US President Donald Trump told reporters late Friday he wanted to assure Chinese international students in the country that they would be fine amid his administration’s crackdown on academia.

Trump’s administration this week said it would specifically target permissions for Chinese students, in its latest broadside against US higher education.

But when asked Friday what message he would send to Chinese college students in the country, Trump insisted: “They’re going to be ok. It’s going to work out fine.”

“We just want to check out the individual students we have. And that’s true with all colleges,” he told reporters.

The softer tone comes after a judge on Thursday extended a temporary block on Trump’s bid to prevent Harvard from enrolling international students.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio vowed on Wednesday to “aggressively” revoke visas to students from China. Rubio has already yanked thousands of visas, largely over students’ involvement in activism critical of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, but also over minor traffic violations and other infractions.

The Trump administration has been in an ongoing showdown with academia, and Harvard in particular, demanding it provide a list of students that the government is interested in, something the prestigious university has declined to do.

“I don’t know why Harvard’s not giving us the list. There’s something going on because Harvard is not giving us a list,” Trump said Friday.

“They ought to give us a list and get themselves out of trouble,” he insisted, suggesting that “they don’t want to give the list because they have names on there that supposedly are quite bad.”

At graduation ceremonies this week, Harvard University president Alan Garber received a one-minute standing ovation when he called for universities to stand “firm” in the war the Trump administration has waged against students and schools.

“We want people that can love our country and take care of our country and cherish our country,” Trump said Friday.

International students on average make up just under six percent of the US university population — far below Britain, the second top destination for international students, where the figure is 25 percent.

AFP

I was in my early teens when I came across the slim novel, Weep Not, Child, by the then James Ngugi. Actually, the novel laid around as it was part of the school syllabus in senior secondary school, and the seniors read it.

I found it simple, easy to digest, but most importantly, I identified with Njoroge, the main antagonist. I could not understand how a child my age could be subjected to such harrowing experiences. It introduced me to the issue of colonialism and resistance.

Other books I later read in secondary school, like Tell Freedom by Peter Abrahams and the poems of David Diop such as The Vultures and Africa concretely situated me in my African environment, and established some consciousness between a Nigerian child and other Africans. God bless all those who put those writings in the West African Examination Council, WAEC, syllabus. Painfully, these basic soul-searing books have been replaced by African leaders manipulated by foreign interests who claim that the basic needs of our children are entrepreneurial knowledge and some passing acquaintance with science, technology, engineering and mathematics, STEM, education. In fact, in Nigeria, this manipulation of minds got to the crazy extent that history was banned from our schools. Many African leaders and their foreign masters do not want Africans to learn about their past, thereby reinforcing the racist lie that Africa has no historical past. The intent, of course, is to re-colonise our minds and make us subservient to other peoples.

It was this realisation that led Ngugi to change his name to Ngugi wa Thiong’o. It was also the reason he decided to stop writing in English language and rather use an African language, Gikuyu. He explained that: “In colonial conquest, language was meant to complete what the sword had started; do to the mind what the sword had done to the body”.

As I grew in teenage-hood, Weep Not, Child had tremendous effects on me as it dovetailed into the issue of racism and Apartheid in Ian smith’s Rhodesia (Zimbabwe) and South Africa. It also made me as a 16-year-old, to understand issues in the news like the liberation struggles in Mozambique, Angola, Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde.

Weep Not, Child was fictive realism. By the time Ngugi returned from boarding school, the British colonialists had wiped out his village. Two of his brothers were killed, including one who was hard of hearing, so did not hear the command of a colonial soldier. The latter thought he was being defiant, and shot him dead. His father’s land was also seized by the colonialists who wanted to seize and settle in beautiful Kenya.

The novel was published in 1964. The following year, he published another soul-rendering novel, The River Between. It centred on the efforts of a young nationalist, Waiyaki to unite two villages: Kameno and Makuyu in the face of colonialism and a new divisive religion.

In 1967, Ngugi produced A Grain of Wheat woven around Kenya’s armed struggle for independence led by the Kenya Land and Freedom Army with the legendary Dedan Kimathi as head. In what became known as the Mau Mau Revolt from October 1952 to December, 1959, the colonialists killed at least 11, 000 liberation fighters and established Nazi-like concentration camps in which over 80,000 Kenyans were packed and tortured without trial.

Ngugi’s theme centred around the fighters, including the quiet Mugo who had betrayed their leader. This trilogy established Ngugi firmly as one of the best novelists on earth. He added short stories like Secret Lives and other stories” and plays like The Trial of Dedan Kimathi which he co-authored with Micere Githae Mugo in 1976.

But it was in 1977 that Ngugi literally exploded. First, he dropped his English name, stopped writing in English language and, wrote the bombshell of a novel, Petals of Blood. The novel explored themes of neo-colonialism, capitalist exploitation and corruption. It was a powerful novel. But when with Ngugi wa Mirii, he produced the play, I Will Marry When I want which explored themes of poverty, gender, religion, cultural values and class struggle, it was too much for the government of Jomo Kenyatta. It seized Ngugi and threw him in the Kamiti Maximum Security Prison to rot away without trial. For a period, he was confined in a cell for 21 hours a day with an electric bulb shining. A condition for him to receive medical treatment or see his family was to be chained. The books seized from his home were mostly those of Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels and Vladimir Lenin, suggesting they are ‘dangerous’ books.

Then Kenyatta died on August 22, 1978, and the new government of Daniel Arap Moi freed him in December 1978. Ngugi after his release, refused to leave the country. However, when in 1982 he discovered a plot to kill him, he fled. He returned after 22 years to a tumultuous welcome. But unfortunately, his home was attacked by four armed men who battered him and raped his wife, Njeeri.

Ngugi greatly influenced my generation of students in the university. When in 1981 at Ife, the university authority’s body language suggested curbing the fledging campus press, we prepared for a ban on popular campus journals by establishing a new one. We picked the name “Petals” from the title of Ngugi’s Petals of Blood. In the maiden edition, we waxed lyrical about different colours of petals, including, of course, Petals of Blood. It was a little veiled warning that we were ready for a fight on the campus.

Talking about my undergraduate days, we had long debates about the possibility of an African winning the Nobel Prize for Literature. We narrowed the possible candidates to three: Wole Soyinka, our own WS (William Shakespeare), Ngugi and Chinua Achebe. We thought the first two had better chances, and finally picked Soyinka. Our reason was that while Soyinka is a genius, radical, transformative and a prodigious literary producer like Ngugi, the West, which had serious influence on the Nobel Prize, could tolerate him, but not Ngugi who was a clear revolutionary. This was in the era of the Cold War. Soyinka  deservedly got the prize in 1986. But Ngugi who joined the African ancestors this Wednesday, May 28, 2025 to watch over the African people, never got it. That was a minus for the Nobel Prize.

The eternal bow of Ngugi from the world stage at 87 after 60 years of prodigious literary output, political activism and fight to make the world a better place, does not elicit tears. We await the celebration of a legend, and wherever in the world his remains are lowered, on his grave should be placed: petals of blood.

President Bola Tinubu says the transformative leadership exhibited by Dapo Abiodun, governor of Ogun, has led to significant advancements in infrastructure and socio-economic development in the state.

The president spoke during a thanksgiving service marking the governor’s 65th birthday and six years in office, held at the Cathedral Church of St. Peter, Ake, Abeokuta, the state capital.

Represented by Senate President Godswill Akpabio, Tinubu highlighted Abiodun’s achievements across various sectors, including social welfare, education, youth empowerment, agriculture, and food security.

“Your leadership over the past six years has transformed the entirety of Ogun state into a model of progress,” Akpabio stated on behalf of the president.

He said Abiodun’s transparent and inclusive governance has fostered innovation, stability, and sustainable development, positioning Ogun as a leading destination for investment with a growing internally generated revenue (IGR).

Akpabio, in his personal remarks, acknowledged the developmental strides recorded by the Ogun state governor.

“I was a bit scared when I landed today at the airport because I thought I would remain in history as the best-ever governor Nigeria has produced, but seeing what is happening here, it looks like people are trying to beat my record,” he said.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Olusegun Osoba, ex-governor of Ogun, also commended Abiodun’s developmental efforts.

Obasanjo described the governor’s birthday as a day of joy, while Osoba highlighted the tremendous infrastructural development witnessed in the state over the past six years.

[TheCable]

One of the unique and pleasant experiences of my adult life was the uncertain definition of my relationship status with the former Yoruba patriarch, Ooni of Ife, Oba Okunade Sijuade.

Between him and my friends (Tokunbo, Deremi and several nieces and nephew) I often wonder whose buddy I really was. Regardless of his preoccupation at the time of my arrival, he was given to receive and acknowledge me with a wink and salutation ‘alagbara’.

On my 50th birthday, he arrived at the church before I did. He would also wish for me to be a regular member of his entourage. It got to a point I had to inquire from older relatives if they could fathom a reason for this unusual recognition. Not surprisingly, I learnt he was my father’s friend in the socio-political circuit of the Western region. Rummaging through his archives, I actually discovered a picture of the two of them sporting champagne glasses apparently at a cocktail party.

When his successor, Ooni Enitan Ogunwusi, Olofin Adimula, Ojaja II who didn’t know my dad (the pharaoh who didn’t know Joseph) picked up the baton and actually upped the ante, treating me like an Ife prince, I resolved to probe deeper. I delved into the Yoruba cosmological order and discovered a possible case of incarnation. My great grandfather, Dada Akoja, paired with the famous Ekiti warlord Ishola Fabunmi, once came to relieve a besieged Ife in one of the numerous century long Yoruba intra tribal wars.This primordial relationship has been of tremendous value to my present preoccupation with the academic study of Yoruba prehistory.

Along the way the incumbent Ooni floated an elite peer group, christened the ‘Ooni Caucus’ comprising leading lights from across the length and breadth of Yoruba land. The Ooni proposed that “In order for me to better secure the honour, safety, integrity and well being of the Yoruba heritage especially in this challenging and perilous times, I have decided to exercise the power conferred on me as the Arole Oodua, to constitute a caucus of eminent Yoruba sons and daughters, to support and advise me in the discharge of the royal mandate”.

“The caucus will serve as a body of primary advisers and companion to me in moving forward the institutionalisation of the ancient Oodua stool. We shall hold quarterly meetings at the Palace court in Ife and as occasion demands. In view of the prevailing security issues in the country, it will be the responsibility of the palace to ensure the safety and security of members in their ingress and egress to and from Ife. It will be the obligation of members to join kabiyesi in hosting major palace social and cultural events at Ife and accompany him in attendance at similar events to which the kabiyesi is invited. Members shall individually and collectively hold the obligation to protect and project the goodwill, prestige and power of the foremost Yoruba monarchy”.

The inauguration of the caucus was scheduled for July 20th 2021 and was thus fated to play into the news of the arrest of the Yoruba self-determination fighter Sunday Igboho the previous evening. This was reinforced by the propensity of the media to speculate and draw correlations between unrelated events.

It would have been clairvoyant of the Ooni to know beforehand that Igboho would be arrested on July 19th and thereby convene a meeting (of individuals travelling from different parts of the country) on the event for the following day. This clarification was by no means a distancing from the responsibility a Pan Yoruba caucus bears for intervening in any event that is of active concern to the Yoruba people. Perhaps the coincidence was a way of providence acclaiming the formation of the caucus and cutting out for us our task.

It was a responsibility imposed on us by unforeseen circumstances from which we cannot walk away. In the furore that followed, it however became impossible to organically separate the inauguration of the caucus from the Igboho development. To boot, the extraction and circulation of the so-called full membership list of the caucus went viral on the social media and became a celebrity cause celebre attracting applause, cynicism, blackmail and the occasional venom.

Sooner than later, we got caught up in the resurgence of the Ooni/Alaafin syndrome. We figured that a Yoruba monarchy-centred-initiative should prioritise goodwill visits with the other leading monarchs hence the quick order courtesy call on the Alaafin.

A member of the caucus and deputy chairman of the Oyo state traditional council, the Olugbon of Igbon, Oba Olusola Alao, employed his good offices to secure an appointment for a courtesy call on the Alaafin. But since there is no good way of reporting the drama of the visit from the two conflicting accounts of what transpired, the sooner the whole episode was forgotten the better for us all.

This was our first and last encounter with the late Oyo monarch. One of the reasons we felt confident in going to see him was the fact that hardly had the official ink dried on his appointment letter, kabiyesi Ogunwusi took the unprecedented initiative of going all the way to Oyo, Abeokuta and Ijebu-Ode to pay courtesy calls and rally the fellow monarchs to the cause of Yoruba solidarity and unity.

The generic report of the charm offensive and shuttle diplomacy was ‘On Sunday, February 7, 2016, the Ooni of Ife, Oba Enitan Ogunwusi visited the Alake of Egbaland, Oba Adedotun Gbadebo at the latter’s Ake Palace in Abeokuta, Ogun State. It was in continuation of the Ooni’s recent “unity tour” to Yoruba monarchs during which he reiterated his message that there could not be development without unity. The recently coronated Ooni of Ife, Enitan Ogunwusi, on Friday visited the paramount ruler of Ijebuland, Sikiru Adetona, at Ijebu-Ode, ending 75 years of rivalry between the two monarchies.

Ooni Ogunwusi made a similar gesture when he visited the Alaafin of Oyo, Lamidi Adeyemi, on January 17 to end a 79-year old supremacy battle between the two thrones’.

“Before the visit to the Alake, the Ooni had paid an unscheduled visit to the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Adeyemi at his palace in Oyo, Oyo State. He joined Oba Adeyemi in the celebration of his 45th anniversary on the throne and attended the thanksgiving service held at the Methodist Church, Apaara, Oyo to commemorate the Alaafin’s coronation anniversary. Oba Ogunwusi was the first Ooni to visit Oyo town since 1937. He was accompanied to Oyo by scores of monarchs across Yorubaland. He said he was determined to ensure the unity of all Yoruba sons and daughters all over the world.

“I am here today, though not invited. As the Arole Oduduwa, the onus is on me to felicitate with all sons and daughters of Oduduwa wherever they are and to show my solidarity for them. I am ready to damn any consequences or insinuations from anywhere; my mission here is to preach peace among nations of Yoruba both home and abroad and I am ready to work with the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Adeyemi to project the unity and love which existed in the days of our forefathers,”.

The Alaafin, while expressing joy with the presence of the Ooni and other Yoruba Obas at the coronation anniversary, noted that if all the monarchs in Yorubaland unite, there would be tremendous progress in Nigeria. He said: “This special visit was done last in March 1937. That was the first time the kings in Yorubaland met in Oyo town and today, history was made with the visit of The Arole Oodua, Oba Enitan Ogunwusi, Ojaja II and I feel delighted to host you and to reassure you that I am ready to work with you.”

The baton has now passed to the newly installed Alaafin Hakeem Owoade. Lending immense credibility to the selection process of Owoade was the wise initiative of Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state in ensuring the fulfillment of the role assigned to Ifa in the appointment of a new Alaafin. He could not have gotten a better bearer of the will of Ifa than Professor Wande Abimbola. He is not just the foremost scholar on Ifa, he is the Araba (the head of the babalawos in Oyo).This is consistent with the view of Kayode Esuola that ‘Ifa remains the most systematized and authentic source of clarifying significant Yoruba matters, in all aspects of life’.

There is a sense of dejavu, of reliving the past in all of this. There is the striking parallel in how Adeyemi and Owoade emerged triumphant. Both instances defaulted on the side of integrity. As the commissioner for local government and home affairs in Western state,1970, it was the responsibility of ‘Dr Omololu olunloyo to announce the chosen candidate.

Dr olunloyo wrote in his book, “I had to visit ile ife when the trouble was too much. I submitted the qualified names to Ooni Aderemi for help. Aderemi stood up and told me let me consult my ancestors. When Aderemi came back after two hours, he gave a clear answer to all our fears ! Adeyemi is the best of the pack, declared the Ooni, first of all he will live longer on the throne, secondly during his reign there will  be peace and tranquility. I did not wait for a second, I thank Kabiyesi and left for ibadan. The following Monday I call the press and announce Adeyemi as the next king’. 

The fulsome role accorded Ifa in this process is a manifestation of the sociological continuity from pre colonial Yoruba society to contemporary post colonial Nigeria; a functional state-society continuity. I had hoped that Alaafin Owoade would vindicate this good augury with calculated and self assured steps to bolster and give meaning to the platitude of working for the unity, solidarity and development of Yorubaland.

The confidential reports of what transpired at his installation ceremony do not provide a basis for this optimism. I also sat down to watch the audio visual recording of Alaafin’s reception of the first lady. I thought the seating arrangement at the high table was quite belittling of the Ooni. I waited in vain for his special recognition from the host. None came save the acknowledgement “of all monarchs” here present.

You can accuse Ogunwusi of many flaws but rallying fellow Yoruba Obas for the cause of unity, brotherhood and mutual respect is not one of such flaws.

To you my friend, father and patriarch, Baba ria Enitan Ogunwusi, Ojaja the second, let us utilise this occasion to take stock and make necessary amends.

This week, President Bola Tinubu set tongues wagging when he formally requested the approval of the National Assembly to secure a new wave of multi-currency loans amounting to approximately $23.5 billion, €2.265 billion, ¥15 billion, and N757.9 billion, as part of the country’s 2025-2026 external borrowing plan.

Already, a lot of citizens have expressed concerns that the country may be heading towards a debt trap, a situation in which its debt is difficult or impossible to repay, almost two decades after it achieved debt forgiveness from the Paris Club.

More worrying with this development is the fact that, at a time when the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso and his team are aggressively pursuing a tight monetary policy regime aimed at curbing inflation and stabilising the naira, the federal government’s push for fresh borrowing appears to contradict this policy direction. Such a move risks undermining the effectiveness of monetary tightening by injecting more liquidity into the economy through increased public spending, potentially fueling inflationary pressures, distorting market signals, and eroding investor confidence in the government’s fiscal discipline.

Precisely, the fresh proposed borrowing plan, spanning multiple international lenders and development institutions, marks one of the most ambitious external financing proposals of this administration to date and will certainly elevate the country’s existing debt stock.

As at December 31, 2024, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N144.67 trillion, according to data from the Debt Management Office. This was a 48.58 per cent rise from the N97.34 trillion recorded by the country as at the end of 2023.

However, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has dismissed widespread claims suggesting that the country plans to borrow $25 billion within one to two years, calling such impressions as totally erroneous and misleading. He explained that the actual borrowing plan for 2025 is $1.2 billion through the DMO and up to $2 billion via the multilateral borrowing programme. These, he said, are tied to specific projects and would be disbursed over time, not in a lump sum.

“The actual borrowing for each year is contained in the annual budget. In 2025, the external borrowing component is $1.23 billion, and it has not yet been drawn. This is planned for the second half of 2025. Also, the plan is for both the federal and several state governments across numerous geopolitical zones, including Abia, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Kaduna, Lagos, Niger, Oyo, Sokoto, and Yobe States.

“Importantly, it should be noted that the borrowing rolling plan does not equate to an automatic increase in the nation’s debt burden. The nature of the rolling plan means that borrowings are split over the period of the projects. For example, a large proportion of projects in the 2024 – 2026 rolling plan have multi-year draw downs of between five to seven years, which are project-tied loans,” the minister stated.

Despite Edun’s clarification, the general concern is that Nigeria’s debt profile has been rising at an alarming pace. While borrowing is not inherently bad, as many nations leverage debt to fund growth, what distinguishes Nigeria’s case is the absence of a clear, measurable impact over the years, which has heightened distrust between the citizens and public office holders.

Public trust is the currency of governance. When leaders borrow in the name of national development, the people expect transparency, accountability, and results. This erosion of public trust is multifaceted, stemming from a combination of perceived corruption, lack of transparency in governance, inconsistent policy implementation, and a general feeling among citizens that their welfare is not the primary focus of leadership.

When citizens witness vast sums being borrowed with little to show for it in terms of improved public services or economic opportunities, skepticism naturally takes root. The opaqueness surrounding how loans are secured, how funds are disbursed, and the accountability mechanisms in place further fuels this distrust.

For instance, a recent revelation by civic tech organisation, BudgIT Nigeria, that it uncovered over 11,000 projects worth N6.93 trillion inserted by the National Assembly in the 2025 budget underscores growing concerns about transparency and fiscal discipline.

BudgIT had described the development as a deeply entrenched culture of exploitation and abuse, led by top-ranking members of the National Assembly, which is another means of frittering borrowed public funds meant to support national development.

This lack of transparency creates a chasm between the government and the governed, making it increasingly difficult for authorities to garner public support for necessary, albeit sometimes painful, economic reforms.

Indeed, Nigeria is not the first nation to borrow, and won’t be the last. But what distinguishes successful economies is not the size of their debt, but the clarity of their vision and the trust of their people.

This, however, is the time for other civil society groups, just like BudgIT, and indeed the citizens, to wake up, stay vigilant, and demand full accountability from those in power. We must ask the right questions about public finance, scrutinise every line of the budget, and track every amount borrowed to support governance. If we fail to act now, these massive loans meant to improve lives as had been reported in the past, could quietly vanish into private pockets, fueling corruption instead of development.

By prioritising fiscal discipline, fostering transparency, and actively working to restore the faith of its citizens, Nigeria can unlock its immense potential and build a more prosperous and equitable future for its citizens.

In the absence of trust, even the most well-intentioned policies will be met with suspicion. Therefore, as the government considers another round of massive borrowing, it must also begin the hard work of rebuilding its trust deficit.

There is supposed to be a formidable coalition of powerful regional and national political forces working to upstage President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027. But this coalition isn’t coalescing and appears to be crumbling before it has even had a chance to be formed. Three major reasons account for this.

The first reason is what I call the aspirational collision of the major movers of the coalition. By that, I mean the two major power blocs behind the coalition have irreconcilably divergent ideas about who should occupy the upper end of the ticket the coalition will produce.

PDP’s Atiku Abubakar basically wants a recreation of the 2019 electoral lineup. He would be the presidential candidate, and Labor Party’s Peter Obi would be the vice-presidential candidate. It is predicated on the assumption that Atiku Abubakar, by virtue of his primordial identity, will be a magnet for northern votes.

If he is the only prominent northern candidate in 2027, he will win both Muslim and Christian votes in the region, as northern Christians trust him more than any northern Muslim politician of his generation on account of his remarkable broadmindedness, though his close association with Nasir El-Rufai, widely regarded by many northern Christians as a crass, unremorseful Christophobe because of his past actions and utterances, undermines this appeal.

Peter Obi is supposed to bring the enthusiasm and votes he got from the 2023 presidential election to the coalition. However, it appears that although Peter Obi isn’t personally ill-disposed to being Atiku’s running mate again, his support base in the South would deplete considerably should he choose to play second fiddle to a northerner this time.

The dramatic rise in his political capital in 2023 was entirely the consequence of his being the only notable Southern Christian presidential candidate in the race. Plus, the prevalent sentiment in the South is that Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure was the North’s chance to rule. The next eight years from 2023 is the South’s turn.

If Obi were to accept being Atiku’s running mate, he would be seen by people in the South, including his native Southeast, as a betrayer, as a quisling, of the region. And that would mark the irretrievable diminution of his political capital.

Yet, it is unconstitutional for Atiku to be anybody’s running mate, having been a two-term vice president before. So, there is zero possibility of Atiku agreeing to be running mate to Obi, whom he brought to national limelight by choosing him as his running mate in 2019, against the recommendation of major players in the PDP at the time.

This is an unresolvable impasse. As much as the South justifiably thinks it is its turn to produce the president until 2031, the North has been unsuccessfully calling attention to the disadvantage it has suffered as a result of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s death, which prematurely returned power to the South for six years.

The Atiku group’s carrot to Obi—to accept being VP in exchange for Atiku serving only one term—is informed by this logic. It somehow compensates the North’s six-year loss and promises a return of power to the Southeast, which has never produced a president (or even a vice president) since the start of the Fourth Republic.

Nevertheless, if the chatter I see on social media is any guide, Obi’s support base is unpersuaded by this. Were Obi to accept being a running mate to Atiku in 2027, many Obi supporters say they would rather sit out the election or, worse, vote for Tinubu to ensure that the presidency remains in the South.

This is complicated by the reality that, were Atiku to stay out of the 2027 presidential contest and endorse Obi, it’s unlikely to improve Obi’s electoral fortunes in parts of the North that rejected him in 2023.

The second reason the coalition is unlikely to succeed is that key northern politicians who are already positioning themselves to be Tinubu’s successor in 2031 are either not part of it or are in it to undercut it from within. There are two reasons for this.

First, an Atiku presidency would mean their aspirations to be president would be deferred by more years than a Tinubu second term. Plus, even if Atiku honors his alleged pledge to serve for only one term (which is never a guarantee, given the intoxication of power), he would hand over power to the South. That counts them out.

Second, opposing Tinubu’s second term by joining a coalition would ensure that they take themselves out of consideration for Tinubu’s support in 2031. It is self-seeking political calculation that assumes the nature and form of the outlines of the future.

The third reason the coalition would have trouble taking off is Tinubu’s own determined, single-minded, well-oiled—even state-sanctioned—effort to destroy it. I’ll only talk about one effort because, while many people may be aware of it, only a few seem to be conscious of it.

Tinubu is deploying a political propaganda tactic called the bandwagon technique. This method encourages people to act or think a certain way because “everyone else is doing it.” It appeals to the human desire to be part of the majority or to avoid being left out.

It’s a powerful technique because it leverages social pressure and the fear of missing out (FOMO). The unceasing gale of political defections of prominent political actors across the country is intended to cause Tinubu’s opponents to question their judgement and give up their opposition to him.

Even Afrobeats music icon Davido—who won well-deserved plaudits and brownie points from Igbo people a few days ago for telling a Yoruba Twitter interlocutor who questioned his outward symbolic associations with Igbo that he is “Igbo by blood”—appears to be part of this bandwagon technique.

Video records of him visiting Tinubu in the Presidential Villa and introducing well-known Igbo entertainment figures as “APC members” fit the bandwagon method perfectly. Here’s a man whom the president’s media team had tackled vigorously for his criticism of Tinubu’s government, whose uncle is a PDP governor, and who publicly identifies with the Igbo (a core stronghold of opposition to Tinubu), now openly identifying with the president at the same time that major political players in opposition parties are switching to APC. That’s unlikely to be random.

When you add this to the predominant sentiment in Nigeria that incumbents don’t lose elections, even if they actually lose them (with the exception of Goodluck Jonathan), you are looking at a systematic, coordinated effort to construct the rhetoric of inevitability around Tinubu’s second term.

A coalition of politicians who don’t offer or promise anything different from Tinubu and who have irreconcilable asymmetries in their expectations of what the coalition should produce will have a hard time overcoming Tinubu’s strategies.

This is sad because, as I previously pointed out, the conditions in the country should preclude Tinubu from even being considered for a second term. A May 24, 2025, special report I read in Vanguard by Dr. Dele Sobowale titled “Tinubu at Midterm: Who are the People Gov’t is Satisfying?” was particularly striking.

Sobowale's Consultancy conducted a nationwide survey to assess public perception of the federal government's performance. The study involved a brief verbal questionnaire posed to Nigerians across all six geopolitical zones, cutting across age, ethnicity, religion, gender, and income levels.

Participants were asked two simple yes-or-no questions: whether their lives were better now compared to two years ago, and whether they expected things to improve in the next two years.

The findings were stark. Only 3 percent of respondents said their lives had improved, while an overwhelming 97 percent said they had not. Even more striking was the pessimism about the future: just 1 percent expressed hope for improvement in the next two years, while 99 percent did not.

These results reflect a deep sense of dissatisfaction and growing despair among the Nigerian populace. In a normal setting, no government that has enabled this much misery index and that is burdened by this heavy perceptual burden should even run for a second term. But this is Nigeria.