly by Anglophone members of the group (essentially by Nigeria and Ghana with sub-battalion strength units from Guinea, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, Liberia and others) to intervene in the civil war in Liberia because several Francophone ECOWAS members strongly opposed any troop deployment to the country. The leaders of Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire supported Charles Taylor in his attempt to depose Samuel Doe. Charles Taylor had accused Anglophone members of the ECOWAS of a gang-up against him, which led to Senegal sending 1,500 soldiers to his aid. 

Unfortunately for Taylor, after a major confrontation between his forces and the Senegalese soldiers in Vahun, Lofa, county on May 28, 1992, Senegal withdrew its forces, making it easier for ECOMOG to assert itself in the conflict. With the withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from the sub-regional body and suspicions in some quarters that Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has a close relationship with France (at a time anti-French sentiments are high in French-Speaking West African countries), it can be assumed that the contradictions between Anglophone and Francophone West Africa may have widened.

Four, why did the reputation built by ECOMOG from its interventions in the Liberian civil wars and its successful deployments to stop the RUF rebellion in Sierra Leone in 1997 and to end the Guinea Bissau Civil War in 1999, suddenly begin to atrophy? For instance, though ECOWAS planned to deploy 1,700 troops along the Guinea-Liberia border in 2001 to stop guerrilla infiltration by fighters opposed to the new post-1998 election government in Liberia, no force was ever deployed, ostensibly because of lack of funds. Similarly, in September 2003, ECOWAS launched the ECOWAS Mission in Liberia, ECOMIL, to end the Second Liberia Civil War with 3,563 troops from Nigeria, Mali, and Senegal, but this was quickly converted into United Nations Mission in Liberia, UNMIL, by the UNSC from October 1, 2003. Some attributed this to the unease by big powers about any regional intervention force they are not directly in control of and, of course, to the internal contradictions within the ECOWAS. 

Those pushing the new frenzy about ESF should carefully study the rise and fall of ECOMOG, which some have argued might have inspired the notion of ESF. Some Western commentators have unfairly attributed the early successes of ECOMOG to Western intelligence, technical, logistical, and financial support rather than to the fact that members had their booths on the grounds where they intervened.

Five, many of the current leaders of ECOWAS lack the requisite legitimacy and moral right to intervene in external conflicts because most are guilty of at least one of the three forms of coup-making in the continent – electoral coups, military coups, and tenure elongation. This undermines their moral authority to use force to restore constitutional order in any country, as happened when it tried to restore constitutional order following military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

Six, there is also the question of who will pay for the ESF. Projecting power on the global scene is an expensive enterprise. And with Nigeria, the main financier of ECOWAS initiatives, in deep financial trouble, it is doubtful if the country still has the power of the purse to play the big brother role in the sub-region.  

Seven, there are also operational issues of who will lead the ESF. For instance, the first Commander of ECOMOG was a Ghanaian, Lieutenant General Arnold Quainoo, but he was succeeded by an unbroken line of Nigerian officers on the argument that Nigeria was the primary funder and driver of the initiative. But that also bred resentment and eventually weakened ECOMOG as a force.

Eight, what should be the way forward? The current configuration of global power and Nigeria’s declining influence do not favour the sort of standby force envisaged by the ECOWAS. Nigeria needs to get its act together, and if it is seen as succeeding, it will become easier for others in the sub-region to line up behind its leadership. For now, the emphasis should be on the sub-regional body using whatever moral authority it has to persuade parties in any conflict. One of its bargaining tools could be reminding warring parties that escalating their conflicts could inevitably result in extra-African interventions and that such has hardly done any country any good. Essentially, the ECOWAS has to expand the carrots in its diplomatic toolkits and show better sensitivity to both the internal and the external constraints to its room to manoeuvre.

Concluded

The secretary-general of the United Nations, heads of states, esteemed representatives, ladies and gentlemen. Before I share the address from my principal, His Excellency Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, I wish to offer a few reflections of my own.

I am not sure when I will next have the honour of addressing you in this capacity. It may be next year or in another two or six years. But I am confident that I will return. Until then, I heed what our African elders said: “When a man climbs an Iroko tree, he should harvest firewood while on top.”

I stand before you today as a representative of a new generation of African leaders. We are not the subdued leaders the world has dealt with since independence. We are proud men and women who did not give a hoot what happened during colonization. We did not live through what the West did to Patrice Lumumba in Congo. We only read it in our history books and internalized the lessons. We grew up hearing of Ronald Reagan’s bombs landing near Muammar Gaddafi’s bedroom. We marvelled at Reagan’s arrogance and internalized the lessons. You won’t catch us quoting Nelson Mandela. If you listen to us, you hear us espousing Winnie Mandela’s words and wisdom and the resilience of our forebears.

We are patient. Our patience masks our urgency. That is who we are. Gedi kanadiben tsannawa. Heaven resides at the bottom of patience.

I am Kanuri, a descendant of a proud and storied tradition. I am, by nature, a warrior. I am not from one of the ethnic groups out of Nigeria mesmerized by the long nose of the British. I know where we were before the British invaded and halted our development. We have not forgotten. Despite your years of miseducation, of adulteration of our history, we know deep inside us that the hippopotamus surpasses an elephant by one calabash of flesh and that an elephant surpasses a hippopotamus by one calabash of bones.

At the right time, we will restart our journey and, in a short while, wipe out a century of disruptions. Those of you worried about a bold and ambitious China better prepare for an informed and vengeful Africa that will emerge when this crop of old and tired leaders you see in this chamber today die off and leave the stage for us.

We are not going to toe the lines of our fathers and grandfathers. The era of sucking up to you all and licking your behind is all but over. When we take complete control, you will know new kids are on the block.

So, my advice is this: if I were you, I would abandon all the relics of the past. A new generation of Africans who know their worth, what is in the soil under their feet, the beauty of the culture bequeathed to them, and the power of the spirituality of their forefather have come of age.

We are not the apologetic type. We do not concoct excuses for our failures. We do not revere white or brown skins. We know where we come from and where we are going. We do not accept that any mission is impossible, and we do not entertain the idea that any goal is improbable. No force can stop us.

For those of you who may not know, the members of the Boko Haram insurgency group that you must have heard of in Nigeria are my people. The boys might have channelled their energy in the wrong direction, but with a minor adjustment, they will turn it around and astonish the world. We did it before. We will do it again. When we set out on a mission, we are undeterred by any force in the world. That is who we are.

It is not too early for you to start asking yourself, what will we change to live in peace and harmony with this emerging Africa? The platitudes about shared prosperity and equal partnership will not cut it anymore. Our immense talent, creativity, unquenchable resolve, and ambition will no longer let us swallow our phlegm. There is a small window for you all to make amends and make space for possible redemption. The choice is yours.

If you want peace, we will give you peace. If you want war, we will give you war. We won’t be bullied. Decades of exploitation of African resources at our expense must stop. Our famished populace deserves respect and dignity, and we will restore them. You won’t see us bring out a bagger’s hat anymore. In our hands, you will see streams of codes, quantum threads, nano-rings, and sweats of molecular clouds. Our soils have lithium, uranium, diatomite, diamond, gold, and kaolin. Our brains have the necessary neurons it needs to produce drones, nuclear weapons, and spacecraft. Nothing in your modular oblongata makes you superior in any shape or form. We are going to achieve those in my lifetime.

So buckle up. By now, we know you very well. You have been as cunning as a weasel. Your imaginary tropes aimed at humiliating us have lost their potency. You may not have noticed it, but nobody has a monopoly on evil. Begin to treat us with dignity and respect, or else we may not have any iota of interest in being merciful for decades of exploitation and dehumanization when we get to the top. That danger should keep you up at night. We will forget when fowls cut their teeth.

The cowrie shells we threw on the ground have assured us of the divine response. The daybreak will catch you all hyenas while you are on your way. Consider yourself warned. The world is my witness.

I now invite Nigeria’s permanent representative to the United Nations to come up here and read President Bola Tinubu’s speech to the United Nations.

Rudolf Ogoo Okonkwo teaches Post-Colonial African History, Afrodiasporan Literature, and African Folktales at the School of Visual Arts in New York City. He is also the host of Dr. Damages Show. His books include “This American Life Sef” and “Children of a Retired God,” among others. His upcoming book is called “Why I’m Disappointed in Jesus.”

In 2021, Mrs. Maria Igbinedion, the 85-year-old mother of former Edo State governor Chief Lucky Igbinedion, was tragically murdered by her domestic worker, Dominion Okoro. The sorrow is deepened by the fact that her murder was driven by the desire to steal her jewelry and other cherished items, gifts from her children.

This shocking event sent ripples through Nigerian society, exposing the risks that domestic workers can pose to families. It emphasizes the need for thorough vetting and continuous monitoring of domestic staff, as well as addressing any issues in the employer-employee dynamic.

Before the tragic death of Mrs. Igbinedion, which left her family—her children Bright, Michael, and others—grieving the premature loss of their mother at the hands of a worker driven by greed and malice, similar cases of domestic workers murdering their employers had occurred in Nigeria.

In 2015, Nigerian businessman Oyibo Amachree was brutally murdered by his driver and domestic worker. In 2016, 78-year-old Chief Mrs. Olusola Olubunmi was killed by her domestic worker, and in 2018, Lagos businessman Mr. Tunde Sunmonu met the same fate.

One of the most horrifying recent cases was the murder of Dr. Aribemchukwu Ajumogobia, the daughter of Justice Rita Ofili-Ajumogobia. On July 31, 2024, Dr. Ajumogobia was found dead outside their Parkview, Lagos residence. Following an investigation, a 21-year-old housemaid, Abigail Peter, a 35-year-old driver, Olatunji Oluwasegun, and a 45-year-old security guard, Umaru Mamman, admitted to killing her. They revealed that they had gagged and stabbed her in the neck, intending to steal cash and valuables.

It is heartbreaking that the stolen items were likely of little value, yet a promising young doctor in her early thirties lost her life due to the greed of domestic workers who conspired to carry out such a heinous act.

The disturbing rise in violent crimes committed by domestic staff against their employers is not unique to Nigeria. In fact, a quick online search shows that such crimes are prevalent across the African continent and even on a global scale.

Here are a few examples of such murders in Africa: In 2019, a 79-year-old woman in South Africa was killed by her domestic worker. In 2018, a couple in Kenya was murdered by their domestic worker, and in Uganda in 2017, a 60-year-old woman faced a similar fate at the hands of her domestic worker.

Globally, this trend can be seen in other countries as well. In 2019, a 61-year-old woman in France was murdered by her domestic worker. In India, a 70-year-old woman was killed by her domestic worker in 2018. In the United States, a 65-year-old woman was murdered by her caregiver in 2019.

The question remains: what drives domestic workers to murder their employers? Several factors have been identified, including greed fueled by financial struggles, stress from work, mental health issues, personal grudges, and social and economic inequality. Other contributing factors include poor working conditions, mistreatment by employers, low wages, exploitation, and the absence of proper background checks for domestic workers.

Given these statistics and factors, the troubling trend of domestic workers killing or poisoning their employers, who are essentially their benefactors, is becoming a global problem. In Nigeria, it is quickly becoming a national crisis, nearing epidemic proportions. Recently, news broke about Ronke, the wife of David Edevbie, a former Delta State finance commissioner and 2023 gubernatorial candidate, narrowly escaping a deadly plot by her domestic staff, who had laced her breakfast with a sleep-inducing drug.

Thankfully, she locked herself in her section of their Parkview Estate, Ikoyi home before succumbing to the drug's effects. Had she not done so, she might have been another victim of domestic worker violence, which has been growing alarmingly. The timing of her escape is particularly chilling, as it occurred just one month after the tragic murder of Justice Ajumogobia’s daughter, also in Parkview Estate, Ikoyi, Lagos.

There are numerous similar incidents across the country that have garnered media attention, along with many others that have not. For example, in southwestern Nigeria, a maid bought rat poison with the intent to put it in a pot of soup, which could have been consumed by an entire family. The family might have all been killed if she hadn’t been caught before carrying out her deadly plan.

Considering the severity of these situations, it's clear that this disturbing trend has sparked serious concerns about household safety in Nigeria. This problem must be addressed urgently before it escalates into a full-blown crisis.

However, amid these grim stories of domestic workers turning against their employers, there are solutions to this growing threat. Some of the key remedies involve better communication, diligent background checks, and proper training. As Miyamoto Musashi wisely said:
"The purpose of today's training is to defeat yesterday's understanding."
To reduce and possibly prevent future occurrences of such crimes, experts recommend several steps for employers. These include conducting thorough background checks on domestic workers, fostering open and effective communication, and ensuring fair treatment of staff—especially since some domestic workers have faced abuse from their employers.

Additionally, employers must ensure that domestic workers receive fair compensation and are provided with humane working conditions. Training in conflict resolution should also be introduced, along with stronger security measures, such as restricting access to certain areas of the home. Such steps may have helped protect Mrs. Ronke Edevbie, as shown by her recent experience.

These measures could serve as vital models to address this crisis in Nigeria. As the saying goes, "nothing is new under the sun." From available records of similar crimes in other countries, it’s evident that the strategies mentioned earlier have been effective in places where domestic worker violence has been curbed. This has led to a noticeable reduction in such crimes.

For example, countries like the US, UK, and Singapore have stringent background check and verification processes before hiring domestic workers. In Nigeria, the absence of such measures is glaring, and the need for their introduction is urgent. This is further highlighted by the fact that the employee responsible for Dr. Ajumogobia’s murder was reportedly newly hired without a proper vetting process.

Currently, domestic worker providers in Nigeria operate informally and without regulation. There is a pressing need for regulated employment agencies to screen and train domestic workers before placing them in homes. In many advanced countries, regulated agencies ensure domestic workers are properly vetted, trained, and placed in appropriate households. The rise in these crimes in Nigeria may be due, in part, to the absence of such a system here, making it crucial to establish one without delay.

There was a time when child trafficking posed a major threat in Nigeria, leading to the creation of the National Agency for the Prohibition of Trafficking in Persons (NAPTIP) to address and combat the issue. Similarly, it is now crucial for both the Executive and Legislative branches of government to take urgent action and create legislation to deal with the current crisis. In this context, countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and South Africa have introduced labor laws that protect domestic workers, including provisions for minimum wages, paid leave, and protection from abuse.

Recently, Nigeria approved a new minimum wage of N70,000, and Senate President Godswill Akpabio confirmed that it applies to domestic workers. However, clarification is needed from the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and relevant government bodies about the standing of domestic workers, as the current minimum wage legislation only applies to employers with more than 15 employees.

Given this, the proposed agency would focus on the training and support of domestic workers. Some countries already offer training for both employers and workers to foster healthy relationships, improve conflict resolution, and promote cultural understanding. In certain places, domestic workers also undergo psychological evaluations to identify any potential mental health concerns before being placed in homes.

Government support is not the only solution. Based on research, community-based initiatives and support groups can also help address the socio-economic challenges that domestic workers face, acting as a safety net. Religious institutions, like churches and mosques, have a vital role to play in this process. Additionally, law enforcement and the prosecution of domestic worker-related crimes must be strengthened to deter future violence against employers.

Several international examples demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches. For instance, the Philippines, which sends the highest number of domestic workers abroad and is one of the top three nations for foreign exchange remittances, has established the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (OWWA). This agency has significantly improved the management of domestic workers. Likewise, Singapore has a maid levy and mandatory training to regulate the sector, and in the United States, the National Domestic Workers Alliance (NDWA) ensures proper oversight and protection for domestic workers.

Domestic workers—whether they are security guards, housemaids, or drivers—play a critical role in society, especially when they work closely with our loved ones. It is essential that their activities are carefully monitored, just as other countries have done. This is the central argument of this discussion, and I hope it emphasizes the need for the Nigerian government to take responsibility and put in place safeguards to address this growing issue. While these concerns may seem minor, they can have significant and potentially devastating effects on society.

Some readers might question why I have chosen to focus on such a sensitive topic—one that evokes sadness and grief, and which some may prefer to forget. In essence, why revisit painful memories?
My response is that l share the pains of the families of the victims of domestic workers violence because it is something that is relatable.
In 2017, l suffered the tragedy of lossing my 18 years old adorable daughter , Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe who was on track to graduate as a lawyer from the university of Birmingham in England. Her sudden passage which was a result of a badly performed surgery for appendix in Gold Cross hospital, now Lagoon hospital on Bourdilon road, ikoyi,Lagos , had a profound effect on me and my family.
Since l did not want a similar tragedy to happen to other families owing to ignorance and not having anyone to advocate for potential victims as patients in hospitals, where some shady activities can happen in the theatre ,l shared my family’s sad experience in a book titled: “Beyond Loss And Grief. The Story of Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe,a Survivor’s Manual for Coping With the Loss of a Child”.
It is a personal memoir which l believe helped to shine the light on the painful experience of grief. ln a chapter titled “United ln Grief” l listed prominent and ordinary Nigerians including the sitting president, serving and ex-governors and musicians as well as sports enthusiats who lost their young children under tragic circumstances as aimed to share in their grief.
It is my hope that l would achieve a similar goal with this media intervention aimed at gingering the authorities into taking actions to end the rising tide of domestic workers killing their employeres before another such avoidable tragedy befalls another family.

Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

Many Nigerians have never heard of the expression ‘’federal might’’ as an important factor in gubernatorial elections until Gov. Godwin Obaseki started talking about it in the weeks leading to the September 21 election in his state. He told the press that Senator Adams Oshiomhole and other APC stalwarts in the state were planning to rig the election and impose their candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, on the state with the use of ‘’Federal Might’’. Okpebholo won the election, polling 291,667 votes to beat Obaseki’s candidate, Asue Ighodalo of PDP, who got 247,274 votes and Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata, who got a paltry 22,763 votes. But did Federal Might play a role in APC’s victory? Perhaps. I have participated in three governorship elections in Akwa Ibom State as a communications strategist and I have seen first hand how politicians crave the use of Federal Might to secure victory. This article is therefore based on by my personal experiences.

Federal Might is the deployment of federal resources, especially the security forces, to intimidate and harass opponents in order to create ample environment for the favoured party to rig election, often with the collusion of INEC. To procure Federal Might, an influential political figure in Abuja must give orders to the IGP and/or the Army chief to deploy excessive number of policemen and soldiers to the affected state with specific instructions to cow the opposition politicians and arrest some, if need be. Federal Might also entails INEC colluding with one party to the disadvantage of the others. Federal Might is therefore more valuable to a politician, especially those seeking to defeat a strong incumbent, than any other support he can get.

There are a few signs of the presence of Federal Might during an election. As soon as the policemen or ‘’federal forces’’ arrive the state to be captured, the leader of the command, typically an AIG, will establish contact with the favoured governorship candidate; and his first order of business is to arrest selected members of the opposition. The arrested men are usually influential leaders who command the respect of their party members. To create maximum impact, the arrest will happen at night and they’d be whisked off to Abuja before dawn. No doubt, the incarceration creates considerable embarrassment and trauma from the governor to the rank-and-file members of the party affected party.

The detention of some PDP henchmen, including local government chairmen in Edo, by the police in Abuja was an unmistakable early signal that Federal Might was being activated prior to the election. Despite Gov. Obaseki’s cries and Asue Ighodalo’s lamentations, the police did not explain the rational for the arrest and no charges have been brought against them till today.

Another sign of Federal Might is the disposition of the Resident Electoral Commissioner. If the REC is newly posted to the state just before the election, or if he had been found to be too chummy with members of one party, and INEC refuses to redeploy him out of the state despite pleas from the other party, then Federal Might is suspected. For some time, the PDP in Edo State has asked INEC to transfer the REC, Dr. Anugbum Onuoha, out of the state because he is a cousin of the FCT Minister, Nyesome Wike. Wike is a PDP member who as Rivers State governor helped APC win the presidential election in his state and as a reward, is now serving in the APC controlled federal government. It is enough reason to expect the REC to be biased. But INEC refused to budge, with the REC arguing that that his family relationship with Wike would not becloud his sense of duty. By refusing to move the REC from Edo, INEC failed to give all parties a sense of fairness and appearance of a level playing ground. An umpire, including a football referee, must be fair and be seen to be unbiased in all materials particular.

A REC is the number one electoral official in the state and if he decides to work against you in any election in your state, you’d be swimming against the currents and the chance of a loss is greater than 90%. An unconscionable REC has an arsenal of weapons he can use against a party he dislikes. He can, for example, substitute genuine result sheets with fake ones; instigate late arrival of voting materials in some areas to suppress voting and even blatantly facilitate forgery at the collation centers. Even after the elections, a REC can frustrate aggrieved parties from accessing the voting materials in preparation for litigation. I saw that play out in 2015 and 2019 in Akwa Ibom. However, to succeed in his wicked schemes, the REC must have the cooperation of the electoral officers (EOs) who are the chief superintendents of elections at the local government areas. In the 2015 governorship election in Akwa Ibom State, we had a REC who was openly biased against one of the two major parties. It was the most flagrant case of bias by a senior electoral official ever recorded in history. The REC eventually retired from INEC into stupendous wealth. In Edo State, the PDP is currently complaining that some of the results announced at the State Collation Center in Benin are different from what was uploaded on INEC’s iREV portal. That’s a very serious allegation that borders on the integrity of INEC.

The 2019 governorship election in Akwa Ibom State was an eye-opener on how Federal Might could work or fail to work. In August 2018, Senator Godswill Akpabio had decamped to APC from the PDP, thereby giving members and supporters of his new party the assurances that he would flip the state. we can all recall the infamous ‘’Warsaw saw War’’ statement, which further fueled tensions and frightened the PDP and the state government. At a stakeholders’ meeting of PDP in the Government House, a crestfallen member reportedly asked the governor, ‘’Your excellency, we don’t have INEC; we don’t have the police; what are we going to do’’? It was a poignant question for a party that had controlled the centre for 16 years and had known the importance of Federal Might.

The governor, Mr. Udom Emmanuel, seeking reelection, appeared beleaguered, cowed and insecure, but he was very clever. While his party, PDP, was campaigning hard, going from village to village, APC members were engrossed in endless meetings, planning and waiting for the arrival of the Federal Might. Besides, APC was bereft of the cohesion and stamina required to mount an effective assault against the PDP which had governed the state since 1999. The arrival of Akpabio in a way became an Achilles heel for the APC as some members’ resentments against him was beginning to sap the party of its mojo. In the welter of all the tensions in the state, anger in APC and frustration in the PDP, the governor sneaked into Abuja and struck a deal with the people in ASO Rock, including the then chief of Staff to the President, who received a huge erosion-control contract from the state government, in exchange for a support to the governor and his party. It was a masterstroke. With that, the table turned against APC in the state. Its cry for the redeployment of the REC, Mike Igini, who had appeared as a pro-PDP person and the request for support from the police and army, were completely rebuffed by Abuja. No Federal Might was forthcoming and, of course, APC lost the election woefully. Members began to heap blame on President Buhari for not helping out with the expected ‘’Federal Might’’. There’s no name they did not call Buhari.

Now, with the victory of APC in Edo over the weekend, APC members in Akwa Ibom State were once again jubilant, hoping that there is now a better chance for the Federal Might in 2027. ‘’Buhari did not care about the party in our state; but Asiwaju understands the game’’, an APC chieftain told me, after sharing a video of Akpabio and others dancing in Benin. Really? I told him that there are other circumstances that played out in Edo that may not happen in Akwa Ibom in 2027. For one, Obaseki’s fight with the powerful Oba of Benin and his meanness to his erstwhile deputy, Philip Shuaibu, were not helpful.

In the aftermath of the just-concluded gubernatorial election, it has become clear that the defeat of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) can largely be attributed to a combination of political missteps, most notably the exit of Philip Shaibu, the deputy governor, and Governor Godwin Obaseki’s tendency to burn bridges with political allies. These events highlight a broader lesson for politicians: the need to manage crises and strained relationships with fellow leaders, as failure to do so can unravel the strongest political alliances and weaken a party’s electoral chances.

Philip Shaibu’s departure from the PDP earlier in the political cycle sent shockwaves through the party. As a key political figure in Edo State and a grassroots mobilizer, Shaibu had been instrumental in ensuring Governor Obaseki’s political success, especially during their joint defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the PDP. His exit, however, was driven by mounting differences with Obaseki and a growing sense of isolation. As deputy governor, Shaibu became disillusioned with the way Obaseki managed internal affairs, leaving him little room to operate politically. His eventual exit did not just hurt the PDP but also reflected deeper cracks within the party structure.

Shaibu’s exit robbed the PDP of his loyal following in Edo North, a critical stronghold, significantly weakening the party’s voting base. Moreover, it sent a clear message to voters and supporters: if the party’s own leadership could not remain united, how could they be trusted to lead the state effectively? Shaibu’s defection highlighted the consequences of poor crisis management and failure to maintain healthy relationships among political allies, which became a key factor in the PDP’s electoral defeat.

However, Shaibu’s departure was only one symptom of a larger issue. Governor Obaseki’s penchant for alienating key political allies has been a recurring problem throughout his tenure. Over the years, he has distanced himself from powerful figures and internal party leaders, creating a reputation for burning bridges. His fallout with political allies, both within Edo State and at the national level, had weakened his support base well before the election.

One of the most notable instances of Obaseki’s tendency to burn bridges was his public clash with the PDP leadership shortly after his re-election in 2020. The governor’s refusal to fully integrate into the party’s structure caused a rift between him and core PDP members, many of whom felt sidelined. Obaseki’s perceived lack of commitment to party unity bred resentment, creating internal divisions that festered until they reached a breaking point.

This inability to manage political relationships not only weakened the PDP but also cost the governor the confidence of party faithful and the electorate. In a political landscape where loyalty and unity are critical, Obaseki’s habit of severing ties with key allies made it difficult for the party to present a unified front, further damaging their prospects in the election.

Beyond internal party issues, Obaseki’s administration struggled to deliver tangible democratic dividends to the people of Edo State. Voters became increasingly frustrated with the lack of visible progress in critical sectors such as infrastructure, employment, and economic empowerment. Despite numerous promises, many citizens felt the administration was more focused on political wrangling than delivering real benefits to the people.

This perception of underperformance became a potent weapon for the opposition, which capitalized on the growing dissatisfaction. Obaseki’s failure to demonstrate meaningful progress on the ground further alienated voters, who began to see his administration as disconnected from their daily struggles. By the time the election arrived, the PDP was fighting an uphill battle against not just a united opposition but also widespread discontent among its traditional supporters.

The PDP’s loss in the Edo gubernatorial election serves as a cautionary tale for politicians across Nigeria. The exit of Shaibu and Obaseki’s deteriorating relationships with political allies underscore the critical importance of managing crises and maintaining alliances. In politics, relationships are often the glue that holds parties and administrations together, especially during challenging times. Leaders must be adept at conflict resolution, compromise, and managing strained partnerships, as the failure to do so can have devastating electoral consequences.

Likewise, in states where political relationships are strained, this scenario serves as a warning. Politicians must prioritize the management of internal conflicts and maintain open channels of communication with their allies. Failing to do so risk the kind of fragmentation that plagued the PDP in Edo and contributed to its eventual defeat.

The collapse of the PDP’s electoral fortunes in Edo State can be traced back to a series of avoidable political missteps, most notably, the exit of Philip Shaibu and Governor Obaseki’s inability to maintain strong alliances. In the complex world of Nigerian politics, where personal relationships and grassroots mobilization are key to electoral success, political leaders must learn to manage crises with care. Obaseki’s experience should serve as a reminder to politicians across the country, especially in states like Rivers and beyond, that political bridges should be built and maintained, not burned.

As the PDP reflects on its defeat, the lessons from this election should resonate beyond Edo State. Politicians everywhere should take heed: mismanagement of internal conflicts, coupled with a failure to deliver democratic dividends, can derail even the most promising political careers. Only through careful crisis management and alliance-building can they hope to maintain the trust of the electorate and secure lasting political success.