Disasters could be man-made like civil unrest, wars, pollution or natural like floods, erosions, landslides and earthquakes. The recent flood disaster in Maiduguri ravished the city and caused monumental damage. Many lives and property were lost, with many people are yet to find their loved ones. There are also fears of a major disease outbreak. The flood highlights the need for Nigeria to shift to a more proactive emergency management system which involves paying more attention to the mitigation, and preparedness. Effective emergency management goes beyond just announcing the possibility of a disaster occurring and distributing reliefs when they occur.

Mitigation aims to reduce the likelihood or impact of disasters . It involves measures such as having early warning system in place restricting development in high-risk areas, promoting proper waste disposal to prevent blockages in drainage systems, ensuring people don’t build on water ways, fortifying infrastructure like dams, reinforcing critical structures, preventing deforestation to curb erosion, gathering intelligence to identify and address underlying grievances that may lead to civil conflicts. Preparedness involves having comprehensive response plans, training personnel, and having all the resources in place to respond to emergencies. It requires agility. For example, since there were warning signals about the flood in Maiduguri, plan should have been in place to evacuate people living in high risk areas to safe camps.

Better funding, coordination, collaboration and information exchange among key stakeholders, including the National Emergency Management Agency, State Emergency Management Agencies, local authorities, Fire Services, NIMET, and Security Agencies, are essential for a more proactive effective management system in Nigeria. It is imperative to involve Professional Project Managers to ensure objectives are met.

There is need for robust data gathering and analysis to enable effective identification of vulnerabilities. risk assessment and streamlining mitigation and response strategies. Nigeria should embrace the use of more technology in emergency management as the use of advanced tools like Geographical Information Systems, remote sensing, predictive modelling improve hazard monitoring and early warning capabilities.

The flood in Maiduguri has highlighted the need to rejig Nigeria's emergency management system to be more proactive and agile in order to significantly reduce the risk of occurrence and impact of disasters. It involves a holistic approach, by ensuring proper town planning, carrying out integrity test on critical infrastructures like dams and fortifying when necessary, having early warning signal and evacuation plans, etc. Enough of the avoidable loss of lives and properties in Nigeria.

The fact that the price of petrol can drop if the value of the Naira appreciates should not surprise an accountant like President Bola Tinubu.  The inverse relationship of the value of the Naira and the price of petrol happens because, petroleum, described as an “international citizen,” is largely traded with the American dollar.

You may have observed that the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited took pains to convert the price of the first consignment of petrol it bought from Dangote Refinery from Naira to the American dollar, the current store of the value of practically all currencies of the nations of the world.

The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria recognised this obvious relationship, and suggested that local refiners, like Dangote Refineries, can bring the price of petrol down to N550 if the Central Bank of Nigeria pegs the exchange rate to N1000 to the American dollar.

Therefore, the quartet of President Tinubu, Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, and Yemi Cardoso, Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, must find a way to strengthen the Naira.

Obviously, an increased inflow of the dollar, that the sale of petroleum should bring to Nigeria, will provide foreign exchange to service Nigeria’s foreign loans, as well as pay for the importation of petroleum products that fuel the transportation system and power Nigeria’s economy.

But one must admit there is a challenge to trying to strengthen the Naira, because Nigeria is essentially an import-oriented economy that has little or no control over the mechanisms used for tweaking currency exchange.

The odds are stacked against Nigeria’s quest to strengthen the Naira. But if the Naira is not strengthened, the price of petroleum products will continue to rise through the roof. And that has significant negative impact on headline inflation and purchasing power of Nigerians.

China, Japan, Russia and many of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries led by America and Britain, produce most of what they consume. Bar members, in Central and Eastern Europe, OECD countries also have the technological, financial and managerial capacity to manufacture machineries and

Of course, they import exotic foreign consumer goods too. But they have enough to spend on those luxury items, and the net effect of the volume of such imports make no significant impact on their currency’s exchange rate. They have positive net trade balance.

In fact, countries like America and China deliberately devalue their currencies, so that the excess they produce for export can be considered relatively cheap and affordable by consumers in other countries that import from them.

That is the model prescribed by Adam Smith in his seminal book, “The Wealth of Nations,” published in 1776, which, incidentally, was the same year that America’s revolutionary Declaration of Independence was written.

But one must point out that, by consigning Third World countries, like Nigeria, into the role of net exporters of primary agricultural and mineral commodities, and net importers of consumer produce, the metropolitan economies have permanently institutionalised trade imbalance against poor Third World countries.

This is how this evil plan works: By importing cheap unprocessed agricultural and mineral commodities from Third World countries, and exporting more expensive processed products to them, the metropolitan economies always have surplus from the transactions. Processed products sell higher than unprocessed primary commodities.

Nigeria earns less by sending crude petroleum to foreign refineries, and pays more for refined petroleum products. To the cost of processing in metropolitan economies that have high cost of living, you must add the accompanying landing costs –of shipment in and out of Nigeria– of the petroleum products.

These are some of the issues that Governor Cardoso of CBN must contend with, especially in a situation where, over the years, the fiscal and macroeconomic policies were either unavailable, inappropriate or ineffectual. Even now, the economic team is still grappling with deciphering the magnitude of Nigeria’s economic quagmire.

Indeed, the team is desperately trying to articulate appropriate policy solutions to combat the degradation of the economy. To borrow a phrase, from the streets, to describe the overwhelming nature of the situation, “Water don pass gari.”

The CBN must firmly resist giving Ways and Means loans to the government, and hold Minister Edun to his word that the Federal Government has “exited Ways and Means” loans template. This should appreciably help CBN’s efforts to curb headline inflation that directly affects cost of living. By the way, Nigeria Bureau of Statistics recently reported that headline inflation dropped two months in a row.

It is a good thing that the CBN is encouraging the Federal Government to repay the accumulated Ways and Means loan, even if it is in piecemeal tranches. It reduces government loan servicing encumbrances and frees government revenues for infrastructural, other developmental and social service purposes.

But the Minister of Finance must play a more strategic role in the quest to raise the value of the Naira: He should prepare an annuity plan so that a portion of government’s loan principals is paid, in piecemeal, alongside the loan servicing payments, to Nigeria’s foreign lenders especially.

He should then talk to Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, one of his illustrious predecessors, to explore possibilities of approaching the foreign creditors to consider forgiving Nigeria’s debt after paying an agreed portion.

The first plan should convince the creditors that Nigeria is willing to service its debt and also end the binge. Also, they would thus be willing to forgive a portion of the loan. After all, payments made toward servicing the debts must have exceeded the loan principals.

Recently, The Punch Newspaper reported the cheery news that the World Bank acknowledges that Nigeria is prompt in servicing as many as 69 loans it had gotten from the beginning of this Fourth Republic.

Standard & Poor’s rating for Nigeria’s debt, currently a positive B- outlook, should improve. While Moody’s has rated Nigeria a Caa1, with a positive outlook, Fitch Ratings also assigned Nigeria a B rating with a stable outlook. This suggests that Nigeria is in a good stead, if the denizens of International Monopoly Capital do not throw another devilish spanner in the works.

When Nigeria has very little foreign debt portfolio, the need to scramble for the dollar, or any other convertible currency, to service its loan, is eliminated or considerably reduced. This takes away the immense pressure on the Naira and thus shore up its value.

The Minster of Petroleum Resources, who is also the President, and his Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, must initiate credible strategies to curb oil bunkering and increase Nigeria’s petroleum production to somewhere north of the promised 2 million barrels per day.

Dangote Refinery and other local refineries should be encouraged to earn more foreign exchange by selling their products across the West and Central African regions, but at the price it is sold in the country with the lowest price.

The economic management team must take unusual corrective steps to revive Nigeria’s economy. After all, he that is down needs fear no fall. The government that adopted the unusual policy of selling petroleum to (at least) domestic refineries for Naira must not hesitate to adopt other innovative policies.

France World Cup winner Raphael Varane on Tuesday announced his retirement from football at the age of 31.

Former Real Madrid and Manchester United center-back Varane had joined Italian club Como for this season but was then excluded from their Serie A squad having suffered a knee injury in August.

“A new life begins off the pitch,” Varane said on social media.

“I will remain with Como. Just without using my boots and shin pads.

“Something I am looking forward to sharing more about soon,” the four-time Champions League winner added.

AFP

The Stakeholders Consultative Forum on Emerging Technologies which held in Lagos on September 19, 2024, as a precursor to the coming of WIFI 6, has animated industry discussions on the beautiful shape of things to come. It is a new world out there and the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) with necessary approvals from the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), has planned to formally introduce the technology to the nation but not before following its long laid down procedure of public consultation.

The forum was themed, “The Use of GHz (5925-7125)MHz for WiFi 6 and IMT applications in Nigeria”.

Engr Abraham Oshadami, Executive Commissioner, Technical Services (ECTS), who stood in for Dr Aminu Maida, Executive Vice Chairman (EVC) of the NCC, called the gathering a tradition which provides a platform for the regulator to consult with operators, investors, customers and other relevant stakeholders to examine, share and constructively exchange ideas to ensure optimal utilisation of the benefits of the Spectrum to achieve regulatory excellence and operational efficiency.

There was so much to talk about, especially the significance of deploying WiFi 6 in the lower band 6GHz Spectrum Band, specifically between the range 5925 and 6425 MHz. WiFi 6 represents a quantum leap in wireless technology as it offers the opportunity to support more devices with faster speed and greater reliability.

The regulator told its audience that the development is “particularly very strategic in a world increasingly dominated by the Internet of Things (IoT), where everything, from smart homes to advanced industrial systems, depends on robust wireless connectivity. The deployment in the lower 6GHz is not just about faster Internet, it’s about enabling the next generation of technological innovation and economic growth.”

For the industry people who are used to paying for nearly everything they get from the regulator, including services, this may sound like strange music. Engr Gbenga Adebayo, the ALTON President, told this writer within the week, that WiFi 6 is a positive development for the industry. It presents a win-win situation where everybody benefits as it will impact easy deployment, availability and cost, even as more and more devices get connected. It is obviously a good turn for the industry, he observed.

The taste of the pudding, they say, is in the eating. So, NCC, when is WiFi 6 coming on stream? Our much maligned younger generation will be interested in the answer. Or will this be another story of Waiting for Godot?

In Nigeria, it is an all-too-familiar story: a politician campaigns with bold promises, rallies the hopes of the people, and once elected, the narrative shifts. The pledges made to the electorate fade into the background, overshadowed by the influences of political godfathers or internal party struggles. Many politicians, after securing office, appear more focused on maintaining loyalty to those who put them in power or engaging in conflicts that detract from real governance. The people, left with unfulfilled promises, are often sidelined. But Monday Okpebholo has an opportunity to change this pattern in Edo State. 

Okpebholo, Governor-elect, ahead of the running of the next governance dispensation in Edo State, must understand that the people of Edo are tired of politics as usual. They are searching for a leader who will genuinely focus on their needs, who will rise above the distractions of power struggles, and who will be different from the norm. 

The expectations for Monday Okpebholo are high, and he must show from the outset that he is not just another politician repeating old patterns. Being different means staying true to his word and ensuring that the promises made during his campaign are not simply forgotten once he is in office. Okpebholo must be a leader whose loyalty lies with the people of Edo and not with political godfathers who often manipulate officeholders for their personal gain.

Too often, newly elected officials get caught up in the politics of those who brought them to power. They become distracted by playing to the tunes of their political benefactors or spend their time engaged in personal vendettas and power struggles within their parties. Okpebholo, however, must resist these pressures. He needs to focus on the very people who elected him and deliver on his promises to transform Edo State.

One of the major failings of Nigerian politicians is their tendency to get bogged down in unnecessary political fights, usually with their predecessors or godfathers. In Edo, we have seen how political infighting can derail progress and stagnate development. Monday Okpebholo must chart a different course. Instead of expending his energy on needless political battles, he should focus on the real issues that matter to the people of Edo: job creation, infrastructure development, education, healthcare, and poverty alleviation.

Edo needs a leader who can rise above petty squabbles and instead, build bridges. Okpebholo must forge alliances that will enable him to serve the people effectively, not destroy his tenure with personal or party conflicts. His focus should remain on leaving a legacy of progress, rather than wasting his time on distractions that have nothing to do with the well-being of Edo citizens.

To truly be different, Okpebholo must reject the typical Nigerian political playbook, where godfathers exert a heavy influence over elected leaders. This has been a significant obstacle to good governance, with elected officials feeling more indebted to the political elites than to the electorate. Okpebholo must show independence and integrity in his governance. He should be beholden only to the people of Edo State and committed to making decisions that reflect their best interests, not the interests of a few powerful individuals. 

Edo citizens are tired of leaders who are puppets in the hands of political godfathers; they are yearning for a leader who will chart his own course based on what is best for the state. Breaking free from this long-standing culture will require both courage and resilience, but it is critical if Okpebholo truly wants to deliver a new kind of leadership in Edo.

At the heart of being different is putting the people first. This means being a leader who is accessible, transparent, and accountable. Okpebholo must create systems that ensure the people of Edo can hold him accountable throughout his tenure. Regular communication with the public, town hall meetings, and feedback mechanisms are essential tools for demonstrating that he is in office to serve the people.

More than just lip service, Okpebholo must implement policies that directly address the concerns of the average Edo citizen. This includes tangible progress in areas like infrastructure, security, education, and economic empowerment. The people of Edo do not want grand political gestures, they want to see real, lasting improvements in their daily lives. If Monday Okpebholo can deliver on this, he will truly be different.

Leadership is not just about addressing current challenges, it is about laying a foundation for the future. Okpebholo must embrace development plans that go beyond his term in office and focus on long-term progress for Edo State. Key areas such as education, healthcare, job creation, and industrialization are essential for the future growth of the state. 

Building a sustainable economy that is less reliant on federal allocations will require investing in Edo’s comparative advantages, including agriculture, tourism, and human capital development. Okpebholo should also focus on improving access to quality education to equip Edo’s youth with the skills needed for the modern economy. A forward-thinking leader must prioritize projects that may not necessarily bring immediate political gain but will yield results for generations to come.

One of the pressing challenges in Edo State is the issue of insecurity, which has stifled economic growth and threatened the peace of its residents. Okpebholo must prioritize security if he truly wants to serve the people. A leader who is different understands that without security, no meaningful development can take place. 

In collaboration with security agencies and community leaders, Okpebholo must design a security architecture that is inclusive, efficient, and community-based. He must tackle issues such as kidnapping, armed robbery, and communal clashes with innovative strategies. By restoring peace and security, Edo State can become a hub for investment and development, providing its citizens with the environment they need to thrive.

Okpebholo must also make a deliberate effort to empower the youth and women in Edo State. Youth unemployment is a ticking time bomb in many Nigerian states, and Edo is no different. Okpebholo can be different by focusing on entrepreneurship programs, skills acquisition, and access to finance for young people. By doing so, he can help create a generation of self-sufficient youths who will contribute positively to the state’s economy.

Women are equally essential to Edo’s progress, and Okpebholo should prioritize policies that support gender equality and women’s empowerment. Women in Edo deserve to be fully integrated into the state’s decision-making processes, and Okpebholo can set the tone by ensuring that women hold key positions in his government.

Monday Okpebholo has a unique opportunity before him. He can break the chain of political disappointment that has plagued Edo State and Nigeria at large. But to do so, he must be different. He must be the leader who rejects godfatherism, avoids the distractions of political in-fighting, and stays true to the promises made to the people. Okpebholo must put the people first, and if he can do that, he will not only win their trust but also secure a lasting legacy of progress in Edo State.

The people of Edo are watching closely. They have heard many promises before, and they have been let down too often. This is Monday Okpebholo’s chance to stand out, to break the mold, and to show that he is indeed different. The future of Edo depends on it.

Adams Oshiomhole, a Nigerian senator and former governor of Edo State, should be in a jubilant mood after Saturday’s governorship election in Edo.

Why? Mr Oshiomhole’s party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), won the Edo election.

Political analysts may describe this election outcome as a political revenge against his successor and estranged ally, Governor Godwin Obaseki.

According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Monday Okpebholo, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), scored 291 667 votes to defeat his main rival and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Asue Ighodalo, who scored 247 274.

A former president of the Nigerian Bar Association, Olumide Akpata, the candidate of the Labour Party (LP) came third with 22,763 votes.

Mr Okpebholo, backed by Mr Oshiomhole, won in 11 local government areas, while Mr Ighodalo, with the backing of Governor Obaseki, won in seven.

Although Messrs Oshiomhole and Obaseki’s names were not on the ballots, behind the scenes, political observers believe the election was a supremacy battle between the governor and his erstwhile “political father,” Mr Oshiomhole.

By getting the APC to take back Edo, Mr Oshiomhole, a former national chairperson of the APC once trounced by Mr Obaseki, has now redeemed his political image.

Ally turned rival

Mr Oshiomhole, a former president of the Nigeria Labour Congress, first contested for the governorship election of Edo in 2007 under the platform of the defunct Action Congress.

INEC declared the PDP candidate, Oserheimen Osunbor, the winner, but Mr Oshiomhole challenged the declaration and got the Election Petition Tribunal to nullify Mr Osunbor’s victory. The Court of Appeal later upheld the verdict.

Mr Oshiomhole was subsequently sworn in as governor in 2008, a development that pushed the state into an off-cycle election. He was reelected in 2012 for a second term with a landslide victory.

After completing his second term in 2016, Mr Oshiomhole ‘helped’ Mr Obaseki, whom he had earlier appointed as chairperson of the Edo State economic team, succeed him as governor. He nicknamed Mr Obaseki the “brain of creativity” behind his administration’s success.

Mr Ighodalo, the PDP candidate, was a member of the economic team.

Mr Obaseki became the governor, and afterwards, Mr Oshiomhole emerged as the national chairperson of the ruling APC.

In the course of Mr Obaseki’s first term as governor, an initial latent rift with his “god-father” manifested and grew worse until the relationship collapsed completely.

Amidst the rifts, Mr Obaseki inaugurated nine out of the 24 members-elect of the Edo House of Assembly, apparently to prevent Mr Oshiomhole’s loyalists from taking control of the assembly. The APC national leadership rejected the inauguration, which was done at night.

Less than a month later, on 4 July 2019, Mr Obaseki sacked eight commissioners from his cabinet over their alleged alliance with Mr Oshiomhole.

Four months later, Mr Oshiomhole was suspended by the APC in Edo State following a vote of no confidence against him by party chairpersons from 18 local government chapters in the state, a move allegedly instigated by Mr Obaseki.

In December 2019, the Mr Obaseki-backed Edo assembly sacked 12 out of the 15 members-elect who were initially excluded from its inauguration in June.

Two days after Christmas in 2019, Mr Obaseki handed Mr Oshiomhole a shocker. He told reporters that Mr Oshiomhole remained suspended as the APC national chairperson but that he might consider taking him back if “he comes back remorseful and apologetic.”

The Deputy Governor of Edo State, Philip Shaibu, in January 2020 issued what appeared like a travel ban against Mr Oshiomhole. He said Mr Oshiomhole would not enter Edo without the permission of Mr Obaseki.

Two months later, a High Court in Abuja ordered Mr Oshiomhole’s suspension, relying on the initial suspension issued by the party in Edo State on the APC national chairperson.

Upon Mr Oshiomhole’s appeal, the appellate court in Abuja adjourned the suspension suit indefinitely, halting the process and giving Mr Oshiomhole time to re-strategise.

Amidst their raging feud, Mr Obaseki said Mr Oshiomhole was disrupting the party’s decision-making process in Edo State on 8 June 2020. Four days later, Governor Obaseki was disqualified from the APC governorship primary in Edo State over alleged inconsistencies in his academic credentials, the same credentials the party scrutinised and cleared him to contest for governorship in 2016.

The appellate court on 16 June 2020 affirmed Mr Oshiomhole’s suspension as APC national chairperson and dismissed his appeal for lacking merit. The same day, Mr Obaseki resigned from the APC after a meeting with then-President Muhammadu Buhari in Abuja. Hours later, the Edo deputy governor, Mr Shaibu, also resigned.

Amidst intense lobbying and permutations, Governor Obaseki and his deputy joined the PDP on 19 June 2020, where he contested for a second term and defeated Mr Oshiomhole’s APC.

Mr Oshiomhole’s suspension was lifted on 20 June 2020, a day after Mr Obaseki left the party for PDP.

Oshiomhole’s triumph

Mr Obaseki’s victory in 2020 against Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the APC candidate, was a severe political blow to Mr Oshiomhole.

The 2020 governorship election was the second consecutive time Mr Obaseki defeated Mr Ize-Iyamu. In 2016, Mr Ize-Iyamu was the PDP candidate who lost to Mr Obaseki of the APC then, but the two switched political parties after Mr Obaseki fell out with Mr Oshiomhole.

In 2020, Mr Obaseki polled 307,955 votes to defeat Mr Ize-Iyamu, who scored 223, 619 votes.

Governor Obaseki won in 13 local government areas, including Ovia West, Orhionmwon, Esan West, Ovia North, Oredo (with over 100 per cent of what APC scored), Esan North East, Esan Central, Igueben, Ikpoba Okha, Uhunmwonde, Egor, Owan West and Esan South East while Mr Oshiomhole-backed APC candidate, Mr Ize-Iyamu won in five including Etsako West, Owan East, Akoko Edo, Etsako East and Etsako Central.

Four years later, Mr Obaseki hand-picked a lawyer and banker, Mr Ighodalo, as his preferred successor but was roundly defeated by the APC.

However, incidents of violence, technical glitches, vote-buying, and alterations of results prompted the PDP to reject the election result.

Did Ighodalo carry Obaseki’s baggage?

Besides Mr Obaseki’s fight with Mr Oshiomhole, analysts felt that the PDP candidate, Mr Ighodalo, went into Saturday’s election carrying a lot of the governor’s baggage, including Mr Obaseki’s refusal to inaugurate the 14 members-elect of the Edo assembly from 2019 to 2023 and the governor’s ill-treatment of the deputy governor, Mr Shaibu, because of his (Shaibu’s) governorship ambition.

It also appears that Mr Obaseki did not particularly have a good relationship with the Edo traditional rulers.

I recently stumbled on a concept. It is called counter-factual history. “It is a form of historiography that attempts to answer the What if? questions that arise from counter-factual conditions,” according to Wikipedia. The dynamics of politics in Nigeria are counter-factual. There is always the what-if question in analysis and outcomes. It is easy to see many claiming to have won the election. Then, the slogan of “he will contest again” is the medium of solace in waiting for the next electoral circle. What if Tinubu doesn’t contest in 2027?

Counter-factual history is “conjecturing on what did not happen, or what might have happened, to understand what did happen.” How would the election play out? President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had a single ambition to become president and not necessarily a two-term president. He worked assiduously towards it for many years. He built bridges across the divide. He negotiated. He made pledges. He granted concessions. And he became president. Even when the odds were against him. He would want to replicate the Nelson Mandela example to make history as the only president who didn’t seek a second term in office.

I was in a conversation with a friend, and he mentioned that he saw a billboard that had President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his wife with the 2027 slogan. I told him it might not necessarily be the idea of the president, but an attempt by political merchants to lure him into the race again. The president sees and recognizes obstacles from a distance and he is not known to go into any fight he can’t come out victorious. In 2027 many variables would play out. A glimpse could be seen at the end bad governance protest. It was a message to the president about his rating in the north. In 2027, the third force would come from the north. This is why he won’t go into the race.

His strategy for the All Progressive Congress (APC) to win the presidential election is getting a young and bustling candidate from the north and not a (Hausa-Fulani). But a northerner whom the Hausa-Fulani can not reject. The vice presidential candidate would be a brilliant mind from the southeast who is well respected and known as an advocate of south-eastern interests.

We might see regular faces as standard bearers of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). There would be a third force party from the North as a protest. The implication is that the North and the East would be in a dilemma—the dilemma of choice. The south-east would likely go for the bird at hand, recognizing the incumbency advantage the APC has. It would be a case of once bitten twice shy. After Nnamdi Azikiwe and Alex Ekwueme, the south-east have not been lucky despite several attempts.

The PDP would try to balance their equation by going for a counter-strategy by picking a south-easterner as a vice presidential candidate, too. That would leave the LP in a dilemma. Picking a northerner as a vice presidential candidate would be of little impact because of the limited choices. The third-force from the North might jettison the idea given the prevailing circumstances and with the tendency that their lot would be better with the APC for religious reasons. The APC still had the advantage and won the election. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ate his cake and had it. He retires to Lagos, and life continues for him. His involvement in national politics would be greatly reduced. At least, he has joined the league of former presidents with the benefits accrued for life.

It would signal a new era of politics. The majority of the old order would retire. 60 years and above might struggle to make an impact. The agitation for youth involvement would be rife. The new president, himself a young person, would easily relate to the demands and pressure to score good political points to advance the acceptability of the administration. There is also the psychological aspect to it, and the excitement would be palpable among young people below the 60-year age bracket.

The losers would be sensational, and that would usher in a gale of retirements from active politics. The narrative would change completely, and the aces of the LP candidate would reduce tremendously because the youth constituency, a critical support base, would have switched camps. There would be no need for another shot at it. It might also bring about a retirement.

Please don’t forget that this is counter-factual history. It might be the case or not the case. But my instincts tell me it might be the case because of the many battles the president is fighting. He must have bruised many egos with his style of governance and possibly the political choices he must have made. He doesn’t seem apologetic about it. He had what he always wanted. He created history and it can not be reversed. The 2027 presidential elections will be very interesting and tenacious politics will play out. There would be a winner and losers, and lawyers would be disappointed. This is the counter-factual history of the 2027 presidential election.

Ocheja, a military historian and doctoral researcher, is an alumnus of the Nigerian Defence Academy.

In Nigeria, a country known for its diversity in culture, language, and politics, certain states and their people stand out for their unique attributes. Among them is Edo State, with its people known for resilience, dogged determination, and a refusal to settle for anything less than excellence. This can-do attitude is often captured in the popular saying, “Edo nor dey carry last,” a phrase that not only reflects their refusal to be outdone but also their tenacity in overcoming challenges. No one embodies this spirit more than Adams Oshiomhole, fondly referred to as “Oshio Baba”.

Oshiomhole’s life, career, and political journey serve as a case study in resilience and tenacity. From his early days as a union leader to becoming the governor of Edo State and later the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Oshiomhole has shown that he is not just a man of words but of actions and results. His life is the epitome of the “Edo nor dey carry last” ethos, a true son of the soil who fights for what he believes in and never backs down, no matter the odds.

Oshiomhole’s journey did not begin with the glitz and glamour of political office. He started from humble beginnings. Born in Iyamho, a small village in Edo State, Oshiomhole’s early life was not a bed of roses. He grew up understanding the struggles of the common man, and this shaped his world view. His rise from a poor background to becoming one of Nigeria’s most respected labor leaders and politicians is a testament to his unyielding spirit.

His years in the labor movement saw him engage with both military and civilian regimes, fighting relentlessly for the rights of Nigerian workers. As president of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), Oshiomhole led several successful protests and strikes against anti-labor policies, gaining national recognition for his courage and outspoken nature. His fearlessness in confronting the government on behalf of workers earned him the reputation of a champion of the people, a status he has maintained throughout his career.

In every protest, every negotiation table, and every political battle, Oshiomhole demonstrated that giving up was not an option. This doggedness is what has defined his public life and made him an icon, not only in Edo State but across the nation.

In 2008, Oshiomhole transitioned from labor activism to state governance, becoming the governor of Edo State. His entry into Edo politics marked the beginning of a new chapter for the state, as he vowed to bring about sweeping reforms that would impact every facet of life. Edo people, known for their sharp instincts and political awareness, saw in Oshiomhole a leader who would not compromise on development, accountability, and transparency.

During his two terms as governor, Oshiomhole transformed Edo State in ways that few had anticipated. His administration was focused on infrastructure development, improving education, healthcare, and creating opportunities for the youth. Under his leadership, Edo State witnessed a significant upgrade in its road network, with many rural and urban areas connected by well-constructed roads. This infrastructural revolution earned him accolades, as Edo people saw real progress and tangible development.

One of the key highlights of his tenure was his commitment to education. Oshiomhole recognized the importance of human capital development and ensured that schools across the state were upgraded, equipped, and properly managed. Teachers were retrained, and learning environments were improved to ensure that children from all backgrounds could have access to quality education.

The healthcare sector also saw notable improvements. Hospitals were rehabilitated, and healthcare services were brought closer to the people, particularly in rural areas. This was a significant departure from the previous administrations where development was centered on the capital city, Benin. Oshiomhole’s ability to think outside the box and reach all corners of the state exemplified the “Edo nor dey carry last” mentality.

Beyond his achievements as governor, Oshiomhole’s political career took another leap when he became the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2018. As chairman, he was tasked with the challenging responsibility of managing the party’s affairs in a turbulent period. Oshiomhole, known for his ability to stand firm in the face of adversity, did not shy away from the task.

Under his leadership, the APC navigated through several political storms, including the build-up to the 2019 general elections. He was instrumental in the re-election of President MuhammaduBuhari, a feat that underscored his strategic political prowess. Despite facing internal opposition and political wrangling within the party, Oshiomhole’s refusal to be silenced or side-lined exemplified the resilience he had shown throughout his career.

However, his tenure as chairman was not without its challenges. Political infighting and power struggles within the party eventually led to his removal from the position in 2020. But even in defeat, Oshiomhole remained defiant, a true representation of the Edo spirit that never backs down. His resilience in the face of adversity and his continued involvement in politics demonstrate that Oshiomhole is far from finished.

The spirit that Oshiomhole represents is not unique to him alone. It is reflective of the larger Edo identity. The people of Edo State have long been known for their achievements in various fields—education, politics, arts, and culture. From the ancient Benin Kingdom, one of Africa’s most advanced civilizations, to modern-day successes, Edo people have consistently shown that they do not settle for mediocrity.

Edo’s sons and daughters are found excelling not only in Nigeria but globally. In every sector, they demonstrate the values of hard work, persistence, and excellence. From business moguls to academics, artists to politicians, Edo people have a tradition of making their mark wherever they go. It is this tradition that has earned them the reputation of being people who never carry last.

As Oshiomhole’s political journey continues to inspire, there is a clarion call to the next generation of Edo youth. The future belongs to those who are willing to fight for it, just as Oshiomhole did. The challenges facing Nigeria today, from economic hardship to political instability, require the same spirit of resilience that Edo people have always demonstrated.

Edo youth must take up the mantle of leadership in their various capacities, ensuring that they contribute to the development of their communities, state, and nation. The saying “Edo nor dey carry last” should not just be a slogan, but a way of life, a constant reminder that no matter the obstacles, success is always within reach for those who strive for it.

In a country where political leaders often fade into obscurity after their tenure, Oshiomhole stands out as a man who continues to fight for what he believes in. His legacy, both as a labor leader and a politician, is one of resilience, perseverance, and a refusal to give up in the face of adversity.

Oshiomhole’s life story is a reflection of the Edo spirit, bold, fearless, and relentless. He has shown time and time again that “Edo nor dey carry last”, and as Edo people continue to break barriers and set new standards, Oshiomhole will remain an enduring symbol of that tenacity.

Oshio Baba, na true, you be Edo man. As you continue to navigate the political landscape, Edo people and Nigerians alike will always look to you as an embodiment of resilience and hope. Truly, Edo nor dey carry last, and neither do you.

In the midst of Nigeria’s deepening economic struggles, one cannot help but wonder: “Are members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) also feeling the pinch of hardship under President Bola Tinubu’s administration?” As the country faces rising inflation, soaring fuel prices, and worsening poverty, it appears that even some APC elites, who once seemed immune, are now lamenting their plight. The very architects of the policies being implemented are beginning to feel the harsh consequences of those same decisions.

In February 2024, the North-West youth wing of the APC broke its silence, expressing grave concerns over the escalating cost of living, hunger, and insecurity in the region. Their call for action was a rare public plea from a group that traditionally aligns itself with the ruling government. The youth wing’s statement, calling on President Tinubu and party leaders to intervene, marked a significant shift in tone, as even loyal party members began to question the trajectory of the country. “We can no longer stay silent while our people suffer,” they said, urging the government to prioritize economic relief measures for Nigerians.

This was not an isolated incident. In September 2024, which is invariably the ongoing month,  a highly respected Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Chief SeniIbiwoye, voiced similar concerns. Speaking at a public forum, Ibiwoye called for a rethink of the federal government’s economic policies, particularly the recent fuel price hikes. “The masses of this country are groaning and suffering,” he said, adding that the government’s decisions are hurting ordinary Nigerians. Ibiwoye’s remarks are particularly telling because, as a member of the legal elite, he likely enjoys a level of financial comfort that many Nigerians do not. For him to publicly criticize the government’s handling of the economy speaks volumes about the severity of the situation.

In Osun State, another prominent APC chieftain, Hon. OlatunbosunOyintiloye, also issued a heartfelt appeal to President Tinubu, asking him to act quickly to alleviate the suffering of the masses. “The people are feeling the heat,”Oyintiloye said, urging the government to take swift action. The fact that members of the ruling party are openly expressing concerns about the direction of the country is an indication that even those who helped bring the administration to power are not immune to the ripple effects of its policies.

Perhaps the most striking sign of the far-reaching impact of the economic crisis is the admission by Senator Orji UzorKalu, a former governor and influential APC leader, who acknowledged the financial hardship in Nigeria. In January 2024, Kalu appealed to Nigerians to give the Tinubu government more time to turn things around, but even he has since found himself forced to make lifestyle changes. In a now-viral video, Kalu revealed that he had stopped using his private jet due to the high cost of aviation fuel (Jet A1).

Buying fuel and all of the rest… I have grounded the private jet to do some other businesses for oil companies,”Kalu explained. His decision to opt for commercial flights was a stark contrast to his usual affluent lifestyle, reflecting the severity of the economic crisis. If someone of Kalu’s stature, who has the means to own a private jet, is feeling the strain, what does that say about the millions of Nigerians struggling to afford basic necessities?

In addition to Kalu, Joe Igbokwe, another prominent APC chieftain, has shared his struggles in adjusting to the new economic reality. In a candid social media post, Igbokwe admitted that he had drastically reduced his energy consumption at home, switching off 70% of his electrical appliances to save on costs. “I don carry my motor comot for road oooo. No be anywhere I de go now. For house, we don switch off 70% of the electricity to surviveoooo. Life na teacher ooooo,” he wrote, capturing the frustration of many Nigerians who have had to change their lifestyles to cope with the spiraling cost of living.

Igbokwe’s admission, like Kalu’s, underscores the reality that economic hardship does not discriminate. The fact that senior APC members, who hold positions of influence and power, are speaking openly about their struggles suggests that the economic situation is reaching a boiling point. It is not just the everyday Nigerian who is feeling the pain, but the very people who helped, vicariously through public comments, particularly Joe Igbokwe who has a frequent presence online leading to the implementation of  the policies that have led to the current situation.

The growing chorus of concerns from within the APC begs the question: “Is President Tinubu listening?” The president, who campaigned on promises of economic growth and development, now faces an increasingly restless nation. While many Nigerians outside the APC have long voiced their displeasure with the administration’s policies, the fact that prominent party members are now joining the chorus suggests that the discontent is reaching a critical level.

Even though many in the APC have maintained their loyalty to the president, it is clear that the economic situation is creating cracks within the party. The admission by Senator Kaluthat he could no longer afford to operate his private jet, and Igbokwe’s decision to limit his electricity use, reflect an uncomfortable reality that no one in Nigeria, regardless of their political affiliation, can escape the ripple effects of bad policy decisions.

As the country continues to grapple with economic challenges, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the hardship is not limited to the poor or politically unaffiliated. Even members of the APC are feeling the strain, and their public admissions are a powerful indictment of the government’s current trajectory.

If high-ranking members of the ruling party, including lawmakers, legal luminaries, and political influencers, are calling for change, then the government must listen. The hardship is not just a matter of political posturing or opposition criticism,it is a reality that cuts across all segments of society, from the struggling market woman to the affluent senator. President Tinubu must take swift and decisive action to address these concerns before the situation spirals further out of control.

In the end, the question remains: “If even APC elites are feeling the heat, how much longer can ordinary Nigerians bear the weight of this hardship?”