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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:45
How a computer that 'drunk dials' videos is exposing YouTube's secrets
YouTube is about to turn 20. An unusual research method is unveiling statistics about the platform that Google would rather keep hidden.
YouTube may not seem secretive. It's public facing. You can watch an endless stream of content from now until your dying breath. There's been a mountain of research about the platform, unpacking everything from the commodified economy that surrounds it to the radicalising effects of its algorithm. But the picture goes blurry when you start asking simple questions. For example: how much YouTube do we all watch?
Google, which owns YouTube, is quiet about that and many other details. In February, the company revealed that people who access YouTube on their TVs collectively watch one billion hours a day, but total numbers for the platform are an enigma. Estimates say YouTube has around 2.5 billion monthly users – almost one in three people on Earth – and the average mobile app user watches something like 29 hours a month. With that, let's try some back-of-the-napkin maths.
If we make a few assumptions, and say that monthly viewing average for app users can be applied across all YouTube users on both the website and television, we can multiply 2.5 billion by 29 hours. This would tell us that humanity consumes something like 8.3 million years of videos on YouTube every month. Over 12 months, that adds up to almost 100 million years, hundreds of times longer than the sum total of human history.
How many YouTube videos are there? What are they about? What languages do YouTubers speak? As of 14 February 2025, the platform's will have been running for 20 years. That is a lot of video. Yet we have no idea just how many there really are. Google knows the answers. It just won't tell you.
Experts say that's a problem. For all practical purposes, one of the most powerful communication systems ever created – a tool that provides a third of the world's population with information and ideas – is operating in the dark.
In part that's because there's no easy way to get a random sampling of videos, according to Ethan Zuckerman, director of the Initiative for Digital Public Infrastructure at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst in the US. You can pick your videos manually or go with the algorithm's recommendations, but an unbiased selection that's worthy of real study is hard to come by. A few years ago, however, Zuckerman and his team of researchers came up with a solution: they designed a computer program that pulls up YouTube videos at random, trying billions of URLs at a time.
University of Massachusetts at Amherst/ BBCYou might call the tool a bot, but that's probably over selling it, Zuckerman says. "A more technically accurate term would be 'scraper'," he says. The scraper's findings are giving us a first-time perspective on what's actually happening on YouTube.
In its 20 years of operation, YouTube has shaped entire generations' sensibilities and redefined global culture. Surveys show YouTube is the most popular social media site in the US by far, with 83% of adults and 93% of teenagers among its patrons. It's the second-most-visited website on Earth by most estimates, topped only by Google.com itself. But as the platform enters its third decade, the most basic facts about YouTube are still a closely guarded secret.
A Google spokesperson shared a blogpost about the platform's recommendation algorithm, but declined to comment on the statistics and other issues mentioned in this story. For now, YouTube's mysteries continue.
Unusual methods
"It's extremely difficult to get a grasp on what's going on inside social media platforms, because while the companies that operate them do make certain public disclosures, those disclosures are fragmentary and often somewhat misleading," says Paul Barrett, deputy director of the New York University Stern Center for Business and Human Rights. "I think there's an instinct at Google that it's not in their interest to emphasise just how gargantuan YouTube is, how titanic the number of users, how phenomenal the amount of content. Google doesn't want to be seen as influential as it really is."
But Zuckerman and his colleagues found a way to peek behind the curtain. YouTube URL's have a standard format. With a few exceptions, the addresses begin with "youtube.com/watch?v=" and end with a unique string of 11 characters. Gangnam Style's identifier is 9bZkp7q19f0, for example.
So, the researchers wrote a program that basically generates 11 random characters and checks if there's a corresponding video. When the scraper finds one, it downloads it. Zuckerman says you can think of it like a pesky teenager, punching in random numbers for prank calls after dipping into his parent's liquor cabinet.
Estudio Santa Rita"If I wanted to know how many valid phone numbers there are in New York's 212 area code, I could just dial 212 and seven random numbers to see if somebody answers. I'd probably get cursed out a lot if I did it enough, but eventually I'd gather enough data to figure it out," Zuckerman says. "That's what we did with YouTube. The thing is, YouTube has 18.6 quintillion potential numbers, so you have to dial a few billion before someone picks up."
So, Zuckerman's lab let the scraper drunk dial YouTube, over and over again, until it put together a big enough data set. To collect the first 10,016 videos they gathered for their initial study, the scraper tried more than 18 trillion potential URLs. It took almost 1.87 billion bad guesses for every real video it found. If you did that work yourself, spending three seconds on each try, it would take an average of 178 years before you landed on a single video.
When the researchers analysed their findings, the results challenged the prevailing narrative about what YouTube actually is.
Secret stats
The first question was simple. How many videos have people uploaded to YouTube? Google used to release that statistic in the early days, back when YouTube had something to prove. When Google first acquired the platform in 2006, around 65,000 videos were uploaded every day. More recently the company says more than 500 hours are uploaded per minute, but it's tight-lipped about the number of videos.
Zuckerman and his colleagues compared the number of videos they found to the number of guesses it took, and arrived an estimate: in 2022, they calculated that YouTube housed more than nine billion videos. By mid 2024, that number had grown to 14.8 billion videos, a 60% jump.
For many, YouTube brings to mind the faces of bright-eyed influencers vying for money and fame, or professional content creators like MrBeast or Joe Rogan. But the researchers then took a subset of the videos and had human reviewers watch each one to answer a series of questions about what they saw. For the most part, they didn't find the work of professionals.
University of Massachusetts at Amherst/ Yun Sun Park/ BBCOnly 0.21% of the videos they analysed featured any kind of monetisation, such as a sponsorship or an advertisement in the video itself. Less than 4% of the videos included a call to action like YouTube's famous invitations to like, comment and subscribe.
Those with some kind of set or background design accounted for 14% of videos, while only 38% had undergone any form of editing. More than half of the videos had "noticeably shaky" camera work. Only around 18% of videos we're judged to have high quality sound, and the sound quality varied significantly almost 85% of the time. More than 40% had just music, and no speech. About 16% of videos in the sample were primarily still images.
The top YouTubers attract audiences in the hundreds of millions, but the researchers estimated the median number of views for a YouTube videos is just 41, and 4% of videos haven't been watched a single time. About 74% of videos have zero comments. Around 89% have no likes. Typical YouTube videos aren't just getting little attention it seems, they're also very short. They assessed that the median YouTube video is only 64 seconds long, and more than a third of videos are less than 33 seconds long.
Troubling questions
YouTube once sold itself as a tool for regular people. The company's early slogan was "broadcast yourself". But today, YouTube suggests it's more of a service for people to watch the work of professional creators. In his annual letter at the start of 2025, YouTube's chief executive Neal Mohan said the company's mission is still to "give everyone a voice" – but most of the message was a discussion about how "YouTubers are becoming the start-ups of Hollywood" and "YouTube is the new television".
This narrative misses a critical piece of the picture, says Ryan McGrady, the senior researcher in Zuckerman's lab, who participated in the scraping project. YouTube is a free service that was built from the ground up by a private company, and it could be argued that Google should be able to run the platform as such. But when you examine how people are actually using YouTube, it looks less like TV and more like infrastructure, McGrady says.
University of Massachusetts at Amherst/ Yun Sun Park/ BBC(To identify languages, the researchers used speech recognition software called Whisper. It paints a fairly accurate picture, but makes occasional errors. For example, Whisper sometimes identifies unintelligible sounds as Nynorsk, a written-only language in Norway.)
"Most of us imagine YouTube as this place where millionaires give away prizes in a Squid-Game-style contest," he says. "But when you want to have a conversation about YouTube and its place in our society, we need to look at the ways it's used, not just the ways it's consumed."
YouTube is one of the internet's de facto repositories, the first place many of us go when we have videos we want to post or store online. It's also a place where local authority meetings are broadcast, for example, providing a vital opportunity for public accountability in ways that weren't possible before it existed. It isn't just a "platform", McGrady says, it's a critical piece of infrastructure, and that's how it should be regulated. "For companies that own so much of our public sphere, there are some minimum expectations we should have about transparency."
Google is dealing with more regulatory pressure than ever before. The company has faced multiple cases across the globe accusing it of running illegal monopolies in several industries. Google has lost several of them, and is currently fighting a number of other antitrust lawsuits.
But YouTube has escaped much of the scrutiny that's challenged its biggest social media competitors, according to Barrett of New York University. Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk make frequent, loud pronouncements about how they do business and what's happening on their platforms. "Google, in contrast, has largely stayed out of the crossfire by choosing a strategy of being much quieter, a strategy I'd say has largely worked for them," he says.
"Social media is an anomaly when it comes to how little companies need to explain themselves if you compare it to other industries like finance, or agriculture or even broadcasting," Barrett says. "But social media companies are fundamental players not just in mass communication but in all matters of political and civic life."
The most important thing to understand is the inner workings of YouTube's algorithm, a system that has astronomical power over the distribution of information all over the world, Barrett says. But simple details about what happens on the platform are important as well. "It would be very valuable to know all of the facts that are currently so shrouded and unavailable. They are the building blocks of doing deeper research," he says. "It only takes you so far, but you've got to start someplace. The more basic information we have to assess, the healthier the public debate about the role of social media in society will be."
* Thomas Germain is a senior technology journalist for the BBC. He's covered AI, privacy and the furthest reaches of internet culture for the better part of a decade. You can find him on X and TikTok @thomasgermain.
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This article was originally published on 13 February 2025, and updated on 20 February 2025 with additional information about the software researchers used to classify langauges.
[BBC]
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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:42
Qatar Signs Deal with Scale AI to Use AI to Boost Government Services
Qatar's government has signed a five-year deal with AI data company Scale AI to deploy AI-powered tools and training in a push to improve government services in the Gulf Arab state, a senior Scale AI executive told Reuters on Sunday.
"(This deal) can be a blueprint for other governments around the world, and it allows us to really commit in a way that I think could drive impact even faster," said Trevor Thompson, global head of growth at the San Francisco, California-based company.
The deal will allow Qatar's government to adopt tools such as predictive analytics, automation and advanced data analysis in an effort to streamline operations, said a statement by Qatar's communications and information technology ministry.
Scale AI will develop more than 50 possible uses of artificial intelligence (AI) for Qatar's government over the next five years, the statement added.
[english.aawsat]
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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:38
Chinese medical devices are in health systems across U.S., and the government and hospitals are worried
KEY POINTS
- Chinese-made medical devices pose an imminent threat, warn the FDA, CISA and the American Hospital Association.
- The federal government’s cyber watchdog recently discovered a “backdoor” that can easily be exploited on a widely used piece of hospital monitoring equipment.
- Chinese-made medical devices are found in almost every corner of the health-care ecosystem due to relatively low costs, and there are at least thousands of these monitors in hospitals and clinics across the U.S.
A popular medical monitor is the latest device produced in China to receive scrutiny for its potential cyber risks. However, it is not the only health device we should be concerned about. Experts say the proliferation of Chinese health-care devices in the U.S. medical system is a cause for concern across the entire ecosystem.
The Contec CMS8000 is a popular medical monitor that tracks a patient’s vital signs. The device tracks electrocardiograms, heart rate, blood oxygen saturation, non-invasive blood pressure, temperature, and respiration rate. In recent months, the FDA and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) both warned about a “backdoor” in the device, an “easy-to-exploit vulnerability that could allow a bad actor to alter its configuration.”
CISA’s research team described “anomalous network traffic” and the backdoor “allowing the device to download and execute unverified remote files” to an IP address not associated with a medical device manufacturer or medical facility but a third-party university — “highly unusual characteristics” that go against generally accepted practices, “especially for medical devices.”
“When the function is executed, files on the device are forcibly overwritten, preventing the end customer—such as a hospital—from maintaining awareness of what software is running on the device,” CISA wrote.
The warnings says such configuration alteration could lead to, for instance, the monitor saying that a patient’s kidneys are malfunctioning or breathing failing, and that could cause medical staff to administer unneeded remedies that could be harmful.
The Contec’s vulnerability doesn’t surprise medical and IT experts who have warned for years that medical device security is too lax.
Hospitals are worried about cyber risks
“This is a huge gap that is about to explode,” said Christopher Kaufman, a business professor at Westcliff University in Irvine, California, who specializes in IT and disruptive technologies, specifically referring to the security gap in many medical devices.
The American Hospital Association, which represents over 5,000 hospitals and clinics in the U.S., agrees. It views the proliferation of Chinese medical devices as a serious threat to the system.
As for the Contec monitors specifically, the AHA says the problem urgently needs to be addressed.
“We have to put this at the top of the list for the potential for patient harm; we have to patch before they hack,” said John Riggi, national advisor for cybersecurity and risk for the American Hospital Association. Riggi also served in FBI counterterrorism roles before joining the AHA.
CISA reports that no software patch is available to help mitigate this risk, but in its advisory said the government is currently working with Contec.
Contec, headquartered in Qinhuangdao, China, did not return a request for comment.
One of the problems is that it is unknown how many monitors there are in the U.S.
“We don’t know because of the sheer volume of equipment in hospitals. We speculate there are, conservatively, thousands of these monitors; this is a very critical vulnerability,” Riggi said, adding that Chinese access to the devices can pose strategic, technical, and supply chain risks.
In the short-term, the FDA advised medical systems and patients to make sure the devices are only running locally or to disable any remote monitoring; or if remote monitoring is the only option, to stop using the device if an alternative is available. The FDA said that to date it is not aware of any cybersecurity incidents, injuries, or deaths related to the vulnerability.
The American Hospital Association has also told its members that until a patch is available, hospitals should make sure the monitor no longer has access to the internet, and is segmented from the rest of the network.
Riggi said the while the Contec monitors are a prime example of what we don’t often consider among health care risk, it extends to a range of medical equipment produced overseas. Cash-strapped U.S. hospitals, he explained, often buy medical devices from China, a country with a history of installing destructive malware inside critical infrastructure in the U.S. Low-cost equipment buys the Chinese potential access to a trove of American medical information that can be repurposed and aggregated for all sorts of purposes. Riggs says data is often transmitted to China with the stated purpose of monitoring a device’s performance, but little else is known about what happens to the data beyond that.
Riggi says individuals aren’t at acute medical risk as much as the information being collected and aggregated for repurposing and putting the larger medical system at risk. Still, he points out that, at least theoretically, is can’t be ruled out that prominent Americans with medical devices could be targeted for disruption.
“When we talk to hospitals, CEOS are surprised, they had no idea about the dangers of these devices, so we are helping them understand. The question for government is how to incentivize domestic production, away from overseas,” Riggi said.
Chinese data collection on Americans
The Contec warning is similar at a general level to TikTok, DeepSeek, TP-Link routers, and other devices and technology from China that the U.S. government says are collecting data on Americans. “And that is all I need to hear in deciding whether to buy medical devices from China,” Riggi said.
Aras Nazarovas, an information security researcher at Cybernews, agrees that the CISA threat raises serious issues that need to be addressed.
“We have a lot to fear,” Nazarovas said. Medical devices, like the Contec CMS8000, often have access to highly sensitive patient data and are directly connected to life-saving functions. Nazarovas says that when the devices are poorly defended, they become easy prey for hackers who can manipulate the displayed data, alter vital settings, or disable the device completely.
“In some cases, these devices are so poorly protected that attackers can gain remote access and change how the device operates without the hospital or patients ever knowing,” Nazarovas said.
The consequences of the Contec vulnerability and vulnerabilities in an array of Chinese-made medical devices could easily be life-threatening.
“Imagine a patient monitor that stops alerting doctors to a drop in a patient’s heart rate or sends incorrect readings, leading to a delayed or wrong diagnosis,” Nazarovas said. In the case of the Contec CMS8000, and Epsimed MN-120 (a different brand name for the same tech), warning from the government, these devices were configured to allow remote code execution by the remote server.
“This functionality can be used as an entry point into the hospital’s network,” Nazarovas said, leading to patient danger.
More hospitals and clinics are paying attention. Bartlett Regional Hospital in Juneau, Alaska, does not use the Contec monitors but is always looking for risks. “Regular monitoring is critical as the risk of cybersecurity attacks on hospitals continues to increase,” says Erin Hardin, a spokeswoman for Bartlett.
However, regular monitoring may not be enough as long as devices are made with poor security.
Potentially making matters worse, Kaufman says, is that the Department of Government Efficiency is hollowing out departments in charge of safeguarding such devices. According to the Associated Press, many of the recent layoffs at the FDA are employees who review the safety of medical devices.
Kaufman laments the likely lack of government supervision on what is already, he says, a loosely regulated industry. A U.S. Government Accountability Office report as of January 2022, indicated that 53% of connected medical devices and other Internet of Things devices in hospitals had known critical vulnerabilities. He says the problem has only gotten worse since then. “I’m not sure what is going to be left running these agencies,” Kaufman said.
“Medical device issues are widespread and have been known for some time now,” said Silas Cutler, principal security researcher at medical data company Censys. “The reality is that the consequences can be dire – and even deadly. While high-profile individuals are at heightened risk, the most impacted are going to be the hospital systems themselves, with cascading effects on everyday patients.”
[CNBC}
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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:34
Australia fines Telegram for delay in answering child abuse, terror questions
Australia's online safety regulator on Monday fined messaging platform Telegram about A$1 million ($640,000) for its delay in answering questions about measures the app took to prevent the spread of child abuse and violent extremist material.
The e-Safety Commission in March 2024 sought responses from social media platforms YouTube (GOOGL.O), opens new tab, X and Facebook (META.O), opens new tab to Telegram and Reddit, and blamed them for not doing enough to stop extremists from using live-streaming features, algorithms and recommendation systems to recruit users.
Telegram and Reddit were asked about the steps they were taking to combat child sexual abuse material on their services. They had to respond by May but Telegram submitted its response in October.
"Timely transparency is not a voluntary requirement in Australia and this action reinforces the importance of all companies complying with Australian law," eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant said in a statement.
Telegram's delay in providing information obstructed e Safety from implementing its online safety measures, Grant said.
Australia's spy agency in December said one in five priority counter-terrorism cases investigated involved youths.
The messaging platform has been under growing scrutiny around the world since its founder Pavel Durov was placed under formal investigation in France in August in connection with alleged use of the app for illegal activities.
Durov, who is out on bail, has denied the allegations.
Grant said Big Tech must be transparent and put in place measures to prevent their services from being misused as the threat posed by online extremist materials poses a growing risk.
"If we want accountability from the tech industry we need much greater transparency. These powers give us a look under the hood at just how these platforms are dealing, or not dealing, with a range of serious and egregious online harms which affect Australians," Grant said.
If Telegram choose to ignore the penalty notice, eSafety would seek a civil penalty in the court, Grant said.
($1 = 1.5625 Australian dollars)
[Reuters]
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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:32
[OPINION] Trump is right to ban CBDCs, and other countries will follow - Alice Shikova
![[OPINION] Trump is right to ban CBDCs, and other countries will follow - Alice Shikova](/media/k2/items/cache/dc338e4f3a562cf9594de75e5d9e2bd6_Generic.jpg)
Banning digital assets makes about as much sense as regulating against gravity. How many times did the market dip, back in 2017, on the news that China was banning Bitcoin 
BTC-0.92%Bitcoin, only to promptly recover at the realization of the notion’s absurdity?
But while Bitcoin is, to all intents and purposes, unbannable, the same can’t be said of central bank digital currencies—digital forms of national currencies issued and regulated by their central banks. In fact, that’s one of their core properties. Otherwise, governments couldn’t put their citizens in the naughty chair when they fall out of line by prohibiting their right to buy groceries.
To be fair, most governments aren’t as heavy-handed as China, with its notorious social credit scoring and rampant surveillance. Instead, they are seeking to develop digital currencies for boring bureaucratic purposes, such as greater administrative efficiency and economic data gathering.
Still, it’s no coincidence that China has been one of the biggest proponents of CBDCs and is racing ahead with its own implementation. And it should, therefore, come as no surprise that the United States, which instinctively inverts every Chinese position, should have canceled its own digital dollar after President Trump laid the banhammer.
There’s a beautiful yin and yang-ness to China banning Bitcoin and the US banning CBDCs. The self-perpetuating cycle is complete. Trump’s decision, like many that emulate from his “shoot first and ask questions later” government, is somewhat reactionary. However, sometimes, shooting first is the smartest thing you can do, and in this case, Trump has hit the target.
America’s digital dollar deserves to be shot down—as do those of every other Western nation. Not because the concept is wrong but because the implementation certainly is. If billions of citizens are going to have their data and financial assets placed on a global database, it’s going to need much better privacy protections than the current proposals offer.
The first domino falls
There are all kinds of ironies wrapped up in Trump’s decision to ban digital dollar. Like his willingness to countenance a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or endorse a $TRUMP memecoin while simultaneously shunning a digital currency with a potential real-world use case. But even his most vocal critics have had little to say about this mandate.
While the US was by no means the staunchest advocate for a digital currency, with numerous nations much closer to launching their own efforts, the idea was very much on the table until Trump yanked the cloth. In becoming the first President to outright ban a CBDC, he’s tipped a domino that could cause other nations to follow suit, and the reason cited resonates with the people—privacy.
While other Western nations, especially in Europe, like to maintain the impression that they’re nobody’s master, the uncomfortable truth is that US decisions exert a strong pull on EU policy. Thus, America’s curtailing of its own CBDC will inevitably weaken the case for the EU’s digital euro and prompt renewed scrutiny of the purported privacy protections. If the EU wishes to get its own CBDC over the line, it will first need to return to the drawing board.
No privacy, no point
Despite the digital euro being described as being “as private as cash,” this isn’t strictly true. The potential for governments, NGOs, and other shadowy organizations to gain unwarranted insight into citizens’ spending habits—and to censor transactions or “cancel” customers altogether—is very real.
That’s not to suggest that backers of the digital euro are acting out of bad faith necessarily, more out of bad tech. Blockchain evolves fast while the wheels of policymaking turn slow, meaning that by the time digital currency pilots have been greenlit, the underlying tech is already looking tired. As anyone directly involved in web3 will tell you, there are now far better ways to enforce onchain privacy while maintaining compliance—ways that don’t involve placing the privacy of every citizen on a massive database and then broadcasting it for all the world to see.
From ZK proofs to fully homomorphic encryption, privacy standards have become more robust and feature-rich in recent years, allowing for nuanced disclosure of sensitive data without leaving it at risk of exposure to centralized entities and potential malicious actors. Crucially, onchain encryption standards have also become much lighter, allowing for more efficient computation.
Indeed, ZKs and FHE are the sorts of technologies that would be ideally suited to facilitating the outcomes the EU wishes to achieve with its digital euro, such as tiered privacy in which low-value purchases are lightly scrutinized and high-value ones are subject to more intensive checks.
The good news is it’s not too late to remedy this: the digital euro is still at an early stage, with its final implementation still being worked out. There’s time to get this right. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the whirlwind that is the Trump administration, it’s that a lot can be achieved in a month. There’s no need to move fast and break stuff.
But make no mistake, the EU does need to move and signal that its own digital currency will be everything the proposed digital yuans and dollars of the world are not: Secure. Private. Robust. Otherwise, it risks being canceled, just like CBDCs in the US.
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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:24
Ethereum wavers as Bybit ETH reserves rise after Lazarus hack
Ethereum price held steady as the market came to terms with the $1.4 billion hack by the Lazarus Group.
Ethereum 
ETH2.07%Ethereum traded at $2,795 on Sunday, a few points above last Friday’s low of $2,665. It remains about 32% below the highest level in December last year.
Coinglass data shows that Ethereum balances on Bybit have started rising after crashing on Friday following the hack. Balances rose to over 200,000 or $558 million, up from last Friday’s low of 61,000.
There are two potential reasons for the ongoing Ethereum balances on Bybit. First, there is a likelihood that Bybit is actively buying ETH from the market as it seeks to boost confidence with its users.
Second, the ongoing rise is a sign that customers are transferring ETH to the exchange as confidence rises. That’s because Bybit has maintained that it will cover 100% of the stolen Ethereum coins. Bybit has also launched a $140 million to track down the funds, a move that may see part of them returned.
These events are happening after North Korea’s Lazarus Group allegedly accessed Bybit’s cold wallets and stole ETH tokens worth $1.4 billion. In addition to its scale, this hack raised concerns about the safety of crypto assets stored in cold wallets, by exchanges.
Ethereum price may be at risk of a bigger dive
The daily chart shows that Ethereum may be at risk of a bigger dive in the near term. It has already formed a death cross pattern as the 200-day and 50-day weighted moving averages crossed each other. It is one of the most bearish chart patterns in technical analysis.
Ethereum price has also formed a bearish flag chart pattern, a popular continuation sign. This pattern is made up of a vertical line and a consolidation. This consolidation also resembles a rising wedge pattern.
Therefore, the ETH token will likely have a bearish breakdown, with the next reference level being at $2,155, the lowest point this year, which is about 23% below the current level.
The bullish outlook will become invalid if the coin jumps above the 200-day WMA point at $3,085.
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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:22
'We're super early': Fred Krueger says Bitcoin is still in its 'first inning' like Apple in 2008
Bitcoin is still in its early days, and its price is poised for “massively high returns” over the next two to three decades, according to Wall Street veteran and mathematician Fred Krueger.
“We're super early. We're very, very early,” Krueger said in an interview on Jamie Tree podcast. “We're at the beginning of probably a 20-year journey of massively high returns. It’s going to be… 20 or maybe even 30 years.”
Krueger dismissed the idea that Bitcoin has already peaked, emphasizing that despite its rapid growth, it remains in the “first inning” of its long-term trajectory. He compared it to major tech stocks like Apple and Amazon, where even after early surges, valuations continued to skyrocket.
"I owned Apple in 2008, and I bought it when they first came out with the iPhone. The stock doubled… and then it doubled again. And then I thought, ‘Oh, I’m done. Great trade.’ And then it went up 50 times after that,” he said.
Krueger sees Bitcoin following the same pattern, urging investors to extend their time horizon. “This thing will just work, and it will work,” he stated. “You gotta just extend your time frame to about a decade.”
Bitcoin’s path to the ultra-wealthy
While retail investors have been the primary drivers of past bull markets, Krueger believes the next major wave will be led by institutional capital and high-net-worth individuals.
"If millionaires and billionaires decide to increase their Bitcoin exposure from a negligible 0.01% to just 2%, that small adjustment could unleash an avalanche of capital into Bitcoin," he said. “There’s so much money in real estate, bonds, and overpriced stocks… they just don’t have enough allocation.”
Krueger pointed to the recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs as a key catalyst for mainstream adoption among the ultra-wealthy. Previously, accessing Bitcoin required opening accounts on crypto exchanges or dealing with complex self-custody solutions. Now, traditional investors can allocate to Bitcoin through financial products like BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC.
“All they need to do is just allocate a very small amount into IBIT or FBTC, and those guys are going to clean up,” he said.
For those who still feel they may have missed out, Krueger had one message: "You're very, very early. Less than 1% of rich people even have any Bitcoin. There’s going to be a lot of great gains."
[TheStreet]
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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:20
1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 4,000% According to Cathie Wood
Cathie Wood is known for her exciting and optimistic long-term growth projections. Her investment fund has jumped into some of the trendiest companies and securities of the last decade.
Not all her investments have turned out profitable, but there's no doubt that she understands the world differently than most investors. And this unique mindset has allowed her to pinpoint some major growth investments before the general market gets turned on. Right now, she's a huge fan of an iconic cryptocurrency that she believes could soar in value in the years and decades to come, generating massive wealth for patient investors.
Cathie Wood loves this cryptocurrency
When it comes to cryptocurrencies, Cathie Wood loves Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). She's been talking about Bitcoin for years, and her long-term projections are truly mouthwatering.
Wood uses the year 2030 for her price predictions, and she has four scenarios that she believes could play out in the five or so years ahead:
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Bear case: $258,500
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Base case: $682,000
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Bull case: $1,480,000
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Bullish case: $3,800,000
So even in her bear case, Wood believes Bitcoin's price will more than double by 2030. That's a solid return over a five-year period. In her base case, however, Bitcoin's price will rise by more than 500%. And in her most bullish scenario, a $100 investment in Bitcoin today would be worth nearly $4,000 by 2030.
To be clear, Wood has put her money and her clients' money where her mouth is. "We were the first public asset manager to gain exposure to Bitcoin in 2015 at $250," she revealed in an interview last year. And she believes that her bullish scenarios have actually gotten more likely with a more friendly regulatory climate, plus gradually more willingness for institutional investors to allocate capital to the largest cryptocurrency in the world.
"With this institutional green light that the SEC has provided, kicking and screaming though it did, the analysis we've done is that if institutional investors were to allocate a little more than 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, as we think they will over time, that alone would add $2.3 million to the projection I just gave you," Wood concludes.
One reason to add Bitcoin to your portfolio
Many investors have already added Bitcoin to their investment portfolios, either through direct purchases or by buying a Bitcoin ETF. If you haven't done so, now is the time.
It's very rare for new asset classes to be created, but Bitcoin is the exception. It has the longest running track record of any cryptocurrency, which gives it a name recognition and reputation edge that only grows over time. And while its price has been very volatile, it's clear that awareness and adoption continues to gradually grow. Because Bitcoin's supply is finite over the long term, this has caused its price to soar over the long term.
Zooming out, Bitcoin is likely just getting started. Gold, another store of value asset, currently has a market cap of around $20 trillion. Bitcoin, meanwhile, still has a market cap of around $2 trillion. Long term, I expect these values to converge completely, adding credence to Wood's lofty price targets.
If you're new to Bitcoin, don't go in head over heels immediately. Try allocating just 1% of your assets to the cryptocurrency. Once a position is initiated, it will be much easier to add more over time if you choose to. But with institutional buy-in gradually increasing, retail investors have an opportunity to have a first-mover advantage in this emerging asset class.
[The Motley Fool ]
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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:15
‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’ author says Bitcoin will hit $13 million: ‘Saylor is one smart boy’
Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, backed Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin prediction on Nov. 20, 2024, claiming that Bitcoin could reach $13 million per coin.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Kiyosaki wrote, "$13 million Bitcoin:….according to Michael Saylor. I believe he is right. He is one smart boy."
He compared Bitcoin’s potential to traditional education costs, adding, "Bitcoin today is $90,000. If Saylor is on target….which I think he is…. that means for $9,000 today….you buy .01 Bitcoin today…you are a millionaire tomorrow."
His statement followed a discussion between Saylor and Patrick Bet-David, where Bet-David questioned the long-term valuation of MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy. Bet-David’s calculations suggested that if Bitcoin reaches $13 million, MicroStrategy could grow into a $10 trillion company within two decades.
Can Bitcoin realistically reach $13 million?
Saylor defended the projection, explaining the math behind it.
"Multiply 13 [million] divided by 90,000, and it gets you to a big number," he said on Nov. 19, 2024. He argued that if Bitcoin’s adoption rate increased from 0.1% today to 7% globally, demand would rise significantly, leading to a massive price surge. Given that Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, such adoption levels could drive prices into the millions per coin.
If Bitcoin reaches $13 million, owning 0.01 BTC today for $9,000 would be worth $130,000 in the future.
Bitcoin vs. an MBA: Which holds more value?
Kiyosaki also criticized student debt, arguing that investing in Bitcoin could be a smarter financial decision than taking out loans for an MBA.
"Sure beats going $50,000 in debt for a student loan…studying for years…just to earn a flimsy MBA. Get smarter…. buy Bitcoin today. I am."
Kiyosaki contrasted Bitcoin’s potential with the cost of a Master of Business Administration (MBA), arguing that investing in Bitcoin could yield far greater returns without the debt. The average cost of an MBA at a top U.S. university ranges from $50,000 to $200,000. At Harvard Business School, tuition is $84,000 per year, totaling about $168,000 for two years. Stanford’s MBA program costs $82,000 per year, with similar overall expenses. Many graduates leave school with $66,000 to $120,000 in student debt, with no guaranteed return on investment.
Kiyosaki suggested that instead of taking on massive student loans for a degree that may not lead to financial success, investing in 0.01 BTC for $9,000 today could be a smarter financial decision in the long run.
Bitcoin has already risen 87% in the past year, but reaching $13 million would require a shift in global finance. Saylor’s prediction assumes that Bitcoin will experience widespread institutional adoption, hyperinflation in fiat currencies, and increasing demand due to its scarcity.
[TheStreet]
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Sunday, 23 February 2025 15:11
Nigerians increasingly prefer foreign artisans from Congo, Togo, Benin
In Nigeria, artisans from neighboring countries like Togo, Benin Republic, and Cameroon have long been the backbone of skilled labor.
Known for their expertise in specialized trades such as tiling, plastering, carpentry,and Plaster of Paris (POP) installation, these foreign workers have been the preferred choice for individuals and builders.
However, a significant shift is taking place.
As the economy struggles, many of these artisans are leaving, creating a growing skill gap in the sector. With fewer skilled hands on-site and project delays, concerns about workmanship have become pressing issues.
A building contractor in Lagos, Johnson Odunayo, explained the preference:
“Most foreign artisans come trained from their home countries. Their work is neater, and they take their time to get the details right. They also respect timelines better than many local artisans.”
Despite their dwindling numbers due to economic challenges, industry professionals continue to seek them out, emphasizing their precision and attention to detail.
“It’s not that there are more foreign artisans than Nigerians in the industry. The difference is that the ones who are here truly know their craft. Many Nigerian artisans lack thorough training and patience, which is why they often don’t meet expectations.” said architect Olu Adegbite.
Simon Nkemakonam, an architect, disclosed to Nairametrics that many foreign artisans in Nigeria come from other countries due to the higher value of the naira compared to their local currencies.
“A lot of foreign workers came for greener pastures. They come here, make money, and return home because the Nigerian economy was better than theirs”, he said.
However, he noted that the current economic hardship in Nigeria has made it difficult to find these skilled foreign artisans as easily as before.
“We learnt these skills in Nigeria” – Congo-born artisan
Contrary to popular belief, many foreign artisans honed their craft within Nigeria’s borders. John Mensah, a Congo tiler who has worked in Enugu for over a decade, explained that his journey began by learning from his fellow countrymen who had already established themselves in the trade.
“I learnt this work in Nigeria from my brothers who were already tilers before me. We are not better because we come from Togo. The difference is that we take our time to learn properly, while most Nigerian artisans rush the process,” he said.
- John’s perspective highlights a major issue in Nigeria’s vocational sector – the lack of structured training and patience among local artisans. While foreign workers dedicate years to perfecting their skills, many Nigerian artisans opt for quick apprenticeships, often cutting corners.
Okoro Williams, a Nigerian screeding expert, believes that the issue goes beyond skill gaps, it is also a mindset problem.
“It’s a mentality issue. Nigerians generally do not value locally made products or services, no matter how much you try to convince them,” he said.
- Williams noted that Nigeria has a good number of highly skilled artisans, but due to this perception, even when Nigerian professionals are recommended for jobs, clients still opt for foreign workers.
- Sharing his personal experience, he acknowledged the skills of some Togolese screeding artisans he has worked with and learned from. However, he pointed out that while some of them are highly skilled, others lack proper expertise yet still secure jobs simply because they are perceived as better than their Nigerian counterparts.
Speaking on payments, Nkemakonam advised that it is preferable to pay foreign artisans in instalments rather than in full upfront.
“If you pay them in full, they often take the money home to their country and leave your job unfinished, only to return weeks later. To prevent this, they are paid in bits until they complete the work.”
Immigration challenges forcing artisans into hiding
Despite their contributions to Nigeria’s construction sector, foreign artisans face significant hurdles, particularly with immigration policies. Many enter the country through ECOWAS free-movement agreements, but residency renewal fees have become a persistent challenge.
“Before, we paid N5,000 yearly for our permits, but now it has increased to N20,000. This is difficult for many of us, so some workers go into hiding to avoid the payment. I pay mine, but I know others who struggle to afford it,” John disclosed.
This increase in immigration costs has forced many skilled workers to constantly have issues with immigration picking them up even while on a sit hence affecting their work.
Personal accounts of subpar workmanship
Olalekan Ogundare, a fashion designer based in Lagos, recounted his ordeal with a local plumber after moving into a new apartment.
“I got a new toilet seat, and the plumber who installed it did a poor job. Water was dripping from the connection between the WC and the pipe. He came to fix it three consecutive times, but the problem persisted,” Ogundare lamented.
Similarly, Mrs. Oyindamola shared her experience with a technician she hired to repair her front-loading washing machine.
“They always claim to be experts in their field, yet they can’t fix something properly the first time. He worked on the machine and tested it with a quick 15-minute cycle. After he left, I noticed the machine was taking in water but couldn’t drain it after a wash. I called him back; he said he would return but never did. Someone recommended another technician who discovered it was a wrong plumbing connection. He resolved it and fixed the filters,” she recounted.
Anna Njoku recalled her experience with a DStv agent who installed a satellite dish.
“I wanted a two-way connection so my son could watch from his room too. It worked for just that day. The installer said it was a wrong wire. I spent money to get the right wire, yet the same issue persisted. He came repeatedly, trying to fix it but couldn’t. I got tired and moved on. Now, my son watches only YouTube in his room,” she explained.
Discrimination in artisan skills
Nkemakonam also highlighted the discrimination in the industry stating that while more developed countries prioritize skill acquisition over certificates, the reverse is the case in Nigeria.
“In Nigeria, lucrative jobs are given to degree holders with little or no hands-on experience, while skilled artisans are sidelined,” he said.
- He further lamented the inadequate number of technical schools in the country, despite the growing need for skilled workers.
- The architect also pointed to the increasing number of poorly built structures across the country, blaming it on the lack of practical skills among those in charge.
- Recalling an incident at a construction site, he explained that an iron bender was absent, leaving the degree-holding supervisors unable to manage the work properly.
“When the main bosses arrived, they questioned the supervisors, but they couldn’t even tell the difference between a 5mm and a 16mm rod. Yet, these supervisors are paid more than the iron benders and are assigned to oversee their work,” he said.
He noted that many artisans gain expertise through years of hands-on experience, even without formal education, emphasizing the need for a balance between technical education and practical skills in the industry.
Technical education reform
Amid these concerns, the Nigerian government has taken steps to strengthen technical education.
Minister of Education, Dr. Moruf Olatunji Alausa, recently announced the conversion of Yaba College of Technology (YABATECH) into a university as part of a broader push to prioritize Technical and Vocational Education (TVE) and Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics, and Medical Sciences (STEMM).
“Nigeria’s economic future depends on building a skilled workforce in these critical fields,” Alausa stated, emphasizing the need to move away from the traditional focus on white-collar jobs.
- He also proposed expanding technical courses, launching online training programs with international certifications, and promoting skills in emerging fields like AI and machine learning.
- However, the move to convert polytechnics into universities has sparked opposition from the National Association of Polytechnic Students (NAPS). The association’s president, Eshiofune Oghayan, warned that such changes could undermine the hands-on, industry-focused training that polytechnics provide.
“We reject the proposed conversion of YABATECH into a university. Polytechnic institutions play a crucial role in bridging the gap between theoretical knowledge and industrial application,” Oghayan stated.
Instead, NAPS is advocating for a structured system that strengthens polytechnic education rather than phasing it out.
Need for regulation in Nigeria’s artisan sector
In an interview with Nairametrics, Dr. Paul Alaje, an Economist, explained that one of the key issues affecting the artisan industry is the absence of a structured regulatory framework.
“The artisan industry operates without any structured oversight. If there were a regulatory system in place or even a middleman to ensure accountability, it would function more efficiently,” he said.
Dr. Paul suggested that while the government may not take direct control, state governments could collaborate with the private sector to establish a framework that ensures better organization and oversight.
He further emphasized the economic significance of the artisan sector, stating, “The artisan industry is actually larger than the entire banking sector, yet its contributions are not properly accounted for in economic indicators like GDP.”
Rise in labour cost
Dr. Paul further explained that the lack of a properly developed skillset in the artisan sector has contributed to rising labor costs.
“This gap in skilled labor makes services more expensive,” he said, citing examples of Lebanese workers who come to Nigeria and charge exorbitant fees for their expertise.
According to him, if Nigeria had a well-structured system for training and certifying artisans, it would reduce reliance on foreign labor and make skilled services more affordable.
He concluded that recognizing and integrating the sector into economic planning could bring significant benefits, including improved working conditions, better pay structures, and increased contributions to the national economy.
Prioritizing technical education, and regulating the artisan industry, could help address these challenges, ultimately driving economic growth and reducing unemployment.
[Nairametrics]
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