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[OPINION] Oil politics and community development: A note to Seplat Energy - Etim Etim
Seplat Energy Plc, an indigenous oil and gas producer, is settling down to business in Akwa Ibom with its successful acquisition of the assets and liabilities of ExxonMobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited last year. It was one of the protracted corporate purchases in Nigeria’s oil industry lasting well over five years. ExxonMobil had operated in the state for over 50 years (It started as Mobil and in November 1999, merged with Exxon to form ExxonMobil) and had become an important part of the Akwa Ibom community until it was bought last year for $1.3 billion by Seplat. To make its presence easily felt in the state, Seplat appointed an eminent Akwa Ibom son, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma, as its board chairman. Early this year, the chairman led the company on a visit to Governor Umo Eno. I congratulate Senator Udoma on his appointment and I welcome Seplat to Akwa Ibom the state. But I have a few words of advice for the company.
During the visit to the Government House, Senator Udoma told the governor that the company is willing to partner with the government for sustainable development and would ‘’support the socio-economic development of Akwa Ibom State’’ and improve the wellbeing of the host communities. He said ExxonMobil was acquired by a subsidiary of Seplat known as Seplat Energy Offshore Limited, and clarified that the new entity will now be known as Seplat Energy Producing Nigeria Unlimited (SEPNU) and that all assets and liabilities of the previous company would be retained. Gov. Eno welcomed the company and promised cooperation from the government.
The specific roles and contributions of oil companies to the host communities are well spelt out in the Petroleum Industry Act and I am sure that SEPNU will do well to adhere to the provisions of this law and establish healthy relationships with its host communities in particular and Akwa Ibom State as a whole. But there are other items that I wish to bring to the notice of the company in terms of its relationship with Akwa Ibom State. First, ExxonMobil was a very responsible corporate citizen and through its conduct; it endeared itself to the people and the government. It had a lot of Akwa Ibom people in its senior management cadre. My good friend, Udom Inoyo, who is also well known to Senator Udoma, rose from a junior executive position hired in 1989 to the position of Executive Vice chairman from where he retired a few ago. There were many other Akwa Ibom sons and daughters in senior positions as geophysicists; engineers; lawyers; HR; finance; communications and IT specialists, etc.
Now, these people are retiring, and I want to advise that SEPNU should replace them with other Akwa Ibom people who are qualified to hold these positions. SEPNU should not make the mistake of replacing them with people from other places with the hackneyed excuse that ‘’there’s no qualified Akwa Ibom person for the job’’. I have heard such silly excuses from other companies, and I believe that with Senator Udoma as chairman, Seplat will not insult our people with a similar justification. In fact, SEPNU may have to draw up an affirmative action to ensure the employment of our people in all cadres; with at least two Akwa Ibom people in executive positions. There are many qualified Akwa Ibom persons and they are capable of competing for any position in the company. Akwa Ibom people will resist every attempt at cleansing out our people who were hired, trained and groomed by ExxonMobil from SEPNU.
ExxonMobil had also built and maintained a large pool of competent contractors and service providers from Akwa Ibom State. I imagine that SEPNU will continue to use them and add more to the list in future. In fact, it would be cost-effective for SEPNU to encourage service providers to be located close to QIT instead of mobilizing them from Warri, Lagos or Port Harcourt to its shallow water platforms. In terms of educational intervention, SEPNU should also offer generous scholarships to Akwa Ibom students at various educational institutions. ExxonMobil was also very good at this. The technical training centre built by ExxonMobil in Eket which served as a training facility for the technical staff will have to be upgraded to a full-fledged engineering centre.
ExxonMobil had planned to establish an engineering centre at the University of Uyo, but unfortunately, the plan was not fully realized before it exited the State. An engineering centre is relevant for the Nigerian oil industry as a training facility for the core professionals in civil, mechanical, petroleum and alternative energy engineering. SEPNU may wish to go ahead and either upgrade the training centre to an engineering centre or complete the one ExxonMobil was planning to build at UniUyo as well as continue with the trauma centre it was planning for the University of Uyo Teaching Hospital.
The location of ExxonMobil’s corporate headquarters in Lagos was a major concern to the Akwa Ibom people and the state government. The company resisted pressures from successive governors to relocate to Akwa Ibom despite the incentives and conducive business environment the state offers. As a renowned corporate lawyer, Senator Udoma understands the intricacies of oil politics and he’s in a position to guide Seplat on the issue of headquarters location. Seplat will do well to respect the people; interests and cultures of our people and work to establish mutually beneficial relationships with the people and their government.
I have a word for the host communities and the state government. Undoubtedly, they have their respective roles in making a success of Seplat’s entry to the state. While the PIA authorizes oil companies to pay royalties directly to the host communities, it is the responsibility of the host communities to manage these funds efficiently, and transparently and develop the communities. The monies are not to be shared among community leaders.
The state government is expected to deploy tax revenues and contributions from the oil company to create an enabling environment for the growth of business. I recall that in 2011, ExxonMobil paid N8 billion to the Akwa Ibom government when Godswill Akpabio was governor as its contribution to the repairs and expansion of Eket-Ibeno Road. But quite curiously, the Udom Emmanuel administration that succeeded Akpabio later denied that the money was paid. The denial created quite a furore and resulted in an unfortunate and needless controversy which embarrassed our people, including Akwa Ibom executives in the company. It was enough to discourage future CSR initiatives from the company. The government has a responsibility to manage its resources responsibly and transparently to earn the confidence of the citizens and investors.
I’m pleased at the appointment of Senator Udoma as the Chairman of Seplat. In 2021, I put him and 12 other persons on the cover of my book on the struggle for the abrogation of the onshore-offshore oil dichotomy. As a senator between 1999 and 2007, he fought hard to ensure the abrogation of the obnoxious dichotomy and with that, Akwa Ibom has been receiving billions every month in oil revenues. Senator Udoma is one of the most upright; decent and honest Nigerians. I’m sure that he will protect our interests.
[OPINION] IBB: An irrepressible enigma and enduring institution - Femi Fani-Kayode
Thirty-two years after leaving power, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida has assumed full responsibility for what happened on the June 12th 1993 annulment of Chief MKO Abiola’s presidential election and its attendant consequences.
He has explained the circumstances under which it happened and has not only acknowledged that Abiola actually won the election but that he was also unfairly robbed of his mandate when he and his military regime annulled it.
What he didn’t say was that if he had not annulled the election, those who wanted it aborted would have killed him, key members of his government, MKO Abiola, MKO’s family and everyone else who opposed them and his government would have been toppled in a very violent and bloody coup which would have definitely led to a long, brutal and protracted civil war.
IBB has told his side of the story and explained to us what actually transpired. He refused to remain silent, he did not shy away from speaking the truth or refuse to accept responsibility and he did not pass the buck. Instead, he came clean, displayed immense courage and did the proper thing.
That is what leaders are meant to do and he did it without fear or favour regardless of whose ox was gored. Kudos to him. We need to appreciate this gesture, eschew all bitterness, let go of all our pent-up anger, forgive him for what many perceive to be his sins and move on. Equally, we need to accord him his rightful place in history as one the the greats despite his fallibility. He is after all a mere man, albeit a great one, and not God.
Only God is free of fault and is infallible and there is not one man that has ever lived, led or ruled that is infallible. All those insulting and abusing him today for putting the facts and his experiences on record in his book are malevolent, bitter, twisted souls & unenlightened, ignorant, cowards who have no appreciation of history or what this man actually achieved in his eight years in office or the events that led up to June 12.
They only see things in part and are allowing their emotions rather than their heads to rule them. I was in the NADECO trenches during that difficult time and like many others paid my dues too but I can say that outside of the June 12 matter, IBB did more for Nigeria than virtually any other president or head of state.
He left power 32 years ago and yet every single living former Nigerian president and head of state, bar President Muhammadu Buhari who he had removed from power in a coup in 1985, attended his book launching in person and despite all, Buhari actually sent a representative.
It was an extraordinary event and I witnessed it with my own eyes because I had the privilege of being invited.
If the number of leaders that attended — which included President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Head of State General Yakubu Gowon, former Head of State General Abdulsalami Abubakar, former President and former Head of State President Olusegun Obasanjo, former President Goodluck Jonathan, former President of Ghana Nana Akufo Addo, former President of Sierra Leone President Koroma, former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, former Vice President Sambo and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar — did not tell Nigerians the high esteem that the ruling elites have for him, then nothing will.
May God continue to be with this great and inspiring man who has displayed immense discipline, resilience, dignity, self-respect, courage and humility throughout his distinguished life. I pray he continues to share his vast reserves of knowledge & wisdom & make his contributions to national development for many years to come.
Whether his numerous detractors like it or not IBB remains an enigma, an institution and the most consequential head of state and president in our history. No one can take that from him and we are very proud of him. I wish both him and his family well.
[OPINION] Babangida’s journey and his service - Festus Adedayo
Since Thursday when his autobiography, A Journey In Service, was launched, former military president, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, has taken centre stage of national attention. The autobiography reminds me of James Hadley Chase’s Make the Corpse Walk. It is the story of eccentric millionaire, Kester Weidmann, who in his weirdest best, believed money could buy everything, life and death inclusive. So, one day, Weidmann woke up with the crazy idea that his dead brother could be brought back to life. He then enlisted the services of a voodoo specialist to perform this crazed task. Rollo, crooked nightclub, owner was his perfect find to act out this massive con artistry of a lifetime. Things however went awry with the cast of this weird task who soon told themselves that Weidmann’s wealth was more attractive a pie than his absurd voodoo fabrication.
A couple of weeks ago, I recall citing Dr. Nina Mba’s description of biographers as “People who knead people.” It was in the process of taking a bird’s-eye view of Chief Bisi Akande’s autobiography, My Participations. My interpretation of Mba’s phrasal coinage was that biographers knead their subjects like bakers make raw flour into edible pancake, doughnut or bread. I also found my own label for autobiographers. Many a time, I submitted, they are self-conjurers. A Journey In Service didn’t just attempt to knead an edible dough out of an IBB Nigerians would love to hate, it is a re-conjuration, a Nigerian Kester Weidmann ex-head of state’s attempt to knead a compelling dough from his raw self perception in the estimation of history.
Make no mistake about it, very few, if there are any, Nigerian rulers possessed General Babangida’s intelligence, brilliance and savvy. It is why I easily agree with Gen Yakubu Gowon, in his foreword to the autobiography, who says “General Babangida was arguably one of the most remarkable military officers this country is blessed with.” While the last 25 years of civilian rule have paraded accidents as leaders, Babangida wanted power, romanced power, was besotted by power and prepared for power, mentally and physically. While in office, his statecraft and style of leadership were a total lift from and replica portraiture of the precepts in The Prince, 16th-century Italian writer, diplomat and politician, Niccolo Machiavelli’s famous but deadly portrait of and prescriptions for tough leadership.
To reinforce this and create a look-alike model of Machiavelli’s quintessential ruler, IBB garnished power with the image of a lethal ruler. In the same vein, he decorated the cottage of power with the sweet icing of a patrimonial leader. Like Machiavelli, Babangida concentrated and centered power around himself. This gave the semblance of a leadership that was people-centred, under the pretence of running a government that carried the people along. He was also unpredictable with power, like the Machiavelli Prince, springing surprises at the drop of a hat, a portraiture that is a dip into the playbook of Machiavelli. In the same way, like a concentration camp, he gathered people of contravening persuasions into government, sucking them in via gifts and purchase of their loyalties. Respected academics fell to his suasion through appointments while his smiles hid the graffiti of a sadistic rule.
Like Machiavelli, IBB silenced opposition. His smilingly harmless look turned his opposition into jelly. For instance, he swayed hitherto unbending critics like Tai Solarin who he brought into the People’s Bank and subsequently humiliated. Babangida ran a government that was unpredictable and which he manoeuvred to sustain his hold on power. He was a genie of a genius, deservedly earning the sobriquets of “evil genius” and “Maradona.” But, as a replay of the epic downfall of emperors, rulers and suzerains of old has shown, wisdom kills the wise. Many times, the wise die in graveyards dug by the unwise. My people render this as “Ogbon pa ologbon”.
Very few Nigerian leaders built institutions that endure like Babangida. He went on a binge of self-adulation when he made a recount of these in his book. Babangida established organisations like the Mass Mobilization for Self Recovery, Social Justice and Economic Recovery (MAMSER), Directorate of Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructure, (DIFFRI) Code of Conduct Bureau, AMCON, etc. Many of the political institutions he established, some of which still stand today, were products of the tirelessly innovating mind of the military leader. He also introduced some palliative measures into the economy, especially after the early 1990s SAP riots like the Urban Mass Transit Programme; Better Life for Rural Dwellers Programme; non-interest small loan-funneling community banks like the Peoples Bank, among others.
In A Journey In Service, Babangida gave the impression of a ruler who was not driven by self to serve. Which was not completely true. By the time he vacated power in 1993, allegations of frittering off more than $14 billion 1992 Gulf War oil windfall hung on his head like a Sword of Damocles.
While A Journey In Service contains the histrionics of Babangida’s eight-year rule, it sidestepped some basic realities that Nigerians had to grapple with within this period. Of a truth, IBB was one of Nigeria’s smartest rulers. As against the Bola Tinubu government which is being clever by half in its lickspittling for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Babangida literally retreated when Nigeria roared against his decision to accept IMF’s multi-billion-dollar financial aid to cushion the economy.
Babangida’s economic programmes, especially the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), have been adjudged to be the beginning of the obliteration of the Nigerian middle class. That class was a major anvil of the Nigerian economy with its features of sophistication. SAP obliterated this class and also led to violence in the polity. Some of these were inter and intra-ethnic violence, religious uprisings like the 1991 Katsina and Bauchi riots, the Zango-Kataf riots of 1992 and the Ogoni crisis which later snowballed into the execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa under Sani Abacha. IBB’s ECOWAS Peace Keeping Force (ECOMOG) in Liberia had Nigeria propitiate billions of Naira to a non-existing god of cooperation in West Africa while also constituting a massive drain on the economy.
Of all these, Babangida’s handling of the political transition programme of his administration would seem to have inflicted the hugest pain whose hurt has refused to disappear from the Nigerian backbone. This makes Chapter 12 of his memoir, which comes under the title “Transition to Civil Rule and the June 12 Saga” the most contentious of the autobiography. Therein, IBB made spirited efforts to explain his clear-mindedness and intention of bequeathing a civilian government to Nigerians. Data on the ground however point to a self-vaunting ambition for life rule. He started off by rationalising his government’s political agenda, beginning with the political bureau. The more he explained June 12, the more he revealed gaping holes fraught with his demonstrable intention to transmute into a civilian president. His romance with diarchy is a clear example.
The above got him a harvest of dead and dislocated Nigerians. South west became the graveyard of recorded and unrecorded casualties. I clearly recall one of the incidents aftermath of the June 12 election fiasco in Lagos where the death of 75 people was recorded. Gen Sani Abacha, the secretary of defence and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, had to summon Michael Otedola, the civilian governor of Lagos state, over the violence. Nigeria subsequently became an ungovernable state with soldiers deployed on the streets of Lagos and other southwest cities.
Babangida, in a national broadcast which was his first statement on the voided June 12 presidential election, rather than the ambivalent portrayal he made of himself in his autobiography, rationalised the annulment of the election. He had said: “It is true that the presidential election was generally seen to be free, fair and peaceful” but in the same vein, went into a long list of reasons he claimed his government annulled the election.
During the twilight of his rule, with the June 12 fiasco becoming a whirlwind, it was as if Babangida was shopping for justifications for the annulment of the election, right, left and centre. One of these, he said, was that some military officers had sworn that Abiola would be president over their dead bodies. He then glibly called for a new election which would still lead to the handing over of power on August 27, 1993 and set new criteria for eligibility to contest. The whirlwind eventually swept him off, with him making a quieter admittance that he was “stepping aside” from power.
A Journey In Service, while collating some of the events above, attempted to rationalise Babangida’s decisions for taking fatal decisions of state but the rationalisations fell face flat, and fatally, too. For instance, he attempted to state that he was not a power-besotting ruler, which was a wrong self-appraisal. As he retreated to Minna in August 1993, palpable fears hovered in the polity that he would yet take over the reins of office of Nigerian president in the shortest time. On August 15, 2006, in an interview he granted the Financial Times, he gave an inkling of his intention to fulfil this fear. He had vaguely told the newspaper that in 2007, he would run for office “under the banner of the Nigerian people”. Less than three months after, specifically on November 8, 2006, he showed up to pick the party nomination form of the PDP which the then chairman, Ahmadu Alli, personally issued him. Not long after, IBB timidly fled like a frightened cat, from his aspiration, citing a reason people found untenable. He had said that his withdrawal was due to a “moral dilemma” because the younger brother of Shehu Yar-Adua, his late military boss, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, was also in the race. The speculation was however that he scampered away for fear of electoral disgrace. Again, in September 2010, the retired general expressed the desire to run for the 2011 presidential election but withdrew the intention almost immediately.
The book is also a fatal deconstruction of a Babangida whose heroism and valour were almost a legend. It would have been better if Babangida had continued playing the ostrich on June 12 by not talking about it at all. Nigerians, and indeed the world, would have continued to be beguiled by the facade they had of a tough hombre Babangida. With this, Babangida would have gone to his grave with the impression of a man of valour. Recall that, at some point in his rule, he had told a news magazine that he loved dreaded military generals, Shaka and Hannibal. Shaka the Zulu was a 19th-century general often depicted with a long throwing assegai and heavy shield. Hannibal was also a Carthaginian military general and statesman who led the forces of Carthage against the Roman Republic. When the interviewers reminded Babangida that both were ruthless and dreaded, he merely flashed his gap tooth in a weird grin.
What we have in A Journey In Service is a pusillanimous army general that didn’t resemble the picture of General Babangida we had. The general in that book, on the outward, merely wears the epaulette of a valiant four-star general but was a buck-passer. How does the world reconcile the picture of a Babangida who fought valiantly in the civil war and got wounded in the process; one who smilingly and fearlessly almost disarmed Lt- Col Bukar Suka Dimka inside the Radio Nigeria studio; who had the steely heart to order the execution of his best friend, Mamman Vatsa, now selling himself in the portraiture of a Sani Abacha bootlicker? The book is a portrait of a military general who didn’t want to die after Gideon Orkar fiercely dealt him a mortal blow inside Dodan Barracks. It appears to every reader, back-grounded by what we heard in April 1990 that, though IBB refuted it, after his rescue by Abacha in the Orkar coup, a blood oath made between the duo to hand over power to the Kanuri-born psychopath. All the fatal decisions Babangida later took were predicated on this assumption. He was sore afraid of Abacha and his sadism and in the process, cost Nigerians their lives in their thousands. Again, this vicariously triggered the disequilibrium Nigeria witnessed post-June 12 and IBB was also responsible for the trillions of Naira Nigeria wasted. Babangida can also be said to be vicariously responsible for the ghastly rule of Abacha, the many people he killed and the stagnation of reason during his time in government.
That chapter on June 12 drowned the other revealing and intellectually stimulating chapters of the book which are historical nuggets. Unfortunately, virtually all the dramatis personae of the election are now deceased. Did Babangida wait for this auspicious moment to unleash his revisionist chapter of his memoir? Or, was it merely to make peace with history and his creator when he passes? Whatever it is, that chapter was poor artistry. It is akin to eccentric millionaire, Kester Weidmann’s weird attempt to make a corpse walk, an absurd fabrication of sainthood for himself. Thirty two years after, the anti-hero of that grisly political drama which almost splintered Nigeria and was on the verge of tossing the country into a huge internecine war, chose to canonize himself.
However, A Journey In Service has shown the path of a road to travel wide open to travellers in government. Babangida traced his geneology from grandfather, Malam Ibrahim, a prominent Muslim cleric and wanderer who migrated from Sokoto to Kano and Kontagora who settled in Wushishi. He also wrote about how Ibrahim married his pretty wife, Halima. He traced the family roots up to his father, Malam Muhammadu Badamasi, ostensibly to explain how he got his middle name, ‘Badamasi’ which many confused with ‘Gbadamosi’ a Yoruba name. Now, or in the future, we will expect President Tinubu, VP Kashim Shettima’s and others’ autobiographies as well. They must all write their memoirs so that we can indeed meet the characters who govern us.
Lastly, many have disdained the gathering in Abuja for the book launch and the huge billions of Naira announced as donations. No one remembered to even offer a minute silence for the dead of and from June 12. The gathering has been explained off as elite regrouping and this class’ clear disconnect from the everyday issues of the average Nigerian. It should serve as a lesson to the Nigerian people. In Osun State now, power-mongers are seeking state capture, the same way IBB sought to, over three decades ago. The APC is baring its fangs, using Bola Tinubu’s hold on federal power as Malacca-cane with which to grope in the dark. The Attorney General of the Federation is rudely descending into the Osun arena with partisan and needless threat laced in the garb of a harmless advice, while the IGP is flexing his muscles with impunity.
As they all gathered by the feet of IBB last Thursday, they should have learned a fundamental lesson from the senescent General: that it is only an allotted time that power-wielders use; no one wears the apron of power forever until it becomes a tattered rag (Igba l’onigba nlo; enikan o lo ile aye gbo). It speaks to the temporality and ephemerality of the power they use to harass Nigerians.
[OPINION] Nigerian political parties without leaders - Dele Sobowale
“A group without a leader is a mob” – Anonymous, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 82. “All political parties die at last of swallowing their own lies” – Dr John Arbuthnot, 1667-1735, VBQ p 191.
Ask anybody who is the leader of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, or the Labour Party; and you would receive different answers. These are the two leading opposition parties. Yet, they are effectively leaderless. Everybody in the world knows who the leader of the Conservative Party in Britain. She is our own Nigerian-born Kemi Badenoch. We might not like what she says; but, worldwide, she is more highly esteemed that any politician in Nigeria today; mainly, because she will never decamp to the ruling party for personal gain. The abnormality can never happen in the UK or India or Canada. There are some Made-In-Nigeria political atrocities which, being endemic, have guaranteed that good governance, which is indispensable to development, will continue to elude us.
Just in case the reader goes away with the impression that the ruling party had been exonerated, permit me to ask: who is the leader of the All Progressives Congress, APC? I know the President – Bola Tinubu. Ordinarily, he should be regarded as the leader. But, some of the most disgruntled political elements, especially in the North, are APC members. So badly is the party divided, the Chairman, Ganduje, has been afraid to call a meeting of the National Executive Committee. That is bad enough. The most alarming aspect of the APC problem lies in the lack of total support for Tinubu and even open hostility, by people holding APC party cards.
Important Bills
“There is nothing worse than for a leader to look behind him and find nobody is following” – US President Lyndon Johnson. Tinubu is not without followers; far from it. However, there are several types of followers. What happened to Jonathan should teach him a lesson – going forward. Most Nigerian politicians are political mercenaries; they go where food is ready and leave when there is threat to the food supply. Right now, northern political leaders are confronted with an APC in which their financial interests are seriously threatened. In less than two years of Tinubu government, the adverse changes in their individual and collective circumstances have resulted in a groundswell of demand for the return of the presidency to the North – at all costs.
More than ever, they are prepared to forgive even those who governed very badly. El-Rufai, the immediate past Governor of Kaduna State, offers a good example of current mind of the North. Extremely clever, he knows that blaming the rulers excites the populace more easily than appeals for hope when a country experiences economic hardship. It is all well and good to point to the benefits in the long run if tough measures are taken now. But, the stomach is a rascal. People don’t eat in the long run; they must have food today. And, if that is not possible; somebody must pay for it. The strongest campaigners against the Tinubu government are APC members. Before going into the details of how they intend to sabotage the leadership of the APC, it is necessary to point out that they have already scored a major victory.
Tax Bills Gutted
“Building half a bridge is the most worthless investment a government can make” – An international bridge-builder with over 300 bridges to his credit. Granted, Tinubu and the framers of the Tax Reform Bills committed a blunder by not consulting widely enough and building a winning coalition before presenting the bill to the National Assembly, NASS. Still, the fact that the first groups to openly reject them were those dominated by APC spoke volumes about how much control the President had over his own party.
The Nigeria Governors Forum, at first, not only turned them down; the most vocal opponent of the bills was Professor Zulum of Borno State. Vice President Shetimma, who is from that state, must have been deeply embarrassed. That gesture demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt that the party could not guarantee the support of its own Governors. Similarly, at the NASS, the fiercest war against the bills was waged by APC Senators led by Ndume. That provided the northern elite the opportunity to rally the people around them. Incidentally, anybody following the affair closely would have noticed that most members of the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, the Northern Elders Forum, NEF, as well as various youth organisations, who were up in arms, had not even read the bills before taking positions.
Once the bills were pronounced anti-North by the early responders, the majority simply fell in line. It was the classic case of giving a dog a bad name in order to hang it. The very few northern FG supporters kept their distance; they remained in Abuja out of fear of reprisals by lynch mobs. The Daily Trust, the most reliable political weather vane, to which I subscribe, published everyday stinging rebukes of the bills as a plot by Lagos State to colonise the North. It was as bad as that. Tension was lowered when amendments were made to the bills which partly mollified the Governors. Despite that, trust had been eroded. Northerners, who provided the winning margin, now feel like the man who escaped being beheaded by a beneficiary but lost his cap. The broad attitude now is: never again. Millions of those who voted in 2023 have turned their backs on the apparent leader of their party. The obvious question is: why have they not departed? The short answer is: money and time.
The Enemies Within
“Better a declared enemy than a doubtful ally” – Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821.
Tinubu should thank God for Atiku and Obi. They are declared political opponents, but, might not be harmful on account of the mobs which have seized control of the PDP and Labour Party. The fellows who should be giving him sleepless nights are APC members; who are no longer loyal to him, but, who recognise that he is still in control of the kitchen. They intend to stay; continue to collect their shares of the national cake and stab him in the back at the right time. El-Rufai is naïve and too emotional for his own good. Yet, he is better than the pretenders who are working quietly to sabotage the APC and Tinubu.
Some of them are in Aso Rock. Obviously, even the APC is in muted disarray. Unlike the other poor parties, money has made it possible to sound-proof the edifice called APC; neighbours don’t hear the noise – which is very much there. Thus, if you ask APC members privately who is your leader, you might be shocked to receive the sort of reply one “party stalwart” gave me in Lagos last week: “We no longer have a leader. That old man should go home. See the mess he has created in Lagos State.” Tinubu might not realise it; but, he needs rock solid support from the South-West, especially, Lagos. He also must work on the rest of the South. Most people in the North have already made up their minds; this government is not for them. There is danger ahead.
Men, Money and Madness
“Power and money, do, of course, drive people crazy. So, why shouldn’t people also gain power and wealth through being crazy?” – Saul Bellow, 1915-2005, VBQ p 195. America, once called God’s Own Country, but not any longer, has two crazy men running the government. They have power and money and don’t care what anybody says. Americans used to pretend that nobody is above the law. But, they shamelessly elected the most lawless person ever to run for President.
Just two weeks ago, Donald Trump defied a court order; and nobody in Congress said a word. If Tinubu had done that, an American media would have called him all sorts of names and our National Assembly, NASS, bush men. That is understandable. Tinubu is not crazy; and people in our NASS are not under a spell. They have faults; but, not those needing to be remedied by bringing straight jackets. Mark my words, Americans will wake up before the end of Trump’s term to discover that even a giant alone can be extremely vulnerable.
Regina vs Chika drama takes over the internet
From the 2Baba divorce saga, we are now into stories and speculations about what is happening in beautiful actress, Regina Daniel’s life. It began with oh! Regina has just deactivated her Instagram account and next, she stepped out without her ring. That got social media users sensing trouble in her marriage as the 6th wife. Now, this is where I must say that I don’t fancy the life of celebrities at all. No privacy!
So far, so much has been blown open and written about the actress within a short time. One of her colleagues, Chika Ike was placed at the centre of the entire drama. She was accused of trying to make her way into pa Ned’s life as the 7th wife. They said Regina isn’t okay with that. Because of that, many people are criticising her for deactivating her Instagram account based on mere rumour. Trust me, Bloggers have been on a rampage since the rumour started. This could honestly be the reason she deactivated that account; fear of backlash. Nigerians can be mean sometimes. One of the bloggers posted a statement allegedly made by Chika on the matter. “Ned isn’t the father of my child. I’m not about to be anyone’s 7th wife! Polygamy isn’t for me. I’ve been pregnant for months now and no one had a clue until I announced it. Keep digging and coming up with your false news. I don’t care. My privacy is my peace and no one can unsettle me.” Then, why share glamorous maternity pictures online if you wanted it private?
Well, there’s also a statement said to be from the Director of Communications, office of Sen. Ned Nwoko, making the rounds on social media, dismissing the rumour about Chika’s involvement in the family.
If you ask me, what’s the fuse all about if the man in charge wishes to get a seventh wife? Was there an undertaking that he will stop at number six?
Whether the gossip about possible ‘trouble in paradise’ is true or not, let’s just dive into some comments on social media. Netizens seem to know too much.
@bellaTheBomba wrote, “Chika Ike gave birth for Ned Nwoko and Regina has deactivated her Instagram.” This netizen seems to know a lot. Hmmnnn!
West @flygodT replied, “I’m just surprised she actually has feelings for him.”
Ifeayichukwu @ Myka_veli commented, “I don’t understand women at all. Regina Daniels and Chika Ike had the opportunity to choose the most eligible bachelors in Nigeria owing to their status as celebrities plus they’re good looking. Why choose an old man with 5 wives over young bobos?”
Olucih @Phatbabeluu wrote, “Regina Daniels would have made good money on her own without attaching herself to that grandpa. She had great prospects.”
Brooda John @ Nigeriangod wrote, “Chika Is the real senior wife cos she has been there long before Ned married other wives. She didn’t want to marry him then cos she said she had to return to school for her master and establish other business. So, Ned sent her to Harvard University.” Really?
Morris Monye commented, “As far back as 2012, if you visited Ned Nwoko at his country home near Onicha-Ugbo, you would see Chika Ike around. She has always been his woman.”
[Vanguard]
North needs alliance with south-south to save Nigeria, says el-Rufai
Nasir el-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna, says the north must forge an alliance with the south-south to “save” Nigeria.
Speaking on Friday during a condolence visit to the family of Edwin Clark, the late elder statesman and Niger Delta advocate, who died on February 17, el-Rufai said the north and south-south had a strong historical political partnership.
“In the 60s, 70s and 80s, the traditional political partners of the north was the south-south. Let us not forget that. Let us go back to that. Let us save this country because it really requires saving. We need a rescue operation,” el-Rufai said.
Ahead of the 2027 general election, there have been talks of coalitions and alliances with politicians across opposition parties holding “strategic meetings”.
El-Rufai, who was led to the condolence visit by Atiku Abubakar, said the former vice-president deserves credit for spearheading economic reforms during the Olusegun Obasanjo administration.
Abubakar was vice-president to former president Olusegun Obasanjo government from 1999 to 2007.
The former governor has been meeting members of opposition parties in recent weeks.
In January, el-Rufai met with Hamza Al-Mustapha, ex-aide to late Sani Abacha; Shehu Gabam, national chairman of the Social Democratic Party (PDP); and other politicians in the nation’s capital.
Segun Showunmi, a former spokesperson of the Atiku Abubakar campaign organisation, said the meeting was to strategise ahead of the 2027 elections.
There have been speculations that el-Rufai has been working to pitch his political tent elsewhere.
Last month, el-Rufai said the distance between him and the All Progressives Congress (APC) is “widening”.
[TheCable]
Obasanjo opted to leave Army when asked to succeed Murtala ―IBB
•Narrates how he disarmed Dimka during 1976 coup
FORMER Military President, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, has disclosed that former President Olusegun Obasanjo opted to leave the Army after he was asked to succeed former Head of State, Murtala Muhammed, following the failure of the 1976 coup that claimed Murtala’s life.
IBB made this disclosure in his autobiography, A Journey in Service while giving accounts of the events that followed the attempt to forcefully take over the Murtala’s military administration by a group of mutineers led by Lieutenant-Colonel Bukar Dimka.
Following Murtala’s death, IBB, in chapter 5 of his book entitled “The Murtala Muhammed Years,” narrated that the Supreme Military Council met the following day to discuss the succession plan but the council was divided over the choice of Obasanjo and Theophilus Danjuma, both of whom, at the time, were Lieutenant-Generals and most senior military officer.
IBB disclosed that though the pendulum of the SMC swung in Danjuma’s direction, he rejected the offer and suggested that Obasanjo, who was Murtala’s deputy and a ‘senior’ Lieutenant-General, should succeed Murtala.
According to him, Obasanjo, instead, opted to retire from the Army to pave the way for Danjuma’s ascension as Head of State, but such move led to a stalemate as Danjuma rejected the suggestion, insisting that Obasanjo should succeed the late Head of State.
IBB narrated on page 99 of his book: “The next day, the SMC met in Lagos to pick a successor to General Muhammed. We knew it would be either General Obasanjo or General Danjuma since, as Lieutenant-Generals, they were the most senior. As I recall, the pendulum swung in favour of General Danjuma at the start of the deliberations. Everyone present, including Obasanjo, thought Danjuma should take over.
“But somehow, Danjuma cast his lot with Obasanjo, insisting that as Muhammed’s deputy and a ‘senior’ Lieutenant-General, Obasanjo should succeed Murtala Muhammed. Obasanjo refused and offered, if I recall accurately, to retire from the Army to enable Danjuma to emerge as Head of State. There appeared to be a momentary stalemate. But that soon faded away. Faced with the insistence of Danjuma, everyone caved in, and Obasanjo accepted the challenge to succeed Murtala.
“With the question of the Head of State settled, the choice of substantive Deputy to Obasanjo and Chief of Staff (Supreme Headquarters) had to be resolved. I don’t recall that it was tabled before the SMC. But I suspect that General Danjuma, as Chief of Army Staff and ‘de facto’ deputy to Obasanjo during those early days, decided, presumably after consultations, to name Lt-Col. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua as Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters. And in an exercise that would have rattled a few within the military, especially those senior to him, Yar’Adua was promptly promoted to Brigadier and, subsequently, Major-General.”
The elder stateman also narrated how he disarmed late Dimka and other mutineers who had taken over the Radio House, adding that in the ensuing gunfight, Dimka escaped but his aide-de-camp, 2nd Lt Garba, was killed among other casualties.
“Meanwhile, I returned to General Danjuma to give him a report of my encounter with Dimka. Danjuma was furious. He ordered me back to the Radio House with a reiteration of his earlier instructions to ‘flush Dimka out of place immediately.
“I returned to Radio House with Chris Ugokwe, better equipped and prepared. By now, we had been joined by, among others, Mike Otuwa, James Ojokojo, John Shagaya and Jack Iketubosin.
“But first, I had to reach out to my friend and classmate, Sani Sami, who commanded the Brigade of Guards, to handle a difficult assignment. The Brigade of Guards’ barracks provided easy access to the Radio House. But again, I had to be careful since I wasn’t sure whether the Brigade was still loyal to the government.
“Sani Sami and I consulted and agreed that there should be minimum destruction. And that we would do what we were taught as cadets in situations involving a civilian population to ensure that civilians got out of the way and didn’t get injured.
“Once that was done, we moved in, cordoned off the area and engaged the mutineers in a gun battle. There were casualties in the ensuing armed confrontation, including Dimka’s ADC, 2nd Lt Garba. Also, one of the other vital plotters, Major Ibrahim Rabo, was arrested by Major Yomi Williams as he tried to escape and was promptly taken to the Bonny camp for interrogation. But, somehow, Dimka, quite inexplicably to this day, managed to escape from the scene unharmed,” IBB recalled.
He added that “Later that evening, the Federal government announced that the coup attempt had been quashed and declared seven days of national mourning in Murtala’s honour. The next day, February 14, General Muhammed was buried in Kano at a ceremony witnessed by thousands of mourners and members of the SMC, including Major-General Bisalla, who would later be implicated in the coup attempt.
“The national outpouring of grief and support following the assassination of Murtala was unprecedented. In his short six months in office, Murtala Muhammed had become a folk hero, endearing himself to many. Angry, grief-stricken students of the Universities of Ibadan, Benin and Lagos held violent street demonstrations in protest against his killers.
“Organised Labour movements, civil society organisations and even market women issued statements of solidarity for the Murtala Muhammed administration. Afterwards, the GOC of the 1 Division in Kaduna, Major-General Alani Akinrinade, issued a strong statement of support from Lagos for Murtala, and virtually all other military installations in the country followed suit by disassociating themselves from the coup.”
[Nigerian Tribune]
[OPINION] Don’t Urinate On Their Graves! - Wole Olaoye
All animals are not equal. If you doubt it, attempt to replicate General Ibrahim Babangida’s actions and inactions over the years – and see where you’ll end up.
First shoot your way into power. Confront civil society with both an iron fist and a toothy smile. Be a military Janus – on one side Santa Claus, on the other Belgium’s Leopold II. Then, seeing the prodigious talent and charisma Providence has bestowed on you, lock yourself up in a social laboratory and, like the scientist Frankenstein, create a new serpentine democracy which crawls a little to the right and a little to the left, eventually threatening to swallow you.
The June 12 monster! In what book is it written that a date could swallow an emperor? Run! As a cat with so many lives, you call it a day and retire into comfort. Didn’t God Himself rest on the seventh day?
Your coterie of eulogists and beneficiaries add salt to the society’s injury: They canonise you. “Saint Ibrahim invented the new Nigeria! It’s just unfortunate that negative forces did not allow him to conclude the good work he had started”. In the pantheon of Nigeria’s carpetbaggers who watered the tree of autocracy with the blood of fellow citizens, they say, “Saint Ibrahim is better than the other goggle-wearing gnome. We can confirm that Ibrahim doesn’t eat infants.”
In your hibernation, you continue to enjoy the status of a major shareholder in Naija Turn-By-Turn Plc. Your castle is a Mecca to which every political pilgrim journeys. And then, 32 years after the crime of June 12, you re-emerge to take responsibility for everything that happened under your watch. Except that it still wasn’t your fault but the machination of that goggled one!
Forgivable?
So, you knew all these years that MKO Abiola was the winner of the June 12, 1993 presidential election and you waited for 32 years, after social strife, a near civil war, death of thousands of fellow citizens, destruction of careers, social polarisation and – tellingly – the death of the goggled one you fingered?
Now who is going to defend Afajápemó (he who owns dogs that hunt down rabbits for him)?
I believe in forgiveness. But a penitent person at confession shouldn’t be dribbling the priest. If a sinner says, “It was my hand, not me, that slapped the complainant”, who shall we hold responsible? Can forgiveness be possible or efficacious unless the compunction is heartfelt?
And in this case, what is the equivalent of restitution? Resurrection of the president-elect whose mandate was embezzled by a few gangsters? Saying sorry to the Abiola family and the relatives of Gen. Yar’Adua, Chief Alfred Rewane, Alhaja Suliat Adedeji, Bagauda Kaltho and thousands of others sent to their untimely graves between 1993 and 1998? Repairing, through some social alchemy, the bridges of ethnic amity destroyed by the whole saga? Recall of military officers who lost their commission because they chose to stand by the truth?
I confess that I do not have the answers. Perhaps, this poet does:
Grab a plate and throw it on the floor.
Okay, done!!
Did it break?
Yes it did.
Now say sorry to it.
Sorry!
Did it go back to how it was before?
Sometimes, sorry can’t fix everything.
Some broken lives cannot be the same again.
Broken Lives
And, thanks to the unnamed compatriot who Nigerianised the verse after Babangida launched his much-awaited book, “A Journey In Service” (thanks for sharing, Prof. Akin Onigbinde).
The lives you tore with your blatant lies, wrong accusations, negative criticisms and Gossips of hatred for no just reason might not be the same again.
Mind how you treat people.
The Life you didn’t Create.
Don’t be the one to destroy it.
…Apologies alone, and then a haulage of over N30 billion to Minna?
For a Library of Infamy?
How fair? How just?
Indeed, all animals are not equal. In normal life, a capo doesn’t return to the crime scene to hug the klieg lights and rake in billions of naira. If you’re not in their exclusive club, don’t delude yourself. Lesson: Some men are above the law. Sad. But true. Onlookers can only throw bricks or flowers.
Human rights lawyer Dele Farotimi, in a lamentation titled, “MKO on my mind” published on his X handle reacted thus:
“To die for a people devoid of memory, is to be killed over and over, again and again. In a place inhabited by the conscious, IBB would not dare to show his face in public. But in the crime scene that doubles as our country, having been succeeded by even more villainous ruiners, Badamasi is installed in the seat of the statesman.”
Peaceful repose to Abiola, his wife Kudirat and all those who were cut down during the June 12 struggle. It is because of their collective sacrifices that the rest of us are still able to face the challenges of nation building together today. But let no one urinate on their graves.
Pa Edwin Clark Exits
It was as if the two most vocal grand old men of Nigerian politics conspired to take their departure flights to eternity within the same week. The death of Pa Edwin Clark shortly after that of his bosom friend and fellow political gladiator, Pa Ayo Adebanjo, sent shock waves round the country. If the Lord had tarried awhile, Clark would have clocked 100 years on May 25, 2027.
Clark devoted his life to the struggle of the people of the Niger Delta and the cause of his Ijaw ethnic nationality. Although he fiercely manned his corner and disparaged all those milking his native land at the expense of the environment, he was at heart a pan-Nigerian nationalist. His political consciousness had been sharpened in the 50s when he joined the Zikist movement and built a persona etched in solid courage.
If Chief Clark had not existed, the dehumanising situation in the Niger Delta would have invented him because his people were in a dire need of his kind of leadership when he showed up combining his skill as a lawyer with his experiences as a civil servant and local activist.
He always believed that he was a child of destiny: “I remember that after primary education, I wanted to go to Government College Ughelli as far back as 1945. When I went for the interview, I was told that I was too old and was advised to go to the Government Teachers Training College, Abraka. When I got there, they said I was too young!”
But the three Clark brothers made a success of their different callings — one as a civil servant, later permanent secretary and Minister of Foreign Affairs. Another became a world famous professor of English while he, a lawyer, went on to serve as a state commissioner and later as a federal minister.
With the demise of Chief Clark, the challenge ahead of the people of the Niger Delta region is how to replace the trusted warhorse with another accomplished activist who would take the struggle of his people as his life’s work. The fact that Clark’s life will always be used as the benchmark of leadership will not make finding his replacement any easier.
[OPINION] The Confounding Odyssey of the 2025 Budget - Waziri Adio
Federal Government’s 2025 budget continued its fascinating journey last week. On 18th February, the National Assembly rescinded the budget that it had passed just five days earlier but was yet to be transmitted for presidential assent. It was a minor adjustment. To correct ‘some errors’, the legislators simply (and swiftly) re-assigned N500 billion from capital expenditure to recurrent expenditure. The other broad categories remain the same, and the size of the budget stays at N54.99 trillion, they said.
The adjustment is historic nonetheless. A rescinded budget has not been part of our lexicon in more than 25 years of this republic. So, this is another milestone recorded by the 2025 budget in its storied journey. A clean copy of the budget has not been sighted, and the approved appropriation bill is yet to be signed by the president. My sense is that we may not have seen the last of the twists and turns of this peculiar budget.
After my last week intervention on the 2025 budget process, someone sent me a copy of the House of Representatives’ supplementary order paper which contains the highlights of the approved budget. The 15-page document provides answers to a few of the questions that I posed last week. But most of the puzzles remain. Maybe the full budget (which typically runs into more than 2000 pages) will provide further illumination. However, the highlights throw up fresh questions of their own.
Let’s start with where some clarity has been provided. I had wondered how the legislators managed to reduce the provision for debt service to N14.32 trillion from N16.33 trillion initially proposed by the executive. As shown in the order paper, the legislators approved N7.19 trillion for domestic debt, N6.75 trillion for foreign debt and N377.30 billion for the sinking fund, whereas the president had proposed N8.20 trillion for domestic debt, N7.69 trillion for foreign debt and N430.27 billion for the sinking fund. A comparison of the two sets of figures shows how the legislators were able to reduce debt service by N2 trillion. But it is still not clear if they did this unilaterally or in consultation with the executive. Also, there is still the need to understand the basis of such a significant reduction, and if this will have immediate or future repercussions or not. Are we pushing some due obligations down the line or was the initial debt service estimate bloated?
I had also asked how the legislators were able to prune statutory transfers to N3.65 trillion from the N4.44 trillion proposed by the president. Statutory transfers are meant to be somewhat protected—some of them are fixed percentages of certain revenue handles. The order paper shows that the legislators increased and reduced some of the proposed sums under statutory transfers and are still able to slash almost N800 billion or about 18% off the original proposal. In a way, this is the surgical approach that the legislators should be taking to appropriation. But cutting the fat is not an occupation they fancy much.
The National Assembly did not increase or reduce its own statutory transfer of N344.85 billion. Or so it appears. But there is a N170 billion under capital supplementation for service wide vote for the National Assembly. So, there is about a 50% increase in the budget of the National Assembly without an obvious increase. You have to go several rows down to see where it is neatly nestled. By the way, this service wide vote was not part of the original proposal by the president. A legitimate question is how come legislators now need service wide votes? All expenditures by the National Assembly should be handled from its statutory transfer, except for some key capital projects that fall within the remit of the Federal Capital Development Authority (FCDA).
It is noteworthy that the legislators kept untouched the statutory transfers to the Basic Health Care Provision Fund (N298 billion), the National Human Rights Commission (N8 billion) and the Public Complaints Commission (N14 billion). That is good. But they reduced the statutory transfers for NASENI from N298 billion to N248 billion and for UBEC from N596 billion to N496 billion. However, they increased the transfers to National Judicial Council from N341 billion to N521 billion and for INEC from N40 billion to N140 billion. I am sure they have good explanations for these adjustments, but it will be good to know the basis of their decisions, including alignment with statutory percentages of certain revenue handles.
The most interesting part, for me, is that they took a scalpel to the statutory transfers for all the zonal development commissions. They did the reduction in this order: Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) from N776.53 billion to N626.53 billion; North East Development Commission (NEDC) from N290.99 billion to N240.99 billion; North West Development Commission (NWDC) from N585.93 billion to N145.61 billion; the South West Development Commission (SWDC) from N498.40 billion to N140 billion; and the South East Development Commission from N341.27 billion to N140 billion. Equal opportunity reduction, in a sense, though it will be good to know if the reductions are in alignment with expected fall in the attached revenues.
But it gets more interesting. The legislators allocated statutory transfers to two development commissions that were not in the original proposal by the executive. This brings to seven the number of zonal development commissions provided for in the 2025 budget. The North Central Development Commission (NCDC) and the South South Development Commission (SSDC) got N140 billion apiece.
Please note that the NCDC bill was signed into law by President Bola Tinubu on 4th February 2025. The president presented the budget proposal on 18th December 2024, which rightly had no provision for NCDC. The president sent a letter to the National Assembly on 5th February 2025, where he proposed additional revenue and expenditure of N4.53 trillion. This was a day after he signed the NCDC bill. It is doubtful that he included NCDC in the breakdown. It is possible NCDC was included in that list or it is possible that the legislators exercised their initiative or in consultation with the executive. In any case, this will be another record: a commission receiving budgetary allocation barely a week after the signing of its bill.
But that is not as record-breaking as the case of the SSDC. It is not clear how the SSDC is significantly different from NDDC (apart from that its coverage will be strictly for the South South zone, and not for all oil producing states, as NDDC covers Abia, Imo and Ondo that are from other zones). But that is not the point. As at today, SSDC is not a legal entity. The SSDC bill has not been signed into law. I think I understand the political consideration at play: development commissions have become the latest ploy for sharing the rapidly shrinking nation cake. So, everyone wants their slice of the cake before we get to the last crumb.
But it is quite odd that the National Assembly will make appropriation for an entity that does not exist in law yet. Is this anticipatory appropriation and is it allowed and what is the danger inherent in taking this kind of liberty? A neater approach would have been for the executive to be encouraged to bring a supplementary budget after the SSDC bill is signed into law. We are normalising many abnormalities, from the executive undertaking major projects without appropriation and with no questions asked by those with the powers of the purse to the legislators themselves making appropriation for an entity whose existence is not yet legally consummated. The persistent mockery being made of the budget process is simply astounding.
Another odd entry revealed in the order paper is the provision of N400 billion for light rail projects in four states: N150 billion to Kano State; N100 billion to Kaduna State; N100 billion to Ogun State; and N50 billion to Lagos State. Light rails are within cities and are thus state projects. There are strategically important federal rail lines crying for modernisation and expansion. Those should be the priority and the focus of the Federal Government. Yes, an argument can be made for the need for FG to support the development of critical infrastructure in key states, and this can include urban rail projects. But this should start with a clear and well-articulated policy framework that provides the rationale, the format, the eligibility criteria and the process for such an intervention.
Such a major policy decision should not just show up in the budget. For now, the allocation for light rail appears like a political settlement scheme or a belated attempt at regional balancing. They were not in the initial budget proposal by the president. Most likely, the Federal Government decided to support light rail in four states after the hoopla generated by the N146.14 billion included in the proposed budget of the Ministry of Transport as the counterpart funding by MOFI to the Lagos Greenline Metro Rail project.
But even the attempt at balancing falls flat. There is no prior document that articulates why the Federal Government can provide such a support, the criteria for selecting qualifying states, how states can apply to be considered, and if this will go round all the states or just a number of states per zone. On account of the haphazard approach, the discussion, even in the parliament, has moved from the propriety of a federal ministry providing funding to a state project to the slippery slope of deliberate neglect/marginalisation of certain zones by the Federal Government. This is unfortunate and could have been avoided if this had been more thoughtfully considered.
There are few other things peeking out. Even after the legislators rescinded the 2025 budget on Tuesday, capital expenditure still has the highest allocation. The N23.44 trillion allocated to capital is 42.63% of the budget. This is not just the highest amount but the highest percentage of the budget allocated to capital expenditure since 1999. Ordinarily, this should be celebrated, but certain things do not add up. There appears to be a deliberate attempt to big up the capital component of the budget. There are many items under capital supplementation that it will take a real stretch to capture as capital, except you are using the loose definition of working capital.
Some of these items include allocations to student loan scheme, consumer credit fund, refund to TETFUND, transfer to HYPPADEC (another development commission), national poverty reduction with growth strategy etc. It is noteworthy that capital supplementation (a recent and growing category in our budgets) got a 131% boost. The president proposed a total of N3.18 trillion as capital supplementation when he laid the budget before the parliamentarians on 18th December 2024 and the legislators approved N6.37 trillion for the same category on 13th February 2025. There are many items under capital that should invite greater scrutiny but which the legislators left untouched, including allocations to a hospital for NIA (N238.05 billion), for a building for FIRS (N50 billion) and for the take-off grant of a school of governance at NIPSS (N887.75 million).
Then, there is the issue of budget deficit. The math here is simply not ‘math-ing,’ as the younger ones say. The president mentioned a deficit of N13.08 trillion in his budget speech. The proposed budget on the website of the Budget Office of the Federation puts the budget deficit and the aggregate financing items at N13.39 trillion. The order paper containing the highlights of the approved budget maintains the deficit and the aggregate financing items at N13.39 trillion. But the National Assembly publicly announced a budget deficit of N13.08 trillion.
Apart from two different amounts featuring for the same items in different documents/pronouncements, I suspect the deficit is understated. And here, I am not talking of the eventual deficit in case ambitious revenue projection underperforms. The total revenue that can be publicly identified amounts to N40.88 trillion (the N36.35 trillion in the proposed budget—which included revenue of GOEs— and the N4.53 trillion additional revenue, which I am yet to see in the highlights in the order paper). If the total expenditure is N54.99 trillion and the total revenue is N40.88 trillion, then the deficit should be N14.11 trillion. So, there is a N1.03 trillion hanging somewhere. It is possible the full budget will clear the air, or this may be another error to be corrected or rescinded.
But the really intriguing part is that the National Assembly stated categorically (even when it doesn’t have to) that the N13.08 trillion deficit represents 1.52% of GDP. This contradicts the position in President Tinubu’s speech when he presented the budget proposal. “A total of N13.08 trillion, or 3.89% of GDP, will make up the budget deficit,” the president said on 18th December 2025. It is important to underscore that the president and the parliament are keeping to the same amount as the budget deficit for 2025: N13.08 trillion. So, it is still a mystery how the National Assembly arrived at a deficit-to-GDP of 1.52% but the president put the same at 3.89% of GDP.
As I stated last week, N13.08 trillion can only be 1.52% of GDP if Nigeria’s GDP has grown to N860 trillion. This will be a major leap, even with rebasing. The last full-year GDP figure published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is for 2023, and Nigeria’s nominal GDP was N234 trillion. In its October 2024 World Economic Outlook Database, IMF estimates Nigeria’s nominal GDP as N302 trillion in 2024 and as N351 trillion for 2025. If we use IMF’s estimate for 2025, our deficit-to-GDP will be 3.73%. So, it will be good to know where and how the National Assembly derived deficit-to-GDP at 1.52%, which it trumpeted as being within acceptable limit (a major claim, as the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007 stipulates 3% as the cap for Deficit-to-GDP).
If the legislators have been briefed by NBS on the rebased GDP, it is important to question the propriety and the haste by legislators to use data not yet publicly released by the national statistical agency. If the problem is that they mixed up their numbers, we have cause to worry about what else they are mixing up. But it seems to me they know what they are doing: there are games within a game going on here. Such indiscretions and political games chip away the credibility of official data. And that is such a terrible thing.
[OPINION] Babangida’s Long Exhale - Chidi Amuta
Even after three decades of his untidy retreat to his Minna hometown, Babangida never forget the ‘public’ debts he owed to Nigerians. He owed Nigerian history an expose on his turbulent leadership . He owed the Nigerian populace an insight into his personal enigma and enduring charisma. He also owed us a personal perspective on the worrisome things that happened under his watch. Above all things, Babangida owed a personal recompense and reconciliation with Nigeria on the political headache of the June 12 1983 elections.
Through the public outing of his long awaited memoir-A Journey in Service-Babangida has settled nearly all his outstanding liabilities to his fellow citizens. In addition to previously unknown details of ‘what happened’ , he has finally come to a personal resolution of and reconciliation with the outcome of the contentious June 12 election. Abiola won. His election was annulled by Abacha’s hidden hands of limitless power ambition. Nigeria survived. Above all, he (IBB) has survived into ripening old age to look back and tell the story himself. Professional trouble makers and history manglers have been deprived of an opportunity to end the Babangida story in malignant tales.
Three decades is long enough time for a man to exhale after leading a sweltering marathon in Nigeria’s turbulent power waters. It is time enough for actors and spectators to have calmed down and taken a respite . Anger would have turned into resignation. Vengeful partisans would have handed the entire matter over to God in a nation where the divine has the final say in all matters political .
The man of power himself should have reflected on the roads he couldn’t travel and the paths that he and even the angels dreaded to try.
Babangida led us through troubling times and a treacherous landscape of existential problems. The times were hard and the options daunting in every direction. Our treasury was nearly empty as almost all leaders had turned dealers and fled with our common treasure. Our economic dance had no name. Nor could we look money lenders in the face and say: ‘please help a prodigal nation.’
We resolved by public acclaim after nationwide debates to retreat inwards in search of homegrown solutions. Harrowing reform was the name of the only option left. IBB showed us a new path, a hard road never before traveled. A free market economy of citizens chained under martial rule! Capitalism without capital and without freedom , rebuilding an economy under a retreating state and a frightened citizenry,
Babangida has spent three decades and more as one of us. He has watched history roll along. He may have lived through his errors and watched others ride the waves of his triumphs. His ultimate nemesis, Buhari , has come and gone, renaming his major pitfall- June 12- into a historical milestone of political advantage. The nation has learnt new names, new dance steps under new leaders. Wobbly as it is, Nigeria has survived as a democracy.
Despite the passage of time, however, something about Babangida has remained constant. His personal allure, the instant electricity of his name, the countless myths about the kind, gentle and smiling general at once capable of incredible compassion and unequaled humanity but readily credited with unthinkable atrocities. The Machiavellian Prince that left the throne but still elicits love but also compels chilling fear.
Above all, Babangida’s personal attraction and a certain public acknowledgment of his political genius has remained in tact. Politicians seeking national acknowledgment seek him. Those wanting to command access to power levers look for him. Those seeking recognition as political notables pay him homage. Those in want of the magic of political wisdom have made pilgrimage to his Minna home.
His Minna retirement home has remained something of a favourite destination for political pilgrims. Younger political gladiators in search of relevance, older political animals seeking to test their own relevance, regional leaders seeking a national acclaim and audience have gone to seek his blessing. He has remained something of a political oracle and universal counselor.
IBB’S tenure and time with us have remained alive for these years. People did not give up hoping for the story of those days from the man himself. The reasons behind the persistence of demands for a Babangida memoir are many.
The questions that have lingered are mostly about matters unusual that happened in the Babangida days : abnormal ways of dying; difficult ways of surviving and living; coups and runouts of coups and counter coups; impossible rules of governance. And yet, the man at the center of it all was constant, smiling, infinitely humane but stern as the professional warrior he was trained to be.
Rulership under him etched new rules and explored unfamiliar paths. It became a dance, a drama of hard choices: a man in full military gear that insisted strangely on being called ‘president’ without resigning his military commission; the msn who in the storm of the Cold War insisted that Nigeria should go: ‘a little to the right and a little to the left’, a man who enabled elected governors to rule under a martial president; a military ruler who allowed an elected legislature to thrive under ultimate garrison decrees. A master of multiple speak and the wisdom of Delphic ancestry: ‘ we do not know those who will succeed us but we know those who will NOT succeed us’!
The public outing of Babangida’s memoirs – A Journey in Service- is deserving of the national splash we have seen. Everything about IBB is news, sensation and headline. This is for good reason. In the growing pantheon of our former leaders, Babangida elicits the greatest anxiety and much deserved excitement . No memoir of a former leader has been and is likely to be so long awaited.
Why the anxious wait? The man’s actions in power deserve no less. He was an original author of the impossible. An army general who seized power, suspended the constitution but insists on being called President and genuinely in love with presidential democracy. A practicing Moslem who insisted that the ideal Nigerian family size should be a couple with four children. A dictator who ruled by decrees but committed himself to a rigorous democratic reform process. To rule by decree and allow elected local governments, state governors and an elected National Assembly.
The Babangida memoir is therefore a comprehensive answer to many lingering national questions but rendered as a string of varied personal stories of an individual life turned into national history
There are multiple stories in this master tale. The primary personal narrative is about his early life. It is story of a young lad who was orphaned at 14 and for whom school was a surrogate home. It is the story of proceeding to high school in Bida where he became classmates with people with whom his later life and career became intertwined. Gado Nasko, Sani Bello, Sani Sami, Mamman Vatsa, Mohammed Magoro , Garba Duba and others. It is the story of a boy who was good in sports and also had obvious natural leadership qualities. He was greeted by the envy of some peers and the obedience of many mates. These lives became more intertwined as most of these young boys later opted for careers in the military. They were inspired by among others young Capt Yakubu Gowon. They went ahead to head different areas of Nigeria’s military establishment.
The other story is that of his career path in the military, his involvement in the series of military coups that altered the history and course of the nation. His instinct for coups was so ingrained that many observers have said that his ultimate exit from power in 1983 was perhaps a self-inflicted coup .
The major tragic chapter of the IBB story is his combat experience in the civil war. His battlefield injury in
Uzuakoli and subsequent recovery ended in A decision to get married. Easily the most touching aspect of his war story is the breach with colleagues who fought on the Biafran side.
There are sub stories in this narrative that raise the temperature of the story to near tragic catastrophic dimensions. His bare handed encounter to disarm Col. Dimka after the assassination of Murtala Muhammed. There was also his narrow escape and survival following the Orkar coup. These aspects of the IBB story come close to fictional suspense crime stories.
The major story of public interest is Babangida and the drama of power incumbency. In this crucial part, the many unanswered questions come into view. he touching accounts of the death of Dele Giwa, the trial and execution of Mamman Vatsa, the dreadful night of the Orkar coup and the unfortunate crash of the military C-130 aircraft all come together as instances of the bad things that could happen in a season of power.
Babangida renders his account with the consummate ease of a master story teller. The difficult accounts of state action and the unattractive business of policy are made to be readable. He animates the landscape of the story with anecdotes and recollections of the human angle of difficult national decisions. In this memoir, there is hardly any name calling, hardly any contentious arguments. The audience is drawn into serious national issues by the allure of a very human story.
In the end, A Journey in Service becomes a shared experience between a national audience and the author as a heroic figure in a national experience of epic proportions.