Gunmen suspected to be herdsmen on Sunday night hijacked a commercial vehicle along the Otukpo-Adoka road in Benue State, killing the driver and abducting all passengers on board.

The incident occurred around 11 p.m. as the vehicle was en route to Otukpo from Abuja.

Eyewitnesses told DAILY POST that the attackers opened fire as soon as they sighted the vehicle, causing the driver to lose control and veer off the road into nearby bushes after being hit by a bullet.

The assailants subsequently abducted all the passengers before abandoning the vehicle at the scene.

The body of the slain driver, identified as a native of Adoka, has been recovered and taken to his hometown.

Meanwhile, military personnel have arrived at the scene and launched a manhunt for the attackers.

[DailyPost]

• Expert cautions against delayed fiscal execution, dependence on oil price

Despite headwinds, Budget 2025 will be implemented to achieve its objectives, Federal Government sources said yesterday.

A drastic drop in oil price and delayed take-off, among other factors, are threatening the N54.99 trillion Appropriation Act.

An official said there was no cause for worry because the government can easily adjust to the international oil price fluctuations.

Besides, the official said the lifespan of the capital component of last year’s budget was pro-actively extended till next month by the National Assembly to take care of such shocks.

A source said: “Critical steps are already in motion to ensure that the budget is not derailed. The National Assembly took proactive measures by extending the lifespan of the capital component of the 2024 budget until June. 

“This extension was aimed at ensuring continuity in funding for projects that are already underway. The idea was to focus on ongoing projects. So, there is no cause for alarm about 2025 Budget implementation.”

The Nation further learnt that implementation of budgets begins with the procurement process, which the source explained, could take four to five months before the award of contracts.

He said: “This timeline accounts for the perceived slow pace of the 2025 Budget rollout. Implementation is a process that begins with procurement. Usually, that takes averagely four to five months before the actual award of contract.”

On whether the government was paying attention to the capital expenditure side of the budget, the government insider pointed out that “the recurrent component of the 2025 Budget is in effect. This has kept essential government operations running smoothly.

“The recurrent component of the budget is being implemented. Otherwise, government operations would have been grounded to a halt. So, it’s incorrect to say that the 2025 Budget is not being implemented.”

There are concerns about oil price volatility. In the Budget 2025 Appropriation Act, oil price is pegged at $75 per barrel but as at yesterday, it was sold at $61.5 per barrel.

An official said there was no cause for alarm.

He dismissed such fluctuations as a familiar challenge.

According to the source, Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, had explained that the budget remains an estimate that can be adjusted as conditions require.

“Oil price volatility is not a new phenomenon. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning has responded several times to this issue. Budget is essentially an estimate that could be adjusted as the situation demands,” he explained.

Acknowledging that oil remains the dominant source of revenue, the official indicated that the government is taking aggressive steps to diversify and boost revenue collection.

A major focus, he revealed, is on increasing crude oil production, a responsibility now firmly placed on the shoulders of the newly appointed board and management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

“Oil might be the major source of revenue, but there are other sources. The government’s response would be to ramp up production. This is one of the targets given to the new management of the NNPCL,” he stated.

He said that the President Bola Tinubu administration had from the outset prioritised increased production and lower production costs as twin goals for the petroleum sector.

The source explained: “The underlying objectives of the Bola Tinubu administration are to increase production and reduce the cost of production. The new board and management of the NNPCL have been saddled with this responsibility with timelines.

“Apart from oil, attention is now being shifted to non-oil sector as alternative sources of revenue. The government is actively working through the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) and various government-owned enterprises to step up revenue collection.

“Revenue collection is being ramped up to ensure the budget is funded appropriately. The FIRS and Customs Service, as well as government-owned enterprises, have been charged to up their game. There is nothing to panic about.”

 The tax reform due to come into place after passage by the Senate this month, in concurrence with the passage of the tax bills by the House of Representatives, will also widen the tax net and bring in more revenue without additional tax burden on the people.

This will enhance better funding for Budget 2025.

Managing Director,  Ambosit Capital Managers, Dr. Wahab Balogun, called for urgent fiscal reforms and accelerated implementation measures to avert economic stagnation.

He explained that for Nigeria to achieve inclusive growth, fiscal discipline must return to the center of public finance. “We cannot afford another year of delayed implementation and dependence on oil price ,” he warned.

Reacting to the government’s efforts to shore up revenue through the FIRS, NCS and  and various Government-Owned Enterprises (GOEs),  Balogun said the current oil price of $61.45 per barrel, which is significantly lower than the $75 benchmark in the 2025 budget, presents a serious fiscal challenge.

According to him, the government must now look beyond oil. He stressed the need to broaden the non-oil revenue base and enhance compliance across the tax system. He urged the FIRS to intensify digital tax administration and enforce the Finance Act provisions on tax remittance and withholding obligations.

He said: “The government must accelerate the implementation of the tax harmonization roadmap recommended by the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee.”

He also noted that the Nigeria Customs Service must become more efficient in blocking leakages, curbing smuggling, and ensuring full implementation of border revenue policies.

He added: “Customs modernization is no longer optional; it’s a necessity. Streamlining duty waivers and enforcing compliance at all entry points will significantly boost collections.”

On the role of GOEs, Balogun argued that many of these enterprises underperform due to weak corporate governance. He stressed that the government must commercialize and hold GOEs accountable, pointing out that only a handful remit any meaningful surplus. “This is a missed opportunity in an economy trying to close a growing fiscal gap,” he said.

He further advised the government to aggressively pursue public-private partnerships (PPPs), asset monetization, and cost-cutting reforms. According to him, through agencies like the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC) and the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE), the administration can unlock significant value by concessioning dormant assets and scaling back non-essential expenditure.

On the delayed implementation of the 2025 budget, Balogun expressed concern that the extension of the capital component of the 2024 budget until June 2025 could undermine fiscal stability and policy coherence. While acknowledging that the extension is legally permitted, he argued that it distorts the budget cycle and hampers the timely execution of new projects.

“We’re already in May and no funds have been released for 2025 capital projects. This creates uncertainty for investors, contractors, and even states relying on federation account flows,” he noted.

Balogun called for the immediate release of 2025 recurrent funds and urged the Budget Office to publish the implementation framework without further delay. He also recommended a performance audit of the 2024 capital budget to identify dormant or slow-moving projects, which can then be reallocated to critical areas once the June deadline lapses.

He insisted on the need to harmonize budget approval, procurement, and project execution timelines to reduce the incidence of rollovers, while also urging the National Assembly to strengthen its oversight role to ensure that MDAs fully utilize their allocations within the budget year.

[TheNation]

The Niger Delta Development Commission has warned the public regarding the activities of fraudsters offering non-existent postgraduate scholarships to unsuspecting victims.

The Director of Corporate Affairs at the NDDC, Mrs Seledi Thompson-Wakama, issued the warning in a statement released in Port Harcourt on Sunday.

She disclosed that the scammers had been soliciting money from members of the public under the pretext of securing scholarship placements.

“The attention of the NDDC has been drawn to fraudulent emails and messages sent to applicants of the commission’s Postgraduate Foreign Scholarship Programme,” she said.

Thompson-Wakama revealed that the fraudulent emails, purportedly sent from This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and claiming to be from the NDDC’s ‘Board Registry,’ invite recipients to a fictitious document verification and authentication exercise.

According to her, the purported exercise is scheduled to take place from May 19 to May 21 at Bishop Oluwole Street, Victoria Island, Lagos.

“Members of the public are hereby advised that the NDDC has no affiliation with this fraudulent selection process,” she stressed.

She further clarified that all official communication concerning the commission’s scholarship programme is conducted exclusively through the official NDDC portal: www.scholarship.nddc.gov.ng.

“Applicants are strongly advised to disregard any unsolicited messages requesting money, invitation, sensitive information, or offering scholarship placements outside of the official NDDC procedures,” she added.

Thompson-Wakama urged anyone who receives such fraudulent emails to report them immediately to the appropriate law enforcement authorities for prompt investigation and action.

She encouraged Nigerians interested in the NDDC’s programmes to utilise only the official NDDC communication channels.

“We also advise former beneficiaries of the commission’s programmes and prospective applicants to verify all information through the NDDC’s official website: www.nddc.gov.ng,” she concluded.

NAN

With no official campaigning or list of candidates and the election process shrouded in secrecy, speculation about who will succeed Pope Francis after the conclave beginning this week remains just that — speculation.

But here are 15 cardinals who are among the potential favourites to succeed Pope Francis — so-called “papabili” — divided by region.

EUROPE

Pietro Parolin (Italy), 70, Francis’s number two at the Vatican

Parolin was secretary of state — the Vatican’s effective number two — for almost Francis’s entire pontificate, and its most visible exponent on the world stage. 

Known for his calm and subtle sense of humour, the polyglot also has a fine grasp of the intricacies of the Roman Curia, the Holy See’s central government, and was part of a group of cardinal advisers to Francis.

He is currently considered the frontrunner to become the next pope.

He played a key role in a landmark — and controversial — 2018 Vatican agreement with China on naming bishops.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy), 60, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem

Pizzaballa is the top Catholic in the Middle East with an archdiocese encompassing Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan and Cyprus.

He was made a cardinal in September 2023, shortly before the war broke out between Israel and Hamas.

The Franciscan has appealed for peace from both sides, and at Christmas in 2024 led mass in both Gaza and Jerusalem.

Matteo Maria Zuppi (Italy), 69, Archbishop of Bologna

A member of the Roman community of Sant’Egidio, Zuppi has for more than three decades acted as a discreet diplomat for the Vatican including serving as Pope Francis’s special peace envoy for Ukraine.

Known for riding his bicycle around Bologna, Zuppi is a popular figure for his decades of work on behalf of the needy. He also advocates for welcoming migrants and gay Catholics into the Church.

He has been president of the Italian Episcopal Conference (CEI) since 2022.

Claudio Gugerotti (Italy), 69

An academic and multi-lingual diplomat from the Italian city of Verona, Gugerotti is an expert on the Eastern Churches.

He has served as nuncio — or ambassador of the Holy See — in several countries, including from 2002 in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, later in Belarus, and then from 2015 to 2020 in Ukraine.

The author of several books, Gugerotti largely avoids commenting on controversial issues. He was named Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches in 2022, and was made a cardinal in 2023.

Jean-Marc Aveline (France), 66, Archbishop of Marseille

Born in Algeria, Aveline has spent most of his life in the French port city of Marseille.

Like his close friend Pope Francis, he has been a voice for welcoming migrants and promoting interreligious dialogue.

Appreciated for his discretion, intellectual abilities and people skills, Aveline has carved out a reputation as a cardinal to watch since his elevation in 2022.

Anders Arborelius (Sweden), 75, Bishop of Stockholm

Appointed in 2017 as Sweden’s first cardinal, Arborelius is a convert to Catholicism in the overwhelmingly Protestant Scandinavian country, home to one of the world’s most secularised societies.

He is the first Swedish Catholic bishop since the Protestant Reformation and a staunch defender of Church doctrine, notably opposed to allowing women to be deacons or blessing same-sex couples.

Like Pope Francis, Arborelius advocates welcoming migrants to Europe, including Christians, Catholics and potential converts.

Mario Grech (Malta), 68, Bishop emeritus of Gozo

Born into a small village on the tiny Mediterranean archipelago of Malta, Grech is a peace broker and potential compromise candidate for the papacy.

He was secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a body that gathers information from local churches on crucial issues for the Church — such as the place of women or remarried divorcees – and passes it onto the pope.

He had to perform a delicate balancing act, following Pope Francis’s lead on creating an open, attentive Church while acknowledging the concerns of conservatives.

Peter Erdo (Hungary), 72, Metropolitan Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest

An intellectual and respected expert in canon law, Erdo speaks seven languages, has published more than 25 books and is recognised for his openness to other religions.

But he has faced criticism for his ties with the government of nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose harsh views on migration clashed with those of the late Argentine pope.

Known for his enthusiasm for evangelism, Erdo — who grew up under Communism — is a conservative on such issues as gay marriage and divorcees who remarry.

Jean-Claude Hollerich, 66, Archbishop of Luxembourg

A Jesuit like Pope Francis, Hollerich spent more than 20 years in Japan, and is a specialist in European-Asian cultural relations as well as German literature.

Firm on dogma, the theologian is still open to the need for the Church to adapt to societal changes, much like the Argentine pope he was close to and for whom he served as an adviser on the Council of Cardinals.

Hollerich has advocated for the environment and has pushed for laypeople, especially young people, to have more involvement in the Church.

ASIA

Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), 67, Metropolitan Archbishop emeritus of Manila

Tagle, Asia’s frontrunner for the papacy, is a charismatic moderate who has not been afraid to criticise the Church for its shortcomings, including over the sexual abuse of minors.

Fluent in English and active on social media, he is an eloquent speaker with self-deprecating humour and, like Francis, is a leading advocate for the poor, migrants and marginalised people.

Nicknamed “Chito”, he was made a cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2012 and had already been considered a candidate for pope in the 2013 conclave in which Francis was elected.

Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar), 76, Archbishop of Yangon

Myanmar-born Bo became the Buddhist-majority country’s first and only cardinal in 2015, appointed by Pope Francis.

Bo has called for dialogue and reconciliation in conflict-ridden Myanmar, and after the military coup of 2021 appealed to opposition protesters to remain non-violent.

He has defended the mainly Muslim Rohingya, calling them victims of “ethnic cleansing”, and spoken out against human trafficking uprooting the lives of many young Burmese.

He was head of the Federation of Asians Bishops’ Conferences (FABC) between 2019 and 2024.

AFRICA

Peter Turkson (Ghana), 76, Archbishop emeritus of Cape Coast

One of the Church’s most influential cardinals from Africa, Turkson has for years been mentioned as a possible first black pope.

Made a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003, the multi-lingual Turkson has been a papal envoy and mediator, including in South Sudan.

He also served between 2016 and 2021 as head of a top Vatican department, the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, which deals with human rights and migration among other issues.

Born into a humble family of 10 children, Turkson has criticised anti-gay legislation in Uganda, but defends Catholic sexual morality and has denied that homosexuality is a human rights issue.

Robert Sarah (Guinea), 79, former prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments

Had Pope Francis lived a few more months, conservative prelate Robert Sarah — who turns 80 on June 16 — would have been too old to join the conclave or to succeed him.

As it is, though, he has found himself championed by conservative Catholics in the French-speaking world as a candidate to turn the clock back on progressive reforms.

An ardent opponent of what he in 2015 called “Western ideologies on homosexuality and abortion and Islamic fanaticism”, he denounced a 2024 text that paved the way for the blessing of same-sex couples.

Experts believe his views make him too conservative to win a two-thirds majority at the conclave, but even a possible candidacy has boosted his profile.

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo), 65, Archbishop of Kinshasa

Ambongo was the only cardinal from Africa on Pope Francis’s advisory council of cardinals, and is the leader of the association of African bishops, SECAM.

Born in 1960, the year of DRC’s independence from Belgium, he has been a strong voice for peace in his conflict-ridden country — and is outspoken in his conservative views.

He notably signed a letter in January 2024 voicing opposition to the Vatican’s declaration allowing priests to carry out non-liturgical blessings of same-sex unions.

In a 2023 interview, Ambongo — who some believe could be his continent’s first pope — proclaimed that “Africa is the future of the Church, it’s obvious”.

AMERICAS

Robert Francis Prevost (United States), 69, Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo

A native of Chicago, Prevost was in 2023 appointed prefect of the powerful Dicastery for Bishops, which is charged with advising the pope on appointments of new bishops.

He spent years as a missionary in Peru and is the Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo in that South American country.

Made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023, he is also the president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.

Timothy Dolan (United States), 75, Archbishop of New York

A jovial, ruddy-faced extrovert with Irish-American roots, Dolan is a theological conservative, fiercely opposed to abortion.

The former archbishop of Milwaukee, he oversaw the fallout from a major sexual abuse scandal in the diocese.

In New York, amid shrinking Church membership, Dolan has reached out to embrace the growing Hispanic population, which is predominantly Catholic.

Nigeria’s 2027 elections, now just 21 months away, may be regulated by a new electoral law, possibly the Electoral Act 2025, as long as the National Assembly concludes the ongoing amendment process and the President grants assent to the bill this year. Therefore, the next few months will be determinative. Debates on electoral reforms and proposed amendments to key sections of the Election Act 2022 and Constitution will dominate public discourse. As the momentum of the 2027 election gathers steam, politicians are becoming more invested in tweaking the rules of the game to guarantee electoral victory in 2027 rather than ensuring electoral reform proposals address the intractable challenges bedevilling Nigeria’s electoral process. Foremost among these challenges is the declining public trust in the electoral process due to election manipulation. Also, ‘captured’ democratic institutions, like INEC and the judiciary, are encumbered by persistent political interference and lastly, policies and practices that disenfranchise eligible citizens from voting.

INEC’s proposals for electoral reform

INEC has officially highlighted its proposals for electoral reform in the current electoral cycle. These include four major constitutional amendments cutting across 16 sections of the 1999 constitution (As Amended). The proposals include the introduction of early voting and special voting to allow eligible voters on essential services to vote at elections. This includes election officials, security personnel, accredited journalists and election observers, as well as voters under incarceration and Nigeria living in the diaspora. This reform will ensure eligible voters are not disenfranchised as a result of their role in elections or location.

To enhance the independence of the Commission, INEC is proposing the removal of the powers to appoint Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) from the President and vest the power in INEC. This amendment would empower INEC to appoint and discipline Heads of State Offices, FCT Offices, and State Directors of Elections. Furthermore, INEC is advocating for the establishment an Electoral Offences Commission and a Political Party Regulatory Agency. To advance political inclusion, INEC recommends the creation of designated constituencies for women and persons with disabilities.

In relation to the 2022 Electoral Act, INEC is advocating for amendments to 35 sections. Notable amongst the proposals include removing the ambiguities in the result management process, particularly the ambiguity in the words ‘transfer’ and ‘direct transmission’ of election results used in Sections 60(5) and 64(4 & 5) of the Electoral Act, which in the estimation of the Commission has resulted in conflicting interpretation. Another significant proposal is the introduction of a caveat to limit INEC’s power to review election results solely to cases of declaration of results under duress. Finally, INEC proposes the introduction of electronically downloadable voter cards or any other form of identification acceptable to the Commission for voter accreditation. This would enhance voter participation and reduce barriers to participation, especially where the physical distribution of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) has proven challenging.

Citizens’ Demands for Electoral Reform

Following extensive consultations and a review of both domestic and international election observation recommendations, civil society groups released a Citizens’ Memorandum on Electoral Reform (2024). The memorandum outlines 37 recommendations under 15 strategic objectives across 15 priority reform areas.

A key citizen demand is strengthening INEC’s independence and professionalism. To achieve this, the power vested in the President to appoint the Chairman, National Commissioners, and RECs should be removed and a multi-stakeholder appointment mechanism adopted. This will ensure appointment to INEC are merit-based appointments and devoid of political interference. The constitutional criteria of “non-partisanship and unquestionable character” should be expanded to include professional qualifications, health status, age, and gender. The introduction of mandatory timelines for appointments into INEC, such as requiring vacancies to be filled within 30 days, is recommended. It will prevent unwarranted delays in constituting the Commission as witnessed in the current instance where the second National Commissioner position for the South East vacated by Barr. Festus Okoye, two years ago, remains unfilled.

Another significant demand is the resolution of pre- and post-election disputes before the swearing-in of elected officials. This amendment will enhance the legitimacy and stability of the electoral process. Achieving this will require revising election timelines as well as abridging the timeframe for hearing and determining pre-election matters and election petitions. The citizen memo also advocates for mandatory electronic transmission of results and legal timelines for testing electoral technologies deployed by INEC. These steps are crucial to improving transparency of any part of the electoral powered by technology. To enhance voter turnout, the memorandum proposes a review of the requirements for voter identification to permit the use of other legally acceptable means of identification for voter verification in addition to Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs). Lastly, early voting is proposed to accommodate election officials and voters delivering essential services on election day such as security personnel, journalists, and accredited observers. This reform would ensure these critical actors are not disenfranchised due to their responsibilities on election day.

Implications for the 2027 elections

While President’s Tinubu electoral reform agenda remains unclear, the National Assembly, through its joint committee on electoral reform, has made significant progress in the review of electoral laws. Four critical priorities emerge from INEC’s proposals and citizens demands:

First, there is a great need to introduce special mechanisms to uphold citizens’ right to vote by making voting accessible. Proposals like early/special voting will enable historically marginalized eligible voters exercise their franchise. It will be historic for INEC officials, inmates, Nigerians in the diaspora, and others to cast their ballot in 2027 due to early/special voting. Alternative forms of identification and downloadable voter cards could address voter disenfranchisement resulting from the non-issuance of PVCs.

Secondly, the election results management regime needs an overhaul. Certain ambiguities in the current electoral act that occasion misinterpretation and discretionary enforcement need to be resolved to clear procedures for collation and transmission. This should include compulsory electronic transmission to complement the manual collation process. Although the Supreme Court has ruled that the INEC IReV is not part of the collation process, this reform cycle presents an opportunity to integrate electronic transmission into the results collation process. Unfortunately, electronic transmission has not featured as a priority reform issue in the current reform process in the National Assembly.

Thirdly, INEC’s independence is non-negotiable. There is growing consensus that divesting the power to appoint individuals from the President is a step towards recapturing the Commission and restoring public confidence. Lastly, concluding election disputes before swearing-in will create a sense of equity and prevent incumbents from influencing judicial outcomes using state resources and power.

However, INEC’s proposal that its power to review election results under Section 65 Electoral Act 2022 should be limited to instances of declaration by duress is problematic. The current law provides two conditions for the exercise of this power: when election results are declared voluntarily and when election results are declared contrary to the provisions of the law, regulations and guidelines, and manual for the election. INEC’s proposal to eliminate the latter will further weaken the results management process, considering recent elections where elections were stolen through clear violations of the Electoral Act and INEC guidelines. Rather than limit the conditions, the current provision should be retained and strengthened to provide clarity on the procedure for activating the power to review election results.

As Nigeria enters a critical period in the electoral reform cycle, history beckons the national assembly and the President to act as statesmen and women by prioritizing public interests above personal or partisan political gain. The country’s electoral process is bleeding and bereft of public trust. While electoral amendments are a pathway to rebuilding trust and safeguarding the credibility of the 2027 elections, attitudinal change among political elites is the reform most needed to ensure every vote counts in February 2027.

Itodo is an election, democracy, and public policy enthusiast. 

Chinedu Obigwe, a chieftain of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), says Chukwuma Soludo, governor of Anambra state, is not funding Nicholas Ukachukwu.

Nkachukwu is the standard-bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Anambra.

He polled 1,455 votes to defeat his closest challenger, Valentine Ozigbo, who came second with 67 votes in the gubernatorial primary election which was held on April 5.

Ozigbo has since challenged the outcome of the primary election, alleging that it was fraught with irregularities.

Last week, Ozigbo claimed Soludo is funding Ukachukwu to destabilise the APC.

In a statement issued on Sunday, Obigwe, who is the national coordinator of Media Warriors Forum of APGA, described Ozigbo’s comment as “laughable”.

He claimed that the APC has no strong presence in the Anambra and could be likened to being nonexistent in the state.

“We laughed uncontrollably when we watched Valentine Ozigbo’s latest Channels TV interview. In the interview, he falsely accused Governor Soludo of funding Ukachukwu to weaken APC,” the statement reads.

“The truth is that there is nothing to weaken in Anambra APC because the party does not exist in our state.

“So a party that is not in existence in Anambra cannot disturb Governor Soludo’s sleep to warrant him sponsoring Ukachukwu that has nothing to offer to weaken the non-existent party.

“Ozigbo should be bold enough to say this and stop living a fake and pretentious lifestyle.

“Governor Soludo has nothing to do with the APC candidate and cannot be funding him. The both of them are not on the same level and can never be.”

The Anambra governorship election is scheduled to take place on November 6, 2025.

[TheCable]

When vultures surround you, stay awake so that you do not die stupid death. Whether you are in business or you are in politics or you are anything of value, stay alive and stay alert. People shave people’s heads in their absence. In 1938, Britain was rumoured to have toyed with the idea of donating Nigeria to Germany as one of its several offerings of appeasement to Hitler. I read of the “strong rumour” in Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s first book, ‘Path to Nigerian Freedom’, published in 1947 – page 38. 

Hitler, two years earlier (September 11, 1936), insisted on “Germany’s right to colonies.” Nine months before Hitler’s insistence, his minister of propaganda, Goebbels, served a notice that “the time will come when we must demand colonies from the world.” In June 1938, Mary E. Townsend published her ‘The German Colonies and the Third Reich.’ She cited two successive editions of the London Times of October 1936 which reported that Hitler had “gained concessions in Africa.” 

The German cup, as it turned out, passed from Nigeria. The rumoured offer to Hitler was eventually not consummated but the mere thought of it tells how ‘valued’ our country and its people were in the heart of those who possessed it. But it is needless to run from fate. You put destiny in a sheath, it destroys the sheath; you put it in a scabbard, it ruins the scabbard. If Nigeria missed being possessed by Germany’s Hitler in 1938, the country’s subsequent history of abduction and rape up to this moment is proof that our fathers were right with their theory of inevitability of fate. A snake swallowing its tail, and swallowing it hard is Nigeria. It is a pool of water-snakes feasting on hapless fishes. 

On Friday this week, it will be 38 years since Chief Awolowo died. Two months before he died on 9 May, 1987, Awo spoke rather cryptically of his “continuing to serve even after death.” Almost 40 years after his transition, his views of Nigeria, his analyses of the systemic problems of the country and his solutions to them have remained the main issues of discussion. 

Awolowo’s ‘Path to Nigerian Freedom’ has proved a worthy carrier of its title. But the path it shows has remained not taken. The late Pius Adesanmi once, at an Awolowo Foundation event, questioned the choice we make as a country. He spoke on what he called “Igbo ree; Ona ree (the bush is here; the path is here).” The choice was – and is – for us to make. We’ve consistently chosen the bush. 

I read the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF)’s boast of last week that the North had the muscle and the number to choose the next president for the other parts of the country. It reminded us that: “The North has 19 out of the 36 states. We also have the FCT as a veritable component. We have a majority in the Senate, the House of Representatives, the National Economic Council as well as the Council of State. The North occupies close to 75 percent of Nigeria’s land area and about 60 percent of the population. An area that is this big and this strong can never be subdued by any opponent…For the moment, it will suffice to say that Northern Nigeria is watching and auditing the actions of the elected and appointed officials, especially at the federal level.” 

Northern leaders always flaunt their population and land mass to intimidate the South. Assets when not harnessed to profitability become liabilities. We say here that vulture may be a large bird, but what it feeds on is rotten flesh. The elephant in its ponderous majesty is as clumsy as they come. Àwòdì tí ń gbé adìẹ lọ́sàn-án ò sanra tó igún. I wonder why it did not occur to the ACF that kites that snatch chicks in broad daylight do not have vulture’s large frame. It is not by size. 

Everything the ACF said was a threat directed at President Bola Tinubu on his second term ambition. Of course, the Tinubu pigeon got the full import of the incantations from the Northern raptor. He rushed to Katsina on Friday – two days after the warning shot was fired. He was there for two days, he even slept there. Tinubu should clap for himself. Did Buhari sleep one night anywhere in Southern Nigeria in his eight years? The visit was Tinubu’s appeasement offering to Hitler to avoid a ‘world war’. Let us hope the aggrieved are pacified now.

Unlike what our teachers taught us, sovereignty is no longer the supreme will of the state; its locus is with any set of human beings “sufficiently strong to compel obedience” to their whims. The North self-assuredly thinks it is the Nigerian sovereign. It said so through the ACF and the president got the message. 

The North thought Goodluck Jonathan was its problem; it got its traditional enemies in Benue and Plateau and the West to join it in removing Jonathan. The North thought having a northern president would solve its existential problems. It brought in Muhammadu Buhari. Under Buhari, the North’s problems multiplied in geometric proportions. It thought a Muslim Muslim ticket was what it needed to be safe and feed well. It brought in a ‘Muslim’ government in May 2023. Less than two years into the tenure of that government of faith, the North is grunting and grumbling very loudly; it shouts marginalization. A million change of government won’t help the north. It must help itself. 

The ACF also expressed concern over insecurity in the North. It said the security challenges in the North were worsening by the day. It then called on the federal government to act swiftly “before it becomes too late.” I will be happy and dance if I find out that it is not already too late. 

By now, it should be clear to the wise that the problem of the North is not, strictly, Bola Tinubu and his ways. The problem wasn’t Jonathan; neither was it Buhari. The problem of the North is the North – its bad ways. Why would a region not have problems of mass poverty when it spurns mass education of its mass children, youths who own tomorrow? Mass procreation plus mass illiteracy must equal mass misery. It is simple arithmetic. Why will there not be blistering insecurity where mass poverty reigns? If you turn your back to where the world faces, you won’t see what the world sees. How will a president relate with a people that take offence when asked to position their eyes towards the future? The best rules the rest in that country called Saudi Arabia. The elite there have used education to elevate their country and their faith. China’s huge population is a huge economic blessing to it. But, the key to northern Nigeria is in the hands of a band of clerics and dark elites who exploit their people’s unquestioning faith in their region and religion, warts and all. 

I read a beautiful piece on Saturday from a gentleman from the North, Idris Muhammed Abdullahi. He wanted a deliverer for northern Nigeria. Like the ACF and its leaders, Abdullahi didn’t write for Nigeria; his interest was the North. He lamented the decay and disappointment that rules his region. He cited the establishment of the Northwest Development Commission (NWDC). He said it was supposed to mark a turning point in the development of the region. “What then happened?” he asked and added that: “One man handpicked all its executives. The commission has now become a personal ATM, hemorrhaging funds meant for schools, irrigation, rural roads, and youth empowerment. It has transformed from a symbol of hope into yet another playground for elite looting.”

What the gentleman wrote of the North is true of everywhere in the country. And it is historical. Nigeria is an elite PoS – or the soup pot of the powerful. How each of our people reacts to it has also historically made the difference. Wrong, when accommodated, festers. Chief Awolowo said it in a more elegant and profound way 46 years ago. He told ‘Africa’ magazine in April 1979 that “since independence, our governments have been a matter of a few holding the cow for the strongest and most cunning to milk. Under the circumstances, everybody runs over everybody to make good at the expense of others.” 

The most popular page in Awo’s ‘Path to Nigerian Freedom’ is page 47. That is where you find the famous quote: “Nigeria is not a nation. It is a mere geographical expression.” Seventy-seven years after that book was published, to be called Nigerian has remained “merely a distinctive appellation” distinguishing “those who live within the boundaries of Nigeria from those who do not.” Each constituent part of the country has held tight to its gene. When we talk or act, it is for where each of us comes from. Read the ACF statement again. It speaks about ‘us’ and ‘them’ and boasts of assets without discussing the liabilities.

The groups in the South think the North a pampered, pompous parasite. Think of why Max Siollun, author of ‘What Britain Did to Nigeria’, described Nigeria as “just a page in a colonial accounting ledger” and why the British officially took the 1914 amalgamation to be a marriage between a poor, hapless husband and a helpless “southern lady of means.”

Check the tone of the ACF complaints; the challenges of governance have been reduced to a North versus South battle. Now, I ask: For how long shall we remain so “tightly fragmented” and have our growth stunted? 

In the 1947 book above, Chief Awolowo observed that the various nations that make up Nigeria cannot progress and prosper together unless they are properly organized in a federation. “The languages differ…Their cultural backgrounds and social outlooks differ widely; and their indigenous political institutions have little in common. Their present stages of development vary.” It is in that book that you read how, 77 years ago, the ethnic groups in the South readily embraced Western civilisation while “the extremely conservative” Hausas and Fulanis took “very reluctantly to Western civilization.” As it was in 1947, so it is in 2025. If thrown up a hundred years from now, the northern hand fan will land side down.

A copius quote from Chief Awolowo here: “All these incompatibilities among the various peoples in the country militate against unification. For one thing, they are bound to slow down progress in certain sections, and on the other hand they tend to engender unfriendly feelings among the diverse elements thus forced together.” Chief Awolowo warned that “incompatibilities such as we have enumerated are barriers which cannot be overcome by glossing over them, They are real, not imaginary obstacles. Those who place these groups under the same constitution ignore them at their peril – more so, as it appears that these incompatibilities tend to grow in size as those concerned become more educated and civilized.” 

If you can find time to read the book, check what the author wrote while citing the Welsh and the Scottish peoples’ experiences and agitation for self-rule. Check his words on other positive examples and the reason some of us say we are postponing the evil day if we think elite looting facilitated by a unitarised Nigeria will ever bring peace and plenty. Listen to Chief Awolowo: “For upwards of seven hundred years, the Irish people struggled to, and eventually did break away from England in spite of the fact that the latter did everything possible to give the former equal status within the British Constitution.” When you read him, you discover that, indeed, two of the three other examples he cited, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, have already unravelled as he predicted; the third, the Dutch-speaking Flemings of Belgium, despite several constitutional interventions, still demand degrees of autonomy. Some of them, in fact, have not stopped chanting “Let My People Go.”

So, what is the solution? 

The solution is knowing that there is no regeneration in spring water flowing towards the desert. Tell the North, tell the South. “Whatever would direct itself after the setting sun, an ashen death lies in wait for it” (Ayi Kwei Armah). Chief Awolowo pointed at the empirical facts of history which he said “are enough to guide us.” He posited that it had been shown beyond all doubts “that the best constitution for… diverse peoples is a federal constitution.” He pointed at the Constitution of Switzerland, which he said “is acclaimed to be the best and the most democratic in the world since it gives complete autonomy to every racial group within the framework.” 

In a truly federal Nigeria, there won’t be allegations of Muhammadu Buhari regime marginalising the South; neither will there be a Bola Tinubu government suffering the stigma of being a Yoruba government. A weak centre will be too unattractive to attract do-or-die politics; neither will it serve as a fetter holding down any part that wants to run. It will serve any one content with crawling to continue to crawl – as we compulsorily do today. 

But can we take a redemptive bend? The wise would say we are too far gone to retrace our steps. “No spring changes the desert. The desert remains” – that, again, is from Armah. Creating a workable system – a system that works – is what we have refused to come up with. We know what it is and how it will serve us, but we just won’t go for it. For us, the bush is the way.

By the time you are reading this, we would have had a good belly laugh, a few or more persons would have also been arrested, must have had their hair cut by overzealous security personnel. It is Nigeria, the deed done, we would have moved on to the next matter.

Minna, the capital of Niger State, faces genuine security challenges—thuggery, cultism, and drug-related crimes—that demand urgent action. However, Governor Umar Mohammed Bago’s Executive Order on Thuggery Activities (22/04/2025) responds to these issues with measures that flagrantly violate legal norms, human rights, and constitutional principles. While the intent to restore order is understandable, the order’s provisions exemplify executive overreach, collective punishment, and a dangerous disregard for due process. 

Let me quickly state that I am not a lawyer…and I am not sure that I need to be one to share my fact—based opinions.

The executive order’s most egregious clauses contravene Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution and international human rights standards: Extrajudicial Killings and Collective Punishment (Clause 1): Declaring that individuals found with weapons (even sticks) should be “treated as armed robbers” and killed, with families charged for bullets, violates Section 33 of the Constitution, which guarantees the right to life. It also imposes collective punishment, outlawed under international law. Such measures normalize state-sanctioned violence and erode public trust. 

I don’t want to talk about the Criminalizing Appearance (Clause 2) is a profound testament to how our thoughts are wired. Arresting citizens for dreadlocks—a cultural and religious symbol for many—infringes on personal liberty (Section 34) and freedom of expression (Section 39). Targeting hairstyles is discriminatory and fuels marginalization, akin to past oppressive policies like Nigeria’s 1984 “War Against Indiscipline.” Which is why it did not succeed and it is not about to succeed now.

How about Property Rights and Due Process (Clause 6): Demolishing homes without court orders violates Section 44’s protection against compulsory property acquisition. Similarly, confiscating vehicles (Clause 10) bypasses judicial oversight, rendering the state both accuser and judge.  

I can tell that on Curfews and Overreach (Clauses 3, 9): While curfews can be legitimate, blanket bans on Okada/Keke Napep without consultation disproportionately harm low-income workers. Centralizing “Operation Flush” under the governor politicizes security agencies, risking abuse.  

And on the Erosion of Judicial Independence (Clause 7): Establishing “special courts” under the Chief Judge’s supervision risks undermining judicial impartiality, as expedited trials may compromise fair hearings (Section 36).  

These clauses reflect a troubling trend: governance by decree, not law.  

The order’s rationale—combating crime through fear—is both ineffective and unethical. History shows that heavy-handed tactics, like our not too far in the past SARS unit approach, exacerbates violence and alienation. By equating sticks with firearms, the order dehumanizes youths, many of whom are victims of systemic neglect. Demolishing homes and arresting community leaders (Clauses 5–6) scapegoats the poor while ignoring elite enablers of crime. Worse, it diverts attention from the government’s failure to address root causes: unemployment, poor education, and institutional corruption.  

The absurdity of these measures recalls a tale of a lawyer who sold a well to a teacher, only to later insist the water wasn’t included. When the teacher threatened to charge rent for the water, the lawyer retreated, exposing the folly of such exploitative logic. Governor Bago’s order mirrors this hypocrisy: it weaponizes legal technicalities to strip citizens of rights, much like the lawyer’s hollow claim over the well’s water. But just as the teacher turned the tables, the people of Minna can—and must—challenge this overreach. The order’s contradictions reveal its fragility; collective resistance can force accountability, as the teacher’s wit did the lawyer’s greed.

Sustainable solutions require addressing socio-economic drivers of crime and restoring trust. Now my dear governor and brother…to my grouse. I have a dread and I am not a criminal—

I believe you could have resorted to Community Policing: Train officers to work with local leaders, youth groups, and NGOs to identify risks collaboratively. A better approach and initiative that can reduce crime through dialogue and intelligence-sharing.  

How much has your government invested in vocational programs, public education, and job creation? For example, how many schemes are currently running to curb cultism by offering alternatives to crime.  

Truth be told, I keep stating that strengthening existing courts to handle cases swiftly while ensuring fairness is better than Mobile courts and improved legal aid services can improve access to justice without sacrificing rights.  

At the heart of these increased crime rates is the drug menace, I dare say, replacing punitive drug policies with health-focused approaches. Partnerships with NGOs can provide counseling and reintegration support.

At the heart of all the backlash also is the fact that there is an inherent flaw in the Political Communication methodology. Governor Bago’s authoritarian rhetoric deepens divides. Better political communication would: Engage Citizens: Hold town halls to co-create policies with affected communities. Promote Transparency: Publish crime data and budget allocations for security initiatives. Avoid Stigmatization: Replace inflammatory language (e.g., “thugs”) with terms that recognize systemic failures.  

The Minna executive order substitutes tyranny for justice. True security cannot be built on violated rights and collective punishment. By embracing dialogue, equity, and accountability, Niger State can tackle its challenges without sacrificing the rule of law. As Bob Marley, the “Natty Dread” himself, once sang: “Until the philosophy which holds one race superior and another inferior is finally discredited, everywhere is war.” Let Minna’s war on crime not become a war on its people—May Nigeria win!

--

Prince Charles Dickson PhD

Team Lead

The Tattaaunawa Roundtable Initiative (TRICentre)

The collapse of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) structure into the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Delta State could either strengthen or destabilize the APC, depending on how well old and new members integrate.
Interestingly, most of the original APC members in Delta were themselves former PDP members. So, the latest defectors are simply following a path previously taken by their predecessors.
In essence, the APC in Delta today is largely made up of former PDP members — from leadership to grassroots.

Make no mistake about it,there is nothing wrong in defection, per se.
After all the president of the United States of America, USA, Donald J Trump did not commence his political career as a member of the Republican party. Rather he registered as a Republican party member in only in 1987, and became a member of the lndependent party , the New York state affiliate of the Reform party in 1999. He was a Democrat in 2001 , a Republican in 2009 and he became unaffiliated in 2011 and finally returned to the Republican party in 2012.
Similarly, Robert F Kennedy Jnr defected from the Democratic party in the course of his presidential race in 2024 to contest as an lndependent party cancidate. He is currently the Health and Human Services secretary in President Trump’s administration after he colapsed his campaign into Trump’s Republican party campaign platform .
So, there is no big deal about defection in a democracy.
What should concern APC leaders in Abuja is whether the internal rivalries that fractured the PDP — and triggered the current wave of defections — might resurface and destabilize the APC if not properly managed.
The emerging APC, both in Delta and nationally, increasingly resembles the PDP of old — merely repackaged under a different banner.

Delta State, often described as a microcosm of Nigeria due to its diverse ethnic makeup, frequently reflects broader national trends.
Thus, the mass defection happening in the state that prides herself as the “Big Heart state” could signal the beginning of an even wider migration of politicians across the country, at a scale Nigeria has never witnessed before.

To ensure a smooth merger of the old and new party members, the APC State Chairman, Elder Omeni Sobotie, has directed all local government chairmen to collect registration booklets to formally enroll the new members, completing their transition into the party.

However, tensions from the 2023 elections, when the APC’s Ovie Omo-Agege contested against the PDP’s Sheriff Oborevwori, still linger. Although overt hostilities may be muted, old rivalries could resurface if not carefully managed — possibly requiring intervention from the party’s leadership in Abuja.

Among the old APC loyalists, who are politically weaker compared to the PDP’s dominance in Delta’s executive, legislative, and judicial branches, there may be a tendency to look down on the newcomers, branding them derisively as the “Taiwan APC.”
In local Nigerian parlance, especially among motor spare parts traders, “Taiwan” is used to describe imitation or inferior products — a reference to Taiwan’s early reputation for cheap manufacturing.

The use of “Taiwan” as a political insult gained prominence during the 2023 presidential elections, reportedly popularized by Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate. Obi, who dramatically disrupted Nigeria’s political landscape, especially the PDP’s strongholds, allegedly dismissed Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa — Atiku Abubakar’s running mate — as a “Taiwan Igbo.”
By that, Obi implied that Okowa, being from the Ika-speaking region of Delta State (the Igbo-speaking area of Delta North), was not an authentic Igbo, but rather an imitation — a symbolic slight against the PDP’s choice of running mate.

It appears that, because they originate from west of the Niger River, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa and the people of Delta North are not seen by many eastern Igbos as authentic members of the Igbo ethnic group. Consequently, they are often perceived as “fake” or “Taiwan” Igbos — a term used locally to imply imitation.

Drawing a parallel from this sentiment, the recent influx of PDP defectors into the APC in Delta State could risk being seen in a similar light — as “Taiwan APC” — if tensions between old and new members are not properly managed.

To avoid such damaging divisions, the APC must ensure seamless integration. Fortunately, the party has significant experience managing mergers, dating back to 2013 when it successfully united the ACN, CPC, ANPP, and a faction of the PDP into the current APC platform. Given this track record, it should not be difficult for the party’s national leadership, particularly Chairman Dr. Abdulahi Umar Ganduje, to create a task force to manage the blending process — similar to how businesses handle mergers and acquisitions (M&A).

Events unfolding in Nigeria’s political arena suggest that President Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign will be anything but business as usual.
While the PDP is attempting to replicate Tinubu’s 2013 strategy — merging opposition forces into a special-purpose political vehicle to oust the ruling party — it is ironically being weakened by an aggressive takeover orchestrated by the APC.
Tinubu, much like a masterful Samurai or a Sumotori (Sumo wrestler), has disarmed and destabilized his opposition two years before the next election cycle.

It’s worth recalling that President Muhammadu Buhari himself once credited Tinubu for his eventual success in the 2015 presidential election, after three failed attempts. Tinubu’s depth in political strategy has always been a major force in Nigerian politics.

To draw a clearer parallel, in the corporate world, a hostile takeover occurs when a stronger company seizes control of a weaker, underperforming firm — usually without the consent of its management — by directly appealing to shareholders.
Hostile takeovers are characterized by unsolicited bids, bypassing management, and fierce resistance from the target company’s leadership.

Some typical tactics used in hostile takeovers include:
• Tender Offers: Public offers to buy shares directly from shareholders, usually at a premium.
• Proxy Fights: Efforts to install new management by winning shareholder votes.
• Bear Hugs: Aggressive offers that pressure the target company’s board into acceptance.

There are also classic defenses against hostile takeovers:
• Poison Pills: Strategies that make the takeover financially painful for the bidder.
• White Knights: Seeking a more friendly acquirer.
• Golden Parachutes: Offering lucrative severance packages to executives to deter acquisition.

Applying these concepts to politics, the 2013 creation of the APC was similar to a business merger — parties voluntarily combined for mutual benefit.
In contrast, today’s scenario resembles a hostile political takeover: the ruling APC is absorbing members from weakened opposition parties like the PDP, without formal mergers — often without the defectors’ original leadership’s blessing.

Critics argue that this mass migration signals the alarming drift toward a one-party state, raising concerns about “state capture.”
However, I view it differently: it is part of the natural evolution of Nigeria’s democratic experiment — much like refining gold through fire.
If Nigeria never explores different governance models, how will we know whether multi-party democracy truly suits us? One-party systems have both strengths and weaknesses, just like multi-party ones.
As the saying goes, “the proof of the pudding is in the eating.” Perhaps it’s time we stop relying solely on imported democratic templates and start developing a homegrown system that fits Nigeria’s unique cultural and social realities.

While the defection of the entire PDP political structure in Delta State to the APC last Monday made a major impact on Nigerian politics, the PDP’s decline has been a long time coming. It began in 2010, after President Umaru Yar’adua’s death, only two years into his term. Vice President Goodluck Jonathan took over and eventually ran for office himself, a move seen by many as a betrayal of earlier agreements. His election sparked a revolt within the PDP, led by Atiku Abubakar, Senate President Bukola Saraki, and a handful of governors who later defected to the APC.

In a sense, history is repeating itself in 2025, with Ifeanyi Okowa — the PDP’s 2023 vice-presidential candidate — moving over to the APC, much like Atiku did before the 2015 elections. Similarly, Peter Obi, PDP’s vice-presidential candidate in 2019, defected to the Labour Party (LP) to pursue his own presidential ambition in 2023.

As Atiku plans to create a coalition to challenge President Tinubu, similar to what he helped orchestrate in 2013 against Jonathan, he must recognize that Tinubu is a much savvier political operator than Jonathan was. Tinubu appears proactive, unveiling new strategies to maintain his grip on power.
To second guess him, I
its unlikely that he has exhausted his political options yet.

Despite the economic hardships — with inflation, currency fluctuations, and economic strain — there are signs of improvement: the Dangote Refinery promises an end to fuel scarcity, inflation is moderating, foreign reserves have grown, and initiatives like NELFUND are expanding access to education by democratizing university education in the manner the sage Obafemi Awolowo offered the western region free education and put the yoruba nation ahead of all other states in terms of education.
These positive developments may be enough to sustain voter support for Tinubu and the APC into 2027.

Historically, inflation alone doesn’t determine electoral outcomes in Nigeria. Major political shifts usually stem from larger causes or organized movements. For instance, the opposition to Jonathan’s re-election was driven by perceptions of broken agreements on power rotation. Similarly, in 2023, the “Obidient” movement, fueled by discontent from the Southeast, weakened PDP’s chances, helping Tinubu emerge victorious.

Although there are signs of dissatisfaction in the North — particularly a sense of neglect despite the region delivering 62% of Tinubu’s 2023 votes — Tinubu’s political instincts may help him navigate this better than Jonathan did. His strategy seems focused on consolidating control over the southern states: Yoruba regions, the South-South, and the Southeast.

While critics point to Governor Sanwo-Olu’s inability to secure Lagos votes for Tinubu in 2023, other governors like Ademola Adeleke delivered Osun a PDP state to Atiku. Thus, having key governors on your side still matters. Now with former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, and political heavyweight James Ibori (leader of the Niger Delta region)aligned with President Tinubu, Delta State — and the wider Niger Delta — could swing towards APC in 2027.

In the South-South, other states could follow. Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Akwa Ibom’s current leadership could help flip that state too. Cross River is already under APC control. Enugu Governor Peter Mbah is cozying up to APC, hinting at a possible defection. President Tinubu’s visit and praises for him recently further suggest warming ties.

In Anambra, Governor Chukwuma Soludo (APGA) may also align with Tinubu, especially since he won’t face re-election stress after winning a second term. Similarly, Abia’s LP Governor Alex Otti, who has a strained relationship with Peter Obi and whose party is weak nationally, could also be swayed to the APC side, despite official denials.

Rivers State’s political crisis, led by the Wike-Fubara feud, could ultimately benefit Tinubu, especially now that most of Rivers’ National Assembly members have pledged support for his re-election. This political realignment across the South mirrors the 2013-2015 period, when northern politicians defected massively from PDP to APC to oust Jonathan.

Meanwhile, Imo and Ebonyi are already firmly APC, while Oyo and Osun are technically PDP but acted independently during the last election. It’s feasible that Osun, surrounded by APC states, could eventually flip too.

Overall, Tinubu appears to be managing the political chessboard masterfully. Despite ongoing challenges, he stands a strong chance of winning re-election in 2027. The forces gathering against him seem unlikely to match his political acumen or organizational strength. Unlike Jonathan, Tinubu is proving to be a far more formidable opponent.

Therefore, it’s unlikely that President Tinubu can be unseated in the same way the opposition toppled former President Jonathan in 2015. A Ugandan proverb offers some insight:
“It is survival, not bravery, that makes a man climb a thorny tree.”
The current attempt by certain politicians to form a coalition against the ruling government is a desperate bid to wrest the presidency from Tinubu in 2027.

Former Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe once posed a poignant question:
“How do you convince future generations that education is the key to success when poor graduates and wealthy criminals surround us?”
Applying this logic, how can members of the PDP and other opposition parties be persuaded to stay loyal when their parties—particularly the PDP and Labour Party, which placed second and third respectively in 2023—are in disarray?
Realistically, who would willingly stay aboard a sinking ship?

It’s fair to say Nigeria may be drifting toward a one-party system—but whether this is by design or a natural evolution is debatable. Claims that President Tinubu and the APC are orchestrating a “state capture” seem misplaced. The internal crises ravaging the PDP and LP are largely self-inflicted. Their inability to manage internal divisions has triggered an exodus, as politicians naturally seek safer ground.

While Tinubu is focused on strengthening his base in the South, where he faced challenges during the last election, he hasn’t neglected his northern supporters either. Vice President Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri from the Northeast and former governor of Borno State, still commands significant influence in the region. Moreover, Tinubu’s cabinet includes a substantial number of former governors and influential northern politicians who can help consolidate his support there.

Having secured 62% of his 2023 votes from the North, Tinubu is likely to intensify his outreach as the 2027 election approaches. He may also be counting on the positive results of his economic reforms—such as declining inflation, stabilizing forex rates, and infrastructure achievements—to sway public opinion and strengthen his position.

The mass defection of the PDP’s structure into the APC in Delta State could either stabilize or destabilize the APC locally, depending on how old and new members integrate.

Essentially, the APC is executing a hostile political takeover, similar to corporate mergers and acquisitions in business. Unlike 2013–2015, when opposition parties voluntarily merged to challenge PDP dominance, today’s defections are driven more by survival instincts than strategic planning. The politicians leaving the PDP are responding to the party’s collapse, preferring to jump ship rather than go down with it—an exodus vividly demonstrated by the mass movement from PDP to APC in Delta State.

As it stands, Nigeria appears headed toward a one-party system—another phase in its political evolution. Whether the APC will dominate for 16 years or eventually implode, (as did PDP after 16 years) leading to the emergence of new parties, remains to be seen. Political evolution in Nigeria is dynamic, unpredictable, and often mirrors natural survival patterns.

Yet, a pressing question remains: if the APC becomes the overwhelmingly dominant party, what credible alternatives exist?
Ironically, many of those trying to build a new coalition against Tinubu are themselves remnants of the fractured PDP—the very party from which people are fleeing into much like butterflies flocking to nectar, the APC.

Ultimately, if Tinubu secures a second term and exits office in 2031, the critical issue will be:
Will Nigeria’s next generation of leaders emerge ready to prioritize the nation’s interests and elevate Nigeria globally?
Or will they simply repeat the same cycles?

Is anyone out there preparing true successors who will place Nigeria first?

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, and development strategist.

Is the Doctrine of Separation of Powers Being Eroded?
Before I go into ‘the word for today’, I cannot but briefly comment on President John Mahama’s recent suspension of the Chief Justice of Ghana, Hon. Justice Gertrude Torkornoo (CJG) on allegations of misconduct. In Ghana, unlike Baron Montesquieu’s theory of Separation of Powers, the three arms of government are not co-equal. Article 57(2) of Ghana’s Constitution of 1992 (with Amendments through 1996) provides that the President takes precedence over all persons in Ghana, followed by the Vice President, the Speaker of the Parliament and then the Chief Justice. Article 146(6) of Ghana’s Constitution provides that, where there is a petition for the removal of the CJG, in consultation with the Council of State, the President will appoint a Panel of Inquiry to look into the allegations and recommend to the President whether the CJG should be removed. Also, when the petition has been referred to the Committee of Inquiry, in accordance with the advice of the Council of State, the Ghanaian President is empowered to suspend the CJG (see Article 146(10)(a) of Ghana’s Constitution).

In Nigeria, I have always maintained that we pretend that the three arms of government are co-equal, particularly as the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended)(the Constitution) doesn’t provide for a hierarchy like Ghana; but, in reality, it appears that we have adopted the same hierarchical arrangement as the one provided for in Ghana’s Constitution. The Constitution doesn’t endow the Nigerian President with the same powers of discipline that the Ghanaian President has over the CJG, with regard to the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), even though President Buhari used a warped, unconstitutional process to remove Chief Justice Walter Onnoghen. See Nganjiwa v FRN (2017) LPELR-43391(CA) per Abimbola Osarugue Obaseki-Adejumo, JCA on the discipline of a judicial officer.

Though the procedure of discipline of the CJG raises questions of the independence of their Judiciary since the Judiciary is subject to the President, for now, however, constitutionally, President Mahama appears to be standing on ‘terra firma’, but only if the allegations against the CJG are not contrived, baseless or malicious, which some have argued that they are. The President’s powers of appointment of a good number of the members of the Council of State, 3 in consultation with Parliament and 11 by himself, aside from the President of the National House of Chiefs and elected members from the various regions, also gives him a considerable amount of power in the Council of State (see Article 89 of Ghana’s Constitution). Can this power be abused?

Last week, Milwaukee Circuit Court Judge, Hannah Dugan, was arrested in her court room by FBI Agents, for allegedly allowing a man who ICE Agents were seeking to deport, to evade them. She has been released, pending arraignment for felony charges of obstruction and concealing the proposed deportee. In this case, the FBI didn’t wait for any Judicial Conduct Commission, before taking action.

Sadly, it appears that what we are seeing these days, or what the Executive may be trying to achieve, is the subjugation of the Judiciary to it in order to be able to do as it pleases, without any check or balance. This will certainly impact negatively, on the independence of the Judiciary.

“Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon and the truth.” - Buddha

Criminals are Criminals, But….
I do agree that crime is crime, and criminals are criminals; and instead of quibbling about the colour, ethnicity or religion of criminals, bringing them to justice to reduce insecurity in Nigeria should be the prime focus (see Section 14(2)(b) of the Constitution and Tanko v State (2009) LPSLR-3136(SC) per Pius Olayiwola Aderemi, JSC). However, the study of Criminology and research has shown that following trends is helpful in solving crime, and has revealed certain patterns of crime between groups of people and types of crime. Therefore, a branch of Criminology, Trend Analysis, is devoted to identification of patterns in crimes, changes in them, causes of the crimes and development of strategies to prevent same. So, for instance, if people are usually robbed in traffic on Eko Bridge, particularly in the evenings when they are going home after work, Trend Analysts will observe that pattern of crime - maybe it occurs between 5pm and 7pm on weekdays. And, if many of victims of the robberies and eye witnesses observe that, a good number of the thieves are young men who are or pose as street hawkers selling different items, would it be profiling or simply telling the truth to warn people to be careful of street hawkers on Eko Bridge, as a good number of them are really robbers, some simply masquerading as street hawkers?

Definition of Profiling
What does Profiling mean? It means different things, in different contexts. In terms of Consumer Profiling, it is used to identify the target market for certain products, purchasing trends, preferences or weaknesses in products based on purchase, or to design products for target markets. For example, research has shown that girls between age 3 and maybe 6-7 like Barbie Dolls. In the past, it used to be girls up to age 10, but, it appears that the taste of older girls may have changed. So, if Mattel Inc, the maker of Barbie still wants to target older girls, it would have to make the Barbie Doll more attractive or innovative to pique their interest.

Criminal Profiling is used by law enforcement agencies in the Western World, to ‘catch’ criminals. For instance, in the case of a suspected serial killer, there would be crime scene analyses to discover if there may be similarities or ritualistic tendencies that are common to the different crime scenes where people have been killed, which the Police would use to determine if it is the same perpetrator(s) that may have murdered the different victims (linkage profiling). There is the examination of the victims’ backgrounds, to discover if there’s any common thread that runs through them, and what attraction/hatred the perpetrator(s) may have towards them. The method of killing is also considered - was it the same; was it exceptionally brutal, thereby showing some kind of deep-seated hatred for the victims? There’s behavioural/psychological profiling created from these and other factors, to try to develop a possible physical and mental profile of the perpetrator(s), in short, to try to narrow down the scope of who the perpetrator(s) could be.

The Fulani Issue
From the foregoing description, neither the definition nor the aims and objectives of criminal profiling appear to fit into the complaints of the Fulani elite in Nigeria, that the Fulanis are being profiled because Herdsmen are being called ‘Fulani Herdsmen’, and whether Herdsmen, Kidnappers or ‘Bandits’, some of the most violent attacks in various parts of the country, particularly in Benue, Plateau and the farming communities across the country are being attributed to Fulanis. This is not profiling; it is simply ethnic identification, which is what politicians have turned everything in Nigeria into, since the advent of the Fourth Republic - most things are compartmentalised into religion, ethnicity, gender. With President Buhari, it was the Northernisation of appointments; with President Tinubu, it was Muslim-Muslim ticket and now, the Yorubanisation of appointments. Why then should we expect it to be different when it comes to crime, particularly when certain people appear to be regularly fingered in certain crimes?

In many instances, victims and eye witnesses have identified Fulanis as the attackers, and it is up to law enforcement to investigate these crimes and bring the perpetrators to justice. Certainly, it cannot be correct to conclude that all the Herdsmen in Nigeria, or those who have partaken in these criminal acts are all of the Fulani ethnic group, nor can we rule out the fact that many of them may also be criminals of other ethnic groups or even foreigners, sometimes disguised as Herdsmen, as the narrative of Government claims. Does it really matter who they are, as long as they are caught and punished? Their ethnicity is only important, if it would help to locate and apprehend them. And, it would also be absurd, for anyone to conclude that because the Herdsmen or those of the Fulani ethnic group are the main suspects in numerous violent attacks, it means that all Fulanis are violent/criminals. But, be that as it may, it would also be foolhardy to gloss over or ignore a criminal pattern that may have been identified in a particular group of people, just because some others abhor the connection or linkage.

The other day, I saw a horrific video of criminals in Imo State who had terrorised a village and surrounding environs, and were responsible for kidnappings and killings in the area. It looked like a scene in a Nollywood movie. They were also alleged to be cannibals, as a pot of Egusi soup allegedly cooked with human flesh was found in their camp. They appeared to have infiltrated law enforcement and had such credible source(s) of accurate information, that they had been able to evade the authorities for quite a while until law enforcement changed their tactics and were able to capture them. They were not Fulanis.

The Fulani or Fula ethnic group are African nomads, who are known for herding livestock across the continent. This is a fact that any African history book, or a search engine like Google will confirm. Of course, they are not the only ones who herd livestock in Nigeria. However, there have been too many accusations against them, and the public has seen many videos over the years of Herdsmen trespassing onto people’s farms to graze their cattle on their crops. I’m certainly not saying that all the Herdsmen who have partaken in these criminal acts are Fulani, nor do I rule out the fact that many of them may also be criminals disguised as Herdsmen. But, with the uncountable attacks in Benue, Plateau and other farming communities in various parts of the country over the years, Herdsmen have been accused of being responsible for many of the heinous attacks in their bid to look for places to graze their livestock.

In 2016, as Governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasiru El-Rufai, who stated that he is 87.5% Fulani, linked the killing of villagers in Southern Kaduna to a revenge/reprisal mission by Fulani Herdsmen from Niger, Mali, Chad etc (non-Nigerian Fulanis) who were caught up in the 2011 election violence in which many of them were killed, and their cattle lost. This is what Malam El-Eufai had to say in a Channels TV interview: “Cattle rustling and banditry is an essentially Fulani phenomenon. It is Fulanis, and we know where they were….Today, we have over 300 young Fulanis between age 18 and 30 in custody, for kidnapping, cattle rustling and robbery….This problem has multiple dimensions….To a large extent, we degraded cattle rustling; they moved on to kidnapping……”. Malam El-Rufai stated in the same interview that Fulani Herdsmen from other countries, migrate to Nigeria during certain seasons to graze their cattle through known grazing routes which may now no longer exist, as a result of urbanisation or farms now located along those routes. The question is, why should Nigeria be responsible for grazing routes for Malian or Guinean Herdsmen, particularly if it is detrimental to Nigerian Farmers? Shouldn’t their own governments, take up their responsibility?

In 2015, Chief Olu Falae was kidnapped on his farm in Ondo State by 6 or 7 Fulani Herdsmen, who were eventually caught, tried, convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment by an Ondo State High Court. Was Chief Falae profiling, or were the Fulani Herdsmen not responsible for his ordeal? Subsequently, Fulani Herdsmen attacked Chief Falae’s farm again, and killed one of his staff. In State v Haruna Usman, the then Kogi State Chief Judge, found 15 year old Fulani Herdsboy (about 17 at the time of conviction) guilty of culpable homicide punishable with death contrary to Section 221 of the Penal Code, and ordered his detention subject to the Governor’s pleasure. Usman had stabbed one Happy David to death, for stopping him from grazing his cattle on David’s Father’s farm at Emiworo Village, Ajaokuta.

So, what exactly do the Fulani elite mean, when they say that they are being profiled? That the public is claiming that every member of the Fulani ethnic group should be labelled as a violent criminal, or suspected to be one? I certainly do not think anyone can be saying so; and, if they are, it would be ludicrous. Should Muslims also say that they are being profiled as terrorists, because the very unIslamic Boko Haram terrorists claim to be Muslims? A friend of mine mentioned to me that there was an EFCC advertisement about fraud and 419 on television, that only featured Igbos and Yorubas. Does that mean that Igbos and Yorubas are being profiled as fraudsters, and Northerners or other ethnic groups do not commit fraud or 419? No. But, it may mean that Igbos and Yorubas may be more involved in that particular crime.

If victims and eye witnesses continue pointing fingers at Fulanis as their attackers, or victims of ‘419’ scams point to Igbos, Bendelites or Yorubas as the people that scammed them, should their observations just be ignored because their statements offend the sensibilities of others who share the same ethnic identity? Are their feelings or sensitivities, more important than the security and welfare of the thousands of Nigerians who are not only being killed, maimed and raped regularly, but driven from their farms and homes into IDP Camps? I do agree that people should not be stereotyped based on ethnicity, race etc, as this could lead to bias and discrimination (see Section 42(1)(a) of the Constitution and Lafia Local Govt v Govt, Nasarawa State & Ors (2012) LPELR-20602(SC) per Olufunlola Oyelola Adekeye, JSC), but, ignoring alleged criminal patterns instead of taking them seriously, would be detrimental to curbing whatever type of crime that requires attention.

When people say majority of the Nigerian drug traffickers caught/executed in Saudi Arabia are Yoruba, does this mean that all Yorubas who go to Saudi Arabia or all Yorubas are drug traffickers, or is it simply a fact supported by reliable statistics that they are the ones responsible for this particular crime? When they say majority of the ladies trafficked to Italy as sex workers are from the defunct Bendel State, is this borne out of reliable research and data, or is it that people just hate ladies from Bendel State and enjoy disparaging them for no reason?

Conclusion
We must move away from fruitless endeavours such as being economical with the truth, politicisation of criminality, over-dramatisation, ethnicity and this kind of general unproductive behaviour, and face this issue of insecurity squarely. For me, if the killers, kidnappers, rapists of Nigerians are from Ibadan like me, please, name them, shame them, but most importantly, apprehend them and punish them to the fullest extent of the law and curb their heinous activities. If they were called Fulani Geniuses or Yoruba Billionaires, would people complain about profiling?