The proponents of violent protests are not relenting. They have fixed August 1 to August 10 as the days of rage. They are insisting that the house must be burnt down in anger. Like W. B. Yeats’ wrote in his poem, The Second Coming, “the falcon no longer hears the falconer.” In this case, the champions of violence are not willing to listen to wise counsel. There’s a loss of order and guidance as the forces of chaos and destruction no longer heed the call of reason.

To what end are many Nigerians asking? The desire to destabilise the country has always existed. It is a combination of dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs and a penchant for chaos among certain citizens who harbour resentment for the country and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The option to cut their nose to spite their face is perplexing. Just how far does their discontent extend?

There is no denying the prevailing hardship and the weight of pain Nigerians are experiencing. However, we must also acknowledge that the foundation for the current situation was laid before this government took over on May 29, 2023. Past governments have made many bad choices over the decades, which have pushed the country precariously to the cliff edge. It is beyond reason that successive governments opted to kick the dirty can down the road, leaving it for the next guy to bell the cat.

The option we had pre-2023 elections was to go for the broke. We needed a president who could pull us away from the tipping edge and who dared to apply the necessary measures, even if that would bring temporary pains. Many Nigerians rooted for President Tinubu because he fitted the bill. He is a man of courage and conviction.

He is hands-on, always focusing on the outcomes. He has an outstanding pedigree in governance. He is a proven reformer. And he is not given to pleasing the crowd. Personalities with these attributes don’t enroll in popularity contests. They would instead do what is right. And the end always justifies them.

Reforms. Bold reforms are what Nigeria needs now. This is what the Tinubu administration has embarked on. This government has taken a number of courageous decisions aimed at revamping the economy and bringing prosperity to the citizens. We cannot achieve this in a day. Seeds take time to germinate. Hunger, however, cannot be cured by mere hope of a bountiful harvest.

But hope has its essence. It can be a springboard for patience. And patience is needed for the country to reap the fruitful outcomes of the outstanding reforms of President Tinubu’s administration. Shall we then exercise restraint? Shall we pull together at this critical period and prevent those who do not mean well for the country from burning down the barn?

WHEN two elephants fight, the grass, they say, suffers. But when cabals fight, and fight dirty like the NNPC and Aliko Dangote are doing, what happens? Dogs eat dogs and chickens gnaw at each other’s intestines. Can of worms explode in the open and cupboards full of skeletons, hitherto securely locked, are forced open. For instance, Dangote alleged that his refinery was being sabotaged by oil cabals bent on the continuation of refined petroleum products. NNPC countered that the said refinery was not yet completed and certified and that its products were inferior to imported stuff. Dangote has fired back with his Malta oil-blending allegation to support his claim that well-heeled personalities want to continue to make a killing with fuel importation at the expense of hapless Nigerians. Understandably, the stakes are high. A single write-up cannot perfectly put all the pieces together. Call it a maze, labyrinth or jig-saw puzzle and you will be right. So, here today, we take a look at some of the information available and allow our readers a better understanding of the issues at stake.

STORY NUMBER 1: In 2023, Dangote had a meeting with his select strategists for the purpose of deciding who, between Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Bola Ahmed Tinubu he should back in the February 2023 presidential election. After analyzing each candidate’s profile, merits, and demerits, the consensus was that Atiku was the best option to back.

Dangote made donations as well to Tinubu’s campaign but his body language showed he preferred Atiku… His business arch rival, Abdul Samad Rabiu of BUA Cement, pitched his tent with Tinubu and did not donate money to Atiku.Rabiu’s support was so personal that he donated his private jets for use by TInubu’s campaign. The same is said of Tony Elumelu who reportedly provided the much-needed cash for Tinubu’s camp during the ill-fated cash crunch and scarcity before the election. No wonder Tony was the first person Tinubu visited in Lagos as president-elect!

That Dangote did not support him was one of the reasons why Asiwaju stayed away when Dangote refinery was later commissioned by Buhari. The election is over. Asiwaju is the president and the chicken has come home to roost. For the first time since the return to democracy in 1999, Dangote is not the favourite of a sitting government. Rabiu and Elumelu have taken his position. The biggest casualty from the politics of Dangote is his 650,000 per day Dangote refinery.

Before Asiwaju, Dangote had an agreement with NNPC that it would invest $2 billion in Dangote refinery or, if it cannot invest in cash, it would provide crude oil worth that amount for Dangote refinery to process. This investment will give NNPC a 20% stake in the Dangote refinery. NNPC is too broke to drop $2 billion, so it chose to provide $2 billion worth of crude oil in lieu of cash. But there is a problem: Buhari, who was the president when the deal was sealed, is no longer in power. The new Whiz kid is not a fan of Dangote anymore; so the NNPC guys read the body language… NNPC, which was at the mercy of Dangote when Buhari was in charge, turned to hard nuts to crack under Tinubu.

This government is also investigating forex allocations made to Dangote when Godwin Emefiele was the CBN governor.

STORY NUMBER 2: By Taiwo Olanegan: I did not believe it when I heard that the Dangote refinery’s capacity is 650,000 barrels of oil per day. Where would the billionaire get that feed stock (crude oil) volume? Is he going to lay pipes from Escravos to Lagos? At that time, our production figure was 1.8m bpd. Would the lOC agree to sell 30% of production volume to Dangote? Where will he get the forex to buy such? And which market would receive his refined products, knowing that the FG was frenetic about making Warri and Port Harcourt refineries to work?

The oil industry is a global cartel… Nigeria’s age-long economic and security challenges are not far from the yo-yo and high-level manipulations in the global oil industry. These intrigues are intentional, international, and sometimes wicked in every sense of the word. That’s why, since 1999, almost all our presidents have added the ministerial supervision of NNPC to their job.

Oil politics is ballistic… When I gave an opinion that the recent cement scarcity and price hike was a war between Tinubu’s Kitchen Cabinet and the Dangote Group, folks shouted at me. Cement price is still high in spite of pleadings and threats by the new government. It was a battle Dangote won. But he is not going to win this new war. The powers-that-be and the international oil players are bigger and more experienced than Dangote. His romantic seasons with Goodluck Jonathan and Buhari are over! Dangote’s trade history, his file and use of forex allocated by Godwin Emefiele are with the government. This is a presidency headed by a man who knows some accounting. The figures are suspicious. Dangote would have been arraigned with Emefiele after the EFCC made attempts but the optics would be terrible for him and the government. So the government chose to put a pedal on it. However, a 650,000 bpd refinery is too large a plate for a person. How can only one fellow own a refinery that could cover the petrol needs of West Africa? What happens when he goes into steel and oil exploration?

In the September 2013 edition of Harvard Business Review, the journal warned about the consequences of allowing Dangote to keep the major stake in the proposed refinery “as it would concentrate too much power in one man’s hand”… Antitrust laws, propaganda, and outright denial of feed stock and certifications will force Dangote to the negotiation table.

 STORY NUMBER 3: NNPC VS DANGOTE REFINERY: THOSE WHO TALK DON’T KNOW THE WHOLE TRUTH AND THOSE WHO KNOW THE TRUTH WON’T TALK

In May 2021, NNPC went into marriage with Dangote Refinery (DR) by proposing to acquire 20% equity in DR. Early 2024, NNPC promised to supply crude to DR. In July 2024, Dangote alerted the public that NNPC did not own 20% in DR but 7.2%. In July 2024, Dangote accused the government of importing bad fuel into the country and that the International Oil Companies and internal forces were bent on sabotaging him. A week later, NNPC fired back that DR is not licensed and its fuel is inferior to the imported one. Hell was let loose.

What lessons can we learn? Dangote cannot complain about the system now. Why? The system has served him well in the last 30 years! The system made him emerge as the richest African alive. Dangote is a one-man cabal! But like DAEWOO in South Korea and the late MKO Abiola, you can be 99% correct in your political calculations but the day you are 1% wrong politically, the financial empire  built through political connections and manipulations will face existential threat.

This is a big lesson: It is dangerous when you have a business that is government-dependent; even though it is the easiest way in developing countries to make  MEGA money (the type that can put you on the FORBES list) through concessions, FX allocation preferential treatment, monopoly, direct printing of money by CBN and sharing of same among the elites, etc. Emefiele allegedly printed N30 trillion and a whopping 85% could not be accounted for or traced to any national projects, according to CBN auditors!

Dangote should sit down with NNPC and resolve issues amicably. Let him do what Bill Gates did when he was faced with similar huge opposition that threatened his survival.  Gates divested from Microsoft – retained only 5% – and took his cash to electricity and health business. Immediately, peace returned. It is the way the world (of business) runs. Once the wealth of the nation resides in your house, peace eludes you! Ali Baba’s experience is also instructive here. Jack Ma, China’s richest man, said: “To get rich is glorious but among the richest men in China, only a few have a good ending!”

STORY NUMBER 4: WHY NIGERIA’S REFINERIES WILL NEVER WORK  – Former President Olusegun Obasanjo

“When I was president, I invited Shell to a meeting. I told them I wanted to hand over the refineries for them to help us run. They bluntly told me they would not. I was shocked. I repeated the request and they stood their ground. When the meeting was over, I asked their big man (MD) to wait behind for a chat. Then I asked him why they were so hesitant about not taking over the refineries. He said did I want to hear the truth? I said yes. He listed four reasons. One, he said Shell makes its money from upstream and that is where its interest lies. Two, he said they only do downstream or retail as a matter of service. Three, he said our refineries would be bad business for them, that globally, companies are going for bigger refineries because of the economics of refineries. Four, he said there is too much corruption in refineries. I thanked him for his honesty. I knew we had a big problem in our hands. I had virtually given up hope on the refineries when God did a miracle. Aliko Dangote and Femi Otedola approached me and said they would be interested in buying two of the four refineries. They said they would buy 51 percent stake in Port Harcourt and Kaduna. I was over the moon. I said, finally, this burden would be taken off the neck of the government. They offered $761 million and paid in two installments. Unfortunately, Umaru (President Yar’Adua) canceled the sale and returned the refineries to NNPC. Today, we are still where we were. Someone told me Tinubu said the refineries would work by December. I told the person the refineries would not work. This is based on the information I received from Shell when I was the president”.

STORY NUMBER 5: “Dangote now feels what Nigerians with no government connections are going through in doing business”, activist Aisha Yesufu.

 STORY NUMBER 6: NIGERIA’S ONE AND ONLY GOAT IS PROVING TOO DIFFICULT FOR DANGOTE’S SNAKE TO SWALLOW:

Dangote wanted to take over NNPC assets at the dying hours of Obasanjo’s administration but President Yar’Adua thought it was not proper to hand over the nation’s assets to two individuals who wanted to buy them as scraps. Consequently, the contract was scrapped by Yar’Adua. Buhari/Emefiele came in and provided ENOUGH OXYGEN for Dangote to “complete” his own refinery and even pay 70% of his loan on a factory that was yet to refine one litre of gasoline! It was commissioned by Buhari even when it was not ready!

Meanwhile, Buhari had made substantial forward oil sales that would prevent Dangote from getting crude without breaking existing contracts. Apparently, all is not well with that project ab initio. It seems what took Dangote to the top can no longer sustain him there: i.e. MONOPOLY.  IOCs, NNPC, CBN. In 100/100 circumstances, MONOPOLY is injurious to the health of any national economy.

OLIGOPOLY is a state policy in South Korea; the State deliberately empowered some individuals like DAEWOO, SAMSUNG to create wealth. But the rule of LAW is SACROSANCT. DAEWOO, once the richest South Korean, ended in jail when he broke the law. The CEO of Samsung was sent to jail recently for breaking the law. That’s why Jack Ma (Ali Baba), China’s richest man, also ran into trouble in China. That’s why Google and Microsoft ran into trouble in the West. Monopolists (ALL OF THEM ) build their wealth through unfair exploitation of the Commonwealth…

Nigeria’s OIL BUSINESS belongs to 220 million Nigerians: It is not just a BIG GOAT but Nigeria’s ONLY GOAT. NNPC probably has realized the full implications and that’s why they refused to pay up their counterpart funding to acquire 20% equity as earlier agreed. What should Dangote do in this circumstance? He should come out publicly and sell  at least 49.5% equity to Nigerians in a transparent manner. Only he can’t swallow Nigeria’s only goat, it will CHOKE him! Even in Saudi Arabia, ARAMCO was sold to the whole world and the Saudi government became better thereafter.

STORY NUMBER 7:

I don’t think it’s in anyone’s place to advise Dangote to sell his business to the public. It is inflated and, therefore, he should keep it to himself but he should not be allowed to monopolize our common patrimony. According to experts, a 650,000 per day refinery should not cost more than $8b but he claims he built it for $19b. So, where do we start the discussion if he wants to sell to the public? It’s a single train refinery. If something goes wrong somewhere, the whole plant shuts down.

What can we make of the above and where will it all end?

The call for a Nationwide protest against hardship on Thursday, August 1st, 2024, has caused anxiety among Nigerians. There are divergent views about whether the protest should be held or not. Using what happened during the ENDSARS protests, which led to the loss of lives and properties, as a precedent, it will be difficult to predict the outcome of such a protest. There are fears it may be hijacked by hoodlums and become violent.

The question arises: how did we get here? The economic policies introduced by the administration have brought untold hardship, though they were expected to be short-term and yield long-term economic benefits for the nation. Apart from the hardship, there is also an issue of trust in the government. The current level of unease and anger among Nigerians could have been avoided if the government had handled its affairs better.

Words can start and end a war. Government officials and political office-holders should be sensitive, and avoid careless statements while communicating with the public through press interviews, press releases, social media, etc. Additionally, the Nigerian Government should match its words with actions to build trust. Also giving timelines that cannot be met should be discouraged.

The government, having promised Nigerians that their sacrifices will pay off; should also be seen to be making sacrifices and cutting costs. For example, political office holders should be encouraged to reduce the sizes of their convoys, the number of their aides, the number of foreign trips, and the size of their delegations. Flamboyance should be discouraged.

The approval by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the suspension of duties, tariffs, and taxes for the importation of certain food commodities, including husked brown rice, wheat, maize, and cowpeas through land and sea for 150 days, and the proposed importation of 250,000 metric tonnes of wheat and maize by the Federal Government should have come earlier. It is worrisome that weeks after the announcement, food prices are still soaring, as it seems full implementation of the food importation policy has not commenced.

One would have thought that a sensitive matter like a new national minimum wage would have received prompt attention from the government; and be implemented by now without the need for labour unions going on strike. The delayed approval of the new national minimum wage sent wrong signals to Nigerians, portraying the Government as indifferent to their plight. Actions speak louder than words.

Nigerians should be made more aware of the achievements of the Tinubu administration and their significance. Some major achievements include the payment of the seven billion dollars in forex backlogs, the unification of the forex market, the student loans scheme, the consumer credit scheme, and the Renewed Hope Housing scheme. Ironically, many people aware of these achievements do not understand their significance and may therefore trivialize them. The National Orientation Agency has a big role to play in this regard.

The Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative has dragged on. Nigerians still await the CNG buses promised by the Federal Government; aimed at reducing transportation costs, which have been a significant challenge. The high cost of transportation has made it difficult for people to commute to their places of work or business. It has also significantly impacted the prices of goods and services. Any government intervention that reduces transportation costs would be appreciated.

The call for a nationwide protest is understandable given the hardship Nigerians are going through, however, it should be discouraged as it may result in a worse outcome than the ENDSARS protest. The Government has once again called for patience. Do Nigerians trust the Government? The current situation calls for more patriotism from Nigerian leaders and citizens alike. The government should not wait for strikes or protests before acting appropriately.

The recent passing of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah has sparked a range of emotions across Nigeria, from grief to celebration. As a journalist and writer, I find it essential to address the reactions on social media platforms, particularly those rejoicing over his demise.

Senator Ifeanyi Ubah, who represented Anambra South in the Senate, was a multifaceted figure. His background as a businessman, politician, and philanthropist shaped his impact on society. Ubah's contributions to media, sports, and the petroleum industry were remarkable, and his commitment to community development and service cannot be overlooked.

In the digital age, social media platforms serve as powerful tools for communication, expression, and mobilization. However, they can also amplify negativity, misinformation, and inanities. When news of Ubah's death broke, some Nigerians took to social media to express their joy, labeling him a "criminal" and celebrating his demise. Such reactions raise questions about our collective values and humanity.

As Africans, particularly as Igbos, we have a rich cultural heritage that emphasizes empathy, compassion, and respect for the deceased. Celebrating someone's death, regardless of their perceived flaws, goes against these values. In Igbo culture, where communal bonds are strong, it is considered disrespectful to rejoice over someone's passing. We should remember the adage: "When one finger touches oil, it spreads to all the other fingers." Our interconnectedness demands empathy, even for those with whom we disagree.

Rather than celebrating death, we should engage in constructive dialogue. Senator Ubah's life was complex, and his legacy includes both positive and controversial aspects. Let us discuss his achievements, shortcomings, and the lessons we can learn. 

As we mourn Senator Ifeanyi Ubah's passing, let us honor his memory by promoting unity, empathy, and understanding. It is not only African but also human to recognize the value of life, even when faced with disagreements. Let us rise above negativity and celebrate our shared humanity.

In many African cultures, there exists a longstanding tradition that discourages speaking ill of the dead. This custom reflects a deep respect for those who have passed away and recognizes their inability to defend themselves or respond to criticism.

The aphorism "De mortuis nil nisi bonum", is a saying in Latin which interpretatively mean, "Of the dead, say nothing but good", and it encapsulates this belief. It emphasizes that when someone has died, it is socially inappropriate to speak negatively about such person. The phrase acknowledges that the deceased cannot justify or defend himself or herself, and therefore, it is our duty to remember the dead in a positive light.

While this tradition is not exclusive to Africa, particularly the Igbo, it holds particular significance on the continent. African societies often emphasize communal bonds, ancestral reverence, and the interconnectedness of the living and the dead.  This is as African cultures honor their ancestors, believing that they continue to influence the living. Therefore, speaking ill of the dead disrupts this connection and dishonors their memory.

In fact, some African belief systems hold that negative words about the deceased can harm the speaker or their family. It is believed that spirits can retaliate if offended. Before burial, it is customary for people to settle any debts, both financial and emotional, with the deceased. This practice ensures a peaceful transition for the departed soul.

Without a doubt, the recent death of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah highlights the complexity of this tradition. While some dignitaries across the country are already calling for cherishing Ubah's contributions, others are remembering his alleged controversial legacy, which to this writer is unkind to the just departed soul. Unarguably, Ubah's actions during his earthly journey sparked both admiration and criticism, making it challenging for some Nigerians, particularly those of Igbo extracts, to reconcile their feelings about his passing.

In African, particularly in Igbo tradition in this context, speaking ill of the dead is more than a social norm; it reflects a profound understanding of life, death, and our interconnectedness. While opinions may differ, this tradition reminds us to approach the deceased with empathy and respect, allowing their memory to endure positively.

It is sad that in our modern era of social media that the instinct to speak ill of the dead often prevails. However, the ancient aphorism "De mortuis nil nisi bonum", "Of the dead, say nothing but good", reminds us to exercise restraint. This is as the saying acknowledges that both revered and reviled public figures will eventually pass away. It is a reminder of our shared humanity and the fleeting nature of life.

While we cannot predict if our words will reach mourning family or friends, the custom encourages us to be mindful of their grief. Even wicked figures had loved ones who mourned their deaths.

To this writer’s view, it could have been sensible if those who are rejoicing over Ubah’s death refrain from expressing disdain in public immediately after his passing, to later engage in honest discussions about his legacy. In a world where opinions clash, this ancient wisdom invites us to pause, reflect, and find common ground even when discussing those who've left us.

One of the expectations of column writing is that it will not just advance the journalistic goals of educating, informing and entertaining the society, but also serve as a watchdog for both the government and the governed. This role of surveillance to check developments that could tear the society apart is, probably, the most important of all the expectations from both professional and occupational journalists, especially in a developing country like Nigeria.

Trouble has a habit of sleeping until rudely stirred. Only those who have never really experienced anarchy or war talk glibly about the deployment of violence to advance any cause. Anyone who has ever truly participated in protest marches in the real tradition of grievance ventilation knows that there is a world of difference between a march for a cause and a march on a city.

If you have ever been in the trenches as some of us have, you won’t have any problem drawing a line: Thus far and not an inch further!

Protests Legitimate

For the avoidance of doubt, protests are legitimate. We all have a right to demonstrate against anything we consider inimical to our wellbeing. It is a fundamental human right; no less. It has been said over and over again that President Tinubu himself was a veteran protester both during military rule and the current 4th Republic. Having enjoyed that fundamental right, he shouldn’t be seen denying others of the same entitlement.

The president’s men say that he believes in allowing people to express themselves as long as that can be done peacefully. In other words, the authorities want the protesters to note the undercurrents attending this intended demonstration which point to the fact that some other agenda — notably regime change — is already being smuggled into the mix by fifth columnists and opposition elements with partisan political agenda.

Speaking when he received the new US ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Richard Mille Jr, President Tinubu acknowledged his past role as a notable protester: ”During the military era, we made our voices heard against dictatorship, and I was part of the group that engaged in peaceful protests without resorting to the destruction of property. As much as we believe that demonstrations are part of democracy, we will never encourage any protests that lead to the destruction of lives and property.”

There is ample evidence on social media that some groups, with violence as their main weapon, are battle ready to cause mayhem under the pretext of the #EndBadGovernance protest. Their online meetings have been freely circulated, perhaps to encourage fence sitters to join in. If their words are to be taken seriously — and there’s no reason why not— they are primed for violence. Many of the instigators are overseas but they have pledged to foot the bill of the proposed insurrection.

Civilian Coup

One of the arrogant rabble-rousers in an online meeting actually boasted that by the time they are through with the insurrection, they would have got rid of the democratic dispensation and installed a ‘clean and politically neutral’ leader in the country — a civilian coup!

Now, no government in the world will sit idly by while a group of disgruntled people plan its forceful exit through the instrumentality of anarchy.

A protest is a far cry from a riot. When a civil protest is infiltrated by faceless war mongers, the protesters themselves are in danger of being caught in the crossfire. Considering that the key conveners of the proposed August days of rage are not known, unlike the situation in ‘normal’ demonstrations where the leaders and their agenda are well advertised, many social media influencers who had earlier signed on, have now withdrawn their participation.

Fears have been expressed that if the protest is allowed to degenerate to the anarchical level of the #ENDSARS campaign in which criminal elements hijacked what had started out as a beautiful celebration of the culture of civil resistance, Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos, will be further reduced to a modern jungle of ruins after the billion dollar damages inflicted on the city in the earlier demonstration from which it is yet to fully recover.

Ethnic Baiting

Then there is palpable evidence of ethnic baiting in comments made by those in favour of the protest and those against. As usual in such situations in Nigeria, some groups of people have already been marked down by their political opponents in the event that the handshake goes beyond the elbow. Mark my words, if push turns to shove, we shall be dealing with cases of ethno-religious cleansing in some parts of the country.

I don’t find the announcement of an ‘Oro’ cult festival  intended to ‘cleanse the land’ on exactly the same dates as the planned protests funny at all. When ‘Oro’ eats, there are no leftovers. Remember the case of Alfa Bisiriyu Apalara (1918-1953), a fiery Islamic preacher who clashed with the Oro cult in Lagos in the early 1950s? He suddenly disappeared. To this day, the cleric’s body has never been found, although the authorities used circumstantial evidence to convict and hang the 11 perpetrators of the crime.

Anything that will make society regress to such savage means of silencing opponents should not thrill any rational human being. Unfortunately, we seem to find it all theatrical, even hilarious. But I insist that we must not give room to such developments because they are designed to rend the cord of amity between man and fellow man.

In their bid to find a deeper meaning in their planned protest, some of the identifiable activists supporting the demonstration have declared that it is not just another protest but a revolution! Former presidential candidate Omoyele Sowore is of that persuasion. My dictionary defines ‘revolution’ as, “A forcible overthrow of a government or social order, in favour of a new system.” I am not sure that a democrat will want to take power by force as a preferred alternative to the ballot box.

Those advocating Kenya-style perpetual sit-out protests make the mistake of wrong equivalency. The lizard and the crocodile may both be reptiles but, whereas one is a staff sergeant, the other is an admiral. There are many things to admire and learn from the Kenyan protests just as there were many lessons from the last #ENDSARS protests in Nigeria. But you can’t transplant one into the other. Each clime with its own spirit and vibes and peccadilloes. If I may borrow a line from Afrobeat superstar Asake, “Ogogoro no be Vodka!”

Combustible

There is so much tension caused by economic hardship in Nigeria at the moment that many people are just one inch away from blowing a fuse. If any kind of anarchy is added to the mix, you’re going to have a really combustible situation that could easily degenerate into mini gang warfares or full scale tribal wars.

To douse tension, the president has been consulting widely and massively publicising measures already taken by the government to address the concerns of the youthful protesters. Traditional rulers, religious leaders, political bigwigs and captains of industry have added their voices to appeal to the protesters to cancel the protest so as not to start what they may not be in a position to finish.

‘Revolutionary’ images from other lands, featuring fire-spitting youthful leaders and clips of internally displaced people may look fascinating because they’re from afar. If those images reflect our local circumstances, there may not even be a columnist to write about it. That is why I have taken the liberty to adapt Gil Scott-Heron’s song as a melody and prayer: This revolution shall not be televised.

Hours after Inspector General of Police Kayode Egbetokun issued guidelines for the planned nationwide #EndBadGovernance protest scheduled for August 1, opposition parties have kicked against the conditions, saying they are against Nigeria’s constitution.

They insisted that the right to protest is recognised as a fundamental human right in Nigeria and is protected by the constitution.

Egbetokun had in response to requests to protest across the country set guidelines for all organisers and groups planning to participate.

He specifically directed them to submit their details, proposed routes, and assembly points to the Commissioners of Police in their respective states. 

The IG also said commissioners of police in states where protests would be held must be provided with details of measures put in place to prevent the demonstration from being hijacked by criminal elements.

The police chief  had earlier raised concerns about the legitimacy of the gathering, adding that arrangements had been made to arrest suspected hoodlums disguising as protesters.

The Department of State Services, on the other hand, claimed it uncovered a plan by some criminal elements to hijack the protest and cause unrest in the country.

In a statement issued on Thursday, the DSS, through its spokesperson, Peter Afunanya, described the motive behind the planned protest as political.

The Nigerian Defence Headquarters also warned intending protesters against any form of violence, stating that the right to protest did not include unleashing terror.

The Director of Defence Media Operations, Major General Edward Buba, who conveyed the message in Abuja, raised concerns that the planned nationwide protest could escalate into chaos based on the military’s analysis and intelligence.

Concentrate on protecting protesters – NNPP

Speaking exclusively with Sunday PUNCH, the National Publicity Secretary of the New Nigeria People’s Party, Ladipo Johnson, said going after protesters was a violation of their constitutional right. He said instead of clamping down on those legitimately exercising their civic rights, efforts should be made to protect them.

Johnson said, “I don’t think there is a need to clamp down on protesters. Nigerians have a right to exercise their constitutional right to protest. They should not be harassed in any way. On the other hand, protesters must do their best to ensure that the protest is not hijacked either by hoodlums or by people sent. Hoodlums are one thing, people sent by unscrupulous politicians to cause friction and mayhem are another. These people should be resisted. The police also must secure the protesters in a peaceful atmosphere and ensure they are not infiltrated by people who want to cause chaos and damage properties. That is what they should be doing, not threatening or scaring people.”

PDP not surprised by threats to gag opposition – Spokesman

Also, the Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the People’s Democratic Party, Ibrahim Abdullahi, said it was unfortunate that the presidency would be planning to use the security apparatus to intimidate its citizens.

He said, “What you see the police and the DSS doing is a prepared script. It is quite unfortunate. The attempt by the government to suppress the voices of dissent is not something we are surprised about because they had demonstrated this long before. They made it known before coming into power that they wouldn’t entertain opposition. So, what they first did was to take some persons they believed were going to have a voice and make them part of their team. Now, even after winning the election, they have not stopped. It is clear that the intention of this government is to inflict maximum pain and injury on Nigerians and suppress voices of dissent, who will probably raise objections to their approach. They have inflicted untold hardship on Nigerians. They have also gone further to ensure that fear and intimidation is the only way they would rule this country.”

Tinubu should tread carefully – LP

Similarly, the opposition Labour Party has advised the presidency and security agents to tread carefully, warning that any threat to clamp down on the people may prove counterproductive.

In an exclusive with Sunday PUNCH, the National Publicity Secretary of LP, Obiorah Ifoh, said the country should borrow a leaf from what transpired in neighbouring Kenya, and the government’s response to the people.

He said, “As a party, we are not going to support any violent protest. We are not speaking for them (protesters). But a hungry man is an angry man. These people can’t feed, transport freely, can’t even afford to send children to school and receive pittance as wages. Yet, you want them not to talk? I think that is undemocratic. We saw what happened in Kenya a few weeks ago, where people spoke their minds peacefully and the Kenyan government did the right thing. Nobody is asking for violence. Everybody that goes into violent protests should be made to pay the price. But we are insisting on allowing Nigerians to speak up their minds through peaceful means.”

Yunusa Tanko, the campaign spokesman for LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, on his part, said Nigerians deserved better treatment. The activist emphasized that it would be unfair to threaten people planning to demonstrate with arrest as protest is one of the rights provided for in a democratic setting.

Accusations against opposition insult to Nigerians – Northern CAN

The Christian Association of Nigeria in the 19 Northern states, including Abuja, says the planned nationwide hunger protests are an indication that things have gone really bad in the country. CAN insisted that Nigerians have been “suffering and smiling” for too long and the government showed no concern.

In a statement through its Secretary, Elder Sunday Oibe, in Kaduna on Saturday, the body expressed concern over the planned nationwide protest and urged the President to take concrete steps to address the economic hardship and insecurity plaguing the country. It also admonished Nigerian politicians to be mindful of their actions and inactions.

CAN recalled the ‘Occupy Nigeria’ protest held in 2012, led by President Tinubu, meant to force former President Goodluck Jonathan to retrace his steps over the removal of the petrol subsidy during his administration, and noted that those in government must acknowledge the fact that in a democracy, citizens had the right to embark on peaceful protests over issues affecting their welfare. “Rather than trying to induce and influence some religious and traditional leaders to stop the protest, as it is being speculated in certain quarters, the government should apologise for its ineptitude and failure to address challenges threatening the very foundation of the country and improve the living condition of the people. Since the removal of the subsidy on petrol by President Bola Tinubu over a year ago, Nigerians have yet to enjoy its benefits; insecurity continues to remain undermined by the Nigerian state. We call for prayers for peace, unity, and stability in our country. Pray for God’s intervention in our country,” the Northern CAN stated.

‘Security agencies harassing organisers’

Meanwhile, in a telephone interview with our correspondents, one of the organisers of the protest, Deji Adeyanju, said the IG was trying to rewrite the constitution with his directives.

The human rights activist maintained that Nigeria’s constitution conferred on citizens the right to protest.

He said, “When the constitution was conferring the right to protest on the citizens, did the constitution give conditions for protests? Is the IG trying to rewrite the constitution? Is he trying to donate rights to the citizens or what? He has no such powers. The constitution and other laws of the land do not give the IG the power to dictate how citizens should protest.”

Further speaking, Adeyanju accused security agencies of harassing organisers of the protest and freezing their accounts.

He revealed that some of them had been arrested in states like Kano, Sokoto, and Zamfara, only to be released after widespread condemnation and outcries.

The human rights activist noted that it was a tactic to intimidate them so as not to go ahead with the protest, adding that they remained resolute.

Speaking in the same vein, the Director of Mobilisation, ‘Take It Back Movement’, Damilare Adenola, emphasised that the organisers were not bound by the directives.

He said, “The constitution doesn’t mandate us to get the government’s approval for protests. With or without the minister or President’s approval, the protests will go on. We’re not bound by the dictates of the Inspector General of Police or anyone in government.

“The rule of law and our conscience are our guiding principles, and the Nigerian Constitution (1999 as amended) grants Nigerian citizens the right to peaceful assembly and peaceful demonstrations.”

Adenola alleged that aside from freezing the organisers’ accounts, social media influencers had been engaged to attack activists and those who indicated interest in the protest.

He added, “They’ve blocked the ‘Take It Back Movement’ bank account with UBA. We’ve been informed that they’re now paying social media influencers to discredit human rights activists and peaceful protesters.”

Also making his stance known on the IG directive, the Convener of the Revolution Now Movement, Mr Omoyele Sowore, on X.com, said the police could not dictate to citizens how to go about protests.

He, however, called on all security agencies to submit the names of their officers who would be deployed for the protest.

Sowore stated, “The #EndBadGovernanceInNigeria #DaysOfRage revolt is not subject to any conditions; the @PoliceNG cannot dictate to Nigerians how to organise themselves during a mass action of this magnitude. However, the IG of @Policeng is advised to submit the list of police officers that would be deployed to cover these direct actions to our lawyers so that we’d know who to hold accountable should anything go wrong; the same applies to the @OfficialDSSNG, @HQNigerianArmy, and any security agency(IRS) that may be deployed by the state or federal government of Nigeria.”

Shelve planned protest – Kwankwaso

The presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party during the 2023 election, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, said shelving the planned protest would be in the interest of the country. The one-time former governor of Kano State, in a post on his X handle on Saturday, called on Nigerians to put the country’s interest first before any other consideration. The national leader of NNPP called on Nigerians to remove a non-performing government through the ballot rather than through a protest.

Tinubu’s govt after solution, not protesters – APC

But the ruling All Progressives Congress sees the issue from another perspective.

The National Publicity Director of the APC, Bala Ibrahim, believed the response of the government was being misinterpreted.

Ibrahim stated that unless the organisers of the protest and the opposition had ulterior motives, they would appreciate that the President had even gone the extra mile to assure the citizens that he was working assiduously to address their concerns.

He said, “When you are devilish in your thinking or planning something cynical, you will believe everybody is thinking that way. There is no way a government that is doing everything with civility, and is always at the forefront for human rights, will clamp down on people fighting for their right.

“This is not a government that is brutish or brutal when it comes to lawful protests. The only thing is that a protest must be peaceful, lawful and done in a manner that is democratically accepted. Anything to the contrary will go against the law. A government that is law-abiding will not fold its arms and allow people trample on the law.

“Don’t forget that the President has appealed to the nation to shelve the demonstration, saying whatever their grievances are, it will be looked into with a view to resolving them. It is not a government that has promised to do miracles. No, it is one that seeks to ensure the sufferings of Nigerians are addressed.”

[Punch]

Lorenzo Colombo scored two first-half goals and Marco Nasti netted the game-winner to give AC Milan a 3-2 victory over English Premier League champion Manchester City on Saturday at New York.

Nasti lifted Milan ahead to stay in the 78th minute, the 20-year-old Italian striker taking a centering pass from Belgian right wing Alexis Saelemaekers and firing an inside right foot blast into the goal.

Several European sides are playing pre-season tune-ups in US venues ahead of next month’s start of their league campaigns.

Norwegian striker Erling Haaland opened the scoring for Manchester City in the 19th minute, but Italian forward Colombo answered for AC Milan in the 30th and 34th minutes to lift the Italian side ahead 2-1 at half-time at Yankee Stadium.

City equalized in the 55th minute when Manchester hometown winger Micah Hamilton crossed the ball from the left side into the box.

English striker James McAtee headed the ball into the net, setting the stage for Nasti’s decider.

At Los Angeles, Gabriel Martinelli scored for Arsenal in the 81st minute to give the Gunners a 2-1 victory over Manchester United in a friendly at SoFi Stadium.

Danish 21-year-old striker Rasmus Hojlund opened the scoring in the 10th minute for United.

Marcus Rashford lofted a clearing pass down the left wing and Hojlund took the ball and battled Arsenal defender Ayden Heaven into the box, where he got a step ahead and blasted a goal between the legs of Gunners goalkeeper Karl Hein.

Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus netted the equalizer in the 26th minute, the Brazilian tapping in a centering pass from point-blank range as the Red Devils appealed in vain for an offside call.

Martinelli, who helped Brazil to Tokyo Olympic gold, came in from the left side and flicked in a right-footed shot inside the near post to give Arsenal the winning margin.

– Celtic rip Chelsea –

Earlier, Japan’s Kyogo Furuhashi and Denmark’s Matt O’Riley scored first-half goals to power Celtic over Chelsea 4-1.

Luis Palma and Michael Johnston added second-half goals for the Glasgow side, while Christopher Nkunku averted a shutout for the Londoners with an 89th-minute penalty kick.

Celtic, who beat Man City 4-3 on Tuesday, dominated the match at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana.

Celtic seized the lead in the 19th minute on O’Riley’s left-footed blast from the right side of the box inside the far post.

An unguarded Furuhashi tapped in a left-footed shot in the 33rd minute from point-blank range off a centering pass from O’Riley to give the Scottish side a 2-0 advantage at half-time.

Honduran striker Palma boosted the lead in the 76th minute and Johnston netted the Hoops’ final goal in the 79th.

AFP

The youths plan a public protest. The land has been feverish with hunger and suffering.  The grounds for a protest can’t be more legitimate and compelling. The cost of living has become punishing.

The weak naira has pauperised everyone, and the poor have been left without hope. The new government arrived with the old cluelessness. Its mode is the boring Business As Usual.

The youths believe that besides pervasive ineptitude, the political class has been chronically aloof and wasteful. Rather than engage the youths, the political class has opted for scaremongering, delegitimisation and demonisation. The government is going for the kitchen sink.

The most troubling tactic is the equation of peaceful protest with violence. Some elders have been co-opted to warn the young not to partake in the protests because they have information that the planners of the protests want to burn the country. Even during the military regimes, students were allowed to protest. The military dictatorships, striving to be seen as humane, didn’t employ this disingenuous tactic.

If every government treated public protests as inevitably destructive then the citizens’ right to protest would have been effectively abolished long ago. It’s heart-wrenching to see politicians and former Rights activists who championed protests under the military say only ugly things about the right to protest. Their forgetfulness is painful. They are carefreely painting protesters as arsonists and vandals even before the protests have started.

 It’s been a hard watch these last few days. Security agencies have been addressing press conferences to warn protesters. Those whose duty it is to protect protesters are announcing in advance that they are incapable of performing those duties. The situation is pathetic. At these press conferences, no effort is made to give the protesters the benefit of the doubt. Almost all the security agencies have exhibited a blanket disdain for protesters. Rather than engage in this shameful and self-humiliating scaremongering, the federal government should outlaw the right to protest. In North Korea, nobody can protest. That’s a more honest path. Politicians are always slippery. So seeing self-anointed progressives eulogise the right to protest in one breath and in the next send out messages that protests will destroy the country isn’t all that shocking.  But watching noblemen sink into barefaced lying to deny the youths a voice has been unbearable.

It hasn’t stopped at scaremongering. When the government isn’t gathering and persuading traditional and religious leaders to help it delegitimise protests, it’s allowing its officials to engage in naked bigotry and divisiveness. Not long ago, a special adviser to the president pointed accusing fingers at Peter Obi and his supporters. He had no evidence. All he sought was to drive a wedge between ethnic groups to have the protests truncated. The people paid with taxpayers’ funds to promote national unity have sunk into political skulduggery. This recourse to political agbeorism may not end with fishing for advance scapegoats. It has the potential to set up a conflagration between ethnic groups if the peaceful protests are hijacked and derailed by thugs, as is being speculated.

Before this government, opposition parties used to champion or promote public protests against bad governance at the centre. In 2012, President Tinubu and his comrades led pretests against the then President Jonathan, who had partially removed fuel subsidies. Then, it was the duty of the opposition, acting as an electable alternative, to use protests to keep the ruling government in check. Today,  protests are taboo. Even opposition leaders are forbidden by bigots in the boys’ quarters of power to engage in any protests.

Nothing has been spared in this attempt to stop the protests. Now, some local priests in Lagos have announced that they will be engaging in a spiritual cleansing called Oro for 15 days. In other words, they have casually outlawed any movements in the evenings for the ten-day period the planners of the protests plan to engage in peaceful protests. The Lagos State Govt has said it wasn’t consulted. Yet, it doesn’t intend to condemn or stop the Oro priests. The Constitution explicitly states that citizens have the right to reside wherever they like and to move freely. Such a constitutional right can only be curtailed by the government in pursuit of overriding public good. The idea that some priestesses or cults can wake up and declare a part of the state out of bounds to residents at certain times without the approval of the state government is ridiculous. To employ such arbitrariness to sabotage the right of free citizens to protest against bad governance is the final descent into anarchy.

These bad precedents being laid cheerfully may seem innocuous. But once they prove effective, they will be exploited on a larger scale to destroy our democracy. It’s noteworthy that Oro is making a second ignoble entrance. During last year’s elections, it was used to scare away and disenfranchise voters who were not indigenes of Ikorodu. This time, it appears it will be used to undermine the protests. Who knows what next this cleansing process might be used to corrode? If some local priests in every town in this country can wake up and prohibit the movement of people as long as they like in the name of one religion or the other, then we are in a mess.

During the Endsars protest, some agents of that government mobilised counter-protesters with cudgels to chase and hound protesters in certain parts of the country. Janjaweed style. They called it fighting fire with fire. If those who protested against the  Obasanjo government in the early 2000s were chased away by machete-wielding thugs, all those protests that shaped our political culture during the Adams Oshiomhole NLC days wouldn’t have held. Perhaps we might have killed this protest culture many years ago. Perhaps the ruling APC might have remained in the opposition forever as the PDP had bragged.

 If our political leaders no longer believe that protests are part of the democratic culture, they should say it aloud. So that everybody can allow the country to slip into a one-party state, and we all watch peacefully to see where we will end. Since our political leaders now think that protests can never be peaceful and are inherently violent, they should outlaw protests so that the citizens can understand the boundaries of our democracy. We can help them by forgetting that the president and his party leaders led protests in the past. They need not subject themselves to this dehumanising level of hypocrisy. Senator Akpabio can arrange laws and constitutional amendments, like fast food. The governors run the state legislatures like rubber stamps. So they can help with a lightning constitutional alteration.  We can quickly amend the constitution and repeal the right to protest until further notice. That is more honest than the scaremongering, shameless witch-hunting, and the bastardisation of a cleansing process like Oro.