• Uzodinma announces Idahosa; Okpebholo declared winner at Ize-Iyamu’s residence
• I’m the authentic winner, says Agba •Only Uzodinma-led committee can announce results – Morka

Confusion erupted yesterday in the Edo State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) following the declaration of House of Representatives member Dennis Idahosa as winner of the party’s governorship primary.

Chairman of the Primary Election Committee and Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, declared Idahosa winner at Protea Hotel, Government Reservation Area (GRA), Benin at the end of the collation of results from the 18 local government areas of the state.

The result was however disputed by Senator Monday Okpebholo (Edo Central) and the immediate past Minister of State for Budget and National Planning, Prince Clem Agba, both of who said they won the primary election.

Idahosa, who currently represents Ovia constituency in the Green Chamber of the National Assembly, was credited with 40,453 votes.

Senator Monday Okpebholo had 100 votes.

Details of the result as announced by Uzodimma are as follows: Blessing Agbomhere – 50 votes, Maj.Gen. Charles Airhiavbere (rtd.) – 162; Prof. Oserheimen Osunbor – 180; Col. David Imuse (rtd.) – 400;  Dr. Ernest Afolabi Umakhihe – 02; Gideon Ikhine – 700; Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu – 02; Anamero Dekeri – 230; Prince Clem Agba – 100 and Chief Lucky Imasuen – 02.

Uzodimma described the primary conducted by his committee as the authentic one.

He said it was peaceful in the state’s 192 wards.

However, armed thugs invaded Lushville Hotel and Suites, Gapiona Avenue, GRA, Benin, the initial collation centre at about 2.52 pm, sparking pandemonium.

The collation officers were on break when the thugs struck.

The State Collation Officer, Dr. Stanley Ughoajah, halted the live transmission of the proceeding by some national television stations.

Okpekholo, at the time of the invasion, was leading Idahosa in six of the 18 local government areas already collated.

Okpekholo was ahead in Ikpoba/Okha, Esan Southeast, Oredo, Esan West, Owan West and Esan Central, while Idahosa led in Akoko-Edo LGA and his Ovia Southwest LGA.

Journalists who had gathered to cover the process were injured and their equipment destroyed.

Party officials and other stakeholders were similarly attacked and the highbrow hotel’s facilities damaged.

The many policemen and other security operatives at the venue appeared overwhelmed by the turn of events.

Officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) were present at both collation centres.

As Uzodimma was rounding off the declaration of the results, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, who had withdrawn from the race on Friday, invited reporters to his residence in GRA, Benin, where Okpebholo was declared winner of the parallel election by Dr. Stanley Ugboajah, the Collation Officer.

Okpebholo, according to Ugboajah, received 12,145 votes and Idahosa 5,536 votes.

Signs of trouble had emerged earlier in the day when two more aspirants joined Ize-Iyamu in withdrawing from the primary election.

First to throw in the towel yesterday was a former deputy governor of the state, Chief Lucky Imasuen and later Dr. Ernest  Umakhihe.

Imasuen in a letter addressed to his supporters said his decision to withdraw was in “the interest of peace and unity of our great party,” and because “members of our National Working Committee (NWC), in their wisdom, have expressed their preference for zoning the governorship position to Edo Central Senatorial District.”

He pledged to support “whoever emerges as our candidate in the primary election.”

Soon after pulling out of the race, Umakhihe declared support for “the choice of the party,” Idahosa.

Umakhihe, a retired federal permanent secretary, Edo North Senatorial District, said: “It has been a worthwhile journey of our resolve to make a difference in the affairs of our dear Edo State. However, following my latest interaction with the party’s leadership, I will not be contesting the primaries.

“Let us give our support to Hon. Dennis Idahosa, who is the choice of the party. There are greater days ahead.”

Agba: Based on the authentic turnout, we clinched victory

Agba, who also laid claim to victory, thanked his supporters for their “loyalty and support for my candidature.”

He said: “To my good people of Edo State and esteemed members of our great party, the All Progressives Congress, I want to thank you for your loyalty and support for my candidature.

“Unfortunately, what we have all witnessed in the APC party primaries in Edo State on Saturday February 17th, 2024 falls below the minimum standard of democratic elections that is universally acceptable.

“I believe strongly that thousands of loyal party members were disenfrachished. Based on the authentic turnout, we clinched victory.

“The result so far announced is a ridicule and undermines the principles of democracy and fair play. The votes of the people did not count, the processes of election were compromised and the strength and unity of our party greatly undermined.

“While I remain a loyal party member, I will not be part of a process that robs the mass of our loyal party members of their inalienable right to vote.

“What has taken place in Edo State negates all that even our political leaders have taught us over the years about democracy, the will of the people, one man, one vote and justice and fair play.

“We must come together to challenge this great injustice and restore the integrity and strength of our great party.

“Such impunity that the people have been subjected to should have no place in our great party.

“We will proceed speedily within the guidelines laid down by our party to seek for justice.

“I want to thank everyone that has supported me for your unwavering commitment and belief in our vision and qualification. Your passion and dedication have been the driving force behind our campaign, and I am truly grateful.

“As we move forward, remember that our journey is far from over. We will continue to fight for a better future for Edo State, a future where every citizen can thrive and succeed.

“Our resolve is unbreakable, and our commitment unwavering. We will not rest until justice is served and the people’s will is honoured.

“Thank you, and let us march forward with courage and conviction.”

Edo will vote massively for me, says Idahosa

Idahosa, who was accompanied by his wife, Osaretin, in his acceptance speech at Protea Hotel, Benin, expressed gratitude to  President Bola Tinubu and “my leader, Senator Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole” and the people, especially his constituents in  for “giving me the mandate in 2019 and 2023, which gave me the opportunity to shine in the National Assembly. “

Continuing, he said:”There is no Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Edo State. The September 21, 2024 governorship election will be between APC and Labour Party (LP).

“In LP, 80 per cent of the members will align with the younger generation. Obedient Movement is between the age bracket of 18 and 45. I happen to be in that constituency (age bracket). Edo residents will massively vote for me.”

Only Uzodinma can announce primary result – APC

The APC urged party members and the public to disregard unofficial results for the Edo State governorship primary.

The party maintained that only the Governor Hope Uzodinma-led Primary Election Committee is authorised to undertake final collation and announce the final results.

National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, in a statement on Saturday dissociated the party from a live broadcast on national television and online platforms announcing results.

The statement reads: “The attention of the National Working Committee of our great Party has been drawn to a live broadcast on major national television stations and online news outlets of results of the ongoing Edo State APC Governorship Primary Election by some unauthorized persons

“We wish to state categorically that only the Governor Hope Uzodinma-led Edo State APC Governorship Primary Election Committee is duly authorised to undertake the final collation and announcement of results of the Primary Election in the State.

“We urge all Party members, officials in the State, and the general public to disregard the said announcement of results by these unauthorized persons.”  

[TheNation]

Indications have emerged that the organised labour is prepared to lower its demand for N1m minimum wage for workers in the country in line with realities on the ground. The shift in position will likely be communicated to the Federal Government during the second meeting of the tripartite committee on the minimum wage on Monday and Tuesday.

Sunday PUNCH gathered that the meeting would enhance deliberations between all parties involved in negotiations to allow for the announcement of a new minimum wage on or before April 1 following the expiration of the current N30,000 minimum wage as provided by the law.

President Bola Tinubu, through his deputy, Kashim Shettima, had on January 30, 2024, inaugurated a 37-member panel on the new minimum wage at the Council Chamber of the State House in Abuja.

With its membership cutting across the federal and state governments, the private sector, and organised labour, the panel is to recommend a new national minimum wage for the country.

In his opening address at the inauguration, Shettima urged members to “speedily” arrive at a resolution and submit a report early as the current N30,000 minimum wage expires at the end of next month.

“The timely submission (of the report) is crucial to ensure the emergence of a new minimum wage,” Shettima said.

He also urged good faith in collective bargaining, emphasising contract adherence and encouraging consultations outside the committee.

In May 2017, the House of Representatives moved to amend the National Minimum Wage Act for a compulsory review of workers’ remuneration every five years.

The Minimum Wage Act of 2019 signed by former President Muhammadu Buhari empowers the committee to deliberate and come up with an agreed wage, which will be eventually ratified by the National Assembly after due legislative scrutiny.

Buhari had also signed the Minimum Wage Act that approved N30,000 for both federal and state workers in the same year.

However, President Bola Tinubu announced the discontinuance of fuel subsidy on May 29, 2023, which triggered a sharp rise in the general cost of living.

Although the administration approved an additional N35,000 wage award for six months starting from September 2023 to alleviate the impact of the subsidy removal, the organised labour maintained that this was only a provisional solution and called for a complete review of the minimum wage.

Chairing the panel is a former Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, Bukar Aji, who at the inauguration affirmed that its members would come up with a “fair, practical, implementable and sustainable” minimum wage.

The inauguration of the committee follows months of agitation from the organised labour, which expressed concerns over the Federal Government’s failure to inaugurate the new national minimum wage committee as promised during negotiations last October.

On the government’s side, members include the Minister of State, Labour and Employment, Nkeiruka Onyejeocha, representing the Minister of Labour and Employment; Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, who was represented by the ministry’s Permanent Secretary, Mrs Lydia Jafiya.

Others are the Minister of Budget Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu; Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, Dr Yemi Esan; Permanent Secretary, GSO OSGF, Dr Nnamdi Mbaeri; and Chairman/CEO, NSIWC – member/Secretary, Ekpo Nta.

Representing the Nigerian Governors’ Forum are Mohammed Bago of Niger State (North-Central); Senator Bala Mohammed, Bauchi State (North-East); Umar Dikko Radda, Katsina State, (North-West); Prof Chukwuma Soludo, Anambra State (South-East); Senator Ademola Adeleke, Osun State (South-West); and Otu Bassey, Cross River State (South-South).

From the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, Director-General, NECA; Mr Chuma Nwankwo and Mr Thompson Akpabio; representing the Nigeria Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture are Asiwaju Michael Olawale-Cole, National President; Ahmed Rabiu, National Vice-President; and Chief Humphrey Ngonadi, National Life President.

Representatives of the National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises are Dr Abdulrashid Yerima, President and Chairman of Council; Theophilus Okwuchukwu, private sector representative; Dr Muhammed Nura Bello, Zonal Vice-President, North-West; and also from the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria are Mrs Grace Omo-Lamai, Human Resource Director, Nigerian Breweries; Segun Ajayi-Kadir, Director-General, MAN; Lady Ada Chukwudozie, Managing Director, Dozzy Oil and Gas Limited.

From the organised labour are Joe Ajaero, President, Nigeria Labour Congress; Emmanuel Ugboaja; Prince Adeyanju Adewale; Ambali Akeem; Benjamin Anthony and Prof Theophilus Ndukuba.

From the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria are Festus Osifo, President, TUC; Tommy Etim Okon, Deputy President I; Kayode Surajudeen Alakija, Deputy President II; Jimoh Oyibo, Deputy President III; Nuhu Toro, Secretary-General; and Hafusatu Shuaib, Chairperson Women Comm.

Speaking with our correspondent on the deliberations of the committee following the announcement by the President of the NLC, Joe Ajaero, that rising inflation in the country might push the organised labour to demand N1m as minimum wage, a representative of the NLC, who is also a member of the committee, Akeem Ambali, said one of the principles of collective bargaining allowed all parties to look into all factors before an amount would be agreed on.

“The principle of collective bargaining allows compromise once the parties look at all factors to ensure an agreeable amount is reached,” he stated.

Speaking on the next sitting of the committee, Ambali said, “The second meeting of the minimum wage committee has been slated for Monday and Tuesday.

“On the timeline of March for the expiration of the current minimum wage, we hope that the committee, the Presidency, and the National Assembly will expedite action to ensure that the new Minimum Wage Act would have come to replace the old one by April 1, 2024.”

Ambali also expressed shock at the N500m approved by the President for the committee.

A leaked memo had disclosed the request for N1.8bn for the inauguration of the committee. The memo, signed by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, and dated January 18, 2024, was addressed to President Bola Tinubu.

It underscored the committee’s need for substantial funds to kick-start its operations. The document sought approval for the release of N1bn, with the inauguration set for January 26, 2024. The memo also emphasized the legal requirement to establish a new minimum wage by April 1, 2023.

President Tinubu, in response to the memo, approved N500m for the committee’s inauguration, while acknowledging the importance of the committee’s work, and also highlighted the necessity of efficient resource management.

Commenting on the amount, Ambali said, “On the purported allocation of funds to the committee, it is unbelievable because we were never informed or given a kobo. We will unravel the fact behind this soon.”

The Deputy President of the Trade Union Congress, Tommy Etim, who also confirmed Monday and Tuesday’s meeting of the committee, stated that the N1m proposed minimum wage was reflective of the country’s economic realities.

He said it was unfortunate that a Nigerian worker was not earning up to N1m monthly but members of the National Assembly were being paid humongous amounts and acquiring luxury vehicles at the nation’s expense.

“How many months did those in the National Assembly put in that each of them is going home with huge amounts and they have vehicles worth N250m each?” he queried.

Etim told Sunday PUNCH that with the removal of the fuel subsidy, the cost of living had increased, causing the workers to lose hope.

The TUC deputy president added, “How much is for accommodation now? How much is food? By right, civil servants on Level 17 are supposed to be entitled to a two-bedroom flat. Now, a two-bedroom flat costs about N3.5m to rent in Abuja.

“Have you looked at the cost of cement and building materials now? Have you taken time to look at the cost of transportation? So, if you think that the workers cannot earn N1 m, and politicians are earning N3.5m in a month; who is fooling who?

“If the government cannot pay the N1m minimum wage; what the NLC has put forward is a proposal to let them come out to say what they can pay and let it be justifiable in line with the cost of living.”

Etim noted, “If insecurity does not allow people to go to the farm, what will they eat? It is like what the Bible describes as ‘to eat and die’. Have you taken time to look at the cost of a loaf of bread?

“Is it not because of the increase in the cost of bread that led to the revolution in Sudan in 1980? So, if Nigerians have been patient with the government, they need to pay.”

On food hoarding, he said, “If you have the advantage of having food, do not hoard it. Hunger does not recognise food hoarding, and it can turn into a crisis. Hoarding of food is a recipe for revolution.

 “My advice is that those in privileged positions to have food should release it to those who need it rather than hoarding it. If you continue hoarding it, it is going to spoil.

“There is hunger in the country and the President is aware of it. That is why he had a meeting with the governors to let them know there is hunger in the country, so that they will release money and pay the necessary salaries they are supposed to pay, and should let people have access to money to reduce poverty.”

‘FG will consult’

Reacting to the N1m minimum wage demand by the organised labour, the Federal Government said it would prefer to wait for the final decision of the 37-man committee.

The Minister of Information, Idris Mohammed, told one of our correspondents that the government would take a reasonable position that would take account of the interest of the people after due consideration of Nigeria’s resources and other factors.

“It (N1m demand) is a proposal but the Federal Government will not pre-empt the work of the 37-man committee that includes labour itself. The government will do what is right in the interest of the nation as a whole, taking into account our resources and other factors.”

On whether the payment of N1m is sustainable by both federal and state governments in the face of the rising inflation, the minister said he would “leave Nigerians to imagine that.”

‘Tread with caution’

A developmental economist and financial expert, Dr Segun Ajayi, said the Federal Government must tread with caution in negotiating with the TUC and the NLC over their demands.

“N1m in this economy is not a lot of money, but the problem is that I am sure the government will say they cannot afford it. From the current economic realities, it is also obvious that the government cannot pay workers N1m as minimum wage. But, in negotiations, it is a good point to always start big. So, by the time it is beaten down and subtractions are made, the workers would have something substantial to bank on,” he said.

Another senior economist, Dr Ade Dayo, said, “The government and the Organised Labour must be reasonable. Nigeria cannot afford to enter into a recession. The country can also not afford another industrial action. The economy is at its lowest ebb. We have never had it this bad in more than 20 years.

“It is true that the N30,000 minimum wage is too meagre to take any worker through the month. The government must understand that. Labour, too, must also understand what the government can afford at this time. But, I believe that everything will melt at the negotiation table; compromises will be made and things will be fixed amicably.”

Also commenting, a senior lecturer at the Department of Political Science, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Anambra State, Dr Ugwueze Emmanuel, said the government should consider the plight of Nigerian workers and respond speedily to their requests to increase the minimum wage to “something reasonable.”

He stated that N1m was not too much to ask for, adding that some politicians with little or no qualifications “earn much higher while doing so little.”

“The government people should not act like they are not in the country. How can a worker take home N30,000 as a monthly salary in this economy? How much is bread? How much is garri or rice? The government must also learn to see things from the lenses of the people,” he added.

Former Senate Leader and ex-Board Chairman of Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Senator Victor Ndoma-Egba (SAN), has said that shifting from a presidential to a parliamentary system of government will be a difficult task to achieve.

Ndoma-Egba, a lawyer and politician, made the submission while reacting to the call for a change to the parliamentary system from the present presidential method of government in Nigeria by some lawmakers via a bill.

The bill seeking a return to the parliamentary system captioned: ‘The Bills Proposing Constitutional Alterations For a Transition To Parliamentary System of Government,’ was sponsored by the House Minority Leader, Hon Kingsley Chinda, and 59 others.

Expressing his view on the issue, the erstwhile Senate Leader, said: “That is a call for a fundamental restructuring of the country from a presidential system of government back to a parliamentary system that we had practised up to the first military coup of January 15, 1966. To achieve this you will need at the very least, a constitutional amendment that will come with many accompanying consequential amendments that will amount to almost a new constitution.

“The major arguments against the presidential system have been the concentration of executive powers in chief executives, that is the president or governors to the point of making them constitutional dictators, and the cost of the system.

“Recall however that the country started off with the parliamentary system. Why was it ditched? What were the arguments against it? We need to as of today compare the comparative economics and advantages of both systems. But certainly, it will be a change that will not be easy to come by.”

The ex-parliamentarian further noted that “Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages but the attraction of the presidential system in our situation is the stability it gives and the authority it confers on the elected chief executives who are elected directly by the people and for fixed terms, unlike the parliamentary system that is controlled by parliament.”

“Love and business and family and religion and art and patriotism are nothing but shadows of words when a man is starving” – O’Henry, 1862-1910.

About two weeks ago, your Vice President called Nigerians, who registered their displeasure about the continuing devaluation of the Naira, “clowns” for not supporting the government now when things are tough. Shettima has forgotten that he begged for the job. If he can’t stand the heat, he should resign. But, he cannot be insulting his employers. He was joined by one Felix Morka, the National Publicity Secretary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who apparently has no relatives, friend or town’s men feeling the pain of hunger. The two, like all the “Yes-men and women” of your administration, are leading your government down the path which destroyed Buhari and others before you.

 Every President sooner or later becomes a prisoner of his Aso Rock staff. They shield you from the harsh truth of human existence. Invite Buhari and Jonathan and ask them if there were truths they wished were brought to their attention while in office; and you will be surprised what the answers will be. For instance, it is doubtful if Buhari would have condoned the scam involved in feeding school children, with N53 billion, during COVID-19 lockdown. The report submitted to him would have been made deliberately misleading for the embezzlement to escape his attention. Grand larceny would have been reported as a wonderful achievement by his government. You already run the same risk. Here is why.

On December 30, 2023, in our SATURDAY VANGUARD, I got an article published titled NIGERIA 2024: SLIDING FURTHER INTO CHAOS. I summarised the year as follows: “2024 in Nigeria will be characterised by three words – scarcity, failure and chaos.” Scarcity of cash and foreign exchange now lead the parade of other scarcities. Go to any market – open market for the masses or supermarkets for the rich – and you will be surprised how scarce items we once took for granted have become.

Scarcity inevitably promotes price increase; and the less the supply, the higher prices go up. That is why food inflation is now over 30 per cent and will most probably go higher rather than lower. Granted, you have recently instructed that 100,000 tonnes of food be released from the Nation’s Food Reserves to ease the pressure on prices. But, I am afraid that gesture will not solve the problem of food scarcity for reasons which might have escaped your attention. Let me remind you.

WE’LL OPEN RESERVES TO ADDRESS FOOD COSTS – FG

“Now some of these will involve unlocking the foods that are available in most of the storage facilities (National Food Reserve) around the country. You know the Ministry of Agriculture has some food reserves. They are going to be made available to Nigerians” – Mohammed Idris, Minister of Information and Orientation, after a meeting of the Special Presidential Committee in Emergency Food Intervention, February 8, 2024. From my experience of over thirty years, one of the most pathetic things observed has been how relatively respectable media persons get appointed as government spokesmen; and they lose their reputations.

It is almost impossible for anybody to be in that position, in times of serious crisis, without purveying falsehood in order to stay employed in high office. Idris, therefore, has my sympathies. But, that is all he would receive from me. To be candid, his pronouncement is pure drivel. A day later, the nation was told that Tinubu has ordered the release of 100, 000 tonnes of assorted food items – rice, wheat, cassava, maize. Politely, I will describe that intervention as pissing in the ocean at low tide. That quantity of food cannot feed Lagos State for a month. Then what follows? I will explain later why the 100, 000 tonnes of grain ordered released is more political swindle than solution to the food scarcity problem. To be honest, this government needs to become more serious before Nigeria goes the way of Sudan.

Perhaps the FG needs to be reminded that the palliatives offered in the third quarter of last year by the National Economic Council, NEC, included releasing food from the National Reserves to the states. Till today, most states have not received the supplies promised. From where will the FG obtain the additional 100, 000 tonnes to be released? I pity Idris; I pity Tinubu even more. It took most of us about two years before realising that Buhari was a veritable danger to Nigeria; that he was unreliable. Because Tinubu is a minority President, there has been no honeymoon; and he got himself into trouble by frequently talking first and thinking later. This measure will get us nowhere.

FAILED PROMISES GALORE

Politicians’ promises almost always count for very little under normal circumstances.  In a crisis, they count for nothing. Thus, when Tinubu announced simultaneously subsidy removal and exchange rate harmonisation, without consideration of the repercussions, it was an invitation to monumental economic and social crises for which his government and Nigerians were not prepared. Negative reactions spontaneously erupted. Panic set in.

The National Economic Council, NEC, which should have been consulted before the announcement, was summoned to help find solutions. Palliatives were rolled out. Among them were the release of grains from the National Food Reserves, reduction of the exchange rate below N1000/$1, payment of N35,000 allowance to workers, fuel supply from Dangote and Port-Harcourt Refineries and the roll-out of gas operated busses. Till today, none of the major promises have been fulfilled. It has been failure all around.

Failure of the FG to redeem its pledges are among the reasons why the Nigerian Labour Congress, NLC, and other  affiliates are now threatening to embark on a nationwide strike and why food protests are multiplying. I am not surprised about these developments. Nigerians were warned before that the Tinubu government would have very little to offer us this year; that scarcity of a lot of things is inevitable. Has the reader noticed how the CBN and FG have ignored the cash scarcity problem?

It is because they have no clue on how to solve the problem. Yet, not finding a solution to it has condemned millions of mini-enterprises to liquidation; and millions, previously employed to joblessness. Unknown to Tinubu, a spiral of misery has gradually developed. Cash scarcity reduces demand for some basic commodities; transporters bring less; prices escalate on account of reduced supply and demand plummets even further – ad infinitum.  The logical consequences are already unfolding.

CHAOS OF GOVERNANCE

“The chaos keeps on getting worse in spite of everything they do to improve discipline and morale” – Boris Pasternak, 1890-1960, in DOCTOR ZHIVAGO

Pasternak’s classic about the Russian Revolution taught us a lot about how chaotic revolutionary changes can be – if not well-managed. The book, by that title, which eventually became an award-winning film, was mostly responsible for Pasternak winning the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1958. Tinubu might be well-advised to get that film to be shown at a retreat for his Ministers, advisers and ‘Lagos Boys’. Tinubu might not realise it, but, those two primary policy changes – subsidy removal and exchange rate liberalisation – were as revolutionary as some aspects of the Communist Revolution in Russia in 1905.

Together, they effectively removed the advantages enjoyed by those who lived on Nigeria’s illness. They threatened the current powerful; who routinely collected billions of dollars at favourable exchange rates; sold them at black market rates and re-cycled the proceeds. Believe me; they will not surrender power easily. Partisan politics, ethnicity and religion have very little to do with it. It is group interest that is at stake. The political class is one group.

That was why members of the National Assembly, NASS, support the extra-ordinary remuneration package they receive – irrespective of party to which they belong. For instance, most of them were enjoying special exchange rates under Buhari; so they had no reason to press for unified exchange rate. The mega economic class is another group. If the original report of the Special Investigator is ever released for public scrutiny, Nigerians will discover that the same people manipulating prices at the Nigerian Stock Exchange are the suspects under interrogation. This is not the time to name anyone.

 Unfortunately, pervasive scarcity of cash, dollars and food are driving the masses to the streets. Governors are panicking and taking the law into their hands. Here are a few examples. A court just ordered Tinubu to fix the price of petrol, diesel and a few items. Why not everything including maximum SANs can charge clients?  Niger State Governor bans wholesale food sales and wants to stop food sales to neighbouring states.

Kano State empowers a Price Control Unit to force open warehouses where food stuffs are stored, accuse the owners of hoarding and confiscate the products found. Yobe State is also restricting sale of foods produced in the state to other states. Interestingly, neither Niger nor Yobe is stopping food stuff from other states from coming in. Kano State government cannot distinguish between temporary storage for future use, e.g. wheat by Flour Mills and hoarding. State approved burglary is here. Anarchy is here.

A HONEST POLITICIAN AT LAST

An honest politician is almost impossible to find. Here is one – at last.

Hardship: Dishonest for APC to blame opposition for protests – ex-Vice Chair, Lukman Salihu. ‘Tinubu’s renewed hope turning to renewed anger’

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has established a task force to tackle illegal forex trading and naira abuse.

The commission is combating illegal forex trading against the backdrop of the continued depreciation of the naira against the US dollar.

According to data from the financial market infrastructure group warehousing, also known as FMDQ, the naira depreciated to N1,537.96 per US dollar on Friday from N1,498.25 on Thursday.

Recall that the EFCC had arrested several suspects in the past in connection with illegal forex trading and abuse of the naira notes in public functions.

In December 2022, operatives of the commission arrested 87 forex dealers in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Lagos and Kano.

Findings revealed that the EFCC detectives ransacked the forex dealers’ vaults for stashed dollars and naira.

Also, the anti-graft agency in February, secured the conviction and sentencing of a Nigerian actress, Oluwadarasimi Omoseyin, to six months imprisonment for spraying and stepping on Naira notes.

Delivering judgment, Justice Aneke sentenced her for the offence with an option of N300,000 fine to be paid into the consolidated revenue account of the federation.

Reiterating its effort to combat the crimes, the EFCC in a notice posted on its Facebook page on Saturday, enjoined the public to report people engaging in illegal forex trading and naira mutilation.

“If you have information on the misuse of the Naira and illegal trading in FOREX, call the EFCC’s Taskforce on any of these toll-free numbers: 09135003322 and 0912887608.”

Meamwhile, the Olu of Owode in Obafemi/Owode Local Government of Ogun State, Oba Kolawole Sowemimo, on Saturday morning confirmed his suspension for two months and without salaries by the Egba Traditional Council over alleged abuse of Nigerian naira notes.

Speaking with our one of our correspondent, Oba Sowemimo said, “The suspension was announced during our meeting yesterday (Friday), they said the suspension was due to the way I spent money on one muscian.

“When I was asked if I have anything to say, I stood up and apologized for whatever I have done wrong and the suspension which was earlier announced to be for three months without salaries was reduced to two months. I totally accept the verdict of the council because it is the person that we love that we chatise, so I am good with the decision”.

A viral video early January had shown the royal father’s lack of respect for the naira where he was seen decorating the popular Fuji musician, Wasiu Ayinde with knitted new notes of N1000 which was used as a garlands to decorate the musician.

The council had moved against Oba Sowemimo for publicly degrading Nigerian currency, an offence which contravenes law of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

In 1993, Nigeria conducted a presidential election that the world hailed as the best in the nation’s history. If 31years later, the famous June 12, 1993 election remains the nation’s best, it means Nigeria is yet to make any electoral or political progress in 3 full decades.  Of course, there have been several processes and procedures introduced by the successive electoral bodies; indeed, the Electoral Act has been subjected to annual amendments, but there has been no substantial departure from the verdict of poor elections in the country. 

The problem is not difficult to imagine; the political class has refused to mature, with its members working assiduously to prevent election officials including judges and law enforcement agents from doing a good job. It is either they are using their privileged position to break rules without consequences or making sure they sabotage the autonomy of the otherwise independent election management boards. Put differently, Nigeria’s political class is yet to mature.

Hopes that the situation might improve are now deem following reports on the on-going arrangements for the next seasonal election – the Edo governorship contest of 2024. Ordinarily, apart from the nearness of the Edo contest as a reference point, Edo, which correctly calls itself the ‘heart-beat of the nation’ is traditionally a good barometer for measuring Nigeria’s politics. Students of history would remember that Edo and Delta which used to be known as Bendel state had made up the old Midwest region noted for its moderating role that ensured the existence of ‘One Nigeria’ amidst other groups clamouring to breakaway. A reading of happenings in Edo, is therefore a fair representation of the Nigerian situation. If politics in Edo is shown to be business as usual, it amounts to self-denial for anyone to seek to exempt any Nigerian community from the subsisting traits of political immaturity visibly observable from current political happenings.   

Three major political parties appear ready to lock horns in the Edo contest. These are, the All Progressive Congress APC, the People’s Democratic Party PDP and the Labour Party LP. Only yesterday, within the direct primary election to pick a flagbearer for the APC, complaints and allegations of imposition rented the air. In the PDP, which is the ruling party in the state, 8 out of the 10 aspirants have continued to protest the handling of the delegates congress held to elect 3 ad hoc members per ward. In the Labour Party LP, the aspirants have reduced drastically not only because of the high nomination fees charged by the party but also because of reported manipulation of the guidelines for the party primaries. But why is it so difficult for political parties in Nigeria to organize hitch-free party primaries? The answer is that Nigerian politicians are not democratic by nature and as such their political parties are incapable of embracing internal democracy within their own activities because no entity can give what it does not have.  

However, there are two reasons why some analysts assumed that Edo politicians would probably lead the way to Nigeria’s political maturity. First, tribe and ethnic bitterness are not likely to be as intense in Edo state as they are in some other states. The component parts of Edo state are made up of indigenes who trace their ancestry to one source making it obvious that Edo people are one with several historical stories of how they are all brothers and sisters. To that extent, one does not expect excessive ethnic voting. Second, for the first time in recent history political aspirants to this year’s governorship poll is filled with outstanding citizens unlike in the past when parties presented unqualified people which they sought to impose on the people. In other words, Edo state has moved away from the old order where everyone saw election as a dirty and violent game. It was therefore expected that the arena would be sane enough for the people to begin to rely on some degree of personal track record to make their choices.

The contestants are without doubt outstanding figures in their own rights. There are at least four prominent members of the legal profession who by virtue of their learned status can show Edo the right way to go. There is Kenneth Imasuagbon, Asue Ighodalo and Omosede Igbinedion. In fact, Olumide Akpata, immediate past president of the Nigerian Bar Association is also in the race.  Dennis Idahosa, a serving member of the House of Representatives is in the crowd with many other former federal legislators such as Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama, Philip Shaibu, Omosede Igbinedion and indeed, a serving senator, Monday Okpebholo. Ex-governor Oserheimen Osunbor and his former deputy, Lucky Imasuen are also listed along with former Budget Minister, Clement Agba and Ex-APC state chairman, Retired Colonel David Imuse. General Charles Airhavbere another retired military chief is also a contestant. While other no less prominent aspirants are not listed here for want of space, what is obvious is that Edo people have enough outstanding people to choose from.

It is not that no great personalities showed interest in politics in the past, this is obviously the first time the state is recording a very large number. The few that came out in the past were usually schemed out. This time around no one is sure of what will happen. Will the choice of voters either at the primaries or during the election proper prevail? This is a difficult question because reports from the field are revealing the old godfatherism tactics in which the powers that be in the political parties usually coerce certain candidates to withdraw for aspirants who are not necessarily stronger ones. Bearing in mind that none of the parties recorded more than 30 aspirants, why can’t party leaders allow their members to determine the best instead of thwarting the ambition of some? If there are certain special cases where the principle of affirmative action may be useful, why can’t such conditions be front-loaded well before the contest begins?

Instead, political leaders in Nigeria relish the trend of shifting the goal-post in the middle of play? The APC for example started with no zoning, arguing that it was unnecessary. It looked like a strong point until the need to give advantage to a zone with no governor in the recent past suddenly surfaced. Why didn’t the process start with that? Unfortunately, the argument sells the point that elected governors cannot be trusted to keep their oath of office  to solemnly serve as statesmen who should impartially belong to all. The same is true of the clamour for ‘home-boy’ in a state which every contestant belongs to as of right. Perhaps the most difficult challenge to the attainment of political maturity is the idea of ruling parties refusing to allow a level-playing field for all candidates to sell their election promises to all and sundry using state facilities like public media, stadium etc.

During campaigns, all contestants must embrace the culture of respect in political discourse. Instead of intemperate language, it is better to be civil at all times. Certain persons who are focusing on fake research findings to diminish the size of the majority should desist from testing the resolve of Edo south.  Some progress has been made in the last 8 years in the application of technology in the state. Governor Godwin Obaseki has won some awards from stringent groups like the Nigerian Union of Teachers. Unlike other states that could not pay the minimum wage, Edo has maintained a higher minimum. Those who are not satisfied with Obaseki’s performance are entitled to their viewpoint but a better way to attain political maturity is for them to refrain from attacks while canvassing how they intend to do better if elected.

Edo, being a state made up of one people should elect the best candidate to the office of governor. Such a governor should avoid the old self-seeking game of his party members struggling to be the only persons eligible to serve. While there is nothing wrong in appointing party members into government to help facilitate huge project implementation, the choice of party members should be additional to their having been found capable by their individual track-records. Government should no longer be job for the boys if we are to attain political maturity – a trend where Edo can easily take the lead.

Nigeria’s litany of troubles has finally anchored on two basic existential matters. Insecurity and hunger. We are all very unsafe and now the vast majority of our people are very hungry and angry. Of the two urgencies, the rise of mass hunger is indeed a novel addition to our familiar tale of serial calamities. Mass hunger and the anger and protests it can breed is a clear and urgent threat to our national security.

The signs are already everywhere. Mass protests have held dress rehearsals in places as far flung as Minna, Kano, Suleja, Osogbo, Abeokuta and other isolated pockets around the country. The intensity of the protests has been somewhat tepid and mellow but the message is clear and unmistakable. The population of hungry Nigerians is building up into a critical mass that can make us all uncomfortable. The fear is now palpable that if the scourge of hunger is allowed to spread with the attendant protests, the business of governing Nigeria could turn into a nationwide crowd control and mob anger management operation.

The danger in these hunger protests is in the very nature of hunger itself. Hunger is indeed an unfamiliar addition to our familiar cocktail of Nigeria’s usual calamities. Hunger in the sense of absolute lack of food of any kind in addition to the lack of the money to buy what is available and necessary, has not quite been the Nigerian thing. The poor may not feast on delicacies every day but they have always managed to find the bowl of eba, fufu, tuwo and basic grains to fill the stomach and resume praying for tomorrow as a better day.  Never before has plain simple hunger been the lot of so many Nigerians at once. But we are in a new and different place. Democracy has yielded us the unexpected dividend of universal poverty and the reality of mass starvation.

In response to the unfolding signs of imminent mass hunger, the government has been stumbling from one gamble to another. Initially it was some palliative of sharing bags of rice to poor people in the states and the FCT. The budgeted N5 billion per state has largely been lost in a haystack of corruption allegations. Claims and counter claims over who got rice or noodles  have featured from across the country. There was a follow up pledge by some states to offer government employees cash incentives of anywhere between N10,000 and N100,000. From most states, the feedback is mostly one of serial default and unfulfilled promises.

While this parade of guesswork has gone on, the cost of living especially food inflation has continued to gallop. Food inflation has shot up from under 30% in May to over 40% now. General inflation has similarly skyrocketed from 33% to over 39% in the same period. More frightening, the exchange rate of the Naira to major world currencies has seen the national currency dip in value from less than N500 to the dollar in May to over N1,600 to the dollar at the time of this writing. Neither the government nor the general populace have any idea of what concrete informed economic actions are being taken to alleviate a worsening economic condition. Nearly every measure or statement of solution by the Central Bank has been greeted by a worsening exchange rate scenario the day after.

One interesting   aspect of the onset of the hunger protests is that they began while President Tinubu was away in Paris on a “private visit”. The message did get to him. He probably cared as a man with the mandate of the people to help them overcome mundane matters like hunger and cashless poverty. But he preferred dignified silence on the matter till he returned home. Since his return, the president has resumed the affairs of state as usual. He has, for instance, urged citizens to recite the national pledge after each rendition of the National Anthem. He has instructed  that limitless amounts of grains be released from the national reserves to assuage the raging hunger.

No one has said exactly where the grains reserves are located and how much the silos hold in total. Even worse, no one has told us how hungry people who are also abjectly poor will pay for the grains. It turns out, as an afterthought, that the grains will be distributed free of charge. But the modalities are yet in the works. The promise of grains has raised other troubling questions. Without reference to any concrete evidence of concrete food production effort to support his optimism, the president has insisted that Nigeria will soon become a net exporter of food as he can envision a period of plenty in the horizon.

As with most things in political Nigeria, the onset of mass hunger and the rising costs of living in the country have been the subject of either political football or predictable populist doublespeak among the elite. Predictably, the Nigerian elite has jumped on the hunger wagon to preach their familiar lines. The more politically minded have opted to play political football   with the hunger crisis.

Former Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi has preferred shifting the blame for the current hardships from Tinubu to Mr. Buhari. This is political bad manners. Every new government is elected to solve the problems they find on the ground, not to blame the predecessor government indefinitely. That is the most elementary lesson of democratic succession. New governments that spend most of their time looking for aspects of mistakes in what they inherited end up badly as a general rule. When Barrack Obama took over from George Bush Jr., some Democrats wanted him to blame the Bush administration for the global economic meltdown of 2007-8. Obama preferred to face and solve the economic problem instead of surrendering the global economy to a litany of blames. He succeeded.

In furtherance of the Nigerian political football about hunger and high cost of living, political megaphones of the ruling APC have blamed the governors of the rival PDP as being responsible for the hardship in the land. They did not distribute the palliatives released to them  nor have they lived up to their obligations in paying the promised allowance of N30,000 to workers in the service of their states. No one has reminded them that the same thing applies to the APC governors.

The Nigerian Labour Congress President has questioned the efficacy of grains as an antidote to universal hunger, arguing that Nigerians are not birds that feed mostly on grains. Implicit in that cynical interrogation of governmental good intention is the common knowledge that food consists of more than grains: proteins, vegetables, fats and various other carbohydrates etc. Meanwhile even the little that is promised remains invisible.

The Sultan of Sokoto has been closer to his  trenchant self. He has said Nigerians are now deeply frustrated, extremely hungry and very resentful. He spoilt his courageous message by insisting that it was time for Nigerians to seek repentance as our present adversities were a repercussion for our past sins.

In similar vein, the incumbent Emir of Kano has sent the message of mass hunger and frustration more directly to the centre of power. Receiving First Lady, Oluremi Tinubu in Kano, the Emir topped up is lavish hospitality with a message through her to her husband. It was clear and direct: “please tell your husband that the people are hungry and angry”.

The clergy is not to be left out. Pastor Enoch Adeboye has shifted the blame for our intractable insecurity and hardship to the realm of the supernatural. In his view, the leaders are doing their best but the insecurity and current hardship require divine intervention. The answer is perhaps in more prayers and supplication while patiently awaiting God’s appointed time for relief of our economic burdens. Meanwhile the scourge of hunger rages and the fire of anger consumes the land as wealthy priests ready to jet out of hell in their private jets.

Having failed to wish away the hunger troubles through political and public opinion manipulation, the Presidency has at last managed to find the courage to confront the matter as a government. President Bola Tinubu held a very consequential meeting last Thursday with the Governors of a 36 states and Minister of the FCT. The meeting was the first tacit admission by their excellencies that the Nigerian state is now reduced to a machinery for confronting the original necessity of the nation state. The business of government is to guarantee the security of lives and property or limbs in the absence of property and to ensure the livelihood (food) of all citizens. In its classical sense, the necessity of government is the need to save humanity from the physical danger of hurt and death by his fellows while guaranteeing food and livelihood for those alive. In short, the essence of the state and government can be reduced to these two elements.

Quite wisely, the President and the governors winded up addressing the biting urgency of security and food security. The consensus on these two is not far fetched. Prior to the last one month, insecurity in the form of banditry, kidnappings, abductions sense killings and violence was the dominant concern of most Nigerians. The idea of state police is being debated to combat bandits and kidnappers.  Meanwhile, rhetorical poverty has graduated into mass abject penury and mass hunger. While sensible normal people can take measures to avoid being kidnapped or abducted, there is no armour against unavoidable hunger.

But when people are hungry, they become irritable and very angry. In every sense, hunger is  an instant unifier of mankind. A mass of hungry people is undifferentiated by the things that divide people in a polity. Hunger has no religion, ethnicity or region. All those whom poverty throws into the hellish pit of hunger find fellowship in the commonality of their condition.

When a critical mass of the citizenry is reduced to an angry mob in protests about basic necessities and hunger, we have the makings of anarchy. An anarchic mob can only produce a revolution for good if the mob is infused with guiding ideas and a populist political leadership. The French were lucky that the mobs that stormed the Bastille in 1789 were armed with a slogan of ‘Equality, Freedom and Egalitarianism’. They were helped along by the arrogance of a monarchy whose queen, on learning that the people were marching to protest scarcity of bread, urged them “to go and eat cakes”! There was of course an underlying political leadership that took over the revolution and converted it into a republic after an intervening period of anarchy.

On the contrary, a series of hunger protests over a wide area such as Nigeria can get out of hand. It could degenerate into mere anarchy if it overwhelms the state. I cannot see an informing idea nor a political leadership that can own or galvanize Nigeria’s hunger protests into a political movement. Therefore, what we may be seeing is a series of rehearsals in anarchy. The possible ensuing mayhem may fall into the hands of a cocktail of power adventurers: military despots, ethnic bigots, religious fundamentalists,  narcotics warlords and treasure- seeking gangster collectives. What began as hunger protests could lead straight into anarchy and total state meltdown.

Perhaps it is much easier to import, mass produce or borrow food to assuage these hunger protests and mobs than allow them to consume the fragile Nigerian state and plunge us all into a 100 years of anarchy.

The President Bola Tinubu administration has responded swiftly to street protests in three Nigerian cities about rising food prices. Some high-level meetings have been held and clear directives have been given, including through a statement by the president himself after his emergency meeting with state governors on Thursday. This is commendable. Challenges can compound when officials do not act on time. This administration can thus be awarded an A on responsiveness. However, the government will struggle for a passing grade on the quality of its immediate interventions for taming soaring food prices. Some of its interpretations and actions on the issue need more nuance and rigour, and could benefit from a quick rethink.

Public policy can be likened to the field of medicine. Proper diagnosis is foundational and should guide the way to appropriate prescription and effective treatment. Misdiagnosis has dangerous consequences not just in the medical field, but also in governance. When confronted with a public challenge, officials should spend quality time to first understand what is going on, identify the remote and immediate triggers, then design their interventions. Granted that sometimes decisions have to be taken quickly and it is difficult to have perfect information in governance but querying assumptions, being sceptical about ideas that easily jump to the fore and asking the why question many times over could help. Public policies should not be made on a hunch or on impulse/emotions or be based on anecdotal evidence or isolated intelligence. Constantly, policymakers need to ask themselves: what does the fact tell us? Policymakers need to make data, not dogma, their friend.

Different government officials, including the president, have implicated hoarders as the culprits of rising food prices. Security forces have been ordered to go after them. A government agency in Kano actually stormed and sealed ten warehouses in the ancient city for hoarding foodstuffs and other essential items, and the president acknowledged this on Thursday. Merchants, including those who trade across borders, have also been blamed. The Minister of Agriculture was reported as saying Nigerian land borders should be closed to stop those coming to buy our grains on the cheap and driving up prices here. The Nigerian Customs Service has swung into action by impounding vehicles reportedly smuggling food items out of Nigeria. The governor of Niger State was quoted as saying traders from other parts of Nigeria will be banned from buying food grown in his state. Sometimes it is difficult to believe that we are in 2024 AD.

There is a lot to unpack from these official statements and actions. Suffice to say that these prescriptions and statements give insights into official diagnosis of rising food prices. With all the charity I can muster, I will say these official prescriptions reveal a reductionist and even dangerous diagnosis of the problem. The misdiagnosis could be inadvertent or deliberate—inadvertent because of inadequate attention to data and developments; deliberate because of a ploy to create scapegoats, cause distractions and divert attention. Whatever it is, government is unwittingly creating another set of problems. It is undermining efforts at improving storage of agricultural produce, stigmatising and criminalising enterprise, discouraging investment, and officially sanctioning possible harassment and extortion of businesses by security agents. Worse: hungry and angry people could start storming and ‘liberating’ warehouses, stores and shops of ‘hoarded items.’

Just to be clear: farmers and traders have always stored food items that they could. (I know this first hand as I followed my grandfather to his farms almost every day for two years while waiting for university admission. My grandfather stored grains and yams on his farms and in the house sometimes for close to a year.) It is also not unusual for traders to aggregate produce from farmers, store and package them in warehouses/stores before selling to wholesalers and retailers. So, farmers, merchants and commodity traders storing grains and other items is not the problem. It will be important to know what objective metrics government officials and informants will use to determine when keeping items in warehouses/stores is legitimate storage and when it is hoarding.

Also, selling grains across the borders actually predated independent Nigeria. And it is not a one-way trade: we buy grains from and sell to our neighbours depending on prices and harvests’ yields. For ages, we have had border markets and even international grains markets. A ready example of the latter is the Dawanau International Grains Market in Kano, which is patronised by farmers and traders from across Nigeria and from other west and central African countries. So, selling food items to non-Nigerians cannot be the reason for high food prices. According to even accounts by government officials, there is no scarcity of food in Nigerian markets. Food items are readily available. Affordability is the challenge. The nuance that government needs to factor into its clearly tendentious diagnosis is that an item can be available and be expensive at the same time, especially when price is largely driven by cost. However, admitting to the impact of associated costs will not allow the government to easily pass the buck or create convenient scapegoats.

Food prices are impacted by associated costs in two ways. One obvious transmission line is transportation costs. Most of the trucks moving farm inputs and produce run on diesel, which is fully deregulated and which now sells for about N1400 per litre in Abuja. It would be unfair to expect the farmers and traders to absorb that cost. The second channel is that farmers have to adjust their prices to ensure that rising inflation doesn’t hand them the short end of the stick. Farmers cannot grow everything they need and they have reasonable expectations of the basket of goods that their produce should give them. We can call this the exchange value of their produce. For example, if a 100kg bag of sorghum used to fetch a farmer 50kg of vegetable oil, what do you expect the farmer to do when the price of vegetable oil doubles? Take the halving of the value of his bag of sorghum as an act of God or as a patriotic contribution or adjust his own prices? Farmers/traders adjusting their prices to ensure they can maintain a commensurate standard of living in the midst of soaring cost of living is not profiteering. It is a rational human response.

Though I criticise the implementation style and clear lack of a prior strategy for the Tinubu reforms on petrol subsidy removal and official exchange rates unification, I think both reforms are necessary and I support them. But it is indisputable that it is the combined effect of both reforms, especially the constant depreciation of the Naira in both official and parallel markets, that is the main driving force behind the recent surge in the prices of most goods, including home-grown food items for reasons mentioned earlier. It is true that both headline inflation and food inflation have been high for a while. According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food inflation crossed the 20% threshold in June 2022 (20.60%) and headline inflation caught up in August 2022 (20.52%). Both have not looked back since, with headline inflation and food inflation notching up to 29.90% and 35.41% respectively in January 2024. The constant yo-yoing of the Naira, now beyond the previously unimaginable N1500/$1 threshold, is the immediate cause of skyrocketing prices. The farmers and traders didn’t cause the plummeting of the value of the Naira.

To be sure, our homegrown food items would now be cheaper for our neighbours because they are holding a relatively stronger currency, leading to an increase in quantity demanded. And of course, there would be some unscrupulous traders cashing in here and there too. But as long as these activities have not led to shortage or scarcity of grains and other foodstuffs in the markets (as government officials themselves have repeatedly said), we have to look for the drivers of high food prices elsewhere. Policy makers should be asking for actual or proxy data on demand and supply before arriving at probable cause. One useful hint about the hollowness of the primacy of the hoarding/smuggling narrative: prices of all food items, including perishable and non-exported ones, are rising.

Our overstretched security and anti-corruption agents should have more important things to do with their precious time than to be reduced to price police and chasers of food hoarders/smugglers. This approach feeds into the fallacy that the brute force of the state can solve all problems including purely market issues. It is wrongheaded, counter-productive and futile. I will not join those asking the government to abandon its two signature reforms. Government needs to finetune their implementation and develop robust strategies for them. Government also needs to urgent change course on some of its approach to the food price crisis.

It is commendable that president has ordered the release of 42,000 metric tons of grains from the national grains reserves to be distributed free to the poor. But as in other areas, the absence of a clear strategy is evident. The Minister of Information announced the presidential order on February 8^th but gave no indication about how this will be done. On February 14^th, the Minister of Agriculture said the distribution will be done by NEMA and DSS but that government is awaiting ‘indexes’ from these agencies. Up till now, a cup of grains has not been shared anywhere and there is no clarity on when this emergency intervention will start.

By the way, 42, 000 metric tons comes to 840, 000 bags of grains in 50kg bags. Assuming equal distribution, that will come to 22, 703 bags of grains for each of the 36 states and FCT. It will be interesting to see how much grains will get to each person (and the cost of distribution) in a country where 104 million people are categorised as income poor. I find two other things curious in this still cloudy arrangement: the involvement of DSS in identifying and distributing food to the poor; and the fact that 79.25% of the 53,000 metric tons of grains in our reserves will be released at once. On the latter point, an argument could be made that releasing about four-fifth of our reserves at once shows how seriously the government takes this crisis. Fair enough. But what happens to high food prices after the distribution, what happens to the beneficiaries after the one-off largesse and what happens in case of a critical emergency in the country?   

I am all for the state coming to the aid of the poorest of the poor. But I don’t think people are asking for free food. Agreed it is good gesture, and maybe some people actually need bowls of free grains. But how sustainable is this approach and what happens next? My sense is that most people are bothered about constantly changing prices of food items. Maybe releasing the grains to boost supply would have been a more appropriate intervention. Or maybe splitting what will be released to the market to boost supply and what will be shared gratis could also be a mid-path. Maybe. This goes back to the issue of proper diagnosis and the imperative of driving policy decisions with data.

But there are more things to worry about. In the statement released on his X handle, President Tinubu said: “I will not establish a price control board, nor will I approve the importation of food. We must extricate ourselves from this predicament because importation only enables rent seekers to perpetrate fraud and mismanagement at our collective expense. Instead, we will support our farmers with schemes that encourage them to cultivate more food for the nation.” This is a great quote by the way. Fighting and patriotic words. I agree with the president on the futility of price control and on the need to support our farmers to produce more (because we actually have a serious food security problem that we need to tackle in many ways in the medium term to long term).

But, Mr. President, we have an urgent problem that demands an immediate and consequential intervention. I don’t think fighting and patriotic words are enough. The only immediate solution that the president has put on the table is the 42,000 metric tons of free grains, but it is too puny to make a dent. According to the USDA, Nigeria in 2024 is projected to consume 31.35 million metric tons of just four major grains: corn (12.3mmt), rice (7.8mmt), sorghum (6.75mmt) and wheat (4.5mmt). That 42,000mmt is a mere 0.13% of our projected consumption of four grains this year. Whatever support the president and the governors give to farmers now will not translate to harvests and lower prices until three to six months. What happens in the interim? This is why the fighting words about imports have to be reconsidered.

Luckily, we are largely self-sufficient in roots/tubers, pulses, maize and sorghum. We are close to self-sufficiency in rice, but we have had an annual supply gap in excess of two million metric tons for more than ten years despite all our interventions over the time. But we are dependent on imports almost 100% for our supply of wheat and sugar, two items consumed directly or used as inputs for foods and drinks widely consumed in the country, especially in the tetchy urban areas. So, the fighting and patriotic words on not sanctioning importation and not enabling rent-seeking are not quite helpful in addressing the problem at hand. Despite all the different regimes of restrictions, we always import some staple food items anyway. If what the president meant is that the government will not do the importation, that is fine.

But there are levers that the government can pull to quickly reduce the prices of some strategic food items like rice, sugar and wheat: reducing or removing tariffs on them, even for a short period. The argument is about making cheaper items that we already import, items that we do not have capacity to meet or fully meet in the short to medium terms, and items that are widely consumed and whose prices set the prices of so many other food items made out of them.

At this time of high stress, the government invariably punishes consumers with high prices if it continues to insist on imposing tariffs of 85% on wheat (the main ingredient for bread), 75% on sugar (on which we created market power for Dangote, BUA and Flour Mills in the name of a clearly ineffective backward integration policy) and 70% on rice. Removing or reducing the tariffs, duties and other charges on these items for say three to six months will quickly reduce their prices and touch many more people than distributing cups of free grains. Late President Umaru Yar’Adua removed all levies and duties on rice between May and November 2008 in response to the global food crisis at the time. The price of imported rice crashed by 45%. A rough calculation shows that even at the current exchange rate, imported rice will cost at least 35% cheaper today without tariff and duties.

Reducing or removing tariff on these three items won’t bring down the prices of all food items, but it will considerably calm nerves and will be good signalling because of the strategic importance of the items involved. It will not be cost-free. Government will take a revenue cut. But it is a time-bound cut, and the slight reduction in revenue will be more than compensated for by the benefits to the larger society. Government will be seen to be making sacrifice for the people and to be taking immediate and significant steps (not engaging in work avoidance of chasing ‘hoarders’ and ‘profiteers’). Consumers will breathe a little.

The fears about displacing local farmers are misplaced, as the items spoken about here are not maize, sorghum, cassava, yam and others in which we are self-sufficient. In any case, we need to look at the big, national picture, not just the narrow interest of a lobby group or at how to burnish our ideological/nationalistic credentials. We need pragmatic and immediate interventions on this food issue. And very quickly too, as it is not in anyone’s interest for the surging hunger and anger on the streets to spill over. 

Coup making is not the exclusive preserve of soldiers or the armed forces. Civilians, too, do stage coups. In Nigeria, we have had our fair share of coups and counter-coups, and have resolved that our collective aspirations as a people are best served by a government of the people, for the people and by the people.

Every form of government has its own warts. We have been indoctrinated to believe that the universal adult suffrage of the West is God-ordained. But we have seen, especially in the last US presidential elections, attempts to stage a coup by overrunning the parliament and preventing the announcement of the winner of the elections. That incident clearly showed the whole world that there is nothing unassailable about American democracy. Every mother does have them.

Long ago, I came to the conclusion that each society deserved to devise its own system based on its history, culture and aspirations. The monarchical system of Saudi Arabia is replicated in the United Kingdom. Even then, the more you try to compare them, the more they look different because each has its own peculiar flavour. The world can no longer describe a monarchical setting as autocratic because these days, the monarch merely reigns while a prime minister rules.

Until recently, Senegal had the distinction of being the poster boy for democracy in Africa. Since Independence in 1960, the country has managed to glide from one civilian administration to the other, even the handing over of power by a ruling party to the opposition— First in 1980, from Leopold Sedar Senghor to Abdou Diouf; then, in 2000, from Diouf to Abdoulaye Wade; and then, in 2012, from Wade to Sall. The country has never experienced the ugly incidence of coups, not even when forceful change of government was commonplace in Africa.

Third Term Bug

Although regular elections are held, each one of Senegal’s leaders attempted to stay in power longer than the designated time. Political observers had been wondering if incumbent president Macky Sall would escape the bite of the tenure extension bug, especially as he had publicly declared that he would not succumb to what we in Nigeria call the “third term syndrome”. Everything seemed primed for a successful election until the president forcefully procured an indefinite postponement of the election by getting the parliament to do his bidding with security forces bundling opposition elements who disagreed with the move out of the parliament.

Judging by his body language, Sall desired to run for a third term, but knowing that such an unconstitutional move would pit him against the people, he jettisoned that option in 2023, and endorsed Amadou Ba as his candidate for succession. Then, as the election date drew nearer, it seemed he could no longer bear the imminent change in status from president to citizen and he therefore decided to make another attempt at tenure elongation by first postponing the elections indefinitely. Sall, who has been in power since 2012, called off the elections over disputes about the disqualification of potential candidates and concern about a repeat of the unrest seen in 2021 and 2023. Senegal’s opposition has decried the move as a “constitutional coup” and suspects it is part of a plan by the presidential camp to extend Sall’s term in office.

It is interesting how history repeats itself. Sengor had played a few political tricks to stay in power for 22 years before handing over power to his chosen successor, Abdou Diouf, in 1980. Diouf stayed in power for two decades during which Abdoulaye Wade was his fiercest opponent. Wade went to jail for his political convictions and even went on exile at a point in time.

His tenacity won him a lot of followers and his popular movement succeeded in defeating the long-ruling Socialist Party headed by Diouf. Towards the end of his second term, he succumbed to the third term bug. He started plotting how to remain in power beyond the constitutional mandate. When he saw that the people of Senegal would not tolerate him for one day longer than constitutionally guaranteed, he named his son, Karim Wade, as his successor. The dynastic dream of the Wades was not to be. Karim ran foul of the law and was convicted of corruption, thus ending his presidential dream.

Long Knives

After the elimination of Karim Wade from the list of possible leaders in the country, Senegal was confronted with the possibility that power could go to Ousmane Sonko, a maverick politician nicknamed by some of his admirers as the “Trump of Senegal”. It was Sonko who published a book on oil and gas corruption in which the Sall-led administration was roundly indicted. It was also Sonko who famously said, “Those who have ruled Senegal from the beginning deserve to be shot.”

Last year, sexual assault charges were preferred against him in what many people saw as political vendetta. The court acquitted him of the rape charge but convicted for “corrupting the youth”. Young people, many of whom believe in him, took to the streets in protest, but Sall quelled all the protests forcefully. But Sonko is out of this 2004 ballot.

With Sall and Sonko out of the race, is there a clear frontrunner? The answer is no. Analysts have been weighing the chances of Sall’s chosen successor Ba, as well as long-time Sall opponents Khalifa Sall and former premier Seck. There is also Bassirou Diomaye Faye, whom members of Sonko’s now-dissolved Pastef party nominated as a back-up candidate in the event of Sonko’s disqualification. Faye himself is in detention but he remains eligible to run as there has been no ruling yet on the case of defamation and contempt of court against him.

It is unlikely that any of the candidates will cross the 50% threshold in the election to claim victory. The election is therefore likely to go to the second round.

President Sall’s bad behaviour has put his brother presidents in ECOWAS in a quandary. With the way ECOWAS has been sending signals that coups are no longer welcome in the West African sub-region, it was embarrassing that Senegal, the stainless member of the community, the beacon for democracy is toeing the line of anomie. Frantic efforts were being made by the regional body and the African Union last week to save President Sall from himself. It was clear to every objective analyst that Sall had pushed his country to the precipice. The only logical gear to engage was the reverse gear.

Court Intervention

Which was what, thankfully, the Constitutional Court did last week to the relief of all those who had been monitoring the unfolding tragedy. Opposition presidential candidates and lawmakers had filed a number of legal challenges to last week’s parliamentary bill, which also extended President Macky Sall’s mandate in what critics said amounted to an “institutional coup”. Senegal’s Constitutional Council has now cancelled the decree signed by President Macky Sall that postponed the election. The National Assembly’s move on February 5 to reschedule the vote for December 14 also was adjudged “contrary to the constitution”.

As a result of protests and international pressure, President Macky Sall has ordered the release of some political prisoners. To further ease the tension in the land, the president also has to lift restrictions placed on internet usage

Let Sall’s misadventure into ‘third-termism’ be a lesson to all African leaders. You have no right to transmogrify from a democrat to a despot. Indeed, your tenancy of the state house is at the pleasure of the people. It is immaterial whether the mastermind of a coup is a soldier or a civilian; a coup is a coup. Had Sall’s coup succeeded, it wouldn’t have been any different from those of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

The people are stirring and the leaders are panicky! As hunger keeps the people awake, the fear of what a hungry person can do keeps the well-fed awake! This is typical of a chick that perches on a rope: No peace for the rope and no peace for the chick.

True, then, are the words of Frederick Douglass that “If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favour freedom and yet deprecate agitation are men who want crops without plowing the ground. They want rain without thunder and lightning. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue until they are resisted with either words or bows or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those they oppress”

It could not have been better put! And the practical demonstration of that has begun to unfold before our very eyes in the protests against escalating cost of living, especially of essential foodstuffs, taking place spontaneously – or instigated, as some have alleged – in parts of the country. Semantics and politics apart, what is incontestable is that these are hard times. And something quickly has to be done before matters get out of hand. If food is not made available for the people to eat, they sure would not mind eating the leaders themselves!

The Government moved days ago to find solutions: The president and the governors rubbed minds and arrived at some decisions which ought to have been taken a long time ago by previous administrations, such as on state police to curb insecurity, which has driven farmers off the farm; accelerated food production all over the country, rather than continued dependence on the importation of essential commodities; and the mobilization of state governors to play their own part in solving problems, instead of abandoning all the task for the Federal Government and heaping all the blames on Mr. President.

The First Republic remains the golden age of Nigeria where all the achievements we still refer to today were chalked up but, tell me, what do we remember the Federal Government for, in that epoch? I cannot remember any! But we remember the regions for their achievements. In an era when there was no crude oil, it was agriculture that the regional governments leveraged upon to record outstanding successes.

Competition amongst the regions produced the development that we still speak about to this day. Discovery of crude oil, abandonment of agriculture and industrialization, the splintering of the economically viable regions into weak states, decades of military adventurism and amateurish governance; scandalous cost of governance; and the cankerworm of corruption that grew steadily to become the octopus that it is today - all of these have combined to bring this country on its knees.
Whether it will rise again, like the Phoenix rising from its ashes, remains to be seen.

The meeting of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the governors, however, gives a ray of hope. One of the news media reported it thus: “President Bola Tinubu and governors have agreed on 10 ways to tackle the security and food challenges in the country. Tinubu in company of Vice President Kashim Shettima on Thursday, February 14, 2024 met with the 36 States Governors and the FCT Minister at the State House. Special Adviser to the President on Information & Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, who provided insight into the deliberations between the President and the state governors, said the meeting agreed on common grounds to address some of the challenges currently facing the country, especially the rising cost of food and insecurity.

"Onanuga said after extensive deliberations, the President and governors agreed to work together to solve the problems and tackle the economic pressure being faced by the citizens. On ways of addressing insecurity, which is affecting farming and food production, President Tinubu made three key pronouncements: One, more police personnel to be recruited to strengthen the force. Two, President Tinubu informed the governors that the Federal Government will work with them and the National Assembly towards putting in place a mechanism that will engender state police, instead of the vigilantes that are being used in some states. Three, the President charged the governors to strengthen their Forest Rangers and arm them to keep all the forest safe from criminals. It was agreed that the modalities for State Police and addressing security issues (are) to be discussed further at the National Economic Council.

"On rising cost of food, the President directed that the state and federal governments should collaborate to increase local food production. The President advised against the idea of food importation and price control... Also, the President advised governors to follow the example of Kano State in dealing with hoarding of food for profiteering by commodities merchants. He directed the Inspector-General of Police, National Security Adviser, Department of State Services to monitor warehouses hoarding food items across the country and stop profiteering by merchants. The President charged governors to pay attention to livestock development in their states and increase production, most especially poultry and fishing products”

Onanuga then quoted the president as saying: “My position at this meeting is that we must move aggressively and establish a committee to look critically at the issues raised, including the possibility of establishing state police. From Kano, we have read reports about large-scale hoarding of food in some warehouses. The National Security Adviser (NSA), the Inspector-General of Police, and the Director-General of the Department of State Services should coordinate very closely and ensure that security agencies in the states inspect such warehouses with follow up action. We must ensure that speculators, hoarders, and rent seekers are not allowed to sabotage our efforts in ensuring the wide availability of food to all Nigerians.

“What I will not do is to set a price control board. I will not also approve the importation of food. We should be able to get ourselves out of the situation we found ourselves in because importation will allow rent seekers to perpetrate fraud and mismanagement at our collective expense. We would rather support farmers with the schemes that will make them go to the farm and grow more food for everyone in the country. We must also look at the rapid but thoughtful implementation of our livestock development and management plans, including dairy farming and others”

The President was also reported to have pleaded with governors to ensure that all salary arrears to workers, gratuities to workers and pensioners are cleared as a way to put money into the hands of the people since states are now getting more monthly FAAC revenue. "Spend the money, don’t spend the people", the president was said to have urged the governors. "President Tinubu (also) implored governors to create more economic opportunities for the youths in their states to keep them more productively engaged”.

I like the way the governors have been dragged into the matter of insecurity and food protection by Mr. President. The local government chairpersons must have been excluded because of their sheer number – which chamber will accommodate the whole lot, 774 in number? The heat, usually, has been on the President while governors escape the censure, when the reverse ought to have been the case. Many governors do nothing with the funds they collect. It is time for them to be put on the spot. Let the groundnuts pyramids return in the North! Let the Southwest regain its lost glory as one of the world’s top cocoa producers! Let the East compete with Malaysia in palm-oil production!

On insecurity, it is time for the governors to justify money collected as security votes. What have they been securing? Yes, we need more policemen. But quantity must also go hand-in-hand with quality. Good training, modern equipment, hi-tech, and motivation must all work pari-passu if we are to have value for money. State police are long overdue. Now the governors will have a good place to spend their security votes.

Still on insecurity, the governors for long neglected to explore the Forest Rangers option, which the law sanctions and which is not as politically contentious as State Police. But now with the president's tacit acceptance of both State policing and Forest Rangers empowerment, keeping our forests free of dangerous elements becomes a task that must be done. As I shared the Forest Rangers idea with one of the South-west governors a fortnight ago, I was happy to hear him say it was on the cards. Now, I can see it truly was.

I support that we grow our own food rather than rely on imports. I belong to a group where some members incessantly advocated for the “importation” of foodstuffs from the Middle Belt of the country into the South-west. Each time they broached the idea, I wasted no time in shooting it down. We must grow our own food in the South-west instead of relying on “food imports” from the North. We all saw how they used food as a weapon against us not long ago!

We used to grow our own foodstuffs. We can do so again. Governors and LG chairmen must lead the way back to the farm in the Southwest. We must grow whatever is growable in our backyards. Every available space must be turned into gardens. In my primary and secondary school days, we had gardens and school farms – even fish ponds. Let the governors start a Green Revolution that will spread like wildfire all over the Southwest.

I once advised a Southwest governor to convert a sprawling field within the Government House into a farm where we could grow some of the foodstuffs that we consumed in the Government House but he said no. He loved to see the green grass mowed day-after-day for nothing! Bunkum! It is that type of stupid mentality that causes the Southwest to starve today. Let every green grass that serves no purpose pave way for farms that will grow pepper, tomatoes, vegetables, yams, beans, etc.

A crate of eggs now costs N3,500! What this means is that every source of animal protein is now beyond the reach of the average Nigerian! Meat, chicken, and fish are already no-go areas! The solution is for us to return to the farm. Growing up, I had a garden where I grew all sorts of items. I also raised chicken. I plan to return to all of that as much as is practicable. If we all strive to reduce what we go to the market to purchase, we shall be contributing to solving the problem of the escalating cost of foodstuffs. Bringing down the cost of living is not the responsibility of the government alone; but for each and everyone of us, it is a task that must be done!