When I clock 90, if I had a choice in the matter, I’ll like to be like General Yakubu Dan-Yumma “Jack” Gowon – in good health, full of cheer and with my better half whispering sweet nothings into my ear as she relishes the distinguished audience consisting of Their Excellences, Highnesses, Lords, Eminences and other movers and shakers of society, temporal and spiritual.

It is not given to many people to be able to cast a happy glance at an illustrious life lived over nine decades and still bask in the adulation of a grateful society. At 90, General Gowon seems to still be in the middle of the Nigerian story despite his best efforts to be anonymous. A man of destiny, he found himself positioned at crucial junctions in Nigeria’s national life. Weighty responsibilities were cast on his shoulders at the age of 33 when his colleagues entrusted the leadership of the country onto him.

Many of us remember General Gowon fondly as that youthful military officer with a genial smile who led Nigeria through three harrowing years of a civil war. His “no victor, no vanquished” speech at the war’s end to promote healing and reconciliation is a classic in social reintegration and wound healing. The Nigerian Civil War may have been listed as one of the deadliest in modern history, but those on the ‘federal side’ insist that Gowon’s leadership saved the country. Had the leadership fallen into different hands, perhaps the story of the war might have been different in terms of sheer brutality and casualty figures. But General Gowon was a humanist in the middle of a human tragedy. He made it clear that his mission was to keep Nigeria united, not to extirpate the people of the Eastern Region. That position brought him in direct collision with some of his feisty war commanders. That story was told by the commanders themselves after the war.

To cap his humanist disposition, Gowon’s post-war programme encompassing the 3Rs – Reconciliation, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction – was a lesson in re-integration and fence mending. He holds the distinction of having served for the longest continuous period as military head of state of Nigeria, ruling for almost nine years.

Since his return to the country after a long sojourn abroad during which he bagged a PhD in Political Science, he has shown himself to be essentially a man of peace. His Yakubu Gowon Foundation has been involved in human development interventions while his “Nigeria Prays” initiative is a non-governmental and interdenominational prayer organisation. The former head of state has stayed away from partisan politics and is therefore generally seen as a father to all.

The other day in Abuja, the General was all smiles as the créme de la créme of society gathered to honour him on his 90th birthday. Ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo who was one of the war commanders during the civil war acknowledged his boss’s humanist posture and revealed that the story of Nigeria might have been more tragic with a less compassionate man at the helm.

Ex-President Goodluck Jonathan said he, too, could only marvel at the wonders of God because he was in primary 5 when General Gowon became head of state. As President when he presided over meetings of the Council of State, (incorporating ex-presidents, heads of state, vice-presidents or their equivalents during military rule, ex-chief justices of the federation, ex-Senate presidents, et al.et al.) he said he usually marvelled whenever he looked at General Gowon. Fate had brought two men of destiny together: A one-time primary 5 pupil was presiding over a meeting where his former military head of state was but an ordinary member!

However, the greatest gift anyone could give General Gowon on his 90th birthday was crafted in prose by Dr. Akinwumi A. Adesina, president of the African Development Bank (AfDB). At the birthday lecture titled: “Building a Global Nigeria”, Dr. Adesina charted the course that could steer Nigeria away from underachievement, underdevelopment and perpetual poverty. Only an intellectual discourse of such gravitas could have done justice to the momentousness of General Gowon’s 90th birthday. Adesina, Nigeria’s former minister of agriculture, now generally acknowledged as Africa’s Optimist-In-Chief, dug deep to unearth the compass Nigeria requires to fulfil its destiny as a global player. There can be no substitute for the full text. Meanwhile here are Excerpts:

Historic Duty

“When the Gulf region was to develop, it took Saudi Arabia to set the pace…. For Africa to develop, it needs Nigeria to develop faster.

Food Security

“To ensure food security, the federal government in conjunction with state governments, should return to the highly successful Growth Enhancement Scheme and the electronic-wallet scheme that was put in place when I was minister of agriculture….

Transforming Ports

“Recently the Financial Times reported that congestion at the port in Lagos has become so bad that it could cost more than $4,000 to truck a container 20 kilometres inland – almost as much as it costs to ship the very same container 12,000 nautical miles from China…

Japa Syndrome

“The rate and speed at which Nigerians are leaving the country – the so-called “Japa” syndrome risks undermining Nigeria’s drive for economic rejuvenation and positioning for global dominance. Nigeria’s best talents including doctors, nurses, lawyers, engineers, architects, computer programmers, artists and cultural entrepreneurs, sports athletes, and even bankers, are voting with their feet and leaving Nigeria in droves due to economic hardships, high unemployment, a corrosive rate of inflation that daily eats away at the value of their assets, insecurity ….

“PwC estimates that the exodus of Nigeria’s talents will lead to a loss of close to $5 billion annually. Yet, this is happening against the backdrop of a rapid global growth in Artificial Intelligence that holds enormous opportunities for shaping and transforming the world economy. In a recent analysis, PwC estimated that Artificial Intelligence will add $116 trillion to the global economy by 2030 and $316 billion annually to the economies of just four African countries – Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Ghana by 2030. Nigeria is well poised to take advantage of this opportunity, with the nation being one of the leaders in the fintech industry, and companies such as Flutterwave, Palm Pay, MTN Mobile Money, Piggyest ranking among the top 250 Fintech companies globally. Nigeria also has five of the top seven Unicorn Fintech companies in Africa, including Interswitch, Flutterwave, OPay and Andela, demonstrating the ingenuity and entrepreneurial capacity of Nigerians to lead, innovate and dominate the competitive Fintech industry. That is why the African Development Bank, along with partners, is investing $614 million in the i-DICE programme in Nigeria. This is a bold initiative designed to develop digital and creative enterprises, which will help add $6 billion to Nigeria’s GDP and create 6.4 million jobs….

“…We must become a Global Nigeria, brimming with talent, skills and entrepreneurship capacity that is powered by clear, strong, consistent, and sustainable government policies to become globally competitive, and to retain our young talents, if we are to drive growth and competitiveness globally. A Global Nigeria will turn “Japa” (“we are leaving”) into “Ja Pada” (we are going back)! To get there, I have some good news! I am delighted to announce that three days ago the African Development Bank’s Board of Directors approved $100 million for the establishment of the Youth Entrepreneurship Investment Bank of Nigeria….”

Let’s Go On With One Nigeria. Happy Birthday, General Gowon!

Breaking News: The World Bank has endorsed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic policy, suggesting that Nigeria must maintain its current reforms for the next 10 to 15 years in order to be able to transform its economy. Dr. Indermit Gill, the chief economist and senior vice-president of the World Bank Group, said and I quote: “If these reforms are sustained, Nigeria will transform its economy and become an engine of growth in sub-Saharan Africa. It is very difficult to implement such reforms, but the rewards are massive.” He was speaking in Abuja at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit with the theme: “Collaborative Action for Growth, Competitiveness, and Stability.”

Me: Thank you very much, Dr. Gill, but how many Nigerians will still be alive in the long run at this rate? With the massively falling naira, growing foodflation, explosive fuel costs, and shocking electricity tariffs, how many Nigerians will make it to the Promised Land? Nigerians have been experiencing the pains of various economic reforms for decades but it has been eons since they have had to endure this rate of price increases all coming within one year. As they are struggling to process one development, another one comes. They are asking: when will there be a respite? Petrol price alone has jumped from roughly N185/litre to around N1,000. This was previously unthinkable.

When President Olusegun Obasanjo was about to be inaugurated in 1999, Channels TV did a vox-pop of people on the streets, asking them their expectations of the new government. “I want Obasanjo to bring the economy down,” one market woman yelled into the microphone. Don’t laugh. As far as she was concerned, the “economy” means prices of goods and services. You know everything about the macro-economic and micro-economic theories, GDP, M1, M2, M3, balance of payments, capital flows and fiscal consolidation — but the market woman knows something about the price of garri theory. No matter the imperative of reform, therefore, there is a human element that cannot be ignored.

Economic reforms are mostly presented as a technical activity. You want to attract foreign investments? Remove the artificial peg of the naira, lift barriers to free trade and don’t place a lid on capital repatriation. You want more funds for education, healthcare and to build critical infrastructure? Get rid of subsidies. You want more revenue? Increase your tax/GDP ratio — your rates are too low and enforcement too weak. You want to curb inflation? Reduce money supply by raising interest rates. On paper, these policies are no-brainers. There is just one problem: at the receiving end are human beings — and the poorest of them are always disproportionately affected.

Across the country today, Nigerians are groaning over the impact of the reform being embarked upon by Tinubu, who has been nicknamed “T-Pain”. The reform has seen to the total or partial removal of three subsidies: petrol, FX and electricity. The “technical” results are what the World Bank is celebrating: debt service as percentage of revenue is falling, meaning there will be more money to fund the budget; FX reserves are growing, meaning we can now meet our international trading obligations better than before; and federation account is getting fatter partly because of the removal of the implicit FX subsidy. But here is the ultimate test: what is the “is equal to” on the price of garri?

On the upside, the removal of petrol subsidy will end the scam that has been enriching a few. We were to spend about N5.4 trillion on subsidy in 2024, having already doled out N4.2 trillion from January to July. No such claims can be made again and there should, thus, be more money going into the treasury. On the downside, though, petrol price has been rising and making life miserable for Nigerians. It is complicated by the fact that we are not used to buying petrol at a market-determined price, so it is a culture shock. When prices were increased in the past, they usually stayed on the same spot for years no matter the ex-depot cost. This brought some stability to consumer prices.

Until recently, we were importing petrol at N1,200/litre and selling at N600. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd started owing suppliers and was, in no time, struggling to keep importing. Word went round that Dangote Refinery, being home-based, would soon start selling petrol for N200, but that was not to be. After all, the refinery also has to buy crude at the market price (whether in naira or dollars) — like any other refinery — before it can produce petrol. We have now entered an era where petrol, like diesel, will be priced like any other commodity as it is done in most countries around the world. The new order, unfortunately, means more pains for Nigerians.

Meanwhile, the removal of FX subsidy has brought hardship — in fact, it is the root of the biggest sufferings Nigerians have had to bear, including the hike in fuel prices and electricity tariffs. FX is the baseline for virtually everything in Nigeria, directly and indirectly. The official exchange rate was around N460/$ when Tinubu became president. It is now about N1,600/$. In the parallel market, it was N750/$ and now N1,700. We held on to the artificial/official peg for so long that the gap kept widening. Only those with “long legs” could buy FX at the official rate. The most pronounced consequences were the diversion of FX into parallel market and the backlog of unmet demands.

By allowing the naira to depreciate, Tinubu can claim to have achieved a few things. One, the incentive for arbitrage — buying at official rate and selling in the parallel market — has reduced. Some of our celebrated billionaires were milking the country dry through arbitrage: getting FX from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) at N460/$ via fake transactions and roundtripping to sell at N750/$ in the parallel market. The margin was mad. The margin is thin now, making arbitrage less attractive. Two, Tinubu can also say that our dollar reserves are growing again, partly because FX inflow is now going through official sources. Now we are settling our FX obligations faster, compared to the past.

But the downside is devastating. We import most of the essential things we consume in Nigeria, including fuels, clothing, medication and intermediate goods. Any slight upward adjustment in the exchange rate will cause a ripple effect on general prices. In fact, it was when the exchange rate went gaga that it finally dawned on me that it is far more impactful on the poor than the price of petrol. Actually, the fuel prices are largely dependent on the exchange rate. In turn, the cost of transportation is determined by fuel prices. And the pricing of foodstuff, particularly in the southern part of Nigeria, is largely affected by transportation cost. It is like everything happened to us at once.

Tinubu also partially removed electricity subsidy. According to reports, the subsidy bill was estimated at N2 trillion for 2024. But through the creation of the “Band A” nomenclature and the shifting of most of the subsidy burden there, Tinubu cut the bill by half. The general economic argument is that where there is no subsidy, there is no subsidy scam. Agreed. But the impact has been equally devastating. By the time the tripled tariff landed on businesses and schools (tertiary institutions in particular), it was all tears. In sum, the removal of the three subsidies — despite all the highlighted benefits — has taken the cost of living skywards and eroded the purchasing power of Nigerians.

Where do I stand? To be sure, I am not against reform. The economic hardship is global. Our economy was racing towards the abyss. We were spending most of our revenue on servicing debts, printing money to pay salaries and failing to meet our FX obligations. We were living on borrowed time. We were getting to a stage when our letters of credit would no longer be honoured — meaning we would not be able to import basic stuffs again. It has happened before: in 1983, the Shehu Shagari administration had to set up a task force to import rice. In 1984, we were queueing to buy “essential commodities” as they were not available in the open market because of FX scarcity.

In one word, we did not have many options when Tinubu came on board. In fact, the reform should have started as far back as 2014. We did not want Nigerians to suffer, so we delayed and dilly-dallied. We started borrowing and also rationing FX to paper over the cracks. Some of the measures actually held down consumer prices for a while and I was partially in support because I believe reform has to be paced. But when the problems became overwhelming, we delayed action on many fronts. It is like a man with kidney failure dilly-dallying on dialysis until he now has to do a transplant. Nigeria is now undergoing a transplant because of its failure to do the painful but necessary dialysis for years.

Having said that, however, I still do not have nice words for the Tinubu administration. For one, it is clear that the reform was poorly conceived and harshly implemented. You can devalue the naira, yes, but no country floats its currency recklessly as we did. It was a kamikaze. Above all, the measures to cushion the pains are mostly audio. Ages ago, the Tinubu administration announced a planned suspension of tariffs on food items. Maybe it will start implementation this morning. You can see the unseriousness. No sense of urgency. Yet, the government was eager to award the N15 trillion Lagos-Calabar road contract — of all the problems in Nigeria. Construction started instantly. Priorities.

That, in a nutshell, is why reform is difficult to sell to Nigerians. The people are wondering: are we all in this thing together? There is nothing to show that the message of sacrifice is for all. Leadership is best delivered by example. It is more urgent to buy a presidential jet than to reduce tariffs on food items and medication that will benefit millions of Nigerians. How many people really benefit from all these palliatives? All said, it would be more disastrous to reverse the reform. The task is how to keep it on track and minimise the pains. I have said this again and again: Nigerians are not impossible to lead. They want to see that their leaders really and truly care — not just in words but also in deed.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

KILLING EFCC

There is a big campaign to castrate the EFCC by limiting its powers to only federal officials. Sixteen states are at the Supreme Court seeking a definitive pronouncement on the powers of the EFCC. I am not a lawyer (at least, not yet), but my sense is that the EFCC deals with financial crimes that go through the banking system. Item No. 6 on the exclusive legislative list in the 1999 Constitution places “banks and banking” under federal jurisdiction. Therefore, the best way governors can plunder our resources and escape the EFCC is to avoid passing their loot through the financial system. Alternatively, they can get the lawmakers to delete Item 6 from the exclusive list. Simple.

TANKER TRAGEDY

Over 100 people were burnt to death in an explosion in Majia, Jigawa state, on Tuesday night when a petrol-laden tanker had an accident. Most of the victims were reportedly scooping petrol when the explosion occurred. It happens all the time. The most memorable for me was the 1998 Jesse pipeline disaster in Delta state — over 1,000 were burnt to death. There have been similar incidents in Cross River and Lagos states. We all know the dangers, but when you are so poor, your sense of adventure can be reckless. You are only thinking of the gain of “free petrol” if you succeed in scooping it. We obviously need to take tanker safety seriously and citizen education even more seriously. Horrific.

LAWLESS LIBYA

Ahead of the now-postponed Afcon qualifier in Libya, the Super Eagles of Nigeria were treated shabbily by their petulantly hostile hosts. Their flight was diverted to a distant airport — where they were held hostage without water, food or internet access for 15 hours. However, the Libyans said we meted out a similar treatment to them a few days earlier when they played in Uyo, Akwa Ibom state. In other words, this was their revenge. In football, retaliation is a straight red card. It contradicts their claim that the flight was not diverted deliberately. Nigeria has denied the allegations. Why didn’t the Libyans report the Uyo “maltreatment” to CAF? That would have been far more civil. Self-help.

NO COMMENT

The consultative assembly of the Southeast Electricity Consumers Association (SEECA) says residents in the geo-political zone will go on an “indefinite strike” from November 1 over a plan to move customers to Band A where electricity tariffs are the highest. Before you laugh, they have a point: faulty infrastructure is yet to be fixed and the Enugu Electricity Distribution Company (EEDC) has not complied with an order by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) to refund N11.86 billion to consumers overbilled between January and September 2023. But what will a strike look like if EEDC does not stop supply? Switch off the lights? Resort to using diesel generators? Wonderful.

Last week, the World Bank made three key and coordinated interventions about the economic reforms of the current administration. On Monday, the Bank’s chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics, Dr Indermit Gill, gave a special remark at the annual summit of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG); on Wednesday, the same Dr Gill had an opinion piece in the highly-regarded Financial Times; and on Thursday, the World Bank Group launched its latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU).

Well-synchronised, the three interventions echoed the same message: that the Tinubu economic reforms are necessary, that the reforms are beginning to yield positive results, but the reforms need to be sustained and supported to deliver the desired gains. The World Bank came across as offering a ringing and an unqualified endorsement of not just the reforms but also of the way they are being executed. Without a doubt, the Tinubu administration would crave and celebrate such a rosy affirmation. But most Nigerians, going through the worst cost-of-living crisis in recent memory, would have none of it.

I listened to the various speakers at the launch of the NDU (and it was a relief that Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State was invited to provide some ground-level, even if somewhat political, reality check). Also, I have read the speech and the Op-Ed by Dr Gill and gone through the NDU report. I think World Bank’s position is more nuanced than it is coming across in the press and on social media.

However, the World Bank cannot be absolved of the charge of underplaying the mistakes in reform implementation, of over-simplifying the expanding opposition to the reforms and of minimising the danger of not acting quickly and concretely to reduce the concentrated pain spreading across the land. It can be argued that some of these things are not for the World Bank to say. But there is always a risk in not applying necessary caveats and in not reading the room well at a time when most citizens are struggling to make ends meet and there seems to be no reasonable timeframe for the stress to moderate.

In the three interventions, the Bank made a compelling case for the removal of petrol and foreign exchange subsidies. In 2022, the Bank stated, Nigeria lost $15 billion or 5% of GDP to explicit and implicit (and regressive) subsidies on petrol and forex and unwittingly imposed a tax on non-oil exports. This created a fiscal mess and dampened economic growth, and the country was just inches away from a cliff.

The two signature reforms of the Tinubu administration, the Bank submitted, have stemmed the bleeding and some vital signs of recovery are becoming noticeable. The positive signs include the following: fiscal deficit shrank from 6.2% of GDP in H1-2023 to 4.4% of GDP in H1-2024; federation revenues increased from 5.5% of GDP in H1-2023 to 8.7% of GDP in H1-2024; gross foreign reserves rose from $32.9 billion at the end of 2023 to $38.5 billion in early October 2024; arbitrage-inducing premium on multiple foreign exchange rates has been eliminated by ‘market determined’ unification of rates and forex turnover has doubled; debt service as a portion of revenue is projected to fall to 60% by end of 2024 compared to 100% in 2022 etc., etc.

All this is well and good, and Nigeria could use such cheery assessment. We will revert shortly on how much value an average Nigerian puts in such macro-level datapoints. Crucially, the Bank acknowledged the disruption and hardship brought by the reforms, especially in terms of higher energy costs and prices of other goods and services, and the implication for driving more Nigerians into poverty.

In the three interventions, the overarching message from the World Bank is that the country should not abandon the reforms. “Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 15 years to transform its economy and become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” said Dr Gill at the NESG summit. “This is the lesson from the past 40 years, as well as from the experience of countries as diverse as India, Poland, South Korea and Norway. Nigeria’s reforms from 2003 through 2007 were exactly what was needed—but they were not sustained.”

The Bank came up with a list of things that should be done to deepen the reforms and as part of staying the course. The prescriptions revolve around creating meaningful jobs for Nigerians, with special emphasis on women and youth. The suggestions are in four broad areas: reducing trade barriers; improving infrastructure; improving business environment; and increasing support to households and businesses. 

I welcome the World Bank for being a strong advocate for reforms in Nigeria. I have written a number of times about how some of these institutions and countries are not doing enough to provide adequate support to Nigeria after the country took on board most of the difficult reforms that they routinely recommend. These institutions and countries need to put their money where their mouth is. What Nigeria needs now, more than anything else, is massive forex supply that the smaller and regular inflows from trade and investment can build on and sustain to ensure a fair value for the Naira and to provide relief to Nigerians across the board. We will also return to this shortly.

The World Bank might not have all the money, but it is a good institution to have in your corner. So, it goes a long way if the Bank is expressing so much confidence in and speaking up for ongoing reforms in Nigeria. But I have a few points of departure.

The first is about how you measure success. To be sure, the macro-level data shared by the World Bank is important. They show that difficult reforms can yield results, and that in this instance, the government is getting a better handle of its finances. But the statistics on external reserves, fiscal deficit, forex rate unification etc., means absolutely nothing to those who have had to endure the doubling, tripling and even quintupling of prices of basic items in the last year or so, and who have no idea of how soon this hardship will moderate or end. So, telling them the reform is yielding fruits with some cold data is asking them to deny the evidence of their eyes and the harsh reality of their lived experience. And urging their government to press on, without making adjustments, is likely to come off as insensitive. It should be understandable that the mass of Nigerians struggling to pay for food and medication will not measure success of reforms with some cold data on reserves and revenues.

My second issue is with the assumption that everyone criticising the reforms wants reversal or is a member of the elite that benefited from the old order. It is quite unfortunate that the World Bank will make this claim in its NDU: “With so many constituencies having benefited from the previous approach, especially the elite, there has been intense political pressure to regress to the previous policies, despite their unsustainable cost and the fact that they unfairly benefited mainly a lucky few at the expense of ordinary Nigerians.”

This is a reductionist and an unhelpful view. Reform design and implementation are a human enterprise. They can’t be perfect. Mistakes will be made. Some assumptions will not be met. Adjustments will be necessary in some instances. And truth be told, some fundamental mistakes have been made in implementing the twin reforms, especially in terms of strategic planning, sequencing and approach, provisioning for the vulnerable and picking up speed in making reliefs available to the needy.

I have said this repeatedly: it is possible to do the right thing in the wrong way or in the wrong order. Yes, there are those opposed to the reforms from the beginning and till now. There are also those who are against the reforms for ideological and political reasons. But there are also those who want the reforms to be more thoughtfully designed and better implemented. Lumping everyone together or dismissing those who want improvement to the reforms is not very useful, and not the kind of tendency the World Bank should be encouraging.

My third issue is that most of the options laid out by the Bank and the government will not address the immediate pain points of most Nigerians. Cash transfer is necessary, but how far can N75,000 shared in three tranches go for the poorest households (even when disbursed on time, which is not the case here)? Free or subsidised bags of rice and other grains can be helpful but how many people will such reach and for how long? More than doubling the minimum wage is a great idea, but this applies to largely the few who work in the formal sector or 7.3% of those in our labour force. Meanwhile, the hardship brought by the reform is widespread.  

The proposals about creating jobs, improving infrastructure and trade etc will provide a structural foundation for sustainable growth but they will not provide immediate relief to the growing number of Nigerians whose standard of living is being shredded daily by soaring costs of food and other essential items. With food inflation at 37.77% (Sokoto State is 50.47%), we should all be worried stiff. Meanwhile, suspension of taxes on some food items was announced with fanfare in July but discussion is still ongoing on implementation. That tells you all you need to know about the seriousness the government attaches to some issues.

My last point is about the song and dance being made of the unification of the exchange rate and how that ties to the central challenge of the moment. In his NESG speech, Dr Gill said that when the forex reform started in June 2023, the official exchange rate was N465/$1 while the parallel market rate was N700/$1, a spread of N235 on each dollar. Sixteen months into the forex reform, the rates have unified at around N1600/$1. Is that not an incredible feat? We have achieved unification, but at what cost?

Both the World Bank and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are crowing about how this major achievement that has eliminated arbitrage, has led to increase in dollar-denominated government revenues, and in investment flows, remittances and external reserves, and made Nigerian exports more competitive. Missing here is a thought for the Nigerians who do not earn dollars, who clearly constitute more than 90% of our population and are impacted in different ways by the massive loss in the value of the national currency.

But by all accounts, Naira has moved from being overvalued to being undervalued. Figure 1.8 in the NDU euphemistically says the real exchange rate has staged a large adjustment. Some REER calculation puts Naira at its lowest real value since 1999. This large adjustment arose from the disorderly devaluation of the Naira through a free float without a guarantee of adequate forex supply. The argument is not about retaining the forex subsidy but about how to devalue based on your context as a country. Also, a free float is not the only way to have a market-determined, competitive exchange rate. 

The World Bank, the CBN and even the Finance Ministry wax poetic about how the current ‘competitive’ value of the Naira should incentivise exports. But we all need to bear in mind that there will always be a time-lag for significant uptick in the quantity and quality of exports. Also, the benefits of increase in the Naira value of exports will not be as widespread as the immediate pains of an undervalued currency in a country that still imports a lot of final and intermediate goods. Clearly, the government is banking more revenue from exchange gains (which is now a major and regular FAAC item). Ordinarily, increased government revenues should translate to improved spending on the priorities of the people, but we know how that goes. Government’s spending priorities in the last 17 months tell us all we need to know.

We cannot normalise dollar at N1600 or afford further undervaluation under the convenient excuse that it is market determined especially when there is a consensus that the currency is undervalued. Ensuring that the Naira finds its fair value should be the priority of the government today because the price of most things, including that of locally refined petrol, is linked to the value of the Naira. Getting Naira to its fair value, and not those tokenistic handouts or those medium-term prescriptions, is what will provide immediate relief across the board.

It is also what will provide the best insurance for the difficult reforms and against social upheaval. Of course, we need to stay the course, as policy reversal has a heavy cost. But we also need to be practical and know that the human capacity to bear pain is not infinite. Reformers must constantly pay attention to the pulse of the operating environment, and make tactical adjustments where necessary. 

Dr. Reuben Abati’s “Remembering Mrs. Remi Oyo”, which I read online on Oct. 1, 2024, brought back a floodgate of memories regarding Mrs. Oluremi Oyo who passed to glory 10 years ago and whose remembrance her family held recently in Lagos. Remi and I were professional colleagues. Her easy-going husband, Mr. Vincent Oyo, had a big office space at the Ikeja Shopping Plaza at the time I, too, came in to occupy my own little corner there. Remi would drop in once in a while and each time we ran into each other on the corridors, we would gist.

I remember those days when she was President Olusegun Obasanjo’s spokesperson and the former president hiked fuel price again and again. Between June 1, 2000 and May 27, 2007, Obasanjo hiked pump price fuel at least seven times, bringing it from the N20 per litre he met on ground to a whopping N75 per litre on May 27, 2007, a few days before he left office! That was his parting gift for Nigerians, a “thank you” for their generosity in making him one military Head of State and two civilian presidents. Maybe it was their punishment for truncating his controversial third term agenda!

Those also were the days when fire-spitting Adams Oshiomhole was the Nigeria Labour Congress president. Oshiomhole led the battle against Obasanjo’s incessant fuel price hike; usually, the strikes were short-lived - like those of the current NLC president, Joe Ajaero. The government’s usual bait was to throw some bones at NLC’s dog in the form of a handful of so-called mass transit buses and other “tiny, tiny concessions”, to quote Britain’s “Iron Lady” Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. The last authentic leader of the NLC was Ali Chiroma.

On one of such occasions, Remi came to the plaza and our paths crossed. She said, “Bola, all the things our people (the media) are writing about these strikes are not the truth”. "Iro ni Adams n pa", she would add. Adams telling lies and merely deceiving the people? That was difficult to believe in those days. But she then revealed a lot about the shenanigans of Labour - how they led strike actions in the day but hob-nobbed with Obasanjo at night. After such meetings, Obasanjo would gloat: “Adams, omo mi ni!”, meaning, “Adams is my son!” But how mistaken! According to Remi, it took many back-stabbing before Obasanjo learnt a lesson!

Space constraints will not let me print all that Reuben said about Remi. Most times that our paths crossed, I usually saluted Reuben with the title of Mongo Beti’s novel “Remember Ruben”! Enjoy this delectable writer! When we return, we shall, as usual, make some closing remarks:        

“Ten years ago, Mrs. Oyo left this earthly prison house and transited to the great beyond, to tranquil Heaven at the relatively young age of 61. Thomas Camspbell says, and he is right, that ‘to live in the heart of those we love is not to die’. Mrs. Oyo lives on, her memory endures, and her example stands out in terms of her great accomplishments. She was a journalist of the first rank. She did not want to be identified as a female journalist but as a pressman, and, indeed, a pressman she was, out there in the forefront of action, inspiring younger journalists both male and female in the process. In one of those ironies of life that no one can explain, she was born in the month of October. She died also in the same month, less than two weeks to her 62nd birthday... But hers was a life of impact, love and influence.

“She studied Mass Communication at the University of Lagos and obtained a Master’s degree in International Relations from the University of Kent. Journalism was her career and in this she excelled. She started as a reporter with the Nigerian Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) in 1973. The story out there is that she met her husband, Mr. Vincent Oyo, while working in radio and the two Oyos would in later life carve a niche for themselves in both journalism and marketing communications. Mrs. Oyo left the NBC to join the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in 1981 and rose to become the Principal Editor of NAN. She later joined the Inter Press Service (IPS) and again rose to become the Nigerian Bureau Chief and, later, the West African Bureau Chief. It was around this time that our paths crossed.

“Auntie, as we fondly called her, had become very active in the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE). Under Mr. Biodun Oduwole, NGE president, 1992 – 1994, Mrs. Oyo was a member of the standing committee but she was very influential, known by younger journalists as “Mama awon Boys” because of her generosity. The Oduwole team presided over one of the golden moments of the Guild…Even before his emergence as president, Mr. Oduwole had been friends with some of us who were members of the OSU Collective... In those days, in the early 90s, members of the OSU Collective were prolific on the pages of newspapers, generating debates and contributing to public affairs issues of the day. Three of us: Wale Olaitan, Sina Kawonise and I were close to Mr. Oduwole who took it upon himself to encourage these brilliant young lecturers from Ogun State University, as it then was... Like all young men, we thought we could change the world with our pens and lyrical prose. It was through Egbon, as we called Mr. Oduwole, that we got to know Mrs. Oyo, and she just took to us as her aburos.

“By 1994, I had left Ogun State University to join the Guardian Newspapers as a member of the Editorial Board. I recall that in September that year, I had to travel to Egypt to attend the International Conference on Population and Development (5 -13 September 1994) under the auspices of the National Council on Population and Environmental Activities, an NGO led by Prince Julius Adelusi-Adeluyi... When we arrived in Egypt and I went to the press centre, there was Mrs. Remi Oyo manning the IPS desk. I saw her at work writing stories, casting headlines, conducting interviews. She enjoyed what she did… I casually mentioned to Auntie that I was planning to get married. She promptly asked me what I would need. I told her I brought some money to buy wedding rings. One late afternoon, she left her desk and took me somewhere inside Cairo where she said we would get original gold. When we finished buying the gold rings, she asked me to follow her again to another store. She then asked me to look for any shoe that I felt comfortable with. She paid for the pair of shoes and said ‘that is the shoe I want you to wear on your wedding day; from me to you!’

“I would later visit Auntie at her office at the National Theatre where she had become the head of IPS. In those days, the National Theatre (now Wole Soyinka Centre for Culture and the Arts) was the rendezvous for artists. We went there to watch films, stage plays or simply congregate at a place called Abe Igi to socialize and enjoy an assortment of delicacies. Auntie’s office was just down the road from Abe Igi... It was not difficult to see that although she was head of IPS, she had a great rapport with the people in NAN who shared the same premises. She moved from NAN to IPS, but she had friends on both sides. She was a doyenne of wire service journalism.

“In 1998, Mrs. Oyo showed interest in the Presidency of the Nigerian Guild of Editors... We the boys were, like, “Auntie Must Win!”. In short, all the boys championed her campaign. She eventually emerged as the president and ended up serving for five years (1998 – 2003). She lifted the profile of the office and was very good at getting support for the media from authority figures. She was, for record purposes, the first woman to serve as president of the Nigerian Guild of Editors since 1961 when Alhaji Lateef Jakande was its pioneer president. Mrs. Oyo performed so excellently it can be said of her legacy that she inspired other women within the profession to take a keen interest in the affairs of both the NGE and the Nigerian Union of Journalists (NUJ). In the West, East and the North, women began to occupy key positions in the media unions…

“Mrs. Oyo’s distinction did not go unnoticed. In 2003, she was appointed Senior Special Assistant (Media and Publicity) by President Olusegun Obasanjo. Again, she served meritoriously in that position, earning her the national honours of Officer of the Order of Niger (OON) in 2006. When President Yar’Adua assumed office in 2007, Mrs. Oyo was shortly after named the Managing Director of the News Agency of Nigeria. It was a kind of homecoming for her, returning to her former base and reuniting with old colleagues…

“I recall vividly her advice to me when President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan appointed me as his Special Adviser – Media and Publicity in 2011. She said: “Reuben, my advice to you will be basically three things. Number one, the person you need most on this job is the President, the man who gave you the job. If you have him on your side, you are good. You will survive. This is a very tough job. The politics is heavy. She then went on to tell me about how many people would be interested in the office because of the glamour of being the spokesperson for the president. She mentioned names of persons who would go behind her to President Obasanjo just to malign her…

“No. 2, she said, ‘be very careful with our colleagues; they are the biggest threat to anyone in this office. They will bad-mouth you. They will try to pull you down. They will claim that they know how to do the job better than you. They will envy you and try to undermine you… Just hold on to your principal. Once the president believes you are doing a good job, there is nothing anybody can do to you…  

“She was right on every score! One of the first things I experienced was what became known in the Villa at the time as “The Gap Theory”. It was explained to me by a gentleman called Akachukwu Sullivan Nwakpo as follows: the Villa is a dog-eat-dog space. You have to man your space and guard it jealously. If you are off guard for a minute, someone would see that as an opportunity and try to do your job for you. He advised me to be vigilant and keep out interlopers.

“Media work was actually something everyone thought they could do, including those who could not write a successful paragraph in the English language... Our colleagues in the media, as Mrs. Oyo predicted, were not very kind either. They used to go behind to seek (an) audience with President Jonathan…”

I think we should end it there! Reuben’s sweeping generalisation is not only unkind and uncharitable, it is also not the truth and it irks me. He should simply have said “some” and not tar everyone with the same brush of unprofessional conduct, treachery and back-stabbing. He would also have done well to mention names like he said Remi did in her own characteristic candour! I, for one, never took notice Reuben was in the Villa until he left! Finding his way back into the profession, he called on me for help which, after teasing him, I rendered free of charge, as they say! I, therefore, couldn’t have been one of his “colleagues in the media… who used to go behind to seek (an) audience with President Jonathan..” In this I am also certain that I speak for many of our colleagues who are in the silent majority.

Light perpetual, continually grant Oluremi Oyo, O Lord!

 Former Editor of PUNCH newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-chief, BOLAWOLE was also the Managing Director/ Editor-in-chief of The WESTERNER newsmagazine. He writes the ON THE LORD'S DAY column in the Sunday TRIBUNE and TREASURES column in NEW TELEGRAPH newspaper on Wednesdays. He is also a public affairs analyst on radio and television.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: HYGINUS OMEJE
(Asst. Corps Marshal Operations, FRSC)

Topic: JIGAWA FUEL TANKER EXPLOSION AND PUBLIC SAFETY

Date: 19th October, 2024
                         
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I am a proud Nigerian and a proud African. I am also a philanthropist and entrepreneur—and I have seen firsthand that to effectively tackle climate change within the African context, from Egypt to Nigeria to South Africa, we must look to the people it impacts.

Too often our businesses have not created value on our continent or traded commodities for short-term profit, not long-term investment. Fostering entrepreneurship, sustaining young entrepreneurs, who will grow businesses and create sustainable employment, is a crucial pathway to achieving long-term climate solutions.

In 2010, my wife and I had an idea. Concerned with escalating poverty, we founded the Tony Elumelu Foundation (TEF) and committed $100 million to identify, mentor, and fund young African entrepreneurs—young people with brilliant ideas and the drive to tackle the continent’s most pressing challenges. They lacked capital, connections, and mentors. They lacked luck. We wanted to change that. It was a bold bet aimed at empowering Africa’s most vulnerable and populous demographic, encouraging them to create their own wealth, rather than relying on aid. And the bet paid off.

Since its inception, the foundation has empowered 20,000 entrepreneurs across 54 African countries, who have created 400,000 direct and indirect jobs and generated over $2.3 billion in revenue. We have provided access to business training to more than 1.5 million young people.

Given the scale of the task, we partner with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the European Union (EU), and other partners to deepen our reach and impact. We provide funding, mentorship, business training, and advocacy support to entrepreneurs—specifically, in fragile regions, conflict zones, and underserved communities.

Together, we address challenges like youth unemployment, poverty, and insurgency through entrepreneurship. In 2022, we partnered with UNICEF Generation Unlimited (GenU) and IKEA Foundation, to launch a Green Entrepreneurship Program that empowers youth whose businesses address the triple planetary crisis. Of the 20,000 young men and women entrepreneurs that TEF has empowered, more than 500 are directly or indirectly solving challenges related to climate change, and over a third (35%) working in the agricultural sector.

By empowering young people, we are establishing a dynamic engine that drives economic growth and development across the continent. These entrepreneurs also become vital pillars of support within their communities. They are not only creating essential jobs and income, but also uplifting families and breaking the cycle of poverty. And now, more than ever, is the time to bring a climate-lens to this entrepreneurship.

Africa is warming more quickly than the rest of the world. By 2030, an estimated 118 million Africans are projected to face drought, and rising sea levels threaten coastal regions, potentially displacing millions. Climate change is impeding access to basic necessities: water, power, food, and education. But these challenges also offer extraordinary opportunities for those with an entrepreneurial mindset to tackle climate change, while simultaneously creating significant economic value.

For instance, how can we enhance the sustainability of smallholder farmers, which comprise 80% of all farms in sub-Saharan Africa and employ 60% of the continent’s workforce? What strategies can be employed by African nations with vast forests—such as Gabon, Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, and Congo—to effectively leverage these critical carbon sinks?

To unlock the full potential of green solutions in Africa, we must nurture entrepreneurship—and this cannot be achieved by governments alone. We need to integrate government incentive schemes, with the opportunities presented by the private sector. It is imperative that we unite philanthropies, policymakers, and businesses. I refer to this movement as “Africapitalism”—a call for partnership led by the private sector, focused on fostering prosperity for all.

Global warming is not an inevitable fate. Entrepreneurs are inherently problem solvers; they possess the curiosity to explore opportunities and challenges, the creativity to devise innovative solutions, and the determination to transform obstacles into successes. Youth entrepreneurship can be a solution to averting the looming crisis of climate impact. It’s time to harness this power.

I would like to begin by referencing Edward Gibbon’s “The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.” While Gibbon identified several causes, including Christianity, the key takeaway is that, in his view, the fall of Rome was not due to a single event but rather a long, gradual process involving both internal and external factors over several centuries.

On the foundation of Christianity, specifically through Catholicism, Christ promised that the gates of hell would not prevail against the Church. Over the centuries, the Church has fought valiantly against external forces that sought to destroy Christianity. The irony, however, is that today, it faces destruction from within. The Church, being led by fallible human beings subject to the sins of Adam, has experienced significant challenges throughout its history, notably the Great Schism of 1054 and the Protestant Reformation of 1517. While some may argue that these challenges, resulting in a multiplicity of faiths, introduced healthy competition, from objective and historical perspective, such divisions have inflicted considerable harm on the body of Christ.

When I write about divisions in Christianity, it is often with a heavy heart. You may not fully grasp the depth of my feelings until you readUt Unum Sint” (“That They May Be One”). “Ut Unum Sint” focuses on the importance of Christian unity and ecumenism, reaffirming the Catholic Church’s commitment to dialogue with other Christian denominations in the pursuit of unity.

Today, the Church’s major challenge is Pentecostalism. Characterised by emotional appeals that leave its followers captive and unthinking, many Pentecostal groups resort to all manner of questionable practices to sustain their growth. One pastor in Warri was seen engaging in a spiritual duel with a “Haba” priest from Agulu. The “Haba” priest later admitted to a friend that he had been paid to stage the drama. Is this what Pentecostalism offers to the body of Christ?

Perhaps the most disturbing of these practices is the staging of so-called miracles. Even figures like the comedic Odumeje have claimed to raise the dead.

When pastors boast of drinking tea with God, controlling the weather, or causing roads to widen miraculously to allow them passage, they not only display early signs of delusion but also bring Christianity into ridicule. While they may attract the gullible masses, including some captains of industry, who unfortunately form the majority, they simultaneously provoke thoughtful individuals to question the very foundation of their faith. Such deception is one of the reasons many are now preaching a return to the roots, seeing nothing but lies in what these preachers offer.

They are busy reducing Christianity to an egregious call for tithes. Rather than boast of the souls and territories they have converted, as the orthodox churches do, they boast about their fat bank accounts, perquisites, and the number of private jets they own. They are even corrupting some in orthodox churches who now see founding ministries within their churches, devoid of established controls, as an open sesame to wealth and renown. This cannot be Christianity!

The current challenges facing Christianity, particularly with the rise of manipulative practices in Pentecostal circles, serve as a stark reminder of the need for discernment and authenticity in faith. The history of the Church is one of resilience, surviving schisms, reforms, and doctrinal challenges. Yet, the core of Christianity—its truth, love, and teachings—must remain uncompromised. True faith cannot be sustained on emotional manipulation or deceit; rather, it thrives on genuine spiritual growth, intellectual engagement, and a return to the authentic teachings of Christ. As Christians, we must guard against these distortions, ensuring that our beliefs remain rooted in truth and are not swayed by the allure of sensationalism.

And what happens? The deluded, always ready to engage anyone who questions their pastors, will undoubtedly come forward like mosquitoes, to buzz irritatingly in my ears. In the face of obvious truth, meant to salvage Christianity, all they will offer in defence is accusation of fanaticism, intolerance, jealousy, and other predictable catchphrases.

Our people say that the man holding the rope with which a goat is being taken to the market often gets blamed if the goat fetches a low price at the sales. Some would accuse him of walking the goat so fast while going to the market that it lost much weight. Others would murmur that he did not allow the goat to feed or drink any water while they were on their way to the market.

It would not matter to the grumblers at such moments that a goat cannot gain enough weight to attract a markedly high price in the market just because you stopped to feed it while on your way to the market. No one will also remember at such moments that a sensible person will not stop on the way to the market to feed his goat or chicken, because to do so would be to miss the opportunity to make a good early morning bargain, or even to make any sales at all.

Bringing the foregoing around to what I consider the predicament of the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) today, it must be said here that the man is not solely, or directly, responsible for the fate of the Naira today. He is no magician. Even if he is one, his magic can only work when fiscal and monetary policies find themselves backed up by improved national productivity. Thus magic, and the ability to perform miracles, won’t pass muster as viable tools for anyone who wants to be taken seriously in the banking industry. It is a job of records, of economic variables, of fluctuating indices and of policy-driven twists and turns.

Were we not all thoroughly alarmed when the Naira rose precipitously about a year ago? Were we not also excited when, inexplicably, it began to bounce back; and came as far as about 900 Naira to the US dollar? Many people cheered gleefully, even if somewhat apprehensively. And then, the national currency sneaked off when no one was looking (or were some people expecting it?) and headed downhill again.

Let us go back to a conversation that occurred on this page on February 10, this year, wherein it was said that the forces arrayed against Cardoso, his team and also the Naira include the following: “(1) A volatile economic and political environment, (2) Elite consumption patterns, (3) Overall low national productivity, (4) Limited public understanding of fiscal and monetary policy issues, (5) Incredibly high demand for the dollar and, very importantly, (6) The new-found use of the dollar as a major Store of Value, the way people used to buy houses under property speculation.”

In the above-mentioned piece, we went even further back to an earlier intervention of 15 November, 2021, titled “What the CBN Cannot Do”. The point made then, which is still so painfully relevant today, and which is partly responsible for the crises of the moment is this: “The CBN cannot do much about the value of the Naira, for as long as we produce very little to attract corresponding inflows, consume much that is not produced here and retain a monocultural economy”.

The point remains that only the diversification of the economy, redemption of our national road infrastructure, reversal of the current state of insecurity in the land, rescuing the power sector, making realistic and sustainable investments in education and health, among other critical interventions, can save the national currency, the national economy and the people. The decisions and interventions that would deliver all that cannot be tea party matters.

Without denying the impact of the floating of the Naira on our fortunes today, we must also frankly admit that the general insecurity and banditry of the last 15 years substantially undermined the nation’s massive investments in agriculture. With banditry laying waste massive farmlands, reducing farmers’ access to their farmlands and effectively reducing the overall availability of farm produce, only food scarcity would follow.

Added to the foregoing is the fact that large farming communities are displaced in many places. Thus, much of financial outflows into the agricultural sector in the last couple of years do not yield the expected returns. That is why it will take a while for the originally projected gains in terms of food availability, food security and forex earnings from food exports to materialize.

That is also why the conversation about diversification of the national economy, especially with agriculture in focus, must also simultaneously address insecurity and national social infrastructure. We must also note that investment in agriculture is not quite the same thing as the purchase of tractors and other agricultural equipment, no! Many states of the federation cheerfully mistake investments in health and education infrastructure for actual investments in “education” and “health services”. They do not consider that new buildings designated as health centres, new school buildings, new classroom blocks and massive stockpiling of teaching equipment are only the evidence of procurement contracts. Nothing more.

Such infrastructure, important as they are, cannot, on their own, give you health or educational services. You need doctors, teachers, etc., to make that happen. In other words, it takes capacitated human capital for development to take place. An investor who spends money setting up new baking ovens and launching them is not a baker. Bakeries need bakers who know about baking to produce and deliver edible bread.

When state governments and corporate Nigeria simply import furnishing materials for their new public and private facilities, they have no idea how much damage they are doing to the state resources, the national currency and the economy. And when misapplied funds are retired under the heading “investment in health” or “education and human capital development,” the people and Nigeria are swindled. But we are digressing again.

If today the value of the naira is not looking very impressive, it is not because someone’s “village people” have cast a spell on us all. If many big and small businesses have lost value and shut down, it is because of high replacement cost for goods sold out and their inability to obtain long-term facilities that would make sense in a Third World economy. If Cardoso cannot wave a magic wand to change the value of the Naira, it is not because he and his family are not buying from the same market as everyone else.

A weakened Naira means that the “replacement cost” for what you sold before the naira lost value will now cost you more if you wish to replace it. It also means that the same amount of money cannot buy you exactly the same quantity of goods you sold earlier and which you now wish to replace. So, your business shrinks and shrinks further. Whichever way you look at it, or whatever you decide to do, you really cannot get enough money to “replace” the same number of things you have sold. The result is reduced capacity utilization, job losses and much more; because your original business capital can only get you a fraction of what you have sold. You will then have plenty of redundant shop space, reduced workforce. It is as simple as that.

It was said here, back then: “A nation with a predominantly consumption-drive economy cannot suddenly catapult itself into the Neverland of foreign exchange El Dorado. You make money from what you produce and sell, or from what you can do and be paid for. You also buy with what you have earned from either goods or services. You get paid nothing when you produce nothing. You spend more than you earn when you produce and sell far less than you buy. The person who produces nothing and earns nothing, but buys a lot, must be getting the money for his purchases from somewhere…. And to borrow is to get credit for present needs, with payment deferred to a future date, right?

It is largely because we are consuming more than we are producing, and also buying more than we are selling, that the speculation for “phony money” and profits without productivity have overrun the land. Thus arises the predicament of nations and individuals with “unbalanced” market profile and appetites. Thus, also stands the crisis of the Nigerian state and economy today, in bold relief. It need not continue to be so. Increased productivity, ingenious monetary, fiscal and other regulatory mechanisms, in addition to significant increase in national productivity, will see us out of the woods; but not like first thing tomorrow morning.

Truth be told, our monocultural economy, or overdependence on one major source of foreign exchange revenue, is a drawback that can only be remedied by real diversification of the economy. We need to produce more, have more local abundance and export more, for increased social security and foreign earnings.  We should worry about the impact of our energy problems on overall national productivity. We cannot expect sudden economic good fortune when the foreign exchange outflows for all sorts of things, including furniture and kitchen napkins, is continuously rising at the same time that foreign exchange inflows are shrinking steadily.

That is why it would take much more than Cardoso, or the CBN, to make the national currency look good.  We are in turbulent waters, and the naira is in it with us. Our people say that the swimmer who finds himself in the midst of very turbulent currents, and who resolves to swim all day in order to prove his mettle should remember that he is not a fish. Even the fish usually finds its comfort zone in quieter sides of any fast flowing river.

QUOTE:

The forces arrayed against Cardoso, his team and also the Naira include the following: “(1) A volatile and economic political environment, (2) Elite consumption patterns, (3) Overall low national productivity, (4) Limited public understanding of fiscal and monetary policy issues, (5) Incredibly high demand for the dollar and, very importantly, (6) The new-found use of the dollar as a major Store of Value, the way people used to buy houses under property speculation.”

Ogun State witnessed yet another epoch-making event last Friday, with the flag-off of the Gateway Inland Dry Port construction located at Kajola in Ewekoro Local Government Area. The Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Alhaji Adegboyega Oyetola, performed the ground-breaking ceremony amidst public excitement. Like no other before it, the Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun glowed with an aura of inner fulfilment seeing his dream come true.

Having a dry port in the state to support and drive its sustainable industrial growth is one of the overarching objectives of his administration. Therefore, achieving the feat, without a doubt, is another significant milestone in his aggressive pursuit of infrastructural transformation as a catalyst for domestic and direct foreign investment inflow into the state.
And, of course, the importance of a dry port for sustainable industrial growth in a state like Ogun, with its peculiar advantage of proximity to Lagos State hosting the largest seaport in West Africa cannot be overemphasized. In transportation and logistics jargon, an Inland dry port is an intermodal terminal directly connected by road or rail to a seaport, operating as a centre for transporting sea cargo to inland destination.

In other words, an inland port is a physical site located away from traditional land, air, and coastal borders with the vision to facilitate and process international trade through strategic investment in multi-modal transportation assets and by promoting value-added services as goods move through the supply chain
In addition to its role in cargo trans-shipment, dry ports may also include facilities for the storage and consolidation of goods, cargo carriers, and customs clearance services. An inland port is an inland site linked to a seaport. As this kind of port does not require a waterway, the key features include the transfer of containers between different modes of transportation (intermodal transfer) and the processing of international trade.

The creation of a dry port is to relieve competition for storage and customs space at the seaport. When completed, the Gateway Dry Inland Port will help to facilitate the flow of cargo between ships and major land transportation networks, creating a more central distribution point. The port will also improve the movement of imports and exports, moving the time-consuming sorting and processing of containers inland, away from congested seaports in Lagos.

So, rather than goods being loaded and unloaded in the already congested Lagos Seaport, shipping containers can be transferred by road vehicle to the dry port. Container handling space can be reduced by transferring functions to an inland port away from the Sea port and coast. For example, the functions of receiving, processing through customs, inspecting, sorting, and consolidating containers going to the overseas port can be transferred to this Inland Port to reduce congestion.The presence of dry port in Ogun will attract new cargo flows and boost the economic effect of increasing the volume of transit cargo transportation, while also reducing the idle time of wagons waiting for reloading and the turnaround time of an empty container.

More specifically, when it becomes operational, the Port is expected to reduce congestion in the existing Lagos Seaports and transform the country into a trans-shipment hub. Over the years, Lagos has witnessed rising transport demand and road traffic jams which have led to increasing congestion and delays at the Ports. Successful completion of the project will not only reduce congestion at the Seaport but also increase cross-border trade between Nigeria and neighbouring countries.

It will also enhance distribution by setting up a link between the inland and sea port, resulting in a lower unit cost than sending containers individually by road. The containers are collected from their origins or distributed to their ultimate destinations by road with the transfer happening at the inland site.
The multiplier effects of all of these combined will generate huge employment opportunities for the teeming youths.

By projection, the project is expected to create an estimated 20,000 new jobs directly and indirectly. This will in turn create a new vista of economic growth for the state and the nation as a whole.

Oyetola, speaking on the momentous occasion at Kajola, gave this assurance, adding that “it will attract investments that will spur regional development, benefiting Ogun State and beyond. This project is not merely about building infrastructure but about laying the foundation for a key logistics hub that will facilitate the movement of goods across Nigeria, creating over 5,000 direct jobs, 15,000 indirect jobs, and stimulating local businesses,” he said.

Giving further insight into the project, he said the port would be built to international standards and equipped with the latest digital systems for tracking, clearance, and cargo movement to ensure efficiency, transparency, and global competitiveness.

“No doubt, this project aligns seamlessly with the ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’ of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as we are committed to creating an enabling environment that fosters innovation, economic growth, and infrastructural development. This initiative will undoubtedly help Ogun State become a more attractive destination for businesses and investors, reinforcing our collective aspiration for a prosperous Nigeria.

“During a recent visit to a logistics hub in Lagos, I observed firsthand the challenges businesses face due to congestion at our traditional seaports, which result in longer transport times and increased costs. This experience highlights the urgent need for developing inland ports like the Gateway Inland Dry Port.

“Inland Dry Ports provide faster and more efficient alternatives for moving goods, ultimately benefiting our economy and reducing the burden on our coastal seaports,” Oyetola emphasised.

He explained that the development of inland dry ports was a critical component of the broader strategy to position Nigeria as a leading player in the Blue Economy, stating “that as the nation continues to diversify its economy, it is essential to create infrastructure that serves as key nodes in the supply chain, thereby reducing reliance on traditional seaports.”

The Minister expressed optimism that the Dry Port would enhance the efficiency of the logistics network and contribute to the decongestion of Apapa, and Tin Can Ports, both in Lagos, thus improving Nigeria’s trade competitiveness on the global stage.
Accordingly, he directed the Nigerian Shippers’ Council to ensure that the Port is developed as a state-of-the-art facility integrating advanced technology, leveraging ICT for seamless operations, and developing robust infrastructure that supports modern port processes.

“It is imperative that the Nigerian Shippers’ Council works closely with the Ogun State Government and the concessionaire to build a maritime ecosystem that is not only competitive but also a leader in innovation and technological advancement. Sustainability must be at the core of all our infrastructure projects.

“This Inland Dry Port is expected to significantly contribute to achieving that goal by enhancing the efficiency of our logistics network, reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with road transportation, and promoting environmentally sustainable practices in line with global standards,” he stated.

The host Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, who had long envisioned the creation of a dry port to boost the state’s economy, re-echoed Oyetola’s optimism, saying the Port would help in opening up and engendering more development in the State by serving as a transport and logistics hub for the nation.

He outlined the immense benefits of the project thus: “Having identified the ideal location convenient to our Gateway Dry Port inland container terminal, this facility is a key enabler of industrial activity and manufacturing in Ogun State. It will, on completion, increase the ranking of our State on the ease of doing business index.

“Because of the rail line right here, containers destined for Ogun can be ferried to Kajola and, on arrival, loaded onto the train and transported to Shederu, Kajola. Our manufacturers will be able to bring in their raw materials without having to go through the hassle of going to Lagos Tin Can or Apapa Ports to clear and transport while dealing with the attendant demurrage costs that add to their overall cost of production.
“This Port will reduce vehicular trailer traffic on our roads, thus reducing the wear and tear and early maintenance on roads leading in and out of Lagos.
“With the Gateway Inland Dry Port, we are solidifying our position as the foremost logistics and industrial hub in the country, bringing unparalleled advantages to businesses operating here.

Abiodun said the groundbreaking event was not merely the foundation of a dry port, but the beginning of a new era of economic growth, job creation, and increased prosperity, emphasizing that the project was a testament to the shared vision of prosperity and industrialization that would transform the State into a leading logistics and commercial centre both in Nigeria and across West Africa.
The Commissioner for Transportation, Engr. Gbenga Dairo, said the groundbreaking was another demonstration of the administration’s commitment to grow the economy and spread development to every part of the State.

The Olu of Ilaro and paramount ruler of Yewaland who is also the Chairman, Ogun State Council of Obas, Oba Kehinde Olugbenle, used the occasion to appeal for the reconstruction of the Sagamu interchange-Papalanto-Ilaro road to derive full benefits of the project. He thanked President Bola Tinubu for approving the siting of the port in the State, noting that his Renewed Hope agenda was already taking shape.

*Ogbonnikan writes from Abeokuta, Ogun State capital

The World Bank’s Senior Vice President by the name of Indermit Gill, who is originally Indian, incited mass panic in Nigeria on October 14 when he said Nigeria would need to sustain its current soul-sucking, agonizingly punishing, and self-destructive “reforms” for “at least another 10 to 15 years to transform its economy.”

Gill’s speech at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja—which read partly like the smug, cloying, self-congratulatory bluster President Bola Tinubu would write and partly like the intentionally obfuscating gobbledygook of dubious experts who want to conceal the truth from the uninitiated—elicited verbal and nonverbal expressions of fervent disapproval from the well-fed elites of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group and the Ministry of Budget and National Planning (who planned the event) when he said Nigeria must continue this path of national self-incineration “at least another 10 to 15 years.”

Gill was compelled to wonder aloud if the murmurs his callous exhortation triggered were a signal of disagreement or agreement from his audience. The camera zoomed in on people nodding discontentment or using their fingers to gesture disapproval. If he is smart, he would know the answer to his question.

But the soulless, blood-sucking economic vampire was unmoved. He insisted that enduring “terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigerian society” (his words) as a consequence of the gutting of petrol subsidies is the only way to “become the engine of growth in sub-Saharan Africa.” “It is very difficult to do these things,” he said, “but the rewards are massive.” What massive rewards can come out of policies that take both lives and means of livelihood?

The phrase “at least” suggests that 10 to 15 years of piecemeal national mass immolation is the irreducible minimum required to achieve prosperity. That is, 10 to 15 years is the smallest possible national self-annihilation Nigeria has to endure to “transform its economy.” Since the least possible effort can’t always guarantee success, it means it would take more than 15 years (possibly 50 years— or even eternity) to achieve prosperity through national mass annihilation.

Well, since President Tinubu can’t rule longer than seven more years (assuming he wins a second term in 2027), the World Bank has effectively prepared the perfect, ready-made alibi to explain away the irrecoverable harm its loathsome and baleful prescriptions will visit on Nigeria in the next few years.

Tinubu’s successor, whoever that may be, would be insane to continue with this mass obliteration of the populace they call “reforms.”

 If he or she has brain cells in his or her skull and reverses this ruinous course, the World Bank would say, “Well, we told you that you needed to incinerate yourselves for at least 15 more years before you can have a chance at living. Since you brought yourselves back to life after only eight years of being in the burner, you are not sufficiently cooked, and we are not responsible for the burns and devastation that eight years of incineration brought to you. You see, you can only live if you burn yourselves alive, which you refused to do.”

This caricature might come across as grotesque and transgressive of the bounds of reasonableness, but it faithfully captures the logic of World Bank economic prescriptions for developing countries: you need to die before you can live.

If not, how could anyone celebrate the democratization of privation? “The price of [petrol] has quintupled since the subsidy cuts, imposing terrible hardships across the breadth of Nigerian society,” Gill said with a triumphant tone.

Well, one of the unspoken, unacknowledged but nonetheless far-reaching consequences of the quintupling of petrol prices is the slow but sure death of what remained of Nigeria’s education. Because of the dire existential precarity that the unaccustomed and ceaseless hikes in petrol prices have caused, many children are dropping out of school like leaves abandoning a tree before the storm hits.

A National Assembly member told me a few days ago that a prominent emir in Northwest Nigeria confided in him that he was alarmed by the sheer number of young people who are dropping out of school (at all levels of education) in his traditional sphere of authority because parents can’t afford to feed, and they consider paying the school fees of their children a burden they can’t shoulder.

This tragedy, this conscienceless assassination of the future of our youth in the service of the World Bank, isn’t limited to the North. 

Two weeks ago, a close relative of mine who lives in the Southwest requested my assistance to pay the school fees of five children who were roaming the streets because they had been sent home from school for failure to pay their school fees. Their father disappeared without a trace before he couldn’t cope. Their mother, a petty trader, manages to feed the children once in a day on a good day. But they used to get by before Tinubu’s “economic reforms” upended their lives.

We in the North are in a worse state because we are already behind the rest of the country in educational attainment. Now we are sliding even further as the sting of Tinubu’s World Bank-instigated “reforms” disrupts lives.

When a “reform” rolls back gains in school enrollment and effectively jeopardizes the future of the youth and of the country, you have to wonder why you need to implement it for at least 10 to 15 years to “grow.” It’s like pulling bricks from the foundation of a house in the name of building a taller roof. What good can possibly come out of that?

What sort of “reform” contracts the economy, diminishes the productive sector, reduces the purchasing power of the people, reverses growth in education, and even kills people’s will to live?

Tinubu has repeatedly assured Nigerians that the dark tunnel of his “reforms” will produce light during his presidency and that Nigerians only have to endure a temporary penance. But the World Bank, his puppeteer, has undercut his message. It says it will take at least 10 to 15 years of maintaining these “reforms,” which extend beyond the time he is constitutionally allowed to rule, to see any benefits.

 In other words, Nigerians are condemned to unmitigated anguish and deprivation for a deferred benefit that will never come since Tinubu won’t be around for the next 10 to 15 years, and his “reforms” would probably ensure that Nigerians don’t elect another neoliberal World Bank/IMF flunkey who will tout mass starvation of the citizenry as praiseworthy “reform.”

And here’s the uncomfortable truth: history offers too many cautionary tales of developing nations that have followed this very same script, only to find themselves worse off. Argentina in the early 2000s, for instance, stood on the precipice of ruin after blindly swallowing the IMF’s bitter medicine. With a wild, neoliberal, anarchist wacko of a president called Javier Milei, Argentina is back in the pit of World Bank/IMF hell.

 Ecuador, too, suffered a devastating financial crisis when it adopted policies that hollowed out its middle class.

 The World Bank and its cadre of international experts rarely account for the peculiarities of each nation’s economic and social dynamics. What they offer is a one-size-fits-all solution that has often wreaked havoc on the most vulnerable.

Nigeria is being told to trust this path, but development doesn’t emerge from policies that wipe out the middle class, impoverish the population, and render a nation’s currency barely worth the paper it’s printed on.

True development is rooted in fostering economic diversity, building local industry, and safeguarding the purchasing power of ordinary citizens. It’s about listening to the rhythm of the local economy and respecting its complexity, not bulldozing over it with a neoliberal agenda crafted in the halls of Washington.

No doubt, Nigeria’s economy has long needed repair. But it is one thing to call for reform and another to advocate for policies that feel like economic warfare on your own people. Tinubu may believe that this is a necessary sacrifice, but the logic of endless suffering in the name of eventual relief is deeply flawed. Countries do not develop by punishing their citizens into submission.

We must ask ourselves: how much longer can Nigeria afford to endure policies that erode its very foundation? For a nation whose citizens have weathered so many storms, the path forward must be built not on external dictates but on an understanding of Nigeria's unique strengths and vulnerabilities. And while the World Bank preaches patience from afar, Nigerians know better than most that promises of future prosperity mean little when the present is unbearable.

A leader worth following is one who understands this. A leader who places the needs of the people above the dictates of international financial institutions. Nigeria cannot afford to pay this price much longer, and Bola Tinubu's legacy may well rest on whether he is willing to listen to the cries of his people—or whether he will remain a distant echo of the world’s technocrats.