The year 2024 marked 25 years of uninterrupted democratic rule in Nigeria. The 2024 electoral calendar, featuring four types of national and state elections tested public confidence in the electoral process and the commitment of democratic institutions and political actors to electoral integrity. At the federal level, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) conducted two off-cycle governorship elections in Edo and Ondo, bye-elections in two senatorial districts in Yobe and Ebonyi states, as well as four federal constituencies, and three state constituencies. Additionally, court ordered rerun elections arising from the decisions of election tribunals on the 2023 general elections held in thirty-six federal constituencies.

At the sub-national level, state electoral commissions conducted local government elections in 28 states. Disappointingly, these elections dampened citizens’ trust as they were signposted by poor management, electoral malpractices, vote buying, electoral violence and unbridled political interference. As Yiaga Africa noted, local government elections were a travesty of democratic elections. The 2024 electoral cycle exposed the fragility of Nigeria’s electoral process and affirmed that political actors were succeeding in rolling back most reforms previously introduced to enhance the quality of Nigerian elections.

In the bye-elections and re-run elections, seven parties won constituencies as follows: the All Progressives Congress (APC) won 20 constituencies, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured 15, Young Progressive Party (YPP) won 4, New Nigeria’s People’s Party (NNPP) won 3 while African Democratic Party (ADP), All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and Labour Party (LP) each won one constituency. APC won the two off-cycle governorship elections. For the local government elections, the party of the incumbent state governor overwhelmingly secured all the local government chairman positions and councillor seats except in very few instances where some seats were allocated to other parties.

2024 electoral headwinds and critical takeaways

Election logistics challenges, a persistent but surmountable issue

For over two decades, every election (national and local) has been plagued with delays or shortages in materials and personnel. While some of these operational challenges are deliberately created to influence electoral outcomes, others reflect a poor planning culture. However, the elections held in 2024 affirm that intentional planning, foresight and attention to detail can reverse the trend of logistics challenges. Most elections conducted by INEC in 2024 recorded early arrival of election materials except in the Edo governorship election, the Plateau bye-election and Enugu rerun election. Even in the face of election logistics sabotage by external actors, INEC demonstrated resilience by activating other options to ensure election materials and personnel were deployed in good time.

Increasing mockery of tech-enabled innovations for protecting election integrity

In 2020, INEC introduced the BVAS and IReV to strengthen the integrity, transparency and credibility of election results management. While the BVAS ensures only eligible registered voters cast their ballot and prevents multiple voting, the IReV ensures voters can access polling unit level results, enhancing transparency of elections results and disincentivising manipulation of election results during collation. However, cases of multiple results from a polling unit, discrepancies in hardcopy results sheets and results uploaded on the IReV revealed the extent to which political actors, enabled by compromised election officials, undermined the same technology aimed at safeguarding the integrity of the electoral process. Concerns about cost, technology penetration, and cybersecurity did not drive the initial opposition to the BVAS and IReV. Instead, it was largely driven by the fear that technology could potentially expose and limit electoral fraud. For instance, the IReV and BVAS exposed human interference with election results or accreditation data. Without these tools, the public would remain unaware of the depth of electoral manipulation experienced in recent elections.

No more red lines

A dark side of the 2024 electoral cycle was the tactics employed by the political class toward electoral politics. In an attempt to secure electoral victories at all costs, political actors brazenly utilised election manipulation tactics including results tampering, intimidation of election officials and violent disruption of elections to undermine all efforts to strengthen electoral integrity.

For instance, INEC had to suspend bye-elections in Kano, Akwa Ibom and Enugu due to disruption, irregularities and abduction of election officials. In the Kunchi/Tsanyawa state constituency, political actors mobilised thugs to hijack election materials and conduct the election. Similarly, in the recent Edo governorship election, collation officers allegedly altered results from four LGAs during collation. Local government elections were not exempt, as SIECs disregarded actual votes cast and allocated votes to candidates of ruling parties in the states. These patterns of election manipulation are consistent with those from previous elections, further undermining the legitimacy of the outcomes.

INEC and SIECs capture Is real

Political interference and assault on the operational and financial independence of election management bodies is a potent tool employed by political actors, especially incumbents to tilt the electoral scale in their favour. Many electoral commissions were starved of funds to conduct elections. INEC is believed to have received its funding late to conduct the off-cycle elections. During a recent roundtable on local government elections hosted by Yiaga Africa, most Chairpersons lamented how state governors deprive SIECs of funds. In some cases, election procurements were even determined by state governors.

The appointment of partisan individuals into electoral commissions to serve vested political interest deepens the distrust in the electoral process. Many civil society groups who opposed the appointment of some Resident Electoral Commissioners based on concerns over competence, experience and neutrality felt vindicated by their conduct during the 2024 elections. For instance, the Resident Electoral Commissioner for Edo state whose familial ties to federal minister was a subject of controversy due to his familial links with a federal minister, raising concerns about neutrality. However, calls for his redeployment in the build–up to the Edo governorship elections were rejected by INEC.

The logistics challenges and poor stakeholder engagement underscored his lack of experience. In contrast, the REC for Ondo, a former INEC Director exhibited exemplary competence and capacity which led to the successful conduct of the 2024 Ondo governorship election. In Ondo, by 7:30am, polling officials had arrived in 71% of polling units, unlike 43% recorded in Edo. This marked difference underscores the imperative of experience and competence in nominating individuals into INEC.

At the state level, governors appointed their former aides and card-carrying members of political parties into SIECs. These ‘strategic appointments’ are intentional political strategy to strip electoral commissions are stripped of the independence and capacity to deliver credible elections.

On a positive note, 2024 saw an increasing trend of appointing former and current INEC staff as Resident Electoral Commissioners and National Commissioners. While this practice may potentially enhance the quality of nominations into INEC given their expertise, it must be based on competence, integrity and proven records of high performance. Introducing a mandatory timeframe during which former INEC staff must be out of the commission before becoming eligible for such appointments is necessary to necessary to avoid perceptions of bias. A definite timeframe would prevent the approach from being misconstrued as a reward for delivering favourable outcomes, particularly since the appointing authority benefits directly from elections conducted by INEC.

Vote buying remain a growing blight

The conversion of polling units into market place for buying and selling of votes delegitimises electoral outcomes. This menace has become entrenched in Nigeria’s electoral process with all elections held in 2024 recording widespread vote buying. As reported by most election observers, votes traded between N5000 – N20,000 in off-cycle governorship elections. The higher the competitiveness an election, the higher the cost of a vote. The challenging economic situation of the country has further exacerbated the cases of vote buying in 2024.

On a positive note, while enforcement agencies have made arrests, prosecution of electoral offenders are still pending. Among law enforcement agencies, the Economic and Finance Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Department of State Services (DSS) stood out for arresting vote buyers in Edo and Ondo. Other security agencies and law enforcement agencies need to demonstrate greater commitment to combating the menace of vote buying.

These 2024 headwinds explain the apparent lack of public confidence in the electoral process. It also reaffirms the weaknesses of democratic institution like INEC, SIECs, and political parties. The reliance of old election rigging tactics further attests to these weaknesses. As the culture of impunity deepens so does the legitimacy of electoral outcomes. The urgency of electoral reform preceded by character reform is the only path to reclaiming electoral integrity and rebuilding trust in the electoral system.

Charting the path to electoral integrity in 2025 and beyond

2025 is a crucial year for laying the groundwork for Nigeria’s 2027 general election. In December 2025, there will a leadership transition at the helm of INEC as the current Chairman of the commission completes his second and final term. This leadership transition will significantly impact the management of the 2027 elections. The National Assembly must also conclude all electoral amendments to provide certainty in the legal framework for the next elections. Impressively, both chambers have committed to concluding the reforms by mid 2025.

As we look forward to 2025, the following four hurdles must be scaled to guarantee clean and safe elections for the coming year and beyond: First, rebuilding citizens’ trust in the capacity of proposed electoral reforms to address the excesses of political actors and systemic challenges in the electoral process and secondly, concluding all election-related administrative, legal and constitutional reforms in 2025 to ensure certainty in the legal framework ahead of the February 2026 release of the 2027 election timetable. Thirdly, building national consensus on the composition of INEC and SIECS, especially the qualification, mode of appointment and mechanisms for safeguarding the operational and financial independence of election management bodies and lastly, securing the commitment of key stakeholders like INEC, security agencies, political parties and transport unions like the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) to credible, inclusive and peaceful elections.

Surmounting these hurdles requires leadership and statesmanship from the president and the National assembly, active citizenship, and, finally, a resilient, cohesive, and unbiased civil society and media.

Itodo is an election, democracy, and public policy enthusiast. Itodo serves as the Executive Director of YiagaAfrica and Principal Partner of the Election Law Center. He is also a member of the Kofi Annan Foundation board and the Board of Advisers of International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). Comments and feedback to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president, has condemned a “military parade” accorded Seyi, son of President Bola Tinubu.

A viral video appeared to show the president’s son inspecting a guard mounted in his honour.

In a statement issued by his media office on Sunday, Abubakar demanded an investigation into the incident, saying it was a gross violation of military tradition.

“It is with utter dismay and concern that Nigerians were subjected to a nauseating video circulating online, where a group of young men, armed and in full military procession, bestowed upon the President’s son unwarranted military honours,” the statement signed by Paul Ibe, Abubakar’s media adviser, reads.

Abubakar said the group, identified as the ‘Nigeria Cadet Network’, is not a recognised entity within the Nigerian Armed Forces.

He said it was “disturbing that the name ‘Cadet’, associated with young, formally trained military personnel, was exploited by civilians to tarnish the esteemed traditions of the military”.

“In an effort to uncover the truth behind this shameless procession, we instructed our legal team and military experts to investigate the so-called ‘Nigeria Cadet Network’,” he said.

“To no one’s surprise, it was revealed that the group is not a legally registered entity. What is even more alarming is the brazen use of firearms by civilians in this so-called parade — at a time when illegal arms proliferation is at a dangerous high in our country.”

Abubakar said the probe should ascertain the legitimacy of the ‘Nigeria Cadet Network’ and its use of the cadet when it is not a registered entity, the legality of the firearms displayed, and the propriety of the military honours granted to the president’s son by non-commissioned civilians under the protection of security personnel.

The politician added that preserving the integrity of the Nigerian Armed Forces should be paramount.

“If it is determined that any legal violations were committed by the President’s son or members of the so-called ‘Nigeria Cadet Network,’ it is the constitutional duty of Nigerian security agencies to ensure that the law takes its course and those responsible are held accountable,” Abubakar said.

[TheCable]

Dele Farotimi’s emotional YouTube address following his release marked a pivotal moment in the ongoing struggle for truth, justice, and freedom in Nigeria. Visibly overwhelmed, he wept openly, expressing profound gratitude to Nigerians who rallied behind him during his 21-day ordeal in detention. Farotimi’s tears transcended personal pain—they embodied the collective suffering and hope of a nation grappling with systemic oppression.

“They did not see me as Yoruba, or as Christian. They saw me as human, a fellow Nigerian in need of their voice,” Farotimi said, his voice breaking with emotion. His gratitude was a powerful acknowledgment of the solidarity shown by Nigerians, who set aside their divisions to demand his release. “Because you spoke for me, I became stronger. You found your voice, and in that voice, I found my hope,” he added, capturing the transformative power of unity in the face of tyranny.

Farotimi’s address carried a dual message: a heartfelt expression of gratitude to the people and a pointed warning to those in power. He praised the ordinary citizens, activists, and allies who stood with him but also issued a stark caution to the administration that orchestrated his suffering.

“The tears I cry now are tears of gratitude,” he said, “but theirs will be tears of regret. The people have spoken for me, and history will ensure that those who oppress them cry last.” This statement, though veiled, was clearly directed at President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration and its allies, whom Farotimi has consistently criticized for running a “predatory state” built on lies, fear, and systemic oppression.

“Their empires are built on sand,” he warned. “When the time comes, the people will remember, and they will cry the loudest.” These words resonated deeply, laying bare the fragility of a regime that relies on repression rather than legitimacy to maintain its hold on power.

21 Days of Captivity: A Personal and National Revelation

Farotimi’s 21 days in detention were not just a personal trial—they became a metaphor for the broader cycles of oppression faced by millions of Nigerians. He described the experience as a “test of my faith, my will, and my commitment to the truth.” Despite the physical and emotional toll, Farotimi emerged stronger, stating, “They wanted to break me, but they didn’t realize they were only sharpening my determination.”

His captivity underscored the desperation of a government so threatened by criticism that it mobilized every available resource to silence a single voice. “This is not about me,” Farotimi said. “It is about dismantling a system that thrives on the suffering of its people. They fear the truth because it threatens the lies they have built their power on.”

His experience drew attention to the plight of countless others—those who remain nameless and forgotten in the clutches of an unjust system. Farotimi’s words served as a reminder that his struggle was not isolated but part of a much larger battle for justice and human dignity.

Farotimi has long described Nigeria’s governance as an “evil empire” sustained by poverty, ignorance, and fear. His YouTube address reiterated this critique, calling on Nigerians to dismantle a system that oppresses rather than serves them.

“This fight is not about me,” he said. “It is about dismantling a system that denies its people their humanity and thrives on their disempowerment.” He directly criticized Tinubu’s administration for weaponizing state institutions to suppress dissent and silence truth. “They fear the truth because it exposes their corruption, mismanagement, and failure to serve the people,” he declared. “But truth is relentless—it will find them, no matter how high their walls or how deep their pockets.”

Calling Nigerians to Peaceful Resistance

Farotimi’s tears were not only a reflection of his pain—they were a call to action for Nigerians to resist oppression through nonviolent means. “This is not a fight to be won with arms,” he said. “It is a fight of courage, persistence, and unity.”

He urged Nigerians to reject the fear and chaos propagated by the state and instead focus on their collective strength. “They divided us so they could conquer us, but you have shown that we can rise above their schemes. You have shown that we are stronger together,” he said.

Farotimi also called on Nigerians to demand accountability through their voices, their votes, and their solidarity. “The empire thrives on chaos and fear,” he warned, “but it will fall when we refuse to play by its rules.”

A Warning to the Powerful

Farotimi’s address carried a powerful warning to the political elite and their enablers. He predicted that “every cycle of 21 days will bring consequences for those who perpetuate suffering.” Addressing the families of those in power, he declared, “The comforts they have are built on the tears of millions. The empire they defend is crumbling, and when it falls, justice will be unbearable.”

His words served as a chilling reminder that privilege built on oppression cannot last indefinitely. “They might have power today,” he said, “but history is relentless. The people will remember, and when the time comes, they will cry the loudest.”

Farotimi’s struggle has transformed him into a symbol of resistance against tyranny. His book, Nigeria and Its Criminal Justice System, which the government attempted to ban, is now a global bestseller and a rallying cry for justice. Instead of silencing him, the administration’s actions amplified his message, proving that truth cannot be caged.

His 21 days in detention have become a metaphor for the cycles of oppression endured by ordinary Nigerians. Yet, as Farotimi said, “Every cycle of 21 days will bring consequences for those who exploit and oppress.” His warnings extended beyond the administration to its enablers, declaring that no empire built on the suffering of others can endure.

The Tears of a Nation

Farotimi’s emotional address symbolized the collective pain of a nation but also its resilience. His tears carried the weight of a man who has endured personal trials but refuses to give up on the promise of a better Nigeria.

“The tears I cry now are tears of gratitude,” he said. “Theirs will be tears of regret. The people will remember, and history will hold them accountable.”

Farotimi’s vision for Nigeria extends beyond his personal struggle. He dreams of a nation where leaders serve the people, institutions are independent, and democracy thrives. “This fight is not about me—it is about ensuring that every Nigerian becomes a citizen, not a subject,” he said.

He called on Nigerians to remain steadfast, reminding them that the fight for justice is a collective effort. “We do not need arms to win this fight. We need courage, unity, and an unyielding demand for what is right,” he declared.

Dele Farotimi’s fight has become a national struggle—a battle for truth, dignity, and the future of Nigeria. His tears, courage, and words have inspired a movement, uniting Nigerians to demand justice and accountability.

His story is a reminder that truth cannot be silenced, justice cannot be bought, and the will of the people cannot be suppressed indefinitely. “This is our fight,” he concluded. “And we will win.” Farotimi’s legacy continues to unfold as a beacon of hope for a nation yearning for freedom and justice.

Who Will Cry Last?

In the end, Farotimi’s prophetic words—paraphrased, direct, and indirect, but all deeply rooted in the reality of Nigeria’s systemic failures—cast a long shadow over those who orchestrate and sustain the suffering of the people. The Tinubus, the heads of police, judiciary, security forces, and their enablers—friends, families, and beneficiaries of this corrupt empire—may revel in their temporary power and privilege. Yet, Farotimi’s message remains clear: “The tears I cry now are tears of gratitude, but theirs will be tears of regret.”

History is relentless, and justice, though delayed, is inevitable. These oppressors, hidden behind their wealth and influence, cannot shield themselves forever from the reckoning that awaits. Their families, who now enjoy unearned comforts, will one day inherit the weight of the crimes committed to sustain this empire. And when the system they uphold crumbles under the force of truth, accountability, and the people’s demand for justice, it will be their turn to cry. Their regret will echo through history as a reminder of the cost of tyranny.

The Vice-Chairman

Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, FCCPC  

Abuja

Dear Sir.

 SOS ON MASSIVE EXTORTION OF CUSTOMERS BY IKEJA ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION COMPANY, IKEDC

This is to formally alert and seek your urgent intervention on the rampaging extortion drive by the above mentioned company.  

As the sole supplier of electricity in Ikeja where I live in government quarters, IKEDC recently began to deactivate the UNISTAR PRE-PAID METERS SERVING RESIDENTS OF LASG QUARTERS at 47 Sobo Arobiodu Street, Ikeja GRA..  The deactivation continued after the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, FCCPC, warned IKEDC against activities on the UNISTAR meters.( https://guardian.ng/news/respect-directives-on-obsolete-meters-fccpc-warns-discos/; https://thenigerialawyer.com/ikedc-ekedc-cannot-replace-unistar-meters-without-compliance-fccpc/)

What they do is await the exhaustion of the running credits on meters, allow customers to re-charge their cards but ensure they are not able to reload. Once this happens and you report back with your complaints, they would tell you that your meter is bad and due for replacement and that they have new meters in abundance. They would convince you to allow the retrieval of the UNISTAR meter.

Once the customer begins to feel that his hope is merely hanging, the customers  would be compelled to make desperate request for reconnection and they would deceitfully reconnect you but that would make customers pay through their nose.  In the past, customers like me whose monthly consumption hardly exceeded N50,000 following the banding regime had been summarily billed as much as N270,000. Fellow residents of government quarters have had to complain to me on their helplessness and their dramatic bankruptcy on account of this arbitrary billing.

In my own case specifically, my meter was retrieved on Dec 27, 2025 after recharging with N25,000 but failing to reload following their treacherous deactivation. Against my stated position that I was aware of the FCCPC directive to them, they insisted that should  immediately  apply online for a new meter reiterating that they had new meters in abundance but that I would have to pay N120,000.  For fear of wasting all the foods stocked up in the house and to also avoid being slapped with any humongous arbitrary bill, I went to their office to follow up. The response from their customer care operatives at the Ikeja Office was that their portal was down implying that all processes of new meter application had been stalled and therefore arbitrary billing would continue for as long as the portal was down.

I therefore seek your immediate intervention from the shenanigan of IKEDC to stall their onslaught against lawful customers. If they have the effrontery to subject LASG employees living in government quarters to this embarrassing situation, one can imagine what helpless private citizens are being subjected to by IKEDC.

Sincere thanks as I await your immediate intervention for a new meter.

Tunde Akanni

Associate Professor, Faculty of Communication and Media Studies, FCMS.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu extends his deepest condolences to the government and people of the United States of America on the passing of former President Jimmy Carter, who died at the age of 100.

President Carter, the 39th President of the United States, was a beacon of service to humanity, demonstrating to leaders worldwide the profound impact of dedication beyond the highest office.

As a Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and global statesman, President Carter devoted his post-presidential life to the causes of peace, democracy, and the eradication of tropical diseases. His unwavering commitment to these noble pursuits has left an indelible mark on the world.

"President Carter showed us all how to remain relevant and impactful after leaving the esteemed position of President of the United States," remarked President Tinubu.

"He tackled the challenges the developing world faced, from combating diseases to mediating conflicts and promoting democratic values. He exemplified grace, dignity, and a profound respect for humanity."

President Tinubu fondly recalls President Carter as a trustworthy and compassionate friend to Nigeria. He lauds Carter's significant contributions through The Carter Center, particularly his efforts in eradicating Guinea worm disease and river blindness in Nigeria, which have significantly improved the lives of many Nigerians.

Reflecting on Nigeria-U.S. relations, President Tinubu nostalgically remembers President Carter's historic visit to Nigeria in March 1978 and his three-day stay at the State House in Marina, Lagos State. Under Carter's leadership, this visit marked a pivotal moment in U.S. foreign policy. It laid the groundwork for a pragmatic relationship between the United States and Africa, with Nigeria at its heart.

President Tinubu expresses hope that President Carter's legacy of decency, character, and humanity, both in and out of office, will continue to inspire Americans and leaders worldwide to embrace the true essence of leadership.

Bayo Onanuga

Special Adviser to the President

(Information & Strategy)

The Executive Chairman of Epe Local Government, Princess Surah Animashaun, says she has successfully completed the construction of a modern wooden jetty at Take Nla Village, Ward D1, in Epe local government council Area of Lagos state 

Princess Animashaun appreciated the Baales, community leaders and the villagers for their perseverance, patience and support before, during and after completion of the project, promising them more dividends of democracy to the riverine communities of the council areas of Lagos state.

She also reiterated her commitment to driving programmes and policies that would prioritise their social protection, noting that project underscored her unwavering commitment to enhancing the lives of Epe residents and stimulating economic growth in the council's area.

According to her "The newly construction wooden jetty is expected to significantly enhance the village's water transportation system, facilitate trade and commerce, and boost tourism potentials in the region.

"This strategic infrastructure development will create new economic opportunities for villagers, especially the fishermen, it will as well improve the standard of living, and make Epe a more attractive destination for tourists, investors and visitors."

She said her visionary leadership has made the local government council witnessed significant transformations in infrastructure development, education, healthcare, tourism, culture and community engagement, saying her  administration has prioritised inclusive decision-making processes, ensuring that the needs and aspirations of Epe residents are addressed.

While thanking the Chairman for the outstanding achievement, a fisherman, Mr. Salau Olatunji appreciated the Chairman and her exco members for the giant strides, saying that they were looking forward to her continued leadership in driving growth, development, and prosperity in Epe.

The completion of the wooden jetty at Take Nla Village marks a significant milestone in Princess Animashaun's efforts to reposition the council as a thriving economic hub in the comity of councils in Lagos state.

Former Akwa Ibom governor, Udom Emmanuel, has stated categorically that he will not be contesting for senate in the 2027 election, despite pressures from politicians in the state. Speaking at a stakeholders’ meeting on Christmas Day at his country home in ONNA LGA, Emmanuel stressed that he was more interested in promoting peace and harmonious coexistence amongst Akwa Ibom people than contesting elections. He asked community leaders and the youths to remain vigilant against external threats to peace in the state. ‘’Let me use this opportunity to make it clear to all that I will not be seeking the nomination of my party, PDP, or any other party for the senate seat. I am a man of my words. I don’t go back to what I said, both in secret and in open’’, he announced, eliciting applause from the audience that included the incumbent senator. The former governor, however, noted that he's not yet retired from politics, and should he seek to contest for any other position, he would inform the people appropriately.

 Emmanuel’s categorical denial of the rumours that have been swirling around his political future has put paid to widely held speculations that he was raring to fight for the ticket against the incumbent, Senator Ekong Sampson, chairman of the Senate Committee on Solid Minerals. ‘’I thank our leader and former governor for being a decent gentleman who does not want to break the zoning accord; political harmony and peace we have in the senatorial district. He is truly a man of integrity’’, Senator Sampson told me soon after the stakeholders’ meeting. Sampson himself has earned his stripes in grass root politics, law and journalism. He began his career as a journalist in Lagos in the early 1990s, and has since earned a Ph.D in law, in addition to a public service career.

For months since leaving office, Udom Emmanuel has been under pressure to run for the Akwa Ibom South Senatorial seat. Right from 2023 when he completed his eight-year tenure as the fourth democratically elected governor of the state, there were rumours that he was heading for the Senate. But instead, the banker-turned politician contested for Presidential nomination of the PDP in May 2022, to the surprise of many in the state. He got 38 votes, coming after Atiku Abubarkar who won 371 votes; Nyesome Wike (237 votes) and Bukola Saraki (70 votes). Failing to clinch the ticket, Emmanuel turned his eyes on the VP slot, but the position went to Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa. Since then, Emmanuel has slid quietly into private life, satisfied that the person he anointed to succeed him as governor, Pastor Umo Eno, had gotten the job.

However, with 2025 around the corner and preparations for another election season looming, many politicians in the state have continued to pile pressure on the former governor to throw his hat into the ring. ‘’Many of them want Udom to run because they know that as a former governor, he has the resources to spend. They’re professional politicians who live on elections; every election cycle, they will approach people they assess to be rich and try to cajole them to contest and the next thing is that they will give you a well-written proposal on ‘How to Win election’’’, said a PDP chieftain from that district. This could be a correct, but I understand that the former governor is restrained largely by the strict zoning arrangement in the senatorial district which has remained in force since 1999 when Udoma Udo Udoma was elected Senator and the incumbent senator served as his legislative page. For this season, the seat remains in Ikot Abasi Federal Constituency where the incumbent senator, Ekong Sampson, a former Local government chairman; former member of House of Assembly and a former commissioner comes from.

Udom Emmanuel’s declaration is not only a lesson to other politicians, especially former governors who see the Senate as a retirement home, it also has a wider implication for the politics of 2027 in Akwa Ibom State. His decision to stay aloof will lessen the acrimony within the ruling party and give him the latitude to devote more time for the reelection of his political godson, Gov. Umo Eno. It is also likely that Senator Godswill Akpabio will not face any internal challenge within the APC for the Ikot Ekpene senatorial district seat. However, for Uyo Senatorial District, there are indications that Senator Aniekan Bassey will have to battle for a second term nomination with other PDP heavyweights.

Reliance on oil as the only source of revenue by successive governments in Nigeria has for long left the country in a dilemma of inadequacy of funds for development. Among other things, this encouraged the country to approach foreign creditors for huge loans that future generations may never be able to repay. 

Taxes which other nations depend upon for development are unavailable because they are poorly collected and managed in Nigeria. For several years, nothing was done about this precarious situation until July 2023 when the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu decided to set up a Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms to be chaired by Taiwo Oyedele of the famous Price Waterhouse Coopers. 

Following the work of the committee, Tinubu requested the National Assembly to pass 4tax reform proposals, namely: Nigeria Tax Bill, Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Bill and Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill. Almost immediately, many Nigerians mostly politicians started criticising the bills even before reading their contents.

The posture of the legislators was not surprising because it has become fashionable for them to politicise every public policy with some of them falling on each other to demonstrate their purported closeness to the president. There was indeed, the impression that the present assembly had surpassed their immediate predecessors who told anyone that cared to hear that they would approve any request from former President Muhammadu Buhari. In the case of our current lawmakers, they appear ready to approve 5 even if only 4 bills were sent by Tinubu. Whereas collaborative federalism has its advantages, it is certainly harmful for sycophantic legislators to automatically approve executive requests without checking to remove inconsistencies or even grammatical errors in such requests. 

The negative attitude of some legislators to the tax bills was thus informed by the fear that if care was not taken, they might not be read before they are passed. As one legislator said at an informal gathering, the other day, one needs to be watchful before the bills follow the pattern of the change of the national anthem. This background also explains the speed by which the tax bills found their way into the deliberations of the National Economic Council NEC, as well as the call by NEC for the bills to be withdrawn for further vetting before returning them to the National Assembly for deliberations. First, the NEC being an advisory body should not make such directive statements. Second, a bill does not have to be perfect before legislators can read and debate its contents. In fact, the inputs of legislators ought to enhance the quality of bills.  

Instead of allowing interested citizens to express their views on the bills, almost every person who did not oppose the bills became an enemy to be condemned – a good example being the deputy senate president Barau Jubril. Even governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State was fiercely criticised for supposedly opposing the tax reform bill, only because he was one of those mandated to explain the position of the National Economic Council. Speaking later at a media chat in Ibadan, Makinde asserted that he was not opposed to the tax reform bills, but that the Federal Government needed to engage with a wider array of stakeholders to achieve a meaningful reform. He then counselled Nigerians to learn to focus on the message rather than the messenger.

While public comments on the bills suggests a step forward in making Nigeria become a communicating nation, citizens also need to understand the formal processes and procedures for policy making. Bills are not expected to be passed without an opportunity for the public to make comments. The flood of comments especially those made by people who are convinced that the bills could dismember the nation are therefore hasty. Why can’t sub-national governments, interest groups and other associations arrange rational dialogues that could produce superior arguments over some of the provisions of the bills? Instead, it appears that some of the negative comments and threats are no more than bogus alarms.

It is however true that stakeholder’s engagements on the bills have been scanty and incoherent. As a result, not many people are fully aware of the bills and what they convey. There is therefore no better time than now for societal institutions such as the National Orientation Agency NOA, to take the highlights of the bills to all nooks and cranny of the country. Luckily, the Agency’s current chief executive who appears greatly energised by an obvious synergy between him and the information minister is well positioned to take on mass mobilization of Nigerians with the purpose of convincing them to appreciate the objectives and merits of the tax bills. But more importantly, the federal government can easily get from NOA, robust feedback on the disposition of Nigerians concerning the bills.

For sure, not all Nigerians are opposed to the tax bills. Whereas a large number of those said to be opposed to the bills are Northerners, there are people in the region who appear to embrace the bills. A review of comments from the North breaks the region into 3 distinct groups; namely: those in favour of the bills, then those who are only partially opposed and lastly those who are totally opposed to the reforms. For those who are not opposed to the bills, there is Senator Diket Plang, representing Plateau South in the National Assembly, who has found it necessary to ‘urge Nigerians to support credible governance initiatives and avoid fear over tax reform proposals, regardless of their origin.’

Yakubu Dogara, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, who also supports the bills made a scathing critique of Northern leadership, ‘accusing them of neglecting the region’s development despite decades of political dominance.’ He spoke at a town hall meeting organized by the Christian Awareness Initiative of Nigeria (CHAIN) in Kaduna, where the group resolved to support the tax reform initiative because of its benefits for the region and Nigeria at large. This group is slightly different from those who are only partially opposed to the bills. In this later groups are experts and stakeholders who at a roundtable discussion organized by the Kaduna Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (KADCCIMA) said they are partially opposing the proposed reforms because of fear of poor implementation.

On their part, the most influential group made of governors of the 19 northern states are unanimously opposed to the bills. At a meeting in Kaduna in October, the governors rejected the proposed tax bills which they said would jeopardise the well-being of their people. The apprehension of most of them is probably the suspicion that the bills favour Nigeria’s economic capital Lagos and the Rivers State in the oil-producing Niger delta, where most of the offices of local and foreign companies are located. The governors’ opposition appears to be conditional because they have since called on lawmakers from the region to reject the bills and ensure they were not passed into law until the controversial clauses were amended. But why will the controversial clauses not be amended?

Are the leaders sincere or are they like ordinary people misled by certain parochial interests? The question becomes relevant as other people have said the views of the governors are false. Bamidele Opeyemi, leader of the senate says “credible data have shown, for instance, that the new model recommends 6.17% to Kano compared to 0.89% currently due to it. It recommends 1.21% for Zamfara compared to 0.05%. Currently, Lagos gets 80.26%, but the new model only recommends 15.28%, representing an 81% decrease. Under the new model, also, Rivers’ share will decline from 7.74% to 4.6%, accounting for 41%. With these figures, the narrative around the new derivation model is utterly incorrect and unfounded.”

Whoever is fooling who, our politicians, be they apostles or opponents of President Tinubu, need to recognize that Nigeria does not belong to them alone and that false statements are tantamount to fake news which are harmful to national growth and integration. Our leaders should beware of centrifugal factors in heterogenous Nigeria that can at the slightest provocation stretch to breaking point.

I have been asked severally what my opinion was on last week’s presidential media chat. First, I must commend the presidency for hosting the chat, though belatedly after 19 months of holding back. When the people hear directly from their leaders and not from third parties they didn’t elect, it affords them opportunity to psycho-analyze the man at the helm of affairs, match his gestures with policies and project what the leadership’s future strides will be.

It was also gladsome to see the president radiating warmth, confidence and mastery of his craft. He appeared to have learned the ropes of a limitless presidential powers. He must have warmed himself up to the behemoth powers at his disposal, next to God’s. You could see this as he exuded confidence in himself and his office. Unlike the pre-and early Bola Tinubu presidency optics we had, the president appeared physically stable and in better health. I was glad to see stability as he raised his hands in gesticulation. We thank God for presidential health mercies.

But, why did the presidential office air a recorded, rather than live interview? Could it be to be able to spike off magisterial comments and gaffes that may reveal the Leviathan in his true colours? As they say, the divide between confidence and arrogance, much as it is as long as the Zambezi River, could be paper thin as well. Though clothed in a cloak of confidence, the Bola Tinubu I saw in that interview wore arrogance on his lapel. Beneath that, you could see a God mentality. I didn’t hear anywhere throughout the interview where the president accepted that he was human, capable of frailties and wrongs. I saw King Herod and the clowns of power shouting, “This is the voice of God, not man!” The tax bills were chiselled straight from the stone plate of Moses, he seemed to have said. They are irreversible. And to the north which thought it had him by the balls, like the man who knows tomorrow, the president proclaimed that he would live till 2027, go through the presidential election and win. He would not probe military top brass whose fat stomachs and fat epaulettes are euphemisms for the toads of wars – apologies to Eddie Iroh – which they have become from filching Nigeria’s wealth in an endless war. He didn’t err when, pounced upon by the Herodian spirit, he pronounced that “subsidy was gone,” he said. While Nigerians die in droves from hunger, the president literally clinked wine glasses for being the greatest reformist in human history.

When I heard the president compare his reform to a woman going through the pangs of labour – “and the child may die” – but at the end of the birth, everybody is happy, the mentality that drives the president came out vividly to me like the first flick of a movie in a dark cinema. I saw a heart scarred and scorched like the sand dunes of the desert. I didn’t see blood flowing through the veins at all. Immediately I understood. The political furnace has forged in the smithy a stone statue devoid of feelings.

Nigeria of the 1950s and early 1960s had very many interesting personalities. Western Region had its fair share of such. One of them was a man named Súàrá Sòbó (Sobo pronounced as ‘Sorbor’). He was a prominent transporter who held the transportation industry of the time by its jugular. It became a peculiar refrain in the Western Region to say a man had entered Súàrá Sòbó’s lorry, an equivalent of today’s One Chance lingo among youth. Odolaye Aremu, then Ibadan-based, Ilorin-born Dadakúàdà musician, once sang of the untimely passage of Súàrá Sòbó, years after. At a celebration in his house, said Odolaye, Súàrá Sòbó had hosted the crème de la crème of Ibadan, where roast mutton and turkey flesh were feasted upon. People were shocked when, six days later, Súàrá Sòbó’s sudden death was announced to the world.

As I stood up from watching the interview, I shook my head languidly. I was sorry for us. All I saw were 200 million Nigerians sequestered inside the Súàrá Sòbó bus. We must pray that the Herodian spirit which pounced on Olusegun Obasanjo doesn’t repeat its tragic pounce on Mr. President. If it does, Tinubu would have a third term and more, becoming an Hastings Kamuzu Banda at the drop of a hat. And nothing would happen.