“The reason we talk today is the reason we counseled yesterday against replacing destroyers with predators. We said last year do not vote for election, vote for structure. Let us break down this house and rebuild it so that we can all be safe. “It is very difficult, indeed almost impossible, to maintain liberty in a republic that has become corrupt or to establish it there anew” (Machiavelli). We ignored structure and everyone gave their electoral waist beads to their own child. Votes were reduced to abject ornaments for voluptuous behinds. Machiavelli wrote again, “people are often misled to desire their own ruin.”

“All music comes from Africa,” African pop singer, Angélique Kidjo, told an interviewer in 2023. Kidjo’s dad is Fon; her mum is Yoruba. Kidjo waxed lyrical. She said she came from a culture “where you spend 10 minutes saying good morning, how is your father? How is your grandmother?” In every story, every conversation, there is at least a song. And that includes Kidjo’s ten-minute greetings. I feel her. As a Yoruba, I am expected to make anything sing. The unpleasant, if sung the right way, will be good music. That is why we are advised to laugh at any occurrence the severity of which sobbing and weeping cannot redeem. And, so, in spite of everything, the time to sing, dance and laugh is now.

At 4.50 pm on 29 May, 2023, a lady of influence tweeted: “You either accept Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR and Kashim Shettima GCON as your president & vice president respectively or join the wailers for the next 4 years, at least, or 8 years. And if you ask me, wailing for 8 years will be emotionally exhausting. If a new Nigeria is your concern, you’ll pray to God to guide our leaders right irrespective of the party you belong in.”

That was a few hours after Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu became president and pronounced “subsidy gone.”

Fast forward to 10:30 am on 9 September, 2024. The X influencer tweeted: “I am fully committed to campaigning for and supporting any better candidate who can defeat this government in 2027, regardless of their party. For me, removing PBAT is a personal mission and a priority. In shaa Allah.”

Our lady has clearly violated the 4-years-or-8-years timeline she gave us just one short year ago. What has changed that has soured the romance?

In case you are scouring the ocean beds in search of what crime the president committed which has cost him the love of this prime supporter, a window opened at 11:23am on 15 October, 2024. The lady tweeted: “Are we really just going to sit back and accept that spending 100,000 Naira a week on fuel is now the norm? That’s 400,000 Naira a month. How many of us can actually afford this? And meanwhile, electricity costs have shot up by nearly 400%. Are we okay with being drained financially just to survive, or are we ready to question why we’re being squeezed like this?”

The last time I checked, the above tweet had attracted almost 800,000 views. Many who replied to the lady’s tweets abused her. They shouldn’t have. When Saul came back from Damascus and became Paul, how was he received? I commend this lady for her forthrightness. At least, unlike others, she didn’t subscribe to John Milton’s fallen character in ‘Paradise Lost’ who loses and shouts: “…farewell hope, and with hope farewell fear” but goes ahead to yell “Farewell remorse: all good to me is lost; Evil be thou my good.” To that Miltonic character, repentance and remorse are too high a price to pay for whatever sin he had committed. The lady here is one of millions with blisters of buyer’s remorse under their skirts. But she came out to yell and bail out of the abusive love. I commend her. Out of the eight million who voted in this government, there must now be at least seven million sipping the ale of regret quietly in public but cursing King Macbeth privately under their creaky beds. Evil should stop being their good. Because of tomorrow, their buyer’s remorse should stop pressing the mute button.

In 1994, Angélique Kidjo released ‘Agolo’ an album that contains the song: ‘Orio rio/ Ola djou monké n’lo/ Ola djou monké/ Ola djou monké n’lo’. What is she saying? The wordings are obviously in her Quidah, Benin Republic Yoruba. The Oyo-Yoruba in me has no difficulty in situating the root of the lyrics in one of her mum’s folksongs, ‘Ori Ori o Olajumoke nlo…’ There is a story behind that song. And this is where I am going. The folksong rose to meet me when I read the tweets I started this piece with.

The ‘Olajumoke’ song is a lyricised Yoruba folk story about the consequences of rash choices. It says that if you are going to choose a husband or wife, open your eyes, the inner and the outer. The dude you are dying to have may be an empty tin (agolo/pangolo), an àgbá òfìfo (empty barrel).

The story goes that Olajumoke was the most beautiful girl in the village and she knew it. Suitors came after suitors. None was handsome enough to match the taste of the fussy, finicky damsel.

One bright sunny day, a very handsome young man sauntered into the marketplace. The dude is a complete stranger, the type the clairvoyant would see and describe as a beautiful snake. The enchanting young man’s out-of-this-world elegance charmed Olajumoke. The strangeness of his person and his suspicious entry did not alarm Olajumoke. They instead combined to disarm her. She melted and commenced a session of comely stalking, and followed the love of her life up and down the market.

The sun was going down; buying and selling was over. Bobo Handsome commenced his exit from the market but noticed this beautiful girl following him. He asked why. Olajumoke broke all rules and protocols of village romance. She toasted the unknown man of uncommon allure. “Let us be husband and wife.” The strange man was forthright. He couldn’t marry her. “I am Orí (head), a complete stranger here. My place is beyond the Blue Sea (Odò Aró) and even far after the Red Sea (Odò Èjè). You can see that we cannot be husband and wife.”

Because love is blind, Olajumoke would have none of what the stranger was saying. Remember Angélique’s line:

“Ifé ayé ilé /Igbadoun foun ayé (Love in this world is strong/ It is pleasure for the world)”.

The lady of beauty insisted she would follow the strange man to wherever on earth. Then Orí, the young man, lunged into a burst of songs. “Leave me/ If you don’t turn back, we will get to the Sea of indigo/ If you don’t leave, we will reach the Sea of blood…”

The lady of our story did not heed the warnings, neither did she contemplate a change of resolve. She must marry this man of means and colour. That was how she followed a complete stranger on a journey of love. It was a long trek across daylight and moonlight. Then, they reached and crossed the Blue Sea. Soon, they reached and crossed the Red Sea. Then, things moved very fast for the lovey-dovey girl. It turned out that everything that gave the man elegance was borrowed. He started dropping the parts one by one where he got them. He started with his arms, and then his legs. The spirits that loaned them to him got back their properties. Then the torso, the flesh, the hairs and the nails. Every minute part was a borrowed item and the lender got back their properties. Orí is no longer what we call head. What he is is one ugly, scary skull. Now, beautiful girl knew she was in deep trouble. She is married to a Skull – deathly and deadly. She no do again. She told Orí but the ex-handsome man said it was too late; their romance was till death do them part.

Skull did what captors do with their victims. To ensure his ‘wife’ did not escape, Orí decided to ‘bell’ her with waist beads. Each time beautiful Olajumoke attempted to run away, the beads alerted the husband, jingling: “Ori Ori o Olajumoke nlo (Skull, Skull, Olajumoke is running away).” How did this girl get back her freedom? Did she ever get a reprieve? Well, the conclusions are as varied as the storytellers and where they belong.

How Olajumoke chose her husband is the way we choose our leaders. The signs are always there that the masquerade we are costuming will most certainly snatch the singlet we have as our only garment. Like Mr. Skull, they do not hide who they are. The parts that make up their bodies of intelligence are unreal; they are borrowed. The only parts that are truly theirs are the fingers – for counting billions.

“Omo eni kò sè’dí bèbèrè” was the battle cry of Tinubu’s campaigners in Yorubaland last year. Everything was reduced to beads (ìlèkè) and bottoms (ìdí). Any Yoruba person who campaigned against the child of the house was a bastard. We asked the past why it invented (ìlèkè ìdí) (waist beads) for girls only. The past told us it was for reasons of beauty – rounded hips, slim waists, etc. We asked what else? We are told the beads also tell which girl is chaste and which is not – or likely to be not. The loose loosen their waists; they walk and roll the beads pushing the world into libidinous wars. Where such is seen, waywardness robs such girls of parental adornments. That was why some of us insisted in 2023 that not all omo and their big bottoms deserved the land’s ìlèkè. But they said our mouths smelt bad. What did we know?

The reason we talk today is the reason we counseled yesterday against replacing destroyers with predators. We said last year do not vote for election, vote for structure. Let us break down this house and rebuild it so that we can all be safe. “It is very difficult, indeed almost impossible, to maintain liberty in a republic that has become corrupt or to establish it there anew” (Machiavelli). We ignored structure and everyone gave their electoral waist beads to their own child. Votes were reduced to abject ornaments for voluptuous behinds. Machiavelli wrote again, “people are often misled to desire their own ruin.”

When Sani Abacha took over the government in 1993, people clapped for the kingmaker who had made himself king. They said he was a wrong-righter. When by 1994 it became clear Abacha was determined to sit still on the June 12 election and the mandate it conferred, MKO Abiola went philosophical: Ìlèkè tó sò’dí òpòló ni ejò gbé wò yí o (a string of beads is found to be too large for Toad’s waist, Snake now goes for it). It is the same today. Check toad, check snake, measure their waists, solve the riddle.

Some regime backers, last week, told the newspaper columnist to stop his criticisms of the president and his bumbling presidency. “Provide solutions,” the persons yelled in forwarded messages. Well, the columnist did not campaign last year to be beaded with power. The columnist’s duty is to tell the king that he is naked. If the naked, his clothiers and courtiers do not know the solution to the nakedness, then, what else is there to say other than sing in musician Lagbaja’s voice: “Mo sorri fun gbogbo yin l’okookan.”

I am not done with Angélique Kidjo and the interview in which she spoke the words I quoted earlier. It is in the 29 June, 2023 edition of The Telegraph of the U.K. In her words is a warning to the ‘victorious’ to know how very slippery the mountaintop is. The powerful who think they stand firm and therefore could betray the ground that holds their ladder should hear out Angélique: “I didn’t get here because I decided to be number one. I got here because people decided to listen to me. The people who put you up here, well, they can always pull you down.” Wisdom. But ‘they’ won’t listen. Their ears are like Ori’s body parts – borrowed – and collected back by the lenders.

The Defence Headquarters (DHQ) wishes to clarify that it has not announced the appointment of any senior officer as the acting Chief of Army Staff (COAS), contrary to speculation by certain media outlets. For the record, no such appointment exists within the Armed Forces of Nigeria (AFN).

The Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Taoreed Lagbaja, is currently on a well-deserved rest as part of his 2024 annual leave. The AFN is professionally managed and all the Service Chiefs are performing their duties as stipulated in the Constitutionof the FGN. Major General Abdulsalam Bagudu Ibrahim, the Chief of Policy and Plans, is providing routine briefs to the COAS in accordance with standard military procedures.

The DHQ urges individuals spreading unfounded rumours to desist from doing so immediately. The COAS is hale and hearty and will soon resume normal duties at the end of his leave.  

Media organizations are advised to verify information with the appropriate authorities before releasing fake news to the public. The CDS had only spoken with the COAS a few minutes ago.

Additionally, those advocating for a military takeover, as seen in a viral video, should be aware that such actions are treasonable under the Constitution.

The AFN is steadfastly committed to the preservation and advancement of our democracy and are loyal to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration. The military remains focused on achieving its statutory responsibilities of protecting the nation's integrity. 

The relative peace being enjoyed today is a direct result of the President's support for the military and the dedication of the AFN leadership. 

To this end, the AFN and relevant security agencies have been mandated to take necessary action against any individual or group advocating for unconstitutional changes in the country. The CDS appreciates Nigerians for their support and prayers. Victory is assured.

Signed

TUKUR GUSAU  

Brigadier General  

Director Defence Information  

It is with great sadness that I announce the passing of my devoted Special Assistant, Mr. Ndifreke Saviour Mark, who was with me for no less than 34 years.

He left home at 5.40am on the morning of Sunday 13th October for morning Mass as he was a devoted Catholic and member of the Catholic Church of Assumption, Asokoro after which he went to a hotel by the name of Mildy Lodge and Apartments in Garki, Abuja.

According to the police he took a room at the hotel and spent some time there with an individual after which he apparently slumped and died in that individual's presence.

He was taken to Asokoro District Hospital, was pronounced dead upon arrival and has since been put in the hospital morgue. 

The individual he was with at the time of his death in the hotel is now in police custody and I have insisted on a full criminal investigation of the matter and an autopsy.

The hotel receptionist has also been detained by the police whilst both the manager and the owner of the hotel were invited for questioning earlier this week.

The entire hotel was also sealed up by the police for two days and the room in which he lodged remains sealed till today.

I have broken the sad news to his family, I have met with his wife Barrister Patience Ndifreke-Mark and his Uncle, Mr. Clement Mathias, (who represented his family) and I have also told them of my intention to ensure that, if indeed there is any foul play, justice is done and those behind it are brought to book.

Mark was like a son to me and his passing is a huge blow to me and my entire family. 

We shared many dreams and aspirations and fought many battles together shoulder to shoulder.

Now he has gone it has left much pain but I give thanks to God for his life and for the 52 years that he spent on earth.

I have assured his wife and family of my intention to stand by them at this difficult time and to ensure that they do not lack or want for anything.

I have absolute confidence in the FCT Police Command to get to the bottom of this matter after which we can proceed to bury a man that was my most loyal staff and most trusted aide.

Most important of all is the fact that he was a kind, reliable and compassionate soul who brought joy to many and who was incapable of hurting a fly.

I will never forget him and though he has passed he lives on in our hearts. 

I thank all those that have found the time to come and mourn with us at this difficult time. 

May Ndifreke's precious soul rest in peace and may the Lord comfort his wife and two beautiful young children.

(FFK)

Dear Mr. President,

Baba Tinubu, how far na? We know say you dey try, but e be like say the “trying” never really reach us wey dey grassroots. Things dey tough no be small, and Nigerians dey para like fufu wey dem forget for fire. Fuel subsidy removal na real “gbas gbos” matter. Fuel price jump like antelope, transport fare kon dey do competition with private jet. People dey trek go work, dem dey call am “Tinubu workout challenge.” Abeg, how we go survive like this? You talk say na to save money, but the money wey you save, where e dey? Abi you don carry am go buy new cap for your bullion van?

While we cannot be oblivious to the increased revenue that is now going to the states but it is not really being felt across board. I won’t accuse the governors but the fact is that it has been an increase in suffering. While the political class don’t see anything wrong with the lavish-for-all-to-see lifestyle, they are finding it hard to pay 70,000, or at best praising themselves for paying with money that is not theirs.

This economy matter sef dey worry us well-well. Naira don weak like agege bread wey dem soak for water, inflation dey rise faster than gossip for market. It is not a thing of joy as the World Bank keeps reminding us that our currency is one of the worst performing around the globe, while at the same time inundating us that we must suffer like this for the next 15 years.

Yet World Bank come dey give us loan like say we be beggar wey dey road side. Abi dem think say na to borrow money be the solution to all our problems? We need roads wey no go turn to swimming pool after small rain, hospitals wey get doctors and medicine, and light wey no dey take break more than NEPA.

Baba, this your “Renewed Hope” agenda, we still dey wait to see am o. No be only for campaign poster e suppose dey. Make e touch our lives for real. We need jobs wey go make our youths busy, not make dem dey idle dey join bad gang. We need schools wey go teach our children better thing, not make dem come out dey speak English like say dem swallow dictionary.

And this corruption matter, e be like say e don get PhD for this country. EFCC dey catch small yahoo boys, but the big ogas wey dey chop our money dey chill for Banana Island. Abi na only small thief dey Nigeria? Security matter nko? Kidnappers dey do home delivery, bandits dey operate like dem get office for Aso Rock, and Boko Haram still dey do meeting for Sambisa forest like say na dem get the place. We need action, not long grammar wey dey make us sleep!

Abeg, Mr. President, you get barely two years left. No let your time waste like yesterday’s moi-moi. Make you use this time take solve these wahala wey full ground like harmattan dust. Nigerians no be mumu, we know say you fit do better. If you no perform, we go change am for you come 2027. No let us come dey call you “Baba Go-Slow” or “Presido of Inflation.”

Make you remember say to whom much is given, much is expected. No let us down, Baba! Show us say you be true Jagaban!

Your Loyal Citizen (wey dey hustle).

Meanwhile, I was part of a Roundtable on Development and Human Rights in the cold city of Jos, Plateau.

The highly anticipated Roundtable on Development and Human Rights brought together a diverse group of experts from academia, civil society, government agencies, and international organizations. The event aimed to foster critical dialogue on the intricate relationship between development and human rights in Nigeria.

Dr. Yakubu Joseph, Country Coordinator of Mission 21 and organizer, emphasized the significance of the Roundtable, which had renowned activist Dr. Gad Shamaki who delivered the first presentation, “Social Movements, Activism and Social Development in Nigeria.” Dr. Shamaki explored social movements’ critical role in driving social change and advocating for human rights, highlighting historical and contemporary dynamics of activism in Nigeria.

The second presentation, “The Right to Development: Realistic or a Mirage?,” was given by Mr. Joseph Lengmang, a seasoned development and peace practitioner. Mr. Lengmang analyzed the complexities of the right to development, sparking a lively debate on its realization in Nigeria.

Dr. Summaye Hamza presented “Social Safety Nets in Nigeria: Assessing Government Palliatives within the framework of the right to development.” Dr. Hamza critically analyzed government initiatives aimed at poverty alleviation and social protection.

The breakout session which followed, had participants discussing Nigeria’s progress in realizing the right to development. They proposed recommendations for enhancing social investment programs’ effectiveness amongst which are

1. Multi-stakeholder Dialogue: Continue providing a platform for dialogue on development and human rights.

2. Disseminate Findings: Share key findings and recommendations with policymakers and stakeholders.

3. Follow-up Activities: Explore opportunities to ensure the Roundtable’s sustainability.

The Roundtable demonstrated the importance of collaborative efforts in advancing development and human rights in Nigeria. I strongly believe that, while the challenges are tough, while it all looks blurred, only time will tell, as we hope, pray and work so that—Nigeria will win.

Nigerian Pidgin Glossary:

Baba: A term of respect, similar to “father” or “sir”
How far na?: What’s up? How are you?
Wey dey grassroots: Those at the bottom, the common people
Para like fufu wey dem forget for fire: Very angry (like burnt fufu)
Gbas gbos: A serious matter
Tinubu workout challenge: Humorous reference to people trekking due to high transport fares
Agege bread: A popular type of bread in Nigeria
NEPA: The former name of the electricity company in Nigeria, known for frequent power outages
Yahoo boys: Internet fraudsters
Banana Island: An affluent area in Lagos
Aso Rock: The Nigerian Presidential Complex
Sambisa forest: A known hideout for Boko Haram
Moi-moi: A Nigerian steamed bean pudding
Harmattan dust: Dry, dusty wind common in West Africa
Mumu: Fool
Baba Go-Slow: Implies slow to take action
Presido of Inflation: Implies presiding over high inflation
Jagaban: A title meaning “leader of warriors,” often used to refer to President Tinubu

—

Prince Charles Dickson PhD
Team Lead
The Tattaaunawa Roundtable Initiative (TRICentre

In Chinua Achebe’s seminal novel Things Fall Apart, the character Ezeudu delivers a powerful admonition to Okonkwo: “That boy calls you father. Do not bear a hand in his death.” 

These words are not just a warning in a fictional narrative; they resonate deeply with the human experience and, more urgently, with the realities of present-day Nigeria.

This statement, though rooted in a specific cultural and historical context, can be interpreted as a universal call for compassion, empathy, and the duty of care we owe to one another. 

In Nigeria today, where social, political, and economic challenges continue to strain relationships, this message takes on heightened significance.

In Achebe’s novel, Okonkwo is warned not to be complicit in the death of a young boy who regards him as a father figure. This highlights the sacred responsibility individuals hold in nurturing and protecting those who look up to them. 

In our society, many of us find ourselves in positions where others—whether children, mentees, employees, or fellow citizens—look to us for guidance, protection, and leadership.

This responsibility is especially critical for Nigeria’s leaders, whether they be in government, community leadership, or business. 

Our actions—or inaction—have consequences on the lives of millions of Nigerians who rely on the decisions made in offices and boardrooms. 

Every policy passed, every budget allocation, and every reform touches the lives of those who metaphorically “call us father.” 

Fulfilling this responsibility means not bearing a hand in policies or actions that harm the very people we are tasked to protect.

In recent times, Nigeria has witnessed a surge in violence, youth disenfranchisement, and economic inequality. 

This reality reveals an erosion of empathy in various spheres of life. 

Achebe’s warning reminds us that, when we fail to act with compassion and empathy, we become complicit in the “death”—whether physical, emotional, or spiritual—of those who depend on us.

When leaders and citizens alike lose touch with the humanity of others, we see the consequences in forms of brutality, corruption, and negligence. 

The ever-increasing gulf between the rich and the poor, the marginalization of vulnerable groups, and the disregard for human life in conflict areas such as the North East, all point to an urgent need to rekindle our collective empathy.

The metaphor of “fatherhood” in Achebe’s quote speaks to the interconnectedness of all Nigerians, regardless of tribe, religion, or socioeconomic status. 

Nigeria, with its diversity of ethnicities and cultures, must strive for national unity. This unity cannot be achieved through indifference or hostility. We are brothers and sisters, and the wellbeing of one affects the wellbeing of all.

As the country faces divisive forces, it is crucial to remember that every Nigerian child, every underprivileged youth, and every citizen bears the potential to contribute to the greatness of our nation. 

To bear a hand in their “death” is to stifle the very spirit of progress and unity that Nigeria so desperately needs.

Achebe’s warning also serves as a call to reimagine leadership—not just as an exercise of power, but as an exercise of guardianship. 

True leaders must not be driven by the pursuit of self-interest or the desire for control. Instead, they must be driven by the wellbeing of those who trust them.

Similarly, the ordinary citizen must also take this message to heart. We must reject the culture of silence and indifference to the struggles of others. 

We all have a role to play in shaping the future of Nigeria. Whether it’s through voting, activism, or simply offering a hand to those in need, we must strive to create a society that protects and uplifts its most vulnerable members.

In broader terms, Achebe’s powerful statement is not just a reminder to Okonkwo, but a warning to every Nigerian—leaders and citizens alike. 

We must not bear a hand in the “death” of our fellow countrymen and women. We must embrace compassionate leadership, empathetic citizenship, and the recognition that every Nigerian deserves the opportunity to live a life of dignity and purpose.

In these times of crisis and uncertainty, let us heed Achebe’s wisdom and strive for a future where no one is left behind. Only by fostering empathy, compassion, and responsibility can we hope to build a Nigeria that works for all.

Chinedum Anayo is a Political Commentator and can be reached via This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, has mandated Vice President Kashim Shettima to proceed and lead Nigeria's delegation to the 2024 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM). 

VP Shettima will join King Charles of England and other world leaders from 56 member countries at the first CHOGM to be held in the Pacific small island of Apia, Samoa from October 21 to 26. They will deliberate on the theme, "One Resilient Common Future: Transforming our Common Wealth."

The theme will focus attention on how member countries can harness their strengths through resilience, unlocking potential, leveraging the 'Commonwealth Advantage', and fostering a connected, digital Commonwealth.

At this meeting, Nigeria and other member countries will also elect and appoint the next Commonwealth Secretary-General. 

In line with the Agreed Memorandum on the Establishment and Functions of the Commonwealth Secretariat (revised 2022) and the principle of regional rotation, the next Commonwealth Secretary-General will come from the Africa Region. 

The candidates for the role are from Lesotho, Ghana, and The Gambia, while Nigeria will have a major role to play as the largest African member in this regard. 

Consolidating the progress made at CHOGM 2022, VP Shettima and other world leaders will also deliberate on the global economy, environmental and security challenges, discussing how Commonwealth countries can work together to build resilience, boost trade, innovation, growth, and empower the Commonwealth's 1.5 billion young people for a more peaceful and sustainable future.

The Vice President is expected to use the platform provided by the Commonwealth Business Forum to further attract investors to Nigeria, as global experts from businesses and the private sector convene to recommend and champion solutions to global challenges.

Senator Shettima will also participate in the People's Forum, the single largest opportunity organized by the Commonwealth Foundation for people to engage with leaders on global development issues. He will also engage in bilateral meetings and other executive sessions. 

Stanley Nkwocha

Senior Special Assistant to The President on Media & Communications

(Office of The Vice President)

When I clock 90, if I had a choice in the matter, I’ll like to be like General Yakubu Dan-Yumma “Jack” Gowon – in good health, full of cheer and with my better half whispering sweet nothings into my ear as she relishes the distinguished audience consisting of Their Excellences, Highnesses, Lords, Eminences and other movers and shakers of society, temporal and spiritual.

It is not given to many people to be able to cast a happy glance at an illustrious life lived over nine decades and still bask in the adulation of a grateful society. At 90, General Gowon seems to still be in the middle of the Nigerian story despite his best efforts to be anonymous. A man of destiny, he found himself positioned at crucial junctions in Nigeria’s national life. Weighty responsibilities were cast on his shoulders at the age of 33 when his colleagues entrusted the leadership of the country onto him.

Many of us remember General Gowon fondly as that youthful military officer with a genial smile who led Nigeria through three harrowing years of a civil war. His “no victor, no vanquished” speech at the war’s end to promote healing and reconciliation is a classic in social reintegration and wound healing. The Nigerian Civil War may have been listed as one of the deadliest in modern history, but those on the ‘federal side’ insist that Gowon’s leadership saved the country. Had the leadership fallen into different hands, perhaps the story of the war might have been different in terms of sheer brutality and casualty figures. But General Gowon was a humanist in the middle of a human tragedy. He made it clear that his mission was to keep Nigeria united, not to extirpate the people of the Eastern Region. That position brought him in direct collision with some of his feisty war commanders. That story was told by the commanders themselves after the war.

To cap his humanist disposition, Gowon’s post-war programme encompassing the 3Rs – Reconciliation, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction – was a lesson in re-integration and fence mending. He holds the distinction of having served for the longest continuous period as military head of state of Nigeria, ruling for almost nine years.

Since his return to the country after a long sojourn abroad during which he bagged a PhD in Political Science, he has shown himself to be essentially a man of peace. His Yakubu Gowon Foundation has been involved in human development interventions while his “Nigeria Prays” initiative is a non-governmental and interdenominational prayer organisation. The former head of state has stayed away from partisan politics and is therefore generally seen as a father to all.

The other day in Abuja, the General was all smiles as the créme de la créme of society gathered to honour him on his 90th birthday. Ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo who was one of the war commanders during the civil war acknowledged his boss’s humanist posture and revealed that the story of Nigeria might have been more tragic with a less compassionate man at the helm.

Ex-President Goodluck Jonathan said he, too, could only marvel at the wonders of God because he was in primary 5 when General Gowon became head of state. As President when he presided over meetings of the Council of State, (incorporating ex-presidents, heads of state, vice-presidents or their equivalents during military rule, ex-chief justices of the federation, ex-Senate presidents, et al.et al.) he said he usually marvelled whenever he looked at General Gowon. Fate had brought two men of destiny together: A one-time primary 5 pupil was presiding over a meeting where his former military head of state was but an ordinary member!

However, the greatest gift anyone could give General Gowon on his 90th birthday was crafted in prose by Dr. Akinwumi A. Adesina, president of the African Development Bank (AfDB). At the birthday lecture titled: “Building a Global Nigeria”, Dr. Adesina charted the course that could steer Nigeria away from underachievement, underdevelopment and perpetual poverty. Only an intellectual discourse of such gravitas could have done justice to the momentousness of General Gowon’s 90th birthday. Adesina, Nigeria’s former minister of agriculture, now generally acknowledged as Africa’s Optimist-In-Chief, dug deep to unearth the compass Nigeria requires to fulfil its destiny as a global player. There can be no substitute for the full text. Meanwhile here are Excerpts:

Historic Duty

“When the Gulf region was to develop, it took Saudi Arabia to set the pace…. For Africa to develop, it needs Nigeria to develop faster.

Food Security

“To ensure food security, the federal government in conjunction with state governments, should return to the highly successful Growth Enhancement Scheme and the electronic-wallet scheme that was put in place when I was minister of agriculture….

Transforming Ports

“Recently the Financial Times reported that congestion at the port in Lagos has become so bad that it could cost more than $4,000 to truck a container 20 kilometres inland – almost as much as it costs to ship the very same container 12,000 nautical miles from China…

Japa Syndrome

“The rate and speed at which Nigerians are leaving the country – the so-called “Japa” syndrome risks undermining Nigeria’s drive for economic rejuvenation and positioning for global dominance. Nigeria’s best talents including doctors, nurses, lawyers, engineers, architects, computer programmers, artists and cultural entrepreneurs, sports athletes, and even bankers, are voting with their feet and leaving Nigeria in droves due to economic hardships, high unemployment, a corrosive rate of inflation that daily eats away at the value of their assets, insecurity ….

“PwC estimates that the exodus of Nigeria’s talents will lead to a loss of close to $5 billion annually. Yet, this is happening against the backdrop of a rapid global growth in Artificial Intelligence that holds enormous opportunities for shaping and transforming the world economy. In a recent analysis, PwC estimated that Artificial Intelligence will add $116 trillion to the global economy by 2030 and $316 billion annually to the economies of just four African countries – Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Ghana by 2030. Nigeria is well poised to take advantage of this opportunity, with the nation being one of the leaders in the fintech industry, and companies such as Flutterwave, Palm Pay, MTN Mobile Money, Piggyest ranking among the top 250 Fintech companies globally. Nigeria also has five of the top seven Unicorn Fintech companies in Africa, including Interswitch, Flutterwave, OPay and Andela, demonstrating the ingenuity and entrepreneurial capacity of Nigerians to lead, innovate and dominate the competitive Fintech industry. That is why the African Development Bank, along with partners, is investing $614 million in the i-DICE programme in Nigeria. This is a bold initiative designed to develop digital and creative enterprises, which will help add $6 billion to Nigeria’s GDP and create 6.4 million jobs….

“…We must become a Global Nigeria, brimming with talent, skills and entrepreneurship capacity that is powered by clear, strong, consistent, and sustainable government policies to become globally competitive, and to retain our young talents, if we are to drive growth and competitiveness globally. A Global Nigeria will turn “Japa” (“we are leaving”) into “Ja Pada” (we are going back)! To get there, I have some good news! I am delighted to announce that three days ago the African Development Bank’s Board of Directors approved $100 million for the establishment of the Youth Entrepreneurship Investment Bank of Nigeria….”

Let’s Go On With One Nigeria. Happy Birthday, General Gowon!

Breaking News: The World Bank has endorsed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic policy, suggesting that Nigeria must maintain its current reforms for the next 10 to 15 years in order to be able to transform its economy. Dr. Indermit Gill, the chief economist and senior vice-president of the World Bank Group, said and I quote: “If these reforms are sustained, Nigeria will transform its economy and become an engine of growth in sub-Saharan Africa. It is very difficult to implement such reforms, but the rewards are massive.” He was speaking in Abuja at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit with the theme: “Collaborative Action for Growth, Competitiveness, and Stability.”

Me: Thank you very much, Dr. Gill, but how many Nigerians will still be alive in the long run at this rate? With the massively falling naira, growing foodflation, explosive fuel costs, and shocking electricity tariffs, how many Nigerians will make it to the Promised Land? Nigerians have been experiencing the pains of various economic reforms for decades but it has been eons since they have had to endure this rate of price increases all coming within one year. As they are struggling to process one development, another one comes. They are asking: when will there be a respite? Petrol price alone has jumped from roughly N185/litre to around N1,000. This was previously unthinkable.

When President Olusegun Obasanjo was about to be inaugurated in 1999, Channels TV did a vox-pop of people on the streets, asking them their expectations of the new government. “I want Obasanjo to bring the economy down,” one market woman yelled into the microphone. Don’t laugh. As far as she was concerned, the “economy” means prices of goods and services. You know everything about the macro-economic and micro-economic theories, GDP, M1, M2, M3, balance of payments, capital flows and fiscal consolidation — but the market woman knows something about the price of garri theory. No matter the imperative of reform, therefore, there is a human element that cannot be ignored.

Economic reforms are mostly presented as a technical activity. You want to attract foreign investments? Remove the artificial peg of the naira, lift barriers to free trade and don’t place a lid on capital repatriation. You want more funds for education, healthcare and to build critical infrastructure? Get rid of subsidies. You want more revenue? Increase your tax/GDP ratio — your rates are too low and enforcement too weak. You want to curb inflation? Reduce money supply by raising interest rates. On paper, these policies are no-brainers. There is just one problem: at the receiving end are human beings — and the poorest of them are always disproportionately affected.

Across the country today, Nigerians are groaning over the impact of the reform being embarked upon by Tinubu, who has been nicknamed “T-Pain”. The reform has seen to the total or partial removal of three subsidies: petrol, FX and electricity. The “technical” results are what the World Bank is celebrating: debt service as percentage of revenue is falling, meaning there will be more money to fund the budget; FX reserves are growing, meaning we can now meet our international trading obligations better than before; and federation account is getting fatter partly because of the removal of the implicit FX subsidy. But here is the ultimate test: what is the “is equal to” on the price of garri?

On the upside, the removal of petrol subsidy will end the scam that has been enriching a few. We were to spend about N5.4 trillion on subsidy in 2024, having already doled out N4.2 trillion from January to July. No such claims can be made again and there should, thus, be more money going into the treasury. On the downside, though, petrol price has been rising and making life miserable for Nigerians. It is complicated by the fact that we are not used to buying petrol at a market-determined price, so it is a culture shock. When prices were increased in the past, they usually stayed on the same spot for years no matter the ex-depot cost. This brought some stability to consumer prices.

Until recently, we were importing petrol at N1,200/litre and selling at N600. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd started owing suppliers and was, in no time, struggling to keep importing. Word went round that Dangote Refinery, being home-based, would soon start selling petrol for N200, but that was not to be. After all, the refinery also has to buy crude at the market price (whether in naira or dollars) — like any other refinery — before it can produce petrol. We have now entered an era where petrol, like diesel, will be priced like any other commodity as it is done in most countries around the world. The new order, unfortunately, means more pains for Nigerians.

Meanwhile, the removal of FX subsidy has brought hardship — in fact, it is the root of the biggest sufferings Nigerians have had to bear, including the hike in fuel prices and electricity tariffs. FX is the baseline for virtually everything in Nigeria, directly and indirectly. The official exchange rate was around N460/$ when Tinubu became president. It is now about N1,600/$. In the parallel market, it was N750/$ and now N1,700. We held on to the artificial/official peg for so long that the gap kept widening. Only those with “long legs” could buy FX at the official rate. The most pronounced consequences were the diversion of FX into parallel market and the backlog of unmet demands.

By allowing the naira to depreciate, Tinubu can claim to have achieved a few things. One, the incentive for arbitrage — buying at official rate and selling in the parallel market — has reduced. Some of our celebrated billionaires were milking the country dry through arbitrage: getting FX from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) at N460/$ via fake transactions and roundtripping to sell at N750/$ in the parallel market. The margin was mad. The margin is thin now, making arbitrage less attractive. Two, Tinubu can also say that our dollar reserves are growing again, partly because FX inflow is now going through official sources. Now we are settling our FX obligations faster, compared to the past.

But the downside is devastating. We import most of the essential things we consume in Nigeria, including fuels, clothing, medication and intermediate goods. Any slight upward adjustment in the exchange rate will cause a ripple effect on general prices. In fact, it was when the exchange rate went gaga that it finally dawned on me that it is far more impactful on the poor than the price of petrol. Actually, the fuel prices are largely dependent on the exchange rate. In turn, the cost of transportation is determined by fuel prices. And the pricing of foodstuff, particularly in the southern part of Nigeria, is largely affected by transportation cost. It is like everything happened to us at once.

Tinubu also partially removed electricity subsidy. According to reports, the subsidy bill was estimated at N2 trillion for 2024. But through the creation of the “Band A” nomenclature and the shifting of most of the subsidy burden there, Tinubu cut the bill by half. The general economic argument is that where there is no subsidy, there is no subsidy scam. Agreed. But the impact has been equally devastating. By the time the tripled tariff landed on businesses and schools (tertiary institutions in particular), it was all tears. In sum, the removal of the three subsidies — despite all the highlighted benefits — has taken the cost of living skywards and eroded the purchasing power of Nigerians.

Where do I stand? To be sure, I am not against reform. The economic hardship is global. Our economy was racing towards the abyss. We were spending most of our revenue on servicing debts, printing money to pay salaries and failing to meet our FX obligations. We were living on borrowed time. We were getting to a stage when our letters of credit would no longer be honoured — meaning we would not be able to import basic stuffs again. It has happened before: in 1983, the Shehu Shagari administration had to set up a task force to import rice. In 1984, we were queueing to buy “essential commodities” as they were not available in the open market because of FX scarcity.

In one word, we did not have many options when Tinubu came on board. In fact, the reform should have started as far back as 2014. We did not want Nigerians to suffer, so we delayed and dilly-dallied. We started borrowing and also rationing FX to paper over the cracks. Some of the measures actually held down consumer prices for a while and I was partially in support because I believe reform has to be paced. But when the problems became overwhelming, we delayed action on many fronts. It is like a man with kidney failure dilly-dallying on dialysis until he now has to do a transplant. Nigeria is now undergoing a transplant because of its failure to do the painful but necessary dialysis for years.

Having said that, however, I still do not have nice words for the Tinubu administration. For one, it is clear that the reform was poorly conceived and harshly implemented. You can devalue the naira, yes, but no country floats its currency recklessly as we did. It was a kamikaze. Above all, the measures to cushion the pains are mostly audio. Ages ago, the Tinubu administration announced a planned suspension of tariffs on food items. Maybe it will start implementation this morning. You can see the unseriousness. No sense of urgency. Yet, the government was eager to award the N15 trillion Lagos-Calabar road contract — of all the problems in Nigeria. Construction started instantly. Priorities.

That, in a nutshell, is why reform is difficult to sell to Nigerians. The people are wondering: are we all in this thing together? There is nothing to show that the message of sacrifice is for all. Leadership is best delivered by example. It is more urgent to buy a presidential jet than to reduce tariffs on food items and medication that will benefit millions of Nigerians. How many people really benefit from all these palliatives? All said, it would be more disastrous to reverse the reform. The task is how to keep it on track and minimise the pains. I have said this again and again: Nigerians are not impossible to lead. They want to see that their leaders really and truly care — not just in words but also in deed.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

KILLING EFCC

There is a big campaign to castrate the EFCC by limiting its powers to only federal officials. Sixteen states are at the Supreme Court seeking a definitive pronouncement on the powers of the EFCC. I am not a lawyer (at least, not yet), but my sense is that the EFCC deals with financial crimes that go through the banking system. Item No. 6 on the exclusive legislative list in the 1999 Constitution places “banks and banking” under federal jurisdiction. Therefore, the best way governors can plunder our resources and escape the EFCC is to avoid passing their loot through the financial system. Alternatively, they can get the lawmakers to delete Item 6 from the exclusive list. Simple.

TANKER TRAGEDY

Over 100 people were burnt to death in an explosion in Majia, Jigawa state, on Tuesday night when a petrol-laden tanker had an accident. Most of the victims were reportedly scooping petrol when the explosion occurred. It happens all the time. The most memorable for me was the 1998 Jesse pipeline disaster in Delta state — over 1,000 were burnt to death. There have been similar incidents in Cross River and Lagos states. We all know the dangers, but when you are so poor, your sense of adventure can be reckless. You are only thinking of the gain of “free petrol” if you succeed in scooping it. We obviously need to take tanker safety seriously and citizen education even more seriously. Horrific.

LAWLESS LIBYA

Ahead of the now-postponed Afcon qualifier in Libya, the Super Eagles of Nigeria were treated shabbily by their petulantly hostile hosts. Their flight was diverted to a distant airport — where they were held hostage without water, food or internet access for 15 hours. However, the Libyans said we meted out a similar treatment to them a few days earlier when they played in Uyo, Akwa Ibom state. In other words, this was their revenge. In football, retaliation is a straight red card. It contradicts their claim that the flight was not diverted deliberately. Nigeria has denied the allegations. Why didn’t the Libyans report the Uyo “maltreatment” to CAF? That would have been far more civil. Self-help.

NO COMMENT

The consultative assembly of the Southeast Electricity Consumers Association (SEECA) says residents in the geo-political zone will go on an “indefinite strike” from November 1 over a plan to move customers to Band A where electricity tariffs are the highest. Before you laugh, they have a point: faulty infrastructure is yet to be fixed and the Enugu Electricity Distribution Company (EEDC) has not complied with an order by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) to refund N11.86 billion to consumers overbilled between January and September 2023. But what will a strike look like if EEDC does not stop supply? Switch off the lights? Resort to using diesel generators? Wonderful.

Last week, the World Bank made three key and coordinated interventions about the economic reforms of the current administration. On Monday, the Bank’s chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics, Dr Indermit Gill, gave a special remark at the annual summit of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG); on Wednesday, the same Dr Gill had an opinion piece in the highly-regarded Financial Times; and on Thursday, the World Bank Group launched its latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU).

Well-synchronised, the three interventions echoed the same message: that the Tinubu economic reforms are necessary, that the reforms are beginning to yield positive results, but the reforms need to be sustained and supported to deliver the desired gains. The World Bank came across as offering a ringing and an unqualified endorsement of not just the reforms but also of the way they are being executed. Without a doubt, the Tinubu administration would crave and celebrate such a rosy affirmation. But most Nigerians, going through the worst cost-of-living crisis in recent memory, would have none of it.

I listened to the various speakers at the launch of the NDU (and it was a relief that Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State was invited to provide some ground-level, even if somewhat political, reality check). Also, I have read the speech and the Op-Ed by Dr Gill and gone through the NDU report. I think World Bank’s position is more nuanced than it is coming across in the press and on social media.

However, the World Bank cannot be absolved of the charge of underplaying the mistakes in reform implementation, of over-simplifying the expanding opposition to the reforms and of minimising the danger of not acting quickly and concretely to reduce the concentrated pain spreading across the land. It can be argued that some of these things are not for the World Bank to say. But there is always a risk in not applying necessary caveats and in not reading the room well at a time when most citizens are struggling to make ends meet and there seems to be no reasonable timeframe for the stress to moderate.

In the three interventions, the Bank made a compelling case for the removal of petrol and foreign exchange subsidies. In 2022, the Bank stated, Nigeria lost $15 billion or 5% of GDP to explicit and implicit (and regressive) subsidies on petrol and forex and unwittingly imposed a tax on non-oil exports. This created a fiscal mess and dampened economic growth, and the country was just inches away from a cliff.

The two signature reforms of the Tinubu administration, the Bank submitted, have stemmed the bleeding and some vital signs of recovery are becoming noticeable. The positive signs include the following: fiscal deficit shrank from 6.2% of GDP in H1-2023 to 4.4% of GDP in H1-2024; federation revenues increased from 5.5% of GDP in H1-2023 to 8.7% of GDP in H1-2024; gross foreign reserves rose from $32.9 billion at the end of 2023 to $38.5 billion in early October 2024; arbitrage-inducing premium on multiple foreign exchange rates has been eliminated by ‘market determined’ unification of rates and forex turnover has doubled; debt service as a portion of revenue is projected to fall to 60% by end of 2024 compared to 100% in 2022 etc., etc.

All this is well and good, and Nigeria could use such cheery assessment. We will revert shortly on how much value an average Nigerian puts in such macro-level datapoints. Crucially, the Bank acknowledged the disruption and hardship brought by the reforms, especially in terms of higher energy costs and prices of other goods and services, and the implication for driving more Nigerians into poverty.

In the three interventions, the overarching message from the World Bank is that the country should not abandon the reforms. “Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 15 years to transform its economy and become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” said Dr Gill at the NESG summit. “This is the lesson from the past 40 years, as well as from the experience of countries as diverse as India, Poland, South Korea and Norway. Nigeria’s reforms from 2003 through 2007 were exactly what was needed—but they were not sustained.”

The Bank came up with a list of things that should be done to deepen the reforms and as part of staying the course. The prescriptions revolve around creating meaningful jobs for Nigerians, with special emphasis on women and youth. The suggestions are in four broad areas: reducing trade barriers; improving infrastructure; improving business environment; and increasing support to households and businesses. 

I welcome the World Bank for being a strong advocate for reforms in Nigeria. I have written a number of times about how some of these institutions and countries are not doing enough to provide adequate support to Nigeria after the country took on board most of the difficult reforms that they routinely recommend. These institutions and countries need to put their money where their mouth is. What Nigeria needs now, more than anything else, is massive forex supply that the smaller and regular inflows from trade and investment can build on and sustain to ensure a fair value for the Naira and to provide relief to Nigerians across the board. We will also return to this shortly.

The World Bank might not have all the money, but it is a good institution to have in your corner. So, it goes a long way if the Bank is expressing so much confidence in and speaking up for ongoing reforms in Nigeria. But I have a few points of departure.

The first is about how you measure success. To be sure, the macro-level data shared by the World Bank is important. They show that difficult reforms can yield results, and that in this instance, the government is getting a better handle of its finances. But the statistics on external reserves, fiscal deficit, forex rate unification etc., means absolutely nothing to those who have had to endure the doubling, tripling and even quintupling of prices of basic items in the last year or so, and who have no idea of how soon this hardship will moderate or end. So, telling them the reform is yielding fruits with some cold data is asking them to deny the evidence of their eyes and the harsh reality of their lived experience. And urging their government to press on, without making adjustments, is likely to come off as insensitive. It should be understandable that the mass of Nigerians struggling to pay for food and medication will not measure success of reforms with some cold data on reserves and revenues.

My second issue is with the assumption that everyone criticising the reforms wants reversal or is a member of the elite that benefited from the old order. It is quite unfortunate that the World Bank will make this claim in its NDU: “With so many constituencies having benefited from the previous approach, especially the elite, there has been intense political pressure to regress to the previous policies, despite their unsustainable cost and the fact that they unfairly benefited mainly a lucky few at the expense of ordinary Nigerians.”

This is a reductionist and an unhelpful view. Reform design and implementation are a human enterprise. They can’t be perfect. Mistakes will be made. Some assumptions will not be met. Adjustments will be necessary in some instances. And truth be told, some fundamental mistakes have been made in implementing the twin reforms, especially in terms of strategic planning, sequencing and approach, provisioning for the vulnerable and picking up speed in making reliefs available to the needy.

I have said this repeatedly: it is possible to do the right thing in the wrong way or in the wrong order. Yes, there are those opposed to the reforms from the beginning and till now. There are also those who are against the reforms for ideological and political reasons. But there are also those who want the reforms to be more thoughtfully designed and better implemented. Lumping everyone together or dismissing those who want improvement to the reforms is not very useful, and not the kind of tendency the World Bank should be encouraging.

My third issue is that most of the options laid out by the Bank and the government will not address the immediate pain points of most Nigerians. Cash transfer is necessary, but how far can N75,000 shared in three tranches go for the poorest households (even when disbursed on time, which is not the case here)? Free or subsidised bags of rice and other grains can be helpful but how many people will such reach and for how long? More than doubling the minimum wage is a great idea, but this applies to largely the few who work in the formal sector or 7.3% of those in our labour force. Meanwhile, the hardship brought by the reform is widespread.  

The proposals about creating jobs, improving infrastructure and trade etc will provide a structural foundation for sustainable growth but they will not provide immediate relief to the growing number of Nigerians whose standard of living is being shredded daily by soaring costs of food and other essential items. With food inflation at 37.77% (Sokoto State is 50.47%), we should all be worried stiff. Meanwhile, suspension of taxes on some food items was announced with fanfare in July but discussion is still ongoing on implementation. That tells you all you need to know about the seriousness the government attaches to some issues.

My last point is about the song and dance being made of the unification of the exchange rate and how that ties to the central challenge of the moment. In his NESG speech, Dr Gill said that when the forex reform started in June 2023, the official exchange rate was N465/$1 while the parallel market rate was N700/$1, a spread of N235 on each dollar. Sixteen months into the forex reform, the rates have unified at around N1600/$1. Is that not an incredible feat? We have achieved unification, but at what cost?

Both the World Bank and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are crowing about how this major achievement that has eliminated arbitrage, has led to increase in dollar-denominated government revenues, and in investment flows, remittances and external reserves, and made Nigerian exports more competitive. Missing here is a thought for the Nigerians who do not earn dollars, who clearly constitute more than 90% of our population and are impacted in different ways by the massive loss in the value of the national currency.

But by all accounts, Naira has moved from being overvalued to being undervalued. Figure 1.8 in the NDU euphemistically says the real exchange rate has staged a large adjustment. Some REER calculation puts Naira at its lowest real value since 1999. This large adjustment arose from the disorderly devaluation of the Naira through a free float without a guarantee of adequate forex supply. The argument is not about retaining the forex subsidy but about how to devalue based on your context as a country. Also, a free float is not the only way to have a market-determined, competitive exchange rate. 

The World Bank, the CBN and even the Finance Ministry wax poetic about how the current ‘competitive’ value of the Naira should incentivise exports. But we all need to bear in mind that there will always be a time-lag for significant uptick in the quantity and quality of exports. Also, the benefits of increase in the Naira value of exports will not be as widespread as the immediate pains of an undervalued currency in a country that still imports a lot of final and intermediate goods. Clearly, the government is banking more revenue from exchange gains (which is now a major and regular FAAC item). Ordinarily, increased government revenues should translate to improved spending on the priorities of the people, but we know how that goes. Government’s spending priorities in the last 17 months tell us all we need to know.

We cannot normalise dollar at N1600 or afford further undervaluation under the convenient excuse that it is market determined especially when there is a consensus that the currency is undervalued. Ensuring that the Naira finds its fair value should be the priority of the government today because the price of most things, including that of locally refined petrol, is linked to the value of the Naira. Getting Naira to its fair value, and not those tokenistic handouts or those medium-term prescriptions, is what will provide immediate relief across the board.

It is also what will provide the best insurance for the difficult reforms and against social upheaval. Of course, we need to stay the course, as policy reversal has a heavy cost. But we also need to be practical and know that the human capacity to bear pain is not infinite. Reformers must constantly pay attention to the pulse of the operating environment, and make tactical adjustments where necessary.