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[OPINION] Nigeria First Policy: Beyond the Mantra - Obinna Chima
Nigeria’s Federal Executive Council (FEC) rose from its meeting this week and announced the approval of the ‘Renewed Hope Nigeria First Policy.’ The new policy, whose framework is still being worked out, seeks to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic economy and promote local content.
The policy, expected to become effective as soon as the Executive Order is signed by President Bola Tinubu, mirrors President Donald Trump’s ‘America First,’ that is characterised by tariffs and protectionist measures that have since prompted countries to re-evaluate and reshape their international trade strategies.
By making local content central to government spending, the federal government hopes to drive job creation, industrial growth, and sustainable economic development. The policy also seeks to foster a new business culture that is bold, confident, and very Nigerian. It aims at making government investment directly benefit our people and industries by changing how we spend, how we procure, and how we build our economy.
Information and National Orientation Minister, Mohammed Idris, described the policy as a bold shift in the country’s economic approach.
“If there are any businesses to be done by anybody, the priority will be Nigeria first of all, if you have any local content, there is no reason for you to go outside this country to import. Now, this is in the form of an executive bill that will soon be issued by Mr. President. Already, Council has approved a set of those proposals and the Office of the Federal Attorney General of the Federation has been directed to prepare an executive order to be issued by Mr. President.
“This seeks to foster a new business culture that will be bold, confident, but also very, very Nigerian, and it aims at making government to invest in our people and our industries by changing how government spends money, how we procure and how we also will build our economy,” he explained.
Part of the initiative is that the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) will revise and enforce procurement rules that prioritise Nigerian-made goods and homegrown solutions across all Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs). Where foreign contracts are unavoidable, they must include provisions for technology transfer, local production, or capacity development in Nigeria. MDAs were directed to immediately review and resubmit their procurement plans to align with the new policy directives.
Already, the government has warned that breaches would result in disciplinary action and possible cancellation of the procurement process.
With a population of over 200 million people and an abundance of natural resources, there is no doubt that domestic production is the way to go for the country in order to arrest the high level of youth unemployment, lessen the alarming level of insecurity, boost the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and encourage exports.
But in a nation often accustomed to grand pronouncements that fade into the background, one can’t help but ask: Will this policy truly transcend rhetoric, or is it destined to become just another well-intentioned mantra? While the policy would likely face implementation challenges and resistance from entrenched procurement interests, does the government have what it takes to enforce its compliance at all levels? This is because Nigeria does not lack ideas for societal transformation; what has failed the country over the year is committed and visionary leadership.
One of such policies that comes to mind is the ‘Change Begins with Me,’ which was championed by the administration of former President Mohammadu Buhari. While the intentions were noble, it only ended up as a mantra as it failed to make any meaningful contribution towards national transformation.
The paradox of public policy implementation has continued to mar the realisation of public objectives in the country as most government policies either end prematurely, as they are sometimes purposely designed not to be properly implemented.
The success of this policy therefore, hinges on the commitment of our policymakers and political leaders to see it through by prioritising its implementation.
For me, former vice president Atiku Abubakar’s challenge to President Tinubu to trade his Escalade for Innoson, Nord or any made-in-Nigeria car, as well as end the practice of travelling abroad for medical treatment, highlights the need for, not just the president, but public office holders in general to lead by example to grow domestic businesses with ‘Nigeria First.’
It also underscores the importance of government officials demonstrating their commitment to national development through their personal choices, thereby encouraging wider adoption and investment in Nigerian products and services. This challenge also raises questions about the practical implementation and sincerity of the policy and whether truly it translates into tangible support for local businesses and infrastructure.
For the ‘Nigeria First’ to be effective, the government must also channel all its resources to ‘how’ – the crucial mechanism of policy implementation, monitoring, and evaluation. This is where the true test of any public policy lies, and where Nigeria frequently stumbles.
This policy must also not be designed in isolation. Crucial input must be gotten from critical stakeholders in the society, such as the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, and other operators in the export value chain. In addition, the formulation of this policy which we were told is still ongoing, must be informed by reliable data. This will allow for evidence-based choices and the ability to track progress and identify areas needing improvement.
From the foregoing, the Nigeria First policy, while noble in its intent, should not end up being just a slogan or political rhetoric. It must truly resonate with the people and bring about tangible transformation that will help the country withstand shocks and uncertainties in the global environment, due largely to Trump’s policies. Additionally, it must be backed by robust actions that address the underlying challenges facing the country and become a guiding principle for a prosperous future
[OPINION] Concerning the Opposition - Okey Ikechukwu
The pretence persists, does it not? That there is some real political opposition in the country today. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has so far been prancing all over the place, since it lost out in the power game about ten years ago, and loudly claiming to be “the main opposition party” in Nigeria. This situation of opposition by self-proclamation is yet to translate into any meaningful template that can pass muster as intelligent and organized political opposition in a 21st Century world. Ten years since it was ousted from the seat of power it, the party has been progressively strengthening its growing reputation as the Guardian of a Barren Territory and the custodian of a non-existent territory.
So, come, let us go back in time to what was said about the PDP on this page, on August 7, 2020, can be reaffirmed today. On that occasion it was said here: “There is a strong rumour in town, as I write. Propagators of this rumour believe themselves to be stating a fact of our general experience, when they make certain statements about the PDP. This “dangerous” rumour, which initially gained currency because the party came second in the elections, has to do with the claim, mostly by the party itself and some media reports, that the PDP is the major platform for opposition politics in Nigeria today. This is altogether absurd, if we are to take political opposition seriously”.
We say here, today, five years after the above submission, that we must make a distinction between a set of angry people, all of them convinced that a lot is wrong with the country, and an organized political opposition with demonstrated capacity for effective interventions in the political space. An opposition party must first keep its house in order, and this is something the PDP is not doing. A serious opposition party should also be in control of its own gates and determine the Rules of Engagement for all movements into and out of its premises. The party is remiss in that regard, and has been for a long time now.
Just look at the PDP today. Its governors are not doing much better than anyone else. Its party primaries, before and after it lost power at the centre, is slipshod at best; and riddled with the same malaises you find all over the national political landscape. The party recently complained of being destabilized from outside by the APC and its agents, implying and proclaiming the world that it lacks internal cohesion and has limited capacity for serious political strategizing. It cannot sack, reign in, or manage Nwesom Wike. It also cannot now have a credible NEC meeting anymore, or issue a clear resolution on any issue; including whether it should meet or not. And its members are fleeing the fold in droves.
As was said in the aforementioned article: “To call the PDP an opposition party, or to tag it the “major” opposition party in Nigeria, is to take one “necessary” condition for real opposition party politics for a “sufficient” condition that qualifies a party for that appellation. Just as there are necessary and sufficient conditions for any creature to be called a python, or an eagle, there are also necessary and sufficient conditions for serious opposition politics. Chief Obafemi Awolowo, among others, met the necessary and sufficient conditions in this regard, because he had both an ideological distinctness and an engagement strategy that stood out in bold relief.
The PDP has none of the above. “It also does not seem to be working towards transmuting into an intelligent opposition that is working towards taking over power and offering better leadership. It is not a coherent and articulate opposition by any stretch of the imagination today”. That was the position of this column five years ago, that position is hereby reaffirmed without apologies.
An informed, organized, focused and articulate opposition is an essential component of the modern democratic enterprise. Such opposition is needed in order to keep any sitting government on its toes and to keep everyone focused on what could be done better; or at least what could be done differently. That is the right thing for any opposition party to do for us in the current democracy. But it is precisely what it is not doing, in my view that is.
Recall that the much-vaunted opposition leaders rallied and called on the National Assembly to oppose President Bola Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State about two months ago. They did not, to the best of my knowledge, have any quiet strategy sessions with their lawmakers or members of their parties across the nation before and after the media outing. Their elected members sat through the proceedings and made no objections and State of Emergency went unchallenged in the National Assembly.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar spoke on behalf of the opposition leaders at a press conference at the Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, saying: “We call on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to immediately revoke this unconstitutional proclamation and reinstate the elected Governor, Deputy Governor, and State Assembly of Rivers State. We call on patriotic Senators and Representatives to vote against this illegal action when it comes before them for approval. The National Assembly must stand on the right side of history and not allow itself to be used to legitimise an unconstitutional power grab.”
Atiku also called on Nigerians to resist and urged the judiciary to strike out the President’s declaration of a State of Emergency in Rivers State. A press statement, and a press conference.
It was asked here five years ago, and is being asked here again: “Can we say in all good conscience that the PDP has a genuinely respected Council of Elders that can call anyone to order today?” I have my doubts. It was also said then that “There is too much bitterness and bad blood within the fold. There is a reprehensible fixation on hegemony building and on maintaining and driving the old “godfather” legacy that ruined the party”. That is why the current party leadership is laughable at best.
Speaking on behalf of several party leaders, including those of questionable political address and ideological coloration, Alhaji Atiku said during the aforementioned press conference of march: “We strongly condemn this development and call on all Nigerians of good conscience to resist this brazen assault on the constitution of our country and the institutions of our democracy. We call on patriotic Senators and Representatives to vote against this illegal action when it comes before them for approval”.
He was calling on “Nigerians of good conscience” right? The very Nigerians who are hungry, worsted and never part of any real political process or consultation within the PDP itself and all the other parties demanding to be taken seriously? They should rise up and “resist” the state of emergency? How? With what? This is laughable at best. So is the call “all civil society organisations, political groups to stand firm in the defence of this democracy that we have all toiled to build”. Is it really a democracy? Has it really been one in the genuine sense of the term since 1999? Just asking.
“The earthworm, for instance, is not a species of Anaconda, or a python”; we said here five years ago. “The fact that it is longish and crawls on its belly does not make it a python, or a Boa constrictor. True, it has no legs and generally wriggles like a snake as it moves. But it is still an earthworm. It is just like a butterfly daring to prance forward, to be numbered along with golden eagles just because it can wobble about in the garden’s gentle breeze under very benign weather. Nothing prevents the butterfly from making untrue claims. It its sympathisers try to propagate such falsehood that the consternation around them will quickly bring them to their senses”.
That, in my view, is the situation with the PDP today.
We noted here, back then that “the animosities arising from the 2015 PDP primaries held in Port Harcourt is still there, and is still simmering at the same unseemly temperature. It is one thing to say that someone’s hand was forced open and the candidacy of the party “snatched” from him in Port Harcourt. This is quite apart from the grievances of those from the South-west, who were dumbfounded by the arbitrary “reallocation” of the party chairmanship months earlier. Then you have Sule Lamido, Makarfi and others who felt scandalized by what they considered the “ingratitude” of a party that saw their steadfast loyalty as nothing. The fact that the best products of the primaries were political returnees rankled to no end with many. Even today, it still rankles and fuels all manner of subterfuge”.
In sum, and to reaffirm our subsisting perception of the post-Obasanjo PDP mentioned in the earlier-referenced article: “The PDP still cannot even “do expo” and copy somebody – anybody at all – in opposition politics. It ran a sleepwalking presidency that saw it out of power in 2015, because it stood by as if paralysed while it was branded locally and internationally as “not very strong in the war against corruption.” The stigma stuck. On top of that, poor internal democracy, among other problems, led to the exit of several governors. The inability to design a containment strategy in the face of a house crumbling upon itself was the last straw and the 2015 elections became the burial ceremony.
All things considered, and given the disturbing trajectory of national politics, especially the alleged opposition politics of parties like the PDP and Labour party, we conclude, as we did five years ago, “If opposition politics is about sound understanding of national needs, an engagement strategy designed to use that understanding to galvanize national consciousness around a clear ideological template and drive it by intelligent strategic communication, then we must politely tell the PDP to wake up. Folly is different from creativity”.
[OPINION] The Pope’s Election: Not for Roman Catholics - Valentine Obienyem
The election of the pope is not solely the responsibility of the Roman Catholic Church; it is the entire Catholic Church that participates in this sacred act. While the Latin (Western) Rite, commonly known as the Roman Catholic Church, is the largest and most widespread, it is but one of 24 autonomous (sui iuris) Churches that together form the universal Catholic Church. Each of these Churches is fully Catholic, maintaining full communion with the pope, yet preserving their own hierarchical structures, liturgical traditions, and canonical systems.
What unites these diverse Churches is not only their communion with the Vicar of Christ, the Pope, but also their shared apostolicity. The Eastern Catholic Churches, like the Latin Church, are rooted in the apostolic tradition, uphold the apostolic faith, and maintain valid apostolic succession. Their bishops are true successors of the apostles, and their sacraments, particularly the Eucharist and Holy Orders, are fully valid. This ensures that they are coequal in dignity with the Latin Church, not subordinate to it.
Recognising this shared apostolic foundation, some members of the Eastern Catholic clergy have been elevated to the College of Cardinals by various popes. When under the age of eighty, these cardinals are fully eligible to participate in a papal conclave, voting alongside their Latin-rite counterparts to elect a new pope. Their participation is a powerful indicator to the universality of the Church and its deep-rooted apostolic tradition.
At the 2025 conclave, Eastern Catholic cardinals included: Béchara Boutros al-Rahi, Maronite Patriarch of Antioch (Lebanon); George Alencherry, Major Archbishop of the Syro-Malabar Catholic Church (India); Baselios Cleemis Thottunkal, Major Archbishop of the Syro-Malankara Catholic Church (India), the first cardinal from his Church; and Raphaël Bedros XXI Minassian, Patriarch of Cilicia of the Armenian Catholic Church, who was elevated to the cardinalate in 2022 by Pope Francis. I personally want the possibility of all the other rites having their own Cardinals.
Their presence at the conclave not only reflects the Church’s liturgical and cultural diversity but also affirms that the papacy is a ministry of unity, exercised for the entire apostolic Church, both Eastern and Western. Thus, the election of the pope is not an exclusively Latin affair but a deeply ecclesial act, rooted in the shared apostolic heritage and full communion of all the Churches that form the Catholic Church.
In an age when misunderstandings often reduce Catholic identity to one cultural or liturgical expression, it is vital to recover the full breadth of the Church’s catholicity. The pope, as the visible sign of unity, is not the head of one Church among many, but the servant of the communion of all. This is why they call themselves “Servus servorum Dei” - Servant of the Servants of God. His election, therefore, is not a Roman prerogative but a universal event - an act that draws from the richness of all the apostolic Churches and reaffirms the unity of the Body of Christ across every rite, tradition, and people.
Augustine University Congratulates Pope Leo XIV
On behalf of the Board of Trustees, Governing Council, and Management of Augustine University Ilara, Epe, Lagos State, I, Femi Otedola CON, Chancellor, proudly congratulate our new Pope, Leo XIV , a devoted Augustinian Priest from whom our University draws its name and heritage… We are especially proud that His Holiness visited the Augustinian community in Abuja , in 2016, where he commissioned key projects. We pray for God’s guidance as he undertakes the sacred responsibility of leading 1.5 billion Catholics around the world. Long live the Pope!
Femi Otedola, CON
Residents, business owners lament as darkness hits Abuja
Several areas in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, have been thrown into darkness for days.
The Abuja Electricity Distribution Company, AEDC, confirmed this in three separate outage statements released on its X handle on Thursday and Friday.
The disco blamed the blackout on technical fault affecting the feeders serving the concerned locations.
“We regret to inform you that the ongoing power outage is due to a technical fault affecting the feeders serving these locations,” the AEDC stated in a notice on Friday.
Several areas and businesses affected include Jabi District, Lifecamp, Kado District, Aire Gas, Total Marble, and others along Kaduna Road.
Also, Idu, Citec Mbora, Karmo, EFAB Global Estate, Karmo, Woodfield Estate, Zulu Community and all its environs are experiencing outages.
Also, Sokale Garden, Dutse Makaranta, Dutse Bokuma, Ushafa, Pegi, Gigo, Defence College Estate, Kogo, Zuma, Veritas University, Jamb Headquarters, Law School, Bwari and environs are experiencing similar power outages.
Meanwhile, for Bwari and its environs, the disco said the epileptic power supply was particularly due to a technical fault in the 33 kV Bwari Feeder serving the areas.
“The ongoing power outage is due to a technical fault on the 33kV Bwari Feeder, which is affecting supply to these areas.
“The TCN technical team is working tirelessly to restore power as quickly as possible,” the Abuja disco disclosed.
Meanwhile, residents in the affected areas have continued to lament the impact of the outage.
Benjamin Aina, a resident of Ushafa, said his area has had no power for the past week.
“It is painful we haven’t had power supply for one week now. My food stored in the freezer is all spoiled,” he told DAILY POST.
Similarly, Musa Abdullahi, a resident of Jabu, decried the outage, noting that he now spend more on petrol to power his generator.
“We have not had power supply for over a week now. The situation is really impacting households and businesses in Jabu. I now spend more money to buy fuel. The AEDC and TCN need to fix this situation,” he stated.
[DailyPost]
Court grants EeZeeTee ₦20m bail
Justice Chukwujekwu Aneke of the Federal High Court in Lagos has granted ₦20 million bail to music producer and former manager of gospel singer Mercy Chinwo, Ezekiel Onyedikachi, popularly known as EeZeeTee, over a fresh $255,000 foreign transaction fraud allegation filed by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
In a brief ruling on Friday, Justice Aneke ruled that the bail must be secured with one surety who resides in Lagos and owns property equivalent in value to the bail amount. The judge, who had earlier released EeZeeTee to his lawyer, Ojukwu Chikaosolu, gave the defendant 72 hours to meet the terms.
The EFCC originally filed a 14-count charge against EeZeeTee for allegedly converting funds fraudulently but later reduced the charges to seven, accusing him of conducting forex transactions without a valid license.
EFCC prosecutor Bilikisu Buhari-Bala informed the court that in June 2023, EeZeeTee allegedly carried out a $52,895 forex transaction with one Oladotun Olaobaju Mureke without the approval of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
She said the act contravenes Sections 5 and 29(1)(c) of the Foreign Exchange (Monitoring and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act, Cap F34, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 2004, and is punishable under Section 29(2) of the same law.
EeZeeTee pleaded not guilty. The matter has been adjourned to June 20, 2025, for trial.
[TheNation]
JAMB releases 2025 UTME results, withholds 39,834 others
The Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board on Friday announced the release of the 2025 Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) results, with results of 39,834 candidates being withheld.
The JAMB Registrar, Prof. Ishaq Oloyede, disclosed this on Friday during the official release of the 2025 UTME results at JAMB headquarters, Bwari.
Oloyede revealed that the seizure of results was due to suspected examination malpractices, and about 80 individuals are being probed for exam-related offences with Anambra State having the highest number of suspects.
Details later….
[Punch]
Maresca ready for Chelsea’s ‘huge’ Newcastle test
Enzo Maresca has backed Chelsea’s revitalised midfield to make the difference in Sunday’s crucial clash with top five rivals Newcastle.
Maresca named an unchanged starting line-up for successive Premier League games for the first time in six months as champions Liverpool were beaten 3-1 by the Blues last weekend.
The return of Romeo Lavia, who has started consecutive matches for the first time since November after missing virtually all of last season, has been vital to Chelsea’s ability to control the midfield battle.
Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo are playing their best football since arriving at Stamford Bridge, with the latter this week named the club’s player of the season.
With a solid foundation behind him, Chelsea forward Cole Palmer finally looked back to his best as he ended his long goal drought against Liverpool.
Maresca believes the midfield engine room could hold the key to victory at St James’ Park, with Newcastle’s charge to fourth place inspired by the form of Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali.
“Absolutely, yes. Against Liverpool we repeated the first XI after six months. It’s important when you can continue with the same players,” Maresca said.
“We have Romeo back fit, Moises is doing well, Enzo and Cole are doing well. Newcastle also have Bruno Guimaraes, Tonali, (Jacob) Murphy, (Joe) Willock. They have different kinds of players. I expect for sure a huge game.”
Fifth-placed Chelsea go into Sunday’s game behind Newcastle only on goals scored, with both sides knowing a win will be a huge boost in the race to qualify for the Champions League.
Maresca’s men, who will face Real Betis in the UEFA Conference League final, have hit form at just the right moment, winning six of their last nine league games.
But whatever the result on Sunday, their destiny will likely still rest on their final two fixtures, at home to Manchester United and away to top five rivals Nottingham Forest.
Asked whether Newcastle’s attacking style could play into Chelsea’s hands, Maresca said: “I hope so. We’ve played games against teams who play a low block, against teams that try to be aggressive, and we made some good games in both situations.”
[Vanguard]
Wale Edun says progress on naira-for-crude deal will be revealed soon
Wale Edun, the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, has promised to provide further updates on the naira-for-crude deal in due course.
In a statement on Friday, Mohammed Manga, the ministry’s director of information and public relations, said a meeting of the technical subcommittee on the crude and refined product sales in naira initiative convened on Thursday.
Speaking at the meeting, Edun commended the “continued collaboration across agencies and partners, promising to provide further updates in due course”.
According to the statement, the session reviewed implementation milestones and recorded progress since the last engagement.
Manga said the meeting, chaired by Edun, was attended by Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and chairman of the technical subcommittee, and Olu Verheijen, special adviser to the president on energy.
Also present at the meeting were senior representatives of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, local refining operators, and regulatory institutions, including the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), and the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA).
Stakeholders were said to have reaffirmed their shared commitment to the effective and seamless execution of the policy, “which remains a critical component of President Bola Tinubu’s broader strategy” to strengthen the naira, enhance energy security, and promote local value addition within the sector.
Nigeria commenced the sale of crude oil and refined petroleum products in naira to local refineries on October 1, 2024, to improve supply, save the country millions of dollars in petroleum products imports, and ultimately reduce pump prices.
On March 10, TheCable reported that the NNPC had halted the naira-for-crude deal until 2030, as the government-owned company has forward-sold all its crude oil.
Days later, the Dangote refinery said it had temporarily halted the sale of petroleum products in naira.
However, on April 9, the federal government said the naira-for-crude oil deal will continue after the first phase, which ended on March 31.
[TheCable]
[OPINION] ECOWAS at a Crossroads - Adekeye Adebajo
The hard-won achievements of the 50-year-old Economic Community of West African States are at risk of unraveling amid growing political and economic turmoil. Following the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the 12-member group’s survival depends on the political leadership of its three largest economies.
ACCRA – While attending a recent United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) leadership seminar with Ghanaian cabinet members in Accra, I noticed that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) had kicked off its 50th anniversary celebrations.
ECOWAS, established in 1975, was the brainchild of Nigeria’s then-Minister of Economic Development Adebayo Adedeji, who went on to head the UN Economic Commission for Africa from 1975 to 1991. It was his vision of a borderless West Africa where goods, people, and services could move freely that ultimately united 15 countries across the region.
By 1990, ECOWAS had established a free-trade area, and West Africa recorded one of the world’s highest intra-regional mobility rates. In the following decade, it led two peacekeeping missions that helped end civil wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Under the leadership of Ghana’s Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the bloc supported the democratic transitions of Guinea, Niger, Togo, and Burkina Faso. In 2015, it reached another milestone with the adoption of a common external tariff.
But these hard-won achievements are now at risk of being undone. Since the 2010s, jihadist insurgencies led by Islamic State (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda affiliates – and partly fueled by NATO’s 2011 intervention in Libya – have devastated the Sahel. In 2024, the tri-border region of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso accounted for 3,066 of the world’s 7,555 terrorism-related deaths; nearly five million people have fled to neighboring countries.
The resulting insecurity has destabilized the region, triggering a wave of military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea between 2020 and 2024. Meanwhile, the civilian governments of Togo, Benin, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and Senegal became increasingly autocratic.
Compounding these problems, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger withdrew from ECOWAS in January, accusing the bloc of serving neo-colonial interests. Tensions arose over Nigeria’s close political and commercial ties to France, which have grown, even as French troops have been expelled from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal, and Côte d’Ivoire amid often fierce anti-French protests.
With the departure of the three Sahelian countries, ECOWAS has lost 76 million people – roughly 17% of its population – and nearly half of its territory. Now, the bloc’s survival depends on six of its founding members, most of which are mired in turmoil.
Nigeria, which accounts for over 50% of ECOWAS’s population and over 60% of its economic output, was once widely viewed as the bloc’s stabilizing force. But it has since become a source of instability, owing to its ongoing failure to contain the jihadist insurgency in the country’s volatile northeast.
In March, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu declared a “state of emergency” in the oil-rich and politically unstable Rivers, suspending the state parliament and Governor Siminalayi Fubara for six months. International and domestic observers, including the Nigerian Bar Association, condemned the move as unconstitutional amid growing concerns over creeping autocracy.
Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa’s second-largest economy, could also slide into autocratic rule. President Alassane Ouattara – a former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund – oversaw average annual growth of 7% between 2012 and 2023, accelerating infrastructure development and expanding electricity access. But he is serving an unconstitutional third presidential term and has manipulated state institutions to sideline political opponents, including opposition leader Tidjane Thiam, who was recently banned from running in October’s presidential election.
In neighboring Ghana, ECOWAS’s third-largest economy, President John Mahama has returned to power following a landslide election victory. His predecessor, Nana Akufo-Addo, left behind a legacy of economic turmoil, marked by corruption allegations and a 2022 sovereign-debt default that triggered a $3 billion IMF bailout. The resulting austerity measures led to rolling power outages and a steep decline in living standards, paving the way for Mahama’s return from the political wilderness.
Meanwhile, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have embarked on an experiment in regional autonomy. Before withdrawing from ECOWAS, the three countries formed the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) – a mutual-defense pact aimed at creating a joint counter-terrorism force, establishing an investment bank, and collaborating on agriculture, energy, and infrastructure projects.
Despite these ambitions, all three remain part of the eight-member, French-controlled West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). Each has curtailed democratic freedoms and announced five-year transitions to civilian rule while relying on Russian Africa Corps mercenaries for security support. Yet the shift in foreign backers has done little to turn the tide against jihadist insurgents, with large swaths of their territory still under militant control.
Political instability and climate change have underscored the structural vulnerabilities of ECOWAS’s heavily indebted member states, which remain largely dependent on mineral and cash-crop exports. Intra-regional trade accounts for just 12% of total commerce, while 38.4% of adults live below the poverty line. The bloc also suffers from high unemployment, especially among people under 25, who comprise 65% of its population and account for many of the desperate migrants risking dangerous Atlantic and Mediterranean crossings to reach Europe. With limited resources to address infrastructure deficits, member states are acutely susceptible to climate-related threats like droughts, floods, and desertification.
Despite an increasingly hostile geopolitical environment, ECOWAS’s three largest economies must take the lead in driving industrialization and establishing a functioning customs union. With little international support, the landlocked Sahelian countries will struggle to create the economies of scale needed for rapid economic development. Moreover, they lack the capital and technical capacity to offer a viable alternative integration model.
Mahama and Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye have made strides in bridging the divide between ECOWAS and the AES. But reports suggest that Togo and Benin may join the emerging bloc, potentially inflaming an already volatile regional landscape. Encouragingly, ECOWAS and the AES have agreed to maintain the free movement of people, goods, and services across their shared borders.
While ECOWAS has left the door open for the return of its three prodigal members, its 50th anniversary is a reminder of Adedeji’s prescient warning: “In the final analysis, it is politics and not economics that will ultimately determine the fate of regional integration arrangements.”
Adekeye Adebajo