The Leader of the Senate, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, recently claimed that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sleeps well at night, assured by the leadership of Senate President Godswill Akpabio. Speaking during Akpabio’s 62nd birthday celebration, Bamidele emphasized Tinubu’s confidence in Akpabio’s ability to provide good leadership. While these statements were intended as a celebration of camaraderie within Nigeria’s political elite, they inadvertently highlight a glaring disparity. Tinubu and his inner circle may sleep soundly, but can the same be said for millions of Nigerians facing unprecedented economic hardships?  

The rising cost of living, economic instability, and dwindling public services have left many Nigerians tossing and turning in frustration. If President Tinubu and the Senate leadership truly wish to lead a nation where everyone sleeps well, their focus must shift toward actionable policies that directly alleviate the struggles of the people.  

Since the removal of fuel subsidies, Nigeria’s economic landscape has become a nightmare for many. Transportation costs have more than doubled, food prices have soared, and inflation has pushed even basic necessities beyond the reach of many households. Small businesses, the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, are collapsing under the weight of these economic pressures.  

For most Nigerians, the removal of the fuel subsidy was not just an economic adjustment; it was a seismic shift that disrupted daily life. While the government touts the potential long-term benefits of this policy, the immediate consequences have left a nation on edge. Families are skipping meals, children are dropping out of school, and people are losing jobs. The daily struggle to make ends meet has robbed millions of their peace of mind.  

If Nigeria’s leaders are genuinely interested in fostering a nation where everyone can sleep well, they must focus on policies that prioritize the welfare of the people. 

Against the foregoing backdrop, it is expedient to opine that areas that demand immediate attention cut across economic stabilization, transparent use of palliatives, Job Creation and Youth Empowerment, Affordable Healthcare, Education for All and Security and Safety. Another area that demands immediate attention is inclusive governance.

In fact, the soaring cost of living is one of the greatest challenges Nigerians face today. Leaders must implement robust economic policies to stabilize inflation and reduce the burden of daily expenses. This includes, subsidized public transportation, to ease the pressure of high fuel prices on commuters. Also is price controls on essential goods so as to ensure that basic necessities remain affordable for all. Also is the need for support for small businesses, including tax reliefs and grants, to help them survive and thrive in the current economic climate.  

Again, the government should ensure there is always transparent use of palliatives. This is as the government has at different periods announced palliatives to cushion the effects of subsidy removal, but these efforts have been marred by concerns over transparency and equitable distribution. Therefore, leaders must ensure that these palliatives reach those who need them most. This can be achieved by establishing an independent body to oversee the distribution of palliatives.  

The foregoing can be achieved by using technology to track and verify recipients, ensuring the process is transparent and inclusive as well as providing regular updates to the public on the progress and impact of these measures.  

In fact, unemployment remains a significant challenge, especially among Nigeria’s youth. Leaders must focus on creating jobs through policies that encourage investment in sectors like agriculture, technology, and manufacturing. Additionally, vocational training and entrepreneurship programs can empower young people to become self-reliant.  

Without a doubt, access to quality healthcare is a fundamental right, yet many Nigerians cannot afford even basic medical services. The government must invest in healthcare infrastructure and introduce policies that make healthcare affordable and accessible. This includes expanding the National Health Insurance Scheme and ensuring rural communities have access to medical facilities.  

Also, it should not be forgotten that education is the key to breaking the cycle of poverty, yet many children are out of school due to rising costs. Leaders must prioritize education by providing free or heavily subsidized education at the primary and secondary levels, offering scholarships and financial aid for tertiary education. Also is investing in school infrastructure and teacher training to improve the quality of education.  

In a similar vein, no one can sleep well in a nation plagued by insecurity. From banditry to kidnapping, the lack of safety remains a significant concern for Nigerians. The government must strengthen security agencies, improve intelligence gathering, and foster community policing to ensure every Nigerian feels safe in their home.  

In fact, leadership must be inclusive and responsive to the needs of all Nigerians, regardless of their socioeconomic status. Leaders should actively engage with the public through town halls, community visits, and open dialogues to understand their challenges and craft policies that address them.  

Above all, for Nigerian leaders to create a nation where everyone sleeps well, they must embrace a new era of governance that prioritizes the people. This requires empathy. Leaders must understand the struggles of ordinary Nigerians and ensure their policies reflect this understanding.  

Also is for leaders to be exhibiting a high sense of accountability. This is as transparency in governance is essential to rebuild trust between the government and the people. Therefore, Leaders must be held accountable for their actions and promises.  

Similar to the foregoing, leadership must be driven by a clear vision for a prosperous Nigeria, with long-term strategies that address the root causes of the nation’s challenges.  

President Tinubu may sleep well, but true leadership is about ensuring that everyone else does too. The challenges Nigeria faces today are daunting, but they are not insurmountable. With the right policies, actions, and mindset, Nigerian leaders can foster a nation where peace of mind is not a privilege for the few but a right for all.  

The question remains: “Will Nigerian leaders rise to the occasion?” “Will they work toward a future where the struggles of the masses are eased, where opportunities abound, and where every Nigerian, regardless of their status, can sleep well at night?” Until these questions are answered with action, the divide between the leadership and the people will persist, and the dream of a peaceful, prosperous Nigeria will remain just that, a dream.

Social media, once dismissed as a frivolous pastime, has evolved into a powerful tool for communication, commerce, and even activism. Its transformative impact on society and economies worldwide is undeniable. Countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada have already recognized this reality, incorporating social media studies into their university curricula. Yet, Nigerian tertiary institutions appear to lag behind, clinging to traditional approaches that fail to address the dynamic realities of the digital age. To stay relevant in a rapidly changing world, Nigerian universities must embrace social media as a body of knowledge worthy of academic study, placing it under the broader umbrella of Mass Communication.

Globally, institutions like the University of Southern California (USC) and the University of Florida offer specialized programs in social media as part of their communication and media studies departments. USC, for example, provides a Master’s in Digital Social Media, which equips students with the skills to navigate and leverage social platforms for strategic communication. Similarly, Birmingham City University in the UK offers degrees in Social Media Management, underscoring the relevance of these courses in modern education.

These programs explore the multifaceted nature of social media, from its role in shaping public discourse to its impact on marketing strategies. By providing a structured academic framework, they prepare students to harness social media’s potential in diverse fields, including journalism, advertising, public relations, and political communication.

In contrast, Nigerian universities have yet to fully embrace social media as a legitimate field of study. This gap is concerning, given the pervasive role of platforms like Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok in shaping public opinion and driving societal change.

The integration of social media studies into Nigeria’s tertiary institutions is not just an academic necessity but a strategic imperative. Social media is no longer merely a medium for casual interaction; it has become a primary channel for news dissemination, brand communication, and political engagement. 

In fact, there are several reasons why Nigerian universities should prioritize this discipline:

First and foremost, it will prepare students for the Job market. Without a doubt, the global job market is increasingly demanding digital skills, and proficiency in social media is now a critical requirement. Careers in digital marketing, social media management, content creation, and data analytics are flourishing. By offering courses in social media studies, Nigerian universities can equip students with the skills needed to excel in these roles. Graduates would be better prepared to compete for jobs both locally and internationally, addressing Nigeria’s high unemployment rates.

Secondly, social media studies would promote digital literacy. In fact, digital literacy is no longer optional; it is a necessity for navigating the modern world. Social media studies can teach students how to critically analyze online content, distinguish credible sources from misinformation, and responsibly engage with digital platforms. This knowledge is particularly crucial in Nigeria, where the spread of fake news has far-reaching consequences for society and governance.

Without a doubt, social media has proven to be a powerful tool for societal change, from mobilizing voters during elections to organizing protests against injustices. By studying social media, students can learn how to effectively use these platforms to advocate for social justice, promote civic engagement, and contribute to national development. Nigeria’s future leaders need to understand the dynamics of social media to harness its potential for positive change.

The rise of social media has revolutionized entrepreneurship. Many young Nigerians have built successful businesses by leveraging platforms like Instagram and TikTok for marketing and sales. Offering social media courses would provide aspiring entrepreneurs with the tools to effectively brand their businesses, reach their target audiences, and analyze consumer behavior. This would contribute to the growth of Nigeria’s economy by fostering innovation and creating jobs.

Without a doubt, education systems worldwide are evolving to reflect the realities of the digital age. Universities in countries like the United States, Canada, and the UK are already offering specialized programs in social media. By failing to adapt, Nigerian institutions risk falling further behind, making it difficult for their graduates to compete on a global stage. Incorporating social media studies would align Nigerian universities with international standards, enhancing their reputation and attracting more students.

One of the criticisms often leveled at Nigerian tertiary institutions is the disconnect between academic programs and industry needs. Social media studies offer an opportunity to bridge this gap. By collaborating with industry experts and incorporating real-world case studies, universities can ensure that their curricula are relevant and practical. Graduates would leave school with skills that are immediately applicable in the workforce.

Though, there is no denying the fact that social media has its downsides, including cyberbullying, addiction, and the spread of harmful content, but by studying social media, students can gain a deeper understanding of these issues and learn strategies for mitigating them. This knowledge would empower them to use social media responsibly and advocate for ethical practices online.

At this juncture, it is expedient to opine that universities should collaborate with industry experts and international academic institutions to design curricula that address the theoretical and practical aspects of social media. Core subjects could include social media strategy, digital content creation, analytics and metrics, ethics in digital communication, the role of social media in crisis management and case Studies on Social Media Campaigns

In a similar vein, integrating social media as a body of knowledge into Mass Communication should be a matter of urgency as it is indispensable.  In fact, positioning social media studies as a subset of Mass Communication would ensure its seamless adoption, leveraging existing expertise within Nigerian institutions. This approach would also attract students already interested in communication and media studies.

Also, establishing partnerships with tech companies, advertising agencies, and media houses would provide students with practical exposure and real-world experience. Internship opportunities would allow students to apply their knowledge in professional settings, enhancing their employability.

Close to the foregoing viewpoint is that to effectively teach social media studies, universities must invest in modern technology. This includes high-speed internet, multimedia labs, and access to analytics tools. Such investments would not only benefit social media programs but also improve the overall quality of education.

In fact, universities should launch campaigns to educate prospective students and parents about the importance of social media studies. Highlighting success stories of individuals and businesses that have leveraged social media can help dispel misconceptions and generate interest in the field.

On the way forward, it is germane to opine that the world is moving at a breakneck pace, and social media is at the forefront of this transformation. Nigerian tertiary institutions must rise to the occasion by integrating social media studies into their mass communication curricula. By doing so, they will not only keep pace with global educational standards but also equip their students to thrive in an increasingly digital world.

Without a doubt, social media is no longer a luxury; it is a necessity. It is high time Nigerian universities recognized its significance and gave it the academic legitimacy it deserves. By embracing social media studies, they can prepare a generation of students who are not only digitally literate but also capable of leveraging technology for personal, professional, and societal advancement.

The recent election of Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as Namibia’s President has once again highlighted Africa’s capacity to break the glass ceiling for women in leadership. It is a moment worth celebrating and reflecting upon, especially when juxtaposed with the global landscape of female political leadership. Africa, often saddled with stereotypes of patriarchal dominance, emerges as a beacon of hope, challenging and redefining traditional power structures. 

Historically, African continent has demonstrated remarkable openness to women in political positions, with leaders such as Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia, Joyce Banda of Malawi, and Samia Suluhu Hassan of Tanzania paving the way. In comparison, many continents that boast of being bastions of democracy and gender equity lag significantly in electing women presidents or prime ministers. 

The recent U.S. presidential election demonstrated the ongoing gender barriers in global politics, as Americans, despite having a highly qualified candidate in Kamala Harris, chose not to vote for her. Harris, with her extensive political experience and qualifications, was widely regarded as a more competent candidate compared to Donald Trump. Yet, the reluctance to elect a woman to the highest office in the land highlights how even nations that pride themselves on democracy and gender equity often fall short when it comes to breaking the glass ceiling. This stands in stark contrast to African nations like Liberia, Malawi, and Tanzania, where women have risen to leadership positions, proving that gender does not preclude political excellence.

Ostensibly to boost African record in this regard, Namibia’s president-elect, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, will be the first woman to hold the position since the Southern African nation gained independence from South Africa in 1990. Unless the legal challenge mounted by the opposition against the election results giving victory to the ruling SWAPO party succeeds, she will be sworn in as head of state in March next year. 

For the sake of clarity, this piece explores Africa’s historical and current strides in gender inclusivity in political leadership, contrasts this with the global context, and examines why Africa remains the most amenable continent for women presidents.

In fact, Africa’s relationship with female leadership is neither new nor accidental. Historical records reflect the reign of powerful queens and matriarchs, such as Queen Amina of Zazzau, Queen Moremi Ajasoro of Ife, Madam Efunroye Tinubu, Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti, Margaret Ekpo as well Queen Idia and Queen Iden of the ancient Benin Kingdom. 

Apart from notable queens who emerged from Nigeria in the ancient days, there were Queen Nzinga of Ndongo and Matamba (modern-day Angola) and the Dahomey Amazons of present-day Benin. These women were not only political figures but also military strategists and cultural icons, showcasing the continent’s early recognition of women’s capacity to lead.

In modern politics, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s election as Liberia’s President in 2005 marked a watershed moment. As Africa’s first elected female head of state, she ushered in a new era, earning a Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts in women’s empowerment. Joyce Banda of Malawi followed suit, albeit in a transitional capacity, and demonstrated an ability to steer her country through challenging times.

Samia Suluhu Hassan’s ascension to the Tanzanian presidency in 2021 further solidified this trend. Her leadership during a politically turbulent period cemented her reputation as a unifier and a progressive leader. These trailblazers have not only shattered societal expectations but also built a legacy that inspires younger generations of women to aspire for leadership.

Without a doubt, several factors contribute to Africa’s relative openness to women presidents, despite persisting challenges of inequality, and such factors cut across matriarchal and gender-inclusive traditions, activism and women’s movements, legal frameworks and resilience of African women. 

To put it comprehensively, it is germane to opine that while patriarchy is pervasive, many African societies historically had matriarchal systems where women held significant political and social influence. These traditions, albeit eroded in some regions, still resonate in the collective consciousness, creating an environment where female leadership is not entirely alien.

In a similar vein, grassroots activism and the influence of women’s movements across Africa have been instrumental in pushing for political inclusivity. Organizations such as the African Women’s Leadership Network and the African Union’s emphasis on gender parity have created platforms for women to ascend to leadership roles.

Also, many African countries have adopted legal frameworks that promote gender parity in politics. Rwanda, for instance, boasts the highest proportion of women in parliament globally, with over 60% representation. This trend creates a pipeline of experienced female politicians ready to assume presidential roles.

Again, the resilience and resourcefulness of African women, often shouldering the burden of economic sustenance and community leadership, make them natural leaders. Their lived experiences enable them to connect with the electorate on a deeply personal level.

Globally, women leaders remain a rarity. Europe, often perceived as a bastion of progressiveness, has seen its share of female leaders, including Angela Merkel of Germany and Margaret Thatcher of the UK. However, these examples are sporadic and rarely reflective of broader societal acceptance. In the Americas, female presidents such as Dilma Rousseff of Brazil and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina have risen to power, but the U.S., despite its global influence, has yet to elect a woman president.

Asia has a mixed record, with countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh producing iconic female leaders such as Indira Gandhi, Benazir Bhutto, and Sheikh Hasina. However, these leaders often hail from powerful political dynasties, suggesting that societal structures, rather than meritocratic processes, propel their rise.

In stark contrast, Africa’s female leaders often emerge from diverse backgrounds, embodying the potential for broader societal acceptance. For instance, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s journey from exile to presidency exemplifies resilience rather than hereditary privilege. Similarly, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s career trajectory as a diplomat and freedom fighter underscores Africa’s willingness to reward competence and dedication.

While Africa’s progress is commendable, significant challenges remain. Cultural stereotypes, limited access to political funding, and gender-based violence in the political sphere still deter many women from pursuing leadership. Furthermore, the tokenistic inclusion of women in politics, often relegated to symbolic roles, undermines genuine progress.

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s election is a call to action for African nations to address these barriers. Her leadership provides an opportunity to advocate for more comprehensive gender inclusivity across political, economic, and social landscapes.

Africa’s progress in electing women leaders should not merely be a celebratory milestone; it should inspire sustained efforts toward gender equity. Policymakers must prioritize education and leadership training, economic empowerment and political reforms. Put in detailed perspective, it is expedient to opine that investing in programs that nurture young women leaders will create a sustainable pipeline of talent, even as women’s economic autonomy is critical to their political ascension.  In fact, policies promoting financial inclusion and entrepreneurship among women are vital.

In a similar vein, affirmative action policies, like gender quotas, should be complemented with structural reforms to dismantle systemic barriers.

Looking at the issue from global perspective, it is not a misnomer to opine that Africa’s embrace of female presidents is not just a continental achievement; it is a global inspiration. As the world grapples with increasing polarization and governance challenges, the leadership style often exhibited by women, characterized by inclusivity, empathy, and pragmatism,  offers a path forward. 

In the face of global crises, from climate change to economic instability, women leaders like Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah are well-positioned to steer the world toward solutions that prioritize collective well-being over divisive politics.

In fact, the election of Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is not just Namibia’s triumph; it is Africa’s reaffirmation of its capacity to lead the world in gender inclusivity. While challenges persist, the continent’s trajectory offers lessons for others. By celebrating and supporting women in leadership, Africa continues to dismantle archaic power structures and inspire a new era of governance. 

The global community must take note: the future of leadership is female, and Africa is leading the charge.

There is palpable tension in the nation’s aviation sector as the tenure of the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) acting director general, Capt Chris Najomo, expires on Thursday, December 12, 2024.

The minister of aviation and aerospace development, Festus Keyamo, appointed Capt. Najomo in acting capacity on December 13, 2023, after suspending the substantive director-general, Capt Musa Nuhu, over alleged corrupt practices.

However, Section 7 of the federal government’s Public Service Rules on Acting Appointment states that any officer appointed in acting capacity cannot serve more than 12 months in such a position.

The relevant Section 7 of the federal government’s Civil Service Rules also said that recommendations for such an appointee in  acting capacity must be forwarded to the Federal Civil Service Commission and must include a certificate stating that the acting officer would assume the full duties and responsibilities of the post.

With Najomo’s assumption of office in acting capacity on December 13, 2023, according to the civil service rules, his one-year tenure is expected to end today, December 12, 2024.

With this, he is expected to step down from office unless reappointed by the president on the recommendation of the minister on or before December 13, 2024.

However, stepping down from office will create a vacuum in the administration of the nation’s leading regulatory agency in the aviation sector.

The rules added, “The period of acting appointment shall not exceed one year but, in exceptional circumstances, may be extended for another year.”

LEADERSHIP, however, gathered that the substantive DG, Capt Nuhu’s refusal to resign or step down from office delayed Capt. Najomo’s confirmation kept him in the acting position for 12 months.

This is because section 3 of the Manage­ment and Staff of the Authority of NCAA Act 2022 states that the substantive director-general can only be removed from office by the pres­ident, subject to confirmation by the Senate, when he is of unsound mind, absent from five consecutive board meetings without the chairman’s consent unless he shows good reason for such absence, or guilty of serious misconduct.

Other conditions for removal are if the person is disqualified or suspended from practising his profession in any part of the world by an order of a competent au­thority or is in a conflict of interest as stipulated in the First Schedule to the Act, among others.

LEADERSHIP gathered that Capt. Nuhu had assumed office on   February 24, 2020 and that his five-year tenure was expected to end on February 23, 2025.

Speaking on the uncertainty about the agency’s leadership, an industry analyst and former Commandant of Murtala Muhammed Airport (MMA), Lagos, Capt. John Ojikutu said a substantive DG cannot be appointed without Capt Nuhu’s exit.

He wondered why Capt Najomo’s name was not sent to the National Assembly almost 12 months after his appointment.

“I understand that they still have runnings with the issue about Nuhu, and if they refuse to settle, they can’t proceed on Najomo,” Ojikutu argued.

All efforts to speak to the minister on when Najomo’s name will be sent to the Senate for confirmation were futile. At the time of filing this report, text messages sent to the minister, Festus Keyamo, and his spokesman, Tunde Moshood, had not been responded to.

LEADERSHIP reports that stakeholders have been seriously lobbying for Najomo to be confirmed as substantive DG in the last few weeks.

For instance, the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), through its vice president, Allen Onyema, has urged the government to approve Najomo’s appointment as substantive DG.

Onyema, who is also the chairman of Air Peace, said that Najomo’s arrival at the NCAA had revolutionised the sector by ensuring the safety of aircraft and passengers and other topical issues that airlines and airport workers take seriously.

He said, “This man has come into the industry; he is not a novice. This is one of Nigeria’s finest pilots ever created under the sun. Quote me: Captain Chris Najomo is one of the most proficient pilots, not just in Nigeria. He has paid his dues.

“Not only that, but he has also paid his dues in airline management. Don’t forget that he was once the managing director of an airline. So he knows the pains of the operators. On the other hand, you need to go to the NCAA. When you go to the NCAA today, the people are full of smiles because of Najomo. This is the kind of thing nobody should pray to lose. If we take it for granted, our fingers will be burnt.”

 Cargo Airplane Skids-off, Safety Bureau Investigates Incident

The Nigerian Safety Investigation Bureau (NSIB) has launched an enquiry into the runway incident involving a Boeing 737-400 Cargo aircraft at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport (NAIA), Abuja.

Both the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) and the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) confirmed the safety of all crew members after a cargo airplane skidded off the runway at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja.

The aircraft with registration and nationality marks 5N-JRT is operated by Allied Air.

The director of consumer protection and public affairs, Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Michael Achimugu, while confirming the incident, said, “Due to an incident at the Abuja airport, passengers may experience some delays, please be patient and orderly.”

FAAN spokesperson Obiageli Orah said: “At 10:05 am on December 11, 2024, an Allied Air Cargo aircraft with registration number 5N-JRT skidded off Runway 22 at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja with five souls on board with no reported injury. They were all safely evacuated and taken to the FAAN clinic for further checks.”

The FAAN thanked the aviation community and the general public for their understanding and patience and requested that all speculation be put on hold until the preliminary report is released by the Nigeria Safety Investigation Bureau (NSIB).

Director of Public Affairs and Family Assistance Bimbo Oladeji said the incident occurred at approximately 10:06 a.m. local time on Wednesday, December 11, 2024.

“The aircraft, operating as flight AJK206 from Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos, skidded off the right side of Runway 22 into the grass verge after landing. No fatalities or injuries to the crew or ground personnel have been reported.

“The aircraft sustained significant damage. Emergency response teams were promptly deployed to the scene to ensure the safety of all personnel and secure the site.

“The NSIB has initiated an investigation to determine the causal and contributory factors that led to this incident. Our Go Team has been dispatched to the site to conduct an on-site assessment, recover relevant data, and interview involved parties.

[Leadership]

The rejection of President Tinubu’s tax reform package of four main bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Tax Reform Bill” by predominantly northern political leaders, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the Northern Governors Forum and some 73 members of the National Assembly, has once again brought the past to pain by reminding us of our intractable crisis of nation-building.

Predictably, while the bill received the blessing of Ohanaeze, the Igbo socio-cultural group, Afenifere, its Yoruba counterpart and N/Central geopolitical zones who believe the bills represent a transformative opportunity for the rejuvenation of SMES, it was roundly rejected by its northern opponents in spite of the capacity of the bills to “simplify the tax landscape, reduce the burden on small businesses, and streamline tax collection processes”.

But as we say in this business, the medium is the news. Precisely because attack on the opponents of the four bills are coming from southern politicians and social media assailants who hardly understand the issues at stake, I cannot but sympathise with those opponents of the bills who have come under intense stress and strain these past two weeks. They are, in my opinion, the only set of politicians who know what they want out of Nigeria and how to fight for it. They have an unwavering commitment to their demand no matter how sectional or parochial since “Nigerian nationalism became fractured by the dynamics of power politics, or the struggle for the so-called national cake”. (Mogwugo Okoye, African Guardian, Dec 27, 1993).

Many have long concluded that the problem of Nigeria politics is the problem of the dominant ethnic groups, who insist that no one gets what they cannot get, their hypocritical educated elites and their political parties. Of the three competing dominant groups, the confused Yoruba who seem not to know what they want out of Nigeria, is most guilty. It is on record that while the more conservative elements among their celebrated leaders such as Bode Thomas, SLA Akintola and Rotimi Williams, wanted regionalism to protect their Yoruba nation from the reign of one-eyed king, their leader, Obafemi Awolowo, was an unrepentant federalist. This many have argued was because the Yoruba are by nature federalist. Others have also argued that it was because federalism guarantees unity in diversity in deeply divided societies following “the purgatory of two world wars in the 20th century” when federal revolution was regarded “as the only safeguard for peace and stability in a rapidly changing world.” (Daniel Elazer). The less charitable have argued that Awolowo was a victim of his ambition to rule Nigeria having blamed Awolowo for developing  a messianic complex believing he could replicate the giant strides he made in the West. The question northern hegemonic powers who detested Yoruba arrogance, according to Professor Banji Akintoye who recently narrated his encounter with a northern colleague, has always been “who told Awolowo, northern youths wanted free education?”

Of course Awo paid for his audacity. Shortly after Sardauna, Tafawa Balewa and Michael Okpara had mooted the idea of a preventive detention system in the country, Balewa declared state of emergency in the West on May 29, 1962 while Isaac Boro’s Ijaw uprising and Benue/Jos uprising that were suppressed by the military by force of arms did not attract declaration of state of emergency.

Balewa went on to illegally inaugurate Coker Commission of Inquiry to look into the operations of Western Region’s corporations. In case that failed, Balewa also inaugurated treasonable felony probe which later jailed Awo and his supporters. Ahamdu Bello, according to Trevor Clark, “saw an opportunity to do in Awolowo, while the NCNC saw an opportunity to destroy AG and Western Region”. (Trevor Clark: Balewa the Right Honorable Man,  pages (550-554).

The Igbo of the east are perhaps the best at the game of ostrich playing – hiding their heads in the sand believing no one sees them. Their goal, like that of the hegemonic power in the north, is the control of Nigeria. Zik as an Ibo jingoist gave this away in his presidential address to the Ibo Federal Union in 1949 when he declared: “It would appear that God of Africa has specially created the Ibo nation to lead the children of Africa from the bondage of the ages…” In 1948, another Ibo leader and member of the legislature had said the domination of Nigeria by the Ibo is a question of time.

The game plan was promotion of a unitary system in a multi-ethnic society, or in the alternative, splitting the country into unwieldy 17 states that could not sustain themselves and where federating states have no power to eject criminals who import fake drugs into their states or armed immigrant herdsmen who illegally occupy federating states’ reserved forests.

Zik like Awo was also humbled. He allowed northern elite to root for the status quo because it has given them so much in addition to entrenching their hegemony in the nation in spite of creation of smaller state out of the huge former northern region. The north and its political elite have demonstrated that they are by far more astute politicians and more shrewd bargainers. Unlike the Yoruba and Ibo adept at playing the ostrich, they have never pretended about their goal which is Nigeria that would serve as home to stateless Fulani across West Africa.

The north could not have asked for a better supporter than the British colonial masters who in an effort to protect her neo-colonial interest in Nigeria, encouraged and actively aided our northern ruling elite to betray Nigeria. Britain easily acceded to the 1951 northern three points demand: i.e. 50% of membership of the Legislative Council as against 25 for each of the regions,  revenue allocation based on per capita and retaining the boundaries especially between the north and west. (The 1951 census exercise was based largely on assumptions. With the rejection of the 1962 figures by northern leaders, a new census held in 1963 discovered additional 8.5 million people in the north bringing the northern population to 31m).

And just as the 1951 allocation of 50 percent of the total seats in the House of Representatives to the Northern Region meant that only laws acceptable to the region would be passed by the house, today’s opponent of Tinubu’s tax bill are counting on their numerical strength to decide the fate of the bill.

Another demonstration of British support for the north was James Robertson’s decision to call on Balewa to form government on December 15, 1959 with voting returns showing  that NPC was trailing the two other parties by 116  to 150, a decision that rendered the final result of NPC 150 seats  to  the other two parties 162 seats and independent 8, that came later on the December 19 just ‘a force majeure’.

Ahmadu Bello rather than deny that Britain aided the north to hold the nation hostage, explained on page 33 of his book, My Life: The Sardauna of Sokoto that “The British were the instrument of destiny and were fulfilling the will of God in the way they did it all”.

While Zik and Awo kept on playing the ostrich long after the death of nationalism, Prime Minster Balewa who had earlier described Nigeria as a British intention” insisted revenue must be based on need rather than derivation of resources”.

In an answer to those who challenged him to act as a patriot, he had said ‘we are trying to build a mighty house on a foundation of straw … the question I have always asked: do we want Nigeria to be a happy place for everybody or a hell to the masses and a paradise for the few? North would very much like to march with the rest of Nigeria just at a reasonable speed, not at an impossible speed for the north”.

Like their forbears, this is the same message northern critics of Tinubu’s tax bills are passing. The joke is on southern politicians including  Zik, the foremost Nigerian nationalist and celebrated intellectual who told reporters in London in 1957 that he and Ahmadu Bello’s position on the minority issue was taken in the interest of Nigerian unity. Sixty four years after, Nigerians are haunted by the echoes of Zik’s October 1, 1960’s “we are today no more a geographical expression” to deride Awo, his more discerning opponent.

For all his pains, the celebrated Zik of Africa became a titular president, an onlooker while Balewa exercised all powers by virtue of the September 19, 1963 Republican Constitution which abolished the Judicial Service Commission, replaced the Privy Council in London with the Supreme Court as the highest court of appeal, and  the  enactment of  a Preventive Detention Act to restrain personal liberty.

Today, the consolation for Nigerians who love our country is that President Tinubu by his ongoing efforts at walking the tight rope understands the imperative of addressing the national question.

Contrary to assertions by some so-called experts who have been prattling all week that Dele Farotimi wrote what he could not logically substantiate in his book Nigeria and its Criminal Justice System, this was a pre-meditated confrontation. Having depleted the legal means to get justice, he wrote to re-litigate the case in the court of public opinion. He seems calculatedly driven by the Yoruba proverb that says no one dies at the same spot they uttered blasphemy. In the time between your speaking and being punished, much can happen to change social dynamics. From the potpourri of events in the past week, Farotimi got what he wanted. One cannot say the same for Afe Babalola who, by now, would have realised that giving a traducer what they want is not the most prudent battle move. My reading is that Farotimi knew Babalola’s peculiar weakness and worked it to advantage. I will get to that momentarily.

The blowback from this case is another instance that hopefully teaches our elites to rein in their tendency to exploit the warped Nigerian justice system that allows criminal defamation as a legal recourse. Criminal defamation might be legal, but it is unjust. It is a law that exists to regulate the differentials of power and access, one of the many ways rich people further privatise public resources. Since lawmakers are too compromised to expunge the law and law enforcers incapable of the reflexivity that will enlighten them on the stupidity of using state resources to fight an individual over another’s integrity, the best we can do for now is pressure the entitled “big man” not to take that path. In a criminal case, the prosecutor investigates to convict. The Nigerian police, perennially short of resources, spares no expense when sent to prosecute criminal defamation on behalf of another narcissist. Why should the state do that on behalf of an ordinary individual? Babalola, especially, is a man of ample resources, who can afford to fight for his reputation on his own dime.

So, on Friday, Babalola’s legal team held a press conference in Ado Ekiti. Among several things, the lead lawyer Owoseni Ajayi said was: “Those pushing Farotimi are not his friends. By the time they led him to the dungeon, he would realise they were deceiving him. Let me advise his family members to apologise to Aare. Aare Babalola is a builder, not interested in destroying Farotimi.” I was intrigued by what he said it takes for them to call off the police hounds. If someone injured your reputation, and that reputation is truly worth the price you placed on it, why would you not be interested in watching them destroyed? Why would Ajayi, so sure of their victory that he boldly asserted that the only possible conclusion to the case is the dungeon, want to settle for the cheap spectacle of Farotimi’s family members with their clasped hands rolling on the floor and begging?

What sealed the picture for me was an article by Kenneth Ikonne where he, like Ajayi, also urged Farotimi to go “beg” Babalola. According to Ikonne, he had won a preliminary objection against Babalola’s suit—which a lawyer is supposed to do, right? —but he was so intimidated by his own victory against the legal giant that he had to go beg Babalola. While Ikonne’s adulating article drips with flattery, it also unwittingly reveals a kabiyesi-complex. It is an attitude that revels in watching other humans’ heads perpetually bowed in servile reverence so they can repay your self-denigration with overwhelming niceness. Babalola seems like a man who likes to be liked, an attitude is consistently weakening because you must always play nice. Please note that there is a vast difference between being nice because you are a decent human and niceness as manipulation, a means to seduce others into becoming your subject. People of the latter category will take you to the top of the pinnacle, show you the extent of their power and glory, and nicely offer you a portion if only you would bend obsequious knees before them. If you refuse, they will then kick your calves until you fall on your face.

Babalola is so used to a world where junior lawyers who defeat him in court still come to his Ado Ekiti palace to prostrate before him that Farotimi’s boldness to confront him must have been jarring. He resorted to his standard weapons of warfare, but as he must have also found out in the past week, the battle terrain has changed. Even if he wins the case, what will be the social value of a reputation held up by the courts? If Farotimi begs him as his lawyer and others have enjoined, what is done cannot be undone.

However, this goes down, I commend Farotimi’s boldness. We all agree that the Nigerian judiciary is rotten, but the logic of producing rational evidence has made it virtually impossible to progress beyond merely abstract observations. Until we begin to mention names and point accusing fingers at specific people, the issues will remain intractable. Statistically, Nigerian judges and magistrates are the highest receivers of bribes in 2023, beating even the Customs/Immigration! This is according to the NBS. Those who facilitated these transactions are not ghosts. We have all been witnesses to the several instances where retiring judges have severely deplored the rot in the judiciary. It is amusing to see some people pretending Farotimi revealed what they did not already know.

Our society maintains an overly reverential attitude toward people who have money and power, and are elderly. When a person combines all three, we are virtually cowed before their almighty presence. Otherwise, why can we not ask, if defamation is an offence that supposedly lessens someone’s reputational worth, what exactly would constitute it in the case of persons who have practised law in morally decrepit and with progressively weakened institutions like Nigeria for 60-plus years? Which of the atrocities that presently bedevils the country does not have the hands of the so-called learned class in it? This is not to disparage the legal profession or caricature lawyers, but we cannot talk about what is wrong with Nigeria today without the role lawyers have played in vandalising the temple of justice. From the so-called “legal luminaries” who—through endless frivolous election petitions—rendered democracy incoherent to the ones with the “SAN” appendage to their names who fraternise with politicians, they remade the country in their amoral image.

We were all here when a partner in the firm of a high-profile lawyer solicited the client of another, saying their principal’s political influence would “significantly switch things in favour” of the prospective client. While that woman was disowned and eventually debarred, it was a moment of self-revelation as to how the justice system operates. Big names in the legal system do not necessarily correspond with a deep knowledge of the law. It just means they know which judge to buy and which string to pull. We witnessed a lawmaker publicly admitting that his judge’s wife helped his colleagues win their various cases. In a serious country, every case that a woman adjudicated would have been recalled and scrutinised, but this is Nigeria. Nothing ever happens here. This is the utterly compromised ecosystem in which Babalola has practised law and thrived to the point he built a magnificent university. He was also a lawyer and confidant to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, whose administration reputation was thoroughly corrupt. Nobody, not even the staunchest of his defenders, has said of Farotimi’s allegations that “it cannot possibly be true”.  What they all say is, “It cannot be proven,” and that is telling enough.

Given the contradictions of his profession, Babalola should have been circumspect enough to not jump into a public contest over his reputation. He seems to me like a man who has invested in being nice just so that he would not be remembered as a villain in Nigeria’s story. Now he is no longer the man with the carefully curated legacy who set out to redeem his image but the one who proved his critic right.

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee and the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission are locked in a dispute over the constitutional rights to administer and allocate Value Added Tax revenues in the country, The PUNCH has learnt.

While both entities support the need for tax reforms, their positions differ sharply on the constitutional interpretation and implications for revenue sharing.

The RMAFC has maintained that VAT allocation should strictly adhere to the principles of fairness and equity outlined in the 1999 Constitution.

In a memo to the National Assembly, which was seen by The PUNCH, the commission emphasised its constitutional mandate to determine revenue-sharing formula and cautioned against any arbitrary changes that could disrupt the VAT allocation system.

A part of the memo read, “Section 162 (2) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended) empowers the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission to determine the formula for the equitable sharing of revenue among the three tiers of government. Ensure that such formula reflects the principles of fairness and justice.  The Constitution therefore made RMAFC the empire arbiter in matters of revenue allocation for the three tiers of government.

“The Constitution, being supreme, does not envisage that any other Act of Parliament such as the VAT Act could assume this responsibility. Any such attempt would contravene the Constitution. Therefore, the RMAFC remains the sole arbiter in producing allocation formulae that are fair, just, and equitable for the three tiers of government; any deviation from a formula crafted by the RMAFC risks violating constitutional provisions and undermining the Commission’s role as the impartial arbiter of revenue allocation in Nigeria.”

It further argued that VAT, as a consumption tax, must be distributed in a way that supports less economically developed states to ensure national cohesion and stability.

In contrast, Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, contended that VAT predated the 1999 Constitution and was fundamentally a state tax.

This is according to a statement he shared on his X (formerly Twitter) page on Wednesday.

In the statement, he argued that VAT’s design as a consumption tax meant its administration and allocation should reflect its nature.

Oyedele also pointed out that the existing system, which allocated 85 per cent of VAT revenue to states and local governments, already reinforced its classification as a state tax.

His statement read, “The tax predates the 1999 Constitution and despite having been in operation for over five years, the tax is not mentioned in the 1999 Constitution, making it a residual matter within the purview of the states.

“As a result of the above, VAT is paid into a special pool account and not treated along with the other revenues accruable to the federation for which the RMAFC is expected to play an advisory role regarding the sharing formula as contained in section 162 of the 1999 Constitution.

“A similar revenue item is stamp duties which also belong to states and it is meant to be shared among them based on 100 per cent derivation without any requirement for the RMAFC to be involved in determining the sharing formula.”

VAT was introduced in 1993 to replace the state-administered sales tax system, with the goal of broadening Nigeria’s tax base and modernising its revenue framework.

Initially set at five per cent, the VAT rate was raised to 7.5 per cent in 2020 as part of measures to boost non-oil revenue.

Over the years, VAT has grown to become a critical revenue source, managed centrally by the Federal Inland Revenue Service.

Under the current revenue-sharing formula, 15 per cent of VAT is allocated to the Federal Government, 50 per cent to states, and 35 per cent to local governments.

However, states like Rivers and Lagos have criticised the existing system and called for a derivation-based model that allocates revenues based on consumption within their jurisdictions.

In its memo to the National Assembly, RMAFC expressed its support for the proposed tax reform bills but highlighted significant concerns over the application of the derivation principle to VAT.

It argued that VAT revenues should be shared equitably to provide financial support to weaker states, warning that arbitrary changes could undermine the country’s unity.

The commission also pointed to administrative challenges in tracking VAT consumption across states, citing the lack of robust digital infrastructure to monitor consumption patterns effectively.

Oyedele, however, rejected some of the points raised by the RMAFC.

He clarified that the horizontal distribution of VAT among states is determined by a formula that allocates 20 per cent based on derivation, 50 per cent on equality, and 30 per cent on population, a different framework from what the RMAFC previously cited.

He also dismissed claims that advanced technology was required to track VAT consumption, asserting that existing input-output VAT mechanisms were sufficient.

The statement noted, “There is no need for any technology to track the location of consumption, every eligible business will simply be required to indicate the location of sales in its VAT returns as stipulated under section 22(12) of the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill. It is not necessary to tag VAT collections to end-user locations from sale to consumption, neither is it practical to do so. After all we may not be able to tag services or creative work that are digitally delivered as intangible goods.

“The horizontal distribution of VAT revenue among states is not based on a formula of 50 per cent derivation, 35 per cent population and 15 per cent equality as stated by the commission but rather 20 per cent derivation, 50 per cent equality and 30 per cent population.”

Also, Oyedele cautioned that decentralising VAT administration would likely result in significant revenue losses for many states, disrupt interstate commerce and heighten fiscal risks.

He said, “Moving away from the central collection of VAT will not only lead to significant revenue loss of over 50 per cent for all the states, they will also face challenges in collecting VAT as evident from the old sales tax regime administered by states and the consumption tax being collected currently by some states.”

Both RMAFC and the Presidential Committee have called for constructive dialogue to address the VAT allocation controversy.

Proposed solutions include the development of a VAT formula that balances derivation, equity, and consumption; engaging stakeholders from all levels of government; amending VAT laws to clarify ambiguities; and improving digital infrastructure to enhance transparency and accountability in VAT collection and allocation.

In a related development, the National Bureau of Statistics disclosed that a total of N4.77tn was earned from Value Added Tax on local, foreign and imported goods and services within the first nine months of 2024.

An analysis of the VAT sectorial reportt released by the NBS revealed a sharp increase in VAT revenue for the first nine months of 2024, with collections soaring by 95.76 per cent compared to the same period in 2023.

The data shows total VAT receipts for the nine-month period in 2024 amounted to N4.77tn, significantly higher than the N2.44tn recorded during the corresponding period last year.

Breaking down the figures, VAT collections in the first quarter of 2024 were N1.43tn, nearly double the N709.59bn generated in Q1 2023.

This upward trend continued into the second quarter, with collections reaching N1.56tn compared to N781.35bn in Q2 of the previous year.

By the third quarter, VAT revenue had climbed to N1.78tn, surpassing the N948.07bn recorded in Q3 2023.

The surge in VAT revenue has been attributed to a combination of factors, including naira devaluation, rising inflation, and improved tax compliance.

The sharp depreciation of the naira has increased the naira-equivalent value of taxable goods and services, especially those involving imports or priced in foreign currencies.

Additionally, persistently high inflation, which has driven up the cost of goods and services, has naturally translated into higher VAT collections since the tax is based on consumption value.

[Punch]

Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the United Kingdom (UK) Conservative Party, says she is not interested in laundering the image of Nigeria after Vice-President Kashim Shettima criticised her for denigrating the country.

Badenoch was born in the UK in 1980 to Nigerian Yoruba parents. She returned to Nigeria, where she grew up. Badenoch finally departed for the UK when she turned 16.

Before she was elected leader of the Conservative Party, Badenoch described Nigeria as a socialist nation brimming with thieving politicians and insecurity.

“This is my country. I don’t want it to become like the place I ran away from,” she said.

“I grew up in Nigeria, and I saw firsthand what happens when politicians are in it for themselves, when they use public money as their private piggy banks, when they pollute the whole political atmosphere with their failure to serve others.

“I saw what socialism is for millions. I saw poverty and broken dreams. I came to Britain to make my way in a country where hard work and honest endeavour can take you anywhere.”

Badenoch also said she “grew up in a place where fear was everywhere. You cannot understand it unless you’ve lived it. Triple-checking that all the doors and windows are locked, waking up in the night at every sound, listening as you hear your neighbours scream as they are being burgled and beaten, wondering if your home would be next”.

On Monday, Vice-President Kashim Shettima hit back at Badenoch, accusing her of denigrating Nigeria.

Shettima compared Badenoch to Rishi Sunak, a “brilliant young man” who “never denigrated his nation of ancestry”.

Former Prime Minister Sunak hails from India.

However, a spokesperson for Badenoch said the politician stood by her statement.

“Kemi is not interested in doing Nigeria’s PR; she is the leader of the opposition in the UK,” the spokesperson said.

“She tells the truth. She tells it like it is. She’s not going to couch her words, and she stands by what she says.”

Shettima had urged Badenoch to change her first name if she no longer wanted to identify with her homeland.

Born Olukemi Adegoke to Nigerian parents, the lawmaker married Hamish Badenoch, a Scottish banker, and took her husband’s surname.

[TheCable]

The moment I stepped out of church last Sunday and checked my phone, I saw a missed call from my friend, Mustapha Sanah (HRH Dalun-Lana Tapha Mahamadu II). He had left a terse message: “Prepare for inauguration.” I surmised that former President John Dramani Mahama and candidate of the main opposition National Democratic Coalition (NDC) had won the Ghanaian presidential election held last Saturday. In my conversation with Mahama at his Accra residence on Friday, 20th September, he predicted he would win the election and promised that I would be his guest at the inauguration. (https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2024/09/26/ghanas-future-beyond-jollof-rice/)

But before I could respond to Mustapha, breaking news flashed on my mobile phone that the 54-year-old father-and-son dictatorship in Syria had been upended by rebel forces. President Bashar al-Assad had reportedly fled Damascus, leaving his country in tatters. The fall of Assad is a testament to the fragility of power that is neither ennobling nor geared towards the common good. “As recently as 2010, Syria had a higher per capita income than many of its neighbours. Since 2011, well over half a million have died and several million displaced,” according to Nilanthan Niruthan, a defense analyst and researcher at Columbia University, United States. “The UNHCR estimated earlier this year that at least 90% of the Syrian population live under the poverty line, conditions which would have certainly worsened in the last week.”

While it remains to be seen how the disparate rebel groups in Syria will work together to govern the war-torn country, the consequences of toppling Assad are far-reaching. “The Arab Spring started in Tunisia (in 2011) but claimed scalps in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen,” argues Dr Michale Rubin, a director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum and former Pentagon official. “Assad’s ouster and similar dynamics in some regional countries may soon claim scalps of other long-term dictators.” I hope that message will resonate on a continent where 91-year-old Paul Biya of Cameroon has been president for the last 42 years despite being marooned mostly in a Geneva, Switzerland hotel; 82-year-old Teodore Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea has been in power for the past 45 years; 80-year-old Yoweri Museveni has ruled Uganda for the past 38 years and Isaias Afwerki has been the first and only president of Eritrea since independence in 1993. The message will also serve many others, including Faure Gnassingbe of Togo who succeeded his father, Gnassingbe Eyadema two decades ago and appears to be plotting for his son to succeed him.

There is a way in which we can connect what happened in Ghana and Syria because both have to do with power and popular will. But for the benefit of Nigerian politicians who may have a superficial reading of Mahama’s victory, the first thing they must understand is the discipline of Ghana’s politicians and the strength of their political parties. The Independent National Electoral (INEC) Chairman, Mahmood Yakubu alluded to this earlier in the week. “Rarely in Ghana do you see people moving from one party to another with every general election,” Yakubu said. “There are people who have supported political parties for many years. So, whether the party is in power or opposition, they stick to the political party.”

That, of course, is not the situation in Nigeria where expediency rather than principle dictates our politics. For instance, many of the politicians who were either in the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or Labour Party (LP) before the last election have moved to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). In a milieu in which public service has been reduced to ‘eating’, a politician can be a PDP member in the morning, decamp to the LP in the afternoon and by evening, he could be attending the APC meeting as the board of trustees’ chairman! In the past few days, five LP members and one PDP member in the House of Representatives have decamped to the APC. Quite naturally, the one who attracted the most attention is Donatus Matthew, the commercial motorcycle (Okada) rider who defeated a fourth-term member in Kaura Federal Constituency of Kaduna State. When you move from riding Okada to cruising around in a N160 Million SUV within a matter of weeks, what is the big deal about dumping the party on which you came to power, even if the law is not on your side?

The situation is different in Ghana which perhaps explains why the election of Mahama came as no surprise. The foundation was laid four years ago at the 2020 presidential election. Although Mahama (president between 2012 and 2016) lost the last election, his party (NCC) took 31 parliamentary seats from the ruling NPP. With both parties winning the same number of seats (137 each) resulting in a hung parliament, the lone independent candidate, Andrew Asiamah Amoako supported the NDC candidate, Alban Sumana Kingsford Bagbin, to emerge as speaker. If that was Nigeria, not only would the lone independent candidate pitch tent with the ruling party but many members from the opposition party would also have followed him to decamp. Besides, can anyone imagine a Nigerian President in a similar scenario allowing the lawmakers to pick their presiding officer without interference, as then re-elected President Nana Akufo-Ado did? If it were here, even the court would be deployed in a diabolic manner to give comfort to the ruling party!

In its statement on the Ghana election, the PDP said it portends an ominous omen for the APC at the coming 2027 poll. “The verdict of the people of Ghana in this presidential election is a signal to the APC that its days in office are numbered as the power of the people in Nigeria, just like in Ghana, will surely prevail, end APC’s oppressive rule and return Nigeria to the path of good governance, security, political stability and economic prosperity on the platform of the PDP in 2027,” according to a statement by the PDP National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba. But what the PDP must understand is that defeating an incumbent (ruling party) requires the creation of a strategic coalition in which personal ambitions would be sacrificed for group goals. Unfortunately, I have not seen any such effort from the opposition parties in Nigeria whose leaders seem not to have learnt any lesson from the last election won by the incumbent with just 37 percent of the total vote cast.

I spent my one-year Fellow’s programme at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University (during the 2010/2011 academic session) researching why it is so difficult for candidates of ruling parties to lose elections in Africa. In the process, I discovered that competitive presidential elections held on the continent in the preceding two decades resulted only in four percent defeat and 96 percent victory for the ruling parties. When I applied the principle to the rest of the world, I found the same trend. Ruling parties (and incumbents) were defeated at the polls in only seven percent of cases, winning 93 percent of the time. At the end, I was able to identify fractionalized opposition as the main factor in competitive elections.

As I was working on the paper, which I eventually titled “Divided opposition as boon to African incumbents” (https://scholarsprogram.wcfia.harvard.edu/publications/divided-opposition-boon-african-incumbents), Nigeria was preparing for the 2011 general election that had then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan standing against Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd). Feeble attempts to form an opposition platform around Buhari and (current president) Bola Tinubu had collapsed. So, when the election held and Buhari lost, I adapted my research paper to write an article which I titled “Divided They Run, United They Lose: How Fractionalized Opposition Strengthens African Incumbents”.

In the piece, I stated clearly that Buhari should not locate his defeat on rigging or the factor of incumbency but rather on his (Buhari’s) inability to build a credible opposition coalition. “While not advocating against the legal option already taken by a section of the Nigerian opposition, my contention is that it is more productive for them to begin to plan and organize for future elections. The perennial narrative that they are rigged out by the ruling party is becoming hollow,” I wrote for THISDAY in May 2011 at a period I was still in the United States. “In a milieu where political parties are not only weak but also lack financial wherewithal with no ideology binding members together, forging an electoral alliance is a long and arduous task. Waiting till weeks or days to the election to begin the process for such an alliance is therefore no more than an open invitation to a sure defeat.”

Four years later, my thesis proved accurate when the same opposition parties galvanised to form a special purpose vehicle (SPV) now called APC to win the 2015 presidential election. While the political system in Ghana is not perfect, they have erected certain moral guardrails for their politicians and public office holders that we have not succeeded in doing. I highlighted a few in my September column, ‘Ghana’s Future: Beyond Jollof Rice’, following my visit to the country. Like Nigeria, Ghana is a multiparty democracy. But their politicians have coalesced around two strong parties with distinct ideologies. Therefore, to achieve the kind of alternation that has strengthened democracy in Ghana, our politicians must muster the discipline to enthrone a two-party structure. In their own enlightened interest, Nigerian politicians must also works towards that if our democracy is to survive and thrive.

Meanwhile, there is a way in which we can connect the election of Mahama in Ghana to the toppling of Assad in Syria. The former is about popular democracy anchored on the will of the people and the latter, a fall-out of a charade in which citizens were conscripted to legitimise a compromised process that had nothing to do with the public good. We must learn from both countries. Without any doubt, the political system in Ghana is miles ahead of Nigeria’s. Our politicians are a mixed bag of cheap crooks and a few good people. That explains why violence and fraud have become part of the DNA of our politics while the industrialization of electoral disputes has become a revenue source for a corrupt arm of the judiciary. In Syria, the fate that ultimately befell Assad should serve as a cautionary tale for Nigeria regarding the consequence of a leadership living above and removed from the deprivation of the populace.

Just three years ago in May 2021, Assad (whose father ruled Syria for 30 years until his death in 2000) won a fourth term in office with 95.1% of the votes in a sham election that extended his rule till 2028. From being a maximum ruler with power of life and death over citizens, Bashar Al-Assad is now no more than a fugitive in Russia where he has been granted political asylum. Perhaps the signature lesson of his fall, for those in leadership positions who exhibit insensitivity and callous indifference to the plight of their people, is the transient nature of power. And nobody can forever evade accountability.

• You can follow me on my X (formerly Twitter) handle @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com   

…Dangote Refinery, Neptune Oil Announce their first export transaction of Refined Products to Cameroon

In a landmark move for regional energy integration, Dangote Refinery and Neptune Oil jointly announced the first-ever export of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from Dangote Refinery, Africa's largest oil refinery, to Cameroon.

This milestone, resulting from a strategic collaboration between the two companies, underscores their commitment to strengthening economic ties between Nigeria and Cameroon while meeting the region's growing energy demands… Alhaji Aliko Dangote, President and CEO of the Dangote Group, stated: “This first export of PMS to Cameroon is a tangible demonstration of our vision for a united and energy-independent Africa. With this development, we are laying the foundation for a future where African resources are refined and exchanged within the continent for the benefit of our people.”

Antoine Ndzengue, Director and Owner of Neptune Oil emphasized: “This partnership with Dangote Refinery marks a turning point for Cameroon. By becoming the first importer of petroleum products from this world-class refinery, we are bolstering our country’s energy security and supporting local economic development. This initial supply, executed without international intermediaries, reflects our commitment to serving our markets independently and efficiently.”

The collaboration between Dangote Refinery and Neptune Oil does not end with this first export. Both companies are exploring new initiatives to establish a reliable supply chain that will help stabilize fuel prices and create new economic opportunities across the region.

A Major Regional Impact
For Nigeria, this export showcases Dangote Refinery’s ability to meet domestic needs and position itself as a key player in the regional energy market. It represents a significant step forward in accessing high-quality and locally sourced petroleum products for Cameroon.

About Dangote Refinery
Located in Lagos, Nigeria, Dangote Refinery is the largest single-train refinery in the world, with a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. It is a flagship project of the Dangote Group, which is dedicated to transforming Africa’s energy landscape.

About Neptune Oil
Neptune Oil is a leading energy company in Cameroon, committed to providing reliable and sustainable energy solutions. Through collaborations with international partners, Neptune Oil plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth in the region.