In the event of a random sampling of n the event of a random sampling of Nigerian public opinion leaders, the probability is that former President Olusegun Obasanjo will be judged the best of all those who have had the privilege of holding the office of President (or as Obasanjo naysayers would say) the one eyed man in the land of the blind. It is also fair to say that, more than his colleagues, he has benefited from a better education and training in the school of Nigerian leadership. some of them, inadvertently. It is a platitude to call him a man of destiny. None has had a more fulsome harvest of providential interventions. He typifies the saying that opportunity plus preparedness is equal to luck (Opportunity+Preparedness =Luck)

An early pointer to his charmed life trajectory was the prophetic foresight of the then Military Governor of the Northern Region, Colonel Hassan Usman Katsina. In the thick of the July 1966 crisis, Obasanjo had to leave Kaduna in a hurry – there was the fear that the safety of military officers of Southern origin was no longer guaranteed. Katsina then assigned two armoured vehicles to secure his journey to the airport and warned that Obasanjo must come to no harm because Nigeria was going to need him in the future. Four years later he was on hand to receive the surrender of the secessionist Biafra army at the end of the civil war in January 1970 (as General Officer Commander of the victorious Third Marine Commando).

He and the late General Murtala Mohammed were the nationalist godfathers of the July 1975 coup that ousted General Yakubu Gowon. Obasanjo thereafter became the deputy to Mohammed in his capacity as military head of state. After the accident of the abortive February 13th 1976 coup in which Mohammed was killed, he was a shoeing into the vacuum created by the assassination of his principal. He was ordained to barely escape getting killed in the coup by fortuitous circumstances. It so happened that on the same day, he had altered his daily routine to accommodate the christening of General Olu Bajowa’s baby to whom he was godfather. Furthermore, General Dumuje was mistaken for him and was accordingly rained with bullets but he survived.

All along in his career, he deliberately cultivated the trust and confidence of the dominant conservative wing of the Northern political establishment.There were rumours to the effect that he was the godfather of the best known Northern elite pressure group, Kaduna mafia. In the subsequent coup of December 1983, the leading conspirators had requested him to pick up the baton he left behind in October 1979 but he declined. You will recall the Mohammed Buhari junta routinely self identified as an offshoot of the Murtala-Obasanjo regime.

As head of state, Obasanjo burnished his lustre and appeal with the successful implementation of a military disengagement from power and transition of political power to civil democratic rule programme. He thereafter commenced another life stream as a burgeoning World statesman.Today, he is the chairman of the committee of former Presidents. Not to talk of the martyrdom effect of the adversity he endured at the murderous caprice of the rogue military dictator, General Sani Abacha. For that matter what used to be the dark spot of his political career, the third term gambit, appears to have transmuted into a missed opportunity in the popular imagination.

It is a reflection of his productive and disciplined life that he went on to acquire a doctorate degree in theology, immediately after his eight years presidency. Exasperated at the repeated failures of his successors, he had pointedly asked me to propose a way out of the mess Nigeria has found itself. He enjoyed utilising me as proxy for the Obafemi Awolowo political school of thought with which he was often at cross purposes. He enjoined me to speak freely without regard to his well known stump speeches.

Obasanjo belongs to a category of Nigerian leaders especially those of military background who are generally disdainful of ‘restructuring’ as reflected in his dismissive refrain that what Nigeria needs is a “restructuring of the mind”. This attitude is typical of the status quo stalwarts who are instinctively suspicious of any suggestion of decentralisation as the only realistic response to the lapse of Nigeria into interminable political and governance abyss. As probable panacea for what ails Nigeria my default position essentially boils down to an advocacy for the restoration of federalism as against reducing the political problem of Nigeria to the absence of ‘good leadership’.

So how do we conjure this good leadership? If we had been searching for this elusive good leadership for the better part of post-independence Nigeria, shouldn’t we get realistic and retrace our footsteps from where we sprayed into the wrong turn. If we were lucky enough to get good leadership occasionally, how do we ensure that the magic does not depart our shores again?.

The emergence of good leaders or bad leaders is random and not predictable unlike the permanence and certainty of the mediation of impersonal constitutional structure. Properly understood, the constitution is the product of our collective wisdom, whose applicability is the irreducible minimum of our coexistence. Moreso for a country that is prone to dysfunction. The futility of predicating the viability of Nigeria on the hope for good leadership has been the sad story of the fourth republic.

Democracy is particularly notorious in its blindness to virtue and optimal outcome of elections. Otherwise Donald Trump would not have been elected American president seven years ago. And no truth has been better said than the quip of Obasanjo that “the best candidate may not win the election” in the 1979 presidential election. Winston Churchill once said that: “democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried.”

What is within our capacity to determine is the constitutional structure that is responsive to our foundational challenges. A viable constitutional order anticipates the worst case scenario of a destructive leadership, hence its inherent imposition of limitations and constraints on the capacity of bad leadership to damage society. It is analogous to taking out an insurance cover for your properties. Science proceeds from the assumption of worst case scenario not the wishful thinking of anticipating good leadership. It is in the assumption of this scientific logic that federalism was formulated as response to Nigeria’s peculiarities and vision. The most debilitating source of Nigeria’s political instability and crisis since 1966 was the military rule enabled over centralisation of powers hence the self prescription of decentralisation.

Nowhere is it truer than Nigeria that federalism is tragedy ‘as it is intended as a response mechanism to political conflict not an optimal strategy. It is a suboptimal compromise in the effort to defuse real and potential situations of conflict and ensure that such situations do not degenerate into less attractive possibilities’¹ The optimal strategy would have been for Nigeria not to be amalgamated in the first place.These were my ruminations and I suspect I might have moved a needle in his disposition towards devolution and decentralisation of powers.

Within the cosmopolitan ambience of the Obasanjo Presidential court would be found the constellation of Nuhu Ribadu and peers from across the nooks and crannies of Nigeria. We worked and lived like a political family of happy warriors. Ribadu was particularly close to Obasanjo. And in the post-Obasanjo era, we endure different degrees of withdrawal syndrome but who would have thought Nigeria would equally suffer a withdrawal syndrome to the extent of wishing that the third term bid had succeeded. His all encompassing role as the National Security Adviser has weighed heavily on him in an important respect-serving to bridge the gap between his principal, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Obasanjo. Understandably, he was not happy that Obasanjo did not attend the last council of state meeting in Abuja. We more or less spent the last Christmas break in Lagos to set in motion the process of thawing the frosty relationship between both of them.

So far as I know, the only encounter between the former President and the incumbent was the occasion of the inauguration ceremony of the ‘reelected’ Governor of Imo state, Hope Uzordinma. In a buoyant mood Tinubu had warmed up to Obasanjo and said aloud he was coming to see the former President. Obasanjo said that what he most appreciated was the waiver of the protocol that no flight takes off when the president is waiting to board his flight. Surprisingly, the camaraderie was blacked out in newspaper reports the following day. If you add two plus two, it is easy to conclude that some people (in Tinubu’s caucus) have a vested interest in the perpetuation of the cold war between the two.

Inevitably, the absence of Obasanjo at the council of state meeting was the kernel of our discussion the last time I saw Nuhu. He found it unacceptable that the former President would generously give of his time and energy to help distressed countries and ignore Nigeria. My position is that a newly elected President should have honoured his predecessors with at least a courtesy telephone call once he resumes office. This is good etiquette, moreso in the Yoruba culture especially if the incumbent is the younger party. I was surprised to see that an acclaimed master of political pragmatism could not transcend personal reservation in such a situation of realpolitik.

I issued a press statement on the itinerary of Obasanjo on Sunday which consisted of his ceremonial visits to Benin to felicitate with Chief Gabriel Igbinedion on his 90th birthday and from there went to Minna on a compensatory retroactive birthday felicitations. He was not in Nigeria on the actual birthday of President Ibrahim Babangida on August 17th. The statement was intended to put the itinerary in its true perspective as against the insinuation of ulterior motive

couched in reports such as this “it was further learnt that, at the residence of General Babangida (rtd), another former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar (rtd), and former National Security Adviser (NSA), General Aliyu Gusau (rtd), were also waiting for Former President Obasanjo”.

By now, it is common knowledge that Abdulsalami and Babangida are close neighbours and close friends in the retirement residence in Minna. And both of them are personally close to Obasanjo including General Aliyu Gusau. All of whom were his mentees.The news would have been that these friends stayed away when Obasanjo came calling.

As the news unfolded about the Dangote Refinery and the counter-currents, I was stupefied. Specifically, I never knew that Nigeria’s oil policy would ever come to this sorry pass. Mind you, I am not innocent as far as oil and Nigeria are concerned. But I never thought for one moment that my country’s oil would be in a hock to external interests ably egged on by their internal collaborators. As I pondered over this issue, and the other related variable like, massive oil theft, I waited in vain for a rebuttal from official quarters. Thus far, none has come. So what is being bandied about our oil being used upfront as collateral for our debts by the previous regime may well be true.

As I began to ponder over this and other sad issues, memories came to mind about Nigeria and the black gold.

These memories are mainly owed to a career of over forty years in which I acquired various academic qualifications in the twin areas of oil politics and energy diplomacy.

In the course of this career, the shocks came very early during a field work, which eventually led to the highest academic degree in the area of oil and international relations.

In my attempts to gather first hand-information on oil politics, I had to interview a gentleman, a Nigerian and former secretary General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). We got talking and in due course, the name of a Canadian scholar, Terisa Turner came up. The gentleman categorically told me that he knew Terisa Turner. But since he was running late for another appointment, we agreed to meet on the same day, in the same place-his Western House Office on Lagos Island. We duly met as agreed. But when Terisa Turner’s name came up again, the former OPEC scribe told me that he had never met Terisa Turner in his life. I was aghast and I immediately sensed that I was entering an area of study that was populated by invisibles and invincibles!!

My next port of call, a few days later was on another gentleman. One of those super-perm secs of the Gowon Era. Very suave and self-assured in manners and diction. This is not surprising. Afterall, he had studied the three Greats: Politics, Philosophy and Economics in Oxford with a background in King’s College, Lagos. As an old boy myself, matters moved swiftly between us.

Then the name Terisa Turner came up again. On hearing T.T, this KCOB and Oxford alumnus lost his cool. He proceeded to mouth epithets against the woman, and such are better left out of this piece.

This much was clear however, I had to go back to the Library to search out the works of Terisa Turner. This was when I discovered that the woman wrote her PhD thesis on: The Formulation and Implementation of Nigerian Petroleum Policy. In the thesis, the thrust of her argument was that Nigeria is mainly an arena where the oil companies act out their various external interests in collusion with various internal interests to the detriment of the Nigerian State

This according to her was a recipe for instability. In this respect she went on to predict long before the 1983 coup that a coup was only a question of time in view of the various forces jousting for influence in the arena of oil policy in Nigeria.

Fast forward to 1985, after finishing the doctoral programme.

I was bristling with enthusiasm and I had to attend a conference in McGill University in Canada, where I presented a Paper on: Oil, Nigeria and Mexico.

After the presentation, one woman came up to me and said that there were gaps in my analysis. That I needed to do more work by way of more familiarity with the literature. I took this suggestion in my stride, after all knowledge by its very nature is infinite. I subsequently asked for the lady’s name and she revealed that she was Terisa Turner. I pressed on by asking her whether she knows the former OPEC scribe, she answered in the affirmative. I duly informed her that the man told me that he does not know her. She simply threw back her head and laughed.

Yet another episode, which comes to mind, is the LNG Project. Dear readers please note that efforts to harness Nigeria’s gas resources date back to 1964 some sixty years. And as some technocrats are wont tell in fits of escapism, they always contend that Nigeria is not even an oil producing country; that it is in fact a gas producing social formation. My usual response to this is that the power realities, which govern oil, are also ever present in the gas industry. Long story short, on one fine day, a former oil minister, Tam David-West announced that the money earmarked for the LNG Project, some eight hundred million dollars was missing. The Nigerian media did not pick up the scent. I did and made enquiries from the lawyer in charge of the project under the first administration of Obasanjo. The lawyer was startled because I simply called on him to educate the audience on the issue at an open seminar in Obafemi Awolowo University. He in turn, educated the audience that the then departing regime of Obasanjo handed over the issue to the then incoming government of Shehu Shagari. For four years during the second republic nothing happened. Then the Special Adviser on energy to Shagari died. The 1983 coup came and the whiz kid of the Era bought into a major commercial bank. The new board of directors was made of top and retired personnel of the then NNPC. At this juncture even the non-imaginative reader can fill in the details.

Another episode, which comes to mind, involves this writer and the late Ken Saro Wiwa. Largely at my instigation, I caused the defunct African Guardian Magazine to organize a seminar on: Oil Companies and Oil Community Relations. This was way back in 1993.I served as an anchor resource person at this seminar. In this capacity, I had to comment on every paper through analysis and interpretation. I was enjoying myself at this intellectual feast.

The crunch time was when it was Ken Saro Wiwa’s turn to present a paper. He did alright. But in a different way. He came forth with pictorial footages on the plight of the Ogoni people. The atmosphere changed. Most of the junior workers of the Presidential Hotel poured into the hall. It was no longer a seminar for sedate academics. Heavy advocacy was on courtesy of Ken, the irreverent Ogoni man. But one oil man from Shell would not let him be. He offered counters to Ken’s depositions. It was feisty exchange between the two men. A sort of civil war: for the other man was also from an oil-bearing area. As a serious student of oil politics, the implications and irony of this abrasive encounter was not lost on me. For here were two men from the South-South crossing swords with one batting on the side of the oil companies and with Ken on the other side. Evidently it was not a civil exchange and the two men nearly came to blows. For me, the episode brought to my mind the fate of one Italian man, Enrico Mattei who in an earlier era, also took on the oil companies. He died mysteriously in an air crash. And as the records go, it was reported that when Enrico Matteo died in what has been regarded as an arranged air crash, there were no long faces in the corridors of the oil companies. I went on to narrate this story to the audience and proceeded to pointedly warn Ken that if he was not careful, he would go down the Mattei way. This was precisely Ken’s fate two years later. On November 10,1995,he was hanged courtesy of a kangaroo trial, which precluded an appeal. Such indeed are the ways of oil.

As I reflect on this greasy fluid and Nigeria, what vividly comes to mind is that, no Nigerian leader has ever said anything concrete about oil. Rather the focus has always been on oil revenues. But there is an exception. That exception comes in the spirited interventions of Obafemi Awolowo. As the Finance Minister under Gowon, he caused the government to send a delegation to other oil producing countries. He wanted to know why Nigeria was getting low returns from her oil. The delegation produced a comprehensive report as regards the way forward for Nigeria. This was a 1969 document and it should have been used as a Bible for our oil policy. But shortly after, Awolowo left the government and that was the end of the matter. But not quite.

In the run-up to the 1979 and 1983 elections the same Awolowo outlined comprehensive plans as regards how the oil industry would be run. But the man was too far ahead of his time. This was moreso when the sage was pitted against the vampires of the then ruling party.

So where are we at the moment. For much too long we have gone to sleep. Such that the abnormal has assumed the profile of the normal. For how can one explain a situation in which an oil producing country cannot refine its product and as such has to depend on refined imported oil.

However it looks as if the jinx is about to be broken since the hegemonic forces appear to be in retreat partly because of Tinubu’s latest thrust. It is instructive to note here that PBAT has succeeded in doing the unprecedented by inserting the Naira as a transactional item in our oil business. No more the almighty dollar.

But in an overall sense: will he succeed? Can he succeed? If these questions can be answered positively, then Nigeria would have embarked on a path, which should have been taken several years ago.

But then, as the sage would say: better late than never.

But even then, there are matters arising from this latest phase of our adventure in the oil industry.

There is still much confusion about the pricing and how the product will get to the consumer. At a point in time, Dangote himself said he was waiting on the Federal Executive Council (FEC) as regards pricing. Again we were initially told that NNPC would be the sole off-taker of the products from the Dangote refinery. Meanwhile, as if NNPC is something of a scourge to the populace, it keeps breathing down our necks that the refined oil will not come cheap. And as we write, the street is not smiling as regards the availability and rising price of petrol.

PBAT himself has not helped matters, by his depositions all the way from China.

Among other things, he was of the view that things will have to get worse, before they get better. True, and this is common place enough.

But what remains unaddressed is that under the current conditions, Nigeria only gets 5 percent of what is due to her from the industry. The rest is appropriated by wiser folks outside Nigeria.

In more plaintive terms, what is being said is this; over time since the inception of what passes for the Nigerian oil industry, we have failed to put in place backward linkages, which would have catalyzed our quest for industrialization. For any country with a viable petrochemical industry  (as well as a steel industry) would have successfully weaned itself from itself from unbridled importation which is the sad and tragic lot of our Nigeria, despite its oil.

So beyond all the noise about the Dangote refinery and the perennially coming Port Harcourt refinery, the challenge is really how we can run a viable oil industry that will serve as the foundation of an industrialized Nigeria. Luckily for us, this is not rocket science.

Other social formations through their respective oil companies have been able to serve their countries in this critical area.

On this note, my specific references are to entities like: PETROBRAS; (Brazil), SONATRACH; (Algeria), PEMEX; (Mexico), PETRONAS; (MALAYSIA).

Against this background, my final poser to PBAT is this: Is it possible for us to learn from one or more these countries as regards how we can attain a breakthrough in this critical area.

As it is, the debates and discourses in this critical area of our oil industry have not even started.

This, I believe is the ultimate challenge before this administration in the area of the oil industry-namely the task of putting in place backward linkages which will give a novel fillip to the Nigerian economy.

Permit to end here by saying that a number of individuals are well placed to drive this novel policy thrust. Such individuals include: Engineer Oladele Afolabi, Engineer Kayode Ojo, Austin Avuru, Cyril Obi and Professor Julius Ihonvbere.

•Professor Kayode Soremekun is the immediate past Vice Chancellor of Federal University, Oye-Ekiti.

The Inspector-General of Police, IGP Kayode Egbetokun has ordered the redeployments of the Commissioners of Police in charge of Rivers, Delta and the Federal Capital Territory Police Commands.

According to the directive, the CP Rivers State Command, CP Olatunji Disu has been redeployed as the new CP FCT; CP Delta State Command, CP Abaniwonda Olufemi has been moved to Rivers State Command as CP while CP FCT, CP Peter Opara has been redeployed as new Delta Command’s CP.

Force Public Relations Officer, ACP Olumuyiwa Adejobi, in a statement said in addition, following the approval of the Police Service Commission, the Inspector-General of Police has also deployed four CPs as Commissioners of Police for Abia, Lagos, Ebonyi, and Akwa-Ibom State Commands.

The deployments include the posting of CP Danladi Nda to Abia State Command; CP Olanrewaju Ishola Olawale to Lagos State Command; CP Anthonia Adaku Uche-Anya to Ebonyi State Command and CP Festus Eribo to Akwa-Ibom State Command.

He said, “The posting of these strategic managers reflects the mission of the Inspector-General of Police to strategically reposition the Police Force and ensure maximum utilization of human resources available to the Force.”

The IGP has, however, urged the new CPs of State Commands to ensure diligence in the discharge of their lawful duties and adopt innovations that could mitigate security challenges in their respective areas of responsibility.

He further charged them to key into the police reform plans, which will help the progress of the Nigeria Police Force and the growth of the country in general.

[Leadership]

There is hunger and anger in the land. This is because of high cost of food items and transportation, the fall-out of removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the nation’s currency, measures government says will free us from economic slavery we were thrown into by short-sighted leaders who embarked on massive foreign borrowing, crude oil swapping and local borrowing through ‘ways and means.

No one can blame President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for having the courage to try to change the narrative before the nation’s descent to Venezuela’s status. But equally, no one can blame angry and hungry Nigerians who, as victims of elite conspiracy embarked on protest which was sadly hijacked by sore losers who will not mind truncating the democratization process that brave Nigerians fought and died for while they hobnobbed with the military dictators.

I think what hungry and angry Nigerians are saying is that since government policies are made for the people and not the other way round, they must have human face if they are to meet the aspirations of the people they are designed to serve. I don’t think this is too much to ask for.

If you therefore ask me, I will say the enemies of President Tinubu and by extension of Nigerians, are not those who believe government policies should have human face, many of who by the way, voted for President Tinubu in 2023, but are today united with Tinubu’s erstwhile political foes since hunger, high transport fair and spending hours queuing for fuel know no discrimination.

I think those the president should fear are those in government whose needs are met by the state and therefore totally cut off from reality.  They are all victims of cultural imperialism who believe market forces is the only way forward  forgetting comparison can be odious. In the home of capitalism, few individuals owned their society while the rest serve as serfs living just to sustain the system in which they cannot afford to send their children to universities or build houses on their own without further enslavement by the state. Here we have no capitalists. As Professor Bolaji Akinyemi once pointed out, most Nigerian billionaires made their monies through the state.

Those who are therefore hawking the comparative costs of a litre of fuel in Britain, US, China, South Africa are missing the point. President Tinubu signed a social contract with millions of self-employed Nigerians. This distinction is important for those who could not understand the policy thrust of colonial masters who as birds of passage lived in reservation areas, provided with furnished residential houses and like a conquering army lived on spoils of war. This is why our politicians whose needs are met by the state are today cut off from reality of majority of Nigerians.

Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) is perhaps the next most dangerous enemy of President Tinubu and by extension, Nigeria. It was set up for the purpose of is harnessing Nigeria’s oil and gas reserves for sustainable national development. It was also to profitably and efficiently market refined petroleum products in the domestic market and ensuring products supply efficiency either from domestic refining or from importation.

Unfortunately NNPC not only failed, it has remained a cesspool of corruption outwitting successive Nigerian leaders over the years.

Incidentally  Olusegun Obasanjo while serving as military head of state in 1977, had set up a tribunal to investigate the operations of the Nigerian National Oil Company (NNOC), which metamorphosed into NNPC). Perhaps, based on his experience, he, as elected president (1999-2007), decided to run NNPC as a sole administrator.

Under his watch, millions of dollars budgeted for the refurbishment of our four refineries was frittered away. With no work done, NNPC created artificial fuel scarcity, a ploy that led to the creation of an all-purpose body through which party stalwarts and their siblings with the active connivance of some NNPC officials defrauded the nation of trillions of naira through fuel subsidy scam without importing a pint of fuel. He sold the refineries before his exit from power in 2007, a decision his successor Umaru Yar’Adua reversed.

President Goodluck Jonathan told Nigerians he was in possession of the names of those sabotaging Nigerian economy through NNPC. While the list never saw the light of the day, NNPC became a source of massive fraud by Diezani Alison-Madueke, Jonathan’s petroleum minister (2010-2015). She has been charged with bribery offences in the UK, with the US Department of Justice recovering from her assets totalling $53.1m.

President Muhammadu Buhari was not unfamiliar with monumental corruption in NNPC. During his tenure as Federal Commissioner of Petroleum and Natural Resources, he was falsely linked by Ibrahim Babangida who toppled his government with, US$2.8 billion which allegedly went missing from the accounts of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in Midlands Bank in the United Kingdom. He was however found innocent by the Crude Oil Sales Tribunal of Inquiry headed by Justice Ayo Irikefe.  

This experience might have influenced his decision to appoint himself Minister of Petroleum while serving as elected president between 2015 and 2023. This however brought little relief as NNPC remained a cesspool of corruption.

Toeing the line of his predecessors, President Tinubu also took over the petroleum ministry. Tinubu unarguably was not into the game of popularity contest in view of the biting effect of his economic policies, what he however did not bargain for was to be portrayed as an unfeeling and uncaring leader that deliberately visited hardship on his people.

He had directed that crude oil be sold in naira to Dangote Refinery. Dangote had thanked him for his support and faith in local manufacturers and predicted era of relief for Nigerians who spend hours on queues at filling stations. Dangote’s message of hope was coming amidst artificial fuel scarcity created by NNPC that claimed to owe $6b to international fuel suppliers a few weeks after declaring a whopping profit of about N3 trillion.

On September 3, 48 hours after Dangote’s promise of a new dawn in oil supply to Nigerians, NNPC that had for months denied payment of subsidy by government, jacked up price petrol pump prices from N585 to N897 per litre.  And then by strange coincidence, fuel supply to the filling stations suddenly eased without telling Nigerians the source of their new supply.  

I am sure President Tinubu, a seasoned politician by all accounts, understands that he is the target. Imagine; the NNPC, the regulator – the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NIMDPRA) that had a week earlier tried to question the quality of products from Dangote refinery which they claimed had excess sulphur, even when they did not have standard testing laboratories.

Of course, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), took time off from its civil war to do its job as an opposition party for once by describing fuel price increase by the NNPC “as a brutal assault on the sensibility and wellbeing of Nigerians by the insensitive and arrogant All Progressives Congress (APC) administration. It accused the APC government of being indifferent and unresponsive to the struggles of millions of Nigerians who can no longer afford their daily necessities”. Unfortunately this is a message that resonates with most Nigerians going through this difficult period

The picture of the president painted was very damaging because until it was confirmed last Sunday morning  that  the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has deployed over 100 trucks to the Dangote Refinery in preparation for the commencement of fuel loading on Sunday, with the seven major oil marketers, dealers under the aegis of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association and the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria  claiming their readiness to start lifting and distribution of refined petroleum products, it was widely believed by Nigerians that government that refused to denounce NNPC as it embarked on its game along with marketers was party to their conspiracy against Dangote and Nigerians.

Nigerian striker Victor Olatunji made a remarkable UEFA Champions League debut, contributing both a goal and an assist in Sparta Prague’s commanding 3-0 victory over Red Bull Salzburg on Wednesday.

Olatunji doubled Sparta Prague’s lead in the 42nd minute, finding the back of the net before assisting Qazim Laçi in the 58th minute for the team’s third goal.

Olatunji’s impressive debut earns him a spot among the select group of African players to have scored and assisted in their first Champions League appearance.

According to a football stats platform, Opta Joe, Olatunji is the third African player, and the first Nigerian, to score and assist on his UEFA Champions League debut, joining Daniel Cousin (Rangers vs Lyon, 2007) and Serge Aurier (PSG vs Shakhtar Donetsk, 2015) in this elite group. 

To celebrate his goal, Olatunji lifted his jersey to reveal an undershirt with the inscription, “I am a Chosen, who are you?”—a nod to a recent viral trend that has sparked discussions on social media.

The trend gained traction after videos of testimonies shared by members of The Lord’s Chosen Charismatic Revival Ministries went viral.

The testimonies led to widespread online engagement, with many social media users parodying them.

However, the leadership of the church has refuted claims that the viral videos represent the true essence of their testimonies, stating that some of them have been doctored and taken out of context to mock their faith.

They clarified that the testimonies occurred in dreams and emphasised that people should be cautious of misleading content online.

[Punch]

In July, the wife of President Mrs Oluremi Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Initiative launched a “smart farming” project to boost food production. According to her, if everyone takes up farming, the problem of hunger can be ameliorated. To lead by example, Mrs Tinubu had to show herself at work. A sanctioned television crew and a few hangers-on who would say the right things were about the only witnesses to the landmark event of a woman—who likely cannot distinguish between ewédu and lemon grass seeds—farm in the backyard of the presidential residence. It was just right that no serious media house was invited to witness the occasion. Imagine how disruptive of that grandiose charade it would be if any of them who still had their heads screwed right asked irritating questions like, “So how many aides will help to water these vegetables when you would have forgotten all about their existence?

Given that first ladies typically use their symbolic power for social advocacy, it was not out of order for Mrs Tinubu to have launched an initiative around urban farming. Under a different set of circumstances, it would be a good idea. What ruins her advocacy is the gaslighting and the insincerity that underwrites the whole project. First, asking women to get involved in farming to boost national food production is out of touch. Women already farm. If she had done some homework before starting her pet initiative, she would have realised that a significant percentage of farming in Nigeria is done by women. What does Mrs Tinubu think women in rural areas do for a living?

Second, when she claimed that the proceeds from her garden would feed her family and she would be giving some to her staff members, you saw a woman who lies like a child. Even the most dimwitted among us know that that little thing you are doing in that garden has no impact whatsoever on the Aso Rock food budget. Why insult the public by pretending there is anything more to the project than the mere symbolism of it all? The ‘Every Home a Garden’ project is inorganic and so unrelated to the reality of life in Nigeria that she knew the idea would hardly catch on. Typical of the Tinubus to throw money at issues, she offered a N25m prize to farmers just to stimulate some interest.

Third—and this point is crucial, is the fact that much of the present food crisis is a fallout of her husband’s ill-conceived policies. Yes, there has always been hunger in Nigeria, but under their administration, food costs shot up astronomically. At the time Mrs Tinubu was launching her garden in July, food prices had increased by more than 200 percent compared to last year. The inflation is about structural problems that can only be addressed through providing the right infrastructure. It was disingenuous of Mrs Tinubu to pretend that the matter is simple, and resolvable if women would just grow food crops inside a bucket in their houses. She says the farming initiative is for all of us to contribute solutions. But why solicit corporate support when the problem was not caused by the collective? It was you—the Tinubu administration—that caused the problem. It should also be you solving it, not deflecting responsibility.

When they launched the regional initiative in Jos, Mrs Tinubu was represented by Salamatu Gbajabiamila, wife of the chief of staff to the president, who announced their donation of N500,000 to 20 women in each of the north-central states. Mrs Gbajabiamila said they were confident that their efforts would boost women in agriculture, transform the lives of the beneficiaries of their stipend, and even contribute to food sufficiency in the region. There you go! Thanks to Mrs Tinubu and her right-hand women, all the complex problems rural women face—from insecurity to poverty, lack of storage facilities and food processing infrastructure, and poor access to capital—will be resolved by throwing a pittance at a few actors, the money that might not even reach their hands.

These people have not made genuine efforts to understand the problem, but they are expecting their pet project to be transformative. To even simulate the magical results they wanted, Mrs Tinubu’s vegetables were harvested a mere 23 days after she allegedly planted them.

Now Mrs Tinubu is on to another joke: a fabric to promote national unity. According to her, she was inspired to create a national fabric after a trip to Zimbabwe last year. She called for a national competition with another N25m prize for whoever can design the national fabric. Now, she says that dress will be donned on October 1st. Well, the first thing she should have asked the Zimbabweans was how the national fabric, launched in 2020, is working for them. Are they more united because they wear a uniform now?

If Mrs Tinubu had bothered to inquire, she would have found that the main reason the Zimbabwean national dress seems to be popular is because the interest is imposed by the first lady who uses the government machinery to sell it. Nobody wears it because they buy into the idea of national unity, nor do they imagine their historical and ideological fault lines will magically disappear because they wear “andco.” The dress will disappear the moment the government that made it near-compulsory for civil servants and party supporters leave power.

Mrs Tinubu, like a typical African leader who pursues symbolism at the expense of substance, thinks that in addition to changing the national anthem, they can foster unity through a dress. That is how they will obsess over national unity until the next election, when their attack dogs will be unleashed with their usual divisive rhetoric, and they will pretend to be blind, deaf, and mute.

Mrs Tinubu says local manufacturers will mass-produce the fabric, thereby boosting the local textile industry, creating jobs, and improving the economy. There we go again with magical expectations. You are not even sure that people will give a bleep about your fabric, but you are already building castles in the air. Apart from the APC flock who will be made to wear their uniform to prove they are still standing on Bola’s mandate, how does Mrs Tinubu hope to sell enough nationwide to keep the local textile factories working? How much money is even being invested in this farce?

Meanwhile, Mrs Tinubu is so locked in the Yoruba insularity and nepotism of her husband’s government that she fails to see that the optics of the project are entirely bad. So, she, a Yoruba woman, initiated the project. The named judges are Yoruba women; her Lagos friends, and the winner of the N25m fabric design competition is a Yoruba woman too! Mrs Tinubu wants an incredibly diverse country people to wear a national aso ebí, but it just did not occur to her to extend the sphere of creating the material beyond Yorubas? So how do you hope to get the buy-in of non-Yoruba Nigerians if you do not think their contributions are valuable? So much for national unity!

Like her vegetable garden, I can bet Mrs Tinubu did not think through what the national fabric project was meant to achieve or how to organize the idea. This “andco” thing is just another means of seeking social relevance for a woman who does not know what she should be doing with her time or how to justify budgetary allocations to her “office.” Unfortunately, she does not have advisors or friends who can help her design a sensible project. All the women surrounding her are likely to just say “yes, ma” each time she proposes another witless idea. Even if an idea for a worthwhile project were to be created for her, she still does not come across as someone who has the discipline to sit down and master what it takes to turn it into a success. She just wants to be seen as relevant and that is why she is all over the place, doing too much of nothing.

ON Saturday, September 21, Edo electorate will elect a new governor who will superintend over the affairs of the state in the next four years. In other climes, that is a simple task. Agreed, contestation for power is a serious business not meant for chicken-hearted fellas, but the heavy lifting is done out on the hustings, talking to people. On Election Day, the will of the majority expressed through the ballot box prevails.

That is why, in such other climes, the polity is not shut down on Election Day. Movements are unhindered with schools, markets and sundry businesses remaining open as people exercise their franchise. But not so in Nigeria. As Edo people go to the polls in less than 48 hours, the state has been shut down, and on hand to enforce the lockdown are 35,000 policemen and 8,000 other security personnel, including soldiers, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, NSCDC, operatives and Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, officials. The NSCDC alone deployed 6,433 personnel, including intelligence squads, anti-vandal units, and Special Forces mobilised from its national headquarters.

The Inspector General of Police, IGP, Kayode Egbetokun, said the 8,000 security personnel other than the police will man the waterways, as well as the entry and exit points to the state. The Defence Headquarters is claiming that the deployment of soldiers is meant to guarantee a safe environment for the electorate, despite the fact that a Federal High Court in Lagos, relying on a Court of Appeal judgement that barred the use of soldiers in the conduct of elections, ruled in 2015 that such deployment is a violation of Section 217(2)(c) of the Constitution and Section 1 of the Armed Forces Act.

Now, let us throw in some statistics for context. This is a standalone, off-cycle governorship election. Created on August 27, 1991, Edo occupies 17,802 km², which makes it the 22nd largest State by landmass in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 4.777 million as at 2022, it ranks as the 22nd most populous state. If INEC is to be believed, there are 2,629,025 registered voters in the state, out of which 2,249,780 collected their Permanent Voter Cards. The state has 18 local government areas with 4,519 polling units where 17 candidates, including the frontline three – Asue Ighodalo (PDP), Monday Okpebholo (APC) and Olumide Akpata (LP) – will slug it out on Saturday.

How is it that 25 years after, Nigeria cannot hold a successful election in one of its 36 states without so much security exertions? Any country that requires a total shutdown of the polity, deployment of well over 43,000 security personnel and signing of a peace accord to conduct a standalone election is a democracy hellhole.

And that brings me to the General Abdulsalami Abubakar-led National Peace Accord Committee, NPAC, and the spin by those adept at playing the ostrich that the mere signing of a peace accord guarantees a violence-free poll. Well, Governor Godwin Obaseki and his political party, the PDP, think otherwise. And I dare say, they are right.

Now, to be clear, there is need to promote peace and ensure a free, fair and credible governorship poll in Edo. But signing a peace accord that will be breached even before the ink dries on the paper, is a distraction. Yes, the optics of such ceremonials are good which explains why some political gladiators are ululating that Obaseki scored an own goal by opting out.

But the question remains: has Obaseki any reason to be doubtful that both the police and INEC are incapable of delivering justice in the Edo election? Yes, he has because both Professor Mahmoud Yakubu and IGP Egbetokun have shown bad faith.

Besides, President Bola Tinubu, promoter of the “power is not served a la carte school of politics” is assuring APC that he would do for them what he knows how best to do. 

“You know me well. You know Adams Oshiomhole well. We are still going to fight further. Don’t worry, we are with you, you will not walk alone. One thing I can assure you is this: do you want Edo back?  As the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, I will give Edo back to you,” he told them. For a man whose political ideology is anchored on grabbing power and running with it, such declaration should not be dismissed with a wave of the hand.

Nothing on ground suggests that there will be a free and fair poll on Saturday. The INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner, REC, in the state, Dr. Anugbum Onuoha, is not only Nyesom Wike’s first cousin and close political ally but also strongly believed to be a card-carrying member of the APC. The Edo State Commissioner of Police, Nemo Edin-Iwo, is also a Wike ally. These are the two most important officials in the election.

As if that is not bad enough, on the eve of the elections, IGP Egbetokun’s police embarked on an arrest spree, literally snatching PDP stalwarts from their homes and even on the road in the dead of the night and broad daylight and whisking them off to Abuja.

During General Abubakar’s visit to Obaseki last week, the governor alleged that the police who are expected to enforce the peace accord are working for the APC.

“The entity supposed to maintain and enforce the peace accord is now actively creating a destructive environment… in the last four weeks, we’ve had a situation where from the office of the IGP, armed police gangs have entered Edo State to invade, arrest, and take away PDP members,” he complained to the former military leader.

“As we speak, 10 PDP members are arrested and detained in Abuja without trial. Two days ago, they arrested a local government chairman… The IGP’s office issued a warrant to arrest 60 PDP supporters, driving all our leaders into hiding. My role as the Chief Security Officer of the state is being undermined by the IGP. When I hear of an arrest and contact the Commissioner of Police, I am told the individual has been moved to Abuja.”

Then, Obaseki pointedly asked him: “So, tell me, sir, how can we sign a peace accord under these circumstances?” General Abdulsalami had no answer.

The Edo State PDP has demanded, as a condition for signing the peace accord that all party members detained in police formations across the country be released, or alternatively, charged in competent courts if they have committed any crimes; the immediate redeployment of CP Edin-Iwo and REC, Dr. Onuoha.

These are reasonable demands for confidence building. But expectedly, IGP Egbetokun laughed it off while INEC flatly rejected the call for Onuoha’s redeployment.

For those who are condemning Obaseki, the PDP and its candidate, Asue Ighodalo, for not signing the peace accord, the question the governor asked the NAPC chairman remains germane: how can a peace accord be signed under the circumstances?

As the legendary reggae artist, Peter Tosh, noted in his second studio album, Equal Rights, which was released in 1977 on Columbia Records, even as everyone is crying out for peace, there will be none ’till men get equal rights and justice.’

What is needed in Edo State on Saturday is a level playing field. Let the sovereign will of the people expressed through the ballot box prevail. The only thing that can guarantee peace is free, fair and credible poll, not a perfunctory peace accord that has become a fad but which no one is prepared to respect.

As Peter Tosh also noted in the Get Up, Stand Up track: “You can fool some people sometimes, but you can’t fool all the people all the time.” INEC fooled Nigerians in 2023 and got away with it. But they may not be twice lucky. Edo people must vote and protect their votes, no matter the level of subterfuge by those to whom free and fair election is an anathema.

The National Examinations Council, NECO, has released the 2024 SSCE internal results.

This was disclosed on Thursday, September 19, by the NECO’s Registrar/Chief Executive, Professor Dantani Wushishi.

He briefed journalists in Minna during the release of the 2024 SSCE internal results.

Also, Wushishi said that NECO blacklisted 21 supervisors in 12 states. They also de-recognised one school in Ekiti state for mass cheating in three subjects.

How to check NECO 2024 results

Below are the easy steps to check your NECO 2024 results online:

1. Visit NECO portal at https://www.neco.gov.ng. This is the only official platform for accessing your results.

2. Select ‘NECO Results’: On the homepage, pick the ‘NECO Results’ option. Clicking this will take you to the result-checking section.

Click “Check “Results”.

Alternatively, just go straight to the result portal at https://results.neco.gov.ng/.

3. Enter your examination details: Provide your exam year (2024), exam type (June/July or Nov/Dec), and your unique examination number.

4. Input your token: You can buy it directly from the NECO website. Input the token in the appropriate field. 

Special notes

You can buy token from

a) Official NECO website, which remains the most secure and reliable source for purchasing tokens.

b) Authorised retailers: Ensure the third-party retailer is officially approved by NECO to avoid being scammed.

c) Result-checker token will only allow you to check a candidate’s result once. Five attempts at most. You cannot use another token to check the same result again.

Any further checks of the same result will require you to use the NECO E-Verify Result Verification Portal to verify or confirm such results. So do not exhaust your token’s access. 

Vanguard News

On September 22, 2024 Yemi Cardoso will mark one year in office as the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria at a time of unprecedented economic headwinds. What will his scorecard look like?

A while back, I was discussing with a few friends and as is the case where one or two or more Nigerians are gathered, the discussion segued naturally to the economy. It was school fees season and three of us have children schooling abroad.

At some point, one of my friends blurted out. “Naira is now N1,580 to the dollar. What exactly is Cardoso doing at the CBN?”

This particular friend holds an MBA from a foreign university and runs two businesses in Nigeria so I was quite surprised when he reduced the functions of the CBN governor to just managing the value of the naira.

But it was not surprising. Speak to ten Nigerians and they will express almost the same sentiments. What is Cardoso doing if he can’t manage the foreign exchange rate?

The question is a valid one but also a bit reductionist because the job of a CBN governor extends beyond foreign exchange management, to include formulation and implementation of monetary policy, ensuring financial stability, reserve management, banking regulations, setting interest rates and more.

So, reducing the job description of the CBN governor to just one item in a long shopping list would be akin to a man who spends his time brushing one single tooth out of 32.

Why is foreign exchange management so important to Nigerians? Well, the short answer is that it makes news and impacts us in a lot of ways – school fees, medical care, travel, cost of goods, etc.

The naira has been making serious news since Cardoso assumed the mantle at CBN. According to the most recent World Bank’s biannual publication, Nigerian Development Update, of December 2023, the naira “depreciated against the US dollar by approximately 41% in the official market and by about 30% in the parallel market” between June and December 2023.

This was in the wake of the liberalization of the foreign exchange market or (managed) floating of the naira because the CBN is still intervening to reduce the pressure on the naira. Why was the naira floated? It was to ensure that the naira finds its true value, checkmate round tripping and remove speculative arbitrage. The ultimate aim is to achieve parity through a positive contraction in the gulf between the official and parallel market rates.  But this cannot be achieved overnight.

Yemi Cardoso admitted as much when he appeared before the House of Reps in February 2024. Acknowledging that foreign exchange management is a key part of his remit, he also noted that ““the genuine issue impacting the exchange rate is the simultaneous decrease in the supply of, and increase in the demand for, dollars. It also seems that the task of stabilising the exchange rate, while an official mandate of the CBN, would necessitate efforts beyond the apex bank itself.”

This is because boosting the value of the naira against the dollar depends on more than just the CBN defending the naira. There are other factors; oil prices in the international commodity market, a productive economy, growth in exports both oil and non-oil products, increase in foreign reserves and dollar availability which often receives a boost from diaspora remittances, a reduction in the demand for dollars and containment of inflation.

The CBN is working to make these happen and Cardoso hit the ground running by taking quick key decisions; mandated banks to adhere to Net Open Position (NOP) limits to discourage hedging and prevent excessive holding of foreign currency assets. He also ensured that backlogs of unpaid forex obligations were cleared.

But the fact remains that for an economy to grow and the local currency gain strength there must be a convergence of both monetary and fiscal policies? Monetary policy is not a silver bullet.

We saw some movement recently on the fiscal front. The first domestic dollar denominated bond was oversubscribed by 180%. Planned to raise $500 million, the bond secured $900 million in commitments.

While the oversubscription surprised analysts and underlined investors’ confidence not just in the ongoing economic reforms but Nigeria’s economic stability and growth prospects there are concerns that the bond should have been targeted more at diaspora remittances instead of domestic dollar deposits as it put demand pressure on the dollar in local supply and the CBN may have to cough up about $200m in 5 years with interest rates of 9% per annum for bond holders.

While the jury is still out on the bond’s final impact on the economy, the fact remains that seamless fiscal and monetary synergy is required to get us out of the doldrums.

Prior to this, the CBN under Cardoso had recorded an all-time high $553m diaspora remittance  inflow  in July 2024 up by 130% compared to 2023. That significant uptick was thanks to the CBN’s decision to grant access to new and eligible international money transfer operators (IMTOs) to trade on the official foreign exchange (FX) window, implementing a willing buyer-willing seller model, and enabling timely access to naira liquidity for IMTOs  thereby enhancing liquidity in Nigeria’s FX market.

There have been other monetary, credit and foreign exchange policy initiatives introduced by Cardoso which are yielding positive results.

The Monetary Policy Rate was raised to 26.75% in July 2024, the 4^th time in seven months. The increase which impacts the cost of borrowing while encouraging savings is to moderate inflation while ensuring price stability. While analysts have argued that it could stifle productive activity, the increase in the MPR appears to be having a salutary effect on month on month inflation with inflation dropping by 1.25% compared to July according to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

To address the expressed concerns the CBN has lifted import restrictions on 43 goods with the aim of achieving stability and fostering growth because cheaper imported inputs will lead to local production which will in turn boost employment as closed factories re-open and consumers will benefit from more affordable imported retail products.

The restrictions which had been in place for about eight years was ostensibly to conserve forex and encourage local production as importers were barred from using forex sourced from the official market to import the goods.  But the reverse seemed to be the case as the imports continued with importers sourcing their forex from the parallel market thereby “exerting additional demand pressure on the parallel market, widening the gap with the official rate and permanently segmenting the market.”

To reduce demand pressure in the foreign exchange market and promote price discovery, the CBN re-introduced the retail Dutch Auction System (rDAS). The Dutch auction mechanism is not new having been applied previously in 1987, 1990 and from 2002 – 2006. The system is helping sanitise the foreign exchange market by allowing for an objective evaluation of forex demand and supply ensuring that demand is for end users. Predicated on the volume of forex available for sale, rDAS, by giving forward guidance, promotes forex stability.

On August 6, 2024 $1.18bn bids were received from 32 banks with total bids of $876.26bn from 26 banks qualifying while $313.69 from six banks were disqualified for various reasons ranging from late submission, wrong template to unverifiable forms. In the pursuit of transparency, all the bids have been published on the CBN website. The effect of the return of rDAS was felt immediately with an appreciation in value.

Aside sale to banks through rDAS, the CBN is also ensuring forex availability to registered and qualified Bureaux de Change operators.

Another key initiative was the announcement that the CBN would no longer indulge the FG’s Ways and Means appetite until the previous loans, put at N18.16 trillion which is 40% higher than total money in circulation as at 2023 are repaid. Cardoso said the bank will insist on following the rules which states that the CBN cannot advance the federal government more than 5% of revenue earned in the previous year. Bold and fraught with political implications, it is meant to reduce currency in circulation and so moderate inflationary pressure.

Cardoso’s attempt to moderate government spending and fiscal dominance has already received political push back with the National Assembly approving an increase of that threshold from 5 to 10% of annual revenue.

In terms of its regulatory functions as banker to the banks, the CBN is focused on ensuring the financial stability of Nigerian banks. It is strengthening the banking system through the upward review of the minimum capital requirements, increase in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and ring fencing of the banking system through the Unclaimed Balances Trust Fund (UBTF) Pool Account.

According to the recapitalisation guideline issued on March 28, 2024, commercial banks with international authorization are now required to have a new minimum capital of N500bn which the CBN says will “enhance their resilience, solvency and capacity to continue to support the growth of the Nigerian economy.” While the targets differ based on the bank’s licence, the recapitalisation exercise is supposed to take place over 24 months and conclude on March 31, 2026. At the time of writing, share raise offers by Fidelity, Access and Guaranty Trust have been oversubscribed.

The increase of the CRR to 27.5% will help ensure that Nigerian banks are cash positive while reducing the amount of cash in circulation thereby helping achieve the CBN’s inflation moderation agenda.

The Unclaimed Balances Trust Fund (UBTF) Pool Account will warehouse “unclaimed balances in eligible accounts” helping to protect the banking system by limiting incidents of fraud to which dormant accounts are susceptible.

Finally to ensure that the policy initiatives are communicated and understood, the CBN is encouraging transparency with a return to full disclosure in the form of regular publications of reports and data. According to the CBN this is to reaffirm its “commitment to fostering transparency and accountability in the Nigerian economy.” It will also complement the data available from other sources like the NBS thus providing Nigerians a better view of the economy.

But is it working and is any one taking notice? To return again to the question we posed at the beginning; what will Cardoso’s scorecard look like?

While the naira’s battle against the dollar will dominate discourse, his adoption of proactive forex policies, regulatory initiatives and a robust  inflation-targeting framework indicate that Cardoso has shown himself as a CBN governor capable of coming up with and translating strategic initiatives into actionable outcomes.

One year into his tenure, the CBN’s target inflation rate of 21.4% has not been achieved and the naira is still on the back foot relative to the dollar, but time may well be on his side but not so for impatient Nigerians eager to see quick wins.

Kan is a PR expert and financial analyst.

I don’t get involved with what the security services do or how. Their ways are so complex and their motives so unsearchable that sometimes you’ll be forgiven for thinking that working from the answer to the question is the standard operating procedure. Of course, you are told that whatever happens in between is in the public interest.

As far as fiction imitates life, there is a striking resemblance between the recent hyperactivity in Nigeria’s security services and what happened in a novel set in mid-17^th century England. 

Good Omens: The Nice and Accurate Prophecies of Agnes Nutter, Witch by Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman (famously called “Double Trouble” by the English press) is a comedy about the birth of the son of Satan and the coming of the End Times.

The part that reminds me of what is obviously a hectic season for the security services – from the arraignment of the #EndBadGovernance protesters on charges of felony to the police raid on Labour House and run-ins with the NLC president and civil society activists – is the time in England when, according to Pratchett and Gaiman, witch-finding was a respectable profession. 

General Hopkins

At that time, there was a certain General named Matthew Hopkins. You would think that in pre-industrial England, when poverty, disease and unemployment were rampant, the last thing the state would be interested in would be a witch-hunt. But no. Witch-hunting was good business.

Hopkins charged each town and village nine pence for every witch he found. But that wasn’t enough. Since he wasn’t paid by the hour, and the reward for not finding any witches was a thank you and a bowl of soup, he invented a way to earn more. He went out of his way to find witches, which made him unpopular in the towns and villages. 

When Hopkins’ madness became insufferable, the villagers framed him as a witch, much to the pleasure of the local authorities, who were also tired of paying him. They hanged him. Hopkins, by many accounts, became the last Witchfinder General in England.

The world may have substantially passed the time when people were hunted, hanged and burned at the stake on suspicion of witchcraft. But I’m concerned that there is a growing similarity between witchcraft and how Nigeria’s security services look for enemies. 

A British suspect

Listening to the spokesperson of the Nigeria Police Force, Olumuyiwa Adejobi, explain why the force raided Labour House, the siege on the Labour leadership, and the charge of treason against protesters and their alleged British sponsor, Andrew Martin Wynne, I can almost see the ghost of 17^th century England. By his looks – and one must respect his decision to keep his shaggy hair and matted beard – Wynne might have been lumped together with those in the “pointy hat” in those days.

Not in Nigeria

But Nigeria is not Hopkins’ England. This is not 1961 when Joseph Tarka was detained for three weeks and charged with treason by the Crown for “inciting” the protests in Tiv land, only to be acquitted later for lack of evidence. 

It is not the Nigeria of 1962 when Chief Obafemi Awolowo was prosecuted for treasonable felony for purportedly working with Ghana to overthrow the government of Nigeria, a scandalous charge borne out of politics rather than law. 

Anthony Enahoro, a journalist’s journalist and scourge of the British government, was also jailed twice for sedition, once for an article mocking a former governor and then for another article “inciting Nigerian troops against the British army.” 

Then, he was deported from England as a “fugitive offender” and jailed a third time along with Awolowo for treasonable felony.

This is not the Nigeria of military president General Ibrahim Babangida, where human rights activists Gani Fawehinmi, Femi Falana, Beko Ransome-Kuti and Baba Omojola were hounded and imprisoned on the spurious charge of treason by a military government that had lost its way. It is not the Nigeria where Babangida deported sociology lecturer at Ahmadu Bello University (ABU) Patrick Wilmot for the “treasonable sin” of teaching what “he was not paid to teach.”

Or the one where General Sani Abacha hounded NADECO leaders, including President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for standing up to the extreme human rights abuses of that government.

In 2024?

This is 2024, with a government that parades some of the most well-known human rights figures up and down the corridors of power and even among the principal officers of the National Assembly. Where is this ghost of 17^th-century England coming from?

Let me be clear. Protest is not – and should not – be chaos and anarchy. The killing of protesters and police officers during the #EndBadGovernance protests in August, which left seven persons dead, the arson at the NCC building in Kano, the open calls for a military takeover, and the symbolic insinuation that Russian intervention was welcome are inexcusable.

The silence of some top politicians and leaders, especially from the North, fueled suspicions of complicity if not connivance. Yet, why add a third if two wrongs don’t make a right?

I don’t know what Intelligence is saying or the briefing President Tinubu is getting. Of course, he needs them. We need them, too, as citizens. No modern state can do without them. But in many countries, their job has become more valuable and sophisticated – and one might even say, often dangerously sophisticated – far beyond the voodoo of Hopkins’ witch-hunt in the east of England. 

Like Aziraphale and Cowley

For example, for decades in the US, and going back to the Vietnam War, through the Nixon years and the Cold War and even the destabilisation of Libya, the Intelligence services perpetrated some of the vilest acts in pursuit of the so-called enemies of the state, actually a mask for vendetta and a ladder for the ascendancy of the deep state. 

Like the angel Aziraphale and the demon Cowley in Good Omens, the good and bad guys in the security services have shared interests. They routinely collaborate for good and ill, sometimes at the state’s expense.

Take heed

Tinubu must take heed. He has a competent Attorney General and Minister of Justice in Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, who should advise him to tread softly. The history of our security services, especially the bad habits inherited from colonial rule and reinforced by the long years of military rule and entitled politicians, hasn’t changed much. 

It’s not the business of police officers, the state security service or special advisers to run the government. That’s not their job. They cannot abridge the people’s freedoms in a quest for ascendancy. Those who breach the law in exercising their liberty should not face the justice that reminds us of Hopkins’ England but a process consistent with modern progressive society, one that Tinubu was voted to uphold.

As the veteran journalist Owei Lakemfa said in his column last week, the danger is not so much the protesters, their sponsors or the witches in a coven somewhere. The biggest threat to the land is the hardship in plain sight, compounded by the lavish lifestyle of government officials and the lack of clarity about what is next. And the president doesn’t need Witchfinder General Hopkins to tell him.