Nigerian crude maintained its premium status as investors and sold higher than the FG budget benchmark on oil as oil traders eyed concerns around crude and fuel supplies, following Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and the potential for a widening of the Israel-Hamas war to more directly including Iran.

Nigeria Brass River and Qua Iboe traded close to $92 a barrel while Brent Crude at the time of writing traded at $89 per barrel. Nigeria Bonny Light also traded at $91.37 a barrel late Tuesday.

Nigeria recorded extra revenue of $13.71 per barrel at the current price of $91.67 per barrel, while the country’s 2024 budget was based on $77.96 per barrel and 1.78 million barrels per day.

Although efforts to combat oil theft have intensified, Africa’s largest economy needs to be able to fulfil its budgetary targets of 1.78 million barrels per day.

Additionally, with numerous refineries set to come online this year, worries regarding the supply of feedstock for the refineries have grown over the past month.

What you should know

After a drone strike by Ukraine on a second Russian refinery raised the possibility of shutting down even more of the nation’s processing capacity and reducing the production of gasoline and diesel fuel, prices shot up. Russia is one of the biggest and one of the top three producers of oil in the world.

• Investors are also worried that, having sworn payback, Iran’s retaliation against Israel for an attack on Monday that claimed the lives of high-ranking military officers may cause supply interruptions in the vital Middle East-producing region.
• Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), supporting the Hamas militia in Gaza against Israel.
• Concerns over supplies were increased by the fact that according to an internal memo seen by Reuters, Mexico’s state energy corporation Pemex asked its trading section to halt up to 436,000 barrels of crude exports per day this month as it prepared to process domestic oil at the new Dos Bocas refinery.

More Insights

The United States is the largest oil consumer in the world, and early signs point to a decline in oil stockpiles there as well.

• On Tuesday, traders reported that data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that last week’s crude inventories had dropped by 2.3 million barrels.
• Nigerian oil, however, confronts fierce competition from American suppliers even though it sells at a premium who have pushed their way into the market previously controlled by Nigeria and other Organization of the Pezzxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxtroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
• In addition, US oil production is rising while OPEC and Russia have declined.

This change is most noticeable in India, a significant consumer of Nigerian crude oil, where Indian refiners are refusing to accept cargoes from tankers owned by the sanctioned Russian company Sovcomflot PJSC, leading to a move away from sanctioned Russian oil and toward US crude.

[Nairametrics]

Rwanda on Sunday begins sombre commemorations for the 30th anniversary of the 1994 genocide, a mass slaughter orchestrated by Hutu extremists against the Tutsi minority over 100 bloody days.

More than 800,000 men, women and children, mainly ethnic Tutsis but also moderate Hutus, were killed in the murderous onslaught that saw families and friends turn against each other in one of the darkest episodes of the late 20th century.

Three decades on, the tiny landlocked nation has rebuilt under the iron-fisted rule of President Paul Kagame, but the traumatic legacy of the genocide lingers, reverberating across the region.

In keeping with tradition, April 7 – the day Hutu extremists and militias unleashed their horrific killing spree in 1994 – will be marked by Kagame lighting a remembrance flame at the Kigali Genocide Memorial, where more than 250,000 victims are believed to be buried.

Kagame, whose Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) rebel army helped to stop the massacres, will deliver a speech and place wreaths on the mass graves, with some foreign dignitaries in attendance for what has been dubbed “Kwibuka (Remembrance) 30”.

‘Never again’
Sunday’s events mark the start of a week of national mourning, with Rwanda effectively coming to a standstill and national flags flown at half-mast.

During those days, music will not be allowed in public places or on the radio, while sports events and movies are banned from TV broadcasts unless connected to the commemorations.

The United Nations and the African Union among others will also hold remembrance ceremonies.

“This year, we remind ourselves of genocide’s rancid root: hate,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a message marking the anniversary.

“To those who would seek to divide us, we must deliver a clear, unequivocal and urgent message: never again.”

The international community was heavily criticised for failing to protect civilians, with the UN sharply reducing its peacekeeping force shortly after the outbreak of the violence.

Shot, beaten or hacked to death
The assassination of Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana on the night of April 6 when his plane was shot down over Kigali triggered the rampage by Hutu extremists and the “Interahamwe” militia.

Their victims were shot, beaten or hacked to death in killings fuelled by vicious anti-Tutsi propaganda broadcast on TV and radio. An estimated 100,000 to 250,000 women were raped, according to UN figures.

Hundreds of thousands of people, mainly ethnic Hutu fearing reprisal attacks, fled in the aftermath of the genocide to neighbouring countries including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Mass graves are still being found in Rwanda to this day.

In 2002, Rwanda set up community tribunals where victims could hear “confessions” from those who had persecuted them.

A staggering 1.2 million cases were heard over 10 years, although rights watchdogs said the system also resulted in miscarriages of justice, with some complainants using it to settle scores.

Today, Rwandan ID cards make no mention of whether a person is Hutu or Tutsi.

Secondary school students learn about the genocide as part of a tightly controlled curriculum.

‘Scars of the past’
Around two-thirds of Rwanda’s population was born after the genocide. Many are eager to help rewrite their nation’s painful history and craft a new narrative.

“Ever since I was little, Rwanda’s story has been one of rebuilding,” project manager Roxanne Mudenge, 27, told AFP.

“The scars of the past are still there, but there’s a different energy now, a sense of possibility.”

According to the Rwandan authorities, hundreds of genocide suspects remain at large, including in neighbouring nations such as the DRC and Uganda.

So far, only 28 have been extradited to Rwanda globally.

France, one of the top destinations for Rwandans fleeing justice at home, has tried and convicted half a dozen people over their involvement in the killings.

At the time, the French government had been a long-standing backer of Habyarimana’s regime, leading to decades of tensions between the two countries.

In 2021 President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged France’s role in the genocide and its refusal to heed warnings of looming massacres, prompting Kagame to applaud the French leader for taking “a big step”.

Although Macron stopped short of an apology and denied complicity in the bloodshed, Kagame said the rapprochement could pave the way for “a better” relationship between the two nations.

Ties between Kigali and Kinshasa have been characterised by even deeper acrimony, with the RPF accused of killing tens of thousands of civilians during its pursuit of genocide perpetrators in the Congo.

Kagame’s government has been accused of arming Tutsi-led M23 rebels in eastern DRC. Kigali has denied the allegations but says Tutsis in its larger neighbour are victims of persecution.

[DailyTrust]

At least five persons were killed and others injured during a gun duel between security operatives and gunmen on Tuesday in Anambra.

The incident took place when the Anambra Joint Security Force, JSF, invaded two camps of the gunmen in Aguluezechukwu, Aguata council area and Ogboji, Orumba South council area respectively.

It was gathered that during the raid by the security operatives, some items like locally fabricated rocket launchers, charms, police uniforms among others were recovered.

Though Anambra police spokesman Ikenga Tochukwu did not disclose the casualty figures, it learnt that four gunmen and a police operative died during the shootout.

A statement by the Police Command in Awka on Wednesday explained the hunt for the gunmen had been extended to Obofia Forest, Aguluezechukwu and Ogboji areas.

[DailyPost]

President Bassirou Diomaye Faye was on Tuesday inaugurated as President of Senegal. He is the youngest to take the presidential seat in the West African nation. 

Here is a list of youngest leaders in Africa. 

1.     Ibrahim Traoré, Burkina Faso ( 36)

Ibrahim Traoré is the current youngest serving President in Africa after he displaced the former military leader, Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba through a coup d’etat when he was 34. Ibrahim Traoré has been in charge of the Affairs of Burkina Faso since September 30th, 2022.

2.     Mahamat Deby, Chad ( 39)

Four-star military general, Mahamat Idriss “Kaka” Déby Itno is serving as the transitional president of Chad. He gained power following the death of his father, late Chadian President Idriss Déby who died in action while commanding troops in the Northern Chad offensive.  Born April 4, 1984, he assumed power on 20 April 2021. He is the second youngest serving African leader.

3. Assimi Goïta, Mali (41)

Following the military take over in Mali against former president Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta in 2020, Assimi Goïta became president and the third youngest military leader in Africa. The 41-yeat-old has been in charge of Mali on interim basis since May 28th, 2021.

4.     Mamady Doumbouya, Guinea ( 44)

Mamady Doumbouya led a coup d’état on 5 September 2021 that ousted the former president, Alpha Condé.

Doumbouya is now the military officer serving as the interim president of Guinea since 1 October 2021. Born on March 4, 1980, makes him the fourth youngest leader on the African continent at age 44.

5.     Bassirou Diomaye Faye, Senegal (Age 44)

Bassirou Diomaye Diakhar Faye is the youngest democratically elected president in Africa, and the fifth youngest African leader sworn in in on April 2, 2024. He is a lawyer, tax inspector, and politician who ran for the office of the president in place of disqualified candidate Ousmane Sonko. He was born on March 25, 1980.

6.     Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia (Age 47)

Abiy Ahmed was born on 15 August 1976 is the sixth youngest African leader. He is a politician serving as the third Prime Minister of Ethiopia since 2018. Ahmed is a computer engineer and military officer. He was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize “for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea”..

7.     Andry Rajoelina, Madagascar ( 49)

Andry Nirina Rajoelina was born on 30 May 1974 and is the seventh youngest African leader. The Malagasy-French politician and businessman who has served as president of Madagascar since 2019 was president of a provisional government from 2009 to 2014 following a political crisis and military-backed coup. He once held the office of Mayor of Antananarivo for one year. Before venturing into politics, Rajoelina was a media and advertising entrepreneur.

The seven-man panel set up by the Chief Judge of Edo State, Justice Daniel Okungbowa, to investigate the allegation of misconduct levelled against the state deputy governor, Philip Shaibu, began sitting on Wednesday.

The panel headed by retired Justice S. A. Omonuwa, was set up by Justice Okungbowa following the resolution by the state House of Assembly, which initiated the impeachment process against Shaibu.

At the panel on Wednesday, the House of Assembly was represented by Mr Joe Ohiafi, Deputy Clerk, Legal, just as Shaibu was represented by Prof Oladoyin Awoyale (SAN).

The impeachment process is believed to be the latest development in the conflict between Shaibu and Governor Godwin Obaseki, his principal, which allegedly began when Shaibu announced his intention to run for Edo governor this year.

A statement signed by the administrative secretary of the panel, George Odidi, last Thursday read, “Take notice that consequent upon the inauguration of the above panel by His Lordship the Hon. Chief Judge of Edo State, Hon. Justice Daniel Okungbowa, in line with Section 188 Subsection 5 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999, the said panel shall commence sitting at Judges Conference room, New High Court Complex, Benin City on Wednesday, April 3, 2024 at 10am prompt.

“Parties and/or their counsel are expected to be present on that day while the complainant is expected to be ready to present its case on that day.”

[Punch]

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC, has increased the electricity tariff paid by Band A customers from N68/KWh to N225/kWh.

Band A customers are those that receive an average daily electricity supply of 20 hours or more. With the new order issued by NERC, Band A customers would no longer enjoy Federal Government subsidy on Electricity.

NERC said in Abuja that Band A customers make up just 15 percent of total electricity customers in the country.

Details coming...

[Vanguard]

When the CBN governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso indicated last year that they were in the process of setting a new minimum capital base for Nigerian banks to enhance their capacity to support a one trillion dollar economy, I welcomed the idea with open hands and assumed that this administration was finally going to get something right about the economy especially given the way that they had been bungling economic policies since the inception of their administration.

While setting the minimum capital base for banks with international operations at N500 billion seems rather high, when we do a comparative analysis with other African countries where banks have billions of dollars in capital base, we realize that we are just scratching the surface. We need to do a lot more if we are serious about supporting a one trillion-dollar economy.

Apart from the contradiction of Nigeria being the largest economy in Africa and yet not a single Nigerian bank is among the top ten banks in terms of capital base, we also have a situation in Nigeria where banks are very reluctant to support the economy and would rather just lend money to the government and a few large blue chip companies while millions of entrepreneurs all over the country have little or no access to credit to finance their operations from the banking industry.

It is instructive to note that less than 3% of Nigerians have access to credit from Nigerian banks. Yet, the banks keep making huge profits every year mostly from government securities and forex trading which add very little value to the economy.

To support a one trillion dollar economy, we need to create a banking system that will not only be willing to give credit to support economic growth through entrepreneurs, we must aggregate enough capital within the banking system to finance their activities.

We need to go from a situation whereby very few entrepreneurs have access to bank credit to one in which credit is available for all eligible businesses in the country. It is only then that businesses will be able to grow at an exponential rate for the country to realize the dream of a one trillion-dollar economy.

Ironically the CBN governor’s vision of wanting to support a one trillion dollar economy is contradicted by his monetary policy direction of increasing interest rates which in itself is a disincentive to businesses that will lead to economic growth.

While the CBN governor’s reason for increasing interest rates was allegedly to fight inflation, I have argued that interest rate hikes will only work to curb inflation in a society in which the majority of the people have access to bank credit which is not the case in Nigeria. I also observed that the current inflation that we have in Nigeria is a cost-push inflation and not a demand-pull so it doesn’t make sense to increase interest rates to curb demand when most Nigerians already have very weak purchasing power.

The real reason behind the high inflation rate in the country is the fiscal indiscipline of the government that is expressed by their huge budget deficits and “budget padding” which is then financed through loans from the banking system and through Ways and Means advances which both increase money supply in the system without any additional productivity and this is what leads to inflation.

If the CBN governor is serious about fighting inflation, he needs to prevail on the federal government to cut the deficit and stop releasing funds to them to fund the deficit while commercial banks are also restrained from lending money to the government. This is what should have been done instead of punishing the victims of their hapless economic policies with higher interest rates in the guise of fighting inflation.

In my previous article on this subject matter, I suggested that the CBN set the minimum capital base for tier-one banks in the country at $5 billion or its Naira equivalent if they are truly serious about supporting a one trillion dollar economy. This is because banks supporting the economies of much smaller African countries than ours have capital in excess of $5 billion while Standard Bank of South Africa has a capital base of $13.2 billion yet they are supporting economies that are much smaller than ours.

For Nigeria to grow into a one trillion dollar economy, we need to have a fundamental shift in the way banking is done in the country. We need to move from the current system where banks just need to invest in government bonds and treasury bills while trading in forex to make huge profits to a system where banks will focus on funding the real sector of the economy, housing development, and consumer credit.

To achieve this, there must be deliberate government policy to restrict the issuance of government debt instruments like bonds and treasury bills while banks are incentivized to lend more to the public while lowering interest rates.

More importantly, we will need to significantly enhance the capacity of our banking industry to adequately finance our population which is more than 200 million people, and to achieve this the banking industry will have to aggregate a lot more capital than the current N500 billion minimum capital base for tier-one banks can muster.

It was certainly a step in the right direction for the CBN to increase the minimum capital base for banks in the country. However, the new minimum capital announced doesn’t reflect the CBN governor’s goal of supporting a one trillion dollar economy nor will it stimulate the needed seismic change that the banking industry needs to play a more supportive role in the economy.

Oshobi, a development economist, management consultant, and author writes from Lagos.

Ali Chiroma, a former president of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), is dead.

Ibrahim Chiroma, a relative to the deceased and secretary of the NUJ in Borno state, announced Chiroma’s death in a statement on Tuesday.

He said the ex-NLC president, who died at the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, will be buried on Wednesday in Borno.

Chiroma served as NLC president from 1984 to 1988.

“It is with deep sorrow that I announce the death of Comrade Ali Chiroma, former President of the Nigeria Labour Congress,” the statement reads.

“The sad event occurred this evening (Tuesday, April 2) at the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital.

“The burial for the repose of the deceased will be held tomorrow Wednesday 4pm at the residence of the deceased, No.7A along Galadima Road, near Muhammadu Shuwa Memorial Hospital (Nursing Home), Maiduguri.”

Chiroma’s reign as NLC president came to an end in 1988 after the union was dissolved by Ibrahim Babangida, the former head of state.

In 1993, Sani Abacha, former military head of state, appointed Chiroma as head of the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG).

[TheCable]

Has Nigeria learnt any lessons from the Okuama massacre?  Will the incident repeat itself or offer profound lessons against future experience?  In the journey of life, no individual or nation or country is immune from occurrences thrown up by circumstance, which may be pleasant or painful.  Lessons learnt from such experiences are deployed to prevent possible future recurrence, failing which the same catastrophe repeats itself. In context, the gruesome murder of army officers at Okuama in Ughelli South Local Government Area, Delta State, which transcends ethnic emotions and accompanied by wide condemnations, is a confirmation that Nigeria has not, and does not learn from lessons, otherwise, the calamity would have been avoided. 

The incident was not the first. It happened at Odi, Bayelsa State; Zaki Biam, Benue State; and Gbaramatu, Delta State.

Yet, it appeared neither the federal government nor the Nigerian Army learnt any lessons therefrom.  This is evident from the Okuama saga, a proof of the country’s insensitivity to bloodshed and exposition of poverty in the policy making process.  

This notwithstanding, the Okuama calamity has again thrown up another opportunity for lessons to be learned.  If Nigeria fails again this time around to learn from these happenings, then the country risks further carnage, which may possibly take a more complex form with unmanageable and unpredictable consequences.  It may be too costly for the country’s fledgling socio-economic balance and stability. 

Therefore, the lessons are crucial, and should be identified by the government and harnessed as feedback for proactive purposes to forestall future recurrence.  It is a tragedy for any country with a relapsing experience not to have a codified strategy encapsulated in a template to resolve related matters. In specific terms, what then are the lessons and takeaways from the Okuama disaster?  

Lesson One: To have allowed a land dispute over fishing rights between Okuama and neighbouring Okoloba community in Bomadi Local Government Area, Delta State, to escalate means there were no proactive measures and concerted prompt intervention by the Nigeria Police Force and Delta State Government in response to petitions written by Okuama community. 

The community, through its lawyers, I. Ejedegba and Co., had written a petition to the Commissioner of Police in Asaba, Delta State which was acknowledged on January 31, 2O24, while the petition written by Okuama community leaders and addressed to the Delta State Governor was received on February 2, 2O24.  This was over one month before the gruesome murder of the military officers on March 14, 2O24. 

Since the Police is the first line of defence and statutorily responsible for civil matters, they should have wadded in upon receipt of the petitions to nip the crisis in the bud, aside previous joint meetings among the communities, the Police and the Delta State Government that yielded no solution.  Under this development, the Delta State Governor should have been advised to wield the big stick by acquiring the land in contention for public interest to end the crisis.  

Lesson Two: Inviting the Army for a mediatory and peace mission to Okuama for resolution of land dispute between two communities that were not at war, was an error in judgement. The dispute was civil in nature, and it was only when efforts by the Police and the Delta State Governor had failed, and there was evidence of likely escalation into a dangerous dimension beyond the capacity of the Police, that would have warranted intervention by the Nigerian Army.  It is not the responsibility of the Army to broker peace in a civil matter.

Lesson Three: Central to the killing of the military personnel in Okuama, is presumably oil.  Oil appeared to be the underpinning motive behind the horrendous and senseless killings.  Mere land dispute between two communities could not have led to such a mindless massacre. Soldiers are deployed to the Niger Delta region to protect oil facilities, and in the course of this duty, they might have been marked as “enemy” by those profiteering from illegal oil deals. 

Those involved in crude oil theft and other illegal activities, including processing of locally refined products might see the Army as an obstacle to their business interests.  The military high command should have known this, and prepare the soldiers for possible eventuality and collision with entrenched oil thieves.  The circumstances of their death showed that the military men were taken unawares.  It was likely that crude oil thieves and other vested interests might have planned and taken advantage of the soldiers’ peaceful disposition to unleash mayhem in such a horrific and despicable manner.  

Lesson Four: The mass destruction of Okuama by the Army in response to the death of the soldiers without singling out the culprits, was unhelpful, as innocent children, mothers, elderly, the sick and even pregnant women, were either killed, rendered homeless or died while trying to escape.  To bring pains on an entire community over the action of a few criminals, is indefensible.  Reprisal attack and collective punishment are incompatible with international laws.  

Recalled that after destruction of Odi by the Army, the community resorted to litigation and got a favourable judgement, leading to payment of N15 billion out of court settlement, as compensation.  Justice Lambi Akanbi of the Federal High Court had condemned the government for a “brazen violation of the fundamental human rights of the victims to movement, life and to own property and live peacefully in their ancestral home.”  Since the Okuama experience is reminiscent of the destruction at Odi, it is likely Okuama may seek redress in the law court for compensation over reprisal destruction of lives and properties.  

Lesson Five: As the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu’s order to the Army was too hasty and reactionary without taking into consideration innocent lives in Okuama that were caught up in the web.  Granting “full authority” to the military to bring anybody found to have been responsible for the attack to justice, was an obvious blanket licence for the military to invade Okuama. 

Instead, the President should have ordered the security agencies and the Police to specifically intervene, identify and arrest the criminal elements in the community, while instituting an independent high-powered panel of enquiry to unravel the causes of the mayhem.  A future restraint on the part of the President is imperative to douse tension and minimise further collateral damage.

Lesson Six: The Army’s decision to lock down and lay siege to Okuama without granting access to the Delta State Governor, the Police, humanitarian agencies, and even the press to assess the situation on ground, has given rise to speculations about the plight of the members of the community, particularly the innocent, helpless and indigent persons.  This is unhelpful to the image of the Army. 

By not allowing access, the Army has, unwittingly, opened its operations to speculations. For example, it was alleged that the Army killed over 50 persons in Okuama, with other survivors hiding in the bush, including old women, children, the elderly ones and even the sick, with no food to eat and water to drink.  This is a gross violation of their fundamental human rights.

To avoid being put on the spotlight, it is imperative for the military to grant access into the community to enable humanitarian agencies and volunteer groups to extend help and assistance to the innocent ones to prevent further fatalities. This will also serve the interest of the Army’s reputation.

Lesson Seven: After the destruction of Odi, initial public sympathy for the military waned.  Same is replicating itself at Okuama over the conduct of the Army.  The Army, like other federal government agencies, is not a supreme institution that is above the Constitution and the Nigerian State, neither is the civilian population subject to military laws.  Indeed, the Army is subject to civil authority under Democracy. Therefore, it must change its current tactics at Okuama where it has refused access to the community, assumed sole information provider on goings-on, and subjected civilians to investigation, arrest and detention.  

It is hoped that these lessons will serve as reference and guide for the state governments, the Police, the Army and the federal government in handling related crises to avert future disaster.  

. Dr. Owhoko, a Lagos State-based public policy analyst, author and journalist